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There was no hint of the drama to come when the African National Congress recalled South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma. This is what unfolded in the 12 days since.

This is what unfolded in the 12 days since

Reuters and CNBC Africa
South African Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa became president of the ANC on Monday after a vote decribed as the most pivotal moment for the party since it launched black-majority rule under Nelson Mandela 23 years ago.
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Ramaphosa, a 65-year-old union leader who became a businessman and is now one of South Africa’s richest people, won against his sole rival, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, 68. She is a former cabinet minister and the ex-wife of President Jacob Zuma.
The new ANC top six:
<ul>
<li>Deputy President &#8211; David Mabuza</li>
<li>Secretary-General &#8211; Ace Magashule</li>
<li>National Chairperson &#8211; Gwede Mantashe</li>
<li>Deputy Secretary-General &#8211; Jessie Duarte</li>
<li>Treasurer General &#8211; Paul Mashatile</li>
</ul>
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South Africa’s Ramaphosa wins election as ANC president

Battle lines were drawn on Monday for South Africa’s ANC as voting began to elect a new leader to succeed President Jacob Zuma as head of a party that has ruled since the end of apartheid but faced scandals and corruption allegations.
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The vote is perhaps the most pivotal moment for the ANC since it launched black-majority rule under Nelson Mandela’s leadership 23 years ago. With scandal and graft accusations having tainted Zuma’s presidency, the party is deeply divided.
Whoever emerges at the helm of the African National Congress, a 105-year-old liberation movement that dominates Africa’s most industrialized economy, is likely to become the country’s next president after elections in 2019.
A total of 4,776 delegates began casting their ballots in the early hours of Monday, the ANC said, to select between Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa and Zuma’s preferred candidate, his ex-wife and former cabinet minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.
Voting was still going on at 0530 GMT.
“Delegates are very exhausted,” an ANC source, who is a voting delegate, told Reuters. “I don’t know how they will run today’s sessions.”
Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma were the only candidates nominated for the ANC leadership at a conference in Johannesburg on Sunday night.
In a boost to Ramaphosa, courts ruled that officials from some provinces seen as supporting Dlamini-Zuma had been elected illegally and were barred from the conference.
The rand currency gained after that news on Friday, extending its gains to more than 2 percent on Sunday..
“The rand is stronger on the likelihood of Cyril Ramaphosa being elected ANC head,” said Brett Birkenstock, a director at Overberg Asset Management. “The markets favor Ramaphosa and expect him to improve the economy.”
The currency, which is expected to be volatile until the new ANC leader is announced, had trimmed most of its gains early on Monday to trade steady at 13.0800 to the dollar by 0553 GMT, off an earlier 3-1/2-month high of 12.7300.
A winner had been expected to be announced on Sunday, but long delays led to the vote being pushed back repeatedly.
ANC spokeswoman Khusela Sangoni said voting was expected to be completed by midday and results announced later on Monday.
“The important discussions around policy will get underway this morning and voting will continue on the sidelines of that,” Sangoni told state television SABC. “And that announcement that we are all waiting for will happen am sure in the early part of the afternoon.”
<h3>LOSE RACE</h3>
On Saturday, Zuma announced plans to raise subsidies for tertiary colleges and universities, a move analysts said was timed to appeal to the party’s more populist members allied to Dlamini-Zuma, the first woman nominated as an ANC presidential candidate.
Zuma has faced allegations of corruption since he became head of state in 2009 but has denied any wrongdoing.
Ramaphosa, a former trade union leader who became a businessman and is now one of the richest people in South Africa, has vowed to fight corruption and revitalize the economy, a message hailed by foreign investors.
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Dlamini-Zuma pledged during her campaign to tackle the racial inequality that has persisted since the end of white-minority rule.
Ramaphosa drew the majority of nominations from party branches scattered across the country. But the complexity of the leadership race makes it uncertain he will win the final count.
“The race is extremely close,” said Susan Booysen, a political analyst at the University of Witwatersrand’s School of Governance in Johannesburg.
“Before today we said Dlamini-Zuma could emerge as a winner. Even if there is a strong lead in terms of branch nominations by the Ramaphosa camp, it’s not clear-cut.”
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Additional reporting by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo and Ed Stoddard; Writing by James Macharia; Editing by Paul Simao, Clarence Fernandez and Michael Perry
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South Africa’s ANC votes for new leadership

