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Director-General, Nigeria’s Debt Management Office, Patience Oniha, in an exclusive chat with CNBC Africa’s Christycole Popoola, says Moody’s ‘excellent rating of the country’s sovereign green bond is a positive for local and foreign investors.

Nigeria to issue first sovereign green bond

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Moody&#8217;s Investors Service has released their outlook for African Banks which notes a negative outlook for the African banking system in 2018 reflecting high macroeconomic risks that expose banks to asset quality pressures.

Moody’s 2018 outlook for African banks negative

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According to a recent report by Moody’s, until there is a durable increase in non-oil revenue, the government&#8217;s balance sheet will remain exposed to further shocks and a deficit will remain elevated.

Nigeria’s credit profile vulnerable to shocks

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Moody’s, Aurelien Mali says that only a long-lasting increase in non- oil revenue will improve Nigeria’s resilience to oil price volatility and increase the realisation rates of capital spending on large infrastructure projects.

Do credit ratings matter anymore?

South African President Jacob Zuma called for concrete measures to boost growth after S&amp;P Global Ratings downgraded the local currency debt to sub-investment grade, while foreign currency debt was pushed deeper into “junk” territory.
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The rand recovered on Monday from steep falls suffered late on Friday after the downgrade, taking some relief from Moody’s decision to only place South Africa on review for downgrade.
A cut to “junk” on the local currency debt by both S&amp;P and Moody’s could have seen South African debt lose its place in Citi’s World Government Bond Index (WGBI), the biggest of the global benchmarks and tracked by about $2-3 trillion of funds.
Zuma directed Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba on Monday to finalize proposals for expenditure cuts amounting to 25 billion rand ($2 billion) and revenue boosting measures totaling 15 billion rand &#8211; including through taxes.
A proposal by a presidential commission to introduce free higher education should also be implemented in a “fiscally-sustainable manner”, the statement from Zuma’s office said.
Gigaba in October unveiled a gloomy outlook for the economy as he flagged weaker growth expectations, wider budget deficit estimates and rising government debt.
Both S&amp;P and Moody’s cited deterioration in South Africa’s economic growth prospects and public finances.
As of 1032 GMT, the rand <a href="https://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies/quote?srcCurr=ZAR&amp;destCurr=USD">ZAR=D3</a> was trading at 13.7450 per dollar, 2.98 percent firmer than its New York close on Friday, when it had tumbled 2 percent following S&amp;P&#8217;s announcement.
“The market is finding some relief in the fact that Moody’s has chosen to give us basically till February before they change our rating, if they do change our rating,” said Shaun Murison, currency strategist at IG Markets.
In fixed income, the yield for the benchmark government bond ZAR186= was down 10 basis points to 9.235 percent, also recovering after rising as much as 11 basis points earlier in the session.
Moody’s said the review will allow it to assess the South African authorities’ willingness and ability to respond to the rising pressures through growth-supportive fiscal adjustments that raise revenues and contain expenditures.
“The review period may not conclude until the size and the composition of the 2018 budget is known next February,” Moody’s senior analyst for South Africa, Zuzana Brixiova, said in a statement.
Moody’s rates South Africa’s foreign and local currency debt on their lowest investment grade rung of Baa3.
<h3>VOLATILITY</h3>
S&amp;P’s decision will see South Africa excluded from the Barclays Global Aggregate index, whose inclusion criteria requires investment grade rating on its local currency debt from any two ratings agencies.
Fitch already rates South African debt as “junk”, and affirmed the rating on Thursday.
If nothing changes, the country will be downgraded to “junk” by all ratings agencies and the WGBI dream will be no more, at least for many a year, said Standard Bank chief trader Warrick Butler in a note.
“What this means, in terms of the currency, will be increased volatility.”
Falling out of the WGBI could have led to a larger sell-off in bonds, even though rising yields could present a buying opportunity for some yield-hungry investors.
“If you look at some of the metrics the real yields are among the highest in EM, the domestic curve is extremely steep, the current account is in better place than it was three to four years ago and the rand is quite competitive against likes of (Russia‘s) rouble or Brazilian real,” said London-based Paul Greer, senior trader at Fidelity International.
“On the local side the real yield and steepness of curve look attractive from tactical perspective.”
Analysts said an exclusion from the Barclays index would lead to outflows of about $2 billion, compared with more than $10 billion if South Africa was to fall out of Citi’s WGBI.
South African debt was dropped from one the widely used global bond indexes, the JPMorgan Emerging Market Bond Index Global in April after S&amp;P and Fitch downgraded foreign currency debt to sub-investment grade.
On the stock market, the Top-40 <a href="https://www.reuters.com/finance/markets/index?symbol=.JTOPI">.JTOPI</a> index was 0.25 percent lower at 53,863 while the broader all-share <a href="https://www.reuters.com/finance/markets/index?symbol=.JALSH">.JALSH</a> was down 0.24 percent at 60,180.
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Additional reporting by Sujata Rao in London; Editing by James Macharia and Richard Balmforth
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South Africa’s Zuma calls for action after S&P downgrade, rand up on Moody’s reprieve

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The WGBI is the most used global bond index for both indexation and benchmark purposes and requires at least one rating agency between S&#038;P and Moody’s to assign an investment grade credit rating to the local currency government bonds for inclusion.

