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Beyond the shores: Rwandan businesses & investors

KEY POINTS



<ul><li>Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he will back interest rate increases until prices start falling back toward a healthy level.</li><li>“If that involves moving past broadly understood levels of neutral we won’t hesitate to do that,” the central bank leader told the Wall Street Journal</li></ul>



Federal Reserve Chair&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/jay-powell/">Jerome Powell</a>&nbsp;emphasized his resolve to get inflation down, saying Tuesday he will back interest rate increases until prices start falling back toward a healthy level.



“If that involves moving past broadly understood levels of neutral we won’t hesitate to do that,” the central bank leader told The Wall Street Journal&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-powell-to-take-wsj-questions-on-inflation-and-economic-outlook-11652779802" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">in a livestreamed interview</a>. “We will go until we feel we’re at a place where we can say financial conditions are in an appropriate place, we see inflation coming down.



“We’ll go to that point. There won’t be any hesitation about that,” he added.



Earlier this month, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/04/fed-raises-rates-by-half-a-percentage-point-the-biggest-hike-in-two-decades-to-fight-inflation.html">the Fed raised benchmark borrowing rates</a> by half a percentage point, the second increase of 2022 as inflation runs around a 40-year high.



Powell said following that increase that similar 50 basis point moves were likely to come at ensuing meetings so long as&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/retail-sales-april-2022-up-0point9percent-vs-1point0percent-estimate.html">economic conditions</a>&nbsp;remained similar to where they are now.



On Tuesday, he repeated his commitment to getting inflation closer to the Fed’s 2% target, and cautioned that it might not be easy and could come at the expense of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/06/job-growth-accelerated-by-428000-in-april-more-than-expected-as-jobs-picture-stays-strong.html">a 3.6% unemployment rate</a>&nbsp;that is just above the lowest level since the late 1960s.



“You’d still have a strong labor market if unemployment were to move up a few ticks,” he said. “I would say there are a number of plausible paths to have a soft as I said softish landing. Our job isn’t to handicap the odds, it’s to try to achieve that.”



The U.S. economy saw growth contract at a 1.4% pace in the first quarter of 2022, due largely to ongoing supply side constraints, spread of the omicron Covid variant and the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html">war in Ukraine</a>.



However, tighter monetary policy has added to concerns about a steeper downturn and has sparked an aggressive sell-off on Wall Street. In addition to the 75 basis points in interest rate hikes, the Fed also has halted its monthly bond-buying program, which is also known as quantitative easing, and will begin shedding some of the $9 trillion in assets it has acquired starting next month.



Powell said he still hopes the Fed can achieve its inflation goals without tanking the economy.



“You’d still have a strong labor market if unemployment were to move up a few ticks. I would say there are a number of plausible paths to have a soft as I said softish landing. Our job isn’t to handicap the odds, it’s to try to achieve that,” he said.



He added that “there could be some pain involved to restoring price stability” but said the labor market should remain strong, with low unemployment and higher wages.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Photo: via Flickr

Powell says the Fed will not hesitate to keep raising rates until inflation comes down

WASHINGTON, May 16 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;U.S. President Joe Biden has authorized the redeployment of fewer than 500 American troops into Somalia, U.S. officials said on Monday, after Donald Trump ordered their withdrawal during his presidency.



Prior to Trump&#8217;s withdrawal, the United States had about 700 troops in Somalia focused on helping local forces defeat the al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab insurgency.



&#8220;This is a repositioning of forces already in theater who have traveled in and out of Somalia on an episodic basis,&#8221; White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters. The exact number of troops was not mentioned at the briefing.



A senior administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said Biden had approved the request from U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to &#8220;enable a more effective fight against al Shabaab.&#8221;



The Pentagon said the troops would not be directly fighting in combat operations, but working to train, advise and equip Somali forces.



&#8220;Secretary&#8217;s (Austin&#8217;s) view was that the episodic engagement model was inefficient and increasingly unsustainable,&#8221; Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters.



The revamped troop presence will include fewer than 500 U.S. troops, another U.S. official said.



