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<p>Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria says the bank will add milk and other dairy products to the list of items restricted from accessing the official FX market. Tope Laseinde, Head of Asset and Liability Management at Access Bank joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


CBN to add milk & dairy products to forex restriction list

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<p>The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) says it will begin a monthly assessment of the Loan to Deposit ratio of Deposit Money Banks from the 30th of September when the deadline to keep the ratio at 60 per cent ends. Ronak Ghadia, Director and Sub-Saharan Africa Banking Analyst at EFG Hermes Research joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


Why this analyst thinks the CBN’s imposition of minimum loan to deposit ratio on banks is negative

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<p>In assessing the recent initiatives by the Central Bank of Nigeria, Coronation Merchant Bank (CMB) says the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is trying to unlock excess liquidity trapped within the banking system in the hope that it will be channelled towards the real economy. Guy Czartoryski, Head of Research at Coronation Merchant Bank joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


Coronation: CBN trying to unlock excess liquidity trapped in banking system

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<p>The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) capped the placement of the daily deposit through its Standing Deposit Facility, to 2 billion naira, effective from today. Nnamdi Nwizu, Co-Managing Partner at Comercio Partners joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


CBN limits daily standing deposit facility to 2bn naira

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<p>Fitch Ratings says the requirement for Nigerian banks to have a loan-to-deposit ratio of at least 60 per cent at the end of September is credit-negative for Nigeria&#8217;s banking sector. Muyiwa Oni, Regional Head; Equity Research at Standard Bank Group joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


CBN’s loan to deposit ratio requirement credit negative for Nigerian banks – Fitch

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<p>The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has set new targets for Nigeria&#8217;s Microfinance banks in its revised National Financial Inclusion Strategy.  With a target of 774 new bank accounts per year in view, the CBN wants each branch of every Microfinance bank to acquire 64 new customers per month. Rogers Nwoke, President of the National Association of Microfinance Banks joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


CBN’s new target for Microfinance Banks

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<p>Governor of Nigeria&#8217;s Central Bank says the apex banks development finance efforts have been driven by the need to reduce reliance on crude as smuggling and dumping over the years have led to a demise of Agriculture.</p>


Central Bank of Nigeria to improve drive for non-oil exports

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<p>Nigeria&#8217;s National Pensions Commission and the Central Bank of Nigeria are currently exploring a framework where workers under the contributory pensions scheme can access 25 per cent of their contributions for personal home investments. Niyi Falade, CEO of Crusader Sterling Pensions joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


Nigeria eyes share of pensions for mortgage industry

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<p>The Central Bank of Nigeria says availability of both secured and unsecured credit to households increased in the first quarter of the year off the back of higher appetite for risk and improved economic outlook. Paul Alaje, Senior Economist at SPM Professionals joins CNBC Africa to explore ways to improve credit conditions in Nigeria.</p>


Improving Nigeria’s credit outlook

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<p>Mixed reactions have trailed the decision of the Central Bank of Nigeria and Bankers’ Committee to set up a National Microfinance Bank Rogers Nwoke, President of the National Association of Microfinance Bank joins CNBC Africa to share his perspective on this.</p>


NAMB responds to CBN’s proposed national MfB

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<p>Nigeria&#8217;s Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to announce its first policy decision for the year later today. Emmanuel Odiaka, Fixed Income and Forex Analyst joins CNBC Africa to discuss the trends that are likely to impact CBN’s decision.</p>


What to expect from Nigeria’s MPC meeting

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<p>Following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s new policy on the manhandling of naira notes, CNBC Africa took to the street of Lagos to find out reactions.</p>


Nigerians speak out on ‘new policy on the manhandling of naira notes’

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<p>Vetiva Capital Management says Nigeria&#8217;s markets are likely to be steered by the upcoming elections and rising global interest rates in the second half of the year. Ifedayo Olowoporoku, Analyst at Vetiva Capital Management joins CNBC Africa to unpack the report.</p>


Vetiva Capital Management’s outlook for Nigerian markets

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<p>Financial Derivatives says the cumulative transactions on the CBN&#8217;s investors and exporter’s foreign exchange window has risen to 18.4 billion dollars, as portfolio flows into the country increased.</p>


