ABUJA (Reuters) &#8211; Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari will sign the 2018 budget into law on Wednesday, a presidency spokesman said.
Femi Adesina, in an emailed statement issued on Tuesday, said the spending plan passed by parliament last month would be signed on Wednesday at 12 p.m. (1100 GMT).
Africa’s top oil producer emerged from its first recession in 25 years in 2017, helped by higher crude prices, but growth remains fragile. The recession was largely caused by low crude prices and militant attacks on energy facilities, since oil sales make up two-thirds of government revenue.
Parliament passed a 9.12 trillion naira (29.8 billion) spending plan last month which is higher than the 8.6 trillion naira budget presented to parliament by Buhari in November, because lawmakers increased the assumed oil price to $51 per barrel, from $45.
The spending plan must be signed by the president to be passed into law, but it was not immediately clear whether Buhari would sign off on the budget in its expanded form.
($1 = 314.5000 naira)
Reporting by Felix Onuah; Writing by Alexis Akwagyiram; Editing by Catherine Evans, William Maclean

Buhari to sign Nigeria’s 2018 budget into law, here’s what you need to know

His face contorts slightly as he, slowly, but painfully, returns through the murky mist of 42 years. His hands tremble with emotion as he relives horrific images lodged in the corners of his mind. The birds singing in the blue sky over the idyllic garden of his family home in Roodepoort, Johannesburg, contrasting with the moody, mean, streets of Soweto of yore.
Eighty-three-year-old Enoch Duma lived the slaughter of scores of schoolchildren on that fateful winter’s day in Soweto in 1976. It was his job to be there as a reporter for a Johannesburg newspaper and had his own car. He knew serious trouble was building. Many of the schoolchildren involved used to call him “Bra E” and held him in high esteem.
“I just knew the previous night the people were uneasy as if something was going to happen, some people didn’t go to work. You had people like Tsietsi Mashinini, Seth Mazibuko and other student leaders coming to your house.  I was always ahead of what was happening, “says Duma.
On the morning of June 16, Duma was out driving through the tense streets of Soweto and saw a big crowd approaching.
“They ran to my car Tsietse said: Hey! Soweto is burning – is it bad, it is very bad just stay ahead of things. Hide if you can hide because there is going to be trouble tonight. If the police shoot we are going to answer with petrol bombs. This was something new in Soweto.”
The mood turned ugly when news filtered through the crowd in Orlando that police had shot dead Hector Pieterson. A bloody killing captured for eternity by the famous photograph by <a href="http://cnbc.africa/news/southern-africa/2018/05/14/this-is-why-african-photojournalists-should-aspire-to-be-like-sam-nzima/">Sam Nzima</a> that he smuggled out through police lines to make the front pages everywhere from New York to Sydney the next day.
“When people heard it was Hector they were very angry. They armed themselves with Molotov Cocktails and started throwing these petrol bombs recklessly. They were just mad,” says Duma.
The birds outside tweet, incongruously, as Duma’s face darkens with the deepening story.
“I can still see the madness in their faces and their anger. They didn’t know what to do,” he says.
“I saw a burning body thrown into a dustbin. I couldn’t stand it I had to drive through. There were moments when I thought I wasn’t going to make it. It was difficult to see where the students were coming from. They were coming out of buildings with Molotov Cocktails and some carried dustbin lids as shields. Among the leaders were very young people. The real fighters were the little girls – they were ready to die.”
Among them, Susan Shabangu who spent months on the run in the clampdown that followed; like many of the survivors, she escaped into exile to fight the struggle and ended up as her country’s mining and social development minister.
It was an horrific chapter of a rich career that saw Duma the son of a Baptist minister, born in Durban in KwaZulu-Natal, work his way from reporting the courts in his hometown to working on a national newspaper.  He joined the Post in Durban through a friend, who was a reporter on the paper, called Duke Ncobo.
“The newspaper wanted a young cub reporter and suggested I should write two stories for the editor. He read them looked at me and read them and looked at me and said did you write this or did someone write this for you? I said: no. He said go to Mr Ncobo and he said; who said: I think the editor likes you!”
His first arrest came in bizarre fashion. Ncobo invited the young Duma to a party in a block of flats in downtown Durban to leading lights of the African National Congress including Fatima Meer and journalist GR Naidoo. An elderly woman living below called the police complaining of the noise; the police, who suspected the party was a front for a political meeting among people of colour, encouraged her to press charges. They arrested 27 partygoers including Gama and threw them in the cells.
The court case turned into farce. The elderly lady, in her 70s, complained that the partygoers had banged the floor above her as they danced. In court, the judge asked the lady to demonstrate the dance. There were titters in court as ushers cleared the chairs away and the lady did a high-stepping dance. The judge ruled she hadn’t made sufficient noise to convince him, yet Duma and his colleagues were held to have been a public nuisance.
Duma secured a job on the City Post, amid the bright lights and jazz of 1950s Johannesburg and arrived at Park Station with nothing but a suitcase. A van from the newspaper picked him up to take him to the newsroom buzzing with young journalists.
“You must pretend to be one of them, otherwise they will give you a hard time,” chirped the driver.
These were colourful and chaotic times for young black journalists at the City Post. A regular caller with stories was a young and vivacious social worker called Winnie Mandela.
“<a href="http://cnbc.africa/category/insights/winnie-madikizela-mandela/">Winnie Mandela</a>, she was very young used to come to the office and was very friendly with reporters . The gangsters respected Winnie,” says Duma.
Gangsters and guns were another part of newsroom life at the City Post. Gangs ruled many of the Johannesburg streets in the 1950s – the Spoilers, the Americans and the Msomi gang. Their leaders used to waltz in off the street with wide brimmed hats and long fine coats looking more Chicago than Sub-Saharan Africa. Often they carried small “baby brown” pistols, sometimes concealed in a bandage, to intimidate journalists for a number of sins. It could be to force them to stay away from their girlfriends or stop writing about them or start writing about them. Often a gun up the nose proved mightier than the pen, until one day.
“One day they came and they found the deputy editor having a meeting with the reporters. The gangsters introduced themselves and the deputy editor Henk Margolis, an American brought in to work on the paper, says: “Gentlemen can I help you?”
“They pointed a gun at him, Henk noticed this and was not scared. ‘If you think you can intimidate me you are wrong I was born in Chicago, so I have no time for small fry.’ That day we thought there was going to be a showdown. Henk grabbed hold of the leader and pushed him outside. That was the last time the gangs came to the office,” says Duma with a smile.
It turned out that gangsters with police uniforms on proved to be Duma’s downfall. He was arrested numerous times and ended up spending nine months in prison. He went into exile in the United States and with his wife of 56 years, Kitty, he was a prime mover in the divestment campaign – encouraging US firms to pull out of South Africa – that helped usher in the end of apartheid.
A system that stoked the fiery horror of June 16 that people who were there will never forget.

