<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Y6RMUMRRBNM3JHYVFHRW723ZNY-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-414590" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Y6RMUMRRBNM3JHYVFHRW723ZNY-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Y6RMUMRRBNM3JHYVFHRW723ZNY-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Y6RMUMRRBNM3JHYVFHRW723ZNY-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Y6RMUMRRBNM3JHYVFHRW723ZNY-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Y6RMUMRRBNM3JHYVFHRW723ZNY.jpg 960w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption>Paxlovid, a Pfizer&#8217;s coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pill, is seen manufactured in Ascoli, Italy, in this undated handout photo obtained by Reuters on November 16, 2021. Pfizer/Handout via REUTERS</figcaption></figure>



Jan 13 (Reuters) &#8211; Africa&#8217;s top public health body said it was in talks with Pfizer about securing supplies of its antiviral COVID-19 pills for the continent, the latest to join the race for a drug seen as a potential game changer in fighting the virus.



The Paxlovid medication was nearly 90% effective in preventing hospitalisations and deaths, and data suggested it retains its effectiveness against the Omicron variant, Pfizer has said.



&#8220;We are in really close discussions with Pfizer to see what can be done to make the drugs available on the continent and accessible on the continent, that is, the Paxlovid drugs,&#8221; said John Nkengasong, director of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.



Governments around the world are scrambling to buy Paxlovid, while Merck&#8217;s Molnupiravir has faced setbacks after disappointing trial data.



While vaccines have been governments&#8217; main weapon against COVID-19, there are hopes Merck and Pfizer&#8217;s experimental pills &#8211; taken at home rather than in hospital or medical centres &#8211; could be key in reducing the chances of dying or hospitalisation for those most at risk of severe illness.



Nkengasong said obtaining supplies of COVID-19 drugs was one of three key strategies for combating the pandemic in Africa in 2022, along with scaling up vaccinations and testing.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-read-more-pfizer-executives-say-covid-could-become-endemic-by-2024">Read more: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2021/pfizer-executives-say-covid-could-become-endemic-by-2024/" rel="sponsored nofollow">Pfizer executives say Covid could become endemic by 2024</a></h3>



Such drugs would be crucial if another highly transmissible variant were to emerge and public health systems become overwhelmed, he said.



&#8220;The only way to relieve that will be if we have drugs like Paxlovid where people can take that drug and stay home and get relief, and that way the burden and the constraints on the health system will be limited,&#8221; Nkengasong told an online news briefing.



While wealthy countries, including the United States and Britain, have secured deals to buy the pills, concerns have grown that low-income countries would lag in this effort due to tight supplies, as was the case in the scramble for vaccines.



The U.S. government&#8217;s contract for 10 million courses of the drug is priced at $530 per course, a price that would put it out of reach for many poorer countries.



To mitigate that issue, Pfizer has agreed to allow generic manufacturers to supply versions of the treatment to 95 low- and middle-income countries through a licensing agreement with international public health group Medicines Patent Pool (MPP).



Africa has officially recorded just over 10 million cases of COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic, although the real number is likely much higher due to patchy testing.



Nkengasong said 10% of Africans were fully vaccinated.



Addressing a separate briefing, a senior official from the World Health Organization&#8217;s Africa office said it appeared that a fourth infection wave on the continent driven by Omicron was flattening, marking the shortest surge in cases to date.



&#8220;It is (a) plateau &#8230; but we are careful and we are observing for the upcoming couple of weeks to make sure,&#8221; said the WHO regional emergency director Abdou Salam Gueye. 



(Writing by Estelle Shirbon; Editing by Angus MacSwan and Bernadette Baum)

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Africa joins race to acquire Pfizer’s COVID-19 Paxlovid pills

Robust and reliable vaccine capacity in Africa is a global public good, deserving of global support.



The start of a new year is often a time to reflect and reassess. As the pandemic stretches into its third year, apprehension over the health crisis and the associated economic uncertainties is proving hard to shake.



So, for anyone hoping to restore their sense of optimism, I have a simple recommendation:



Consider Africa



In early December, I travelled to the region—my first time since the COVID‑19 outbreak—and had the opportunity to visit Senegal and the Democratic Republic of Congo. I witnessed first-hand the creativity, energy, and entrepreneurial spirit that the region is bringing to bear in overcoming this crisis.



My visit to the Institut Pasteur in Dakar, in particular, was one of these inspirations. The Institut is already a world-class leader in the fight against infectious diseases, having attracted and trained international and regional specialists. Now, the staff there are leading the way to address Africa’s immediate COVID‑19 challenge. They are also building the region’s capacity to fight future pandemics and meet Africa’s more routine immunization needs.



It is critical the region has the tools and the necessary funds to build capacity to produce and manufacture vaccines. This need is especially acute given that the overall COVID vaccination rate on the continent is still below 10 percent. As Africa faces a fourth wave of infections, the emergence of the Omicron variant is yet another reminder that the region’s ability to equip itself to fight this pandemic and address future healthcare needs has global implications.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="800" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/FINAL-AFR-Vaccine-Production-Blog-Chart-1-800x800.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-414585" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/FINAL-AFR-Vaccine-Production-Blog-Chart-1-800x800.jpg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/FINAL-AFR-Vaccine-Production-Blog-Chart-1-300x300.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/FINAL-AFR-Vaccine-Production-Blog-Chart-1-90x90.jpg 90w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/FINAL-AFR-Vaccine-Production-Blog-Chart-1-768x768.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/FINAL-AFR-Vaccine-Production-Blog-Chart-1-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/FINAL-AFR-Vaccine-Production-Blog-Chart-1.jpg 1638w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-meeting-today-s-needs">Meeting today’s needs</h2>



Notwithstanding the impressive efforts of the Institut Pasteur, for now, Africa remains reliant on COVID‑19 vaccine imports and donations. The most immediate priority must be to guarantee predictability in vaccine deliveries—including through COVAX and the African Vaccine Acquisition Trust (AVAT). Funding will also be needed to ensure that Africa’s health systems can vaccinate the local population swiftly as new supplies arrive, including through outreach efforts to reiterate the importance of vaccines and reduce misinformation and vaccine hesitancy. Beyond vaccines, the region requires access to tests, treatments, and protective equipment.



Last year, IMF staff proposed a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2021/05/19/A-Proposal-to-End-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-460263">plan to end the pandemic</a>, by vaccinating 40 percent of the population of all countries by end-2021 and 70 percent** by mid-2022. Progress has been impressive, but the world must do better. The distribution of vaccines and other tools continues at two alarmingly different speeds. In Africa, for instance, only seven countries reached the 40 percent target in 2021 and, for many, the 70 percent target seems increasingly ambitious.



All of this will require further cooperation and support from the international community. Closing the $23 billion financing gap of the Access to COVID‑19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator, for example, would be a welcome first step, as a sizable portion of this effort is directed toward Africa. And progress toward vaccine equity is not just a matter of addressing vaccine supply; countries also need more support to strengthen ‘last mile’ delivery.



To be clear, this international support is not charity. This is a global public good! As we all know by now, no one is safe until everyone is safe.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="800" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Vaccine-Production-Blog-Chart-2-800x800.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-414586" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Vaccine-Production-Blog-Chart-2-800x800.jpeg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Vaccine-Production-Blog-Chart-2-300x300.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Vaccine-Production-Blog-Chart-2-90x90.jpeg 90w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Vaccine-Production-Blog-Chart-2-768x768.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Vaccine-Production-Blog-Chart-2-1536x1536.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Vaccine-Production-Blog-Chart-2.jpeg 1638w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Building resilience for the future</h2>



But we must not let efforts to meet urgent needs come at the expense of future needs. Boosting&nbsp;resilience&nbsp;for the future is also a priority—including the region’s capacity to provide for itself, against COVID‑19 or any other disease that may arise in the future. Without predictable and reliable vaccine supplies, for example, health authorities are often forced to react at short notice to accept doses, often with limited shelf lives, greatly complicating delivery logistics for already-stretched health systems. In short, true resilience in Africa cannot depend on the repeated generosity of the international community. It requires scaled-up&nbsp;local&nbsp;manufacturing capacity and strengthened regional supply chains.



