South Africa&#8217;s new finance minister pledged on Thursday to do what he can to keep the country from a third credit downgrade to junk status, saying he would meet ratings firm Moody&#8217;s to persuade it he will stay on the path of fiscal discipline.
Malusi Gigaba, who replaced the respected Pravin Gordhan in a cabinet reshuffle that triggered credit downgrades to sub-investment by S&#038;P Global Ratings and Fitch, told local investors he would clarify the Treasury&#8217;s policy positions to Moody&#8217;s during an upcoming roadshow overseas.
&#8220;We will do all we can to avoid another downgrade and one of the ways to do that is to engage with Moody’s directly, to demonstrate our willingness to stay the course in terms of fiscal discipline and fiscal consolidation,&#8221; Gigaba told reporters after meeting investors in parliament.
But he added: &#8220;There is no silver bullet in this regard. Nothing is taken for granted and nothing is taken as a guarantee.&#8221;
Gigaba later told the national broadcaster he would tell investors attending an International Monetary Fund meeting in the United States next week that the economy was showing signs of recovery and the government would not spend money it did not have &#8220;whatever the social pressures may be&#8221;.
The cabinet reshuffle by President Jacob Zuma, who is mid-way through his second five-year term ending in 2019, has roiled domestic financial markets and battered the rand.
The opposition has called on Zuma to resign and held protests to force him out of office.
Gigaba, formerly minister of home affairs, said he had briefed Zuma on the implications of the downgrades which could hit the poor hard, as higher debt costs could lead to less money for services such as sanitation and housing. 
Inflation was also likely to rise and consumer spending decrease as essentials such as transport and food cost more, analysts said.
Gigaba said state firms such as power utility Eskom, national airline SAA, have relied on costly government bailouts.
&#8220;In our engagement with the president, we indicated that commitment to stick to the budget as presented in the national assembly in February and to ensure that we pay attention to the governance of state-owned companies,&#8221; said Gigaba.
&#8220;It is a difficult space for everybody given the fiscal constraints, the slow growth in the economy, even though our economy is expected to grow more than it has done last, but its still very slow growth not creating sufficient volumes of jobs required.&#8221;
Gigaba said a new director general for the Treasury would be appointed in May, to replace Lungisa Fuzile who resigned after the cabinet reshuffle.
(Editing by James Macharia/Jeremy Gaunt)

We will do all we can to avoid another downgrade – SA’s Gigaba

Nigeria&#8217;s military said on Thursday that it had destroyed 13 illegal refineries in the restive Niger Delta oil hub, in an operation in which two soldiers died in clashes with &#8220;sea robbers&#8221;.
Military authorities say there are hundreds of illegal refineries in the region, which process stolen crude from oil company pipelines.
The Nigerian government said last week that it plans to legalise illicit refineries as part of an attempt to bring peace to the production heartland of crude oil, but it is unclear when it will put the plan into action.
Major Abubakar Abdullahi, a military spokesman, said troops &#8220;discovered and destroyed 13 illegal refineries&#8221; on Wednesday while on patrol in the Iyalama Adama axis of Rivers state. The two soldiers were killed in the Ijawkiri general area, in Rivers state, he said.
Makeshift refineries, usually hidden in oil-soaked clearings, support tens of thousands of people locally.
Nigeria&#8217;s navy chief has said that 181 illegal refineries were destroyed last year, 748 suspects were arrested, and crude oil and diesel worth 420 billion naira ($1.3 billion) was confiscated. The military shut down around 50 bush refineries in the first few weeks of 2017.
Tensions remain in the Niger Delta where an uneasy peace is being kept as the government holds talks with local communities, including militants whose attacks cut Nigeria&#8217;s oil production by as much as a third last year.
Crude oil sales provide two-thirds of government revenue.
Africa&#8217;s largest economy fell into recession in 2016 for the first time in 25 years, largely due to low oil prices and the impact of militant attacks. 
($1 = 314.5000 naira)
(Reporting by Tife Owolabi,; writing by Alexis Akwagyiram; editing by Susan Fenton)