Soweto Burning, June 16: Enoch Duma recounts that fateful day spent in the eye of the fire and fury

Over 45 people from business and government – the biggest combined regional delegation ever to travel on an investment roadshow –spent their last Mission day in London on Friday 8th June to share the facts that Durban is Africa&#8217;s ‘premier investment destination’.
Delegates were responding to a request from Her Worship, eThekwini Mayor, Cllr. Zandile Gumede to promote the city and the province that houses it – KwaZulu-Natal, to the UK markets. Her Worship The Mayor said, &#8220;Durban is geared for growth and we came in force to the U.K., with our Business Leaders, to confirm in person that we are ready for significant new investments.&#8221;
The Durban Mayor and MEC Finance, Mrs Belinda Scott, had several detailed engagements beginning in Newcastle, and County Durham before progressing on to London. These engagements with the UK&#8217;s &#8220;Northern Powerhouse&#8221; were with the Mayors, Councillors and Business Leaders in Newcastle, Tees Port, and County Durham to advance mutually beneficial partnerships. Newcastle is a formal &#8220;Partner City&#8221; with Durban, and our Durban Chamber of Commerce has an active Partnership Agreement with the N.E. England Chamber of Commerce.
Mrs Katie Friedman, a British Citizen now resident in Durban, and a Founding Director of Urban Lime (Urban regeneration Investors who&#8217;ve invested GBP100 million into Durban already) gave reasons why they have chosen Africa&#8217;s &#8220;premier investment destination. She said, &#8220;As a British originated company, we came to Durban over 3 years ago because there are not only great business opportunities, offering globally attractive returns, but also because it has Africa&#8217;s best quality of life. It is a truly African city, alive with possibilities for all who come to work in partnership with South Africans. It&#8217;s now our family and friends new home for life!&#8221;
When planning the London leg, only about 25 B2B (business to business) meetings with investors, financiers and those interested in the region&#8217;s offerings were expected to take place, but due to high demand, more than 65 B2B meetings were concluded. These were with the likes of UK companies Nex Rubica, Invest Trade SA, Fieldstone, Abalon Capital and Titanium Capital.
Those with capital to invest came to hear about Durban, KwaZulu-Natal&#8217;s key catalytic projects, local businesses and the region’s competitive advantages. Catalytic projects discussed included Dube Tradeport, the province’s flagship infrastructural development, Keystone Park, a logistics, warehousing and light industrial precinct, the Cornubia mixed-use development, Richards Bay Industrial Development Zone, a prime industrial and trade hub; the Beachwood high-security premium residential location and 5-star resort, the Oceans Mall Development, and others like the Durban Point Waterfront. Sporting business investments were also on offer via Amazulu Football Club, a Premier Soccer League club based in Durban, South Africa which is reaching out to the world.
Cllr Sipho Kaunda, eThekwini Municipality’s Economic Development and Planning Committee Chairperson attributed the interest, &#8220;to the opportunities the region has for both small and large investors. The 65+ B2B meetings concluded on Friday alone set a new record from which additional investments will flow into our economy.&#8221;
Martin Orji, Managing Principal and Board Member of NR Capital, one of the investors at the London B2B meetings described these engagements as, &#8220;timely, in terms of the selection of projects &#8211; it is the type investors need to see&#8221;, he said.
This was confirmed by Mr Batanayi Katongera, a Head at MacFarlanes LLC in London who remarked, &#8220;The quality of the projects, and the packaging plus presentation of the Durban investment materials is truly world class; better than most I&#8217;ve seen in London to date.&#8221;
In closing, Mr Phillip Sithole, eThekwini Metro&#8217;s Deputy City Manager advised, &#8220;We are pleased to have brought 45 top Executives to the U.K. with a combined total value of projects open for investment which exceed 10 billion Pounds. We are proud to have brought in big business leaders from Durban who are looking for international partners, and many of them had more than 5 Business meetings on this 1 day in London alone. So indeed, we took Durban to the world&#8221;, Sithole confirmed.
Invest Durban will now be assisting these businesses, and others from both the U.K. &amp; Durban who couldn&#8217;t come, to make follow ups in the coming weeks. This increased bilateral trade and investment will be ensured to benefit all communities in both the U.K. and Durban, KwaZulu-Natal.

UK investors flock to Durban, KwaZulu-Natal investment roadshow

By Jacques Nel, Chief Economist: Southern and East Africa, NKC African Economics 
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report for April 2018. Entitled “Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change”, the largely positive report notes that global economic growth has not been this strong and broad-based since the sharp 2010 bounce-back following the 2008-09 financial crisis.
Global real GDP growth is projected to reach 3.9% this year, which is slightly higher than the October projection of 3.7%. The Fund’s growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains at 3.4% for this year. This reflects a notable improvement from the 2.8% growth estimate for 2017. The Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region is also projected to grow by 3.4% this year, which is markedly higher than the 2017 growth estimate of 2.6% and slightly stronger than the October projection of 3.2% for 2018.
The latest update includes some notable revisions to individual country growth projections for this year.
Algeria saw the largest upward revision to its 2018 growth forecast from a projection of 0.7% made in October to the latest figure of 3.0%. The oil exporter continues to struggle to adapt to structurally lower energy prices, but higher oil- and gas-related fiscal revenue is expected to support the government’s planned increase in capital spending this year.
Zimbabwe is another country that saw a sizeable upward adjustment in its 2018 growth forecast (from 0.8% made in October to the current figure of 2.4%), with the IMF evidently giving newly installed President Emmerson Mnangagwa the benefit of the doubt over whether his promising rhetoric will be converted into action.
Furthermore, most of the continent’s economic giants also saw upward revisions to their 2018 growth projections, including Nigeria (due to an improved outlook for oil revenue and the introduction of forex measure to ease liquidity constraints), Angola (due to stronger oil prices), Egypt (due to stronger domestic demand and the effects of structural reforms), and South Africa (due to ‘Ramaphoria’).
At the other end of the spectrum, some countries saw notable reductions in their 2018 growth projections.
Libya saw the largest downward revision, from an October projection of 31.2% to the latest figure of 16.4%. The IMF made significant downward revisions to its historical estimates for Libya’s GDP in 2015 and 2016 while increasing the estimate for real GDP in 2017. This led to an estimate of 71% real GDP growth for 2017 compared to the 55% growth forecast made in October. These wild revisions in estimates speak to the difficulties involved given the scarcity of solid economic data for the country and its total dependence on oil exports.
A notable downward revision in Ghana’s 2018 growth projection saw the West African nation conceding the title of the fastest-growing SSA economy to its East African counterpart Ethiopia – these were also the two fastest growing economies in the region in 2017, according to IMF estimates. A slowdown in industrial output due to maintenance work at the Jubilee oil field coupled with indications of a smaller cocoa crop this season have resulted in a 2.6 percentage point reduction in the country’s 2018 growth forecast, now set at 6.3%.
Mozambique saw its growth projection drop from 5.3% in October to the latest figure of just under 3%. The country continues to struggle with elevated real interest rates, while the decision by creditors to reject all the government’s debt restructuring proposals in March has sustained a smog of uncertainty over the country’s economic future.
Sierra Leone, Lesotho and Namibia all saw notable downward revisions in their 2018 growth forecasts.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-304778" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Africa-IMF.png" alt="" width="416" height="227" />
Stronger growth in Africa’s largest economies bodes well for the continent’s economic prospects as a whole.
South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt are regional growth drivers for Southern, West, and North Africa, respectively, and the health of these larger economies has direct bearing on growth prospects in their smaller neighbours.
It should be noted that the improvement in growth prospects for Nigeria and Angola is largely due to stronger oil prices, while South Africa’s expected recovery is still largely based on sentiment.
Nigeria still has much to do to diversify its economy away from its oil sector to improve economic resilience. In turn, South Africa’s political landscape has undoubtedly seen some improvement of late, but this positive sentiment still has to translate into actual progress on the economic front.
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The IMF has altered its outlook on Africa, this is what’s changed

