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All eyes were on South African President Cyril Ramaphosa this afternoon, as he outlined the country’s economic reconstruction and recovery plan. This is as the government charts the road to recovery, after an economic bloodbath left by Covid-19. With devastating unemployment, Ramaphosa has committed to creating more than 800 000 jobs in the immediate term, through infrastructure investment over the next four years. Joining CNBC Africa to unpack the President’s plan is Isaah Mhlanga, Chief Economist at Alexander Forbes.

SA’s economic recovery plan: Did it hit the spot?

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South African president Cyril Ramaphosa is faced with a difficult road ahead, since his election into presidency in May last year.

Outlook for President Cyril Ramaphosa’s time in office

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South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s call for an institutional clean-up was heeded by the Auditor General this week, with a bombshell report that has seen top management of the Unemployment Insurance Fund suspended due to fraud and financial mismanagement of the COVID-19 relief funds. But, on a positive note the COVID-19 crisis could provide much needed policy and systematic change as pressure mounts on government and businesses to become more compliant and transparent; this is according to Murtaza Moulvi, Head of Financial Markets at Standard Chartered Bank joins CNBC Africa for more.

How COVID-19 crisis can be a driver for policy & systematic change in SA

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All eyes in South Africa are on the ANC, as the governing party scrambles to reign in corruption. President Cyril Ramaphosa committed to rooting out corruption from the beginning of his term. The theft of COVID-19 relief funds has put pressure for him to fulfil his promise and to hold perpetrators accountable. Joining CNBC Africa to provide insights into Ramaphosa’s attempts to clean up the ANC is Daniel Silke, Director at Political Futures Consultancy.

Why this analyst believes Ramaphosa emerged stronger from the ANC NEC meeting

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa’s former president Jacob Zuma, facing trial for graft, lashed out at his successor Cyril Ramaphosa on Friday, accusing him of betraying the ruling African National Congress (ANC) with his stance against corruption.



In an unprecedented attack, Zuma, whose decade in power was marked by multiple corruption scandals that are still being investigated, accused Ramaphosa of bringing the party into disrepute &#8211; a sign of growing divisions within the ANC ahead of its national executive committee conference this weekend.



Zuma himself faces multiple investigations for corruption, including a trial relating to a $2 billion arms deal before he took office in 2009, but he retains considerable support from a powerful faction within the ANC. He denies all charges.



Ramaphosa has ordered investigations into reports of corruption in the government’s COVID-19 response, including the diversion of funds meant for protective equipment for COVID-19 medics, as well as food handouts.



Many scandals have involved junior ANC members conspiring with family-owned businesses to defraud COVID-19 funds.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/gettyimages-1006175054-594x594-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-374814" width="692" height="1034" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/gettyimages-1006175054-594x594-1.jpg 397w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/gettyimages-1006175054-594x594-1-201x300.jpg 201w" sizes="(max-width: 692px) 100vw, 692px" /><figcaption>South African President Cyril Ramaphosa addresses a media conference at the end of the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg on July 27, 2018, as the heads of the BRICS group &#8212; Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa &#8212; met in Johannesburg for an annual summit dominated by the risk of a US-led trade war. &#8211; Five of the biggest emerging economies on July 26, stood by the multilateral system and vowed to strengthen economic cooperation in the face of US tariff threats and unilateralism. (Photo by Themba Hadebe / POOL / AFP) (Photo credit should read THEMBA HADEBE/AFP via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



This week Ramaphosa wrote a letter to ANC members saying its “leaders stand accused of corruption” and that the ANC “does stand as accused number one.”



Zuma, who has so far desisted from making explicit public attacks on his successor, said in response:



“You are the first president of the ANC to stand in public and accuse the ANC of criminality &#8230;. This is a devastating statement &#8230; I view your letter as a diversion by which you accuse the entire ANC in order to save your own skin.”



