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<p>It’s going to be a big weekend in African politics all eyes will be on East London in South Africa’s Eastern Cape. CNBC Africa’s Karabo Lethlatha spoke to a resident of Mdantsane about his expectations from ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa.</p>


Ramaphosa might be good for business but what about the man on the street?

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<p>It’s going to be a big weekend in African politics all eyes will be on East London in South Africa’s Eastern Cape.</p>


ANC at 106: Will Zuma go?

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<p>It’s the big unfolding story of the day and it’s going to be the talk of the weekend across Africa. The birthday party of South Africa’s ruling African National Congress is usually a celebration and little else.</p>


Rumours NDZ maybe interim president of SA

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<p>President Jacob Zuma has finally appointed a commission of inquiry into state capture but is this enough to keep him as president of the country until 2019?</p>


Zuma is out: It’s not a matter of if; it’s a matter of when – analyst

<p>Roger Southall, <em>University of the Witwatersrand</em></p>
<p>Rumours that President Jacob Zuma has instructed the South African National Defence Force to draw up plans for implementing a state of emergency may or may not be true. Nonetheless they are evidence of South Africa’s febrile political atmosphere.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-294817 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Cyril-Ramaphosa-GettyImages_RZ.png" alt="" width="850" height="566" /></p>
<p>But any assumption that the election of Cyril Ramaphosa as the new leader of the African National Congress (ANC), after winning the race against Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, will place South Africa on an even keel are misplaced. Indeed, the drama may only be beginning.</p>
<p>It’s useful to look back to 2007 when President Thabo Mbeki unwisely ran for a third term as ANC leader. His unpopularity among large segments of the party provided the platform for his defeat by Zuma at Polokwane. Within a few months the National Executive Committee of the ANC latched onto an excuse to ask Mbeki to stand down as president of the country before the end of his term of office. Being committed to the traditions of party loyalty he complied, resigning as president some eight months before the Constitution required him to do so.</p>
<p>The question this raises is whether South Africa should now expect a repeat performance following the election of a new leader of the ANC. Will this lead to a party instruction to Zuma to stand down as president of the country? And if it does, will he do what Mbeki did and meekly resign?</p>
<p>There’s a big difference between the two scenarios: Mbeki had no reason to fear the consequences of leaving office. Zuma, on the other hand, has numerous reasons to cling to power. This is what makes him, and the immediate future, dangerous for South Africa, and suggests the country faces instability.</p>
<h2>Why Zuma won’t go</h2>
<p>It is not out of the question that Zuma may say to himself, and to South Africa, that he is not going anywhere. He is losing court case after court case, and judicial decisions are increasingly narrowing his legal capacity to block official and independent investigations into the extent of state capture by business interests close to him.</p>
<p>With every passing day, the prospects of his finding himself in the dock, facing 783 charges, including of corruption and racketeering, also increase.</p>
<p>Zuma will have every constitutional right to defy an ANC instruction to stand down as state president until his term expires following the next general election in 2019, and the new parliament’s election of a new president. In terms of the South African Constitution, his term of office will be brought to an early end only if parliament passes a vote of no confidence in his presidency, or votes that, for one reason or another, he is unfit for office.</p>
<p>But today’s ANC is so divided that it cannot be assumed that a majority of ANC MPs would back a motion of no confidence, even following the election of Ramaphosa as the party’s new leader.</p>
<p>In other words, there is a very real prospect that South Africa will see itself ruled for at least another 18 months or so by what is termed “two centres of power”, with the authority and the legitimacy of the party (formally backing Ramaphosa) vying against that of the state (headed by Zuma).</p>
<h2>Throwing caution to the wind</h2>
<p>As if that is not a sufficient condition for political instability, we may expect that Zuma will continue to use his executive power to erect defences against his future prosecution. He will reckon to leave office only with guarantees of immunity. Until he gets them, Zuma will defy all blandishments to go. And if he does not get what he wants, he may throw caution to the wind and go for broke.</p>
<p>Hence, perhaps, the possibility that he is prepared to invoke a state of emergency.</p>
<p>The grounds for Zuma imposing a state of emergency would be specious, summoned up to defend his interests and those backing him. They would be likely to infer foreign interference in affairs of state, alongside suggestions that white monopoly capital, whites as a whole as well as nefarious others were conspiring to prevent much needed radical economic transformation. Present constitutional arrangements would be declared counter-revolutionary and those defending them doing so only to protect their material interests.</p>
<p>After a matter of time, such justifications would probably be declared unconstitutional by the judiciary. It is then that there would be a confrontation between raw power and the Constitution. If such a situation should arise, we cannot be sure which would be the winner.</p>
<h2>South Africa’s army</h2>
<p>It is remarkable how little the searchlight that has focused on state capture has rested on the Defence Force. Much attention has been given to how the executive has effectively co-opted the intelligence and prosecutorial service, as well has how the top ranks of the police have been selected for political rather than operational reasons.</p>
<p>It seems to have been assumed that South Africa’s military is simply sitting in the background, observing political events from afar. But is it? Where would its loyalties lie in the event of a major constitutional crisis?</p>
<p>The danger of the present situation is that South Africa might be about to find out.</p>
<p>Were the military to throw its weight behind Zuma the country would be in no-man’s land. Of course, there would be a massive popular reaction, with the further danger that the president himself would summon his popular cohorts to “defend the revolution”.</p>
<p>And South Africans should not assume that Zuma would be politically isolated. Those who backed Dlamini-Zuma did so to defend their present positions and capacity to use office for personal gain. If they were to rise up, the army would then be elevated to the status of defender of civil order.</p>
<p>What is certain is that in such a wholly uncertain situation the economy would spiral downwards quickly. Capital would take flight at a faster rate than ever before, employment would collapse even further, poverty would become even further entrenched.</p>
<h2>Reasons to be hopeful</h2>
<p>Is all this too extreme a scenario? Hopefully yes. There are numerous good reasons why such a fate will be averted.</p>
<p>Zuma’s control over the ANC is waning, as is his control over various state institutions, notably the National Prosecuting Authority. And the country has a checks and balances in place: there is a vigorous civil society, the judiciary has proved the Constitution’s main defence and trade unions and business remain influential.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89248/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />Even so, it remains the case that what transpires now that the ANC’s national conference is over will determine the fate and future of our democracy. South Africa is approaching rough waters, and a Jacob Zuma facing an inglorious and humiliating end to his presidency will be a Jacob Zuma at his most dangerous.</p>
<p>This article was originally published on The Conversation.</p>


