
<p></p>



<p>One of the unintended consequences of the misery of the COVID-19 pandemic is that it could boost Africa’s chances of attracting foreign investment from the northern hemisphere as central bankers slash interest rates..</p>



<p>This was the word from former British prime minister Tony Blair who spoke to CNBC Africa from London in an exclusive interview.</p>



<p>Blair said African nations should use this pandemic to reform their economies and build infrastructure to ripen them for foreign investors. He said African nations should look for foreign investors in sector where the continent to add value to its resources before export.</p>



<p>The economic woes, brought on by COVID-19, dragging down the wealthy economies of the northern hemisphere, could also benefit African nations.</p>



<p>“There is vast pool of capital in the west because interest rates are very low and they are looking for an outlet. You look at Japan alone, its pension fund has a trillion dollars in it,” says Blair.</p>



<p>“You will get that investment if you build infrastructure and make it the right environment for investors. My advice to African nations is get that investment in , in the value added sectors, &nbsp;to build their capacity, so you are in a position to start exporting your own intellectual capital.”</p>


Tony Blair Gives Pro-Eu Keynote Speech

Tony Blair: How the misery of COVID-19 could mean more investment into Africa.


<p>By John Wyn-Evans,  head of investment strategy, Investec Wealth &amp; Investment UK</p>



<p>My final social engagement a couple of weeks ago was a trip to the theatre to see Samuel Beckett’s Endgame, a play in which the characters are trapped in a box-like room to contemplate a fate that (in true Beckett style) never materialises. Their confinement appears to be the result of some sort of apocalyptic event. <br><br><strong>For more coverage on COVID-19 visit:</strong> <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a><br><br>Little did I think that two weeks later I would be similarly confined to my home, with the streets outside eerily devoid of the usual tidal flows of humanity. These are extraordinary times, and trying to make sense of them in terms of financial market analysis is proving to be a challenge. I am taking a three-pronged approach to the situation.</p>



<p><strong>The medical situation</strong></p>



<p>The first thing we need to monitor is the medical situation. It has become clearer in the last week that, from a policy perspective, saving lives takes precedence over economic activity. Thus we are experiencing ever more draconian measures aimed at “social distancing”. <br><br>I explained a few weeks ago that the pattern of epidemics tends to follow an “S-curve”. One sees a relatively slow initial build-up of cases, which then accelerates rapidly before flattening out again as counter-measures take effect.<br><br>We can already see this pattern playing out if we follow the virus from its beginnings in China. Containment measures in China itself mean that the province of Wuhan has not reported any new cases in the last four days. Indeed the majority of new cases in China appear to have been brought back into the country be returning travelers. This, and similar shaped curves in places such as Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea, provides some comfort that containment is a viable strategy.&nbsp;<br><br>Unfortunately, the rest of the world is several weeks behind China in terms of the spread of the virus and also in taking measures to contain it. Thus we have, in all probability, yet to experience the steepest part of the curve here in the UK; certainly so in the world’s most important economy, the United States. The same will be true of many other countries. This means that the worst is yet to come in terms of reported new cases and deaths.<br><br>To exacerbate the situation, there remains much uncertainty about mortality rates, mainly because, owing to the lack of testing capacity, we have no idea how many people have actually had this virus. We are monitoring the daily data by country to watch for any signs of a deceleration in the infection rate. There will be some relief when that is seen in the core European countries, especially Italy. Developments in the US will also be key to restoring confidence.<br><br></p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>There is likely to be some system of “dynamic social distancing” that remains in place either until a vaccine is developed or until sufficient herd immunity has been acquired.</p></blockquote>



<p>However, any return to what we might consider normal will not be immediate. We have already seen new clusters of infection in South Korea, for example. There is likely to be some system of “dynamic social distancing” that remains in place either until a vaccine is developed or until sufficient herd immunity has been acquired. This will continue to weigh on general economic activity for some time.&nbsp;<br></p>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.investec.com/content/dam/united-kingdom/staff/john-wyn-evans-quote-desk.jpg" alt="John Wyn-Evans"/><figcaption>John Wyn-Evans,  head of investment strategy, Investec Wealth &amp; Investment UK</figcaption></figure>



<p>&#8220;It is inevitable that fiscal deficits will rise sharply, but it is generally accepted that this is a price that has to be paid.&#8221;</p>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The financial system</strong></h4>