Africa vaccinating Africa is necessary—and it is achievable.



Vaccine manufacturing is a sophisticated enterprise that requires specialized equipment, inputs, storage facilities, and skilled labor.&nbsp;But anyone who tells you that this cannot be done in Africa has not been paying attention.



The work of the Institut Pasteur in Dakar offers a glimpse of the region’s ambitions in the global effort against disease. With financial assistance from the United States, European Union, and international foundations—along with the savvy use of some of Senegal’s recent SDR allocation—construction of a new manufacturing facility is already underway. When complete, this will be one of the first start-to-finish factories on the continent, and a potentially critical component in Africa’s COVID‑19 and other vaccine supply.



And the Institut is far from the only center of excellence in the region—it is part of an impressive Africa-wide health and science community that is making an invaluable contribution to global health—including, most recently, discovering and sequencing the Omicron variant. Currently, there are 12 production facilities, either in operation or in the pipeline, across six African countries—Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Rwanda, Senegal, and South Africa—that are expected to produce a wide range of COVID‑19 vaccines.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Global public good</h2>



As we contemplate the new year, it is increasingly clear that a robust and reliable vaccine capacity in Africa is a global public good that deserves global support. For the current crisis or for future pandemics, we all have a stake in Africa’s success.



I have no doubt that Africa is up to the task. But the international community can—and must—help by stepping up cross-border collaboration in science; incentivizing technological transfers to better diversify the production of vaccines and other life-saving medical tools.



Louis Pasteur once said, “Science knows no country, because knowledge belongs to humanity, and is the torch which will illuminate the world.” The wisdom of Pasteur’s vision is more striking than ever. We must now all do our part to ensure that the fruits of our knowledge are shared swiftly and fairly, for the sake of all humanity.

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Support for Africa’s Vaccine Production is Good for the World

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/4TZQJMYTS5JFDKU6PKDJCTJYTU-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-414573" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/4TZQJMYTS5JFDKU6PKDJCTJYTU-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/4TZQJMYTS5JFDKU6PKDJCTJYTU-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/4TZQJMYTS5JFDKU6PKDJCTJYTU-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/4TZQJMYTS5JFDKU6PKDJCTJYTU-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/4TZQJMYTS5JFDKU6PKDJCTJYTU.jpg 960w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption>Medical staff treat a coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patient in their isolation room on the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) at Western Reserve Hospital in Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio, U.S., January 4, 2022. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) &#8211; A coronavirus pandemic which lasts five years, another pandemic in a decade, and ever more transmissible variants are among the scenarios life insurers are predicting after COVID-19 claims jumped more than expected in 2021.



The global life insurance industry was hit with reported claims due to COVID-19 of $5.5 billion in the first nine months of 2021 versus $3.5 billion for the whole of 2020, according to insurance broker Howden in a report on Jan 4, while the industry had expected lower payouts due to the rollout of vaccines.



&#8220;We definitely paid out more than I had anticipated at the beginning of last year,&#8221; said Hannover Re board member Klaus Miller.



The increase in claims was largely down to the emergence of the Delta variant, twice as transmissible, and more likely to cause hospitalisation than the original coronavirus strain.



<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/aegon-q3-operating-result-down-16-us-covid-linked-claims-2021-11-11">Claims rose most in the United States, India and South Africa</a> due to the more lethal variants and a rise in fatalities or illness among younger and unvaccinated groups.



Dutch insurer Aegon, which does two-thirds of its business in the United States, said its claims in the Americas in the third quarter were $111 million, up from $31 million a year earlier.



U.S. insurers MetLife and Prudential Financial also said life insurance claims rose. South Africa&#8217;s Old Mutual used up more of its pandemic provisions to pay claims and reinsurer Munich Re raised its 2021 estimate of COVID-19 life and health claims to 600 million euros from 400 million.



The long-term nature of life insurance products – often lasting 20 years or more – means premiums are not yet capturing the risk that deaths or long-term illness from COVID-19 will likely remain higher than previously estimated. Competition in the industry is also keeping a lid on premiums.



Actuaries say rising claims will be eating into the capital which insurers set aside to ensure solvency.



In the initial &#8220;shock&#8221; period of the pandemic in 2020, the insured U.S. population suffered 12% more deaths than average, according to research from life insurance trade association LIMRA shared with Reuters.



&#8220;For the insurance industry, that&#8217;s not huge because we have reserves,&#8221; said Marianne Purushotham, LIMRA&#8217;s chief actuary.



&#8220;We&#8217;re always trying to compare the new variant to the initial shock,&#8221; she said.



The impact for insurers in 2020 was more muted because deaths were mainly among older people who typically do not take out life insurance.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-crystal-ball-gazing">CRYSTAL BALL-GAZING</h2>



As the pandemic continues to surprise with the Omicron variant now becoming dominant, insurers, reinsurers and specialist risk modelling firms are looking to the future.



&#8220;We take into account the possibilities of more transmissible and less transmissible (variants),&#8221; Narges Dorratoltaj, scientist at modelling firm AIR said. &#8220;We cannot say specifically which path we are going to follow but we are trying to come up with the possible ranges to at least narrow down the possible outcomes.&#8221;



AIR is factoring in periodic lockdowns around the world and is also considering factoring in more uncertainty over whether governments will continue to impose restrictions to keep transmission rates low, and over individuals&#8217; willingness to obey them, Narges said.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Read more: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2021/south-africa-says-vaccines-prior-infection-help-mildness-of-covid-cases/">South Africa says vaccines, prior infection help mildness of COVID cases</a></h3>



Risk modelling firm RMS said its updated COVID-19 projection model allowed for variants, such as Omicron, which show elements of vaccine escape, as well as for variants which might evade vaccines.



Reinsurer Swiss Re said its pandemic model takes more than 20,000 different scenarios into account. It has been updating its risk model regularly with the latest data on testing, vaccination, infection, hospitalisation and fatality rates.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">HOW LONG, WHAT&#8217;S NEXT?</h2>



With the emergence of the even more transmissible Omicron, COVID-19 vaccine manufacturer Pfizer has said it does not expect the pandemic to subside to an endemic state globally until 2024.



AIR&#8217;s model anticipates that the pandemic, caused by a virus first identified in China in December 2019, could last five years.



Excess deaths could continue as the virus becomes endemic, similar to influenza which causes many deaths each year despite vaccines.



&#8220;We would expect to see some medium-term (impact on claims) of five to 10 years,&#8221; LIMRA’s Purushotham said.



More deaths or long-term illnesses will require insurers to set aside more reserves to pay claims, and may force them to raise premiums.



Insurance risk experts also say the opportunities for transmission between humans and animals, high levels of global travel, increased urbanisation and climate change impacts such as deforestation and disease-carrying mosquitoes mean pandemics could become more frequent.



&#8220;A new coronavirus outbreak is indeed likely in the near future &#8212; within the next 10 years,&#8221; said Brice Jabo, principal modeller, life risks, at RMS, referring to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreaks in the last two decades as early warnings.



