<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-444650" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Greece has been struggling with forest fires that could not be controlled for 10 days on July 27, 2023 in Rhodes, Greece. Dia Images | Getty Images News | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Scientists on Tuesday confirmed 2023 as the hottest year on record and warned that the planet is now within touching distance of smashing through the critical warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius.



The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said 2023, a year in which one researcher described temperature anomalies as “absolutely gobsmackingly bananas,” was the warmest calendar year in global temperature data stretching back to 1850.



The 12-month period ended with a global average temperature of 14.98 degrees Celsius, almost 0.2 degree Celsius higher than the previous record set in 2016.



Extreme heat is fueled by the climate crisis, the chief driver of which is the burning of fossil fuels.



Scientists at C3S said 2023 was the first time on record that every day within a year surpassed 1 degree Celsius above the preindustrial reference period of 1850 to 1900, while nearly 50% of days were over 1.5 degrees Celsius.



What’s more, the EU’s climate change service said two days in November were found to have surpassed 2 degrees Celsius for the first time ever.



Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S, said in a statement Tuesday that 2023 was “an exceptional year with climate records tumbling like dominoes.”



The findings come after repeated warnings in recent years about the likelihood of the world climbing above the aspirational goal of the landmark Paris Agreement.



The 2015 accord aims to “limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels” and calls for countries to take concerted climate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming.



The importance of the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is widely recognized as an indicator of the point at which climate impacts become increasingly harmful for people and the planet.



The world has already warmed by around 1.1 degrees Celsius after over a century of burning fossil fuels as well as unequal and unsustainable energy and land use. Indeed, it is this temperature increase that is fueling a series of extreme weather events around the world.

107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C

Hottest year on record puts Earth in touching distance of critical warming threshold, scientists say

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-444613" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">PARIS, FRANCE &#8211; DECEMBER 20: French Education Minister Gabriel Attal during the weekly cabinet meeting at the presidential Elysee Palace on December 20 2023 in Paris, France. (Photo by Christian Liewig &#8211; Corbis/Getty Images) Christian Liewig &#8211; Corbis | Corbis News | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday named Gabriel Attal as the country’s new prime minister, as he seeks to set a fresh course ahead of the summer’s European Union elections.



Attal, the current education minister, will become the youngest person to occupy France’s second-highest office at 34 years old.



It follows the apparently reluctant resignation of Elisabeth Borne on Monday afternoon, who said in a letter that she had been informed it was Macron’s wish. Borne said it was “more necessary than ever to continue the reforms” being carried out by the government.



In France, the prime minister leads the government and is appointed by, but cannot be directly dismissed by, the president.



Macron and Borne struggled through a turbulent 2023, with the government narrowly avoiding being toppled amid lawmaker and public opposition to its move to raise the retirement age.



The government suffered another blow in December, when an initial draft of an immigration bill seen as a signature Macron policy was voted down. It eventually passed after it was redrafted to become more hardline.



Macron’s personal disapproval rating is currently 68%, according to a Politico aggregate of polls.



Ensemble, a liberal coalition comprising Macron’s Renaissance party, is trailing both the far-right National Rally and left-wing New Ecological and Social People’s Union.



Attal, a close ally of Macron, is the most popular government minister, polls suggest. He will be the first openly gay prime minister of France.



“I know I can count on your energy and your commitment to implement the rearmament and regeneration project that I announced,” Macron said on X, formerly Twitter, addressing Attal.



The political move comes ahead of elections for the European Parliament in June, in which Renaissance is seeking to avoid an embarrassing blow given its series of political controversies.



The choice of the relatively junior Attal, rather than one of several more senior ministers who were reportedly vying for the role, was likely an effort to avoid infighting within the party ahead of the elections, political consultant Julien Hoez told CNBC.



“There have been many rumors of friction between Macron and Borne, with Borne resistant to be seen as the sacrificial lamb fronting the government’s less popular positions,” Hoez said by phone.



“With all the drama of last year, the riots that were never properly responded to, the immigration law fiasco, the pension reform, Macron likely thought the time had come to move on and provide a palate cleanser.”



“Attal is reasonably well known, with a reputation for working hard. But overall policy is not going to change much from Macron’s existing agenda,” he added.

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Gabriel Attal becomes France’s youngest prime minister in modern history

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107120142-16633564462022-09-16t191457z_1721273427_rc2iiw9db23x_rtrmadp_0_usa-safrica-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-444579" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107120142-16633564462022-09-16t191457z_1721273427_rc2iiw9db23x_rtrmadp_0_usa-safrica-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107120142-16633564462022-09-16t191457z_1721273427_rc2iiw9db23x_rtrmadp_0_usa-safrica-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107120142-16633564462022-09-16t191457z_1721273427_rc2iiw9db23x_rtrmadp_0_usa-safrica-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107120142-16633564462022-09-16t191457z_1721273427_rc2iiw9db23x_rtrmadp_0_usa-safrica-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107120142-16633564462022-09-16t191457z_1721273427_rc2iiw9db23x_rtrmadp_0_usa-safrica.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">U.S. President Joe Biden greets South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, September 16, 2022. Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



South Africa’s genocide accusation against Israel has placed further strain on an already frayed relationship with the U.S. and could have serious diplomatic ramifications.



The International Court of Justice, the UN’s highest legal body, will this week hear a case brought by South Africa that accuses Israel of committing genocide against Palestinian people during the assault on the Gaza Strip. The suit also seeks an emergency suspension of the military campaign.



U.S. National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby last week called the lawsuit “meritless, counterproductive, and completely without any basis in fact whatsoever,” while Israel has rejected it as “blood libel.”



This is the latest divergence in a series of diplomatic disagreements between Washington and Pretoria, which the U.S. sees as being too close to Russia and China.