Why Goldman Sachs is buying into Ramaphosa’s New Deal

<a href="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/SP-downgrade.pdf">Standard &amp; Poor’s has downgraded South Africa&#8217;s</a> local currency debt to junk and lowered its rating on debt denominated in foreign currency to BB from BB+ while changing its outlook on both the nation&#8217;s foreign and local currency ratings to stable.
<a href="https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-places-South-Africas-Baa3-ratings-on-review-for-downgrade--PR_375816">Moody&#8217;s</a> has placed South Africa&#8217;s local currency debt on review for downgrade citing &#8220;a series of recent developments which suggest that South Africa&#8217;s economic and fiscal challenges are more pronounced than Moody&#8217;s had previously assumed. Growth prospects are weaker and material budgetary revenue shortfalls have emerged alongside increased spending pressures. Altogether, these promise a faster and larger rise in government debt-to-GDP than previously expected&#8221;.
Moody&#8217;s says the review will allow it to &#8220;assess the South African authorities&#8217; willingness and ability to respond to these rising pressures through growth-supportive fiscal adjustments that raise revenues and contain expenditures; structural economic reforms that ease domestic bottlenecks to growth; and improvements to SOE governance that contain contingent liabilities. The review period may not conclude until the size and the composition of the 2018 budget is known next February. This will also allow Moody&#8217;s to assess the policy implications of political developments during the review period and the likelihood of pressures on South Africa&#8217;s key policymaking institutions persisting&#8221;.
<a href="http://cnbc.africa/news/southern-africa/2017/11/23/fitch-ratings-affirms-south-africas-ratings-keeps-outlook-stable/">Fitch on Thursday</a> kept South Africa at sub-investment grade for its local currency credit rating.
Moody&#8217;s decision saved South Africa from being <a href="http://cnbc.africa/trending/sa-downgrade/2017/11/24/sa-downgrade-2/">booted out of the Citigroup World Government Bond Index</a>  which could have seen foreign outflows from South Africa of between <a href="http://cnbc.africa/videos/2017/11/23/sarbs-mminele-what-a-downgrade-would-mean-for-sa/">10-14bn dollars</a>.
The rand fell to 14.14 to the dollar at 11:30pm. It was trading at 13.87 just prior to S&amp;P&#8217;s announcement.
S&amp;P attributed the downgrade to the following:
<ul>
<li>Weak GDP growth leading to further deterioration of South Africa&#8217;s public finances beyond its previous expectations.</li>
<li>Expectation that government will attempt to introduce offsetting measures in an effort to improve budgetary outcomes, but these may not be strong enough to stabilise public finances, and may weaken economic growth further in the near term.</li>
</ul>
<table width="695">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="201">Description</td>
<td width="77">S&amp;P</td>
<td width="77">Fitch</td>
<td width="77">Moody’s (S&amp;P equivalent)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="201">Foreign currency international scale rating</td>
<td width="77">BB</td>
<td width="77">BB+</td>
<td width="77">BBB-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="201">Outlook</td>
<td width="77">Stable</td>
<td width="77">Stable</td>
<td width="77">Review for downgrade</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="201">Ranking</td>
<td width="77">Sub-investment</td>
<td width="77">Sub-investment</td>
<td width="77">Investment</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="201">Local currency international scale rating</td>
<td width="77">BB+</td>
<td width="77">BB+</td>
<td width="77">BBB-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="201">Outlook</td>
<td width="77">Stable</td>
<td width="77">Stable</td>
<td width="77">Review for downgrade</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="201">Ranking</td>
<td width="77">Sub-investment</td>
<td width="77">Sub-investment</td>
<td width="77">Investment</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="201">Date of last rating action</td>
<td width="77">24th November 2017</td>
<td width="77">23th November 2017</td>
<td width="77">24th November 2017</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
In response to the rating agencies&#8217; decisions the CEO Initiative said: &#8220;South Africa’s already fragile economic growth prospects and high levels of unemployment have been dealt another significant blow following Standard &amp; Poor’s downgrade of the country’s government debt denominated in local currency to sub-investment grade, and debt denominated in foreign currency to BB from BB+.
&#8220;Two of the three major ratings agencies now have South Africa’s foreign and local currency government debt classified as so-called ‘junk’ with only Moody’s retaining their local currency rating at the lowest level of investment grade, and placing the country’s credit on review for a downgrade. This makes it more expensive for our government to borrow money, and it increases the amount of the government budget that will be spent on interest. Importantly: it reduces the money available for housing, education, healthcare and social grants.
&#8220;While this downgrade does not cause South Africa’s government debt to be excluded from the World Government Bond Index, it will likely lead to capital outflows at a time when our country needs it most. It is especially concerning as the local currency downgrade affects approximately 90% of the government’s debt, of which an estimated 40% is currently held by foreigners who have invested in our country.
&#8220;This downgrade is a response to the mismanagement of government finances as evidenced in the sharply rising trajectory of the levels of government debt and fiscal deficits highlighted in the October Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS).
&#8220;Unfortunately, this action – combined with the downgrades already suffered earlier this year and a low-growth economic environment – will put more strain on already low levels of business and consumer confidence, and mean that the welfare of millions of ordinary South Africans is yet again significantly disadvantaged&#8221;.

S&P downgrades SA’s local debt to junk, Moody’s places it on review for downgrade