Divisions within the ANC could make it harder for Ramaphosa &#8211; whose presidency has been dogged by opposition from factions in the party since he took office 2-1/2 years ago &#8211; to push through economic reforms needed to revive South Africa’s struggling economy.



Since taking power after winning its struggle against white minority rule in 1994, the ANC has been a broad coalition of groups whose disagreements often make it impossible to push through policies.

Malcolm_Turnbull_and_Jacob_Zuma_in_Jakarta_2017_11_cropped

South Africa’s ex-leader Zuma, accused of graft, hits out at successor

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South African president Cyril Ramaphosa has sound the alarm on corruption and mismanagement of the COVID-19 procurement of contracts and funding that was meant to pave the road for recovery from the pandemic. Legal organisations have been called upon to clamp down on corrupt individuals, which so far, are mostly government employees. So how does one trust the very institutions that are meant to repair the country, yet are the same institutions that are hindering growth and recovery? The Attorney General Alliance of Africa and the National Prosecution Authority hosted a discussion this week on this matter and Kim Robinson, Country-Coordinator for AGA-Africa joins CNBC Africa for more.

AGA-Africa on how to build public trust in state institutions during COVID-19

As President Cyril Ramaphosa ponders whether to allow South Africans to smoke and drink again,the Commissioner for the South African Revenue Service revealed that the lockdown booze ban had already cost government coffers R15 billion, at a time when it can ill afford it. He also lamented the back street sales that have grown during the pandemic claiming it will take years to stamp them out. 



This was the word from SARS Commissioner Edward Kieswetter as he told CNBC Africa that the country had fallen short of its R321 billion tax target, set for the end of July, collecting a mere R316.8 billion- a shortfall of more than R4 billion.



&#8220;The real concern is that, year on year, we are already 21% down, which is R86 billion down.If you look at where that comes from, employment taxes are down by R14.5 billion, which is some 9%. That is a concern because many of these jobs may not return. CIT (corporate income tax) is down R16 billion, or 28%, and again there is a concern that some of the businesses that are trading may not also come back,&#8221;says Kieswetter. 



 



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VAT was down 11 %, by R14.5 billion; customs duty down by 16.7 billion, 26%, he said. Tax from alcohol was down by R 7 billion, 75% down year-on-year; cigarettes by R3 billion. 



&#8220;Ïf you then add the downstream taxes from those companies you will also add the loss in corporate income tax and employment taxes that gets you to a shortfall of R15 billion,&#8221; says Kieswetter. 



Kieswetter admitted that it was difficult for the government to balance the impact of the sale of alcohol on the health of the nation, with the impact on the economy. He lamented the black market that had grown during the ban. 



&#8221; It is going to take us years to root out the corruption and illegal activity that has taken root in this pandemic, &#8220;says Kieswetter.



The only bright spot on the horizon, says Kieswetter, was that the downtime gave SARS time to rebuild after years of taxes failing get back to the taxpayer. 



&#8220;&#8221;We are hopeful, if we worked hard on overall project in rebuilding SARS, that even though not all of the gap would be plugged, but we can handle the decline. We have to try our best We can&#8217;t let a good crisis go to waste and we must do what we can to rebuild SARS,&#8221;Kieswetter told Power Lunch on CNBC Africa.

beer

How no beer and cigarettes has cost South Africa R15 billion.

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa has doubled to six months the term of loans to small and medium-sized businesses to help them survive the COVID-19 recession and made other changes to make the credit easier to access, the treasury said on Sunday.



President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the 200 billion rand ($12.00 billion) loan scheme in April to help businesses, as part of stimulus measures to lessen the pandemic impact on South Africa’s already shrinking economy.



The loans are intended to meet urgent requirements, such as salaries, rents and contractual obligations.



Many of South Africa’s small and medium-sized firms were thrown into disarray when the government introduced a lockdown at the end of March to try to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19.



They lost much of their revenue but still faced fixed costs, and many have struggled to recover even as the lockdown lifted.