The potential for any future corovanirus outbreak to again become a pandemic would depend on its transmissibility and the strength of measures to fight it, Jabo said.



Bruno Latourrette, chief knowledge officer of reinsurer SCOR Global Life, said he did not expect the next pandemic to be as devastating as COVID-19.



&#8220;COVID is&#8230;the perfect storm with pre-symptomatic contagiousness, a lethality that is not too high to lead to super-strong zero tolerance measures, a waning of immunity and high transmissibility&#8221;. 



(Editing by Elaine Hardcastle)

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Life insurers adapt pandemic risk models after claims jump

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="740" height="416" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106999933-1641975243790-gettyimages-1237017992-PR041221_LDN_7.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-414557" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106999933-1641975243790-gettyimages-1237017992-PR041221_LDN_7.jpeg 740w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106999933-1641975243790-gettyimages-1237017992-PR041221_LDN_7-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106999933-1641975243790-gettyimages-1237017992-PR041221_LDN_7-160x90.jpeg 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px" /><figcaption>People walk in Regent Street, in London. SOPA Images | LightRocket | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



LONDON — There are growing calls in Europe for Covid-19 to be treated as an endemic illness like the flu despite strong warnings from global health officials that the pandemic is far from over.



Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is the latest European leader to stick his head above the parapet by suggesting that it’s time to re-evaluate Covid. He called on the EU to debate the possibility of&nbsp;treating the virus as an endemic illness.



“The situation is not what we faced a year ago,” Sánchez said in a radio interview with Spain’s Cadena SER on Monday as Spanish school children returned to their classrooms after the holidays.



“I think we have to evaluate the evolution of Covid to an endemic illness, from the pandemic we have faced up until now,” he added. Sanchez said it was time to open the debate around a gradual re-appraisal of the pandemic “at the technical level and at the level of health professionals, but also at the European level.”



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-read-more-pfizer-executives-say-covid-could-become-endemic-by-2024">Read more: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2021/pfizer-executives-say-covid-could-become-endemic-by-2024/">Pfizer executives say Covid could become endemic by 2024</a></h3>



Sanchez’s comments mark something of a departure from fellow leaders on the continent, however, with most of them focused on the immediate challenge of tackling alarming numbers of Covid cases caused by the omicron variant, which is highly infectious but widely appearing to cause less severe illness more akin to a cold than the flu symptoms seen with earlier variants.



France, for example, has been reporting over 300,000 new daily cases in recent days and Germany reported 80,430 new infections on Wednesday, the highest recorded in a single day since the pandemic began, according to Reuters.



Sanchez’s comments echo those made in the U.K. by politicians last year with Prime Minister Boris Johnson telling the British public that they would have to “learn to live with the virus.”

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Should we treat Covid like the flu? Europe is slowly starting to think so

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="740" height="416" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106998819-1641814100487-gettyimages-1237626940-Protest_Over_Compulsory_Vaccination_In_Brussels.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-414539" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106998819-1641814100487-gettyimages-1237626940-Protest_Over_Compulsory_Vaccination_In_Brussels.jpeg 740w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106998819-1641814100487-gettyimages-1237626940-Protest_Over_Compulsory_Vaccination_In_Brussels-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106998819-1641814100487-gettyimages-1237626940-Protest_Over_Compulsory_Vaccination_In_Brussels-160x90.jpeg 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px" /><figcaption>Demonstrators holds a banner with ‘Covid slave ticket’ written while they protest against the compulsory vaccination campaign against SARSCoV2, Belgium. Thierry Monasse | Getty Images News | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



New research from the organizers of the annual Davos gatherings in the Swiss Alps warns of inequalities stemming from the coronavirus pandemic that could flare domestic and cross-border tensions around the world.



This year’s Global Risks Report by the World Economic Forum describes a “global divergence” — where poorer nations have much lower Covid-19 vaccination rates and , therefore, face more prolonged economic troubles.



“Covid-19 and its economic and societal consequences continue to pose a critical threat to the world. Vaccine inequality and a resultant uneven economic recovery risk compounding social fractures and geopolitical tensions,” WEF said in the report published Tuesday.



“The resulting global divergence will create tensions — within and across borders — that risk worsening the pandemic’s cascading impacts and complicating the coordination needed to tackle common challenges.”



Aside from the catastrophic death toll, one of the most immediate impacts of the coronavirus pandemic has been the ensuing rise in inequality, many economists have said. They’ve noted that many people have faced job insecurity or haven’t had the means to attend online education due to lockdowns.



Richer countries have had earlier access to Covid-19 vaccines and many are already administering their third, or even forth, doses of the vaccine to their citizens. Meanwhile, poorer countries are struggling to see their populations receive even a first dose.



In Ethiopia, only 1.3% of people are fully vaccinated against Covid. In Nigeria, this number is 2.1%, according to Our World in Data. By comparison, in the U.S., 62% of Americans are fully vaccinated. In the United Arab Emirates and Portugal, this number is at around 90%.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Read more: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2021/imf-chief-says-omicron-could-dent-global-economic-growth/">IMF chief says Omicron could dent global economic growth</a></h3>



“There is a major concern about livelihood crises — that’s actually number two on this list, so big concern around jobs and what’s happening in the labor market,” Saadia Zahidi, managing director at the World Economic Forum, said about the outcome of the Global Risks Report.



Speaking to CNBC’s Julianna Tatelbaum, she added: “There is that concern around mental health crises and that adds to the erosion of social cohesion, for example there are 53 million new cases of depression especially due to Covid.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-gloomy-prospects"><a></a>Gloomy prospects</h2>



In the report, nearly 1,000 global experts and leaders from academia, business, civil society, government and other organizations, said that societal risks “have worsened the most since the pandemic began.”



These specific risks included social cohesion and mental health deterioration.



In addition, only 16% of respondents said they feel positive and optimistic about the outlook for the world. Furthermore, only 11% said they believed the global recovery will accelerate.



The International Monetary Fund estimated back in October a global growth rate of 5.9% for 2021 and 4.9% for 2022. These forecasts were done before concerns emerged over a new Covid-19 variant, known as omicron.



Since then, the IMF has admitted that these numbers might be revised down because of new restrictions. However, the institution has said that vaccination will remain critical to boost economic performance all over the world.



“We have been screaming from the top of a mountain that [the] pandemic is the greatest risk to the global economy. And we have been advocating very strongly to vaccinate the world. Progress is made, not enough,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told CNBC in December.

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WEF report warns of Covid inequalities fueling social tensions across the globe

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="740" height="416" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106999263-1641855626749-bour.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-414522" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106999263-1641855626749-bour.jpg 740w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106999263-1641855626749-bour-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106999263-1641855626749-bour-160x90.jpg 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px" /><figcaption>Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla talks during a press conference with European Commission President after a visit to oversee the production of the Pfizer-BioNtech Covid-19 vaccine at the factory of US pharmaceutical company Pfizer, in Puurs, on April 23, 2021. John Thys | AFP | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla on Monday said two doses of the company’s vaccine may not provide strong protection against infection from the omicron Covid variant, and the original shots have also lost some of their efficacy at preventing hospitalization.



Bourla, in an interview at J.P. Morgan’s healthcare conference, emphasized the importance of a third shot to boost people’s protection against omicron.



“The two doses, they’re not enough for omicron,” Bourla said. “The third dose of the current vaccine is providing quite good protection against deaths, and decent protection against hospitalizations.”



Bourla said omicron is a more difficult target than previous variants. Omicron, which has dozens of mutations, can evade some of the protection provided by Pfizer’s original two shots.