By Professor Landry Signé, a David M. Rubenstein Fellow at the Brookings Institution&#8217;s Africa Growth Initiative, Distinguished Fellow at Stanford University’s Center for African Studies, Chairman of the Global Network for Africa’s Prosperity, and World Economic Forum Young Global Leader. 
Since 2000, at least half of the world’s fastest-growing economies have been in Africa. And by 2030, Africa will be home to 1.7 billion people, whose combined consumer and business spending will total $6.7 trillion
Seven years ago, the <a class="js-external-link" href="https://hbr.org/2011/05/the-globe-cracking-the-next-growth-market-africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Harvard Business Review pointed out</a> that Africa is also home to many of the world’s biggest opportunities. And yet, despite its tremendous business potential, Africa has not risen to the top of Western business leaders’ agendas.
In fact, between 2014 and 2016, <a class="js-external-link" href="http://thehill.com/opinion/international/366176-a-sound-trump-policy-on-africa-could-protect-us-interests" target="_blank" rel="noopener">U.S. exports</a> to Africa fell by almost half, from $38 billion to $22 billion. And while the <a class="js-external-link" href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theukstradeandinvestmentrelationshipwithafrica/2016" target="_blank" rel="noopener">United Kingdom’s investments</a> on the continent more than doubled between 2005 and 2014, reaching £42.5 billion ($57.6 billion), only <a class="js-external-link" href="http://www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-exports/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2.5 percent of its total exports are to Africa</a>.
Western countries are quickly losing ground to China, which increased its exports to Africa more than sevenfold—to $103 billion—from 2005 to 2015. If Western businesses hope to keep up, they will need to tap into the African countries and sectors with the highest potential for growth.
By 2030, more than half of Africa’s population will reside in seven countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Tanzania, Kenya, and South Africa. But, more important, 43 percent of Africans will belong to the middle or upper classes, <a class="js-external-link" href="https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/ng/Documents/consumer-business/the-deloitte-consumer-review-africa-a-21st-century-view.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">up from 39.6 percent in 2013</a>, implying considerably higher demand for goods and services. By 2030, household consumption is expected to reach $2.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion in 2015.
Nearly half of that $2.5 trillion will be spent in three countries: Nigeria (20 percent), Egypt (17 percent), and South Africa (11 percent). But there will also be lucrative opportunities in Algeria, Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Sudan, and Tunisia. Any one of these countries would be a good bet for companies seeking to enter new markets.
By 2030, the sectors generating the most value in Africa will be food and beverages ($740 billion), education and transportation ($397 billion), and housing ($390 billion). But there will also be strong growth in consumer goods ($370 billion), hospitality and recreation ($260 billion), health care ($175 billion), financial services ($85 billion), and telecommunications ($65 billion).
Of course, much of this growth will depend on the African Union properly implementing its new <a class="js-external-link" href="https://au.int/en/ti/cfta/about" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Continental Free Trade Area</a>, which would create a single market for goods and services, offering corporations many points of entry. Moreover, the CFTA will increase the need for connectivity, so there will be new opportunities to invest in infrastructure and sectors ranging from transportation and energy to information and communications technology (ICT) and water supplies. For its part, the African Development Bank can help investors find promising projects through its <a class="js-external-link" href="https://www.afdb.org/en/topics-and-sectors/initiatives-partnerships/programme-for-infrastructure-development-in-africa-pida/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa</a>.
Another major growth area between now and 2030 will be in African business-to-business spending, which will reach $4.2 trillion, up from $1.6 trillion in 2015. Here, the largest sectors will be agriculture and agricultural processing ($915 billion), manufacturing ($666 billion), and construction, utilities, and transportation ($784 billion), followed by wholesale and retail ($665 billion), resources ($357 billion), banking and insurance ($249 billion), and telecommunications and ICT ($79.5 billion).
The expected growth in agriculture and agricultural processing reflects the fact that food and beverages will constitute the largest share of total household spending. Moreover, 60 percent of the world’s unused arable land is in Africa, which still contributes a meager share of worldwide agricultural exports. That means there is a lot of room for growth. And, because severe hunger still affects many African countries, investors can even contribute to the public good by investing in fertilizers, machinery, water and irrigation systems, and other areas of the agriculture sector.
As of 2012, the African countries with the highest agricultural value-added in terms of annual growth included Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Tanzania. In addition, Angola, Morocco, and South Africa now all have sizable markets, and have committed to expanding their agricultural sectors.
According to the <a class="js-external-link" href="https://hbr.org/2017/05/the-worlds-next-great-manufacturing-center" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Harvard Business Review</a>, Africa also has the potential to become “the world’s next great manufacturing center.” China is expected to lose from <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2017/11/17/future-development-reads-the-manufacturing-dreams-and-nightmares-of-china/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">85-100 million low-cost, labor-intensive manufacturing jobs</a> by <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/podcast-episode/made-in-africa-manufacturing-and-economic-growth-on-the-continent/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2030</a>, and Africa stands to capture many of them.
This helps to explain why manufacturing will be the second-largest sector in terms of business-to-business spending. Another reason is that many of the manufacturing opportunities in Africa happen to be in globally competitive sectors such as automobiles and transport equipment, refined petroleum, computers, and office and industrial machinery. South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria are already becoming promising places to invest in these areas. And investors will also be able to find high returns and favorable business environments in Ethiopia, Morocco, and Rwanda.
Africa is the world’s last frontier market, and Western businesses need to start taking advantage of its tremendous potential, as Chinese firms already are. Doing business in Africa will also create sustainable jobs and advance the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals to eliminate poverty and hunger. And that, too, will be good for the bottom line. As the <a class="js-external-link" href="http://report.businesscommission.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business and Sustainable Development Commission has shown</a>, pursuing the SDGs “could raise trillions in new market opportunities in ways that extend prosperity to all.”