Transactions at FX window for investors/exports hit $18.4bn

<p>Nigeria must consider selling stakes in joint ventures with oil majors and other assets as talks to borrow abroad have not succeeded yet and would in any case not generate enough funds to stimulate economic recovery, the leader of the Senate said.</p>
<p>Senate President Bukola Saraki, the third most powerful official in Africa&#8217;s biggest economy, also said the oil producer might struggle with recession for up to nine months or even longer unless it got serious about attracting investors.</p>
<p>The government said this month it had approved loans from China, the World Bank, Japan and the African Development Bank, but Saraki, whose relations with the president have cooled since last year, said such talks were still ongoing with no deals yet.</p>
<p>&#8220;There is a big hole now in the fiscal deficit because that funding is not coming through. So we&#8217;ve got to look for alternative ways to fund that,&#8221; Saraki said in a joint interview with the Financial Times on Monday when asked about the loans.</p>
<p>The government has said it plans to borrow as much as $10 billion, with half of that coming from foreign sources, including a planned $1 billion Eurobond issue, to fund a budget deficit of 2.2 trillion naira ($7.21 billion) and boost an economy hammered by low oil prices and hard currency shortages.</p>
<p>Saraki said that even if the loan talks succeeded, the amount raised would not be enough to plug the hole in public finances. &#8220;My take is that even if it does come through, it&#8217;s money too little, too late,&#8221; he said, referring to the loan talks.</p>
<p>He said Nigeria needed to sell stakes in oil and gas joint ventures, oil exploration contracts and refineries to raise funds. &#8220;In my view, I really can&#8217;t see any other pathway to recovery. We need investors, we need to raise capital.&#8221;</p>
<p>Such an asset sale would be necessary even if global crude prices recovered to $70 a barrel and Nigeria managed to restore oil production to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) with an end to militant attacks in the Niger Delta oil hub, Saraki said. Officials say the attacks have reduced output by 700,000 bpd.</p>
<p>Saraki said Nigeria could overcome recession in six to nine months if swift action was taken &#8212; a more downcast view than that of the government, which has forecast a quick recovery.</p>
<p>Central bank governor Godwin Emefiele was due to hold a news conference at around 1315 GMT after a meeting of the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee. The finance minister said on Monday the central bank should lower interest rates so that the government can borrow domestically to boost the economy.</p>
<p>Economists polled by Reuters last week predicted that the central bank would keep its key interest rate at 14 percent and reiterate its focus on resuscitating growth.</p>
<p>The government has said it is considering asset sales, but has given no details.</p>
<p>&#8220;If we do things right, the confidence will come in,&#8221; Saraki said. &#8220;If we carry on waiting for government revenues to go up, if we don&#8217;t do anything seen as thinking out of the box&#8221; the recession could drag on longer.</p>
<p>Nigeria&#8217;s 2016 budget was the largest in the nation&#8217;s history, but the oil price drop and Delta attacks have left the government scrambling for funds.</p>
<p>Saraki is from the same ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) as President Muhammadu Buhari, who was elected in March 2015 on a promise to end graft and mismanagement in the West African nation.</p>
<p>But relations between the two have been strained since Saraki ran unopposed for the position of Senate president last year, mainly with the backing of the opposition. He was not the APC&#8217;s preferred candidate.</p>
<p>(1 = 305.0000 naira)</p>
<p> </p>
<p>(Reporting by Libby George; Editing by Ulf Laessing and Philippa Fletcher)﻿</p>
<p> </p>


