Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt: who will emerge as UK PM?

With the impending departure of Theresa May, the United Kingdom is on the verge of welcoming a new prime minister, and all signs point to Boris Johnson taking the helm. However, Johnson's tenure is expected to be overshadowed by the persistent specter of Brexit. As October 31 looms on the horizon, the deadline for the UK's departure from the European Union, the question on everyone's mind is whether Johnson or his rival Jeremy Hunt can deliver on the promise to leave, and at what cost? Amid the myriad of uncertainties surrounding Brexit, Alex DeRota, a professor at Birmingham City University and director of its Centre for Brexit Studies, provides crucial insights into the potential economic and political ramifications facing the UK. DeRota highlights the challenges Johnson will face in navigating the complex web of parliamentary approval needed to fulfill his Brexit ambitions. While Johnson's bold rhetoric on Brexit may have won him the Conservative leadership, DeRota cautions that turning those promises into reality will require substantial political finesse and coalition-building. The economic fallout of a no-deal Brexit, according to DeRota, could be severe, with estimates suggesting a potential 2% hit to GDP, rising unemployment rates, a sharp decline in house prices, and increased government borrowing. These dire consequences could reverberate across the UK's manufacturing sectors, particularly impacting industries like automotive that have benefited from EU membership. Moreover, the prospect of striking new trade deals outside the EU poses a dual challenge for the UK. While some view Brexit as an opportunity to forge closer economic ties with regions like sub-Saharan Africa, DeRota points out the logistical hurdles that must be overcome. Negotiating comprehensive trade deals takes time and resources, something the UK currently lacks in the wake of Brexit uncertainty. Additionally, the UK risks jeopardizing its existing trade agreements with sub-Saharan Africa, as the EU has been a key proponent of opening up trade channels with the region. As Johnson prepares to step into the prime minister's role, DeRota identifies the biggest pitfall that awaits him - his own personality and character. Johnson's reputation for off-the-cuff remarks, lack of attention to detail, and credibility issues could prove to be significant obstacles in managing the intense scrutiny that comes with being the UK's leader. With a slim parliamentary majority and potential challenges from within his own party, Johnson faces a delicate balancing act in deciding whether to work with the current parliament or seek a mandate through a risky election. In conclusion, the road ahead for the UK under Boris Johnson's leadership is fraught with challenges and uncertainties. As the Brexit deadline looms closer, the new prime minister will have to navigate turbulent political waters, manage economic repercussions, and strive to uphold the UK's global trade relationships. Whether Johnson can emerge as a unifying force amid the chaos of Brexit remains to be seen, but one thing is certain - the challenges he faces are formidable and the stakes are high.