Sunday’s changes to the scheme include making “bank credit assessments and loan approvals more discretionary and less restrictive,” the treasury said in a statement.



They extend the draw-down period and the interest and capital repayment holiday to six from three months and replace the 300 million rand turnover cap with a maximum loan amount of 100 million rand.

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South Africa extends COVID-19 loans for struggling businesses

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In his address to the nation last night, President Cyril Ramaphosa shone a spotlight on corruption in the country, particularly concerning the Covid-19 relief fund. The President expressed his commitment to cracking down on people that hinder the government from mitigating the negative effects of the pandemic. Karam Singh, Head of Legal and Investigations at Corruption Watch joins CNBC Africa for more.

Is SA doing enough to tackle COVID-19 corruption?

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa witnessed some 17,000 extra deaths from natural causes or 59% more than would normally be expected between early May and mid-July, scientists said, suggesting many more people are dying of COVID-19 than shown in official figures



New data by the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), released overnight, showed that just in the week to July 14 &#8211; the latest figures available &#8211; there was an excess of 5,022 deaths by natural causes, about half more than usual.



Africa’s most industrialised nation is in the middle of a runaway epidemic of the coronavirus, with cases increasing by more than 10,000 day and the current total approaching 400,000.



But its recorded death toll is low, at 5,940 deaths or less than 1.5 percent of cases.



Debbie Bradshaw, chief specialist scientist at the government-funded research council, said the figures revealed “a huge discrepancy” between the confirmed COVID-19 death toll and the excess natural deaths.



Richard Lessells, an infectious disease specialist at the KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform in eastern South Africa, said the figures were not surprising because the same pattern could be seen in other countries.



It could partly reflect other knock-on effects in the health system, such as “if I have a stroke at home and my family decide they don’t want to take me to hospital because it’s too risky and I die at home.”



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">LOCKDOWN EASED BEFORE PEAK</h3>



President Cyril Ramaphosa implemented a tough lockdown at the end of March, shutting shops, ordering people to stay home and sending the army on to the streets to enforce it, back when South Africa had only 400 recorded cases.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="760" height="382" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/CR-lockdown.png" alt="Ramaphosa tests negative for coronavirus as South Africa to begin lockdown" class="wp-image-365190" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/CR-lockdown.png 760w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/CR-lockdown-300x151.png 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/CR-lockdown-696x350.png 696w" sizes="(max-width: 760px) 100vw, 760px" /><figcaption>Ramaphosa tests negative for coronavirus as South Africa to begin lockdown</figcaption></figure>



But a surge in poverty and unemployment in a country that already had too much of both spurred the government to lift restrictions well before the peak of infections.



The council’s data showed 17,090 extra deaths, 11,175 were people over the age of 60, a telltale sign of COVID-19, which is overwhelmingly more deadly for older people.



Addressing parliament by teleconference on Thursday, Health Minister Zweli Mkhize acknowledged the SAMRC figures, adding that they were “comparable to countries like India and Russia, but significantly lower than the UK or Spain.”



Ramaphosa said this month that scientists had predicted up to 50,000 coronavirus deaths in South Africa, a figure which seems possible based on Thursday’s findings by the council.

ramaphosa

South Africa 59% excess deaths imply hidden COVID-19 toll

South African Health Minister Zweli Mkhize has clarified the government’s decision around the relaxation of <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/05/27/this-african-fintech-is-helping-zimbabweans-in-sa-send-groceries-home-during-covid-19-lock-down/">lockdown</a> restrictions and the classification of <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/05/27/covid-19-how-will-employee-salaries-be-impacted-in-the-months-to-come/">COVID-19</a> “hotspots”.



In a statement, Mkhize confirmed that, “as the whole country moves to level 3, there will be constant as-sessment of each and every area and its rate of infection, in which case, further containment measures and restrictions may be considered.”