Nigeria’s military destroys 13 illegal oil refineries

The 300 megawatt (MW) expansion of two units at Botswana&#8217;s Morupule B coal fired power plant has been delayed due to a dispute with the contractor over an $800 million guarantee, a cabinet minister said on Wednesday.
Japan&#8217;s Marubeni and South Korea&#8217;s Posco Energy were last year awarded the contract for the expansion, but a row between them and the government over a sovereign guarantee has delayed the plant&#8217;s expansion.
The minister of energy Security and Green Technology, Sadique Kebonang, said the builders were due to start work in January but demanded the payment of a $800 million guarantee in case the loss-making Botswana Power Corporation failed to pay.
Kebonang said only parliament, which is on a recess until July, can approve such a payment.
Officials at Japan&#8217;s Marubeni and South Korea&#8217;s Posco Energy were not available to comment.
The plant would eventually generate a total of 1,200 MW when all the expansions are completed by May 2020.
The government hopes to export power to other countries in the region after the expansion is completed.
The coal-fired power station was originally built by the China National Electric Equipment Corporation (CNEEC) at a cost of $970 million but has often broken down, leading to a reliance on diesel generators and imports from South Africa.
($1 = 10.5932 pulas)
(Reporting by Brian Benza; Editing by James Macharia)

Botswana’s 300 MW power plant stalled over $800m guarantee dispute

LAGOS (Reuters) &#8211; Nigeria&#8217;s central bank said on Wednesday it offered $250 million in currency forwards, to be settled within 30 days, to airlines, fuel importers and agriculture businesses.
It also offered $100 million on the spot market for foreign travel, school and medical fees as part of efforts to boost dollar liquidity and prop up the ailing naira currency.
The central bank said forex purchase will be paid for immediately in naira after the release of bid rates. The naira closed on Wednesday at 306.10 per dollar on the official market and 410 on the black market.
The bank has intervened on the forward market in the last few weeks in an attempt to meet demand but customers with an immediate need for dollars have piled back into the black market, causing the naira to begin to weaken in that segment.
(Reporting by Oludare Mayowa and Camillus Eboh in Abuja; writing by Chijioke Ohuocha and Alexis Akwagyiram; editing by John Stonestreet)

Nigeria central bank offers $250 mln forwards to airlines, fuel importers

<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/arjun-kharpal/" rel="author">Arjun Kharpal</a> | <a href="http://twitter.com/ArjunKharpal">@ArjunKharpal</a>
<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/27/inside-adyen-the-2-billion-start-up-backed-by-mark-zuckerberg-silicon-valley-elite.html" target="_self">Adyen, the start-up that processes payments</a> for the likes of <a class="inline_quotes" href="http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/NFLX" target="_self" data-gdsid="26444" data-inline-quote-symbol="NFLX">Netflix</a>, Uber and <a class="inline_quotes" href="http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/FB" target="_self" data-gdsid="139619" data-inline-quote-symbol="FB">Facebook</a>, saw a 99 percent surge in revenues in 2016, the company announced on Wednesday.
The Dutch firm, which is valued at $2.3 billion, posted revenues of $727 million last year, up from $365 million in 2015. Adyen also recently announced that it <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/08/adyen-company-behind-facebook-and-uber-payments-reveals-huge-transaction-growth.html" target="_self">processed $90 billion worth</a> of transactions in 2016, an 80 percent year-on-year rise.
Pieter van der Does, chief executive of Adyen, said the growth has been driven by higher volumes in the U.S., a territory it has not typically had a big footprint in.
<blockquote>&#8220;Historically we were stronger in Europe now the U.S. is very strong in terms of growth. We have been expanding our footprint in Asia and Latin America. Part of the growth is down to more volume, part of it is the increase of geographical footprint,&#8221; van der Does told CNBC in an interview on Wednesday.</blockquote>
A lot of American clients who had been trusting Adyen to process their international payments gave their domestic volume to the company, the CEO added.
Selling point of sale (POS) systems – hardware such as card readers – has also boosted the company&#8217;s top line but still only accounts for &#8220;single-digit revenue&#8221; percentage, van der Does said.
Adyen is going to focus on investing in Asia and so-called &#8220;omnichannel&#8221; – serving customers both online and in-store.
The Dutch start-up has been profitable since 2011 but said that it&#8217;s not the focus this year. Van der Does also said that an initial public offering is not on the cards.
<blockquote>&#8220;Currently I think it would be extremely bad timing because we are investing so much and focusing so much on the business,&#8221; the CEO told CNBC.</blockquote>
Van der Does admitted that due to the rapid pace of growth the company has seen in past years, revenues rises in percentage times will slow down, but &#8220;absolute growth&#8221; will remain strong.