Op-Ed: How investors can capture Africa’s high returns

By Glenn Gillis, Sea Monster CEO
In the 2017 Global Innovation Index Report, South Africa ranked 97th out of 127 global economies1. That suggests a serious innovation deficit at a time when we most needs fresh forms of thinking.
With the economy struggling and unemployment at an all time high, the old solutions are unlikely to make a difference, innovation is South Africa’s best hope for meeting its potential. In fact, depending on your perspective the challenge is urgent and significant.
If we’re going to turn South Africa into a thriving example of global innovation, we must start now, and we must be brave.
Simple as that might sound, it involves completely uprooting the way we do things, starting with education.
Radically reimagining the university model
Take universities for example. They’re becoming increasingly costly to run, engagement levels keep falling, and despite throwing more money at the problem, there’s been little improvement in results. It’s hardly surprising then that they’ve become sites of protest and contestation.
If that’s to change, small interventions aren’t going to cut it. A radical reimagining of the model will see operational costs massively reduced, making them affordable to many more people.
It means going back to basics and understanding that the goal of higher education is to foster critical thinking. This will future-proof our students, country, and economy.
Forget the packaging and focus on delivering skills with the available technology. And always focus on the user/student. We must consider more than ever not just the knowledge but the ability to think and act differently.
Similarly in business, optimising existing processes will only result in marginal gains. For businesses to really thrive, they need to take an imaginative approach.
Throw out typical training methods
A great example of where organisations could benefit from abandoning “business as usual” is in employee training.
Typically, it’s something that uses great time and resources. Moreover, typical training methods often fail to engage employees in a way that encourages them to retain information they’re receiving.
Employees are crammed into classrooms to listen to someone whose time could be better spent doing their actual job. Why not let already available technologies take the lead?
You could, for instance, create an engaging virtual reality experience that can easily be rolled out to thousands of people for a fraction of what it would ordinarily cost. Initial spend might appear large but when you do the full business case these solutions can yield massive savings over time.
Bold leadership
With such obvious benefits, how can South African institutions across all sectors go about rebuilding themselves for innovation?
Well, it starts at the top. In any organisation, leaders must embrace the need for change and drive its adoption. No matter how keen middle management might be, their ideas won’t get anywhere if they’re blocked by higher-ups.   KPIs will almost always kill innovation, unless the environment is properly enabling.
These leaders also need to be able to think beyond current pressures and bet that bold changes will pay off over time. We need to invest boldly, take a bigger view, and ensure that projects are adequately protected from bureaucracy and give sufficient resources for their development.
In an environment where many are just hoping to get by, that isn’t easy.
If leaders are to take their organisations in new directions, government also must allow them to.
Company regulations, for instance, need to be massively simplified. If legislation is a hindrance to employment and growth, we should consider revising it.
Getting South Africa to that point might take hard work, but if we’re to start climbing the global innovation ladder, we must embrace radical new ways of doing things now.
Our challenges are immense. I wouldn’t want it said that on our watch we stood by and thought more of the same was acceptable.

Op-ed: For SA to fix its innovation deficit it is time for it to re-imagine the way it does things

By <a href="http://cnbc.africa/tag/david-s-levin/">David S. Levin</a>, micro-blogging on all things Africa from New York
In January, <a href="http://cnbc.africa/news/special-report/2017/01/04/trump-and-africa/">I wrote an article about what I thought Donald Trump’s policies toward Africa might look like</a> once he took office. I based my theories, in part, on the frequency that he mentioned Africa &#8211; or any of its countries assuming he could even name one &#8211; during the 2016 presidential campaign.
And, suffice to say, as bad as I thought it would be, it’s actually been much worse than even I anticipated.
Like much of the rest of his presidency, the way Donald Trump has dealt with Africa has bordered on embarrassing. Actually, in many cases, insulting would be far more accurate.
Clearly, his foreign policy style in general has been just a little heavy-handed and lacking in certain expected presidential qualities such as diplomacy, statesmanship and coherent oratory to name a few. Not to mention judgement. Just ask Mexico.
But when it comes to Africa, Trump has had more than his share of faux-pas, snubs and puerile gaffes that, when combined, clearly demonstrate his almost complete indifference toward the continents 1.2 billion men, women and children. At times, his actions and statements have been so astonishing, so inexplicable, that even his own staff were caught off-guard and forced into spin-mode to control the damage.
Back in July for example, he decided that the G20’s “Partnership with Africa: Migration and Health” meeting was unimportant so he tapped his daughter, Ivanka, to attend the meeting in his absence. She looked just a tad out of place stuffed between the UK’s Prime Minister Theresa May and China’s President, Xi Jinping like a slice of sandwich meat. In hindsight though, I suppose he could’ve sent his 11 year old son, Barron, instead so maybe Ivanka wasn’t such a bad choice after all.
During a G7 meeting in Italy, he didn’t even bother to listen to the translation of the president of Niger’s remarks in French. Instead Trump removed his headphones, looking as bored as a five year old at a university lecture on quantum physics.
And let’s not forget when he mispronounced the name of Namibia <a href="https://qz.com/1083778/nambia-donald-trumps-made-up-african-country-joins-wakanda-zamunda-and-many-others/">as “Nam-bia”</a> in a speech recently, merging it with its neighbor Zambia during a lunch with African leaders at the UN, demonstrating his professorial command of African geography and broad knowledge of the world community.
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But my personal favourite however, just due to his stunning lack of sensitivity and consciousness, was when he said that Africa had tremendous business potential and that he had “so many friends going to your countries, trying to get rich”.
Talk about landing with a thud.
All of these however, are just a small sampling of the many awkward miscues that Donald Trump has become famous for since taking office at the White House. Those cringe-worthy moments will be replayed time and again after his time in office is up and that will serve as the soundtrack to his presidency for future generations. All told however, they’re actually more astounding and bewildering than damaging.
But to understand the detrimental impact of Trump’s presidency on the African people, one needs to consider some of the more quantifiable moves he’s made. The ones measured in dollars and guns.
As the old expression goes; “watch what they do, not what they say.”
In his recent 2018 budget, Trump has been clear that, globally, he is prioritising defense spending and fighting terror over diplomacy and foreign aid. This was evidenced by the $700 billion dollar defense bill now pending before Congress &#8211; and the simultaneous slashing of the State Department’s budget by over a third. That’s dangerous maths. And because of that, non-defence programmes, like much of the aid the US doles out around the world, will be vulnerable to Trump’s knife. And he is licking his chops.
This is where Africa is going to take a giant hit.
To Donald Trump, Africa is at the bottom of the list. Its value to the United States is easily quantifiable and narrowly defined; fighting Al Qaeda, ISIS, al-Shabaab and Boko Haram. And to fund it all, Africa’s aid programmes will have a giant, red bullseye right in the middle of their figurative foreheads.
Already, among other programmes, George Bush’s massively successful PEPFAR programme is in the crosshairs, with Trump slashing it by 17% &#8211; which will drastically impact the fight against AIDS and could result in millions more African’s becoming infected, with many of them ultimately dying. He is also looking to cut USAID by over one third meaning that much of the development assistance received by Africa will be significantly diminished as well.
And while Trump is cutting foreign aid and humanitarian programmes in Africa, he is at the same time flexing US military and financial muscle to fight terror there. The Pentagon has already seen significant success fighting ISIS in Iraq. Trump’s military policies are working there. But the global war on terror has multiple fronts and Africa is central to the fight. And as in the Middle East, the US cannot risk allowing terrorism to continue to fester and spread on the continent. This would not only result in the deaths of many Africans, but would ultimately be exported to the West as well. He needs to win in Africa too.
But foreign policy is not all or nothing &#8211; certainly not when it comes to one’s allies. Foreign policy is a balance of interests. Support and aid come in many forms, not just high-tech attack aircraft, missiles and troops. And on a continent with so many needs, and nearly 15% of the world’s population, pulling the plug on vital humanitarian and health programmes that millions of Africans have come to count on is both reckless and short sighted.
George W. Bush, for example, during his first term, focused on ending the bloody civil wars that were raging in Sudan, Angola, Congo, Sierra Leone and Liberia. But by the beginning of his second term, with the majority of those conflicts having ended, he was able to launch aggressive development and humanitarian programmes focused on lifting Africa and its people back up. And Barack Obama, while he also stepped up the war on terror in Africa, launched “Power Africa” which addressed the crippling lack of power across the continent although the results have been mixed to date.
The difference between Trump’s approach to foreign policy and that of his predecessors is clear. With Bush and Obama, there was a balance. It wasn’t all or nothing. They both flexed US military muscle where it was needed. But they also focused money, manpower and knowhow on the humanitarian side designed to help the African people out of poverty and address the many challenges faced by the continent.
Trump, by contrast, is looking at only one half of the equation.
With 233 million people in sub-Saharan Africa facing dangerous levels of hunger and malnutrition, and over 23 million African’s impacted by AIDS, and education and illiteracy rates at record levels compared to other parts of the world, Africa should be the last place that these programmes are cut, not the first.
In all likelihood, Trump will not be voted into a second term of office given the current political climate in the US and his record unpopularity among the electorate. His favourability rating is at a mere 35% which is the lowest of any modern day president by far. He has alienated friend and foe alike. And although he still has three years left to serve, one can only hope that whoever occupies the White House in 2020, whether Democrat or Republican, will reverse many of Trump’s draconian initiatives and have a more balanced &#8211; and more humane &#8211; view of foreign policy toward Africa.