The following brief provides further explanation:



27 May 2020



Media Statement



Clarity has been sought on the presentation made by the Minister of Health to the NCOP yesterday regarding the determination of alert levels for hotspots.



An old slide was presented stating hotspots would remain at level 4. That slide is now outdated and was inadvertently included in a presentation that had been updated. The slide was part of a presentation previously done by health department prior to the NCCC resolving on the final approach to be adopted for the country, which was subsequently announced by His Excellency, President MC Ramaphosa.



This note seeks to clarify the enquiries received.



Firstly, as announced by President MC Ramaphosa on the 24th May 2020, we confirm that the whole country will move to Alert Level 3 on the 1st June 2020.



Further to that, government has taken measures to identify areas that have been defined as epidemiological hotspots. As clearly explained by the President in his speech, these are areas that have more than 5 infected people per 100 000 population, or areas where the infections are increasing at a fast pace.



As it stands, government has immediately taken steps to intervene in areas that are regarded as hotspots by deploying experts and specialists who will implement measures to curb the spread. These areas also require heightened levels of tracing of contacts of positive patients, ensuring that those who are positive remain in quarantine/ isolation and those who cannot self-quarantine, are accommodated in quarantine facilities provided for by provinces. This will limit the risk of further infection to other members of the communities, including their families (community transmission).



In some of these hotspots, cluster outbreaks have also been identified. This means, positive cases arising from people participating in the same activity within a specific area. These include factories, grocery shops, farms etc. Those areas also require a rapid response of screening, testing and the tracing of contacts. Cluster outbreaks drive the pandemic because spread occurs within the cluster then individuals take the virus home with them, thus causing community outbreaks. It is for this reason that we emphasize the importance of submitting to appropriate isolation once a person has tested positive or go into appropriate quarantine when a person has been identified as a direct contact of a positive patient. This reduces the risk of infecting others while waiting to be tested if you are a contact.



This therefore means that as the whole country moves to level 3, there will be constant assessment of each and every area and its rate of infection, in which case, further containment measures and restrictions may be considered. If the spread of the infection is not contained despite the above mentioned interventions, government will make a determination on whether to return that specific area, (i.e. metropolitan, district, sub district, ward) to alert level 4 or 5. This will be done rapidly and in an effort to contain and manage the spread, and also to ensure that our health facilities are not overwhelmed by the rapid rise of positive cases in that area.



This therefore means that as the whole country moves to level 3, there will be a constant assessment of each and every area and its rate of infection.



This raises the importance of social behaviour: members of the community can and must take it upon themselves to observe social distancing by keeping more than 1 metre distance from the next person; constantly wash and/ or sanitize hands; wearing a face mask; avoid touching ones face with unwashed hands; and clean surfaces we come into contact with. We also want to emphasise that staying at home is remains key and for those employees who can work from home, we urge employers to promote and facilitate this new culture. For those employees who must still go to work, they must embrace the new way of life which will protect them, their families and their fellow workers.



Dr Zwelini Mkhize Minister of Health



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

Clarification on COVID-19 “hotspots” as SA moves to level 3 lockdown

On Sunday evening <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/coronavirus/2020/05/24/sa-to-move-to-level-3-of-lockdown-on-1st-june-these-are-the-details/">South Africa&#8217;s President Cyril Ramaphosa announced</a> that the country would move from level 4 to level 3 of its phased easing of lockdown on June 1.



This decision was based on South Africa&#8217;s risk-adjusted approach to combating COVID-19. The approach is guided by the level of infections and rate of transmission, the capacity of health facilities, the extent of the implementation of public health interventions and the economic and social impact of continued restrictions.