Oil asset sales may help Nigeria stimulate economic recovery

<p class="normal">There are many innovative solutions available to the Central Bank of Nigeria, but is it taking advantage of them, or just going with the old way of doing things?﻿</p>
<p class="normal">Earlier in August, in a sudden move, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) changed its International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) policy. The change was so drastic that the licences of all money transfer services, save three, have been revoked. The three remaining are old players in the scene relatively speaking &#8211; Western Union, Moneygram, and Ria.</p>
<p class="normal">The decision was made in the interests of curbing the growing unlicensed money transmitters operating in the country, and also &#8211; in the words of a press release &#8211; to ensure that no ‘attempt aimed at undermining the country’s foreign exchange regime’ is condoned.</p>
<p class="normal">Much has been written on the reasons, however, I’m interested in this from an innovation point of view, and from the point of view of the many people who were using newer, more innovative money transfer solutions.</p>
<p class="normal">Several startups have been finding more technological, and cheaper ways, to allow users to transfer money. The issue is a rather simple one. The African diaspora is huge, and many Nigerians need easy and cheap solutions that will help them get money to loved ones in their home country. It’s got to be an easy transaction without a lot of friction. There’s a good reason why Nigerians are sending money home &#8211; they didn’t’t just wake up in the morning and decide it’s a good day to send money. There are obligations, needs, and reasons. After all, most of them are somewhere else in the world because they found they could get a decent job that could help with their responsibilities at home.</p>
<p class="normal">Several startups like WorldRemit, MFS Africa, Transferwise, or Azimo found solutions for these people where money transfers can be almost seamless. Many of the solutions make use of Digital Payment Services (DPS) where money can be sent using mobile phone apps and SMS services, in partnership with retailers and service providers.</p>
<p class="normal">The CBN announcement has its pros and its cons. The pros are obvious &#8211; better control, more safety. There obviously needs to be adequate and effective regulation. It’s good that CBN consolidate the numerous avenues to send money into the country &#8211; with only three partners to work with, managing fraud and laundering is much, much easier and effective. That’s a plus.</p>
<p class="normal">The cons, however, are much more complicated. There is a question about these three providers that needs to be answered. All three have been around for a long time, but with that also comes antiquated systems and unnecessary costs in today’s technological landscape. Do these partners have the capability, or the plans, to provide seamless transactions for users at a low cost? In order to get at the big fish involved in laundering and fraud, the common person is being cut off from valuable services that are really changing lives.</p>
<div id="inarticle_wrapper_div">Does the diaspora have to now go to a Western Union agent in person, fill out the necessary forms, bring in all the necessary paperwork such as proof of address etc., conduct the transaction and then send the necessary Money Transfer Control Number (MTCN) to the person they’re sending it to, and then pay the fees? At the time of writing, it costs 9.99 USD to send 5 USD to Nigeria if you’re sending cash! Sure you can do it online, or make use of the Western Union app, but then you can only make use of a VISA or Mastercard credit card to do it &#8211; something that many Africans do not have. Many do not even have bank accounts.</div>
<p class="normal">The beauty of DPS in recent years has been the ability to circumvent these options and pay someone directly to their cellphone, with digital money they can actually use. Or if they want the cash, they can draw it from hundreds of agents around the country. DPS also allows you to pay for goods and services, and then send a coupon or code via SMS to someone else, who then simply pick up those goods and services from the relevant retailer or service provider. While the three players above provide similar services by allowing users to pay bills for others, it’s still not exactly the same thing.</p>
<p class="normal">In my opinion, remittance itself has to disappear from the customer’s experience. Amazon has showed us the value of the ‘one-click payment’ service. Amazon are also a good example of how borders are closing &#8211; I can order almost anything from Amazon from almost anywhere, and have it delivered to just about anywhere. The costs will change, but the borders don’t mean much. This is the sort of thing that needs to start happening in the money transfers space. For example, instead of sending money home to Nigeria, why can’t I be allowed to pay for groceries and medical supplies from select partners, and then those goods are delivered to my loved one’s door? That kind of thinking is what needs to enter the money transfer space, and in the case of many startups, it has.</p>
<p class="normal">I think it’s a great that CBN has chosen three solid partners in solving their problem, but often in Africa we focus so much on regulatory framework without the bigger African picture in mind. Perhaps these three players don’t have everything in place now to meet the true needs of many, many Africans &#8211; but do they have the plans and strategies to do so? Or are they still thinking in one, limited context? It’s not about remittance but rather about the end result.</p>
<p class="normal">In theory, the partner selection by the CBN is crucial. If they just picked the biggest remittance providers because of who they are, based on historical and e ven political relationships, that’s not helping us all in the long run. In my opinion, innovation is key here, and we have the technology in DPS.</p>
<p class="normal">I love the example of Tanzania. In 2008, less than one percent of Tanzanian adults had access to mobile financial services, but by 2013 this shot up to 90 percent. As I explore in detail in my bookDisrupting Africa: The Rise and Rise of African Innovation, these services are effectively offering a huge amount of people the security and benefits of bank accounts (these days, even interest is being paid out) &#8211; it’s making it easy for people to invest into the financial system. It’s just that the financial system is looking very different!</p>
<p class="normal">The Bank of Tanzania (BOT) has taken a “test and learn” approach, inviting the private sector to partner with them in opening up solutions and freeing up financial services to the common person. &#8220;We have learned that new technologies that augur well with the Central Bank&#8217;s objective need to be nurtured and monitored closely to ensure they do not cause any financial instability or reputational risk that may affect the country&#8217;s payment systems. This approach has made digital payment services in Tanzania a success story,&#8221; says Prof Benno Ndulu, governor of BOT. Colaboration has been key.</p>
<p class="normal">Africa can leapfrog traditional infrastructure and find new solutions to its challenges. In the case of money transfer solutions, there is a lot on the table. My hope is CBN and its partners have a plan &#8211; for the sake of the long term.﻿﻿</p>
<p> </p>


OPINION: Are Nigeria's new money transfer policies good for the people?

