<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="517" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-820x517.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-416545" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-820x517.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-300x189.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-143x90.jpeg 143w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-768x484.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-1536x969.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A participant stands near a logo of World Bank at the International Monetary Fund &#8211; World Bank Annual Meeting 2018 in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, October 12, 2018.
Johannes Christo | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



MARRAKECH, Morocco, Oct 13 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The World Bank on Friday said it is bolstering collaboration with nine multilateral development banks (MDBs) to accelerate its vision of a&nbsp;liveable planet&nbsp;free of poverty.



It said measures already being implemented or under consideration by the MDBs could yield $300 billion to $400 billion of additional lending capacity to help developing countries confront &#8220;a perfect storm of intertwined crises — from climate shocks and conflicts to pandemics and surging debt.&#8221;



Increased collaboration among the multilateral development banks is a key part of the World Bank&#8217;s new playbook, and one supported in a statement at the ongoing annual meetings of the Bank and International Monetary Fund by Group of 20 finance leaders.



The African Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Council of Europe Development Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Investment Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, the Islamic Development Bank, and the New Development Bank joined the World Bank in the collaboration agreement.



&#8220;Working together for a common cause, we can bring more experience, expertise, knowledge, and, especially, more funding to the massive challenges facing the world today,&#8221; World Bank President Ajay Banga said. &#8220;Together, we are greater than the sum of our parts.&#8221;



The banks agreed to boost financing capacity through portfolio guarantees and hybrid capital, while stepping up a joint approach to credit rating agencies.



They said they would boost collective efforts on climate, with better tracking and reporting of climate outcomes, while enhancing country-level collaboration for greater impact.



They would also work to catalyze private sector engagement.



The World Bank is strengthening efforts to partner with the private sector, civil society, other multilateral institutions, and charitable organizations.



(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; editing by Christina Fincher and John Stonestreet)

106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report

World Bank, multilateral development banks jointly seek to boost lending power

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107004870-16427966702022-01-21t201709z_969185203_rc2w3s99wb9o_rtrmadp_0_argentina-imf-mexico-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-420118" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107004870-16427966702022-01-21t201709z_969185203_rc2w3s99wb9o_rtrmadp_0_argentina-imf-mexico-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107004870-16427966702022-01-21t201709z_969185203_rc2w3s99wb9o_rtrmadp_0_argentina-imf-mexico-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107004870-16427966702022-01-21t201709z_969185203_rc2w3s99wb9o_rtrmadp_0_argentina-imf-mexico-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107004870-16427966702022-01-21t201709z_969185203_rc2w3s99wb9o_rtrmadp_0_argentina-imf-mexico-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107004870-16427966702022-01-21t201709z_969185203_rc2w3s99wb9o_rtrmadp_0_argentina-imf-mexico.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The new economic measures laid out by the U.K. government “will likely increase inequality”, according to a spokesperson from the International Monetary Fund.
Yuri Gripas | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



MARRAKESH, Oct 13 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Germany will inject an additional 80 million euros ($84.27 million) into the International Monetary Fund&#8217;s low-income trust for poor countries, Finance Minister Christian Lindner said on the sidelines of the IMF&#8217;s meeting in Marrakesh on Friday.



The IMF has been urging member countries to fill a $1.2 billion gap in the $3 billion subsidy account.



Japan already made a &#8220;very impressive pledge&#8221; this week, according to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.



The IMF expects further funds for the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT), which provides subsidies to enable zero-interest rate loans to the poorest countries, on Saturday.



The PRGT, created in 2021 to mitigate the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, has helped over 50 countries, including Haiti and Nepal, with loans worth around $29 billion.



($1 = 0.9493 euros)



IMF&#8217;s Georgieva lauds Japan&#8217;s contribution to low-income trust, sees more coming.



(Reporting by Andreas Shalal and Christian Kraemer; Writing by Miranda Murray; Editing by Rachel More)

107004870-16427966702022-01-21t201709z_969185203_rc2w3s99wb9o_rtrmadp_0_argentina-imf-mexico

Germany adds extra 80 mln euros to IMF pot for poor countries

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="350" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1040865674-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400879" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1040865674-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1040865674-612x612-1-300x172.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Stock market report. 3d illustration</figcaption></figure>



Oct 13 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Risk sentiment across most emerging markets soured on Friday, with stocks and currencies tumbling as evidence of China&#8217;s wobbly economic recovery depressed sentiment and concerns about U.S. interest rates resurfaced.



MSCI&#8217;s index tracking emerging markets equities&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;slid 1.0%, with China&#8217;s blue chip index&nbsp;.CSI300&nbsp;and Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng&nbsp;.HIS&nbsp;dropping 1.1% and 2.3%, respectively.



Data showed consumer prices in China faltered in September, showing persistent deflationary pressures, though a narrowing trade slump offered some hope of stabilisation in the top consumer.



&#8220;Trade data suggests the situation is improving, though soft developed market demand underscores that China may need to rely more on domestic demand to sustain its recovery,&#8221; UBS analysts wrote in a note.



&#8220;We think a bottom is near as policy support kicks in and more signs suggest a turn in the economy.&#8221;



Emerging markets currencies&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;fell 0.2% by 8:47 GMT against the dollar.



Worries that the U.S. Federal Reserve will stay restrictive on monetary policy for longer than previously expected were also an overhang following a hotter-than-expected headline inflation number on Thursday.



A rise in crude prices on Friday clouded the outlook for inflation while traders were also nervous as the conflict in Middle East raged on for another day ahead of Israel&#8217;s credit rating review by Moody&#8217;s.



Israel Bonds, the Israel government&#8217;s vehicle for diaspora bonds, said the country raised $200 million from diaspora bond sales since the conflict began, while iShares MSCI Israel exchange-traded fund (EIS) EIS.N suffered substantial outflows this week after its price hit a three-year low.



But currencies and stocks in the region remain on course for their first weekly gain in four weeks, helped by dovish comments from U.S. policymakers in the days leading up to the U.S. inflation report.



Emerging markets-focused fund manager AshmoreASHM.L said assets under management fell in the third quarter, with net outflows of $2.9 billion, amid subdued market conditions due to weaker China economic data and high interest rates.



In central and eastern Europe, Poland&#8217;s zloty&nbsp;PLN=&nbsp;inched lower against the euro. Final data confirmed September consumer prices were at 8.2% year-on-year.



Romania&#8217;s leu RON= shed 0.1% and Czech&#8217;s crown CZK= added 0.2% ahead of an S&amp;P Global&#8217;s credit rating review.



(Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri)

Stock market report. 3d illustration

Stocks, currencies slide as China data, rate concerns weigh

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-428174" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">An aerial view of a container ship leaving the dockyard in Qingdao in east China’s Shandong province. Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING — China reported a smaller-than-expected decline in exports in September from a year ago, while imports missed, according to customs data released Friday.