Two of the primary global credit rating agencies (Standard &amp; Poor’s and Moody’s) are due to announce the outcomes of their review of the respective credit ratings of South Africa on Friday evening, 24 November 2017. Depending on the result, there could be far reaching effects on both the rand and local government bonds.
<a href="http://cnbc.africa/news/southern-africa/2017/11/23/fitch-ratings-affirms-south-africas-ratings-keeps-outlook-stable/">Fitch’s announcement</a> on Thursday was less significant though, as the agency has already assigned a sub-investment grade local currency credit rating to South Africa. In addition, the rating assigned to a country by Fitch is not a determinant of a country’s bonds in the Citigroup World Government Bond Index (“WGBI”).
The WGBI is the most used global bond index for both indexation and benchmark purposes and requires at least one rating agency between S&amp;P and Moody’s to assign an investment grade credit rating to the local currency government bonds for inclusion in the index.
Current situation
Following the cabinet reshuffle on 31 March 2017 and subsequent political events, all three the major rating agencies reacted by downgrading their credit ratings of South Africa as follows:
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="201">Description</td>
<td width="77">S&amp;P</td>
<td width="77">Fitch</td>
<td width="77">Moody&#8217;s (S&amp;P equivalent)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="201">Foreign currency international scale rating</td>
<td width="77">BB+</td>
<td width="77">BB+</td>
<td width="77">BBB-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="201">Outlook</td>
<td width="77">Negative</td>
<td width="77">Stable</td>
<td width="77">Negative</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="201">Ranking</td>
<td width="77">Sub-investment</td>
<td width="77">Sub-investment</td>
<td width="77">Investment</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="201">Local currency international scale rating</td>
<td width="77">BBB-</td>
<td width="77">BB+</td>
<td width="77">BBB-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="201">Outlook</td>
<td width="77">Negative</td>
<td width="77">Stable</td>
<td width="77">Negative</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="201">Ranking</td>
<td width="77">Investment</td>
<td width="77">Sub-investment</td>
<td width="77">Investment</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="201">Date of last rating action</td>
<td width="77">3 April 2017</td>
<td width="77">23th November 2017</td>
<td width="77">9 June 2017</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Table 2: Ratings assigned as at 20 November 2017
Outlook
Following the delivery of the <a href="http://cnbc.africa/videos/2017/10/26/sa-finance-minister-malusi-gigaba-delivers-mid-term-budget-full-speech/">medium-term budget speech</a> (MTBPS) by Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba on 25 October 2017, all the major rating agencies <a href="http://cnbc.africa/news/southern-africa/2017/10/30/moodys-warns-south-africa-medium-term-budget-signals-credit-negative-change-policy-direction/">expressed concern</a> regarding the deteriorating finances of the South African government. These concerns stemmed from the slippage in fiscal revenue and resultant increase in the forecast budget deficit.
Historically, the government has targeted gradual fiscal consolidation in the medium-term, which provided the rating agencies with a sense of comfort on the finances of the government. However, during this MTBPS, National Treasury forecast that the budget deficit would remain fixed at c.3.9% over the next three years, resulting in government debt to gross domestic product (GDP) continuing to increase to over 60% of GDP by 2021. This presupposes that no remedial action is taken of which none were proposed in the MTBPS.
The lack of a concrete plan to remedy the situation was one of the primary differences between this MTBPS and those of other finance ministers, and that has greatly contributed to the slippage in the bond yields and exchange rates.
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Although most market commentators expected a downgrade to the South African credit rating, most anticipated this to occur following the ANC elective conference in December 2017 and the delivery of the full budget in February 2018. However, the recent statements by the credit rating agencies have raised the probability of further rating downgrades occurring on Friday.
Possible outcomes
The announcements on Friday have four notable outcomes:
<ul>
<li>Neither Moody’s or S&amp;P takes any further action on the South African credit rating;</li>
<li>Moody’s downgrades the local currency and foreign currency international scale rating from Baa3 (BBB- S&amp;P equivalent) to Ba1 (BB+ S&amp;P equivalent), while S&amp;P’s rating remains unchanged;</li>
<li>S&amp;P downgrades the local currency international scale rating from BBB- to BB+ while Moody’s rating remains unchanged; or</li>
<li>S&amp;P downgrades the local currency international scale rating from BBB- to BB+ and Moody’s downgrades the local currency international scale rating from Baa3 to Ba1.</li>
</ul>
Possible bond yield movements
Our base case scenario is that the agencies will either place the rating on review for downgrade or pause until post February next year, making the double downgrade by both agencies a lower probability event. We do, however, expect a downgrade by both before June of next year unless we see significant alterations in policy and the local economic forecasts.  
For each of the above outcomes the market would react differently. By far, the worst outcome would be if both S&amp;P and Moody’s cut the local currency rating to sub-investment grade. South Africa would then fall out of the WGBI and the funds tracking this index as a benchmark would become forced sellers.
The magnitude of this forced selling is difficult to determine, but could be as high as $8 billion (R112 billion at R14.00 exchange rate).  While we believe that most yield reaction of the downgrade to junk has already occurred, we would not be surprised if the benchmark R186 Government Bonds experiences a further sharp selloff to 9.85% or even higher over the short-term.
Historically, yields have recovered in the weeks and months post a downgrade to junk status and it is likely that we would see a similar effect. What could hamper this, however, is the political and policy uncertainty that is likely to remain until the budget next year February.
A short-term relief rally of 25 basis points or so would, however, probably materialise if we retain our position in the WGBI post the ratings release on 24 November.
Over the medium-term, the primary factor determining where our yields settle will be the global backdrop and the risk on/off appetite. South African rates have benefited from the search for yield that was exacerbated by quantitative easing (QE) policies that followed the global financial crisis. The risk is that the unwind or tapering of the QE could disrupt the inflows.
Given that South African bonds currently yield in excess of CPI +5%, we at Ashburton Investments remain fairly constructive on bonds for as long as global inflation remains under control and central banks globally taper their buying programs very gradually.