Al Shabaab is seeking to topple the government and establish its own rule in Somalia based on its strict interpretation of Islamic Sharia law.



The insurgent group frequently carries out bombings in Mogadishu and elsewhere as part of its war against the Horn of Africa country&#8217;s central government.



&#8220;It&#8217;s good news to have U.S. troops on the ground and counterterrorism efforts can be reinitiated,&#8221; said Colonel Ahmed Sheikh, the former commander of Somalia&#8217;s elite Danab Special Forces unit, trained by U.S. troops.



&#8220;This will be a huge boost for the new president – he has a big task ahead,&#8221; he added.



Former Somali leader Hassan Sheikh Mohamud won the presidency again in voting by parliamentarians on Sunday.



Somalia has endured conflict and clan battles with no strong central government since the fall of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991. The government has little control beyond the capital and the African Union contingent guards in an Iraq-style &#8220;Green Zone.&#8221;



While the United States did not have troops in Somalia since Trump ordered their withdrawal in December 2020, the military has occasionally carried out strikes in the country and has had troops in nearby countries.



(Reporting by Steve Holland and Idrees Ali in WashingtonAdditional rerpoting by Katharine Houreld and Jeff Mason Editing by Bill Berkrot and Matthew Lewis)

somalia-flag_Public Domain Pictures

Biden approves redeployment of under 500 ground troops to Somalia

KEY POINTS



<ul><li>The Federal Reserve increased its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, in line with market expectations.</li><li>In addition, the central bank outlined a program in which it eventually will reduce its bond holdings by $95 billion a month.</li><li>The rate move is the largest since 2000 and is in response to burgeoning inflation pressures.</li><li>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell underlined the commitment to bringing inflation down but indicated that raising rates by 75 basis points at a time “is not something the committee is actively considering.”</li></ul>



WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, the most aggressive step yet in its fight against a 40-year high in inflation.



“Inflation is much too high and we understand the hardship it is causing. We’re moving expeditiously to bring it back down,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said during a news conference, which he opened with an unusual direct address to “the American people.” He noted the burden of inflation on lower-income people, saying, “we’re strongly committed to restoring price stability.”



That likely will mean, according to the chairman’s comments, multiple 50-basis point rate hikes ahead, though likely nothing more aggressive than that.



The federal funds rate sets how much banks charge each other for short-term lending, but also is tied to a variety of adjustable-rate consumer debt.



Along with the move higher in rates, the central bank indicated it will begin reducing asset holdings on its&nbsp;<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20220428" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">$9 trillion balance sheet</a>. The Fed had been buying bonds to keep interest rates low and money flowing through the economy during the pandemic, but the surge in prices has forced a dramatic rethink in monetary policy.



Markets&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/02/fears-of-a-fed-mistake-grow-as-this-weeks-anticipated-interest-rate-hike-looms.html">were prepared for both moves</a>&nbsp;but nonetheless have been volatile throughout the year. Investors have relied on the Fed as an active partner in making sure markets function well, but the inflation surge has necessitated tightening.



Wednesday’s rate hike will push the federal funds rate to a range of 0.75%-1%, and current market pricing has the rate rising to 2.75%-3% by year’s end, according to CME Group data.



Stocks leaped higher following the announcement while Treasury yields backed off their earlier highs.



Markets now expect the central bank&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/03/the-fed-is-expected-to-raise-rates-by-a-half-point-investors-wonder-if-it-will-get-more-aggressive.html">to continue raising rates aggressively</a>&nbsp;in the coming months. Powell, said only that moves of 50 basis points “should be on the table at the next couple of meetings” but he seemed to discount the likelihood of the Fed getting more hawkish.



“Seventy-five basis points is not something the committee is actively considering,” Powell said, despite market pricing that had leaned heavily towards the Fed hiking by three-quarters of a percentage point in June.



“The American economy is very strong and well-positioned to handle tighter monetary policy,” he said, adding that he foresees a “soft or softish” landing for the economy despite tighter monetary policy.WATCH NOWVIDEO03:04A 75 basis point increase is not something we’re actively considering, says Fed Chair Powell



The plan outlined Wednesday will see the balance sheet reduction happen in phases, with the Fed allowing a capped level of proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off each month while reinvesting the rest. Starting June 1, the plan will see $30 billion of Treasurys and $17.5 billion on mortgage-backed securities roll off. After three months, the cap for Treasurys will increase to $60 billion and $35 billion for mortgages.