The country <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/news/2020/03/23/breaking-nationwide-lockdown-announced-in-south-africa/">entered lockdown on 27th March</a> to contain the spread of COVID-19 and build capacity to fight it. Below shows how the two levels compare&#8230; 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="645" height="486" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/LEVEL-3-A.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-372171" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/LEVEL-3-A.jpg 645w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/LEVEL-3-A-300x226.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 645px) 100vw, 645px" /></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="645" height="510" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/level-3-b.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-372172" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/level-3-b.jpg 645w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/level-3-b-300x237.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 645px) 100vw, 645px" /></figure>

COVID-19: Investing for Roubini’s Greater Depression

How SA’s level 3 compares to level 4  when it kicks in on June 1

Ramaphosa tests negative for coronavirus as South Africa to begin lockdown

CR-lockdown

SA to move to level 3 of lockdown on 1st June, these are the details…

The Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, Ebrahim Patel, has relaxed restrictions on a wide range of e-Commerce goods following South Africa&#8217;s <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/coronavirus/2020/05/13/covid-19-most-of-sa-to-move-to-level3lockdown-by-end-of-may/">President Cyril Ramaphosa&#8217;s comments</a> last night that certain changes to level 4 regulations will be made to expand permitted business activities in the retail and e-commerce space. For more details read Patel&#8217;s statement below&#8230;



Effective today, and subject to all applicable laws, all goods will be available for transaction through e-Commerce platforms with the exception of liquor and tobacco, which have been expressively prohibited for sale to the public during Alert Level 4. These products would be reconsidered in future when the Regulations permit their sale.



These <a href="http://www.thedtic.gov.za/wp-content/uploads/43321_14-5.pdf">gazetted directions</a> enable the sale of products through e-Commerce platforms and delivery-systems that are currently not available at retail outlets, including household appliances, electronic goods, furniture, books, music, gym products, the full range of clothing and footwear products, household utensils and others.



The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (the dtic) has been working on a plan for e-Commerce to be safely rolled out since the Alert Level 4 regulations came into effect on 1 May. The key focus of the e-Commerce directions are on the health, safety and other protocols that need to be followed by retailers, delivery personnel and customers.



&#8220;We strongly believe in the value of e-Commerce as a critical enabler to opening the economy through contactless transactions. This can reduce the movement of consumers, and the density of shoppers in retail spaces. Further it can accelerate innovation, support local manufacturing and increase access by the informal market and poorer South Africans,” Minister Patel said today.



“We are in the middle of a global pandemic that has taken hundreds of thousands of lives across the world. Protecting the lives of workers and consumers is critical as we open up the economy. We have consulted with stakeholders to get the proper health and safety protocols in place which can allow the full e-Commerce supply chain to operate safely while mitigating the risk of it becoming a vector for transmission of the coronavirus,&#8221; said Minister Patel.



The directions outline the need for hygienic workplace conditions, social distancing, the wearing of masks, regular monitoring of workers’ health and the need for sanitisation, among other health protocols.



To limit the social and economic hardship caused by the pandemic on local industries and enable consumer choice to support local producers, the directions encourage retailers to give prominence to goods manufactured in South Africa.



The directions call on retailers to provide for as many payment options as possible for consumers, especially for low income earners, so that a greater number of South Africans can take advantage of online platforms.



The directions also recognise the opportunity for spaza shops and informal traders to leverage e-Commerce as a means of selling goods.



&#8220;e-Commerce has great potential as a safe retail platform during the pandemic. We need to work together with the sector to make digital platforms an avenue which can be used by a greater number of local manufacturers, retailers and consumers to transact. We have consulted with companies in e-Commerce who have committed to give prominence to South African-made goods on their sites. This is an important step in order to limit the social and economic hardship caused by the pandemic on local industries. We encourage all consumers to buy local and support the recovery of South African manufacturing during this global pandemic,” Minister Patel said.



“Beyond the pandemic, we are likely to see a shift from traditional retailing to e-Commerce platforms. We look forward to future engagement with the sector to address how to create more jobs in the sector and retrain workers displaced by the shift to e-Commerce and to ensure that there is space for local small businesses and youth-owned enterprises as suppliers of goods and providers of digital platforms and delivery services,” he said.