In U.S.-dollar terms, exports fell by 6.2% last month from a year ago. That’s less than the 7.6% drop forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll.



Imports also fell by 6.2% in U.S.-dollar terms in September compared to a year ago — slightly more than the 6% decline expected by the Reuters poll.



China’s exports have fallen on a year-on-year basis every month this year starting in May. The last positive print for imports on a year-on-year basis was in September last year.



China’s trade slumped this year amid lackluster global demand for Chinese good and muted domestic demand.



Bucking the decline in trade with major trading partners were Chinese imports from the European Union, up modestly in September from a year ago, according to CNBC calculations of the official data.



The U.S. is China’s largest trading partner on a single-country basis, while the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has recently surpassed the EU as China’s largest trading partner on a regional basis.



For the first three quarters of the year, China’s exports to the U.S. fell by 16.4%, while imports dropped by 6% during that time.



Russia was the only major country or region in the Chinese customs agency’s report that showed growth in both exports and imports for the first three quarters of the year from a year ago.



By product category, China’s global export of autos remained the fastest growing, up on a unit basis by 64.4% from a year ago for the first three quarters of 2023. That’s slower than the 69% pace for the year recorded as of August.



China’s exports of ships and boats for the year picked up pace from August on a unit basis to a 16.2% year-on-year increase in the third quarter.



The volume of China’s cosmetics imports fell by 14.2% in the first three quarters compared to a year ago. The volume of crude oil imports rose by 14.6% during that time but fell on a U.S. dollar basis.



The pace of crude oil imports on a year-to-date basis in September was little changed from August.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-slowing-economic-growth"><a></a>Slowing economic growth</h2>



China’s recovery from the pandemic slowed in the last few months, dragged down by a slump in the massive real estate sector.



The International Monetary Fund this week trimmed its 2023 China growth forecast to 5% from 5.2%, while maintaining a global growth forecast of 3% for the year. The world economy grew by 3.5% last year.



China is set to report September retail sales on Oct. 18, along with third-quarter GDP figures.



Amid rising tensions with the U.S. and Europe in the last few years, China has sought to boost its trade with regional partners in Southeast Asia, as well as countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative. The BRI is a China-led push for developing regional infrastructure such as ports and railways.



As of the end of September, China said it has trains running to 217 cities in 25 European countries.



Cargo transported along those rail lines accounted for 8% of China-EU trade in 2022, up from 1.5% in 2016, Chinese officials said this week.



China also claimed imports and exports with Belt and Road partner countries reached $19.1 trillion between 2013 and 2022 — for an average annual growth in trade of 6.4%.



The third Belt and Road forum is scheduled to be held in Beijing Tuesday and Wednesday. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend.

107316539-1697159674866-gettyimages-1720140335-fc_1113145

China’s exports and imports drop again in September

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="539" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/IB6MGVQQYJPTRDC3PJGNDCLXOQ-820x539.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428168" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/IB6MGVQQYJPTRDC3PJGNDCLXOQ-820x539.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/IB6MGVQQYJPTRDC3PJGNDCLXOQ-300x197.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/IB6MGVQQYJPTRDC3PJGNDCLXOQ-137x90.jpg 137w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/IB6MGVQQYJPTRDC3PJGNDCLXOQ-768x505.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/IB6MGVQQYJPTRDC3PJGNDCLXOQ-1536x1009.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/IB6MGVQQYJPTRDC3PJGNDCLXOQ-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A view shows Nigeria&#8217;s Central Bank headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria November 22, 2020. Picture taken November 22, 2020. REUTERS/Afolabi Sotunde/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



ABUJA, Oct 12 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Nigeria&#8217;s central bank said on Thursday it plans to intervene in the country&#8217;s foreign exchange market occasionally to boost liquidity, while ending an eight-year ban on 43 items that had been restricted from accessing forex on the official market.



The ban, which covered items such as rice, cement and poultry, was imposed as part of the unorthodox policies under former central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele in an effort to prop up the naira currency.



The lifting of the ban will cheer analysts and investors who had been warning that the restriction showed the central bank was still maintaining some form of capital controls.



The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) also restated a pledge by new Governor Olayemi Cardoso last month to quickly clear the bank&#8217;s backlog of unsettled forex obligations to local lenders, estimated at about $7 billion.



Africa&#8217;s largest economy has struggled to get to grips with chronic dollar shortages on the official market, where trading volumes have steadily declined, causing the naira to slump to a record low against the dollar, with a 37% premium over the official exchange rate in street trading on Thursday.



&#8220;As part of its responsibility to ensure price stability, the CBN will boost liquidity in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market by interventions from time to time,&#8221; central bank spokesperson Isa Abdulmumin said.



&#8220;As market liquidity improves, these CBN interventions will gradually decrease,&#8221; he said in a statement.



The naira has been weakening on the parallel market due to speculation and as excess demand is funnelled into the informal market, widening the gap with the official market, where restrictions on trading the currency were lifted in June.



The latest measures announced by the central bank are &#8220;another market-friendly step&#8221; to unify the exchange rates and ease pressure on the naira in the parallel market, where importers of the 43 items had to access dollars, said Charlie Robertson, head of macro strategy at U.K. based FIM Partners.



&#8220;There is still more to do. To reduce forex shortages in the official market, the CBN might also need to signal that commercial banks can offer a weaker naira rate for dollars, to help increase the supply of dollars,&#8221; Robertson said.



The central bank said it would continue to promote orderliness and professional conduct by all market participants to ensure market forces determine exchange rates on a &#8220;willing buyer-willing seller&#8221; principle.



The bank also reiterated that the prevailing foreign exchange rates should be referenced from its website and from other recognised trading systems to promote &#8220;price discovery, transparency, and credibility in the forex rates.&#8221;



Abdulmumin said the central bank seeks to attain a &#8220;single forex market&#8221; and &#8220;consultation is ongoing with market participants to achieve this goal.&#8221;



(Additional reporting by Rachel Savage; Writing by Elisha Bala-Gbogbo; Editing by Mark Heinrich, Jane Merriman, Leslie Adler and Diane Craft)

FILE PHOTO: FILE PHOTO: A view shows Nigeria’s Central Bank headquarters in Abuja

Nigeria central bank to intervene in forex market, lifts forex ban on 43 items

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107296969-1694088895591-gettyimages-1664577879-_dsc7331-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-428157" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107296969-1694088895591-gettyimages-1664577879-_dsc7331-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107296969-1694088895591-gettyimages-1664577879-_dsc7331-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107296969-1694088895591-gettyimages-1664577879-_dsc7331-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107296969-1694088895591-gettyimages-1664577879-_dsc7331-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107296969-1694088895591-gettyimages-1664577879-_dsc7331.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A person goes through a note pad while shopping for items at a Costco Wholesale store on September 6, 2023 in Colchester, Vermont.  Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Prices that consumers pay for a wide variety of goods and services increased at a slightly faster-than-expected pace in September, keeping inflation in the spotlight for policymakers.