<p class="doctitle">What have they done now?This week the Central Bank of Nigeria locked out nine banks from participating in the interbank foreign exchange market for failing to remit US$ government deposits worth US$2.3bn to the Central Bank as part of the Treasury Single Account directive, first implemented in September 2015.</p>
<p class="doctitle">It was our understanding that back in 2015, when the TSA was first implemented, that the CBN, cognisant of the tight US$ liquidity position of the banking sector, had granted a moratorium on the repayment of the same. We are therefore surprised by the sudden reversal in policy, especially since the US$ liquidity position of the banks, in our view, has progressively gotten worse.</p>
<p class="doctitle"><strong>Why the sudden change in heart? </strong></p>
<p class="doctitle">Although we do not dispute the underlying logic of TSA implementation – the CBN should be the sole banker to the sovereign – Tuesday&#8217;s directive has the feel of a summary order from the Presidency rather than a practical working solution.</p>
<p class="doctitle">For one, the sums being mentioned in the media do not even tally with the industry-wide data published by the CBN: according to the former, banks are on the hook for US$2.3bn while according to the latter, total public sector FX deposits were just US$1.4-1.5bn at the end of July. But more importantly, any institution with a working knowledge of banks operations and balance sheets – as the CBN undoubtedly has – would know that overnight implementation of the TSA was not a realistic possibility. So beyond the immediate liquidity risk to the banks (which we discuss later in this note), this news will only add to perceptions that the CBN is not in full control of its regulatory functions.</p>
<p class="doctitle"><strong>How does this affect the Naira?</strong></p>
<p class="doctitle">To the extent that the banks named in the directive will need to come up with USD liquidity immediately, we think TSA implementation will only pile more (downward) pressure on the exchange rate, which had already weakened from NGN328.25/US$ to NGN342.00/US$ as of this writing. However, as we argue throughout this note, we do not think that full and immediate implementation is possible. The affected banks do not have the required US$ liquidity to refund the TSA deposits, and the FX market is not deep enough for them to purchase those sums over any short-term horizon.</p>
<p class="doctitle">One possible work-around is that the CBN sells them US$ to cover existing (past due) trade obligations, on the agreement that the resulting liquidity would then be used to re-fund TSA deposits. This would enable (at least part) compliance with a directive that we assume is driven by the Presidency, with no net impact on reserves for CBN, and minimal impact on the exchange rate.</p>
<p class="doctitle"><strong>Is this a big deal for the banks? </strong></p>
<p class="doctitle">Yes. At a headline level, the US$2.3bn of deposits represents 4.0% of total sector deposits, a shock the banks should easily be able to absorb. However the TSA deposits contribute a significantly higher proportion of banks US$ deposits; as highlighted in the table below, we estimate the TSA deposits account for almost 25.1% of bank’s total US$ deposits. With an average US$ loan-to-deposit ratio of 121.9%, we believe bank’s US$ liquidity positions are already quite stretched.</p>
<p class="doctitle">The TSA repayments combined with the repayment of outstanding debt maturities will, in our view, significantly stretch banks’ dollar liquidity, especially since banks have little scope for liquidating their US$ assets (most of their US$ assets are in the form of loans to the oil &amp; gas and power sectors, whose durations have been increased significantly in the past eighteen months as part of efforts by banks to mitigate credit risk). </p>
<p class="doctitle"><strong>How bad can it be?</strong></p>
<p class="doctitle">We have argued in the past, that a banking crisis in Nigeria will not be crystallised by significant asset quality deterioration or capital inadequacy; these are issues which the banks can defer by either restructuring their balance sheets or getting a temporary moratorium from the CBN. However, as we have seen for the Western banks during the global financial crisis, a liquidity crisis cannot be “kicked into the long grass” and gradually resolved over time.</p>
<p class="doctitle">Given the magnitude of the figures being quoted, we think enforcement of the policy could potentially cause significant liquidity problems for some of the banks involved and that in turn could become a systemic problem for the entire sector.</p>
<p class="doctitle"><strong>Can’t they just bail them out i.e. AMCON 2?</strong></p>
<p class="doctitle">No, unlike the 2009 crisis, the issues that the Nigerian Banks face is on their US$ balance sheet. Thus, unlike 2009, the CBN cannot bail out the sector by issuing and then monetising promissory notes (AMCON bonds). In case of a full scale crisis, the banking sector will need a “hard currency” bailout which the CBN or Nigeria cannot afford. To put things in context, the aggregate TSA deposits of US$2.3 is almost 10% of the countries FX reserves.</p>
<p class="doctitle">Are we likely to see a policy reversal (again)? Given the current fundamentals of the country, we think the negative impact of a full scale banking crisis far outweighs any positive benefits that the government will accrue from additional US$ liquidity on its own balance sheet (especially when the amount in consideration of US$2.3bn is not that significant). We therefore think the CBN might re-consider its policy decision.</p>
<p class="doctitle"><strong>One man’s poison is another man’s cure. </strong></p>
<p class="doctitle">We think this development could have positive consequences for the banks not directly impacted by this policy directive. Specifically, within our universe, we think Guaranty Trust Bank, Zenith, Access and Stanbic IBTC profitability ratios could benefit from: a) an increase in trading revenue due to potential volatility of the Naira and increased market share in the interbank market (as most of their competitors are locked out); and b) like in H2, we think the banks could record significant revaluation gains due to a depreciation of the Naira. Of course, the tail risk of contagion from a full scale liquidity crisis would outweigh any of these benefits. </p>
<p class="doctitle"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="/media/19197052/cbn_graph_exotix_600x305.jpg"  width="600"  height="305" alt="CBN Graph Exotix"/>﻿</p>
<p><a href="http://research.exotix.co.uk/files/amf_exotix/project_1/Nigeria_banks_FX_TSA_24_Aug_2016.pdf"> READ THE FULL REPORT</a></p>
<p><a style="line-height: 1.42857;" href="http://research.exotix.co.uk/c/138rODBJ4NxFPFgDzWbhEp" target="_blank"></a>Ronak Gadhia, CFA; Alan Cameron </p>
<p>Website: <a style="line-height: 1.42857;" href="http://research.exotix.co.uk/c/138sRzUn10ako2HyuYPj0A" target="_blank">www.exotix.com﻿</a> </p>