In May 2023, when U.S. Ambassador Reuben Brigety accused South Africa of running guns for Russia via a mystery merchant ship. A South African inquiry found no evidence of the alleged arms shipment, but ties between the two historical allies remained taut.



Prior to that, Brigety and other U.S. officials had repeatedly criticized Pretoria for its policy of non-alignment regarding the war in Ukraine, which Washington interpreted as favoring Russia.



South African President Cyril Ramaphosa fiercely refuted the suggestion, and his government has since further clarified that it does not support Russia’s invasion.



Yet Chris Vandome, senior research fellow at Chatham House’s Africa Programme, told CNBC on Monday that the conflict in the Gaza Strip has erupted at a time when the U.S.-South Africa relationship is “at a low point.”



“Over the past two years a succession of frustrations, including South Africa feeling it is being pushed on Russia-Ukraine, the U.S. Ambassador’s statements on South African domestic security and on its relationship with Russia, and U.S. policy on China in Africa, have all contributed to the worsening of this relationship,” Vandome said.



Though Africa’s most industrialized nation has long been a “thorn in the side” of the White House as far as Israel-Palestine is concerned, Vandome suggested that the latest divergences are compounding these frustrations.



“Debates in Washington regarding whether South Africa should continue to benefit from AGOA [the African Growth and Opportunity Act] have spurred diplomatic efforts from South Africa to protect its most important investment partners, but many in the county view such discussions as threats which only serves to harden ideological anti-western positions,” he explained.



Enacted in 2000, AGOA is a key tenet of U.S. economic policy in Africa that provides duty-free access to the U.S. market for over 1,800 products across 32 eligible countries in 2024.



The Office of the United States Trade Representative stipulates that, in order to meet the rigorous eligibility requirements, countries must “establish or make continual progress toward establishing a market-based economy, the rule of law, political pluralism, and the right to due process.”



“Additionally, countries must eliminate barriers to U.S. trade and investment, enact policies to reduce poverty, combat corruption, and protect human rights,” the USTR states.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-solidarity-against-apartheid-oppression">‘Solidarity against apartheid oppression’</h3>



South Africa’s close relationship with Russia is based on a multitude of factors past and present. Pretoria has repeatedly cited the USSR’s historical anti-apartheid support, and there is a pragmatic impetus to maintain friendly ties with a fellow BRICS member.



During a visit from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov last January, South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor said that BRICS countries should play a proactive role in the emergence of a “redesigned global order.”



But the ruling African National Congress’ support for Palestinian territories is different, Vandome explained, in that it is rooted in “solidarity against apartheid oppression” — a cause inextricably linked to the party’s founding ideology.



“Support for Palestine has been a mainstay of ANC international relations policy since before the dawn of democracy, and it has been one of the few countries to take such a long and consistent position,” he said.



“The entrenchment of support for Palestine within ANC party documents voted on and accepted at party conferences means that the President would be going against the will of the Party if he were to adopt a different position at national level, and this would leave him very politically exposed to detractors from opposing factions.”



South Africa’s elections this year are billed as the most significant since the dawn of democracy following the end of apartheid in 1994. The ANC faces a serious challenge from the majority-white main opposition Democratic Alliance and is projected to fall below the 50% threshold to govern for the first time in 30 years.



This opens the door to potential coalition discussions with smaller parties, and though foreign policy issues aren’t typically a deciding factor in South African elections, the Israel-Gaza divide could complicate how these coalitions are formed.



“This issue could prevent a ‘coalition of the centre ground’ between the ANC and DA, which was a stronger possibility before the parties adopted divergent positions on this,” Vandome said.



“Furthermore, it could impact party funding, with some businesses that had previously supported the ruling party now withholding support.”

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U.S. slams ‘meritless’ Israel genocide suit, reigniting tensions with South Africa

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-427563" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, U.S., September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Jan 9 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The International Monetary Fund&#8217;s executive board&nbsp;has completed the third review of Mozambique&#8217;s three-year loan program, allowing for an immediate disbursement to Maputo of about $60.7 million, the fund said.



The review brings total disbursements under the $456 million Extended Credit Facility program approved in 2022 to about $273 million, the IMF said late on Monday.



&#8220;Program performance has been satisfactory,&#8221; it said in a statement, adding that inflationary pressures had declined sharply and the economic recovery is accelerating.



The three-year arrangement is expected to support economic recovery and policies to reduce public debt and financing vulnerabilities, while creating space for public investments in human capital, climate adaptation and infrastructure.



(Reporting by Anait Miridzhanian; Editing by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo and Kim Coghill)

FILE PHOTO: The IMF logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington

IMF approves disbursement of $60.7 million to Mozambique

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="533" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/download-71.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-427693" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/download-71.jpg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/download-71-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/download-71-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/download-71-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Gold bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, August 14, 2019. REUTERS/Michael Dalder</figcaption></figure>



HARARE, Jan 8 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Zimbabwe produced 30 metric tons of gold in 2023, 15% less than the previous year, official data showed on Monday, as electricity cuts and currency volatility impacted output.



The southern African country was once among the top gold producers on the continent but has fallen far behind regional peers Ghana, Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Tanzania as an extended economic crisis kept investors away.



Zimbabwe remains largely under-explored and its operating mines struggle to raise capital due to concerns over government policy and property rights, especially after the seizure of white-owned farms at the turn of the century.



Output plunged to a mere 3 tons in 2008, at the height of Zimbabwe&#8217;s political and hyperinflation crisis. Although production has recovered in recent years, reaching an all-time high of 35 tons in 2022, the country still lags behind its regional peers, despite its significant potential.



The country&#8217;s 2023 gold haul of 30.11 tons fell short of the government&#8217;s target of 40 tons for the year, showed data from Fidelity Refineries, the state-owned agency which solely processes all the gold produced in the country.