The consumer price index, a closely followed inflation gauge, increased 0.4% on the month and 3.7% from a year ago, according to a Labor Department report Thursday. That compared with respective Dow Jones estimates of 0.3% and 3.6%. Headline inflation increased 0.6% in August.



Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI increased 0.3% on the month and 4.1% on a 12-month basis, both exactly in line with expectations. Policymakers place more weight on the core numbers as they tend to be better predictors of long-term trends. Core inflation also increased 0.3% in August, when it was up 4.3% from the previous 12 months.



In keeping with recent trends, shelter costs were the main factor in the inflation increase. The index for shelter, which makes up about one-third of the CPI weighting, accelerated 0.6% for the month and 7.2% from a year ago. On a monthly basis, shelter accounted for more than half the rise in the CPI, the Labor Department said.



Energy costs rose 1.5%, including a 2.1% pickup in gasoline prices and 8.5% in fuel oil, and food was up 0.2% for the third month in a row. On a 12-month basis, food costs climbed 3.7%, including a 6% increase for food away from home, while energy costs were off 0.5%.



Services prices, considered a key for the longer-run direction for inflation, also posted a 0.6% gain excluding energy services, and were up 5.7% on a 12-month basis. Vehicle prices were mixed, with new vehicles up 0.3% and used down 2.5%. Used vehicle prices, a big driver of inflation in the early days of the Covid pandemic, were down 8% from a year ago.



Among the major CPI components, the other main decliners were apparel (-0.8%) and medical care commodities (-0.3%). Medical care services increased 0.3% on the month but were down 2.6% on an annual basis.



Markets showed only a modest reaction to the report. Stocks edged higher at the open, while Treasury yields came off previous lows, with longer-duration notes little changed.



The CPI increase meant worker wages fell in real terms.



Real average hourly earnings dropped 0.2% on the month, owing to the difference between the inflation rate and the 0.2% gain in nominal earnings, the Labor Department said in a separate report. On a yearly basis, earnings were up 0.5%.



“Just because the rate of inflation is stable for now doesn’t mean its weight isn’t increasing every month on family budgets,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union. “That shelter and food costs rose particularly is especially painful.”



In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims totaled 209,000, unchanged from the previous week and just below the 210,000 estimate.



The CPI report comes with Federal Reserve officials contemplating their next policy moves.



Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting, released Wednesday, reflected divisions within the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. The meeting concluded with the committee opting not to raise interest rates, but the summary showed lingering concern about inflation and worries that upside risks remain.



Since then, however, Treasury yields have jumped, at one point hitting 16-year highs.



Multiple Fed officials have said that the increases could negate the need for further policy tightening, and markets now are pricing only a small chance that the central bank votes to hike before the end of the year. Market pricing further indicates that the Fed will shave about 0.75 percentage point off its key borrowing rate before the end of 2024.



Recent days, though, have brought mixed news on where inflation is heading.



The Labor Department said Wednesday that prices at the wholesale level increased 0.5% in September, pushing the 12-month rate to 2.2%, the highest since April and above the Fed’s goal of 2% inflation.



Correction: The Labor Department said Wednesday that prices at the wholesale level increased 0.5% in September. An earlier version misstated the day.

107296969-1694088895591-gettyimages-1664577879-_dsc7331

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in September, more than expected

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="554" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/2023-10-12T093843Z_1_LYNXMPEJ9B0EK_RTROPTP_3_SAFRICA-ECONOMY.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428146" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/2023-10-12T093843Z_1_LYNXMPEJ9B0EK_RTROPTP_3_SAFRICA-ECONOMY.jpg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/2023-10-12T093843Z_1_LYNXMPEJ9B0EK_RTROPTP_3_SAFRICA-ECONOMY-300x208.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/2023-10-12T093843Z_1_LYNXMPEJ9B0EK_RTROPTP_3_SAFRICA-ECONOMY-130x90.jpg 130w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/2023-10-12T093843Z_1_LYNXMPEJ9B0EK_RTROPTP_3_SAFRICA-ECONOMY-768x532.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Workers are seen at a construction site of a housing estate, in Eikenhof, in the south of Johannesburg, South Africa, January 18, 2023. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Oct 12 (Reuters) &#8211; South African business confidence fell marginally in September, with factors like energy supply, inflation and construction applying downward pressure in month-on-month terms, data showed on Thursday.



The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) Business Confidence Index dropped to 108.2 in September from 108.6 in August.



SACCI said in a statement that foreign business-related factors had the most positive short-term impact on business confidence in September.



&#8220;The current business climate is not conducive to stimulating overall economic activity. Remedying this situation and enhancing the economy&#8217;s long-term prospects will require appropriate investments in human capital and fixed capital stock,&#8221; it added.



(Reporting by Tannur Anders; Editing by Alexander Winning)

Workers are seen at a construction site of a housing estate

South African business confidence index dips in September

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="728" height="485" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Q26RQAICWNPFJFYJE2MKCI6H7Q-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428138" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Q26RQAICWNPFJFYJE2MKCI6H7Q-1.jpg 728w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Q26RQAICWNPFJFYJE2MKCI6H7Q-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Q26RQAICWNPFJFYJE2MKCI6H7Q-1-135x90.jpg 135w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 728px) 100vw, 728px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">South Africa&#8217;s central bank governor, Lesetja Kganyago, arrives to deliver a keynote address on monetary policy, growth and jobs at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, South Africa, November 1, 2022. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko</figcaption></figure>



MARRAKECH, Morocco, Oct 11 (Reuters) &#8211; The head of South Africa&#8217;s central bank said on Wednesday the government needed to rebuild its fiscal buffers to help bring down inflation, and that he expected domestic interest rates to stay higher for longer.



Governments globally need to join central banks in dismantling the stimulus of the COVID pandemic years, Lesetja Kganyago said.



&#8220;Fiscal authorities have got to be rebuilding their fiscal buffers so that the process of disinflation is assisted,&#8221; he told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Annual Meetings in Marrakech.



&#8220;Failure to disinflate economies would result in higher financing costs for the fiscal authorities and by extension to all of us&#8230; It also applies to South Africa.&#8221;



In September, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept its main interest rate unchanged at 8.25%, its second pause after 10 consecutive hikes, after inflation edged up to 4.8% in August from 4.7% in July.