Op-Ed: Trump and Africa One Year Later

SARB’s Kganyago talks on economy, growth and KPMG scandal

By Jameel Ahmad, Global Head of Currency Strategy and Market Research at FXTM
The South African Rand seems to have commenced the final month of the year on the front foot, advancing to its highest level against the Dollar since October 18, slightly above 13.40 on December 6. A gradual decline in buying momentum for the Dollar has probably been the likely catalyst contributing to a strengthening Rand, but volatility could swing in either direction as attention is focusing on the African National Congress leadership conference next week. The ANC conference will be seen as a key risk event for investors, with its outcome not only likely to play a major role in how the Rand concludes the year, but also towards its future outlook in 2018.
It appears that investors have positioned themselves on the likelihood that current Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa will be victorious next week, but the markets are likely to take profits on recent momentum as the ANC conference looms and anxiety sets in.
There is optimism that if victorious, Ramaphosa would receive a positive reaction from the financial markets. However, it shouldn’t be discounted that irrespective of the outcome next week, fundamental issues will remain, and the economy will take some time to address them. While the appointment of Ramaphosa has the ability to reduce the impact of political risk, and consequent risk premium being priced in to the Rand, domestic issues such as slacking consumer demand, weakening public finances and warnings from respected ratings agencies will not be going away overnight.
The economy will still need fiscal reforms regardless of who wins the race to become the next leader of the ruling party. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has stated that further monetary stimulus is not an offer on the table, so pressure will remain on the South African government to introduce the reforms needed to improve both domestic and investor confidence.
On a more global scale, Bitcoin continues to dominate headlines. The cryptocurrency managed to resume its advance beyond $15000 on December 7, representing a rally now standing at 1500% year-to-date.
The astonishing new milestone in the value of Bitcoin comes just days before the first U.S. futures contracts begin trading. It appears that Bitcoin is making strides towards being accepted by the mainstream and this is supporting buying demand. With Cboe Global Markets and CME Group set to launch futures on Bitcoin this month, and Nasdaq planning for its launch next year, the expectations of many is that there will be more milestones for the Cryptocurrency to reach before 2017 concludes.
Legitimacy in Bitcoin is increasing as more institutional investors admit interest, although my concern is that the buying frenzy is an extremely overcrowded trade. Once Bitcoin is available as a CFD, investors will be able to take positions on both aspects of the market, meaning that the risks around trading Bitcoin will need to be explained to avoid potential traders being caught on the wrong side of the trade.
Disclaimer: This article contains personal opinions- the content is not investment advice and/or a solicitation for transactions, and nor does it imply an obligation to purchase investment services in financial instruments, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of information or data herein, and assumes no liability for loss arising from investment based on the same..
Risk Warning: There is a high level of risk involved with trading leveraged products such as forex and CFDs. You should not risk more than you can afford to lose, it is possible that you may lose more than your initial investment. You should not trade unless you fully understand the true extent of your exposure to the risk of loss. When trading, you must always take into consideration your level of experience. If the risks involved seem unclear to you, please seek independent financial advice.

Rand advances as ANC conference looms, Bitcoin dominates global attention

Words by Aboubaker Omar Hadi, Chairman of Djibouti Ports and Free Zone Authority
Ours is a continent rich in resources. From the coffee beans and cotton to mineral ores and oil wells, Africa is world-renowned for its raw materials.
However, exporting raw materials alone will not allow Africa to reach its potential. Indeed, the recent slump in global commodity prices has served as a harsh reminder that our traditional reliance on raw materials needs to evolve. It is only by transforming our commodities into value added goods that Africa will reap the full benefits of our natural strengths. Transforming our resources will create larger profit margins, growth and jobs. This transformation will, however, require a big industrialisation drive across the continent to foster trade and growth.
In the wake of Africa Industrialisation Day, which this year reflected on how to accelerate Africa’s progress towards the creation of a Continental Free Trade Area, we must also consider the supporting infrastructure required to make this pre-eminent objective a reality. All economies – on the global scale, but also on the regional and local level – demand a high level of circulation, which is only possible through the development of the necessary infrastructure.
In Africa, the lack of infrastructure is one of the greatest inhibitions preventing transformative growth. Ours is the only continent in the world without a transcontinental railway; in a continent where 16 out of 54 countries are landlocked, this is a real issue. Our infrastructure development therefore needs to be multimodal, ensuring that our coastlines are connected to our railways, airways and highways so that in-land countries and coastal countries are sharing in each others’ successes.
Beyond our transport links and trade zones, we also need to develop one further key aspect in our infrastructure framework: energy production. Around 600 million Africans still live without power on a daily basis. Not only is this unsustainable for our own populations but it is untenable if we are to attract foreign investors. To truly be players on the global stage, Africa needs to make sure that it has the capacity to support the industrial needs of the best of business from around the world.
As the Chairman of the Djibouti Ports and Free Zone Authority, I’ve made this industrial transformation, of both my country and the surrounding region, a priority. In the last year, we have completed and opened three state-of-the-art port facilities which have the capacity to welcome over 30,000 ships every year. As Djibouti sits on two of the world’s busiest maritime trade routes, our country has a key role to play in regional development, by ensuring our neighbours also benefit from this strategic location. Thus, the recently launched Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway will allow the continent’s fastest growing economy,
Ethiopia, to profit from our maritime façade. Already, over 90% of Ethiopia’s trade passes through Djibouti and infrastructure development is vital in ensuring that these trade routes are as efficient as possible.
In terms of our energy infrastructure, Djibouti has developed strong partnerships to strengthen investment in vital gas projects. Only last week, a memorandum of understanding was signed between Djibouti and the Chinese company Poly CGL. This MoU is the start of an important process which will see investment in a gas pipeline, a liquefaction plant and an export terminal in the south of the country, in Damerjog. 
Industrial transformation is a long term effort. We will only achieve it with methodical determination and cooperation, as we enter a turning point for the continent. Africa is the second most populated continent in the world with over 1.2 billion inhabitants. By 2050, it is estimated that around a quarter of the world’s population will be living on the African continent. Several African countries are among the fastest growing in the world in terms of economic growth. Out of the 10 fastest growing economies in the world, 3 of them are located in East Africa: Ethiopia, Djibouti and Tanzania. Now is the moment at which we must work hard to keep pace with the rate at which our continent is transforming.
http://cnbc.africa/news/east-africa/2017/05/22/africas-future-hangs-balance-dare-not-fail/