<p>The second area of focus is the financial system, which has definitely been creaking over the last couple of weeks. As we saw during the financial crisis, the world cannot cope without a functioning banking system, and central banks have thrown all their resources into ensuring that this does not seize up again. That’s not to say there have not been stressful moments.<br><br>The overnight repurchase market has struggled to cope with the demand for dollar cash as both companies and banks hoard funds. Asset markets have seen days when it has been difficult, if not impossible, to sell anything at a remotely sensible price. <br><br>On the more extreme days we have seen supposedly “safe” assets falling in value because they were the only things that could be sold in meaningful size to raise funds. Some of this was down to forced deleveraging by funds that manage portfolios based on the level of volatility.<br><br>With the VIX Index hitting an all-time high last week, they had no choice but to reduce positions across the board. There is some evidence that the worst of that particular phase of selling pressure has now peaked, at least, but redemptions and margin calls will continue to weigh.<br><br></p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>Then there has been governments’ response to the crisis. We have seen all sorts of extraordinary measures announced with commendable speed, ranging from payment deferrals to cheap loan facilities and cash handouts.</p></blockquote>



<p>It is inevitable that fiscal deficits will rise sharply, but it is generally accepted that this is a price that has to be paid. What will be intriguing is to see the extent to which central banks and governments work together.<br><br>Since the financial crisis, measures such as Quantitative Easing and zero interest rates, which were seen as temporary remedies, have become more permanent. It is possible that direct purchases of government debt by central banks will now become the norm. Once debt is “monetised” in such a fashion, it has major implications for how money itself is valued, which might well lead to very different types of portfolio construction in future.&nbsp;<br><br>The key point to make, though, is that no measure will be deemed too extreme or too costly in the short term to keep the financial system functional and to ensure that the private sector is provided with some sort of safety net to compensate for the enforced lack of activity. I have deliberately not provided exact numbers because they are virtually meaningless and will also be subject to frequent revisions.<br><br>Suffice to say that the words “whatever it takes” will be repeated often. There will be bumps in the road, as we saw last night is the US, where the Senate was unable to agree on a package of supportive measures. I can assure you that they will once they acknowledge just how bad the situation is, much as they did in 2008.<br></p>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Economic growth and company earnings</h4>



<p>The final pieces of the jigsaw are economic growth and company earnings, and here we are subject to the greatest uncertainty. Within the investment bank and independent forecaster communities there is something of a race to the bottom in terms of expectations, with every day bringing a new low.<br><br>The speed of decline will be unprecedented. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2008 following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the US economy shrank by an annualised 8%. <br><br>Goldman Sachs suggests a figure of -24% for the second quarter this year, while one member of the Federal Reserve Bank has ventured -50%. These figures were inconceivable just a few weeks ago. And although there will inevitably be a sharp rebound in activity, the trajectory of the recovery is hard to predict. It certainly feels that hopes for a “V” shaped recovery are too optimistic.<br><br></p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>Our key principle has been to remain invested in companies that will at least be able to survive the downturn and thus benefit from the recovery.</p></blockquote>



<p>From a company perspective, it is clear that earnings could, in aggregate, by wiped out for a quarter or longer, although there will be a huge gap between the haves and the have nots, one which investors are already anticipating to judge by the relative performance of different stocks and sectors. <br><br>Our key principle has been to remain invested in companies that will at least be able to survive the downturn and thus benefit from the recovery. There will be a time to consider more risky situations, but definitely not yet.&nbsp;<br><br>We often remind investors that dividends are the least volatile component of investment returns. That will be the case again, but the overall level of dividend payments is going to be significantly curtailed this year and potentially next as well. <br><br>We have already seen dividend suspensions from companies such as Marks &amp; Spencer and Intercontinental Hotels Group, both viewed as being in decent financial shape prior to current events.<br><br>But we remain far from despair. According to data from Goldman Sachs, the UK stock market trades at the 11th percentile of its price-to-book value since 1965 (and so has been more highly valued on this metric 89% of the time over the last fifty-five years). <br><br>Unless we believe that the ability to generate a reasonable return on capital has been permanently impaired – and we don’t – then investors will able to take advantage of some long-term opportunities once we have some greater clarity on the short-term pain.<br></p>


What does the COVID-19 end game look like for investors?