Those numbers were mostly in line with discussions at the last Fed meeting, as described in minutes from the session, though there were some expectations that the increase in the caps would be more gradual.



Wednesday’s statement noted that economic activity “edged down in the first quarter” but noted that “household spending and business fixed investment remained strong.” Inflation “remains elevated,” the Fed statement said.



Finally, the statement addressed the Covid outbreak in China and the government’s attempts to address the situation.



“In addition, Covid-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks,” the statement said.



“No surprises on our end,” said Collin Martin, fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab. “We’re a little bit less aggressive on our expectations than the markets are. Do think another 50 basis point increase in June seems likely. … We think inflation is close to peaking. If that shows some signs of peaking and declines later in the year, that gives the Fed a little leeway to slow down on such an aggressive pace.”



Though some Federal Open Market Committee members had pushed for bigger rate increases, Wednesday’s move received unanimous support.



The 50-basis-point increase is the biggest increase the rate-setting FOMC has instituted since May 2000. Back then, the Fed was fighting the excesses of the early dotcom era and the internet bubble. This time around, the circumstances are quite a bit different.



As the pandemic crisis hit in early 2020, the Fed slashed its benchmark funds rate to a range of 0%-0.25% and instituted an aggressive program of bond buying that more than doubled the size of its balance sheet. At the same time, Congress approved a series of bills that injected more than $5 trillion of fiscal spending into the economy.



Those policy moves were followed by clogged supply chains and surging demand as economies reopened. Inflation over a 12-month period&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/12/consumer-prices-rose-8point5percent-in-march-slightly-hotter-than-expected.html">rose 8.5% in March</a>, as gauged by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index.



Fed officials for months dismissed the inflation surge as “transitory” then had to rethink that position as the price pressures did not relent.



For the first time in more than three years, the FOMC in March&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/16/federal-reserve-meeting.html">approved a 25-basis-point increase</a>, indicating then that the funds rate could rise to just 1.9% this year. Since then, though, multiple statements from central bankers&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/05/feds-brainard-sees-balance-sheet-reduction-soon-and-at-a-rapid-pace.html">pointed to a rate well north of that</a>. Wednesday’s move marked the first time the Fed has boosted rates at consecutive meetings since June 2006.



Stocks have tumbled through this year, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average off nearly 9% and bond prices falling sharply as well. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which moves opposite price, was around 3% Wednesday, a level it hasn’t seen since late 2018.



When the Fed was last this aggressive with rate hikes, it took the funds rate to 6.5% in early 2000, but was forced to retreat just seven months later. With the combination of a recession already underway plus the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the Fed rapidly cut, eventually slashing the funds rate all the way down to 1% by mid-2003, shortly after the Iraq invasion.



Some economists worry the Fed could face the same predicament this time — failing to act on inflation when it was surging, then tightening in the face of slowing growth. GDP fell 1.4% in the first quarter, though it was held back by factors such as rising Covid cases and a slowing inventory build that are expected to ease through the year.

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Fed raises rates by half a percentage point — the biggest hike in two decades — to fight inflation

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The African Growth and Opportunity Act is set to expire in 2025 and preparations for the post- AGOA trade relations need to begin now. Since the Act began in 2000, the trade landscape on the continent has shifted significantly. Charles Robertson, Global Chief Economist at Renaissance Capital joins CNBC Africa for more.

Renaissance Capital: Why the AfCFTA

Renaissance Capital: Why the AfCFTA, AGOA won’t work without manufacturing on the continent

The United States and Kenya formally launched negotiations for a free trade agreement on 8 July 2020. With the US gearing up for presidential elections in a few months, these talks may not draw much global attention. But as&nbsp;<a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/going-solo-what-significance-us-kenya-free-trade-agreement">a prototype for evaluating the substance of future US-Africa trade</a>&nbsp;relations, a lot rides on Washington using this deal to make a bold statement of its commitment to effective North-South free trade agreements.