South Africa’s ruling African National Congress elects a new party leader to succeed President Jacob Zuma at a conference starting on Saturday.
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The winner will be favorite to become president of the country after a 2019 national election.
Below are the main ANC leadership hopefuls. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Cyril Ramaphosa are the two front runners.
<h3>NKOSAZANA DLAMINI-ZUMA</h3>
The former minister and chairwoman of the African Union Commission has served in the cabinets of every South African president in the post-apartheid era.
Dlamini-Zuma was married to President Zuma for over a decade and has four children with him.
She is backed by the ANC’s influential women’s and youth leagues, as well as by Zuma and provincial party leaders close to him.
<h3>CYRIL RAMAPHOSA</h3>
The deputy president and former trade union leader is one of South Africa’s richest people.
Ramaphosa played an important role in the negotiations to end apartheid and in the drafting of South Africa’s progressive 1996 constitution.
He is supported by a diverse group of labour unions, communists and ANC members disillusioned with Zuma.
<h3>ZWELI MKHIZE</h3>
The ANC’s treasurer general is one of the ruling party’s “top six” senior leaders.
A medical doctor by training, Mkhize also served as a party boss in the KwaZulu-Natal province, from where Zuma and Dlamini-Zuma hail.
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Some analysts see Mkhize as a compromise candidate for ANC leader who could reconcile the opposing factions supporting Dlamini-Zuma and Ramaphosa.
<h3>LINDIWE SISULU</h3>
The human settlements minister is the daughter of anti-apartheid activist Walter Sisulu, a close friend of Nelson Mandela.
Sisulu says Ramaphosa approached her to be his running mate but she turned down the offer.
<h3>JEFF RADEBE</h3>
The minister in the presidency has also held senior cabinet positions including public enterprises minister.
He served in underground structures of the ANC during white minority rule and was imprisoned on Robben Island, where the apartheid government kept political prisoners.
<h3>MATHEWS PHOSA</h3>
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The former premier of the Mpumalanga province has also worked as the ANC’s treasurer general.
Phosa has demanded that nominations for ANC leader in Mpumalanga be re-run, as he says he has proof that party members were told how to vote.
Mpumalanga’s current premier is a Zuma loyalist, David Mabuza, who is viewed by some as a kingmaker in the ANC race.
<h3>BALEKA MBETE</h3>
The speaker of South Africa’s lower house of parliament also briefly served as deputy president.
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She has said she has held talks with other leadership hopefuls to discuss the possibility of working together.
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Reporting by Alexander Winning; Editing by James Macharia and Giles Elgood
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Factbox: Key players in South Africa’s ANC leadership race