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The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) today launched its Growth Board which the exchange says designed to encourage the listing of growth companies and provide them with a cost-effective platform to raise the capital needed to scale, attract investors, enhance corporate visibility and put in place a regulatory structure that fosters growth. CNBC Africa’s Christy Cole shares more details.</p>


NSE launches growth board for high-growth companies

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<p>Recent times have seen not only shareholders concerned with a company&#8217;s mission and ethical practices, the age of social media has held a lot more corporations accountable for upholding certain values and now, more and more, the eyes of investors and the public alike are on corporate governance. Cloudhop, a cloud computing firm based in East Africa believes that tech is the best way to implement strong governance structures. CEO of Cloudhop, Keval Shah joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


How ready is Africa to fully embracing cloud-computing?

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<p>At the on-going UK-Morocco Business Dialogue in London, CNBC Africa’s Chris Bishop spoke to Ismail Douiri, General Manager of Attijariwafa Bank about what Morocco is doing to improve its business environment and attract investors.</p>


UK-Morocco Business Dialogue: Attijariwafa Bank’s Ismail Douiri on why Morocco is Europe’s gateway into Africa

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<p>How will local and international investors participate in Nigeria&#8217;s capital markets next year? Usoro Essien, Head of Research at Vetiva joins CNBC Africa to discuss expectations for the markets and investment climate outlook for Nigeria.</p>


Vetiva’s capital markets outlook for Nigeria

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<p>In early morning trade brent crude declined slightly by 0.4 per cent as investors eagerly await the meeting of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) next week. The meeting may result in the extension of an output agreement which cuts output by 1.2 million barrels per day.</p>


What to expect ahead of OPEC meeting next week

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<p>Energy is one of the important themes at this year’s Africa Investment Forum in Sandton. The idea of generating more energy, and specifically renewable energy was at the top of the agenda. CNBC Africa’s Kenneth Igbomor spoke to Managing Director of Watt Renewable Corporation, Oluwole Eweje about his boardroom conversations with investors.</p>


Africa Investment Forum: Watt Renewable Corporation’s Eweje on the outlook for renewable energy investment in Africa

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<p>In the latest World Bank Ease of Doing Business report, Kenya improved five positions to 56 globally on attractiveness to investors up from 61 last year. To share on the reforms implemented this year and what to look out for in the future, Economic Analyst, Odhiambo Ramogi joins CNBC Africa.</p>


Kenya’s rank climbs five places in World Bank’s ease of doing business ranking


<p>By Bajabulile “Swazi” Tshabalala, Vice President for Finance and Chief Finance Officer for the African Development Bank Group</p>



<p>2019 will be one
of the defining moments in Africa’s investment landscape. Bigger, bolder and
more ambitious projects await delegates and investors as we prepare to kick off
the second edition of the Africa Investment Forum. </p>



<p>A multi-billion-dollar
petrochemical project in Egypt and the Kigali Innovation City Project in
Rwanda, are only two of the projects which featured during the maiden edition
of the Forum held in November last year.</p>



<p>Alongside a greater
emphasis on helping transactions reach bankability and in pushing ahead the
regional integration agenda, project sponsors and investors continue to flock
to our digital<a href="https://platform.africainvestmentforum.com/"> Platform</a>,
with <a>interest already shown in 151 projects from 34
African countries worth $112.4 billion.</a></p>



<p>Following the immense
success of the inaugural edition held in November 2018, the Africa Investment
Forum, a brainchild of the African Development Bank, is becoming a firm fixture
in the calendars of the global investment community.<a> The
2018 event saw close to 2,000 participants, representing 83 countries, out of
which some 277 were delegates from development finance institutions that are
active in Africa. </a></p>



<p>The 2018 Forum
was instrumental in showcasing up to 49 different transactions at different
stages of development and with a total value of $40 billion. These projects were presented to a
large audience of investors and financiers. Judging from the interest
generated, the Forum promises to play a major role in catalyzing investment
flows into Africa, so instrumental in moving the continent forward into the future.</p>



<p>Some of the key projects for which the
Forum is expected to play an invaluable role, include the Desert to Power
initiative – that aims to provide 10,000 MW of solar-generated electricity to 250 million people
across the Sahel. Projects like the Inga Hydro-electric
scheme in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and other major cross-border
infrastructure projects in road and rail, are all highly transformative projects
with important social and economic impacts.</p>