Op-Ed: How Africa can create a Continental Free Trade Area

Despite a gloomy and dark economic picture painted by South Africa’s Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba during his maiden Medium Term Budget Policy Statement of the country, it still has potential.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignleft wp-image-286737 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/hqdefault-82.jpg" alt="" width="480" height="360" />
This was the impression painted by South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago speaking to CNBC’s Geoff Cutmore in early October on the side-lines of the International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington. The interview will be broadcast on CNBC Africa in association with Brand South Africa on Monday the 30th October at 9pm CAT with a repeat on Thursday 2nd November at 7pm CAT.
Kganyago told CNBC that despite the weak growth forecast of 0.7 per cent for South Africa this year “growth is not where we would like it to be”.
He warned that politics could derail growth but “South Africa still has a lot of catch-up to do”, on several fronts.
Elaborating he said, for the first time in a long time the country underperformed “global economic growth recovery and so that already tells you we have a lot of scope to grow. Secondly the global recovery is actually broad based across regions and more important for us &#8211; as South Africa &#8211; is that the Euro area growth is expected to pick up.
“The Euro area is a very important trading partner for South Africa; it is an important destination for manufactured products, so we are hooked into the global value chain where we actually export to Europe. Thirdly South Africa’s economy has undergone some significant adjustments… it is only four, five years ago that South Africa was characterised as one of the fragile five, a lot has changed since then &#8211; we have had fiscal consolidation being set on path, we have had an adjustment on the current account side, we have had eight consecutive months of trade surpluses. South Africa is now running a positive net international investment position, which then tells you that when there is going to be monetary policy normalisation, South Africa has got its defences in place and we should be able to weather that storm quite easily and that tells you that growth will be sustained”.
Asked about his feelings on South Africa being moved down 14 places on the World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report and what the country could offer overseas investors who see a nation ravaged by legal malaise in the mining sector, political infighting and the ANC gripped by its own internal leadership battles rather than worrying about stability for the economy, Kganyago said these contestations take place in the best of democracies.
What he did find concerning, however is that the contestation is causing policy uncertainty because “you are trying to figure out who is going to adopt which policy and that does not bode well for investor confidence”.
“But”, he said, “we will get this behind us, as we have been there before.”
On issues raised about cronyism and corruption, Kganyago reckons that the fact that these things are actually coming out, the fact that South Africans are talking about these things is testimony to the strength of its institutions. “The institutions of our democracy are working,” he said.
Kganyago also shares his insights on Bell Pottinger, the Guptas, the KPMG saga, inflation expectations, the rand and why Nigeria’s growth is good for South Africa. For more insights watch the interview brought to you in association with Brand South Africa on Monday the 30th October 2017 at 9pm CAT with a repeat on Thursday 2nd November at 7pm CAT.

Reserve Bank Governor Kganyago explains why investors should still consider South Africa

Peter von Loesecke | The MBA Tour
With education being the most powerful tool that can change the world, The MBA Tour has successfully lived up to making an impact by taking the first step in providing unique opportunities for personal interaction between top international business schools and potential students to study abroad.
On Thursday, 12 October the annual MBA Tour hosted and featured top business schools from North America and Europe, where individuals saw top business schools which included: UPenn Wharton, Columbia, Chicago Booth, Toronto Rotman, and more.
“It was great to be in South Africa again this year, where we had 322 people register for the event compared to last year. We had representatives from business schools that conducted specific talks, panels, and presentations which all gave insight on the importance of studying abroad and how this can benefit individuals. This tour also showcased that MBAs abroad are not only for a higher LSM, but rather those who are determined and driven to achieve their goals,” says Peter von Loesecke, CEO &amp; Managing Director of The MBA Tour.
Based on research it is clear that there is a definite increase in the motivation to study towards an MBA. In 2014 alone, some of South Africa’s leading business schools recorded high registration numbers for prospective students enlisting for a Masters of Business Administration (MBA)<a href="https://www.moneyweb.co.za/archive/record-high-mba-enrolments-at-sa-business-schools/">[</a>1]. However ,an MBA combined with other experience like engineering or operations can help someone with that experience to differentiate themselves in the workplace.  “It is an essential qualification to understand how strong brands prevail in the marketplace, as well as why well managed distribution channels often define market success rather than the product itself, and how powerful supply chains become a competitive global advantage”, says von Loesecke.
The MBA Tour also emphasised that studying abroad is not something that is impossible and completely out of reach. The main focus of this tour was to bring top business schools from across the world to meet and build relationships with potential MBA students in Johannesburg, as well as to open up valuable channels of communication.
“The MBA is definitely worth the cost if you have the right combination of experience, motivation to succeed, and career path in mind. Many successful entrepreneurs began their careers in industry, but were able to exploit “disrupters” in their industries to build a new business model for delivering goods and services. We are looking forward to seeing how many South Africans seize the opportunity and enrol following this tour,” concluded von Loesecke.
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Open the door to thriving career opportunities abroad with an MBA degree