Lesiba Mothata and Leon Greyling | Alexander Forbes Investments
There is nothing new under the sun. What we are witnessing in South Africa &#8211; higher debt levels and political leaders showing cronyism &#8211; is reminiscent of countless other outcomes in emerging market countries.
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Of particular interest is the Indonesian case of the late 1990s. Prior to the financial crisis in 1998, the second president of Indonesia, Hajji Suharto, presided over the country’s economy for 31 years and birthed a patronage system, which was his tool to maintain power. In exchange for political and financial support, Suharto gave powerful positions to his family, friends and enemies.
All these outcomes ring true in the African National Congress (ANC) of today. The elective conference, which starts on December 16, will see a display of ideological battles ahead of the expected announcement of a new leader.
The Indonesian example demonstrates that systems of patronage and cronyism do not work
— they fail spectacularly. Suharto’s unsustainable system was met with the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998, which exposed his economy to major losses — a sharp depreciation in the currency, a contraction in the GDP of close to 14%, the need for an external injection of funds from the International Monetary Fund to boost the fiscus, the systemic failure of the banking sector and a significant sell off of Indonesian assets by foreigners. By mid-1998, confronted with this reality, Suharto resigned from office.
The lesson here is that it is easy for an emerging market country (including South Africa) to slip into an undesirable spiral of political cronyism and credit ratings downgrades — it took Indonesia almost two decades to return to investment grade.
What is clear for South Africa in particular, however, is that negative political and economic outcomes would need to worsen before the country arrives at the crisis levels seen in Indonesia. South Africa is unique in that it has strong and functional institutions — an independent central bank and auditor general, an active judiciary, a free press, corporate businesses with solid balance sheets, a financial system of world repute and a constitutional democracy. The foundations, which were absent for Indonesia during its crisis, are solid and safeguard South Africa from adverse shocks, including those of a political nature.
Systems can withstand pressure only up to a certain point and even the strongest in the world can begin to erode and eventually crack. Political leaders have the power to nurture the country’s strong foundations, or destroy them completely.
It is hoped that the two prominent, or maybe more, ANC presidential candidates—Cyril Ramaphosa (CR), Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma (NDZ), or a ‘Unity personality’—will safeguard the institutional strengths of South Africa, whoever wins.
But the scenarios associated with each candidate are starkly divergent (at least in terms of how they have been perceived by markets), which indicates the importance of the ANC conference.
<ol>
<li>CR has put forward the need for a new deal on jobs, growth and transformation, which might have positive short and long term effects:</li>
</ol>
<ul>
<li>Rand strength</li>
<li>A potential increase in GDP growth</li>
<li>Fiscal prudence</li>
<li>Conventional monetary policy remaining entrenched</li>
</ul>
Less state intervention in the private sector is envisaged, with private sector fixed investment to be boosted.
<ol>
<li>NZD’s economic stance is less known because she has spent little time explaining it ahead of the conference. Without such information, it is assumed:</li>
</ol>
<ul>
<li>The status quo will prevail where fiscal policy continues to be weakened</li>
<li>State-owned enterprises are used for personal gain by those in authority</li>
<li>Patronage is protected</li>
<li>Populist viewpoints taking root on major issues (e.g. land expropriation)</li>
</ul>
<ol>
<li>In order to defuse factions within the ANC, there is an increasing ambition to elect a unifying candidate. Numerous names have been punted for this ‘Unity vote’, but Dr Zweli Mkhize has consistently positioned himself as such a personality. In the event he wins, market reaction will be muted but policy uncertainty will persist. Additional credit ratings downgrades would still ensue but the outcome would remain consistent with a ‘muddle through’ scenario with much less economic reform taking place.</li>
</ol>
It will be up to the three candidates to define their stance on the economy, but markets have already made firm assertions, with potential negative responses if NZD wins.
It is worth noting that if NDZ wins, it will take a lot to materially change the foundations of the country. Given the existing checks and balances at play in the economy, it would require a heavy hand to completely annihilate the architecture on which South Africa was founded &#8211; including the constitutionally entrenched independence of the central bank.
Financial markets have the ability to adjust and find a new form of expression, even during difficult political and economic times. Despite the tumultuous period where the Indonesian economy languished in non-investment grade for almost two decades, the Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index increased in value 12 fold between 1998 and 2017.
There is no need to panic about the outcomes from the ANC elective conference. Whatever the situation, there are always opportunities in difficult political environments. Equity markets can, perversely, become a hedge against cronyism and corruption &#8211; money is better invested in private markets, which have an effective self-correcting mechanism, as opposed to the public sector.

ANC elections Is there life after the vote?

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South Africa&#8217;s real gross domestic product growth rate was 2 per cent in the third quarter of 2017. The largest contributor to growth in GDP in the third quarter was the agriculture, forestry and fishing industry.

Markets, ratings agencies are pricing in a Ramaphosa win – Investec’s Annabel Bishop

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It looks like South Africa&#8217;s political landscape is going remain interesting for the foreseeable future; Dr Makhosi Khosa has created her own party and political analysts have labelled her move as unwise.