The bank&#8217;s inflation target range is 3-6%, but it said in September it aimed to hit the middle of that band &#8220;sustainably over time&#8221;.



Kganyago said he would know more about South Africa&#8217;s fiscal trajectory after a budget statement due on Nov. 1.



HSBC economist David Faulkner said in a note to clients that he expected a deficit close to 5.2% of GDP this year, which could widen in the absence of a credible plan to rein in spending and shore up revenues.



The government has forecast a deficit of 4%.



Kganyago said domestic interest rates were expected to remain higher for longer.



He did not know if more hikes were on the horizon, but &#8220;the disinflation job is not yet done,&#8221; he said.



The bank expected inflation to be sustainably on target in 2025.



Risks to that outlook included high oil prices, global financial conditions and the strong dollar, and food prices reversing their downward trend, Kganyago said.



(Reporting by Rachel Savage, additional reporting by Kopano Gumbi in Johannesburg, editing by John Stonestreet)

South Africa’s central bank governor to delivers keynote address

South Africa central bank head: govt needs to rebuild fiscal buffers to disinflate

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Q56AMJOVHVJYVFJEAAB3MUBPCI-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428131" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Q56AMJOVHVJYVFJEAAB3MUBPCI-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Q56AMJOVHVJYVFJEAAB3MUBPCI-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Q56AMJOVHVJYVFJEAAB3MUBPCI-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Q56AMJOVHVJYVFJEAAB3MUBPCI-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Q56AMJOVHVJYVFJEAAB3MUBPCI-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Q56AMJOVHVJYVFJEAAB3MUBPCI-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Israeli soldiers argue with a demonstrator holding a Palestinian flag during a protest against Israeli settlements in Jordan Valley in the Israeli-occupied West Bank June 6, 2022. REUTERS/Raneen Sawafta</figcaption></figure>



Oct 12 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South Africa is ready to help mediate in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, drawing on its experience at conflict resolution, President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Thursday.



Ramaphosa also called for the immediate and unconditional opening of &#8220;humanitarian corridors&#8221; in the Middle East so that aid can get to people who urgently need it, in the wake of days of Israeli air strikes on Gazan targets in retribution for a weekend attack by Hamas militants.



&#8220;We remain gravely concerned at the devastating escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the atrocities committed against civilian populations. We call for the immediate cessation of violence and the exercise of restraint,&#8221; Ramaphosa said in a statement.



&#8220;South Africa stands ready to work with the international community and to share our experience in mediation and conflict resolution as we have done on the continent and around the world.&#8221;



(Reporting by Alexander Winning; editing by Jason Neely)

An Israeli-Palestinian “flags war” brews as violence flares

South Africa offers to help mediate in Israeli-Palestinian conflict

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LRM74LMDFRIUNMWOPOFH3RBD2U-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428117" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LRM74LMDFRIUNMWOPOFH3RBD2U-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LRM74LMDFRIUNMWOPOFH3RBD2U-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LRM74LMDFRIUNMWOPOFH3RBD2U-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LRM74LMDFRIUNMWOPOFH3RBD2U-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LRM74LMDFRIUNMWOPOFH3RBD2U-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LRM74LMDFRIUNMWOPOFH3RBD2U-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Wind turbines are seen at the Saint-Nazaire offshore wind farm, off the coast of the Guerande peninsula in western France, September 30, 2022. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Global economic losses could reach $5 trillion under a &#8220;plausible increase&#8221; in extreme weather events linked to climate change that cause crop failures and food and water shortages, insurance marketplace Lloyd&#8217;s of London said on Wednesday.



Lloyd&#8217;s, which carried out the research alongside the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, stressed that its &#8220;systemic risk scenario&#8221;, which models the global economic impact of extreme weather, was hypothetical. But it said the work would improve business and policymaker understanding of their exposure to critical threats such as extreme weather.



When adjusting the estimated $5 trillion in losses over a five-year period for the probability of those extreme weather events occurring, the expected global economic losses were $711 billion, Lloyd&#8217;s said.



&#8220;The global economy is becoming more complex and increasingly subject to systemic threats,&#8221; said Trevor Maynard, Executive Director of Systemic Risks at the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies.



He added that the research would &#8220;help businesses and policymakers explore the potential impacts of these scenarios&#8221;.



Lloyd&#8217;s modelled global economic losses of extreme weather events by estimating the impact of food and water shocks on global gross domestic product over a five-year period.



The weighted average loss across the three severities it modelled &#8211; major, severe and extreme &#8211; was $5 trillion over the five years, ranging from $3 trillion in the lowest severity scenario up to $17.6 trillion in the most extreme.



Lloyd&#8217;s also modelled for events concentrated in regions &#8211; it said extreme weather events centred in Greater China would lead to the biggest losses, of $4.6 trillion.



The Caribbean region would lose 19% of its GDP over five years if the extreme weather events were concentrated there, Lloyd&#8217;s estimated.



(Reporting by Tommy Reggiori Wilkes; editing by Mark Heinrich)

FILE PHOTO: The Saint-Nazaire offshore wind farm

Global economic losses from extreme weather could hit $5 trln -Lloyd’s

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-404443" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling.jpg 1254w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Macro view of a screen of trading terminal with abstract financial graph and digits. Trading and forex concept. 3D Rendering</figcaption></figure>



Oct 11 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Emerging market equities and currencies hit a two-week high on Wednesday as hopes of fresh stimulus from China and a dovish shift in tone from several Federal Reserve policymakers eclipsed geopolitical concerns in the Middle East.



MSCI&#8217;s index for emerging market equities&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;rose 1.2% by 0902 GMT, extending a 1% jump from the previous session.



Stocks in China .CSI300 and Hong Kong .HSI rose on a report that Beijing is preparing new stimulus to meet growth targets. The International Monetary Fund had on Tuesday cut its growth forecast for China amid a real estate crisis.



South Korea&#8217;s benchmark stock index .KS11climbed nearly 2%, posting its biggest gain in nine months as shares of chipmakers and battery manufacturers, including Samsung Electronics 005930.KS rallied on robust earnings reports.



The currencies index .MIEM00000CUS advanced 0.2%, with the dollar =USD rangebound after a number of top Fed officials suggested that a rise in U.S. Treasury yields could have reduced the need for further policy tightening.



Optimism around China and easing jitters around the Fed&#8217;s rate trajectory have lifted sentiment towards risk-sensitive assets and pressured U.S yields following a jolt on Monday from the conflict between Israel and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas.



Israel launched a diaspora bond campaign on Tuesday to raise money amid a war with Hamas, according to posts on social media sites linked with Israel Bonds.



&#8220;Investors are struggling to assess how that conflict may develop, because obviously the key question is whether it&#8217;s going to escalate or not,&#8221; said Piotr Matys, senior FX analyst at In Touch Capital Markets.



