Addressing Nigeria’s wheat supply challenges

Wheat prices have soared to a new record high of $453 per tonne in the European market following India's ban on wheat exports due to the impact of a heat wave on output. The move by India adds to the global trend of food protectionism, which is causing shortages globally and exacerbating inflation pressures in major economies like the US and UK. This ban, coupled with similar actions taken by other countries like Indonesia and Egypt, is expected to worsen the global inflationary environment. Nigeria, a country heavily reliant on wheat imports, is particularly vulnerable to these developments. With domestic production meeting only 1% of local demand, Nigeria spends approximately $2 billion on wheat imports annually. The recent Russia-Ukraine conflict has further strained Nigeria's wheat supply, leading to a significant increase in the country's importation bill. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has initiated efforts to enhance local wheat production through its Anchor Borrowers Program. However, challenges such as poor seedling distribution, access to funding, mechanization, and insecurity in major wheat production regions like the North-East continue to hinder progress in the wheat value chain. These obstacles highlight the urgent need for Nigeria to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat production. As Nigeria navigates these medium to long-term challenges, the immediate impact of the global wheat crisis is expected to result in price hikes for essential commodities like bread, confectionery, and noodles. Bread makers have already indicated plans to raise prices by 50%, reflecting the strain on the wheat supply chain. Additionally, the depreciating Naira and high energy costs further contribute to the inflationary pressures facing the country. Looking ahead, alternative crops like cassava have been proposed as potential substitutes for wheat in bread production. However, previous attempts to incorporate cassava into the wheat mix have faced challenges related to quality and consumer acceptance. Despite the hurdles, exploring innovative solutions like cassava integration remains crucial to mitigating the impact of the ongoing wheat crisis on Nigeria's food security and economy.