The US is the third most important destination for Kenyan exports after Uganda and Pakistan,&nbsp;<a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ken">accounting for 8% of its total exports</a>. Kenya exported goods worth US$ 527 million in 2018, primarily apparels, coffee and nuts. Its imports were mainly commercial aeroplanes and other spacecraft, polymers and medicaments. Kenya has a slim trade surplus that the US will probably be keen to balance.



Washington has a penchant for using free trade agreements to signal the status of partner states as regional strategic allies. Such agreements with Morocco, South Korea, Colombia and Bahrain were all intended to signal much deeper strategic alliances beyond trade.



For the European Union and China the Kenyan agreement further signals America’s intent for commercial expansion and competition in Africa. The principal objective is to secure duty free access for American industrial, apparel and agricultural goods in Africa. Its all about making American exports competitive.



US trade officials have described the Kenyan deal as a&nbsp;<a href="https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2020/march/trump-administration-notifies-congress-intent-negotiate-trade-agreement-kenya">model</a>&nbsp;for other African free trade deals. Terming Kenya a “strategic partner, regional leader and commercial hub”&nbsp;<a href="https://ke.usembassy.gov/joint-statement-between-the-united-states-and-kenya-on-the-launch-of-negotiations-towards-a-free-trade-agreement/">statements</a>from both the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and the US ambassador to Kenya Kyle McCarter highlight the seriousness with which Washington wants this deal done.



This vigour affirms President Trump’s strategy outlined by the 2018 US-Africa policy. But since the Kenyan deal is an&nbsp;<a href="https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2020/march/trump-administration-notifies-congress-intent-negotiate-trade-agreement-kenya">initiative </a>&nbsp;of President Trump, the palpable pressure to conclude agreement could be detrimental to Kenya’s interests. The pressure hampers Kenya more given the asymmetry of capacity between the two states.



Free trade agreements are protracted affairs which take more than a year to complete. The US-Morocco agreement, for instance, took 15 months. Talks with Peru (18 months) and Colombia (20 months) lasted even longer. The Kenya-EU economic partnership agreements took more than 10 years to conclude.



Additionally, there’s no guarantee that Trump will be in office come January 2021. For this reason, Kenya’s team in Washington should consider informally engaging the democrats in case the deal has to be concluded under President Biden.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Kenya’s negotiating objectives</h2>



It is my view that Kenya’s negotiations should be guided by four principal questions and objectives as follows:



<ul><li>Does the proximity of the November election in the US unduly compromise the quality of negotiations?</li><li>What are the prospects for renewal of the&nbsp;<a href="https://agoa.info/about-agoa.html">African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)</a>&nbsp;in 2025? If extended, would Kenyan exports not covered benefit from US tariff removal?</li><li>Can Kenyan negotiators defend against US pressure to liberalise industrial goods under the East African Community Sensitive List and</li><li>Can the US extend to Kenya the “qualified industrial zones” model to bolster US foreign direct investment in Kenya?</li></ul>



From a political perspective, a trade agreement makes sense. It shields Kenya from the uncertainties over the extension of the African deal and the vicissitudes of political party changes in Washington. As a trade tool, the merits of a free trade agreement depend a lot on the extension (or not) of AGOA after 2025 under President Trump or Biden.



More principally, whether democrats or Republicans win in November, the extension of the Africa market access law will depend on the extent to which sub-Saharan Africa states will be regarded as important flashpoints for US-China commercial competition in Africa.



Trump is certainly more combative in wanting to nullify China’s huge commercial advantage in Africa. But a Biden presidency would be more receptive to the appeals of the&nbsp;<a href="https://agoa.info/news/article/15634-us-house-black-caucus-to-advocate-extension-of-agoa.html">US Congress Black Caucus which champions</a>&nbsp;the unilateral extension of AGOA. Because of the uncertainty about the whims of the US presidency, it is in Kenya’s interest to concurrently lobby US democrats on the importance of this deal in case of a Biden presidency.