CBN

CBN to add milk & dairy products to forex restriction list

Why this analyst thinks the CBN’s imposition of minimum loan to deposit ratio on banks is negative

Coronation: CBN trying to unlock excess liquidity trapped in banking system

CBN limits daily standing deposit facility to 2bn naira

CBN’s loan to deposit ratio requirement credit negative for Nigerian banks – Fitch

CBN’s new target for Microfinance Banks

Central Bank of Nigeria to improve drive for non-oil exports

Nigeria eyes share of pensions for mortgage industry

Improving Nigeria’s credit outlook

NAMB responds to CBN’s proposed national MfB

What to expect from Nigeria’s MPC meeting

Nigerians speak out on ‘new policy on the manhandling of naira notes’

Vetiva Capital Management’s outlook for Nigerian markets

Transactions at FX window for investors/exports hit $18.4bn

Oil asset sales may help Nigeria stimulate economic recovery

OPINION: Are Nigeria's new money transfer policies good for the people?

OPINION: The CBN – Shoot first think later

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CBN

CBN to add milk & dairy products to forex restriction list

Why this analyst thinks the CBN’s imposition of minimum loan to deposit ratio on banks is negative

Coronation: CBN trying to unlock excess liquidity trapped in banking system

CBN limits daily standing deposit facility to 2bn naira

CBN’s loan to deposit ratio requirement credit negative for Nigerian banks – Fitch

CBN’s new target for Microfinance Banks

Central Bank of Nigeria to improve drive for non-oil exports

Nigeria eyes share of pensions for mortgage industry

Improving Nigeria’s credit outlook

NAMB responds to CBN’s proposed national MfB

What to expect from Nigeria’s MPC meeting

Nigerians speak out on ‘new policy on the manhandling of naira notes’

Vetiva Capital Management’s outlook for Nigerian markets

Transactions at FX window for investors/exports hit $18.4bn

Oil asset sales may help Nigeria stimulate economic recovery

OPINION: Are Nigeria's new money transfer policies good for the people?

OPINION: The CBN – Shoot first think later

News Tips

Advertise With Us

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