Zimbabwean gold producers, along with all other exporters from the country, receive 75% of their earnings in U.S. dollars and the balance in a local currency that lost more than 80% of its value last year alone.



The country also experienced intensified power cuts due to the frequent breakdown of its ageing coal-fired plants, while generation at the Kariba hydropower station continues to be throttled by low water levels.



Most of Zimbabwe&#8217;s gold is produced by small-scale operators and artisanal miners, a highly fragmented structure that lacks the advantages and efficiencies of scale.



Some of the country&#8217;s top gold producers include the state-owned Kuvimba Mining House, Caledonia Mining Corporation&nbsp;CALq.L, Padenga&nbsp;PHL.VF&nbsp;and RioZim&nbsp;RTNR.ZI.



(Reporting by Nyasha Chingono; Editing by Nelson Banya and Louise Heavens)

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Zimbabwe gold output declines 15% amid electricity, forex shortages

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="678" height="452" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/images-4.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-444190" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/images-4.jpeg 678w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/images-4-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/images-4-135x90.jpeg 135w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 678px) 100vw, 678px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A screen displaying an advertisement for iPhone 11 Pro is seen outside an Apple store in Beijing, China October 31, 2019. REUTERS/Florence Lo/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING, Jan 8 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;AAPL.O&#8217;s iPhone sales in China dropped by 30% in the first week of 2024, Jefferies analysts said in a note, adding to signs of growing competitive pressures from domestic rivals such as Huawei&nbsp;HWT.UL&nbsp;for the U.S. tech giant.



The decline in&nbsp;Apple&#8217;s sales was the primary catalyst for an overall double-digit drop in China smartphone shipments for the first week, according to a note the brokerage published on Sunday. Other Android brands and Huawei achieved relatively flat growth year-over-year during this period, the note said.



This decrease in Apple&#8217;s sales took place despite aggressive discounting of multiple iPhone models through major Chinese online marketplaces, according to the research note. For example, the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max received a 16% price reduction on the e-commerce platform Pinduoduo in the first week of 2024.



The 30% drop represents an acceleration from the 3% year-over-year decline the U.S. company saw for all of 2023 in its third-largest market, Jefferies said, adding that the brokerage derived this from its own market tracking. Specifically, the 3% decline in 2023 equated to a 0.4% decrease in&nbsp;Apple&#8217;s market share.



Jefferies analysts said&nbsp;Apple&#8217;s decline is largely attributed to competitive pressures from Chinese rivals, especially Huawei, which launched its Mate 60 series of phones in August last year.



Apple&nbsp;and Huawei did not immediately respond to requests for comment.



The Mate 60 line is widely viewed as marking Huawei&#8217;s comeback to the high-end smartphone market after years of U.S. sanctions that had previously hampered its progress.



For the final quarter of 2023, Huawei&#8217;s share in the Chinese smartphone market rose by about 6%, according to the note.



According to the Jefferies analysts,&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;will likely face more competitive pressure from domestic rivals throughout 2024. Their forecast predicts&nbsp;Apple&#8217;s shipment volumes will continue declining by double digits in 2024, while Huawei is expected to continue gaining market share.



Specifically, they estimate that Huawei will ship approximately 64 million smartphones worldwide in 2024 &#8211; up substantially from the estimated less than 35 million shipped in 2023.



Following a years-long slump, the Chinese smartphone market is poised for a rebound other analysts have forecasted, with research firm IDC predicting unspecified year-on-year sales growth in the fourth quarter after ten consecutive quarters of falling shipments.



(Reporting by Yelin Mo and Brenda Goh, Editing by Louise Heavens)

images (4)

Apple iPhone sales in China fall 30% in first week of 2024 – Jefferies

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="810" height="540" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-423481" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62.jpg 810w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 810px) 100vw, 810px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A person holds a new 1000 naira note as the Central Bank of Nigeria releases the notes to the public through the banks in Abuja, Nigeria, December 15, 2022. REUTERS/Afolabi Sotunde</figcaption></figure>



ABUJA, Jan 8 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Nigeria&#8217;s central bank has paid nearly $2 billion in outstanding foreign exchange forwards in the last three months in a bid to clear a backlog of dollars, a spokesperson has said, but forex shortages continue to hobble the country&#8217;s naira currency.



Africa&#8217;s biggest economy has nearly $7 billion in forex forwards that have matured, a major concern for investors, but the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has promised to pay up to boost confidence in the foreign exchange market.



&#8220;In the past three months, the CBN has also redeemed outstanding forward liabilities amounting to almost USD 2 billion,&#8221; acting spokesperson Hakama Sadi Ali said in a statement late on Sunday.



&#8220;This underscores the Bank&#8217;s commitment to the resolution of pending obligations and a functional foreign exchange market.&#8221;



Nigeria&#8217;s foreign currency shortages have been worsened by declining oil production, which is the country&#8217;s largest export, accounting for more than 90% of dollar inflows.



Ali said the CBN had recently paid $61.64 million to foreign airlines, who sold tickets in the local naira currency but have not been able to get their money out of the country.



Foreign airlines were owed more than $700 million at the end of November.



&#8220;These payments signify the CBN&#8217;s ongoing efforts to settle all remaining valid forward transactions, with the aim of alleviating the current pressure on the country&#8217;s exchange rate,&#8221; Ali said.



President Bola Tinubu has promised to boost foreign currency inflows into Nigeria by attracting new investment, ramping up oil production and reforming the foreign exchange market.