SA’s $8bn problem if local debt is downgraded

By Mike van der Westhuizen, Portfolio Manager, Citadel
During his 2017 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba, announced figures that surprised even the most bearish of forecasters. Although some fiscal slippage was widely expected, it was the frank transparency with which he delivered his speech that sent the market into panic. There were few positives for him to hide behind.
A tax shortfall of R50.8bn for the 2017/18 fiscal year would translate into a budget deficit of 4.3% of GDP, a 1.2 percentage point slippage on the figures announced in Pravin Gordhan’s last budget speech in February. With limited room to cut expenditure and little talk of additional revenue measures, for now funding this deficit will need to be done through the issuance of more government debt.
In the February Budget, Treasury had aimed to stabilise the debt to GDP ratio at 52.9% by the end of fiscal year 2018/19, but this was revised upwards significantly in the MTBPS to 59.7% in FY2020/21, with the acknowledgement that it could rise above 60% in 2022. Compare this to Moody’s and S&amp;P forecasts which had expected government debt ratios to peak at 53% and 54.9%, respectively over the medium term expenditure framework.
South Africa’s downgrading is no longer an “if” but a “when”. Both S&amp;P and Moody’s have reviews scheduled for 24 November and, while their recent rhetoric has pointed to a wait-and-see until after the ANC elective conference approach, it would not be surprising to see at least one of them pull the trigger sooner rather than later. However, more likely, we could see South Africa’s local currency bond rating be put on review for a downgrade on 24 November, in which case the rating agency has 60 to 90 days to make the move, a period which covers both the ANC elective conference and February 2018 budget. In any case, the negative outlook from the prior downgrade (S&amp;P on 3 April 2017 and Moody’s on 9 June 2017) needs to be resolved within 12 to 18 months, so a downgrade before the end of the first half of 2018 is inevitable.
As we head towards the December ANC elective conference the presidential race is wide open between the two front runners, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma (NDZ) and current deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa (CR17 as he has been dubbed). Without further clarity on who will next lead the ANC, the markets wait with bated breath. CR17 would be seen as the more market friendly candidate, while NDZ would be viewed as just an extension of the current president Zuma regime. With these two factions supposedly forming a rift in the ANC ranks, there is a slim chance that a compromise candidate could sneak in at the last minute.
Making a call on market reaction to either of the above two events is almost as difficult as predicting the outcomes of the events themselves. On the downgrade front, it can be argued that since the MTBPS the currency and bond markets have already priced in an imminent downgrade. Naturally the market could overreact to a confirmation that South Africa is officially sub-investment grade. In addition, if one was to factor in potential bond index exclusion from further downgrades, a large portion of the wall of money that has flowed into South Africa can just as quickly exit. This would almost certainly lead to further bond and currency weakness. On the other hand, we could see some short-term respite if the ratings agencies delay the fate.
On the political front, the market outcome could be seen as almost binary. A CR17 win could see a rally in the rand, bonds and SA facing equities, with arguably stronger reaction should the victory include a unified National Executive Committee (NEC). An NDZ win would spark the opposite, and it could be argued that the market has already priced in this status quo scenario to some extent.
Looking past the upcoming uncertainty, another wave of uncertainty will come unless bold steps are taken. The bottom line is that South Africa needs pro-growth economic policy that is ACTUALLY implemented and not just a regurgitation of a “wish list”. This would help to bolster the budget and the economy by sparking stronger revenue growth, purely from a resurgence in business and consumer confidence. Solve the low growth trap and a lot of other things fall into place. Regardless of what happens in late November and December, the road will remain bumpy until there is a unified ruling party. In the current politically sensitive landscape, real change looks unlikely for the time being.

South Africa’s downgrading is no longer an “if” but a “when” – Citadel

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Moody&#8217;s Investors Service has downgraded Nigeria&#8217;s government&#8217;s long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt rating from B1 to B2.