The $2.3 bn firm that processes payments for Uber and Netflix, saw 2016 revenues surge 99%

On the 12th of April 2017, the nation celebrated the birthday of President Jacob Zuma. It was also the day that the opposition parties launched a national day of action, calling on citizens to converge at Church Square in Pretoria and then march to the Union Buildings.
South Africa is a country that has institutionalised marches. It began in the early 2000s with service delivery strikes in municipalities, and grew to crime-led xenophobic attacks all over the country. The new trend is increasingly violent political marches. Vuwani caught the national attention, when a municipal demarcation dispute led to the destruction of several schools, which is deeply regrettable.
The past two years have been dominated by #FeesMustFall, which captured international attention. On the 2nd of November 2016, the DA and EFF marched against the charges that were brought by the National Prosecuting Authority against the then Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. They marched from Church Square to the Pretoria Magistrates Court.
The #ZumaMustFall protest will be represented by citizens across racial and political lines and it will be a mass mobilisation strategy to send a message to the ANC to recall President Jacob Zuma, for a plethora of reasons.
Pretoria is the seat of the Executive and the head office of the majority of government departments and State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), hence the protests come to Pretoria. There is growing trend of marches that culminate at the Union Buildings. Remember the Million Man March in 2008 against crime, and the 2011 economic freedom march of the ANC Youth League, led by Julius Malema.
The #FeesMustFall movement led their struggles to the Union Buildings, where a concession by the government for a 0% increase in fees was achieved. And after the downgrading of South Africa’s sovereign credit rating to junk status, a march led by Save SA also ended at the Union Buildings.
Marches were staged in several other cities, including Cape Town, Port Elizabeth and Durban. The groundswell of support for President Jacob to be recalled has become a national talking point.
What is of concern is that the mass mobilisation that always descends on Pretoria has a detrimental impact on certain businesses that are forced close their doors because of these marches, which are sometimes hijacked by criminals that break into and loot shops.
Business prospects for growth diminish when several days in the year are lost to strikes in Pretoria. Bus companies also did not operate into Pretoria on the 12TH April 2017, even Gautrain buses, depriving many employees of their means to get to work. Those with cars, would not dare drive into town, and the Pretoria CBD would be a no-go area.
The deepening of political contestation will mean that rolling mass action will become the order of the day, the rule rather than the exception. We live in a globalised world, where at the click of a button, any image is shared all over the world. All these strikes, marches and protests are broadcast all over the world, and they create an image of a country that is about to implode.
This does little to restore investor confidence in our country. The downgrade can be likened to the descent of prime evil onto our wallets, heralding tough times and the increase of poverty. Society will rebel as they see their standard of living decrease, and cost of living rise. Citizens are already highly indebted, with the lowest household savings rate as a percentage of GDP. Worse, the majority of Blacks have no assets. They will experience the worst impacts of the downgrade.
The reputation of South Africa as an investment destination will continue to decrease and have a negative effect on tourism arrivals. Tourists want to travel to destinations that are safe and South Africa has consistently scored low on personal safety and security according to the World Economic Forum Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report.
Tourism, the one sector that has been the perennial good news maker, will now suffer from fallout of our political challenges. Tourism has been called the ‘’new gold’’ as it attracts more foreign exchange and creates more employment than gold mining. But reputation is everything and we must be conscious that reputation is regarded as the truth.
We must seek ways to protect our tourism industry from our political contestation because peace is a pre-requisite for tourism growth. Growth in this sector creates jobs. For every eight international tourists one permanent job is created.
Unathi Sonwabile Henama teaches tourism at the Tshwane University of Technology and writes in his personal capacity.