“We have seen with a second dose very clearly that the first thing that we lost was the protection against infections,” Bourla said. “But then two months later, what used to be very strong in hospitalization also went down. And I think this is what everybody’s worried about.”



Real-world data from the United Kingdom has found that two vaccine doses are 52% effective at preventing hospitalization 25 weeks after receiving the second shot, according to data from the U.K. Health Security Agency.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-read-more-pfizer-executives-say-covid-could-become-endemic-by-2024">Read more: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2021/pfizer-executives-say-covid-could-become-endemic-by-2024/">Pfizer executives say Covid could become endemic by 2024</a></h3>



Two-doses of Pfizer or Moderna’s vaccines are only about 10% effective at preventing infection from omicron 20 weeks after the second dose, according to the U.K. data.



A booster dose, on the other hand, is up to 75% effective at preventing symptomatic infection and 88% effective at preventing hospitalization, according to the data.



However, Bourla said it’s unclear how long a booster dose will provide protection against Covid. The U.K. Health Security Agency also found that boosters are only 40% to 50% effective against infection 10 weeks after receiving the shot.



“The question mark, it is how long that protection lasts with the third dose,” Bourla said.



The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now recommending that some people with compromised immune systems receive four shots, three primary doses and one booster. Israel has rolled out fourth Pfizer doses for people over the age of 60. Israel found that fourth doses increase protective antibodies fivefold.



Bourla told CNBC earlier Monday that Pfizer will have a vaccine that specifically targets omicron ready in March, though he said it’s not clear whether it will be needed or not.



Bourla also told CNBC more tests need to be done to determine whether or not fourth doses are necessary.

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Pfizer CEO says two Covid vaccine doses aren’t ‘enough for omicron’

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="479" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106998467-1641582068040-gettyimages-1237588379-AFP_9VR3ZP-820x479.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-414514" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106998467-1641582068040-gettyimages-1237588379-AFP_9VR3ZP-820x479.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106998467-1641582068040-gettyimages-1237588379-AFP_9VR3ZP-300x175.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106998467-1641582068040-gettyimages-1237588379-AFP_9VR3ZP-154x90.jpeg 154w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106998467-1641582068040-gettyimages-1237588379-AFP_9VR3ZP-768x449.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106998467-1641582068040-gettyimages-1237588379-AFP_9VR3ZP-1536x897.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106998467-1641582068040-gettyimages-1237588379-AFP_9VR3ZP-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption>Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



Moderna is working on a booster shot that will target the omicron variant of Covid for this fall as nations around the world prepare to distribute annual vaccinations against the virus.



“We are discussing with public health leaders around the world to decide what we think is the best strategy for the potential booster for the fall of 2022. We believe it will contain omicron,” CEO Stephane Bancel told CNBC’s Squawk Box.



Bancel said the omicron specific booster will enter clinical trials soon, and Moderna is discussing whether the shot needs to contain any other components to fight the virus.



“We need to be careful to try to stay ahead of a virus and not behind the virus,” Bancel said.



Moderna has signed advanced purchase agreements with upfront payments worth $18.5 billion with the United Kingdom, South Korea, Switzerland recently ordering shots for this fall. Bancel said Moderna can supply 2 billion to 3 billion booster doses this year.



“There are discussions ongoing on a daily basis. We want to be ready with the best product possible for the fall of ’22,” Bancel said.



Real-world data from the United Kingdom has shown that boosters are up to 75% effective at protecting against symptomatic infection from omicron, according to a recent study from the U.K. Health Security Agency.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-read-more-omicron-covid-variant-likely-circulating-for-longer-and-more-widely-than-thought-experts-say">Read more: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2021/omicron-covid-variant-likely-circulating-for-longer-and-more-widely-than-thought-experts-say/">Omicron Covid variant likely circulating for longer — and more widely — than thought, experts say</a></h3>



The original two-dose vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer, on the other hand, are only about 10% effective at preventing symptomatic infection 20 weeks after the second dose, according to the study. However, the original two doses still provide good protection against severe illness.



The world is currently suffering from an unprecedented wave of infection due to omicron, which has dozens of mutations that allow it to avoid the immune protection induced by the original shots. The World Health Organization has said that omicron is spreading faster than any other previous variant of the virus.



The WHO has set a goal of vaccinating 70% of every nation’s population by the middle of this year. The global health body has been critical of wealthy nations rolling out broad booster campaigns, urging world leaders to focus on making sure as many people as possible around the world, particularly in low-income nations, have received the initial shots.



Bancel said the supply of vaccines was constrained for most of 2021 but that is no longer the case. The main challenge now is distribution, or actually getting those shots into people’s arms. Bancel said Moderna had between 50 million and 100 million doses waiting for shipment to low-income countries on any given day in November.



“There’s been a lot of issues on the distribution and deployment of those vaccines,” Bancel said.



The Moderna CEO said the African Union decided to turn down 60 million doses the company reserved for the continent for the second quarter.



“The reason for that is between the Covax orders, the donations from Europe, the donations from China, the donations from the U.S. government. They have way more vaccine that they need to get to the 70% vaccination rates in those countries,” Bancel said.



Covax is an international initiative led by the WHO and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations to speed up the manufacture and development of Covid vaccines and guarantee equal access for countries around the world.

106998467-1641582068040-gettyimages-1237588379-AFP_9VR3ZP

Moderna working with world health leaders on Covid booster that targets omicron for this fall, CEO says

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="740" height="416" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106998810-1641813085559-gettyimages-1237592684-INDIA_PCR_LAB.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-414510" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106998810-1641813085559-gettyimages-1237592684-INDIA_PCR_LAB.jpeg 740w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106998810-1641813085559-gettyimages-1237592684-INDIA_PCR_LAB-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106998810-1641813085559-gettyimages-1237592684-INDIA_PCR_LAB-160x90.jpeg 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px" /><figcaption>Covid lab technicians in India on Friday Jan. 7, 2022. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Global health experts are casting doubts over reports of a new possible Covid-19 mutation that appeared to be a combination of both the delta and omicron variants, dubbed as “deltacron,” saying it’s more likely that the “strain” is the result of a lab processing error.



At the weekend it was reported that a researcher in Cyprus had discovered the potential new variant. Bloomberg News said Saturday that Leondios Kostrikis, professor of biological sciences at the University of Cyprus, had called the strain “deltacron,” because of its omicron-like genetic signatures within the delta genomes.



Kostrikis and his team said they had found 25 cases of the mutation, with the report adding that at the time it was too early to tell whether there were more cases of the apparent new strain or what impact it could have. Bloomberg reported that the findings had been sent to Gisaid, an international database that tracks changes in the virus, on Jan. 7.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-deltacron-not-real">Deltacron ‘not real’</h2>



Some experts have since cast doubt over the findings, with one World Health Organization official tweeting Sunday that “deltacron,” which was trending on the social media platform on the weekend, is “not real” and “is likely due to sequencing artifact,” a variation introduced by a nonbiological process.



WHO Covid expert Dr. Krutika Kuppalli said on Twitter that, in this case, there was likely to have been a “lab contamination of Omicron fragments in a Delta specimen.”



In another tweet, she noted wryly, “Let’s not merge of names of infectious diseases and leave it to celebrity couples”



Other scientists have agreed that the findings could be the result of a lab error, with virologist Dr. Tom Peacock from Imperial College London also tweeting that “the Cypriot ‘Deltacron’ sequences reported by several large media outlets look to be quite clearly contamination.”



In another tweet, he noted that “quite a few of us have had a look at the sequences and come to the same conclusion it doesn’t look like a real recombinant,” referring to a possible rearrangement of genetic material.