Moody’s downgrades Nigeria’s sovereign rating to B2, stable outlook

By Moody&#8217;s
New York, November 07, 2017 &#8212; Moody&#8217;s Investors Service has today downgraded the Government of Nigeria&#8217;s long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt rating to B2 from B1 and the senior unsecured MTN program rating and the provisional senior unsecured debt rating to (P)B2 from (P)B1. The rating outlook remains stable.
<div id="attachment_127928" style="width: 610px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-127928" class="wp-image-127928 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/moody_s_reuters.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="368" />A Moody&#8217;s sign is displayed on 7 World Trade Center, the company&#8217;s corporate headquarters in New York, February 6, 2013. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid</div>
The key drivers are as follows:
<ol>
<li>The authorities&#8217; efforts to address the key structural weakness exposed by the oil price shock by broadening the non-oil revenue base have so far proven largely unsuccessful.</li>
<li>As a consequence, while debt levels remain contained and notwithstanding recent cyclical improvements, the government&#8217;s balance sheet remains structurally exposed to further economic or financial shocks, with interest payments very high relative to revenues and deficits elevated despite cuts in capital spending.</li>
</ol>
The stable outlook reflects the fact that the likelihood of a shock occurring that would further impair Nigeria&#8217;s economic and fiscal strength remains low, with external vulnerabilities having receded supported by the rebound in oil production, the current account projected to remain in surplus, and reserves boosted through external borrowings and increased foreign capital inflows. Medium-term growth prospects are also credit supportive.
Concurrently, Moody&#8217;s has lowered the long-term foreign-currency bond ceiling to B1 from Ba3 and the long-term foreign currency deposit ceiling to B3 from B2. The long-term local-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at Ba1.
RATINGS RATIONALE
RATIONALE FOR DOWNGRADE TO B2
THE AUTHORITIES&#8217; EFFORTS TO INCREASE NON-OIL REVENUE HAVE SO FAR PROVEN LARGELY UNSUCCESSFUL, WITH KEY STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES PERSISTING
The first driver of the rating action is Nigeria&#8217;s slower than anticipated progress in addressing its key structural weakness, which is its significant reliance on a single sector to drive government revenues as well as growth and exports. The oil shock severely weakened Nigeria&#8217;s public finances, with general government revenues suffering a 50% decline between 2014 and 2016 (from 10.5% of GDP to 5.3% respectively). The damage wrought by the oil price shock has not yet been undone, and the downgrade reflects Moody&#8217;s view that this weakness in Nigeria&#8217;s public finances will remain for some years to come; Moody&#8217;s forecasts general government revenue to average only 6.4% of GDP over 2017-2019, the lowest level of any sovereign rated by Moody&#8217;s.
The results of the authorities&#8217; efforts to increase non-oil revenue since late 2015, which have focused on improving compliance and broadening the tax base, have been limited and negatively impacted by a contractionary environment in 2016. The Federal Revenue Inland Service (FRIS) has been able to increase non-oil revenue by 15% in nominal terms as of September 2017 compared to 2016, but this is at a pace that is below nominal GDP growth. Meanwhile, the independent re-appropriation of revenues from the ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) has yielded less than projected results for two consecutive years, highlighting the considerable execution risks inherent in the transition to a less oil-dependent budget. Hence, while the rebound in the oil price and in oil production has led to oil revenues out performing the 2017 budget target, non-oil tax revenues are still below target with a 30% shortfall for the federal government at the end of September compared to budget and likely a similar situation for states and municipalities.
The challenges on the revenue side will negatively impact potential growth. Since 2014, the authorities have offset revenue shortfalls with large cuts in much needed capital expenditure, a trend that Moody&#8217;s expects to continue. In 2017 the government is likely to only match 2016 capital spending that reached NGN1.2 trillion (or 1.2% of GDP), given the 2017 budget is expected to run on a six-month cycle (for capital expenditures only) as the 2018 budget is likely to be passed in January. This is less than 50% of the 2017 budget for capital spending and still an insufficient level to have a meaningful impact on the large infrastructure gap that significantly constrains the country&#8217;s potential growth.
WHILE DEBT LEVELS REMAIN CONTAINED, THE GOVERNMENT&#8217;S BALANCE SHEET REMAINS EXPOSED TO FURTHER SHOCKS.
As a consequence of the inability to expand the non-oil revenue base, the government&#8217;s balance sheet will remain exposed to further shocks. Deficits will remain elevated and debt affordability will remain challenged, despite debt levels remaining contained. That exposure will persist notwithstanding the recent improvements in the economy, which are primarily cyclical and related to the strengthening in the oil sector.
Moody&#8217;s projects a general government budget deficit of 3.6% of GDP in 2017, down from 4.7% in 2016. In 2018, the deficit will decline only slightly to 3.2% of GDP, comprised of a 2% of GDP federal government budget deficit and around 1% of GDP deficit at the state and municipality levels plus some arrears that are likely to be split between the three levels of government. This is nearly double the general government deficits of 1.9% of GDP averaged between 2010 and 2015. While Nigeria&#8217;s general government deficit compares favourably to the 5.5% and 4.6% of GDP median budget deficit for B1- and B2-rated sovereigns, the challenges it poses are magnified by the country&#8217;s underdeveloped revenue base: Nigeria&#8217;s budget deficit is equivalent to roughly half of total general government revenue—a ratio much weaker than the median of B-rated sovereigns.
Relatedly, debt service is consuming an ever larger share of government revenue. At the federal level, debt service accounted for 38.2% of total revenues by the end of June, up from 29% in 2014 and 23% in 2013. At the broader general government level, the ratio of interest payments to general government revenues peaked at just under 30% in 2016, 10 percentage points above what the rating agency anticipated in December 2016 when it affirmed the previous rating of B1 and over four times higher than the B2 median of 6.6% in 2017. Moody&#8217;s expects the ratio of interest payments to general government revenues to only slowly decline to 28.4% in 2017.
While debt levels remain low, outstanding general government indebtedness has increased by around 50 per cent in recent years. Moreover, around a quarter of the NGN15 trillion of domestic debt outstanding at the end of June 2017 is comprised of T-bills, increasing refinancing risk and interest rate exposure. With inflation likely remaining elevated over the next two years, interest rates are likely to decline only slowly: Moody&#8217;s expects inflation to decline gradually from its 2016 peak of 18.6% to around 14% at the end of 2017 and 12% at the end of 2018. The government is seeking to shift the balance of issuance away from costly short-term domestic debt towards longer-term external borrowing in the Eurobond markets or from multilateral institutions including the African Development Bank (AfDB) and World Bank (The). However, the impact of this strategy will be slow to materialise: Moody&#8217;s estimates that external debt will represent 25% of general government debt by end-2017, versus 20% a year before.
Nigeria&#8217;s existing financial buffers are too small to provide any meaningful cushion against protracted oil price volatility or other shocks. As at the end of October, the excess crude account (ECA) stood at $2.4 billion and the National Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA) at $2 billion, equivalent to merely 0.6% and 0.5% of GDP respectively.
RATIONALE FOR THE STABLE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects Moody&#8217;s view that the risk of a shock occurring that would further impair Nigeria&#8217;s economic and fiscal strength remains low, in part because of the recent improvement in the growth outlook and the measures taken to address foreign exchange shortages.
Nigeria&#8217;s economic growth and US dollar earnings are likely to continue to improve over the coming two years, albeit driven primarily by a recovery in oil production and revenues and relatedly in the availability of foreign exchange, rather than by a deepening of the non-oil economy.
In 2017, oil production has been steadily growing to currently reach 2.2 mbpd (including condensates). The government has tripled the amnesty programme payment to militants over the next two years to reduce the likelihood of production disruptions. The absence of further arrears on cash calls in Joint Ventures (JVs) this year has led some oil majors to consider further large investments in JVs from 2018. Moody&#8217;s baseline scenario assumes a slow but steady increase in oil production, averaging 2.3 mbpd between 2018 and 2020. Moody&#8217;s expects real GDP growth to reach 3.3% in 2018, compared to 1.7% in 2017 following the -1.5% contraction in 2016.
External vulnerabilities have receded. Foreign exchange reserves are expected to reach $38 billion at the end of 2017, albeit partly as a consequence of increased external indebtedness. Since the creation of the export-import window by the Central Bank in April 2016, net capital inflows have reached $5 billion and dollar liquidity &#8212; one of the main reasons for the economic contraction of 1.5% in 2016 &#8212; has improved. Nigeria&#8217;s current account has moved back further into surplus, supported by the pickup in both oil production and oil prices, and will likely average 1.5% in of GDP during 2018 and 2019. The overall balance of payments will benefit from government external borrowings and improved foreign capital inflows. At 24% in 2018, Moody&#8217;s expects that Nigeria&#8217;s External Vulnerability Indicator (the ratio of near-term economy-wide external outflows to foreign exchange reserves) will remain well below the B2 median of around 64%.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP
Positive pressure on Nigeria&#8217;s issuer rating could be exerted by: (1) the successful implementation of structural reforms, particularly with respect to public resource management and the broadening of the revenue base; (2) material improvement in institutional strength with respect to corruption, government effectiveness, and the rule of law; (3) the rebuilding of large financial buffers sufficient to shelter the economy against a prolonged period of oil price and production volatility.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING DOWN
Nigeria&#8217;s B2 issuer rating could be downgraded if Moody&#8217;s concluded that the sovereign&#8217;s exposure to a financing shock had materially increased, perhaps because of (1) continued erosion of debt affordability or a material deterioration in the government&#8217;s balance sheet in some other respect; or (2) materially weaker medium-term growth, for example as a result of delays in implementing key structural reforms, especially in the oil sector, or continued militancy in the Niger Delta, which undermine the level of oil production over the medium-term.
GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 5,936 (2016 Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income)
Real GDP growth (% change): 1.7 % (2017 Estimate) (also known as GDP Growth)
Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 14.4 % (2017 Estimate)
Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -3.6 % (2017 Estimate) (also known as Fiscal Balance)
Current Account Balance/GDP: 1.8 % (2017 Estimate) (also known as External Balance)
External debt/GDP: 7.7 % (2016 Actual)
Level of economic development: Low level of economic resilience
Default history: No default events (on bonds or loans) have been recorded since 1983.
On 02 November 2017, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Government of Nigeria. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer&#8217;s economic fundamentals, including its economic strength, have not materially changed. The issuer&#8217;s institutional strength/ framework, have not materially changed. The issuer&#8217;s fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has materially decreased