South African tourism: Negative effects of marches and protests

Democracy has allowed the proliferation of small political parties on the African continent. Is this a retrogressive development to the very democracy we want to see thrive? Asks Teresa Chirwa-Ndanga, of The Global Communiqué.
It is encouraging that virtually all African countries have embraced democratic systems over the years. What used to hang in the balance was a ruling party’s ‘inability’ to lose elections and step down as a result. In recent years, we have seen more incumbent governments step down after losing elections. Recall: Nigeria, The Gambia, Ghana and Malawi were good examples. However, democracies have allowed the proliferation of small parties, which I argue, are failing to make a significant mark on the political scene. These ‘small’ parties offer no ideological difference and I contend that the proliferation of such political parties is a retrogressive development to the very democracy we want to see thrive.
<h3>Malawi as a Case Study </h3>
Malawi currently has close to 60 registered political parties – this is against a population of about 17 million people with approximately 7.5 million registered voters (according to the 2014 voter register). Of the 60 political parties, none actually articulates a particular ideology for which they stand.  Most of the parties are only formed after some disgruntled individual leaves a bigger political party. They are mostly formed to satisfy someone’s ego as a result of someone’s quest for power. Political parties have become a vehicle for power rather than a means to achieve political activism for the betterment of society.
With respect to Malawi’s most recent general election, in 2014, there were 11 presidential candidates. Ten of them participated in a first ever presidential debate that ended up to be a platform for them to articulate what they would do once in office, none of their views strikingly differed to each other. That begged the question: upon what basis does an electorate make a decision for whom to vote for? It appears political parties sell individual personalities.
The result in the 2014 Malawi presidential election was a clear indication that some of these small parties are better completely off the political scene or rather consolidated together. There were four major political parties: the now ruling Democratic Progressive Party, the Major Opposition Malawi Congress Party, the then ruling People’s Party,  and the United Democratic Front. The four main political parties did relatively well. There were, however, seven other political parties that got no more than one percent of the vote – of the seven only one of them managed to get a seat in parliament, with many of the presidential candidates who had also contested at parliamentary level even failing to make it to parliament. This was a clear demonstration that many of the voters did not have confidence in them.
I submit that the multiplicity of small parties defeats the whole purpose of political party pluralism; which I agree that democracies should embrace. Many of the small political parties only become active during election season; upon which time, they often times do not win any political seat.
<h3>Should Small Political Parties Be Deregistered? </h3>
I argue for ‘political discipline’. Political discipline refers to the process of deregistration of political parties when such a party does not win any seat in an election and thereafter does not engage in any political activism (before or after the election season), which is therefore of no benefit to the country to keep such a political party active. A requirement that a party should win a seat in parliament or local council would motivate political parties to invest in political activities. Parties will invest in political activism outside election cycle years.
We need to begin to question the motivation of registering a new political party that has no noticeable difference in ideologies with the already existent political parties. Malawian researchers Nixon Khembo and Eric Mcheka observed in their study that “It is easy for parties in Malawi to emerge, merge, disintegrate or form alliances and coalitions. The cost of party formation and access to electoral contest is low and the legal threshold for political parties is liberal.”
The registrar of political parties in Malawi registers parties that have shown evidence that they have 100 members who are Malawians and are of the voting age. When they meet this requirement, all they need to provide would be the party name, two copies each of the constitution, rules and manifesto of the party, the address of its office, a list of names and addresses of party leaders and office bearers signed by each, a list of names and addresses of 100 party members signed by each.
<h3>Conclusion </h3>
There may be a number of issues that need to be changed to achieve rationality in the political arena, these include: the increase in the number of members one needs to be able to register a political party, this will ensure party leaders invest in securing as many signatories as possible. There may also be a need to introduce some party registration fee (this has been controversial in other country contexts). This would show a commitment to follow through with the roles of a political party. Emphasis should also be put on the manifesto which should talk of the ideologies that particular parties wish to represent. This will ultimately ensure a competitive political party pluralist system for the benefit of the nation and electorate.
<h5>This post first appeared on <a href="http://www.theglobalcommunique.com/2017/04/malawi-caught-up-in-unhealthy-political-party-pluralism/">The Global Communiqué</a>. </h5>

Is political pluralism a threat to Malawi?