Markets have priced in a Ramaphosa win – analysts

Investors are using the forward options market to increase bets that South Africa’s Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa will win the race to become the next leader of the ruling African National Congress (ANC), positioning for a rally in the rand.
<div id="attachment_120551" style="width: 1034px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-120551" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="wp-image-120551 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Cyril-Ramaphosa-GovZA.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="727" />Photo: Government ZA</div>
The leadership battle between Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who has held several senior cabinet posts and is ex-wife of President Jacob Zuma, is too close to call with less than a month to go until the ANC’s December elective conference.
But indications that Ramaphosa &#8211; seen as more business-friendly than Dlamini-Zuma &#8211; is doing well in nominations by the ANC branches which send delegates to the conference mean investors are more confident he can win the race.
Options contracts expiring around Dec. 18, a day after the ANC is expected to reveal Zuma’s successor, are now commanding the highest prices, with some traders locking-in a rand exchange rate of 13.20 to the dollar versus today’s spot price of 13.70.
“Sentiment has definitely turned more positive for the rand. There’s a belief that Ramaphosa is a nose ahead of Dlamini-Zuma, even though the branch nominations aren’t cast in stone,” said Standard Bank’s executive head of rand trading Warrick Butler.
Implied volatility on one-month rand options contracts has fallen sharply since late last week, as this chart shows:
Implied volatility measures how much an asset such as a currency is expected to move in price. When it falls, investors believe a currency will follow a more predictable trajectory.
The rand’s fortunes have been closely tied to political outcomes over the past couple of years, with the currency rallying on any sign of an end to the corruption scandals and economic decline that have tainted Zuma’s time in office.
In August the rand gained around 2 percent when the parliament’s speaker allowed a vote of no-confidence against Zuma to be by secret ballot &#8211; though Zuma survived that vote.
Dlamini-Zuma, whose bid for the ANC’s top job is backed by her former husband, has alarmed some investors with talk of radical wealth redistribution.
Gillian van Heerden, a derivatives trader at Tradition Futures, said the volume of rand options traded on Monday was almost three times higher than the monthly average.
Investors are willing to pay a premium to protect themselves from big moves around the time the leadership is decided. The price of a one-month contract to trade the rand at a pre-agreed exchange rate on Tuesday was higher than options for other time periods, as the prices on this chart show:
Last week a poll showed Ramaphosa had secured the support of 65 percent of branches tallied, compared to Dlamini-Zuma’s 30 percent, which boosted appetite for the rand.
Over the weekend ANC officials in the Western Cape nominated Ramaphosa as their preferred candidate.
“The provisional results that came out on the weekend seem to lean towards Ramaphosa and that helped the rand strengthen yesterday, because he is seen as a change from the current administration,” van Heerden said.
She said market attention had shifted to the ANC conference after South Africa escaped a potentially painful double downgrade of its credit ratings last week.
The rand has been weighed down this year by political uncertainty and weak economic growth, which have triggered credit rating downgrades by all three major international rating agencies.
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Reporting by Mfueko Toyana and Alexander Winning; Editing by James Macharia and Peter Graff
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Rand investors increase bets South Africa’s Ramaphosa will replace Zuma

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The WGBI is the most used global bond index for both indexation and benchmark purposes and requires at least one rating agency between S&#038;P and Moody’s to assign an investment grade credit rating to the local currency government bonds for inclusion.

Why Goldman Sachs is buying into Ramaphosa’s New Deal

By Mike van der Westhuizen, Portfolio Manager, Citadel
During his 2017 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba, announced figures that surprised even the most bearish of forecasters. Although some fiscal slippage was widely expected, it was the frank transparency with which he delivered his speech that sent the market into panic. There were few positives for him to hide behind.
A tax shortfall of R50.8bn for the 2017/18 fiscal year would translate into a budget deficit of 4.3% of GDP, a 1.2 percentage point slippage on the figures announced in Pravin Gordhan’s last budget speech in February. With limited room to cut expenditure and little talk of additional revenue measures, for now funding this deficit will need to be done through the issuance of more government debt.
In the February Budget, Treasury had aimed to stabilise the debt to GDP ratio at 52.9% by the end of fiscal year 2018/19, but this was revised upwards significantly in the MTBPS to 59.7% in FY2020/21, with the acknowledgement that it could rise above 60% in 2022. Compare this to Moody’s and S&amp;P forecasts which had expected government debt ratios to peak at 53% and 54.9%, respectively over the medium term expenditure framework.
South Africa’s downgrading is no longer an “if” but a “when”. Both S&amp;P and Moody’s have reviews scheduled for 24 November and, while their recent rhetoric has pointed to a wait-and-see until after the ANC elective conference approach, it would not be surprising to see at least one of them pull the trigger sooner rather than later. However, more likely, we could see South Africa’s local currency bond rating be put on review for a downgrade on 24 November, in which case the rating agency has 60 to 90 days to make the move, a period which covers both the ANC elective conference and February 2018 budget. In any case, the negative outlook from the prior downgrade (S&amp;P on 3 April 2017 and Moody’s on 9 June 2017) needs to be resolved within 12 to 18 months, so a downgrade before the end of the first half of 2018 is inevitable.
As we head towards the December ANC elective conference the presidential race is wide open between the two front runners, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma (NDZ) and current deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa (CR17 as he has been dubbed). Without further clarity on who will next lead the ANC, the markets wait with bated breath. CR17 would be seen as the more market friendly candidate, while NDZ would be viewed as just an extension of the current president Zuma regime. With these two factions supposedly forming a rift in the ANC ranks, there is a slim chance that a compromise candidate could sneak in at the last minute.
Making a call on market reaction to either of the above two events is almost as difficult as predicting the outcomes of the events themselves. On the downgrade front, it can be argued that since the MTBPS the currency and bond markets have already priced in an imminent downgrade. Naturally the market could overreact to a confirmation that South Africa is officially sub-investment grade. In addition, if one was to factor in potential bond index exclusion from further downgrades, a large portion of the wall of money that has flowed into South Africa can just as quickly exit. This would almost certainly lead to further bond and currency weakness. On the other hand, we could see some short-term respite if the ratings agencies delay the fate.
On the political front, the market outcome could be seen as almost binary. A CR17 win could see a rally in the rand, bonds and SA facing equities, with arguably stronger reaction should the victory include a unified National Executive Committee (NEC). An NDZ win would spark the opposite, and it could be argued that the market has already priced in this status quo scenario to some extent.
Looking past the upcoming uncertainty, another wave of uncertainty will come unless bold steps are taken. The bottom line is that South Africa needs pro-growth economic policy that is ACTUALLY implemented and not just a regurgitation of a “wish list”. This would help to bolster the budget and the economy by sparking stronger revenue growth, purely from a resurgence in business and consumer confidence. Solve the low growth trap and a lot of other things fall into place. Regardless of what happens in late November and December, the road will remain bumpy until there is a unified ruling party. In the current politically sensitive landscape, real change looks unlikely for the time being.