Moody’s downgrades Nigeria’s sovereign issuer rating to B2 with a stable outlook

Charlie Robertson | Renaissance Capital
We think Senegal is one of the good news stories in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which will be reinforced as GDP is revised up by perhaps 30% in 2018.
<div id="attachment_289336" style="width: 1290px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-289336" class="wp-image-289336 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Senegal_Flag_Other_Wikimedia.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="853" />Senegal – another big rebasing to GDP</div>
Senegal was one of only two Sub-Saharan Africa countries to be upgraded in 2017 
Senegal is the only SSA country we follow to get upgraded in 2017, from B1 to Ba3 by Moody’s in April. This put it one notch above the B+ S&amp;P rating which is unchanged since 2000. In the rest of SSA over 2017, only Burkina Faso received an upgrade from B- to B; it is also in the West Africa Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). There are IMF programmes with virtually every one of the WAEMU member states, which may be helping this positive trend. We have assumed no further change in Senegal’s ratings, but after this week’s visit to Dakar, we see upside risk to ratings in 2018-2019.
GDP to be revised up, perhaps by 30%, improving most ratios significantly 
The most likely trigger is the GDP rebasing that should arrive in 2018, which could lift GDP by around 30%. While not as dramatic as this decade’s 60% GDP hike in Ghana or the nearly 100% rise in Nigeria, it will make a significant difference to Senegal’s ratios. We expect the public debt ratio to drop from 61% of GDP in 2017 to perhaps 46% of GDP in 2018. Gross external debt may fall from around 55-62% of GDP in 2016-2017 to 39% of GDP in 2018-2019, even assuming new eurobond issuance. The current account (C/A) deficit may shrink from the IMF forecast of 5-6% of GDP in 2018-2019 to 4% of GDP and the budget deficit from 3% of GDP to 2%. The only negatives we see are indicators such as exports to GDP (which will fall) or government fiscal revenues to GDP; the latter may fall from a relatively good figure of 20% of GDP now to around 16% of GDP (still better than many in SSA).
This comes against a strong backdrop of government-led infrastructure spending growth
Senegal already looks pretty good to us (and Moody’s evidently) due to strong 6-7% GDP growth in 2015-2017, a one-third reduction in the budget deficit ratio from 5-6% of GDP in 2011-2015 to 3-4% of GDP in 2017, and a halving of the C/A deficit from 10-11% of GDP in 2012-2013 to 5% of GDP in 2017. We think the WAEMU currency is working for Senegal, with that currency within 1% of its long-term average value (XOF562/$) based on our real effective exchange rate (REER) model that extends back to 1995. It has been around fair value 70% of the time since 1995, so stability is normal, and we assume will be maintained. The government is pushing an investment programme which has more than doubled public debt from 24% of GDP in 2008 (post-HIPC) and is paying for infrastructure developments such as the new airport due to open next month. For equity investors, the only semi-liquid name is the telecoms company Sonatel, which is a shame as bank lending is strong. The rebasing of GDP will cut the bank lending stock to GDP from around 38% of GDP to 27% of GDP, meaning there is plenty of room for further growth, as long-term interest rates are around 6-7% but nominal GDP has been rising by 7-8%. Note, good harvests have lifted GDP in recent years – growth may slow to 5-6% in either 2018-2019 if weather conditions are less benign. The other indicator to watch is FX reserves.
On a one-year horizon, we see good reason for Senegal to have tight spreads 
For debt investors it is hard to be super-excited when eurobond yields are already the tightest among its peer group. Is it right to trade tighter than Ivory Coast? Yes, politics are evidently far more stable (Senegal has never suffered a military coup) and so fiscal risks seem lower. On a multi-year horizon, literacy data suggest other SSA credits (eg Ghana, Kenya, Zambia) should outperform as they can industrialise earlier. But on a one-year horizon, we would be happy holders of Senegal’s eurobonds and see modest scope for Senegal to outperform due to the GDP rebasing.
Bank lending to the private and non-central government has been rising steadily over the past decade and a half.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-289330 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Renaissance-Fig_01.png" alt="" width="561" height="290" />
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-289331 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Renaissance-Fig_02.png" alt="" width="589" height="319" />
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-289332 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Renaissance-Fig_03.png" alt="" width="584" height="307" />
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-289333 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Renaissance-Fig_04.png" alt="" width="802" height="295" />
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-289334 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Renaissance-Fig_05.png" alt="" width="802" height="376" />
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-289335 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Renaissance-Fig_06.png" alt="" width="594" height="597" />