If AGOA is not extended without a free trade agreement, Kenya’s three biggest exports to the US –&nbsp;<a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ken">apparels, macadamia nuts and cut flowers</a>&nbsp;– would face duty increases of 5%, 0.5% and 4% respectively. This would undoubtedly negatively affect exports.



But if it is extended, and the US-Kenya agreement ratified by Congress, elimination of duties on Kenyan non-AGOA exports (mainly minerals) will not amount to much in terms of export enhancement.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Jordanian model</h2>



Constraints to Kenyan exports to the US are not primarily tariff based. From Kenya’s standpoint, therefore, these trade talks are less about tariff and trade, than they are about attracting foreign investment into Kenya. The most useful potential outcome will be the extent to which Kenya draws manufacturing foreign direct investment from the US and other states, into its economic processing zones.



To achieve this, Kenya should negotiate for liberal rules of origin requirements. Such rules should not unduly constrain investors to use only US or Kenyan inputs for Kenyan exports to qualify for the duty free entry into the US. A rules-of-origin threshold of no more than 30% value add should be the target.



As an investment vehicle, the Kenya US agreement should be modelled on the Jordanian “qualified industrial zones model” which increased bilateral trade between the two states&nbsp;<a href="https://jo.usembassy.gov/us-jordan-joint-committee-meets-in-amman-praises-7-5-percent-increase-in-jordanian-exports-to-the-united-states-in-2018/">tenfold since its inception in 2001</a>.



This model permits foreign owned companies situated in select export processing zones to qualify for duty free exports into the US market. With apparel as Kenya’s principal target export, the success of its negotiating dexterity will be judged on how well it integrates the inputs and outputs of its export processing zones. An agreement that considers all apparel exports “Kenyan” irrespective of ownership and input source for a reasonable duration should be the target.



Finally, the US will no doubt be keen on Kenya’s liberalisation of agriculture and services as part of its ambition to compete with the EU as preeminent agricultural exporters. Every country keeps a short list of goods that it is allowed to protect either for infant industry protection or security reasons. Kenya’s highly protected commodities include wheat, matches, rice and cement which can attract customs tariffs of up to 75% in the case of certain types of rice.



My view here is that Kenya should grant the US the same agricultural exports conditions as those granted to the EU under the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tralac.org/news/article/13865-epa-test-of-unity-as-kenya-breaks-away.html">Economic Partnership Agreement</a>. But at the same time, it should defend the continued protection of the “industrial” goods in the sensitive list such as cement, natural gas and most importantly worn clothing. These should be protected for purposes of the modest infant industry already in existence in production of these products. But it could end protection for some agricultural products like wheat.



If properly negotiated the agreement has the potential to rapidly enhance Kenya’s foreign industrial investment and overall export volumes. To do so, Kenya must pay more attention to the role of this agreement as an investment attraction vehicle and not just a simple tariff centred ‘traditional’ pact.

Uhuru_Kenyatta_2015

Kenya-US free trade talks are under way: what Nairobi must get right from start

KEY POINTS



<ul><li>Nigeria’s $34.6 billion Budget for 2020 was benchmarked on an oil price of $57 per barrel. It expected crude oil sales to contribute 35 percent of government revenue. The oil prices&#8217; plunge has forced the Nigerian government to review its budget. </li></ul>



 By <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/pippa-stevens/">Pippa Stevens</a><a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/@PippaStevens13" target="_blank">@PIPPASTEVENS13</a><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/eustance-huang/">and Eustance Huang</a><a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://twitter.com/EustanceHuang" target="_blank">@EUSTANCEHUANG</a> Oil prices plunged after OPEC’s failure to strike a deal with its allies regarding production cuts caused Saudi Arabia to slash its prices as it reportedly gets set to ramp up production, leading to fears of an all-out price war.



<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=@CL.1">U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude</a>&nbsp;dropped 29.48% to $29.11 per barrel as of 05:50 GMT Monday, having earlier tumbled to a low of $27.34 per barrel. International benchmark&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=@LCO.1">Brent crude</a>&nbsp;futures also plummeted 27.26% to $32.93 per barrel.