South Africa’s downgrading is no longer an “if” but a “when” – Citadel

“ANC will rule until Jesus comes”, these words may come to haunt President Jacob Zuma in under three years.
As the ruling African National Congress’ (ANC’s) December conference nears, the liberation party is faced with two options: return to the ‘Mandela-Mbeki glory days’ or be forced into a coalition government.
Increasingly, it is becoming clearer that the party will at worst be out of government and at best in a coalition come 2019.
The cracks that used to be masked by the party’s well-oiled propaganda machinery no longer hold.
At the centre of these cracks are two competing interests. The first is the push to have incumbent President Jacob Zuma’s former wife, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, succeed him. The reasons for this range from political and ethnic dynamics to personal issues that involve the President, who himself faces a reported 783 criminal charges that may make his life difficult post-presidency.
On a more ideological scale, this faction is fighting for what they call ‘land re-possession with no compensation’, something that may appeal to an impoverished black majority that believes land is the answer to the endemic triple challenges of poverty, unemployment and inequality.
This however, could be a red herring considering that South Africa is a highly urbanised country with limited to no prospects open for urban youth to move back to the countryside to start farming.
The second competing centre revolves around Cyril Ramaphosa, a business mogul with <a href="https://www.forbes.com/profile/cyril-ramaphosa/">wealth running into the billions</a>. Many believe he is a business-friendly technocrat and will be able to run a clean and efficient government, not least because he cannot grow any sticky fingers. Those rooting for him are fighting for a return to former Presidents Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki’s traditions of inclusivity and shared growth.
What do we know so far?
NDZ17 – Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma 2017
Dlamini-Zuma is heavily reliant on support from the ANC Youth and Women’s League and the bigger faction of KwaZulu-Natal, possibly Free State and North West. With only this support she is far from securing victory come the December conference.
Her chief surrogates are President Zuma and Women’s League President, Bathabile Dlamini, both of whom are tainted by allegations of corruption and nepotism.
Some of her key supporters include Water Minister Nomvula Paula Mokonyane, Free State Premier and ANC Provincial Chair Ace Magashule, North West Premier Supra Mahumapelo and Youth League President Collin Maine.
Of importance to note is that these leading surrogates have been implicated in one or more scandals that have rocked the Zuma presidency as he has marshalled what is seen as state capture under the influence of the Gupta family.
To be fair Dlamini-Zuma, an experienced civil servant, who has also served as head of the African Union, is probably the cleanest person in her faction &#8211; but, not unexpectedly, she too has been <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-06-08-exclusive-laundered-cash-financed-dlamini-zumas-award/">linked to the Guptas</a>.
While Dlamini-Zuma has been labelled by many political analysts as the clear frontrunner, such a claim has never been substantiated by any empirical evidence. It would seem many are dancing to the gallery and being swayed by recycled endorsements she has been receiving.
There is an equally strong feeling that she is a compromised candidate who may as well land the liberation party its first defeat since 1994. She has emphasised ‘it’s time for a woman’ to lead for as long as anyone cares to remember, but we know this card alone will not carry her to Mahlamba Ndlopfu (the official residence for the President of the country.).
For starters, she is viewed as a front for her ex-husband and the Guptas. Some argue that she is also not the best woman in the ANC to warrant the entire populace around her let alone factoring that one of her daughters has been a direct beneficiary of an unexplained <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2014-07-24-zumas-daughter-gets-top-state-job">chief of staff position</a> in government. 
Perhaps Dlamini-Zuma could learn a thing or two from the failed campaign of Hillary Clinton that gendered politics doesn’t always sell.
CR17 – Cyril Ramaphosa 2017