SA relaxes restrictions on all e-Commerce goods except liquor & tobacco, these are the details…

COVID-19: Most of SA to move to level 3 lockdown by end of May

A multi-billion rand loan guarantee scheme announced by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa last month is now officially in operation, with the assistance of the country’s major banks, including FNB, Investec, Standard Bank and Absa.



Ramaphosa announced the scheme as a measure to soften the blow of the <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/05/13/how-african-economies-will-reawaken-from-the-covid-19-nightmare/">coronavirus pandemic </a>and national lockdown on banks as well as their individual and business clients.



The following statement provides more information:



LOAN GUARANTEE SCHEME OPENS



The Covid-19 loan guarantee scheme announced by President Cyril Ramaphosa in April will operate from today, 12 May 2020. The initial set of participating banks (Absa, First National Bank, Investec, Mercantile Bank, Nedbank and Standard Bank) are ready to accept loan applications from eligible businesses which bank with them.



The activation of the loan guarantee scheme follows the finalisation of legal details by National Treasury, the South African Reserve Bank and the Banking Association South Africa.



The loan guarantee scheme is an initiative to provide loans, guaranteed by government, to eligible businesses with an annual turnover of less than R300 million to meet some of their operational expenses. Funds borrowed through this scheme can be used for operational expenses such as salaries, rent and lease agreements, contracts with suppliers, etc.



Government and commercial banks are sharing the risks of these loans. Initially, the National Treasury has provided a guarantee of R100 billion to this scheme, with the option to increase the guarantee to R200 billion if necessary and if the scheme is deemed successful. Eligible businesses should contact their primary or main banker.



More details on the scheme can be found in a Frequently Asked Questions guide posted at <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.za/">http://www.treasury.gov.za/</a>&nbsp; <a href="https://www.resbank.co.za/">https://www.resbank.co.za/</a> Pages/default.aspx and <a href="https://www.banking.org.za/">https://www.banking.org.za/</a>.



Further queries should be directed to the individual banks, which are administering the scheme.



Jointly issued by National Treasury, The South African Reserve Bank and The Banking Association South Africa



Date: 12 May 2020



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

Here’s how to apply for SA’s COVID-19 loan guarantee scheme

President Ramaphosa should be highly commended for his decisive leadership and rapid action at the start of the coronavirus crisis. The response from government at that time is precisely what anyone could have hoped for – following consultation with medical experts and with due consideration to scientific analysis and global best practice, a strict lockdown was implemented in order to stem the spread of the disease. This was a brave decision given that so much was unknown about this virus at the time, however concern is rapidly growing around the severity and duration of the lockdown, particularly as new data and insights into this virus emerge.



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The stark reality is that South Africa simply cannot afford an extended lockdown period. We do not have the financial muscle deployed by developed nations to mitigate the negative economic consequences of an extended lockdown, especially following more than a decade of rampant looting of state resources. There also seems to be an automatic assumption that big business will bear the brunt of the economic crisis – we are expected to keep paying salaries, to keep paying taxes (although deferred to assist with immediate cashflow challenges), to keep paying rentals, and to keep servicing loans. How is that possible when we are not allowed to generate revenue? Business has been forced to navigate a torrid operating environment over the past decade and many have experienced significant capital erosion. An extended lockdown period will be the final nail in many coffins and we’re already witnessing the agonising demise of some of South Africa’s best-known companies. If this trend continues, there will be little left to save by September.



It may seem callous to call for a return to business when it may result in further infections and deaths, however this is not a case of prioritising profits over lives. If SA hopes to rebuild any form of economy following this pandemic, we will need a strong and cooperative business sector. Government can neither manage this crisis on their own nor rebuild the economy and create jobs following it. However, the long-term sustainability and needs of big business is conspicuously absent from the current presiding narrative.