Senegal – Sub-Saharan Africa’s good news story

On 25 October, South Africa’s (Baa3 negative) Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba presented the country’s medium-term budget, which signals a marked credit-negative departure from earlier fiscal consolidation efforts.
<div id="attachment_127928" style="width: 610px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-127928" class="wp-image-127928 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/moody_s_reuters.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="368" />A Moody&#8217;s sign is displayed on 7 World Trade Center, the company&#8217;s corporate headquarters in New York, February 6, 2013. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid</div>
&nbsp;
<p style="line-height: 18.0pt; background: white; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; widows: 2; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; word-spacing: 0px; margin: 0cm 0cm 7.5pt 0cm;">The medium-term budget policy statement (MTBPS) revealed sizeable slippage in fiscal revenue (estimated by the National Treasury at 1.1% of GDP) in fiscal 2017, which ends 31 March 2018, relative to the February budget. The revenue shortfall is a key driver behind the National Treasury’s projections for the headline fiscal deficit of 4.3% of GDP in fiscal 2017, the highest level since 2009 and a substantial increase from 3.4% in the budget presented in February 2017.
<p style="line-height: 18.0pt; background: white; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; widows: 2; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; word-spacing: 0px; margin: 0cm 0cm 7.5pt 0cm;">Significantly, the MTBPS envisages budget deficits remaining at 3.9% of GDP over the next three fiscal years, in contrast with targeted gradual fiscal consolidation tabled in the February budget. As a result, the National Treasury now expects accelerated accumulation of public debt, and expects public debt to GDP to exceed 60% of GDP by fiscal 2021, a notable departure from the debt stabilization objective outlined in the February budget.
<p style="line-height: 18.0pt; background: white; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; widows: 2; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; word-spacing: 0px; margin: 0cm 0cm 7.5pt 0cm;">Concurrent with the debt burden increasing almost 7% annually between fiscal 2016 and fiscal 2020, the cost of borrowing has risen. According to Treasury projections, the interest burden will be 15% of revenue by 2020-21, which exceeds the 9.8% median of similarly rated sovereign peers. In our view, at this level, the cost of debt servicing is crowding out pro-growth expenditures while raising mandatory recurrent spending.
<p style="line-height: 18.0pt; background: white; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; widows: 2; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; word-spacing: 0px; margin: 0cm 0cm 7.5pt 0cm;">The absence of fiscal consolidation both in terms of containing the fiscal deficits and reducing mandatory recurrent spending is credit negative, undermining debt sustainability and eliminating room for deploying fiscal stimulus in the event of a negative economic shock. Fiscal risks stemming from the relatively rapid debt increase are exacerbated by a continued increase in government guarantees to state-owned enterprises, where almost half is concentrated in Eskom, which generates 95% of South Africa’s electricity.
<p style="line-height: 18.0pt; background: white; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; widows: 2; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; word-spacing: 0px; margin: 0cm 0cm 7.5pt 0cm;">Moreover, the lack of fiscal consolidation in the budget is also a setback to already feeble business confidence and growth. The lack of fiscal prudence indicated by the budget will undermine growth in an economy in a recession since first-quarter 2017 with weak economic activity, according to recent high-frequency indicators.
<p style="line-height: 18.0pt; background: white; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; widows: 2; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; word-spacing: 0px; margin: 0cm 0cm 7.5pt 0cm;">The current MTBPS is the first fiscal policy document (i.e., budget or mini-budget) in the past several years that does not have the objective of fiscal consolidation.
<p style="line-height: 18.0pt; background: white; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; widows: 2; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; word-spacing: 0px; margin: 0cm 0cm 7.5pt 0cm;">In our view, unless the government presents a credible fiscal consolidation plan in the February 2018 budget, debt sustainability is at risk.
<p style="line-height: 18.0pt; background: white; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; widows: 2; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; word-spacing: 0px; margin: 0cm 0cm 7.5pt 0cm;">However, with lower levels of revenue than formerly projected, the thrust of the adjustment would need to come from the expenditure side, which will be challenging to achieve amid rising spending pressures in the run up to 2019 elections.

Moody’s warns South Africa: Medium-Term Budget Signals Credit-Negative Change in Policy Direction

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The latest note on Rwanda from Moody&#8217;s Investors Service has showed that the East African economy has a more robust institutional framework than most of its Sub-Saharan African peers, which is important credit strength. The rating agency has however highlighted a possibility of negative credit pressure if external headwinds prove more persistent and the balance of payments deteriorates more than forecasted, eroding foreign-exchange reserves. Elisa Parisi-Capone, Vice President and Sovereign Analyst, Moody’s joins CNBC Africa for more.