&#8220;We&#8217;re going to have key U.S. data and that will provide fresh clues on how long the Fed may have to maintain that tight monetary policy. And that data probably is going to be a short distraction from the main focus on geopolitics.&#8221;



Later in the day, investors will assess minutes from the Fed&#8217;s rate-setting meeting last month when it held interest rates steady, with Thursday&#8217;s data on consumer prices also on the watchlist.



The South African rand&nbsp;ZAR=&nbsp;rose 0.7% while the Turkish lira&nbsp;TRYTOM=D3&nbsp;was flat at 27.273 to the dollar.



Central and Eastern European currencies also firmed against the euro with Hungary&#8217;s forint EURHUF= up 0.3% ahead of the release of minutes from the central bank&#8217;s last rate-setting meeting.



(Reporting by Amruta Khandekar; Editing by Varun H K)

Macro view of a screen of trading terminal with abstract financial graph and digits. Trading and forex concept. 3D Rendering

China stimulus hopes, dovish Fed tone lead EM assets to two-week high

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-427563" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMF-World-Bank-to-proceed-with-annual-meetings-in-Morocco-in-October-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, U.S., September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



MARRAKECH, Morocco, Oct 10 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Senior executives at multilateral development banks will meet on Wednesday with the top credit ratings agencies, bank executives said, amid a broad push to expand their lending capacity and help countries brace for climate change and other challenges.



The closed-door meeting will address how to value callable capital &#8211; a commitment from shareholders to step in during extreme circumstances — in the banks&#8217; capital adequacy frameworks, Roberta Casali, vice president for risk at the Asian Development Bank, told a Rockefeller Foundation event on Tuesday. It will be the fourth such meeting this year, she said.



The World Bank&#8217;s main lending arms could expand their lending capacity by nearly $900 billion if the ratings agencies changed their processes and modified the allowance they make for callable capital, a study commissioned by Rockefeller found.



Lakshmi Shyam-Sunder, the World Bank&#8217;s chief risk officer, said the ratings agencies had shown some openness to considering revisions in how they treat callable capital in the banks&#8217; balance sheets.



&#8220;They are beginning to change their tune,&#8221; she said. &#8220;We&#8217;re now seeing a more open-minded willingness to consider changes in their methodology.&#8221;



The key to the multilateral development banks&#8217; strategy to boost lending is to preserve their AAA credit ratings, which enable them to borrow at low rates and pass on the savings to developing countries.



Casali said Wednesday&#8217;s meeting, on the sidelines of the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Morocco, would include officials from the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the&nbsp;African Development Bank, along with the three top credit raters &#8211; Moody&#8217;s, Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s and Fitch.



Earlier on Tuesday, World Bank President Ajay Banga told Reuters that the rules governing how pledged capital can be called in times of stress are &#8220;very loose&#8221; and need a &#8220;clear and tangible process&#8221; to reassure ratings agencies.



U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday said Treasury has asked the multilateral development banks to prioritize incorporating &#8220;a prudent share&#8221; of callable capital into their capital adequacy frameworks, as part of broader reforms aimed at expanding funding options to help developing countries amid a worsening climate crisis.



Experts say developing and emerging economies need $2.4 trillion per year to meet global climate challenges.



Currently, the ratings agencies apply widely different rules and standards in assessing the risks associated with the banks&#8217; lending and balance sheets.



(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; additional reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Leslie Adler)

FILE PHOTO: The IMF logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington

Multilateral development banks, keen to expand lending, to meet with ratings agencies

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="536" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/JOLGTO3EWBPHNPPILBX26QKB3E-820x536.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428073" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/JOLGTO3EWBPHNPPILBX26QKB3E-820x536.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/JOLGTO3EWBPHNPPILBX26QKB3E-300x196.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/JOLGTO3EWBPHNPPILBX26QKB3E-138x90.jpg 138w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/JOLGTO3EWBPHNPPILBX26QKB3E-768x502.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/JOLGTO3EWBPHNPPILBX26QKB3E-1536x1005.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/JOLGTO3EWBPHNPPILBX26QKB3E-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The members of the &#8216;Happy girls&#8217; netball team take part in a practice session at Katlehong township, south-east of Johannesburg, South Africa, June 10, 2022. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



PRETORIA, Oct 10 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South&nbsp;Africa&#8217;s population grew to 62.0 million people last year from 51.8 million in 2011, census data from the statistics agency showed on Tuesday.



The census found roughly eight in 10 people were Black&nbsp;African in 2022, while less than one in 10 people were white.



Statistics South&nbsp;Africa&nbsp;said there were more than 2.4 million migrants in South&nbsp;Africa&nbsp;last year, with the highest percentage coming from neighbouring Zimbabwe at 45.5%, followed by Mozambique and Lesotho.



This was only the fourth census since the first democratic elections after the end of apartheid in 1994, and the first in over a decade due to disruptions in data collection caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.



This is a developing story&#8230;



(Reporting by Kopano Gumbi; Additional reporting by Bhargav Acharya; Editing by Alexander Winning)

Members of the ‘Happy girls’ netball team take part in a practice in Katlehong

South African population grew to 62 mln last year: census

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="728" height="485" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/5K52FDSDWFNOJEMWHZY6GIWIVY.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-420053" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/5K52FDSDWFNOJEMWHZY6GIWIVY.jpg 728w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/5K52FDSDWFNOJEMWHZY6GIWIVY-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/5K52FDSDWFNOJEMWHZY6GIWIVY-135x90.jpg 135w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 728px) 100vw, 728px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The International Monetary Fund logo is seen at IMF headquarters in Washington, U.S., October 14, 2017. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



MARRAKECH, Morocco, Oct 10 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Sub-Saharan&nbsp;Africa&#8217;s economic growth will shrink for a second year in a row in 2023 before rebounding in 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday in a report in which it cut its forecasts for economic expansion.



Growth in the region is expected to fall to 3.3% this year from 4% last year, before rebounding to 4% in 2024, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook report.



That is slightly lower than the IMF predicted in July, when it said Sub-Saharan&nbsp;Africa&nbsp;would grow 3.5% in 2023 and 4.1% next year.



Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine, after COVID-19 had already dealt the global economy a heavy blow, sent food, fuel and fertiliser prices soaring in&nbsp;Africa&nbsp;last year. Weakening currencies, higher debt service costs and restricted access to capital markets added to debt pressures.



The 2023 growth forecast for oil producer Angola was slashed from an April projection of 3.5% to 1.3%, while Nigeria&#8217;s was trimmed from 3.2% to 2.9%. South&nbsp;Africa, whose economy is hobbled by record power cuts, will grow just 0.9% this year.