Fatima Tokhmafshan, a geneticist at the Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre in Montreal, agreed, tweeting that “this is NOT a recombinant” but “rather lab contamination b/c [because] looking at recent GISAID submission from Cyprus the clustering &amp; mutational profile indicate NO mutation consensus.”



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Read more: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2021/omicron-covid-variant-likely-circulating-for-longer-and-more-widely-than-thought-experts-say/">Omicron Covid variant likely circulating for longer — and more widely — than thought, experts say</a></h3>



Another high-profile scientist, Dr. Boghuma Kabisen Titanji, an infectious diseases expert at Emory University in Atlanta, advised a cautionary approach, tweeting Sunday that “On the #deltacron story, just because I have been asked about it many times in the last 24h, please interpret with caution. The information currently available is pointing to contamination of a sample as opposed to true recombination of #delta and #omicron variants.”



However, she also noted that a possible mixing of the genetic material belonging to the delta and omicron variants is a possibility as both strains continue to circulate, and is a concerning proposition.



“Recombination can occur in coronaviruses. The enzyme that replicates their genome has a tendency to slip-off the RNA strand it is copying and then rejoining where it left off. With #delta and #omicron both in circulation, dual infection with both variants increases this concern,” she tweeted.



For his part, the scientist who announced he had discovered “deltacron” has defended his findings, telling Bloomberg on Sunday that the findings are not the result of a “technical error.”



In an emailed statement, Kostrikis said the cases he has identified “indicate an evolutionary pressure to an ancestral strain to acquire these mutations and not a result of a single recombination event.”

106998810-1641813085559-gettyimages-1237592684-INDIA_PCR_LAB

Experts cast doubts over reported ‘deltacron’ variant, say likely due to lab contamination

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="553" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/645QSNVIZZIOHA7KRDZJNBZPGU-820x553.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-414424" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/645QSNVIZZIOHA7KRDZJNBZPGU-820x553.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/645QSNVIZZIOHA7KRDZJNBZPGU-300x202.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/645QSNVIZZIOHA7KRDZJNBZPGU-133x90.jpg 133w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/645QSNVIZZIOHA7KRDZJNBZPGU-768x518.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/645QSNVIZZIOHA7KRDZJNBZPGU-1536x1036.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/645QSNVIZZIOHA7KRDZJNBZPGU-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption>FILE PHOTO: John Nkengasong, Africa&#8217;s Director of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), speaks during an interview with Reuters at the African Union (AU) Headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia March 11, 2020. Picture taken March 11, 2020. REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Jan 6 (Reuters) &#8211; Africa&#8217;s top public health official said on Thursday that severe lockdowns were no longer the best way to contain COVID-19, praising South Africa for adopting that approach when responding to its latest infection wave driven by the Omicron variant.



&#8220;We are very encouraged with what we saw in South Africa during this period where they look at the data in terms of severity (of infections),&#8221; John Nkengasong, director of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), told a news conference.



&#8220;The period where we are using severe lockdowns as a tool is over. We should actually be looking at how we use public health and social measures more carefully and in a balanced way as the vaccination increases.&#8221;



South Africa experienced a steep rise in COVID-19 infections from late November, around the time it alerted the world to Omicron, with new infections peaking in mid-December at an all-time record.



But new cases have since fallen back, and the government did not resort to strict restrictions as it did during previous infection waves given early signs that the bulk of Omicron infections had been mild. It even loosened rules before New Year&#8217;s Eve.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-read-more-pfizer-executives-say-covid-could-become-endemic-by-2024">Read more: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2021/pfizer-executives-say-covid-could-become-endemic-by-2024/">Pfizer executives say Covid could become endemic by 2024</a></h3>



Nkengasong added that he feared that COVID-19 could become endemic on the continent given the slow pace of vaccination &#8211; a prospect many global scientists already talk of as a given.



&#8220;Unless &#8230; by the end of this year the continent actually scales up its vaccination to above 70% or 80%, my worry is that we might &#8230; be into a scenario where COVID becomes endemic,&#8221; he said.



Experts believe COVID-19 cannot be eliminated and will likely become endemic, meaning it will always be present in the population to some degree, such as the flu or chickenpox.



Less than 10% of Africa&#8217;s population has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, the latest Africa CDC figures show, with many countries initially struggling to access sufficient shots and later battling to get them into arms.



There has been a 36% average increase in new cases reported in Africa over the last 4 weeks, with an 8% average increase in new deaths. 



(Editing by Alison Williams and Nick Macfie)

FILE PHOTO: John Nkengasong, Africa’s Director of the Centers for Disease Control, speaks during an interview with Reuters at the African Union Headquarters in Addis Ababa

Africa CDC says severe lockdowns no longer tool to contain COVID-19

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="740" height="416" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106856739-1616173513013-2021-01-21T215821Z_1680369366_RC2LCL9VIIQA_RTRMADP_3_USA-BIDEN.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-414416" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106856739-1616173513013-2021-01-21T215821Z_1680369366_RC2LCL9VIIQA_RTRMADP_3_USA-BIDEN.jpg 740w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106856739-1616173513013-2021-01-21T215821Z_1680369366_RC2LCL9VIIQA_RTRMADP_3_USA-BIDEN-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106856739-1616173513013-2021-01-21T215821Z_1680369366_RC2LCL9VIIQA_RTRMADP_3_USA-BIDEN-160x90.jpg 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px" /><figcaption>NIH National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci addresses the daily press briefing at the White House in Washington, January 21, 2021. Jonathan Ernst | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci on Wednesday said a growing body of data indicates that the Covid omicron variant is less severe than the delta strain, but cautioned that hospitals could still face stress through the unprecedented number of new infections sweeping across the U.S.



“Multiple sources of now-preliminary data indicate a decrease severity with omicron,” Fauci told the public during a Covid update from the White House response team. “However, we really do need more definitive assessment of severity with longer-term follow up here and in different countries.”



Fauci cited a study from Ontario, Canada, that found the risk of hospitalization or death was 65% lower among people infected with omicron compared with individuals who caught delta. The risk of admission to an intensive care unit or death from omicron was 83% lower, according to the study.



Fauci also pointed to a study from South Africa that found about 5% of infections during the omicron wave resulted in hospital admission, compared with 14% during delta. Patients admitted to the hospital during the omicron wave were 73% less likely to have severe disease compared with the delta wave, according to the data.



Fauci said the lung infection from omicron appears less severe than previous variants, citing recent animal studies of mice and hamsters.



“It was shown that the virus of omicron proliferates very well in the upper airway and bronchi, but actually very poorly in the lungs,” Fauci said. While this does not definitively prove omicron is more mild, it is consistent with the variant transmitting very quickly but causing less severe lung infections,” he said.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-read-more-omicron-poses-very-high-global-risk-world-must-prepare-who">Read more: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2021/omicron-poses-very-high-global-risk-world-must-prepare-who/">Omicron poses “very high” global risk, world must prepare -WHO</a></h3>



Fauci said the omicron variant also appears less severe for children when compared with delta. However, he cautioned that hospitalizations are rising among kids, mostly the unvaccinated, because omicron is so contagious. He urged parents of children ages 5 to 17 make sure their kids are immunized against Covid.



Fauci warned that even if omicron proves less severe, the variant is spreading so quickly that it could still produce a large number of patients who do require hospital care, straining the nation’s health-care system.



The U.S. reported more than 869,000 new Covid infections on Tuesday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The nation is reporting a seven-day average of more than 553,000 new infections every day, more than double the previous week and a pandemic record, according to a CNBC analysis of data from Johns Hopkins.