<p>The timing of
the coming into being of the Forum is fortuitous, coming on the heels of the Africa
Continental Free Trade Area and the Single African Air Transport Market,
ratified by the majority of African Union members. </p>



<p>New investments made
possible through the Africa Investment Forum have the potential to spur an
explosion in trade, contribute to Africa’s re-industrialization and promote
cross-border regional economic integration. </p>



<p>Indeed, while
the platform continues to ramp up and grow, the Forum offered some very
important lessons. In particular, additional resources are required to
adequately prepare projects which are crucial for Africa’s development. Well-prepared
projects minimize negative environmental and social issues, while maximizing
development and economic outcomes, thus contributing to enhanced bankability. This
notwithstanding, projects originated through the Forum will benefit from the Bank’s
wider ecosystem and the numerous instruments and partnerships with other development
finance institutions which will help transform project ideas into actual investments
that create jobs and economic opportunities on the ground. </p>



<p>While the Forum
is a practical and transactional platform for project deals and potential
financers to interact, it has also become a staging post for new financing
product innovations that compliment and contribute to de-risking and making
investment opportunities more attractive for investors. Examples of recent
innovations in this regard include the co-guarantee platform that was
established in 2018 by the African Development Bank alongside its partners the Islamic
Corporation for the Insurance of Investment and Export Credit (ICIEC), African
Trade Insurance Agency (ATI) and GuarantCo. </p>



<p>As we prepare again
to put Africa on global investors’ radars, I would like to see tied to the
Forum more activities with the potential of bringing increased dynamism and
depth to African domestic capital markets; initiatives that help mobilize African
domestic resources into projects coming to this platform for funding. </p>



<p>Beyond this, there
are opportunities for the African diaspora whose annual remittances to the
continent now top $60 billion a year, making it an immense pool of money that
can actively participate in Africa’s development story and benefit from the
myriad investment opportunities. </p>



<p>I would like to
see diaspora bond issuances and/or collective investment vehicles discussed and
presented at the Forum, as they can represent significant financing that can be
put to work for the benefit of Africa’s development.</p>



<p>I also strongly
encourage and welcome greater participation of the South African institutional
investment management industry.</p>



<p>We look forward to a successful Forum and to greater acceleration of the development of the continent.</p>


Africa Investment Forum

Op-Ed: Why global and Pan African investors need to set their sight on the 2019 #AfricaInvestmentForum

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<p>The CEO of Refinitiv, David Craig, says the importance of environmental, social and governance data is growing and that such data creates a window of clarity that could drive robust decision-making for both foreign and local investors in Africa. To tell us more on how data can shape investment for Africa, David Craig joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


Refinitiv CEO: How data can shape positive investment in Africa

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<p>The mineral sector contributed 30 per cent to Uganda’s gross domestic product (GDP) back in 1960s before it collapsed and saw its share decline to a paltry 0.3 per cent currently. In the bid to revamp the sector, the government is fast-tracking a process in which it hopes to call interested investors to revive the country’s largest copper mine, Kilembe Copper Mines. Analyst, Charles Bwogi joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


How Ugandan govt will draw investors in bid to revive its Kilembe Copper Mine

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<p>Investors are lapping up banking stocks today, with FBN holdings and Access Bank topping the value of transactions traded today. To review the trading day, Rotimi Fakayejo, Stockbroker and Capital Market Analyst joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


Investors pick banking stocks: A review of Nigerian markets

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<p>Chapel Hill Denham says valuations of Nigerian stocks are cheap, presenting bargain hunting opportunities for investors. The investment firm also expects the current bearish sentiment in Ghana’s equities market to persist over ongoing reforms in the financial services sector. Omotola Abimbola, Macro and Fixed Income Analyst at Chapel Hill Denham joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


Markets largely influenced by trade conflict: A focus on West-African markets

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<p>The Group Managing Director and CEO of Zenith Bank, Ebenezer Onyeagwu says banks need to collaborate with investors to achieve efficient use of loan facilities. He cites cyber security as a major challenge – he begins by highlighting steps taken to combat wrong use of loans by borrowers. He joins CNBC Africa’s Esther Awoniyi for more.</p>


Zenith Bank CEO on tackling wrong use of loans and cybercrime in Nigeria


<p>(Reuters) &#8211; South Africa’s rand was flat early on Monday, holding on to its brief recovery from last week as traders and investors continued to weigh heightened global growth risks against local uncertainty.</p>