It would be expected that the medical professionals advising government would be biased toward the preservation of life and whilst their perspective is invaluable, it needs to be balanced with a view toward the long-term prosperity of our nation. The latest research and statistical analysis indicates that far more people may lose their lives as a result of the humanitarian crisis created by the lockdown than from the virus itself. The concern at this stage therefore goes far beyond business sustainability but also extends to our national ability to maintain social order and mitigate the catastrophic impacts of the lockdown. Business has a duty of care and stewardship toward the society in which we operate but we cannot exercise that duty if our voices are not heard or our sustainability concerns addressed.



The unfortunate truth is that there are many things that kill South Africans every year, not least of which is TB – a completely curable disease that kills approximately 3000 South Africans every month (compared to 161 CV-19 deaths during the past two months). A tragic consequence of the attention being focused on this novel disease, is the stigma that inevitably follows it, and there are now reports of TB and HIV patients who have stopped visiting local clinics to collect their TB and HIV medications, for fear of being stigmatised as COVID-19 cases. Whilst the coronavirus might kill you, TB will kill you if left untreated. If the intention is really to save lives, there are numerous initiatives that could do that without destroying the entire economy.



It is still completely unknown how severely South Africa may be impacted by COVID-19. Everything that’s been done to-date has been based on modelled projections of what could happen. Those models are based on data from other countries which are significantly different to South Africa. We simply don’t know if our climate, National Routine Immunisation Schedule, or any other factor may have a mitigating effect. What is clear is that the actual death rate has been substantially lower than previously predicted. The claim that this was because of the severity of the lockdown seems unlikely, as it is fairly apparent that social distancing is not being adhered to in most parts of the country with extensive queueing and crowding happening every day as an increasingly desperate populace attempts to collect grants or secure a meal.



The data being disseminated globally, and which likely informs the thinking of our national advisors, is also horribly skewed in order to support a particular narrative. Whilst total death rates are constantly updated and serve to strike fear into our hearts, it has now emerged that less than 3% of all deaths in the USA and Italy could be directly attributed to COVID-19. The other 97% of patients already had at least one severe co-morbidity which may have resulted in death anyway. Whilst 270&nbsp;000 people have died from COVID-19 globally (including the 97% who had pre-existing conditions), it may surprise you to learn that around 18 million die every year from cardiovascular diseases (albeit non-communicable) and 1.2 million from the worst infectious disease, tuberculosis (TB). It begs the question as to whether the global response, based on projections of a worst-case scenario, has been proportionate to the actual risk and observed impacts to-date.



It is expected that a vaccine, if it is even possible to create one, will take at least another 18 months. There is no country that will be able to enforce a lockdown for that long. Lockdowns will not eradicate the virus, so we already have to accept that countries will start opening their economies while this virus is still around. Given that we are not investing in new healthcare infrastructure that requires long build times, we have to accept that we are as prepared as we can be for the inevitable spike in cases. There is no point in delaying the inevitable any longer whilst the economy crumbles and our people starve.



Government urgently needs to engage business as partners in this crisis. A key issue with respect to a continued lockdown is the extent to which testing has been done. With relatively few tests completed and a slowing of the government testing rate, we do not have a sufficiently broad and deep data set to understand how and where the disease is spreading in the country. In the absence of such data, a national lockdown becomes the only blunt instrument at the disposal of government to curtail the spread of the infection. Allow business to return and shift the responsibility of testing every employee onto the private sector – it is in the interests of business to ensure we have healthy employees and the exponential growth in the data set will be invaluable for government decision-making.



With some questionable decisions being made and confidence in government waning &#8211; the obscure National Command Council and its lack of transparency around regulatory decisions has not helped in that regard – it is very quickly approaching a situation where large-scale State violence will be required in order to enforce the lockdown regulations. This is perhaps why the decision was taken to deploy more than 73&nbsp;000 additional soldiers in our streets. Given our history in this country and our hard-fought democracy, can we really accept that more people may die from hunger and State violence to enforce the lockdown, than may actually die from the virus?



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

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