“A certain proportion of a large volume of cases no matter what are going to be severe,” Fauci said. “So don’t take this as a signal that we can pull back from the recommendations.”



About 110,000 Americans are hospitalized with Covid, according to a seven-day average of data from the Department of Health and Human Services as of Wednesday, up 39% over the past week. Though rising sharply, that figure is still below peak levels seen during last winter’s surge, when hospitalizations topped 137,000 in early January 2021.



Fauci cautioned against complacency, urging the public to follow public health guidance by getting vaccinated, boosted and wearing a mask.

106856739-1616173513013-2021-01-21T215821Z_1680369366_RC2LCL9VIIQA_RTRMADP_3_USA-BIDEN

Fauci says multiple preliminary studies find omicron is less severe than delta

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="740" height="416" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/106913464-1626783928878-gettyimages-1233680604-AVDjune7.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-410942" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/106913464-1626783928878-gettyimages-1233680604-AVDjune7.jpeg 740w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/106913464-1626783928878-gettyimages-1233680604-AVDjune7-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/106913464-1626783928878-gettyimages-1233680604-AVDjune7-140x80.jpeg 140w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px" /><figcaption>In this Photo illustration a World Health Organization(WHO) logo seen displayed on an Android phone.
Avishek Das | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



GENEVA &#8211; More evidence is emerging that the Omicron coronavirus variant is affecting the upper respiratory tract, causing milder symptoms than previous variants, a World Health Organization official said on Tuesday.



&#8220;We are seeing more and more studies pointing out that Omicron is infecting the upper part of the body. Unlike the other ones, that could cause severe pneumonia,&#8221; WHO Incident Manager Abdi Mahamud told Geneva-based journalists, saying it could be &#8220;good news&#8221;.



However, he added that Omicron&#8217;s high transmissibility means it will become dominant within weeks in many places, posing a threat in countries where a high portion of the population remains unvaccinated.



His remarks on the reduced risks of severe disease chime with other data including a study from South Africa which was one of the first countries where Omicron was detected.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-read-more-officials-offer-vaccine-reassurance-who-advises-against-travel-bans">Read more: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2021/officials-offer-vaccine-reassurance-who-advises-against-travel-bans/">Officials offer vaccine reassurance; WHO advises against travel bans</a></h3>



However, Mahamud also sounded a note of caution, calling South Africa an &#8220;outlier&#8221; since it has a young population among other factors.



Asked about whether an Omicron-specific vaccine was needed, Mahamud said it was too early to say but stressed that the decision required global coordination and should not be left to the commercial sector to decide alone.



Earlier this week, Division of Medical Virology and Groote Schuur Complex of the National Health Laboratory Service Dr Marvin Hsiao said, “Covid-19 cases in South Africa are declining overall as we have passed the peak.



“However, the reduced testing over the last week and the gathering over the festive season can still have an impact on the epidemic trajectory. If there is a resurgence of infections from New Year celebrations we would expect to see an increase in cases in the next 10 days and hospitalisations in the week after.”

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Omicron’s high transmissibility means it will ’become dominant within weeks’

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="740" height="416" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106992497-1640125861088-gettyimages-1360262889-_em18909_20211221123642770.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-414396" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106992497-1640125861088-gettyimages-1360262889-_em18909_20211221123642770.jpeg 740w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106992497-1640125861088-gettyimages-1360262889-_em18909_20211221123642770-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/106992497-1640125861088-gettyimages-1360262889-_em18909_20211221123642770-160x90.jpeg 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px" /><figcaption>A COVID-19 vaccination card holder is handed out at a pop-up COVID-19 vaccination clinic at Larry Flynt’s Hustler Club on December 21, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Ethan Miller | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



If 2021 was the year of vaccine development, 2022 will be a year marked by vaccinations and booster shots, according to a leading expert.



“2022 will be the year of vaccination — either primary for people who haven’t been vaccinated, or booster vaccinations for those of us who have,” said Jerome Kim, director general of the International Vaccine Institute, an independent non-profit devoted to research on vaccines for poor countries.



Hopefully, it will also mark the year when anti-Covid drugs will come to the fore, and make treatment more effective, Kim told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Monday.



In late December, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized two antiviral pills to treat Covid-19 for emergency use, marking a milestone in the battle against the coronavirus that has killed more than 5.4 million people worldwide since emerging in late 2019.



Pfizer’s Covid oral treatment pill, called Paxlovid, was the first oral antiviral drug to be cleared for emergency use in the U.S. Another was Merck’s antiviral pill — known as molnupiravir — which was approved for use in adults with mild to moderate Covid at risk of severe disease.



As 2021 drew to a close, the more-transmissible omicron variant emerged, and cases around the world have surged in recent weeks.



Last week, the caseload in the U.S. hit a record high. Nationwide daily new cases were at a record seven-day average of more than 265,000 as of Tuesday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. It surpassed the previous high mark of about 252,000 average daily cases set on Jan. 11 last year, the data showed.



In Asia, South Korea said Friday that it will extend restrictions after a surge in serious Covid infections.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-getting-vaccines-to-those-who-need-it"><a></a>Getting vaccines to those who need it</h2>



The key priority in 2022 is getting vaccines to people who need it — especially those in poorer countries who have limited access to them, Kim said.



“A really critical point to make — omicron is not the omega and we are going to see additional mutants and variants of concern, and hopefully we become more equitable in the use of vaccines,” he said.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Read more: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2021/officials-offer-vaccine-reassurance-who-advises-against-travel-bans/">Officials offer vaccine reassurance; WHO advises against travel bans</a></h3>



“Increasingly, supply [of vaccines] will not be the issue. The issue will be: Who can get that vaccine into the arms of people who need the vaccination. That’s going to be the key for 2022, it’s getting people vaccinated,” Kim said, adding there’s a “significant number of people” in low income countries, who have not received a single vaccine dose.



About 58.3% of the world’s population has received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine, but only 8.5% of people in low income countries have been inoculated with at least one dose, according to Our World in Data.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>World must tackle ‘diagnostics gap’</h2>



Kim also highlighted a so-called “diagnostics gap” at the diagnosis stage of Covid-19.



“That implies that in lower income countries, they don’t do as many tests and they definitely don’t do as many sequences,” he said. Such genomic sequencing efforts of coronavirus case samples help track new variants.



He added that countries need to get “much better at addressing” such a divide.



“It’s the sequencing of variants from all over the world that allow scientists to know if a new worrisome variant is emerging,” Kim said. “Getting on top of it as quickly as possible is key if we want to open up, because we know that air travel does fairly efficiently spread the coronavirus.”

106992497-1640125861088-gettyimages-1360262889-_em18909_20211221123642770

2022 will be the ‘year of vaccination,’ says director of vaccine institute

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="740" height="416" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/106446181-1584374084821gettyimages-1206555421.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-414383" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/106446181-1584374084821gettyimages-1206555421.jpeg 740w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/106446181-1584374084821gettyimages-1206555421-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/106446181-1584374084821gettyimages-1206555421-160x90.jpeg 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px" /><figcaption>World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus talks during a daily press briefing on COVID-19 virus at the WHO headquaters in Geneva on March 11, 2020. Fabrice Coffrini | AFP | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



The World Health Organization warned Wednesday that new coronavirus variants could emerge during the pandemic that render the current vaccines useless.



“As this pandemic drags on, it’s possible that new variants could evade our countermeasures and become fully resistant to current vaccines or past infection, necessitating vaccine adaptations,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a press conference in Geneva.



Tedros sounded that alarm as Covid cases hit record highs in many nations, including in the U.S. The latest surge, coming more than 21 months after WHO first declared Covid a pandemic, is fueled by the spread of the new and highly transmissible omicron variant.