By: Pam Golding
It is relatively straightforward to make a good property investment when the economy and housing market are booming. As the old saying goes &#8211; a rising tide lifts all boats. However, says Sandra Gordon, Pam Golding Properties senior research analyst, when the economy is struggling with low growth – as South Africa’s currently is, there are still opportunities for investments – but it requires research and a basic knowledge of the underlying trends and dynamics driving the various sectors of the local residential market.
Increasingly, points out Dr Andrew Golding, CE of the Pam Golding Property group, residential property is being highlighted as an asset class well worth considering in order to diversify and balance an investment portfolio, as well as the potential to provide for an additional income stream, with the underlying key benefit of providing for appreciation in property value.
“The question is not so much whether one asset class when compared to another offers a better rate of return, but rather that a combination of asset classes in various ratios offers an investor access to acceptable price appreciation, income return and risk mitigation. So including residential property in your portfolio of investments makes sense in the light of all these criteria.
“The right properties not only offer the investor the potential for sound returns, but can also involve less risk than other more volatile types of growth investments. Many astute investors have done well by including residential property in their portfolios, especially in the buy to let market, which offers both income and capital appreciation returns.”
Gordon says at present both the local and global environment is currently characterised by unusually high levels of uncertainty. “The UK is in the midst of leaving the EU, raising questions about the future of the union which has been critical in bringing stability to Europe since WW2 while in the US, Trump is upending US policy – withdrawing from the Paris climate accord, ending trade pacts and escalating the risks of nuclear warfare. As a result, the balance of world power is in a state of flux.
“Here at home, socio-political issues are dampening investor and consumer confidence and the local economy is stagnating with growth remaining below 1% &#8211; which is below the population growth rate (which is approximately 1.7%).
“These uncertainties are reinforcing perceptions of property’s role as a safe haven asset,” she says.
“In the wake of the global financial crisis and local recession, the South African housing market has remained relatively subdued in the face of lacklustre economic growth rates, rising inflation and interest rates. This has prompted some analysts to caution that property is not a good investment because, once adjusted for inflation, real prices have declined.
“However, this is an over-simplification since the SA housing market consists of 6.5 million residential properties in various regions, metros and housing types. Because property is an immovable asset, each local housing market is driven by area-specific factors. The national average is merely an aggregation of these widely diverse housing markets and generally tells you little about the performance of individual properties.
“So when the economy and hence housing market are booming, it is relatively straightforward to make a profitable property investment – since the ‘rising tide lifts all boats’. But when the economy is stagnating and the national housing market is being buffeted by economic and political headwinds, there are still investment opportunities but they require an understanding of the trends and dynamics in the property market in order to ensure investors buy a property in one of the still flourishing pockets of the local housing market.”
An interesting aspect of today’s market is that some analysts suggest that the true cost of housing is the house price plus transport costs. As household finances experience rising pressure, it is likely that the daily commute will become an increasingly important part of property decisions.
This is likely to become even more of a consideration next year when SARS, under increasing pressure for revenue, considers removing VAT zero-rating on fuel – meaning households would then be paying 14% VAT on fuel – making the daily commute more expensive.
Says Gordon: “As a consequence people are responding to growing congestion and a lengthening daily commute in a number of ways, the first of which is by relocating to a growth hub, for example, acquiring an apartment in a 24-hour live, work, play precinct where you are able to walk or catch public transport to work – with gym, shops and restaurants in walking distance. We are already seeing a growing number of mixed-used developments in sought after metropolitan areas.
“Then there is the development of transport corridors.  The extension of MyCiti bus in Cape Town and the Gautrain in Gauteng is opening up new suburbs. By providing easier access for business and residents, new public transport infrastructure has a positive impact on surrounding house prices.
“Another trend is the continued move among some to estates that offer security but also facilities like schools and medical enabling them able to live within the confines of the estate. Gauteng buyers favour estates so we are seeing a proliferation in coastal cities experiencing an influx of such buyers from inland.”
Jason Shaw, national sales executive for Pam Golding Properties, says while secure estates with golf courses remain popular, additional amenities and facilities such as cycling tracks, equestrian facilities and outdoor gymnasiums make them even more popular due to being more inclusive of the entire families’ needs. “Golf courses at best offer a jogging path that is available for residents to use, making the greenbelt generally off limits for residents. Steyn City in Gauteng has managed to offer something for every need, with an 18 hole golf course, 60 km cycle track, equestrian facilities, 18km jogging promenade, sports fields,  multiple play areas and outdoor gymnasium to name but a few. As a result, the investment in these amenities has proven extremely popular with the buying public.”
So what kind of properties present investment opportunities in the current market?
Firstly, sectional title properties: With large numbers of young people entering the market for the first time and older people downsizing to reduce maintenance costs, there is a strong demand for sectional title properties across the board, particularly those under the transfer duty threshold of R900 000 as well as off plan development purchases where transfer duty is not applicable. Developers are responding with a growing portion of building plans passed for sectional title properties rather than freehold. Rising utility costs and the need for improved security is reinforcing the desire to downsize and relocate to low maintenance, conveniently located apartments in suburbs allowing a live, work, play lifestyle. As a result, smaller sectional title properties in close proximity to South Africa’s prime global cities remain excellent investment opportunities for savvy investors.
Student accommodation within close proximity to the universities and tertiary institutions is proving increasingly popular, including conversions of houses which are then let out per room, giving investors significantly greater returns compared to a single lease over the property. There is a severe shortage of student housing in South Africa, a trend which is evident in many metros in prime global cities. In mid-2016 there was an estimated 216 000 bed shortage at South African universities.

Smart property opportunities for the informed investor

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Makers of generic AIDS drugs will start churning out millions of pills for Africa containing a state-of-the-art medicine widely used in rich countries, after securing a multi-million dollar guarantee that caps prices at just $75 per patient a year.
Global health experts hope the deal will help address two looming problems in the HIV epidemic &#8211; the rising threat of resistance developing to standard AIDS drugs, and the need for more investment in manufacturing capacity.
Bill Gates’ charitable foundation will guarantee minimum sales volumes of the new combination pills using dolutegravir, a so-called integrase inhibitor that avoids the drug resistance that often develops with older treatments.
In return the drugmakers, India-based Mylan Laboratories (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=MYL.O">MYL.O</a>) and Aurobindo Pharma (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=ARBN.NS">ARBN.NS</a>), will agree the maximum price of about $75 per patient for a year’s supply &#8211; less than the list price for one day’s supply of a dolutegravir combination in the United States.
The agreement, which will make the treatment available to 92 poor countries, starting in Africa, will be formally announced during the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Thursday.
“We need to make that guarantee because (of) the fixed costs of everybody gearing up to make high volume,” Gates told Reuters in a telephone interview. “That just wasn’t going to happen unless we put forward a very substantial volume guarantee.”
The Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation’s pledge is a central plank of a new partnership &#8211; the largest of its kind in global health &#8211; that also includes the governments of South Africa and Kenya, the Clinton Health Access Initiative, and American, British and U.N. agencies.
Under the deal, Mylan and Aurobindo will ramp up availability of a new fixed-dose combination of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, lamivudine and dolutegravir (TLD).
Health ministries and other public sector purchasers will be able to buy TLD from next year at the capped price. The agreement could potentially save them more than $1 billion in drug bills over the next six years, the partners estimate.
As well as improving treatment, the drug combination should also reduce the need for more expensive second- and third-line drugs.
<h3 data-reactid="51">TREATMENT AND RESISTANCE</h3>
Around 37 million people around the world are infected with HIV, according to the United Nations AIDS agency UNAIDS. Just over half of them &#8211; about 19.5 million patients &#8211; get antiretroviral therapy medicines to keep their disease in check.
That represents remarkable progress in the past 20 years, driven by the availability of a first wave of cheap generic drugs from Indian companies. But rising levels of drug resistance are now a growing concern, while low prices have cut the incentive for investment in generic drug-making capacity.
In six out of 11 countries surveyed recently in Africa, Asia and Latin America, researchers found that more than 10 percent of HIV patients starting antiretroviral drugs had a strain of HIV resistant to the most widely-used medicines.
Once the 10 percent threshold is reached, best practice calls for switching to different drug regimens.
Dolutegravir is already being used on a limited basis as a single drug in Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda.
The drug was originally developed by ViiV Healthcare, the HIV business majority-owned by GlaxoSmithKline (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=GSK.L">GSK.L</a>). ViiV has offered licensing deals to generic companies to sell low-cost versions of the medicine in poor countries.
Clinical trials have shown that treatment regimens including dolutegravir work faster, have fewer side effects and demonstrate greater potency against drug resistance than standard HIV drugs used in Africa and other poor countries.
The TLD combination pill developed by Mylan and Aurobindo has already received tentative approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration under the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief program.
In Western markets, makers of patented AIDS drugs, such as GSK and arch-rival Gilead Sciences (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=GILD.O">GILD.O</a>), notch up billions of dollars of highly profitable sales each year.
But the picture is very different for low-price generic companies in India, which have very low margins.
“The market is always on the edge where these guys don’t make enough money to stay in the business,” said Gates.
With the HIV-positive population still growing &#8211; there were an estimated 1.8 million new cases of infection in 2016 &#8211; the number of patients needing treatment is steadily increasing.
Industry experts like Johnson &amp; Johnson (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=JNJ.N">JNJ.N</a>) Chief Scientific Officer Paul Stoffels question the feasibility of maintaining lifelong treatment for a patient population that could reach 50 million.
“The people who are infected today will need therapy for the next 30 to 50 years, so the science of treatment has to evolve and the science of prevention has to evolve as well to stop the pool of patients growing,” he told Reuters in a recent interview.
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Editing by Pravin Char
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Africa to get state-of-art HIV drugs for $75 per patient a year