“This has turned into a scorched Earth approach by Saudi Arabia, in particular, to deal with the problem of chronic overproduction,” Again Capital’s John Kilduff said. “The Saudis are the lowest cost producer by far. There is a reckoning ahead for all other producers, especially those companies operating in the U.S shale patch.”



On Saturday, Saudi Arabia announced massive discounts to its official selling prices for April, and the nation is reportedly preparing to increase its production above the 10 million barrel per day mark, according to a Reuters report. The kingdom currently pumps 9.7 million barrels per day, but has the capacity to ramp up to 12.5 million barrels per day.<a></a>



“We believe the OPEC and Russia oil price war unequivocally started this weekend when Saudi Arabia aggressively cut the relative price at which it sells its crude by the most in at least 20 years,” Goldman Sachs analyst&nbsp;Damien Courvalin said in a note to clients Sunday. “The prognosis for the oil market is even more dire than in November 2014, when such a price war last started, as it comes to a head with the significant collapse in oil demand due to the coronavirus,” the firm added.



Goldman cut its second and third quarter Brent forecast to $30 per barrel, and said that prices could dip into the $20s.



Saudi Arabia’s price cut followed a breakdown of talks in Vienna last week. On Thursday, OPEC recommended additional production cuts of 1.5 million barrels per day starting in April and extending until the end of the year. But OPEC ally Russia rejected the additional cuts when the 14-member cartel and its allies, known as OPEC+, met on Friday.



The meeting also concluded with no directive about the production cuts that are currently in place but set to expire at the end of the month. This effectively means that nations will soon have free rein over how much they pump.



“As from 1 April we are starting to work without minding the quotas or reductions which were in place earlier,” Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told reporters Friday at the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna, adding, “but this does not mean that each country would not monitor and analyze market developments.”&nbsp;



Oil prices have already moved sharply lower this year as the coronavirus outbreak has led to softer demand for crude. A potential supply glut could pressure prices further.



“Both events – coronavirus and OPEC+ falling apart were not expected or priced into the market a month ago,” said Rebecca Babin, senior equity trader for CIBC Private Wealth Management. She said the key things to watch going forward are whether or not Saudi Arabia and Russia reach a “Hail Mary” deal, and if not, how quickly U.S. supply is shut in to support prices.



“There is still significant uncertainty, but the commodity market is not waiting around to find out if miracles can happen,” she added.



The unfolding of events is reminiscent of 2014 when Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S. competed for market share in the oil industry. As production escalated, prices plummeted. Some see prices heading back to those lows.&nbsp;



″$20 oil in 2020 is coming,” Ali Khedery, formerly Exxon’s senior Middle East advisor and now CEO of U.S.-based strategy firm Dragoman Ventures, wrote Sunday on Twitter. “Huge geopolitical implications. Timely stimulus for net consumers. Catastrophic for failed/failing petro-kleptocracies Iraq, Iran, etc &#8211; may prove existential 1-2 punch when paired with COVID19.”



But others, including Eurasia Group,&nbsp;believe that Saudi Arabia and Russia will eventually come to an agreement.&nbsp;



“The most likely outcome of the failure of the Vienna talks is a limited oil price war before the two sides agree on a new deal,” analysts led by&nbsp;Ayham Kamel said in a note to clients Sunday. The firm puts the chances of an eventual agreement at 60%.&nbsp;



Vital Knowledge founder&nbsp;Adam Crisafulli said Sunday that oil “has become a bigger problem for markets than the coronavirus,” but also said that he does not foresee prices falling to the Jan. 2016 lows.&nbsp;



“Saudi Arabia can’t tolerate an oil depression – the country’s fiscal breakeven oil prices remains very high, Saudi Aramco is now a public company, and MBS’s grip on power isn’t yet absolute. As a result, the [government] won’t be so cavalier in sending oil back into the $30s (or even lower),” he said in a note to clients Sunday.



— CNBC’s <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/michael-bloom/">Michael Bloom</a> and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/natasha-turak/">Natasha Turak</a> contributed reporting.