Kenya&#8217;s growth will accelerate 5% this year, the IMF said, up from 4.8% in 2022, despite its government cutting budgets amid soaring debt costs. Tanzania and Senegal are also set to see higher growth this year.



Annual inflation across the region, which has seen violent protests against the cost of living in countries including Ghana and Kenya, is expected to be 16.2% at the end of this year.



That would be the same as 12 months earlier, the IMF said, before it falls to 10.5% at the end of next year.



(Reporting by Rachel Savage and Andrea Shalal; Editing by Alison Williams and Alexander Smith)

FILE PHOTO: The International Monetary Fund logo is seen at IMF headquarters in Washington

IMF lowers Sub-Saharan Africa growth forecasts

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="546" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/MXX5ZK4ZHFIZXDB32HX222DIAQ-1-820x546.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428061" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/MXX5ZK4ZHFIZXDB32HX222DIAQ-1-820x546.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/MXX5ZK4ZHFIZXDB32HX222DIAQ-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/MXX5ZK4ZHFIZXDB32HX222DIAQ-1-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/MXX5ZK4ZHFIZXDB32HX222DIAQ-1-768x511.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/MXX5ZK4ZHFIZXDB32HX222DIAQ-1-1536x1022.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/MXX5ZK4ZHFIZXDB32HX222DIAQ-1-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Robotic arms assemble cars in the production line for Leapmotor&#8217;s electric vehicles at a factory in Jinhua, Zhejiang province, China, April 26, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS</figcaption></figure>



MARRAKECH, Morocco, Oct 10 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its growth forecasts for China and the euro area and said overall global growth remained low and uneven despite what it called the &#8220;remarkable strength&#8221; of the U.S. economy.



The IMF left its forecast for global real GDP growth in 2023 unchanged at 3.0% in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), but cut its 2024 forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% from its July forecast. World output grew 3.5% in 2022.



IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters the global economy continued to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine and last year&#8217;s energy crisis, but growth trends were increasingly divergent across the globe, and prospects for medium-term growth were &#8220;mediocre.&#8221;



Gourinchas said the forecasts generally pointed to a soft landing, but the IMF remained concerned about risks related to the real estate crisis in China, volatile commodity prices, geopolitical fragmentation, and a resurgence in inflation.



A fresh unexpected risk emerged in the form of the Israel-Palestinian conflict just as finance officials from 190 countries gathered in Marrakech for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank,&nbsp;but came after the IMF&#8217;s quarterly outlook update was locked down on Sept. 26.



Gourinchas told Reuters it was too early to say how the major escalation in the long-running conflict would affect the global economy: &#8220;Depending how the situation might unfold, there are many very different scenarios that we have not even yet started to explore, so we can&#8217;t make any assessment at this point yet.&#8221;



Stronger growth is being throttled by the lingering impact of the pandemic, Russia&#8217;s war in Ukraine and increasing fragmentation, along with rising interest rates, extreme weather events and shrinking fiscal support, the IMF said. Total global output in 2023 is slated to be 3.4%, or roughly $3.6 trillion, below pre-pandemic projections.



&#8220;The global economy is showing resilience. It&#8217;s not knocked out by the big shocks it&#8217;s experienced in the last two or three years, but it&#8217;s not doing too great either,&#8221; Gourinchas told Reuters in an interview.&nbsp;&#8220;We see a global economy that is limping along and it&#8217;s not quite sprinting yet.&#8221;



The medium-term outlook is no better. The IMF is projecting growth of 3.1% in 2028, well below the 4.9% five-year forecast it had on the eve of the global financial crisis in 2008-2009.



&#8220;You have uncertainty. You have geoeconomic fragmentation, low productivity growth, and low demographics. You put all these things together and you have a slowdown in medium-term growth,&#8221; he told Reuters.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-not-quite-there-on-inflation">NOT QUITE THERE ON INFLATION</h2>



Inflation continued to decline around the globe due to a fall in energy prices and to a lesser extent food prices. It is expected to drop to an annual average of 6.9% in 2023, from 8.7% in 2022, and to 5.8% in 2024.



Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, is coming down more gradually, and should drop to 6.3% in 2023, from 6.4% in 2022, and to 5.3% in 2024, given still-tight labor markets and stickier-than-expected services inflation, the IMF said.



&#8220;We&#8217;re not quite there,&#8221; Gourinchas said in a separate meeting with reporters, adding the IMF was warning monetary authorities not to ease interest rates too soon.



Labor markets were generally quite buoyant and unemployment rates were at historical lows in most advanced economies, but there was not much evidence of a wage-price spiral that could trigger a second round of price inflation,&nbsp;even with a major strike by U.S. autoworkers in the United States.



&#8220;We&#8217;re not seeing strong signs of an out-of-control sequence of wages chasing prices and prices chasing wages,&#8221; he said.



The IMF said uncertainty had narrowed considerably since its April forecasts were released, but there were still more downside than upside risks for 2024. The chance of growth falling below 2% &#8211; which has only occurred five times since 1970 &#8211; was now seen at 15%, compared with 25% in April.



The IMF noted that investment was uniformly lower than before the pandemic, with businesses showing less appetite for expansion and risk-taking amid rising interest rates, withdrawal of fiscal support and stricter lending conditions.



Gourinchas said the fund was advising countries to remain vigilant on monetary policy until inflation was durably coming down toward targets, while urging them to rebuild thin fiscal buffers to address future challenges or shocks.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-us-growth-beating-pre-pandemic-forecasts">US GROWTH BEATING PRE-PANDEMIC FORECASTS</h2>



The IMF raised its forecast for growth in the United States, the world&#8217;s largest economy, by 0.3 percentage point to 2.1% for 2023, and by 0.5 percentage point to 1.5% for next year, citing stronger business investment and growing consumption. That makes the U.S. the only major economy to beat pre-pandemic forecasts.



In China, by contrast, GDP was expected to expand 5.0% in 2023 and 4.2% in 2024, reflecting respective downward revisions of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage point, mainly due to the country&#8217;s real estate crisis and weak external demand.



Gourinchas said &#8220;forceful action&#8221; was needed in China to clean up the real estate sector and while authorities had taken some steps, more work was needed. &#8220;If that doesn&#8217;t happen, then there is a chance that that problem could fester and become worse,&#8221; he said.



The IMF also cut its growth estimates for the euro area to 0.7% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024, down from respective July forecasts of 0.9% and 1.5%.



The UK, which like the euro area has been hit hard by the shock of high energy prices, saw its growth forecast raised by 0.1 percentage point to 0.5% for 2023, but cut by 0.4 percentage point to 0.6% for 2024.