Tedros reiterated his frequent calls for nations to work together to improve global supplies and access to Covid vaccines and other crucial health equipment.



He also slammed the “populism” and “short-term nationalism” of some political leaders that he said has “undermined equity and created the ideal conditions for the emergence of new variants.”



“Misinformation and disinformation, often spread by a small number of people, have been a constant distraction undermining science and trust in lifesaving health tools,” the world health leader said.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-read-more-world-faces-an-anxious-wait-as-covid-vaccine-makers-prepare-for-omicron-variant">Read more: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2021/world-faces-an-anxious-wait-as-covid-vaccine-makers-prepare-for-omicron-variant/">World faces an anxious wait as Covid vaccine makers prepare for omicron variant</a></h3>



He noted that “in the huge waves of cases currently seen in Europe and in many countries around the world, misinformation which has driven vaccine hesitancy is now translating to the unvaccinated disproportionately dying.”



Covid vaccines such as Pfizer and BioNTech’s shots are still effective at preventing severe disease from omicron, experts say, but they are much less effective at preventing infection from omicron. Booster shots, on the other hand, significantly increase protection from symptomatic disease caused by omicron.



If a vaccine-resistant strain of the virus emerges, manufacturers will have to tweak their shots, which “would potentially mean a new supply shortage,” Tedros warned Wednesday.



It is important for nations to build up their local manufacturing supply of vaccines before that happens, he said.



“This virus will continue to evolve and threaten our health system if we don’t improve the collective response,” Tedros said. “I’m highly concerned that omicron, being more transmissible, circulating at the same time as delta, is leading to a tsunami of cases.”



Vaccine supplies are currently improving, he said, while repeating his criticism that rich countries’ booster-shot programs are making it harder for poor nations to obtain any vaccines. That growing inequity could prolong the pandemic.



Despite the ongoing public-health threat and the possibility of future challenges, Tedros said he is “optimistic” the acute stage of the pandemic can end in 2022.

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WHO warns new Covid variants could emerge that are fully resistant to vaccines as pandemic drags on

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="740" height="416" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/106991065-1639767426813-gettyimages-1237291853-AFP_9UV2NC.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-414369" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/106991065-1639767426813-gettyimages-1237291853-AFP_9UV2NC.jpg 740w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/106991065-1639767426813-gettyimages-1237291853-AFP_9UV2NC-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/106991065-1639767426813-gettyimages-1237291853-AFP_9UV2NC-160x90.jpg 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px" /><figcaption>A man receives a nasal swab during a test for Covid-19 at a street-side testing booth in New York on December 17, 2021. Ed Jones | AFP | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



U.S. health officials on Monday cut isolation restrictions for Americans who catch the coronavirus from 10 to five days, and similarly shortened the time that close contacts need to quarantine.



Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials said the guidance is in keeping with growing evidence that people with the coronavirus are most infectious in the two days before and three days after symptoms develop.



The decision also was driven by a recent surge in Covid-19 cases, propelled by the omicron variant.



Early research suggests omicron may cause milder illnesses than earlier versions of the coronavirus. But the sheer number of people becoming infected — and therefore having to isolate or quarantine — threatens to crush the ability of hospitals, airlines and other businesses to stay open, experts say.



CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said the country is about to see a lot of omicron cases.



“Not all of those cases are going to be severe. In fact many are going to be asymptomatic,” she told The Associated Press on Monday. “We want to make sure there is a mechanism by which we can safely continue to keep society functioning while following the science.”



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Read more: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2021/imf-chief-says-omicron-could-dent-global-economic-growth/">IMF chief says Omicron could dent global economic growth</a></h3>



Last week, the agency loosened rules that previously called on health care workers to stay out of work for 10 days if they test positive. The new recommendations said workers could go back to work after seven days if they test negative and don’t have symptoms. And the agency said isolation time could be cut to five days, or even fewer, if there are severe staffing shortages.



Now, the CDC is changing the isolation and quarantine guidance for the general public to be even less stringent.



The guidance is not a mandate; it’s a recommendation to employers and state and local officials. Last week, New York state said it would expand on the CDC’s guidance for health-care workers to include employees who have other critical jobs that are facing a severe staffing shortage.



It’s possible other states will seek to shorten their isolation and quarantine policies, and CDC is trying to get out ahead of the shift. “It would be helpful to have uniform CDC guidance” that others could draw from, rather than a mishmash of policies, Walensky said.



The CDC’s guidance on isolation and quarantine has seemed confusing to the public, and the new recommendations are “happening at a time when more people are testing positive for the first time and looking for guidance,” said Lindsay Wiley, an American University public health law expert.



Nevertheless, the guidance continues to be complex.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-isolation"><a></a>Isolation</h2>



The isolation rules are for people who are infected. They are the same for people who are unvaccinated, partly vaccinated, fully vaccinated or boosted.



They say:



—The clock starts the day you test positive.



—An infected person should go into isolations for five days, instead of the previously recommended 10.



—At the end of five days, if you have no symptoms, you can return to normal activities but must wear a mask everywhere — even at home around others — for at least five more days.



—If you still have symptoms after isolating for five days, stay home until you feel better and then start your five days of wearing a mask at all times.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-quarantine"><a></a>Quarantine</h2>



The quarantine rules are for people who were in close contact with an infected person but not infected themselves.



For quarantine, the clock starts the day someone is alerted to they may have been exposed to the virus.



Previously, the CDC said people who were not fully vaccinated and who came in close contact with an infected person should stay home for at least 10 days.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Read more: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2021/new-covid-19-vaccine-rule-catches-many-kenyans-by-surprise/">New COVID-19 vaccine rule catches many Kenyans by surprise</a></h3>



Now the agency is saying only people who got booster shots can skip quarantine if they wear masks in all settings for at least 10 days.



That’s a change. Previously, people who were fully vaccinated — which the CDC has defined as having two doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, or one dose of the Johnson &amp; Johnson vaccine — could be exempt from quarantine.



Now, people who got their initial shots but not boosters are in the same situation as those who are partly vaccinated or are not vaccinated at all: They can stop quarantine after five days if they wear masks in all settings for five days afterward.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-five-days"><a></a>Five Days</h2>



Suspending both isolation and quarantine after five days is not without risk.



A lot of people get tested when they first feel symptoms, but many Americans get tested for others reasons, like to see if they can visit family or for work. That means a positive test result may not reveal exactly when a person was infected or give a clear picture of when they are most contagious, experts say.



When people get infected, the risk of spread drops substantially after five days, but it does not disappear for everyone, said Dr. Aaron Glatt, a New York physician who is a spokesman for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.



“If you decrease it to five days, you’re still going to small but significant number of people who are contagious,” he said.



That’s why wearing masks is a critical part of the CDC guidance, Walensky said.

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CDC recommends shorter Covid isolation, quarantine for all

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="740" height="416" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/106987053-1639056888438-gettyimages-1236960506-SOUTH_AFRICA_TESTARO.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-414342" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/106987053-1639056888438-gettyimages-1236960506-SOUTH_AFRICA_TESTARO.jpeg 740w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/106987053-1639056888438-gettyimages-1236960506-SOUTH_AFRICA_TESTARO-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/106987053-1639056888438-gettyimages-1236960506-SOUTH_AFRICA_TESTARO-160x90.jpeg 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px" /><figcaption>A health worker packages a coronavirus swab test at a Testaro Covid-19 testing site in the Goodwood district of Cape Town, South Africa, on Thursday, Dec. 2, 2021. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images </figcaption></figure>



The omicron Covid variant is less likely to result in hospitalization than earlier strains and appears to be milder in comparison, according to early data released this week.