Ramaphosa’s major backing comes from the powerful trade union movement, the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), the South African Communist Party (SACP) and provinces namely Limpopo, Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Gauteng and Northern Cape. Both Cosatu and SACP are part of the tripartite governing alliance. Ramaphosa has pockets of support in KwaZulu-Natal, Free State and North West.
His chief surrogates are Bheki Ntshalintshali from Cosatu, Blade Nzimande and Solly Mapaila of SACP, Limpopo Premier and ANC Provincial Chair <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/limpopo-premiers-support-for-ramaphosa-angers-mk-veterans-10985023">Stan Mathabatha</a>, Northern Cape’s ANC Chair Zamani Saul, and <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/mashatile-endorses-ramaphosa-20170617">Gauteng ANC Provincial Chair Paul Mashatile</a>. In KwaZulu-Natal, Ramaphosa enjoys the support of bigwigs, <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2017-08-25-00-kzn-strongman-punts-ramaphosa">Bheki Cele</a> and former Premier Senzo Mchunu.
Also in his camp are former Finance Minister, Pravin Gordhan who has openly endorsed <a href="http://www.biznews.com/leadership/2017/04/28/pravin-gordhan-ramaphosa-cnn/">Ramaphosa on CNN</a> and ANC national executive committee member <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/heir-to-the-throne-motshekgas-endorse-ramaphosa-20170507-2">Angie Motshekga</a>.
Ramaphosa’s candidacy has also split the Women’s League &#8211; <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1633769/vhembe-ancwl-supports-ramaphosa/">with the women of Vhembe</a> in his home province of Limpopo openly endorsing him defying the league’s executive resolution.
His major challenge is the Marikana tragedy, which saw 44 miners lose their lives while he was a non-executive director of Lonmin, which owns the mine. His rivals often hold this against him.
<a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-09-02-ramaphosa-condemns-social-media-smear-campaign-alleging-affairs/">Smear campaigns</a> are also another challenge he is facing. Many expect these to get worse. But unlike President Zuma, he is not facing rape or corruption charges but issues of infidelity. Already his base is rubbishing the claims.
Scaling candidates
The above picture is far from exhaustive.
However, it gives a glimpse into the polarised state of the race for the next leader of the ruling party.
The competition is decidedly a two-horse race between Dlamini-Zuma and Ramaphosa although some names such as that of Speaker of the National Assembly, Baleka Mbete, Human Settlements Minister Lindiwe Sisulu, Former Treasurer General Mathews Phosa and Mpumalanga Premier, David Mabuza, have been thrown into the ring.
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Stakes are high for the ANC
The party has suffered progressively under Jacob Zuma, weakening its parliamentary majority and losing key metropolitan provinces in local government elections, such as the Nelson Mandela, Tshwane and Johannesburg Metros.
There is a strong sentiment that the party needs a clean break from the Zuma era and this is where Dlamini-Zuma will face a challenge of association with her former husband. There are already people who freely refer to her as “Zuma’s wife”, with another journalist having addressed her as Mrs Zuma.
She has failed to distance herself from her former husband. To the contrary, she has increasingly been seen to be benefiting from their association. Some say she has been to Nkandla, Zuma’s controversial homestead a couple of times – and their kids tie them together. However, the claims of her visits to Nkandla could be part of a smear campaign and without basis.
She has also unduly received a presidential protection unit. This will come to haunt her in the coming months – if not before December as opposition parties, such as the Economic Freedom Fighters and Democratic Alliance feast on that.
On the other side, Ramaphosa is a capitalist and his surrogates would add ‘with a heart’. He runs an Education Foundation with an impeccable record. Other than Marikana, and the latest infidelity allegations no scandal tails him. His social media followers boast that he has single-handedly, created over 150, 000 jobs through a string of his businesses.
He appeals to the middle class base that the ANC has relied on since 1994 and of late has drifted to the centre right and opposition party the DA. If Ramaphosa wins the leadership contest for the ANC, the liberation party might recoup some losses &#8211; if he doesn’t the party should prepare to be in opposition or part of a coalition government.
Another growing probability is what has been dubbed the third way
 Scenarios