This article first appeared on CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/oil-plummets-30percent-as-opec-deal-failure-sparks-price-war-fears.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/oil-plummets-30percent-as-opec-deal-failure-sparks-price-war-fears.html</a> and is republished with its permission

US crude prices drop below $30 a barrel after OPEC deal failure sparks price war, oil-dependent economies left vulnerable

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The United State Consul General to Nigeria, Claire Pierangelo says having identified SMEs as the growth of the Nigerian economy, the US hopes to be able to work with entrepreneurs at that level to develop their skill set and businesses. Ms Pierangelo spoke to CNBC Africa’s Christy Cole during her courtesy visit to the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) here she rang the Closing gong.

How U.S-Nigeria relations are set to stimulate Nigerian economy

How U.S-Nigeria relations are set to stimulate Nigerian economy, develop entrepreneurial skill set

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International Monetary Fund and Ethiopian government have reached an opening agreement for a three-year, $2.9 billion financing package to support the African country’s economic reform program. The program would focus on addressing foreign exchange shortage and transitioning to a more flexible exchange rate regime, while working to strengthen oversight and management of state-owned enterprises to contain debt vulnerabilities. Zemedeneh Negatu, Global Chairman at Fairfax Africa Fund (US) joins CNBC Africa for more.

IMF seals $2.9bn financing package with Ethiopia: Here’s why this is a big game changer for the country’s economy

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Sudan&#8217;s Prime Minister, Hamdok held talks in Washington with the aim of having Sudan removed from the US list of countries that are said to sponsor terrorism. In order to be removed from the terrorism list, Sudan must meet a series of US conditions, including payments to the embassy bomb victims. Also the United States is set to name an ambassador to the country for the first time in 23 years. Analyst and Activist, Hajooj Kuka joins CNBC Africa for more.

US to reinstate ambassador to Sudan for first time in 23 years

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Today marks one year since the flagging off of the historic Nairobi to New York daily direct flight. During the launch, President Uhuru Kenyatta said the 15 hour flight to US will open up Kenya and the region to the world and boost the continent’s economic growth. To breakdown how much of an impact this flight has had thus far, Sebastian Mikosz, CEO of Kenya Airways joins CNBC Africa.

What impact has Nairobi-New York direct flights had one year on?

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Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed are set to meet in Russia to discuss a dispute over a hydropower dam that Ethiopia is building on the River Nile, which has caused a long-running diplomatic standoff. Ethiopia aims to provide electricity to homes of its 105 million citizens and Egypt wants a steady supply of water for its 98 million citizens. Global Chairman at Fairfax Africa Fund (US), Zemedeneh Negatu joins CNBC Africa for more.

Egypt, Ethiopia to hold talks over Nile dam hydropower dispute

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The Central Bank of Nigeria has reviewed upwards the minimum loan-to-deposit-ratio (LDR) for banks in the country from 60 to 65 per cent. The new directive comes just after the closure of September 30th deadline set by the regulator for banks to meet the 60 per cent loan-to-deposit-ratio. Meanwhile, oil prices steadied today although gains were capped as weak economic readings in the United States depressed global markets. Research Analyst at Financial Derivatives, Funmi Adebowale joins CNBC Africa for more.

CBN raises banks’ Loan to Deposit Ratio to 65%

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The U.S markets received attention this weekend, as the announcement that the presidency wants to stop U.S investors from investing in Chinese companies broke the news.

White House deliberates block on all U.S investments in China

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Aluminium supplier and exporter, Hulamin swung in to a first half loss, hurt by losses in its extrusion business and a drop in exports to the US. Richard Jacob, Hulamin Chief Executive Officer joins CNBC Africa for more.

Tariffs hurting the market as Hulamin’s interim deadline earnings decline 178% to R63mn

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Tomorrow will see the inauguration of the Golden Business Forum (GBF) in Kigali, Rwanda. The event is designed to be an annual high-level business platform bringing together investors from around the world to identify and facilitate partnership deals and discuss the challenges that are hampering business opportunities in Africa. The hosts, Private Sector Federation (PSF) of Rwanda, are prepared to receive hundreds of international investors from across the continent, Europe, China and the US. CEO and Spokesperson of PSF, Theoneste Ntagengerwa joins CBNC Africa for more.