(Reporting by Camillus Eboh; Writing by MacDonald Dzirutwe; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

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Nigeria central bank pays nearly $2 billion towards FX backlog

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="517" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-820x517.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-415106" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-820x517.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-300x189.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-143x90.jpg 143w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54-768x484.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/GNZ4EKIZHBJMHAHGTKTLUHIQ54.jpg 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A 3D-printed oil pump jack is seen in front of displayed OPEC logo in this illustration picture, April 14, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Jan 5 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;OPEC DECEMBER OIL OUTPUT RISES BY 70,000 BPD FROM NOVEMBER TO 27.88 MILLION BPD AHEAD OF 2024 CUTS, ANGOLA EXIT &#8211; REUTERS SURVEY



OPEC oil output rose in December, a Reuters survey found on Friday, as increases in Iraq, Angola and Nigeria offset ongoing cuts by Saudi Arabia and other members of the wider OPEC+ alliance to support the market.



The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 27.88 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, the survey found, up 70,000 bpd from November. Output is down more than 1 million bpd from the same month a year ago.&nbsp;PRODN-TOTAL



The boost comes ahead of further OPEC+ cuts in 2024 and Angola&#8217;s exit from OPEC, which are set to lower January output and market share. OPEC&#8217;s market share has already been falling due to output restraint and the departure of some members.



In December, the biggest increases of 60,000 bpd came from Iraq and Angola, which both boosted exports, the survey found.



Nigeria also shipped more crude abroad without, as yet, beginning oil products output at its new Dangote refinery.



The Reuters survey, which aims to track supply to the market, is based on shipping data provided by external sources, Refinitiv Eikon flows data, information from companies that track flows such as Petro-Logistics and Kpler and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.



(Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, Editing by Louise Heavens)

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OPEC December oil output rises before new cuts, Angola exit – Reuters survey

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-443136" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A now hiring sign is posted in front of a U-Haul rental center on November 03, 2023 in San Rafael, California. Justin Sullivan | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



When the December jobs report is released Friday morning, markets will be looking for a number that hits a sweet spot between not so robust as to trigger more interest rate hikes and not so slow as to raise worries about the economy.



In market jargon, that quest for the middle is sometimes referred to as a “Goldilocks” number — not too hot, not too cold — that can be difficult to find.



But in this case, the good news is that the range looks to be pretty wide with a higher probability of good news than bad.



While the Dow Jones estimate is for a nonfarm payrolls gain of 170,000, Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial, said the acceptable range is really something like 100,000-250,000.



“I just feel like we have a much better receptivity to good news being good news now that we know that that’s not going to induce another rate hike,” Hogan said. “It’s just going to push off a rate cut.”



As things stand, markets figure the Federal Reserve is done hiking rates and could start cutting as early as March, eventually lopping off 1.5 percentage points from its benchmark rate by the end of 2024. Recent news coming out of the Fed is pushing back at least a little on that anticipated trajectory, and a strong jobs number could dampen the likelihood of policy easing that quickly.



“If we were to get above [250,000], then people might look at that and say we have to cancel March as a potential rate cut and maybe take one off the table for this year,” Hogan said. “Frankly, we know we’re at a place now where the Fed is done raising rates. So if that’s the case, clearly good news could be good news. It’s just how good the news could be before you get concerned that some of the hope for rate cuts might get pushed out into the back half of the year.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-high-hopes-for-cuts"><a></a>High hopes for cuts</h2>



Markets have gotten off to a rocky start in the new year as rate-sensitive Big Tech stocks have lagged. Traders are anticipating that the Fed will ease up on monetary policy, though such an aggressive schedule of cuts could imply something more than winning the battle against inflation and instead may infer economic weakness that forces the central bank’s hand.



Hogan said investors should be taking that into consideration when thinking about the impact of lower rates.



“This is a market that’s gotten itself a little jazzed up about rate cuts and when they’re going to happen,” he said. “People need to focus on why they’re going to happen.”



“If the wheels are coming off the economic cart and the Fed has to rush in to stimulate that, that’s bad rate cuts, right?” he added. “The good rate cuts are if the path of inflation continues toward the Fed’s target. That’s a good rate cut. So if that doesn’t happen until the second half, I’m fine with that.”



As usual, markets will be looking at more than the headline payrolls number for the health of the labor market.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-digging-through-details"><a></a>Digging through details</h2>



Wages have been a concern as an inflation component. The expectation for average hourly earnings is a 12-month growth rate of 3.9%. If that proves accurate, it will be the first time wage gains come in under 4% since mid-2021.



The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 3.8%, which will still keep it below 4% for 23 straight months.



“The overall picture is one in which the labor market is gradually decelerating in a very orderly fashion,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at online jobs marketplace ZipRecruiter. “I expect December to continue the trend of just gradual cooling to around 150,000 [new jobs], and possibly a small uptick in unemployment because so many people have been pouring into the workforce.”



The labor force grew by about 3.3 million in 2023 through November, though the trend has had little impact on the unemployment rate, which was up just 0.1 percentage point from the same month in 2022.



However, Pollak noted that the hiring rate is still below where it was prior to the Covid pandemic. The quits rate, a Labor Department measure that is looked at as a sign of worker confidence in finding new employment, has tumbled to 2.2% after peaking at 3% during the so-called Great Resignation in 2021 and 2022.



The jobs picture overall has shifted since then, with the once-hot tech sector now lagging in terms of job openings and health care taking the lead, according to Nick Bunker, economic research director at the Indeed Hiring Lab.



“We’re seeing a labor market that is not as tight and as hot as what we saw the last couple years,” Bunker said. “But it’s got into a groove that seems more sustainable.”

107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd

Friday’s jobs report will be a big signal for a market looking for good news

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="728" height="485" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/GRWCSJKK3NKH7M3COMPN5L5GGU.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-420130" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/GRWCSJKK3NKH7M3COMPN5L5GGU.jpg 728w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/GRWCSJKK3NKH7M3COMPN5L5GGU-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/GRWCSJKK3NKH7M3COMPN5L5GGU-135x90.jpg 135w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 728px) 100vw, 728px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The International Monetary Fund logo is seen at IMF headquarters in Washington, U.S., October 14, 2017. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG/ACCRA/LONDON, Jan 4 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Ghana&#8217;s official creditors are scheduled to meet on Monday to discuss restructuring some $5.4 billion in loans to the country, three sources told Reuters, a key step needed to secure its next tranche of funding from the International Monetary Fund.