Eventually, Dlamini-Zuma will realise she will either lose the December conference or 2019 and retreat with some dignity and settle for Number 2. That could potentially save her former husband from possible prosecution if he has her in the executive.
This will also allay fears of some of her surrogates fearing for their jobs should Ramaphosa register a clean sweep. This explains, to an extent, why Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba and Police Minister Fikile Mbalula have not openly endorsed her. Futures are at stake.
This possible truce would obviously see serial incompetent ministers such as Bathabile Dlamini and Faith Muthambi exiting the cabinet.
However, if Dlamini-Zuma insists and manages to ‘win’ in December, a clear split will be inevitable. And any split will automatically lead the ANC to opposition benches in the parliament. That ANC won’t be the one President Zuma is leading or the one Mandela, Mbeki, Luthuli and OR Tambo led, but a reconfigured ANC. A new ANC.
EFF and DA prefer to have Dlamini-Zuma as the candidate to battle as this would give them their best shot at landing a seat at Mahlamba Ndlopfu earlier than planned for.
If Ramaphosa loses in December, he will contest as Save SA, Mass Democratic Movement or SACP/COSATU presidential candidate. The split will equally deny him enough to govern outside coalition but I bet he will have the most votes in 2019.
His challenge will be finding a coalition partner. EFF is ultra-left and he is ultra-right which makes the two water and oil (EFF, for its own part, has been the most vocal proponents for justice over Marikana.)  DA is viewed as a ‘racist party’ and its connection to the past would taint him and his backers unless if the DA volunteers its voters without expecting any favors. I doubt it can do that, only EFF can.
The impending split will also make it almost impossible for the two ANC splinter groups to unite as the ground for heated acrimony is being watered everyday especially through smear campaigns and the use of state apparatus to spy on other ANC leaders. The President is making it worse by openly backing his ex-wife and not his incumbent deputy.
The only possibility that could unite most of these parties would be having a morally proper leader like former Public Protector Thuli Madonsela or deputy chief Justice Dikgang Moseneke as a caretaker president with the possibility of running for the entire term.
This arrangement might produce a new cabinet with clean top bureaucrats taking key cabinet posts and former ministers under Mbeki returning to the centre. I predict the likes of Tito Mboweni and Joel Netshitenge will make their way back.
The rough, tough road ahead
Before we know who will succeed Zuma, we will experience a bitter and a gruesome fight. We will probably see more <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/09/05/hawks-magaqa-s-death-a-serious-setback-in-probe-into-kzn-political-killings">political killings</a>.
The court ruling in KwaZulu-Natal involving the legitimacy of the Provincial Executive Committee will also be a big game changer &#8211; no matter the outcome. Those in the Ramaphosa camp would have a boost if the court nullifies the 2015 polls.
That possibility is huge.
If it doesn’t, CR17 will look to Secretary General Gwede Mantashe to make a thorough audit of the party’s membership that many believe are rigged in favour of the governing party in KwaZulu-Natal.
That adds a new twist to the plot that thickens daily.
Trust Matsilele is a former journalist and political consultant. He has worked for Forbes Africa, CNBC Africa and African Democratic Institute among others. He is currently completing his PhD with the University of Johannesburg and is a contributing writer for CNBC Africa. These are his views and he can be contacted at: <a href="mailto:trust.matsilele@gmail.com">trust.matsilele@gmail.com</a>

CR17

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CR17

This is what unfolded in the 12 days since

South Africa’s Ramaphosa wins election as ANC president

South Africa’s ANC votes for new leadership

Factbox: Key players in South Africa’s ANC leadership race

ANC elections Is there life after the vote?

Markets, ratings agencies are pricing in a Ramaphosa win – Investec’s Annabel Bishop

Markets have priced in a Ramaphosa win – analysts

Rand investors increase bets South Africa’s Ramaphosa will replace Zuma

Why Goldman Sachs is buying into Ramaphosa’s New Deal

South Africa’s downgrading is no longer an “if” but a “when” – Citadel

Op-ed: Why the ANC needs Ramaphosa to survive

News Tips

Advertise With Us

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