Data from South Africa, England and Scotland indicate that people infected with omicron are significantly less likely to be admitted to hospital than if they contract other strains, and the latter study further emphasized the importance of getting a booster shot .



On Tuesday, a new study from South Africa showed that people infected with omicron are 80% less likely to be admitted to hospital when compared to other strains. The authors of the study, which has not been peer reviewed, cautioned that this may be in part due to higher immunity among the population, either as a result of previous infection and/or vaccination.



The research, published by the country’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases on Tuesday, suggests a reduced risk of hospitalization and severe disease in omicron sufferers when compared to people who caught the delta variant.



Assessing results from Oct. 1 to Dec. 6, the data shows that individuals with omicron were 70% less likely to experience severe disease than earlier delta infections. However, among those hospitalized, the risk of severe disease didn’t differ from other variants.



The authors of the South Africa paper controlled for factors known to be associated with more severe infections, including age and co-morbidities, and adjusted for factors including vaccination status.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Read more: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2021/imf-chief-says-omicron-could-dent-global-economic-growth/">IMF chief says Omicron could dent global economic growth</a></h3>



Elsewhere, studies from Scotland and England appear to back up the South Africa findings.



Early Scottish data, published Wednesday and not peer reviewed, suggests that omicron is two-thirds less likely to result in hospitalization versus delta. The study also suggests a third or booster dose of vaccination offers substantial additional protection against symptomatic Covid for omicron.



“These early national data suggest that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation when compared to Delta,” the report authors wrote.



“Whilst offering the greatest protection against Delta, the third/booster dose of vaccination offers substantial additional protection against the risk of symptomatic Covid-19 for Omicron when compared to [greater than or equal to] 25 weeks post second vaccine dose,” they added.



Separate figures from England, also published Wednesday, show that the risk of needing to stay in hospital for patients with the new variant is 40% to 45% lower than in those with delta. The Imperial College London study, which is not peer reviewed, found omicron infection was 15% to 20% less likely to lead to hospitalization compared to delta.



However, the authors stressed that taking vaccination status into account “reveals a more complex overall picture,” given that people in England may have received the Pfizer, Moderna or AstraZeneca shots — or a combination.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-really-good-news"><a></a>‘Really good’ news</h2>



Scientists stress that it is still too early to definitively say whether omicron is milder, and its higher transmissibility means there is still a risk that healthcare systems could become overwhelmed because the high number of infections will likely lead to more people needing hospital care.



However, the new data provides a ray of hope as governments try to asses the severity of the variant.



“For all of us on an individual level, the current studies indicate something really good,” Ralf Reintjes, professor of epidemiology at Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Thursday.



“At the same time, from an epidemiological view, this variant spreads so much faster than previous ones. So society and our health care system is still running a high risk of being overrun very soon.”



He also stressed that there is already “strong immune response” in many populations, which makes it hard to assess omicron’s severity.



Omicron has rapidly spread around the globe since it was first identified in South Africa in November. It was reported to the World Health Organization on Nov. 24 and the group labelled it a “variant of concern” two days later, noting that it had mutations associated with increased transmissibility.



The U.S. is now reporting nearly 150,000 daily Covid cases, while the U.K. reported over 100,000 daily cases on Wednesday for the first time since the start of the pandemic.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Read more: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2021/who-urges-holiday-caution-an-event-canceled-is-better-than-a-life-canceled/">WHO urges holiday caution: ‘An event canceled is better than a life canceled’</a></h3>



Some governments have introduced new restrictions in an attempt to slow the spread of omicron. The Netherlands entered a full lockdown this weekend, leaving only supermarkets and essential shops open.



Fears over the new variant have put a dampener on the winter holidays for many, as people change their plans in an effort to avoid catching Covid, or have to isolate if they do.



In the U.K., the government is shortening the mandatory self-isolation period in England from 10 days to seven for those who get negative lateral flow test results on two consecutive days.



Preliminary studies have shown that the unvaccinated are being hit the hardest by omicron, and even those with two shots are seeing breakthrough infections. However, three doses have been shown to offer protection against the omicron variant, leading authorities in the U.K., U.S. and elsewhere to ramp up their booster shot programs.



Pfizer and BioNTech announced earlier this month that while two doses of their vaccine may still offer protection against severe disease, protection is improved with a third dose, according to an early laboratory study.



However, the World Health Organization on Wednesday warned such booster drives threatened to prolong the pandemic, as unequal access to vaccines could lead to the emergence of more mutations of the virus.



— CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt and Nate Rattner contributed to this report

106987053-1639056888438-gettyimages-1236960506-SOUTH_AFRICA_TESTARO

Three new studies suggest omicron has lower hospitalization risk and is milder than other variants

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="740" height="416" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/106946427-1632411666251-who.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-414312" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/106946427-1632411666251-who.jpg 740w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/106946427-1632411666251-who-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/106946427-1632411666251-who-160x90.jpg 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px" /><figcaption>World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus attends a news conference organized by Geneva Association of United Nations Correspondents (ACANU) amid the COVID-19 outbreak, caused by the novel coronavirus, at the WHO headquarters in Geneva Switzerland July 3, 2020. Fabrice Coffrini | Pool | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



The World Health Organization has called for some holiday gatherings to be canceled as the omicron Covid-19 variant spreads rapidly around the world.



The highly infections variant has now been detected in at least 89 countries and forced some governments to impose stricter containment measures over the festive period.



The WHO has said cases are doubling every 1.5 to 3 days in areas with community transmission. Omicron is now the dominant variant in the United States, accounting for 73% of all infections.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-read-more-who-warns-against-concluding-omicron-is-milder-variant">Read more: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2021/who-warns-against-concluding-omicron-is-milder-variant/">WHO warns against concluding Omicron is milder variant</a></h3>



Speaking at a press conference on Monday, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said both policymakers and the public would have to make “difficult decisions” in order to return to normal.



“All of us are sick of this pandemic. All of us want to spend time with friends and family. All of us want to get back to normal. The fastest way to do this is for all of us, leaders and individuals, to make the difficult decisions that must be made to protect ourselves and others,” he said.



“An event canceled is better than a life canceled. It is better to cancel now and celebrate later than to celebrate now and grieve later.”

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WHO urges holiday caution: ‘An event canceled is better than a life canceled’

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="740" height="416" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/106913464-1626783928878-gettyimages-1233680604-AVDjune7.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-410942" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/106913464-1626783928878-gettyimages-1233680604-AVDjune7.jpeg 740w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/106913464-1626783928878-gettyimages-1233680604-AVDjune7-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/106913464-1626783928878-gettyimages-1233680604-AVDjune7-140x80.jpeg 140w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px" /><figcaption>In this Photo illustration a World Health Organization(WHO) logo seen displayed on an Android phone.
Avishek Das | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



GENEVA, Dec 20 (Reuters) &#8211; The World Health Organization&#8217;s chief scientist said on Monday it was too early to conclude the Omicron variant was milder than other coronavirus strains, saying it could still make enough people sick to &#8220;overburden&#8221; healthcare systems.



&#8220;&#8230;It is probably unwise to sit back and think this is a mild variant, it&#8217;s not going to cause severe disease, because I think with the numbers going up all health systems are going to be under strain,&#8221; Soumya Swaminathan told Geneva-based journalists.



She added that this perception appeared to be based on initial data out of parts of South Africa which might give a misleading impression due to high levels of existing immunity among the population.



This is a developing story&#8230;



(Reporting by Emma Farge and Stephanie Nebehay Editing by Chris Reese)

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