The ANC has a new leader: but South Africa remains on a political precipice

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<p>In his first speech as the new leader of South Africa’s ruling party ANC Cyril Ramaphosa, says he aims to speed up expropriation of land without compensation and to stamp out corruption.</p>


New ANC leader Ramaphosa vows to fight corruption

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<p>At the 54th ANC National Conference Jackson Mthembu, NEC Member of the ANC clarifies the parties stance on spectrum.</p>


Our policy is to give Black industrialists access to spectrum – Mthembu

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<p>At the 54th ANC National Conference Enoch Godongwana, Economic Transformation Commission Chair of the ANC discusses how exposed the financial sector is to commercial agriculture.</p>


Land expropriation without compensation cannot impact financial sector negatively – Godongwana

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<p>The final list of the ANC NEC has also been announced and Joining CNBC Africa for more on this is Chris Bishop the Head of Programming at CNBC Africa.</p>


Zuma faction wins ANC NEC

ANC Conference is the forum where binding policies are created – Mthethwa

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<p>The ANC should be careful not to repeat the outcome of the 2007 Polokwane Conference, where President Mbeki was recalled. So said Fikile Mbalula, ANC NEC member, at this afternoon’s press conference at the 54th ANC National Conference.</p>


Should there be a decision to recall the President, it will be made by the NEC – Mbalula

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<p>While there are constraints in the implementation of policy, the ANC will have to prioritise. This is according to Fikile Mbalulu, Minister of Police and Chairperson of the NEC sub-committee on Organisational Renewal. C</p>


ANC has to prioritise implementation of policy – Mbalula

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<p>The ANC must always be there to resolve the problems of the people, says Fikile Mbalula, Minister of Police &#038; Chairperson of sub-committee on Organisational Renewal.</p>


ANC’s connection with the people cannot be ad hoc – Mbalula

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<p>The ANC’s Integrity Commission should be given full power and its decisions must be final, Police Minister Fikile Mbalula told the press conference at NASREC this afternoon during the final day of the 54th ANC National Conference.</p>


Integrity commission should be given full powers – Mbalula

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<p>At this afternoon’s press conference at the 54th ANC National Conference, Arts and Culture Minister Nathi Mthethwa responded to a question on how the ANC will be dealing with white monopoly capital.</p>


ANC’s approach to strategy around white monopoly capital – Mthethwa

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<p>ANC Member Fikile Mbalula this afternoon told the press conference at the 54th ANC National Conference that the composition of the Top six is not an indication that there are two centres of power in the ANC.</p>


There is one centre of power and it is the ANC itself – Mbalula

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<p>Who spends R20 000 in a bar these days? Well at least some delegates who voted in the new ANC president. The business was done at Nasrec in Johannesburg, the pleasure at Vilakazi Street. CNBC Africa’s Aviwe Mtila brings you more.</p>


Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma

Ramaphosa might be good for business but what about the man on the street?

ANC at 106: Will Zuma go?

Rumours NDZ maybe interim president of SA

Zuma is out: It’s not a matter of if; it’s a matter of when – analyst

The ANC has a new leader: but South Africa remains on a political precipice

New ANC leader Ramaphosa vows to fight corruption

Our policy is to give Black industrialists access to spectrum – Mthembu

Land expropriation without compensation cannot impact financial sector negatively – Godongwana

Zuma faction wins ANC NEC

ANC Conference is the forum where binding policies are created – Mthethwa

Should there be a decision to recall the President, it will be made by the NEC – Mbalula

ANC has to prioritise implementation of policy – Mbalula

ANC’s connection with the people cannot be ad hoc – Mbalula

Integrity commission should be given full powers – Mbalula

ANC’s approach to strategy around white monopoly capital – Mthethwa

There is one centre of power and it is the ANC itself – Mbalula

ANC conference brings brisk business to Vilakazi Street

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Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma

Ramaphosa might be good for business but what about the man on the street?

ANC at 106: Will Zuma go?

Rumours NDZ maybe interim president of SA

Zuma is out: It’s not a matter of if; it’s a matter of when – analyst

The ANC has a new leader: but South Africa remains on a political precipice

New ANC leader Ramaphosa vows to fight corruption

Our policy is to give Black industrialists access to spectrum – Mthembu

Land expropriation without compensation cannot impact financial sector negatively – Godongwana

Zuma faction wins ANC NEC

ANC Conference is the forum where binding policies are created – Mthethwa

Should there be a decision to recall the President, it will be made by the NEC – Mbalula

ANC has to prioritise implementation of policy – Mbalula

ANC’s connection with the people cannot be ad hoc – Mbalula

Integrity commission should be given full powers – Mbalula

ANC’s approach to strategy around white monopoly capital – Mthethwa

There is one centre of power and it is the ANC itself – Mbalula

ANC conference brings brisk business to Vilakazi Street

News Tips

Advertise With Us

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