The bilateral lenders, including the governments of China and France who co-chair the Official Creditor Committee (OCC), hold around a quarter of Ghana&#8217;s $20 billion external debt earmarked for restructuring.



The meeting is again expected to focus on an agreement about a &#8220;cut-off date&#8221; &#8211; the date after which new loans from bilateral creditors will not be restructured, the sources with knowledge of the matter said. Defining this date has emerged as a stumbling block for Ghana in its debt rework.



Some creditors are said to prefer Dec. 31, 2022, as a cut-off date with Ghana having defaulted earlier that month, according to sources. However, others pushed for March 24, 2020, because that was when the Group of 20 introduced its debt service suspension initiative (DSSI) to help the world&#8217;s poorest countries cope with the fallout of the COVID crisis. Ghana did not participate in the DSSI.



In preparation for the Jan. 8 OCC meeting, the Paris Club of major creditor nations, which does not count China among its permanent members, will convene on Friday, two sources said.



The Paris Club this week shared a technical note with other bilateral creditors and multilateral lenders on Ghana, one of the sources said, adding that the group of rich nations is proposing December 2022 as the cut-off date, one source with direct knowledge said.



&#8220;Ghana is still about cut-off date, but creditors haven&#8217;t agreed yet,&#8221; the source said. &#8220;If the cut-off date is agreed, that means an agreement on debt restructuring is close.&#8221;



A spokesperson for the Paris Club declined to comment on meetings that have not yet taken place. Ghana&#8217;s finance ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.



The West African country, which produces gold, cocoa, and oil, needs to come to an agreement on a debt restructuring with its official creditors to secure the IMF executive board&#8217;s approval for the next $600 million payout from a $3 billion rescue loan.



This is because the Washington-based lender needs financing assurances that debt relief is being provided by bilateral creditors in accordance with the IMF programme.



Ghana, where a deep economic crisis has seen inflation and the government&#8217;s debt servicing costs spiral, asked a year ago for a bilateral debt restructuring under the Common Framework, a process set up during the COVID-19 pandemic by the G20 leading economies.



It is also in talks with overseas bondholders to restructure its more than $13 billion in international debt. Holders of the bonds include major global asset managers such as BlackRock, PIMCO, Vontobel, AllianceBernstein and Neuberger Berman.



(Reporting by Rachel Savage, Maxwell Akalaare Adombila and Jorgelina do Rosario; Writing by Karin Strohecker; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe, Hugh Lawson and Alison Williams)

FILE PHOTO: The International Monetary Fund logo is seen at IMF headquarters in Washington

Ghana official creditors to meet Monday, mull debt restructuring terms -sources

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="548" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FSG7ZJLZSVPYDIAQ4I25PVA7XY-820x548.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-442871" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FSG7ZJLZSVPYDIAQ4I25PVA7XY-820x548.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FSG7ZJLZSVPYDIAQ4I25PVA7XY-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FSG7ZJLZSVPYDIAQ4I25PVA7XY-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FSG7ZJLZSVPYDIAQ4I25PVA7XY-768x513.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FSG7ZJLZSVPYDIAQ4I25PVA7XY-1536x1026.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FSG7ZJLZSVPYDIAQ4I25PVA7XY-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Italy&#8217;s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni holds her end-of-year press conference in Rome, Italy, January 4, 2024. REUTERS/Guglielmo Mangiapane</figcaption></figure>



ROME, Jan 4 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Supporting African development and tackling the dangers posed by artificial intelligence (AI) will be two key themes for Italy during its one-year presidency of the Group of Seven, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Thursday.



Speaking at a wide-ranging news conference, Meloni added that Italy would maintain its support for Ukraine in the war against Russia and warned that a further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could have &#8220;unimaginable consequences&#8221;.



Italy took over the rotating presidency of the G7, which includes the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Britain and Italy, at the start of January.



It will host numerous ministerial meetings throughout the year, including a leaders&#8217; summit in June. However, Meloni said she wanted to hold a special session before June focused on AI.



&#8220;I am hugely concerned about the impact (of AI) on the labour market,&#8221; she told the news conference to mark the end of the year, held over from last month when she was unwell.



&#8220;Today we are faced with a revolution where (human) intellect is in danger of being replaced.&#8221;



She told reporters that supporting African development would also be a central theme of her G7, saying it was vital to boost local economies and living standards to dissuade would-be migrants from heading to Europe.



&#8220;What I think needs to be done in Africa is not charity. What needs to be done in Africa is to build cooperation and serious strategic relationships as equals not predators. What needs to be done in Africa is to defend the right not to have to emigrate &#8230; and this is done with investments and a strategy.&#8221;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-war-on-the-agenda">WAR ON THE AGENDA</h2>



Among other issues likely to dominate Italy&#8217;s presidency is the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas.



Meloni called on Israel to avoid civilian casualties in Gaza and said that a more permanent solution needed to be found for the Palestinian issue.



&#8220;I believe&#8230;it&#8217;s an error to say &#8216;First let&#8217;s destroy Hamas and then we&#8217;ll talk about it&#8217;,&#8221; Meloni said.



&#8220;One of the best ways of calling the bluff of Hamas, which has no interest in the Palestinian cause, is to work for a structural solution of the Palestinian question,&#8221; she added, saying the European Union should play a more prominent role in diplomatic initiatives.



Meloni, who took power in October 2022 as Italy&#8217;s first woman prime minister, said she believed that the West should continue to supply arms and material support to Kyiv.