Rwanda credit profile reflects institutional strength – Moody’s

By: Jameel Ahmad | FXTM
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We are all subjected to tests and scorecards as we go through life, literally within seconds of being born we are given the Apgar test to establish our physical condition. As we progress up the age scale, we are scored on academic, athletic and professional levels. Tests and scorecards are useful tools to get a benchmark of standards and expectations of performance and ability. Similarly, the institutions we create to turn the wheels of commerce, are not immune to the rigors of testing, and in order to keep them competitive and accountable, they have to face an enormous amounts of scrutiny from various regulatory and compliance bodies. Perhaps the most deserving of these checks and balances are Governments, especially when they borrow money from other organizations, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
There are three main agencies that run health checks on Sovereign debt and the debt that exchanges hands between large financial institutions and corporations. They are Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch. The outcome of the scorecards have an enormous impact on the prospects of the institution that has been rated, so they wield a lot of influence.
The credit risk of a country or institution is assessed in much the same way as an individual would be, if they were applying for a loan, i.e. income, stability, prospects and past behaviour are scrutinized. If the country being evaluated has fiscal or political challenges, its rating is lowered. The end result is that investors may require higher returns to offset the risk. This is never good news because a high debt repayment burden, impacts cash flow and long term growth.
South Africa has recently had to endure a downgrade by all three agencies within months of each other, but they are not alone, all G7 countries have experienced downgrades of their financial institutions and or Governments in the last 7 years. The most recent countries affected by downgrades, are Canada and Australia, who have weakening credit conditions- due to surge in household debt
Ratings Agencies came about in the mid 1800’s to help investors get insights into the finances of canals and rail roads that were being constructed. There are actually many ratings agencies but the big three make up approximately 95% of the ratings industry. Moody&#8217;s Investors Service and Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s (S&amp;P) together control 80% of the global market, and Fitch Ratings controls a further 15%.
The reason the big three are the “go to” agencies is largely because of their track record and their standing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
In 1975, the SEC acknowledged their status under the Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations (NRSRO) banner. An endorsement from an NRSRO means countries and financial institutions wishing to issue bonds can do so efficiently, knowing that the official rating can be trusted. However, this comes with a caveat, the bigger agencies do not charge for information, they get their fees from the institutions that want to be rated. In theory, there could be conflict because there is an incentive to “please” the body that asks for the rating”. However this is unlikely because the reputation of the agency is based on the accuracy of the ratings, inaccurate ratings would canabalise their business.
Even heavy hitters like the big three make mistakes or perhaps get caught in the hype of strong market sentiment. The credit crisis in 2007 is a good example of this. When mortgage-backed securities were booming –they were given excellent ratings, even though the products were actually worthless. When this fact was exposed to the markets, it triggered one of the worst financial meltdowns in recent history.
Incorrect ratings, as we saw from the 2007 credit crunch, have the ability to destabilise a country and it is for this reason that the European Parliament set up a watchdog called The European Securities and Markets Authority and they have been tasked with making sure that agencies conform to a set of protocols that form a firewall between them and the markets. The rules state that agencies can now only issue ratings on a country three times in a year and they have to wait until markets have closed before they release their reports.  Comments and ratings from agencies have a direct and profound impact on currencies, economies and markets, so it is vital that their reports and findings are accurate and well researched.  When a county is downgraded for its sovereign debt, you will almost always see it play out in the currency and stock markets, so getting the rating wrong is not an option
The EU watchdog set up to monitor credit ratings agencies in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis has established good foundations, but significant risks remain to be addressed, according to a new report from the European Court of Auditors.
So the regulators need to be regulated too. While the Auditors highlighted some flaws in the watchdog, it has significantly helped to ensure the ratings agencies operate within acceptable boundaries and that their reporting standards are uniform and accurate.
Ratings agencies will continue to provide us with a litmus test on the health of nations and companies for some time. There have been suggestions to take the responsibility of ratings out of private hands and to get all nations to contribute to a central fund that allows a body like the UN to manage the ratings. There is certainly merit in not allowing private entities to make these massive decisions and in a world that has gone a little stir crazy on the political front, anything is possible.

You’re Rated! The good the bad and the impact of ratings agencies

South Africa’s credit rating is well placed at the lowest investment grade, but rising foreign ownership of the government’s local-currency bonds is a risk, a senior analyst at Moody’s ratings agency said.
Two of the three large international ratings agencies &#8211; S&amp;P Global and Fitch &#8211; downgraded South Africa’s foreign-currency rating to speculative grade, or “junk” status, this year after the economy slowed and an abrupt Cabinet reshuffle in March.
Moody’s downgraded South Africa to “Baa3”, one notch above junk, in June and has the continent’s most industrialised economy on a negative outlook.
The ratings downgrades have put pressure on South African asset prices and could increase its borrowing costs.
“We think currently South Africa is well placed at Baa3 with a negative outlook. We had a rating action fairly recently in June,” Zuzana Brixiova, a Moody’s vice president, told Reuters at an investor conference in London.
However, she said that since the June downgrade she had observed a larger-than-expected shortfall in South African government revenues and an increase in foreign financing of government borrowing in rand to around 40 percent.
“To some extent the risk of a ‘sudden stop’ has increased,” she said, referring to the risk that an abrupt change in investor sentiment could result in a sharp reduction in capital flows into South Africa.
Among other concerns, Brixiova cited weak economic growth in South Africa and pressure on institutions, which she said “were being constantly tested”.
She said that whoever the ruling ANC party chooses as its next leader at a major conference in December, Moody’s “would wait and follow what this really means for the policy direction”.
South Africa was earlier dropped from one of the widely used global bond indices, and it risks being excluded from a larger index run by U.S. bank Citi if both Moody’s and S&amp;P cut the country’s local-currency rating to junk.
Both agencies have South African local debt at the lowest investment grade, and Brixiova said Moody’s was likely to keep one unified rating for South African foreign and local debt.
Looking at sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, Brixiova said it was important for countries to “rebuild their fiscal space” in the wake of the slump in commodity prices in recent years.
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Reporting by Alexander Winning and Karin Strohecker; Editing by Toby Chopra
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Moody’s says South Africa credit rating well placed

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According to Senegal&#8217;s statistics office, the country’s economic growth rate has risen from 5.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2017 to 6.4 per cent in the second quarter.

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Moody’s downgrades Nigeria’s sovereign issuer rating to B2 with a stable outlook

Senegal – Sub-Saharan Africa’s good news story

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