Japan is expected to see growth of 2.0% in 2023, a 0.6 percentage point upward revision, buoyed by pent-up demand, a surge in inbound tourism, its accommodative monetary policy and a rebound in auto exports, the IMF said. It left Japan&#8217;s 2024 growth outlook unchanged at 1.0%.



(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

MXX5ZK4ZHFIZXDB32HX222DIAQ-1

IMF says global economy ‘limping along,’ cuts growth forecast for China, euro area

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-428057" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A woman spreads cocoa beans during the sun-drying process in the backyard of her house in Asikasu, Ghana on December 19, 2020. Cristina Aldehuela | Afp | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



El Nino is here to stay — and that’s bad news for cocoa crops which are highly sensitive to weather changes.&nbsp;



Frequent extreme weather events caused by El Nino and climate change hurts cocoa production. Hotter temperatures and shifts in rainfall patterns can also damage cocoa pod development and promote the spread of pests and diseases.



According to the the latest El Nino-Southern Oscillation Outlook, El Nino is expected to last through January to March 2024, with a 71% chance it will intensify from November to January. 



An intensified and frequent El Nino effect could significantly reduce the amount of arable land for cocoa cultivation. This not only poses a threat to food security, but also endangers the livelihoods of farmers, especially those in West African countries, which are most at risk from extreme weather changes.



“El Nino conditions are often historically associated with drier conditions in West Africa where three-quarters of the world’s cocoa is produced,” Jonathan Haines, research director at Gro Intelligence told CNBC.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-top-cocoa-producers"><a></a>Top cocoa producers</h2>



Cocoa comes from the seed of the cacao tree and is an essential ingredient for chocolates.



But it’s not only used in food and confectionery. Cocoa butter — a byproduct of cocoa processing — is also widely used in the pharmaceutical industry for skincare products and cosmetics.



Africa accounts for nearly 75% of global cocoa production, while the Americas — including Brazil and Ecuador — make up 20%, according to the International Cocoa Organization. Asia-Pacific produces the remaining 5%, with Indonesia and Papua New Guinea being the largest producers in the region.



West Africa’s Cote d’Ivoire — or the Ivory Coast — is the world’s largest cocoa producer, accounting for about 44% of global production, while neighboring Ghana accounts for about 14%.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Cost of climate change</h2>



As temperatures soar, more and more suitable cacao cultivation areas will be pushed uphill by 2050, according to Climate.gov, a climate change science and information portal run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.



With the optimal altitude for cacao cultivation expected to rise, cocoa farmers may be forced to move harvests to higher ground.



“Cocoa farmers facing critical decisions may start looking to higher-altitude regions where the weather is more favorable for cocoa cultivation, or some may decide to leave cocoa cultivation altogether,” Kerry Daroci, the cocoa sector lead at the Rainforest Alliance, told CNBC.



The financial damage of climate change can be extremely costly, especially since top cocoa-producers like Ivory Coast, Ghana and Indonesia, are vulnerable to extreme weather conditions.



According to a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit, a high intensity El Nino may result in severe economic disruption across Africa. Businesses in the agricultural sector are also at risk from an increase in farm input prices that can drive up overhead costs.



The financial cost of El Nino and climate change remains unquantified for Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana. However, as profits from cocoa make up 70% to 100% of Ghanaian cocoa producers’ income, any decline in yields will have a substantial impact on their livelihoods, said Daroci from the Rainforest Alliance.



West African producers aren’t the only ones impacted.



“In Indonesia, climate change is reducing productivity by approximately 50%, leading to an estimated loss of $666 per hectare, affecting up to one million hectares,” Daroci added. 



As it stands, cocoa prices have already surged to “high premiums,”&nbsp;according to the International Cocoa Organization.



At the end of August, cocoa futures settled at $3,730 per tonne in London, and $3,633 per tonne in New York, ICCO’s latest data showed. That’s a 78% jump from $2,095 per tonne in London a year ago and a nearly 50% year-on-year surge from $2,427 per tonne in New York.



“This represents the highest nearby contract price for the 2022/23 season,” the report said.



Prices of cocoa are at their highest in 50 years, according to a Reuters report.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Adaptation and mitigation</h2>



Climate change is not a new phenomenon, but the impact of an intensified El Nino&nbsp;this year has made it more&nbsp;urgent to stem its adverse impact on cocoa production.



“We have reached a juncture in the climate crisis where harm reduction is no longer enough,” said Daroci.



Agricultural adaptation and mitigation efforts are some ways to tackle specific climate threats — but they&nbsp;can be&nbsp;costly.



Climate adaptation refers to adjusting processes and structures to prevent or minimize potential damages caused by climate change. Mitigation involves lessening the impact of climate change by cutting down on emissions of greenhouse gases.



“Research indicates that investments in these initiatives must triple by 2030 and quadruple by 2050,” Daroci said. “This would result in a total investment of up to $8.1 trillion over time, with an annual investment rate of $536 billion in the future.”



“Despite the urgent need to invest in nature-based solutions, a significant funding gap remains,” she added.



Separately, a report by the Environmental Protection Agency — an independent agency of the U.S. government responsible for environmental protection matters — underscored financing as a key challenge to investing in adaptation in Ghana.



“The understanding of climate change in main cocoa producing countries like West Africa and Indonesia, is very rudimentary,”&nbsp;Steffany Bermudez, policy advisor at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, told CNBC.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Helping cocoa farmers</h2>



Additionally, adaptation methods often do not have immediate returns, and that deters financial institutions from investing in these areas.&nbsp;



“Private sector capital can be instrumental in the adoption of actions to adapt to climate change,” Bermudez said, adding that support from the private sector can be “a bridge for engagement with key financiers to build the sector’s resilience.”



Projects and initiatives organized by non-profit organizations can also help alleviate the financial burden on cocoa farmers learning to adapt to climate change.



The Rainforest Alliance, a non-governmental organization, started the Restore project — or Resilient Ecosystems and Transforming Rural Cocoa Economies, in Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana.



The project has set aside $7 million&nbsp;to help&nbsp;15,000 farmers manage 50,000 hectares of farmland, and aims to expand tree cover in cocoa production landscapes across the two countries.&nbsp;



Even though the challenges for cocoa farmers are mounting, there could be some reprieve.&nbsp;



Cocoa cultivation may fare better than expected this year, as higher levels of&nbsp;rain&nbsp;ease the impact of elevated droughts from El Nino,&nbsp;Haines from Gro Intelligence said.



“Precipitation in Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana has actually been very strong in 2023 … In Ghana, rainfall in cocoa areas is at its highest level since at least 2001 by a strong margin,”&nbsp;Haines told CNBC.



— CNBC’s Joanna Tan contributed to this report.