&#8220;The only way to reach any kind of diplomatic solution in Ukraine, any kind of negotiation, is to maintain the balance between forces on the ground.&#8221;



(Reporting by Giselda Vagnoni and Giuseppe Fonte; Writing by Crispian Balmer and Keith Weir; Editing by)

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni holds her end-of-year press conference in Rome

Italy to put Africa development, AI at heart of its G7 presidency

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="525" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-820x525.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-442772" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-820x525.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-300x192.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-141x90.jpg 141w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-768x491.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-1536x983.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/QJKRTGY7Z5K7ZMOCVNCXH6DJ6I-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A worker sells eggs to a customer at a spaza shop in Thembisa, on the East Rand, in South Africa, August 2, 2023. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Jan 4 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South African private sector activity shrank in December as companies signalled a greater impact on business amid the gridlock problems afflicting the country&#8217;s ports, a survey showed on Thursday.



The S&amp;P Global South Africa Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in December from 50.0 in November. A reading above 50 indicates growth in activity.



Supply chains, inventories, output and demand were all hit by the port crisis in Durban, with delivery times lengthening at the sharpest rate in close to two years, the survey showed.



&#8220;The port gridlock is likely to further dent the economy at the start of 2024 as businesses face greater shortfalls in input supply,&#8221; said David Owen, senior economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence.



Rotational power cuts implemented by power utility Eskom are also expected to remain an issue after electricity outages reportedly hit output and sales in December, he added.



Equipment shortages and maintenance backlogs after years of underinvestment have meant South African state-owned logistics company Transnet has struggled to provide adequate freight rail and port services in the country.



(Reporting by Bhargav Acharya; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

A worker sells eggs to a customer at a spaza shop

South Africa business activity shrinks in Dec amid port gridlock -PMI

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-442754" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/LQEFKEUAZZKWDEXBE2KZ3LRCZM-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Commuters pass by as posters of an election candidate hang on the street ahead of the general election in Dhaka, Bangladesh, January 2, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammad Ponir Hossain/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, (Reuters) &#8211; Emerging markets are gearing up for their biggest election year in decades, with investors focused on fiscal discipline and populist shifts that could stir markets and blur the outlook for some key economies.



Countries home to more than half the world&#8217;s population and accounting for more than 60% of global economic output go to the polls in 2024.



The calendar is bookended by votes in Taiwan in January &#8211; a high-stakes geopolitical event &#8211; and in sovereign defaulter Ghana in December, as the country strives to emerge from a debt crunch.



&#8220;This is an election year like we have never seen before. It really is an extraordinary year,&#8221; said David Lubin, associate fellow at think tank Chatham House and Citi&#8217;s former head of emerging market economics.



&#8220;Recent elections in Argentina and Poland have reminded us that elections do produce surprises,&#8221; Lubin added.



The elections frenzy comes against a backdrop of sharply higher global borrowing rates &#8211; piling pressure on more fragile economies even though the prospect of interest rate cuts from the world&#8217;s big central banks is firmly on the horizon.



For investors, elections divide into three categories: Those where the outcome is rather obvious, such as Russia or Venezuela; those where it seems clear but the ballot is contested, for example India, Mexico or Indonesia; and those where there is genuine uncertainty, like in South Africa.



The 2023 polls in Argentina and Poland also served as reminders that governments due to face their electorates are more often than not prone to loosening the purse strings &#8211; a trend that can leave those who take over struggling to roll back the handouts.



Even when Argentina&#8217;s previous government ramped up spending between the first and second round of their vote, radical Javier Milei swept to power and embarked on a radical reform programme. In Poland, the surprise election win of the liberal, pro-EU Donald Tusk got the thumbs up from investors.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-open-wallets">OPEN WALLETS</h2>



Fiscal discipline is seen as key, especially following a series of external shocks ranging from COVID-19 to Russia&#8217;s war in Ukraine and a rise in global yields that has highlighted the need for countries to keep spending tightly controlled, said Yvette Babb, a portfolio manager at asset manager William Blair.



&#8220;There is very limited margin for populist &#8211; often times meaning &#8216;expensive&#8217; &#8211; policy stances across emerging markets,&#8221; said Babb. &#8220;In many of our markets, elections victories have historically been tied to fiscal stances and populist policy. For this to continue it would be very controversial.&#8221;



Morgan Stanley flagged fiscal risks from pre-election spending as a key driver this year for South Africa, Romania, Russia, El Salvador, Dominican Republic and Uruguay.



The ramifications could be felt well beyond this year. The Institute of International Finance (IIF) said the &#8220;tsunami&#8221; of 2024 elections could add to an already record glut of global debt estimated to have hit $310 trillion by the end of 2023.



&#8220;A sudden increase in government spending during this global elections cycle could further elevate interest (payments) for many countries,&#8221; warned Emre Tiftik, Director of Sustainable Research at the IIF, adding that this could create further volatility in markets.



Some fear this could spur a resurgence of so-called bond vigilantes, investors who punish profligate governments by selling their bonds, driving yields higher.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-currency-shivers">CURRENCY SHIVERS</h2>



Analysts at Citi, who also warn that the looming emerging markets election cycle might see &#8220;less policy discipline than investors would like&#8221; &#8211; have studied the short-term effects markets might have to contend with.



While some votes are bound to generate more volatility than others, currency markets are often the first to feel election nerves, especially in Latin America, according to Citi strategist Dirk Willer.



He points to a reliable pattern for Mexico&#8217;s peso that sees the currency weakening in the lead-up to the vote only to strengthen on the emergence of some kind of certainty once the election result seems reasonably established. Latin America&#8217;s second-largest economy is scheduled to hold elections on June 2 with the incumbent party&#8217;s candidate enjoying a healthy lead in opinion polls.



Evidence of the heavy election cycle shaping investment flows to equities already emerged in 2023, said Karim Chedid, head of EMEA iShares investment strategy at BlackRock.