How Rwanda plans to benefit from the inaugural Golden Business Forum

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa’s rand gained early on Monday in low-volume trade ahead of a shortened Christmas holiday week, as political instability in the United States curbed the dollar’s recent surge.



Stocks ended higher in trade led by resource firms.



At 1200 GMT the rand was 0.6 percent firmer at 14.5450 per dollar, compared to a close of 14.6300 on Friday in New York.



The dollar index was down 0.19 percent.



The rand, along with other emerging currencies, was hit by a wave of selling going before the weekend, with investors squaring positions and looking to offload risk holdings.



But by Monday risk demand was revived by developments in Washington, with investors fretting over a government shutdown that could continue into January and a report that President Donald Trump has discussed the possibility of firing the head of the central bank.



“A potential U.S. government shutdown, President Trump threatening to fire the Chairman of the Federal Reserve and U.S. politics in general are adding some pressure to the dollar,” said Bianca Botes of Peregrine Treasury Solutions.



Bonds closed flat, with the yield on the benchmark 2026 paper steady at 9 percent.



On the bourse, the Top-40 index rose 1.43 percent to 46,203 points, while the broader all-share was up 1.27 percent at 52,081.



AngloGold Ashanti led the blue-chip index, up 4.4 percent at 184.40 rand.



Bourse heavyweight Naspers rose 3.9 percent on the day to 2,956.30 rand.



Reporting by Mfuneko Toyana; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu

US

Beyond the shores: Rwandan businesses & investors

Powell says the Fed will not hesitate to keep raising rates until inflation comes down

Biden approves redeployment of under 500 ground troops to Somalia

Fed raises rates by half a percentage point — the biggest hike in two decades — to fight inflation

Renaissance Capital: Why the AfCFTA, AGOA won’t work without manufacturing on the continent

Kenya-US free trade talks are under way: what Nairobi must get right from start

US crude prices drop below $30 a barrel after OPEC deal failure sparks price war, oil-dependent economies left vulnerable

How U.S-Nigeria relations are set to stimulate Nigerian economy, develop entrepreneurial skill set

IMF seals $2.9bn financing package with Ethiopia: Here’s why this is a big game changer for the country’s economy

US to reinstate ambassador to Sudan for first time in 23 years

What impact has Nairobi-New York direct flights had one year on?

Egypt, Ethiopia to hold talks over Nile dam hydropower dispute

CBN raises banks’ Loan to Deposit Ratio to 65%

White House deliberates block on all U.S investments in China

Tariffs hurting the market as Hulamin’s interim deadline earnings decline 178% to R63mn

How Rwanda plans to benefit from the inaugural Golden Business Forum

South Africa’s rand gains as U.S. political instability weighs on dollar

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US

Beyond the shores: Rwandan businesses & investors

Powell says the Fed will not hesitate to keep raising rates until inflation comes down

Biden approves redeployment of under 500 ground troops to Somalia

Fed raises rates by half a percentage point — the biggest hike in two decades — to fight inflation

Renaissance Capital: Why the AfCFTA, AGOA won’t work without manufacturing on the continent

Kenya-US free trade talks are under way: what Nairobi must get right from start

US crude prices drop below $30 a barrel after OPEC deal failure sparks price war, oil-dependent economies left vulnerable

How U.S-Nigeria relations are set to stimulate Nigerian economy, develop entrepreneurial skill set

IMF seals $2.9bn financing package with Ethiopia: Here’s why this is a big game changer for the country’s economy

US to reinstate ambassador to Sudan for first time in 23 years

What impact has Nairobi-New York direct flights had one year on?

Egypt, Ethiopia to hold talks over Nile dam hydropower dispute

CBN raises banks’ Loan to Deposit Ratio to 65%

White House deliberates block on all U.S investments in China

Tariffs hurting the market as Hulamin’s interim deadline earnings decline 178% to R63mn

How Rwanda plans to benefit from the inaugural Golden Business Forum

South Africa’s rand gains as U.S. political instability weighs on dollar

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