107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN

Cocoa farmers face mounting challenges as El Nino rages on

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="540" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/JKK4U4FI75J2VM5E4QCERD5FFA-820x540.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-426244" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/JKK4U4FI75J2VM5E4QCERD5FFA-820x540.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/JKK4U4FI75J2VM5E4QCERD5FFA-300x198.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/JKK4U4FI75J2VM5E4QCERD5FFA-137x90.jpg 137w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/JKK4U4FI75J2VM5E4QCERD5FFA-768x506.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/JKK4U4FI75J2VM5E4QCERD5FFA-1536x1011.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/JKK4U4FI75J2VM5E4QCERD5FFA-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: World Bank President Ajay Banga looks on after his visit to Vidya Samiksha Kendra at Gandhinagar, India, July 16, 2023. REUTERS/Amit Dave/</figcaption></figure>



MARRAKECH, Morocco, Oct 9 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;World Bank President Ajay Banga will come under pressure this week to focus on climate change, but the former Mastercard CEO first needs to get shareholders in line on how to grow the bank.



Banga, just 130 days into the job, has a mandate to broaden the multilateral development lender&#8217;s mission to tackle global crises including climate change, pandemics and fragile states.



But with annual climate transition finance needs estimated at up to $3 trillion for emerging market and low-income economies by 2030, development advocates are calling on him to make tackling global warming the priority at his first World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) annual meetings.



A G20-commissioned panel of experts recommended in July that the World Bank and other multilateral development banks (MDBs) increase annual lending by $260 billion, more than three times their current pace, to help meet climate needs.



&#8220;We&#8217;d love to shareholders see come out with a strong endorsement of that target and a plan to push that forward,&#8221; said Amy Dodd, development policy director at ONE Campaign.



Banga, however, has said the major step from the meetings in Morocco will be the long-awaited shareholder endorsement of modifying the bank&#8217;s anti-poverty mission statement.



The move to add &#8220;on a livable planet&#8221; has been in process for a year, and the development community is eager for next steps to maintain momentum and scale up financing quickly.



The World Bank in April lowered its equity-to-loan ratio to boost lending by $50 billion over 10 years. But many further steps are more complicated and need countries to decide how much taxpayer funds they are willing to contribute or put at risk.



&#8220;I&#8217;m very skeptical that there&#8217;s going to be a big step forward on the size of the institution in Marrakech,&#8221; said Clemence Landers, a former U.S. Treasury official now with the Center for Global Development in Washington.



This group on Monday published a new scorecard for MDB reforms, saying that broad changes are &#8220;firmly in play&#8221; but progress in implementing them has been limited.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-complex-moves">COMPLEX MOVES</h2>



For now, the U.S. wants countries to back loan guarantees by the World Bank, with President Joe Biden pushing a request that Congress approve $2.1 billion in new funding that could unlock $25 billion in new concessional loans over a decade.



A World Bank report to be considered in Marrakech estimates that $10 billion in guarantee commitments could boost lending by $60 billion over that period.



But no other major shareholders have joined the U.S. move, which is viewed as a more palatable alternative for U.S. lawmakers to a general capital increase as this would likely lead to a bigger Chinese shareholding at the bank.



British officials have expressed support for a capital increase, but Germany has favored more issuance of hybrid capital, a debt-like instrument, that the World Bank estimates could add another $40 billion in new lending over a decade.



A bigger move would boost lending against the World Bank&#8217;s &#8220;callable capital,&#8221; a cushion of emergency funds pledged by shareholders but not paid-in, but this would require some countries to change laws.



Banga has said the move is complex and will take time to negotiate. But the payoff could be huge, with the Rockefeller Foundation estimating a lending increase of some $900 billion over a decade if ratings agencies modified their evaluations.



A U.S. Treasury official told Reuters that the department is working to develop rules for callable capital so that decisions could be made by April 2024.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-plumbing">PLUMBING</h2>



Banga has played down the lending increases and emphasized his efforts to make the 16,000-strong organization more nimble and focused on projects with measurable impacts, saying he wants &#8220;to fix the plumbing&#8221;.



Other World Bank presidents, including Jim Yong Kim, were unable to meaningfully reform the bank, which Banga has called &#8220;dysfunctional&#8221;, despite a talented and dedicated staff.



&#8220;He is shaking things up,&#8221; said a senior official at the U.S. Treasury, which nominated him for the job.



While the Indian born American citizen&#8217;s approach has caused some internal friction, according to bank staff, Banga, 63, has received high marks for pushing the envelope.



&#8220;Banga had a good start,&#8221; said Michael Krake, who represents Germany on the World Bank&#8217;s executive board.



&#8220;Let Banga be Banga. Good leaders take thoughtful risks and also make some mistakes,&#8221; Krake added.



(Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Alexander Smith)

featured

World Bank, multilateral development banks jointly seek to boost lending power

Germany adds extra 80 mln euros to IMF pot for poor countries

Stocks, currencies slide as China data, rate concerns weigh

China’s exports and imports drop again in September

Nigeria central bank to intervene in forex market, lifts forex ban on 43 items

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in September, more than expected

South African business confidence index dips in September

South Africa central bank head: govt needs to rebuild fiscal buffers to disinflate

South Africa offers to help mediate in Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Global economic losses from extreme weather could hit $5 trln -Lloyd’s

China stimulus hopes, dovish Fed tone lead EM assets to two-week high

Multilateral development banks, keen to expand lending, to meet with ratings agencies

South African population grew to 62 mln last year: census

IMF lowers Sub-Saharan Africa growth forecasts

IMF says global economy ‘limping along,’ cuts growth forecast for China, euro area

Cocoa farmers face mounting challenges as El Nino rages on

World Bank’s Banga faces pressure on resources, shareholder schisms

News Tips

Advertise With Us

featured

World Bank, multilateral development banks jointly seek to boost lending power

Germany adds extra 80 mln euros to IMF pot for poor countries

Stocks, currencies slide as China data, rate concerns weigh

China’s exports and imports drop again in September

Nigeria central bank to intervene in forex market, lifts forex ban on 43 items

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in September, more than expected

South African business confidence index dips in September

South Africa central bank head: govt needs to rebuild fiscal buffers to disinflate

South Africa offers to help mediate in Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Global economic losses from extreme weather could hit $5 trln -Lloyd’s

China stimulus hopes, dovish Fed tone lead EM assets to two-week high

Multilateral development banks, keen to expand lending, to meet with ratings agencies

South African population grew to 62 mln last year: census

IMF lowers Sub-Saharan Africa growth forecasts

IMF says global economy ‘limping along,’ cuts growth forecast for China, euro area

Cocoa farmers face mounting challenges as El Nino rages on

World Bank’s Banga faces pressure on resources, shareholder schisms

News Tips

Advertise With Us

Newsletters