&#8220;We are seeing an evolution of the EM trade from broad to more granular which I am keeping on my radar in 2024 because of the heavy election calendar,&#8221; said Chedid, singling out Mexico but also India.



The world&#8217;s most populous country is set to hold elections in April or May, with self-styled strong man Narendra Modi expected to win a third term as prime minister.



(Reporting by Karin Strohecker, additional reporting by Libby George and Jorgelina do Rosario, graphics by Sumanta Sen and Marc Jones, Editing by Hugh Lawson)

FILE PHOTO: Commuters pass by as posters of an election candidate hang on the street ahead of the general election in Dhaka

Emerging markets brace for wave of elections with fiscal discipline at stake

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-442452" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A worker tying copper wire rods before loading them onto a truck in Huai’an, Jiangsu Province of China. Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Copper prices are set to soar more than 75% over the next two years amid mining supply disruptions and higher demand for the metal, fueled by the push for renewable energy.&nbsp;



Rising demand driven by the green energy transition and a likely decline in the U.S. dollar in the second half of 2024 will push copper prices higher, according to a report by BMI, a Fitch Solutions research unit.



Markets are banking on the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut rates this year which will weaken the dollar and in turn make the greenback-priced copper more attractive to foreign buyers.



“The positive view for copper is more on macro factors,” Bank of America Securities’ head of Asia -Pacific basic materials, Matty Zhao, told CNBC, citing likely Fed rate cuts and a weaker U.S. dollar.



Additionally, at the recent COP28 climate change conference, more than 60 countries backed a plan to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, a move that Citibank says “would be extremely bullish for copper.”



In a December report, the investment bank forecast that the higher renewable energy targets would boost copper demand by extra 4.2 million tons by 2030.



This would potentially push copper prices to $15,000 a ton in 2025, the report added, way higher than the record peak of $10,730 per ton scaled in March last year.



“This assumes a very soft landing in the U.S. and Europe, an earlier global growth recovery, significant China easing,” Citi analysts said, while also emphasizing on continued investments in the energy transition sector.&nbsp;



A growing economy tends to boost demand for copper, which is used in electrical equipment and industrial machinery. The metal’s demand is considered a proxy for economic health.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-low-supply-high-demand"><a></a>Low supply, high demand</h2>



Copper on the London Metal Exchange was last trading at $8,559 a ton.



The base metal is a linchpin in the energy transition ecosystem, and is integral to manufacturing electric vehicles, power grids and wind turbines.



Other analysts see a bullish run for copper due to mining disruptions, with Goldman Sachs expecting a deficit of over half a million tons in 2024.



Last November, First Quantum Minerals halted production at the Cobre Panamá, one of the world’s largest copper mines, following a Supreme Court ruling and nationwide protests over environmental concerns. Anglo American, a major producer, said it would cut copper output in 2024 and 2025 as it seeks to cut costs.



“The supply cuts reinforce our view that the copper market is entering a period of much clearer tightening,” wrote Goldman’s analysts, who see copper prices hitting $10,000 per ton within the year, and much higher in 2025.



The winners of the copper rush will be mainly Chile and Peru, BMI estimates. Both countries have large reserves of green transition minerals such as lithium and copper that are poised to benefit from increased investment and higher export demand. Chile holds around 21% of global copper reserves.



“Our confidence that copper substantially re-rates into 2025 [of $15,000 per ton average] is now substantially higher,” Goldman&nbsp;said.



Lower supply also means that new copper smelters coming online will have a shortage of concentrates to work with, said S&amp;P Global’s Senior Copper Analyst Wang Ruilin.&nbsp;



Copper ores are extracted from the earth and then converted into copper concentrates. From there they are sent to smelters to be purified into refined copper, which sets the benchmark LME price.



“Copper smelters will see a supply shortage of concentrate starting in 2024, and the forecast deficits in the concentrate market is expected to deepen in 2025–27,” she told CNBC via email.

107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727

Copper could skyrocket over 75% to record highs by 2025 — brace for deficits, analysts say

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="810" height="540" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-423481" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62.jpg 810w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/download-62-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 810px) 100vw, 810px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A person holds a new 1000 naira note as the Central Bank of Nigeria releases the notes to the public through the banks in Abuja, Nigeria, December 15, 2022. REUTERS/Afolabi Sotunde</figcaption></figure>



ABUJA, Dec 29 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Nigeria&#8217;s foreign exchange reserves dipped to a six-year low of $32.87 billion at the end of December, data showed on Friday, as the central bank sold dollars to try to prop up the ailing naira currency.



A backlog of unsettled forwards, undelivered promises of dollar inflows and a two-decade peak in inflation have translated into a tumultuous year for the naira, which has lost over 50% of its value to become the third worst-performing global currency in 2023, said Kyle Chapman, FX markets analyst at London-based Ballinger &amp; Co.



This prompted the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to run down its foreign exchange reserves, which peaked at $47.63 billion in June 2018, to defend the naira. The dollar reserve of Africa&#8217;s biggest economy in December dwindled to a level last seen in September 2017, when it stood at $32.16 billion.



&#8220;The naira&#8217;s downwards momentum is likely to continue through much of 2024, and its ultimate trajectory will depend on whether the CBN&#8217;s rhetoric transforms into concrete policy moves that drive up the flow of U.S dollars into Nigeria and shore up trust in the official market,&#8221; Chapman said.



The naira last week touched a low of 1,248 naira on official market and sold for 845 naira on Friday.



It was quoted at 1,210 naira on the parallel market while on the forwards market the naira sold for 1,037.50 to dollar for one-month settlement&nbsp;NGNNDFOR=.



CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso has said he would allow market forces to determine exchange rates while setting clear, transparent and harmonised rules governing market operations.