By: Mastercard
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Inaugural report shows July retail sales nominal growth was 7.2% while inflation adjusted retail sales volume grew 2.3% versus July 2016.
Despite challenging economic conditions, retail sales growth for July 2017 was the highest recorded for that month since 2015. This is according to the Mastercard SpendingPulse™ report, a macroeconomic report tracking retail sales launched today in South Africa.
Nominal (not adjusting for price changes/inflation) July retail sales grew 7.2 percent versus the same month last year, marking the 55th consecutive month of positive growth. Volume retail sales &#8211; which removes the effects of inflation &#8211; for July also saw a positive increase of 2.3 percent year-over-year, indicating that consumer spending remains resilient, despite higher consumer prices.
“The continued growth in retail sales in July is encouraging, and points to a slight improvement in the consumer economy as the country emerges from a technical recession,” says Sarah Quinlan, Senior Vice President and Group Head of Market Insights for Mastercard. “South Africa’s consumer has shown resilience in the face of weak wage growth and high unemployment, reported at 27.7 percent in the second quarter.”
The average growth rate of the past three months was up 2.3 percent year-over-year, slightly above the 2.1 percent growth rate in the second quarter of this year. For the past 12 months, volume retail sales are less favourable, growing by only 0.2 percent. This is slightly underperforming GDP, which rose 0.3 percent in 2016 and is forecast to increase to 0.7 percent in 2017.
“While consumer spending is showing signs of recovery, South Africans still face a challenging macro-economic environment. The economic health of the consumer warrants close monitoring as the economy looks to regain its footing,” says Quinlan.
Mastercard SpendingPulse South Africa reports on national retail sales and uses aggregated and anonymous Mastercard transaction data, coupled with survey-based estimates for other payment forms including cash and cheque, to offer insight into consumer spending trends and the South African economy. Available to subscribers on a monthly basis, the report also includes an overall retail sales and price index to illustrate whether spending growth is being driven by increased shopping or by inflation or increased promotions.
“Providing both timely and insightful data on retail spending trends, Mastercard’s new monthly macro-economic report will offer an early overview of market indices to help retailers, investors, card issuers, banks and government agencies in their decision-making processes,” says Mark Elliott, Division President for Mastercard, Southern Africa.
In addition to reporting trends for the retail sector as a whole, the inaugural SpendingPulse South Africa breaks out sales growth trends for General Dealers, and Pharmaceutical, Medical Goods, Cosmetics and Toiletries. These sectors together account for over half of South Africa’s retail sales volume.
Pharmaceutical, Medical Goods, Cosmetic and Toiletry sales have outperformed other retail segments over the past 12 months, with sales volumes rising 3.4 percent.  However, momentum has weakened since the start of the year, with sales volume in July rising two percent year-on-year, slightly slower than retail as a whole. Price inflation for products and services in the health sector accelerated from 5.3 percent year-on-year for July 2016 to seven percent for July 2017.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, General Dealer sales have underperformed, with sales volumes falling 0.3 percent year-on-year in July, and the value of retail sales down 1.1 percent over the past 12 months.
“Consumers spent less and consumed less, partly because inflation has eroded their spending power. South Africa’s CPI increased 4.6 percent, driven largely by a 6.8 percent rise in food prices,” says Quinlan.

S.A Consumer spending turns upward in face of tight economic conditions

Linda Trim | Giant Leap
Sitting and working at a desk for long hours may feel far removed from being a professional athlete but to improve at your job there is a principle you can borrow from them: rest.
Linda Trim, Director at workplace specialists Giant Leap, said:”If you want to improve at your job or any activity — from triathlons to theoretical mathematics to working productively — the method for getting better is remarkably similar.
“And it requires a key thing many of us neglect: rest.”
Trim noted that the key to improvement and continued success is finding a balance between stress and rest. “Contrary to what many of the productivity-obsessed may think, rest is as important as the stress of hard work.”
It&#8217;s easy to see why athletes need rest. Physical exertion, like lifting weights or running long distances, puts stress on the body parts the athlete is trying to strengthen. Those physical challenges actually damage the body. You aren&#8217;t getting stronger when you lift weight — you are tearing muscle fibers and getting weaker.
It&#8217;s only during the rest and recovery period that your body begins to heal and adapt so it&#8217;s better prepared for future stress.
This the fundamental principle behind basic athletic training.
A similar principle works for creative or professional work too.
Research has shown that a cycle of work and rest is key for people learning to master a skill, trying to be productive at the office, or striving for a creative breakthrough.
Psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi — renowned for his work on the concept of “flow&#8221; (fully immersed in an activity, in the zone) — spent decades interviewing geniuses from diverse fields  including inventors, artists, scientists, and writers.
“The research found that the brightest minds spend their time either pursuing an activity with ferocious intensity, or engaging in complete restoration and recovery, “said Trim.
“This approach not only prevents creative burnout and cognitive fatigue, but it also fosters breakthrough ideas and discoveries.&#8221;
Top performers follow a cycle of total immersion into their work, followed by a disconnected period of rest and recovery. Other productivity researchers have also suggested that regular breaks are essential for people who perform best in fields ranging from computer programming to agricultural work.
This cycle of intense work followed by a real breaks enables the &#8220;eureka&#8221; moments — since these revelations usually come when the mind is disconnected from work.
So when your energy runs low at work or you get stumped on a task, that&#8217;s the time to take a break.
“Get away from what you are doing for at least five minutes — longer if you are particular stressed — and do something that gives your mind a rest from what you were focusing on,” Trim advised.
That could involve taking a walk, sitting outside, or even taking a shower, but half-hearted breaks spent browsing the internet aren&#8217;t restorative enough to take your mind out of work mode.
The hard part is actually doing this.
“Many of us have been told before that it&#8217;s important to take breaks, yet we still eat lunch at our desks, half-working and half-browsing the internet,” Trim concluded.

The fitness principle you should apply at work to be more productive

The world’s poorest continent continued to grow more generous according to a yearly index of charitable giving released on Tuesday, bucking the trend of otherwise declining signs of charity worldwide.
Africa was in a 2016 survey the only continent to report a continent-wide increase of its index generosity score when compared to its five-year average.
The score is a combined measure of respondents in 139 countries who were asked whether they had given money to a good cause, volunteered their time and helped a stranger.
“Despite the many challenges our continent is facing, it is encouraging to see that generosity continues to grow,” said Gill Bates, Southern Africa’s CEO for the Charities Aid Foundation (CAF) that commissioned the poll.
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But globally, donating money and helping a stranger fell by nearly 2 percent, while volunteering dropped about 1 percent, the index showed.
From the United States to Switzerland and Singapore to Denmark, the index showed that the planet’s 10 richest countries by GDP per capita, for which data was available, saw declines in their generosity index score.
Myanmar, for the fourth consecutive year, held the top position of the World Giving Index as the most generous country.
Nine in ten of those surveyed in the Southeast Asian nation said they had donated money during the previous month.
Indonesia ranked second on the combined measure of generosity, overtaking the United States which held that position in last year’s index.
A star performer, CAF said, was the East African nation of Kenya, which jumped from twelfth to third place in a single year.
Yemen, the Middle East’s poorest country, which has been grappling with the effects of civil war ranked bottom of the World Giving Index.
The index is primarily based on data from a global poll of 146,000 respondents by market research firm Gallup.

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