<p>At 0740 GMT the rand was 0.1% weaker at 15.3050 per dollar versus a close of 15.2900 on Friday in New York, treading water as risk aversion linked to fears of slowing global growth and a crisis in Argentina lured investors to safe-haven assets.</p>



<p>The rand has fallen more than 6% since the beginning of August, pressured by the rising likelihood of a credit ratings downgrade by Moody’s linked to a massive, additional bailout for state power firm Eskom and signs of slower global growth.</p>



<p>The inversion of the U.S. Treasury bond yield curve &#8211; widely viewed as a sign of looming global recession &#8211; for the first time since 2007, also put pressure on the rand last week, but by Thursday some short-covering had seen it pullback from 11-month lows.</p>



<p>Traders said the rand is likely to remain in a narrow range ahead of Wednesday’s release of local consumer price inflation for July, with the rand’s attraction as a carry yield target the key focus.</p>



<p>Bonds were a touch weaker, with the yield on the benchmark paper due in 2026 adding 0.5 basis points to 8.39%.</p>



<p>Reporting by Mfuneko Toyana; Editing by Toby Chopra </p>


South Africa’s rand flat as investors weigh heightened local, global risks, what you need to know


<p>CAPE TOWN (Reuters) &#8211; Steinhoff will struggle to turn a profit in coming years despite strong turnover as it restructures following an accounting scandal, the South African retailer said in a presentation to investors on Tuesday.</p>



<p>Steinhoff in July reported a 356 million euro ($401 million) half-year loss from continuing operations.</p>



<p>Since flagging holes in its accounts in December 2017, estimates of losses stemming from alleged accounting fraud are now as high $7 billion.</p>



<p>Reporting by Wendell Roelf; writing by Mfuneko Toyana; editing by Jason Neely </p>


investors

Tony Blair: How the misery of COVID-19 could mean more investment into Africa.

What does the COVID-19 end game look like for investors?

NSE launches growth board for high-growth companies

How ready is Africa to fully embracing cloud-computing?

UK-Morocco Business Dialogue: Attijariwafa Bank’s Ismail Douiri on why Morocco is Europe’s gateway into Africa

Vetiva’s capital markets outlook for Nigeria

What to expect ahead of OPEC meeting next week

Africa Investment Forum: Watt Renewable Corporation’s Eweje on the outlook for renewable energy investment in Africa

Kenya’s rank climbs five places in World Bank’s ease of doing business ranking

Op-Ed: Why global and Pan African investors need to set their sight on the 2019 #AfricaInvestmentForum

Refinitiv CEO: How data can shape positive investment in Africa

How Ugandan govt will draw investors in bid to revive its Kilembe Copper Mine

Investors pick banking stocks: A review of Nigerian markets

Markets largely influenced by trade conflict: A focus on West-African markets

Zenith Bank CEO on tackling wrong use of loans and cybercrime in Nigeria

South Africa’s rand flat as investors weigh heightened local, global risks, what you need to know

Steinhoff says it will struggle to turn a profit in coming years

News Tips

Advertise With Us

investors

Tony Blair: How the misery of COVID-19 could mean more investment into Africa.

What does the COVID-19 end game look like for investors?

NSE launches growth board for high-growth companies

How ready is Africa to fully embracing cloud-computing?

UK-Morocco Business Dialogue: Attijariwafa Bank’s Ismail Douiri on why Morocco is Europe’s gateway into Africa

Vetiva’s capital markets outlook for Nigeria

What to expect ahead of OPEC meeting next week

Africa Investment Forum: Watt Renewable Corporation’s Eweje on the outlook for renewable energy investment in Africa

Kenya’s rank climbs five places in World Bank’s ease of doing business ranking

Op-Ed: Why global and Pan African investors need to set their sight on the 2019 #AfricaInvestmentForum

Refinitiv CEO: How data can shape positive investment in Africa

How Ugandan govt will draw investors in bid to revive its Kilembe Copper Mine

Investors pick banking stocks: A review of Nigerian markets

Markets largely influenced by trade conflict: A focus on West-African markets

Zenith Bank CEO on tackling wrong use of loans and cybercrime in Nigeria

South Africa’s rand flat as investors weigh heightened local, global risks, what you need to know

Steinhoff says it will struggle to turn a profit in coming years

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Advertise With Us

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