&#8220;If the CBN&#8217;s promised measures materialise and (President Bola) Tinubu&#8217;s government enacts structural changes to increase oil production or to drive foreign investment, there is plenty of opportunity for the naira to lift from its record lows,&#8221; Chapman said.



&#8220;But a quick fix is unlikely, and further depreciation will come to counteract supply and demand imbalances.&#8221;



(Reporting by Chijioke Ohuocha; Editing by Nick Macfie)

Nigeria’s FX reserves dip to six-year low as naira falls

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="575" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-820x575.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-440852" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-820x575.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-300x210.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-128x90.jpg 128w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-768x539.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-1536x1077.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Opposition supporters prepare to demonstrate, while riot police amass around Congolese opposition presidential candidate Martin Fayulu&#8217;s headquarters to block a protest by the opposition who are calling for a re-run of last week&#8217;s national election, in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo December 27, 2023. REUTERS/Benoit Nyemba</figcaption></figure>



Dec 29 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Democratic Republic of Congo is gradually releasing preliminary results from the Dec. 20 presidential election following a chaotic vote and an unscheduled ballot extension that have led the opposition to demand a re-run.



Below are the latest figures from the election commission, known as the CENI, along with details about how the commission is counting votes and releasing its tally, and why critics are disputing the results.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-do-the-latest-results-show">WHAT DO THE LATEST RESULTS SHOW?</h2>



The latest CENI update on Thursday showed President Tshisekedi well ahead of his 18 challengers, with just over 76% of around 12.5 million votes counted so far.



Businessman Moise Katumbi and former energy executive Martin Fayulu stand in second and third place respectively with almost 17% and more than 4% of the vote.



The provisional tally so far is based on results from 46,422 out of almost 76,000 polling stations, according to the CENI.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-how-are-they-being-released">HOW ARE THEY BEING RELEASED?</h2>



The CENI set up a results centre in Kinshasa called Basolo &#8211; &#8220;Truth&#8221; in the Lingala language &#8211; from where it has issued updates on a near-daily basis since Dec. 22.



The commission refers to these results as trends and has not yet said how many of Congo&#8217;s 44 million registered voters participated in the election.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-how-is-the-ceni-counting-votes">HOW IS THE CENI COUNTING VOTES?</h2>



According to Congolese electoral law, results released by the CENI are meant to be based on tallies of the paper votes cast in each polling station that have been signed off by witnesses and observers. This is meant to improve transparency and allow results to be easily double-checked if contested.



But the CENI president has told local media provisional results released so far have been based on a combination of such tallies and figures taken straight from voting machines.



In a report on the election released on Dec. 28, the main independent CENCO-ECC election monitoring group urged the CENI only to publish results based on correctly consolidated tallies from local centres.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-why-are-critics-disputing-the-results">WHY ARE CRITICS DISPUTING THE RESULTS?</h2>



Opposition presidential candidates say election day irregularities, including the CENI&#8217;s unscheduled extension of some voting beyond Dec. 20, have compromised the credibility of the results, calling for them to be annulled.



The CENCO-ECC observer mission and another local election monitoring group, which together deployed thousands of observers, have also highlighted issues on election day and during the vote-count they say throw the integrity of the results into question.



The CENI has acknowledged there were delays on election day, but says it is still on track to deliver a free and fair vote.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-when-could-we-get-full-results">WHEN COULD WE GET FULL RESULTS?</h2>



The CENI is scheduled to release full provisional results from the presidential vote by Dec. 31.



(Writing by Anait Miridzhanian; Editing by Alex Richardson)

Congo deploys riot police ahead of banned anti-election protest

FACTBOX-The latest results in Congo’s disputed election

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="615" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-820x615.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-440448" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-820x615.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-300x225.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-120x90.jpg 120w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/DL5CS5S3DVPC7KEA5MAUSUW264-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: United Arab Emirates Minister of State for Foreign Trade Thani Al Zeyoudi gestures during an interview with Reuters in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, June 30, 2022. REUTERS/Abdel Hadi Ramahi</figcaption></figure>



DUBAI, Dec 28 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The United Arab Emirates has completed negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement with the Republic of Congo, the second such deal announced with an African state in a week.



&#8220;The breadth of the UAE&#8217;s trade network continues to broaden as we conclude negotiations toward a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with the Republic of Congo-Brazzaville &#8211; a thriving economy in West-Central Africa and valued trade and investment partner,&#8221; Thani Al Zeyoudi, UAE trade minister posted on X, formerly Twitter.



Since 2021, the UAE has initiated a raft of bilateral trade, investment and cooperation deals on its own &#8211; called Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements &#8211; to bolster efforts aimed at diversifying income sources and economic sectors.



Last week, the UAE, a major global oil exporter and OPEC member, completed talks for a trade deal with Mauritius, its first with an African country.



(Reporting by Jana Choukeir; writing by Rachna Uppal; editing by Miral Fahmy)

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featured

Hottest year on record puts Earth in touching distance of critical warming threshold, scientists say

Gabriel Attal becomes France’s youngest prime minister in modern history

U.S. slams ‘meritless’ Israel genocide suit, reigniting tensions with South Africa

IMF approves disbursement of $60.7 million to Mozambique

Zimbabwe gold output declines 15% amid electricity, forex shortages

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OPEC December oil output rises before new cuts, Angola exit – Reuters survey

Friday’s jobs report will be a big signal for a market looking for good news

Ghana official creditors to meet Monday, mull debt restructuring terms -sources

Italy to put Africa development, AI at heart of its G7 presidency

South Africa business activity shrinks in Dec amid port gridlock -PMI

Emerging markets brace for wave of elections with fiscal discipline at stake

Copper could skyrocket over 75% to record highs by 2025 — brace for deficits, analysts say

Nigeria’s FX reserves dip to six-year low as naira falls

FACTBOX-The latest results in Congo’s disputed election

UAE concludes trade talks with Republic of Congo

News Tips

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