Can Ghana avoid another Eurobond default?

As Ghana grapples with the restructuring of over 13 billion dollars of international bonds and aims to conclude talks with bondholders by June this year, Arnold Dublin-Green, Chief Investment Officer at Cordros Asset Management, sheds light on the West African financial landscape in a recent CNBC Africa interview. The discussion covered a range of topics, from the performance of the Nigerian banking sector to the implications of recent political developments in Senegal on the BRVM. Let's delve into the key points highlighted in the interview. One of the main takeaways was the positive outlook for the Nigerian banking sector, with significant activity and potential transformations expected in the coming years. Dublin-Green noted that the recent recapitalization conversations and the two-year timeline for banks to raise capital could lead to a major shake-up in the sector. He expressed optimism about the growth prospects for banks like Access Bank, GT Co, and Zenit, while also highlighting opportunities for tier two banks to explore fundraising options. Shifting focus to the BRVM and Senegal, Dublin-Green highlighted the impact of political developments on the markets. With Senegal's new president bringing stability to the region, there is cautious optimism for a market rebound. However, uncertainties linger as investors wait to see how the new administration shapes up. The arrest of candidates and disruptions in telecommunication services have affected market dynamics, particularly for companies like Sonatel. Discussing monetary policies in Nigeria and Ghana, Dublin-Green emphasized the divergent paths the two countries are taking. Ghana, recovering from a major crisis with inflation soaring to 50%, has started to see improvements, allowing for some easing of monetary policy. On the other hand, Nigeria, facing high inflation rates of over 31%, has been implementing rate hikes to control inflation and stabilize the currency. While Ghana may adopt a dovish approach with potential rate cuts, Nigeria is likely to maintain a tightening stance to address economic challenges. In conclusion, when asked whether he is bullish on West Africa, Dublin-Green responded with a resounding 'yes,' highlighting the turning points in the region's financial landscape. As countries navigate through economic cycles and policy decisions, the outlook remains positive for potential growth and stability. With ongoing developments shaping the markets, investors and stakeholders are closely monitoring the evolving dynamics in the region.