Standard Bank’s Goolam Ballim on 2024 SONA expectations

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa's upcoming State of the Nation Address for 2024 has investors eagerly waiting for announcements on plans to address the nation's power shortages and logistics crisis. Goolam Ballim, Chief Economist at Standard Bank, joined CNBC Africa to share insights on what can be expected from the President's speech. Ballim predicts that the tone of the address will celebrate the African National Congress (ANC)'s successes over the past 30 years, while also acknowledging recent failures in delivering on long-term promises. He highlights the ANC's role in improving power generation but notes that overall conditions are improving despite, not because of, the ANC's efforts. The President is likely to touch upon commitments made last year and advancements in energy infrastructure, including collaborations with the private sector. With the ANC facing challenges in maintaining its majority in the upcoming elections, the speech holds strategic importance beyond just a celebratory tone. The party risks losing control in key provinces like Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, which have significant economic and demographic significance. The outcome of the elections could shape a new era of coalition politics in South Africa. Ballim also reflects on the economic growth trajectory under different presidents since democracy, pointing out the challenges faced by the current administration inherited from previous regimes and exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. He anticipates a slight improvement in growth rates but emphasizes the need for stronger growth to address socio-economic issues effectively. Looking at the broader African context, Ballim shares insights on growth prospects in various regions, with a more optimistic view for East Africa compared to West Africa. He underscores the impact of geopolitical tensions globally on economic prospects and highlights the shift towards new technologies like artificial intelligence and emerging ideologies affecting commercial landscapes. The conversation ends with a lighthearted exchange on unrelated topics, showcasing a blend of serious economic analysis and casual banter.