AIMS’ new centre in Rwanda offers a model many of our organisations, and many entrepreneurs, can follow. It’s an exciting endeavour creating a quantum leap for the continent. But it should also make us ask hard questions about what we deem important and what we talk about.
As soon as I touched down at Kigali International Airport, Rwanda, I could feel something phenomenal was in the air. Perhaps it was because people kept telling me that Kigali is a true African city, or perhaps it was the sheer amount of beauty of Rwanda — an African nation with its own, unique African identity — or perhaps it was the amazing innovation and technology I encountered from touchdown (free Wi-Fi on the bus, MTN tap-and-go payments, and more) right to where I was going: The African Institute of Mathematical Sciences (AIMS).
After having received an invite to attend the launch of the new AIMS in Rwanda, I was pretty excited, and I must say it is truly impressive. And best of all, it’s truly Pan-African. It inspired me in ways I didn’t imagine, but also made me ask some hard questions of what it is we prioritise in our media conversations. I left asking: why on earth are we not talking more about this sort of thing?
AIMS has done amazing work across Africa and is at the forefront of our scientific and mathematics development. Yes, we actually have a vibrant scientific side, to the surprise of too many. President Paul Kagame of Rwanda summed it up nicely when he said, “We have to move ‘beyond potential’ and create a workforce that will lead [a] real transformation for Africa. It will only be done through innovative scientific training, technical advances and breakthrough discoveries. And there is not going to be a short cut.” AIMS contributes to this by having created a network across the continent via its various centres in South Africa (initially founded in Cape Town in 2003), Senegal, Ghana, Cameroon, Tanzania, and now Rwanda. It not only educates but it also actively promotes mathematics and science in Africa in various effective ways, some of which we will cover below. It is essentially creating a pool of excellent African mathematicians and scientists who will (in turn) apply solutions to our continent’s challenges. Yes, many of them actually stay here.
It’s doing this in such unique ways that I think can speak to just about every business, entrepreneur, and organisation in Africa. It is actively addressing challenges such as the brain drain, gender equality, cost barriers, and creating ecosystems. Let me elaborate:
<ol>
<li>It has a huge focus on gender equality. Maths and science are notoriously well known for having a small female workforce. But up to 30 percent of AIMS’ graduates are now female. It truly makes an effort. For example, if a woman is pregnant, AIMS has a saying that her body may be pregnant but her brain isn’t, meaning she can continue studying and working. They make sure that she is well supported, provided antenatal care, and they even set up homes on the campus for family members to help take care of the baby while she is still studying. In line with its high focus on gender equality, AIMS has also just elected its first female research chair, Dr Gisele Mophou. It’s amazing to see a female mathematician and scientist at this level.</li>
</ol>
<ol start="2">
<li>Its Next-Einstein Initiative keeps our brains here. It plans to see 15 research centres established in Africa (it currently has three). In addition to Mophou, the research chairs include the likes of Prof. Mouhamed Moustapha Fall, whose credentials and work has been internationally recognised (some years ago he was being dubbed the ‘next Einstein’ in popular, international media. I wrote about him in my book Disrupting Africa where he is using mathematics to help curb over-fishing). He forms part of the Next-Einstein Forum (NEF) fellows, which is doing groundbreaking work in the field of maths and science here in Africa. The Next-Einstein Initiative, however, also plugs the brain drain by partnering with the Canadian government, the German government, and the U.K. as well as other institutions, so that the research initiatives have access to resources that keeps them on the continent.</li>
</ol>
Typically, what happens with people like Fall is they are quickly snapped up by the likes of Harvard and Oxford, and to be honest, with few opportunities in Africa where you can grow in the mathematics and science fields, what else would you do? However, AIMS’ model keeps them here and even helps integrate scientists and mathematicians into other forms of work, where you might not expect to find these sorts of people (more on that below). It’s not just about funding them in terms of a salary but it gives them access to resources, provides collaboration between universities across the world, creates an international network of people in similar fields, and keeps the research thriving.
Dr. Rosita Yocgo, Research Manager at AIMS, says this means their graduates and research chairs get to interact with the best across the world and don’t really feel the barrier between being overseas and being here. “The more research chairs we can create the more we will be able to attract researchers that have already gone and are working in the diaspora, and be able to convince them to come back to Africa because they will have the same opportunities,” she says.
This last point is key. Not only are they looking to plug the brain drain, but also reverse it. I think that is hugely exciting.
<ol start="3">
<li>It is focusing on the future &#8211; quantum science. The Rwanda launch coincided with the launch of AIMS’ Quantum Leap Africa Initiative, where it will (for the first time) create an environment that focuses on quantum science, bringing a new dimension to the ecosystem it has been developing for quite some time.</li>
</ol>
<ol start="4">
<li>It finds creative ways to stimulate a new ecosystem. I’ve spoken a great deal about a new technological ecosystem for Africa, and AIMS seems to have a very similar vision through what it’s doing. This launch in Rwanda is the first time AIMS is formalising the ecosystem it has been developing &#8211; an ecosystem within the science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) fields. By putting learners from all these fields together in one network, they share resources, ideas, and creativity. In times past many of these fields worked in isolation but it’s becoming increasingly clear that these fields now intersect, and so the people working within them and studying them should too. At the launch, I could feel the excitement in the air that this was a ground-breaking event; a paradigm shift of sorts with regards to where the future is going.</li>
</ol>
<ol start="5">
<li>It has a 24-hour learning environment. Lecturers and learners stay on campus, even eating together. This model is producing amazing fruit. It’s not just data that people are dealing with but the establishment of relationships is key, and immersing people in the world 24/7 has a way of making it truly alive rather than just something in a textbook. It’s worth adding that the lecturers at AIMS have come from the likes of Oxford, Harvard, and other amazing institutions across the world &#8211; meaning students have easy, relational access to these bright minds who have pioneered in their fields.</li>
</ol>
<ol start="6">
<li>It actively creates unique opportunity and work for learners. Rather than giving them tuition and them sending them off into the sunset, AIMS actively works at placing learners in key positions. “We’ve done this really well,” says Mimi Kalinda, Director of Communications at AIMS. “Usually, students doing PhD’s and Masters in the fields of science and mathematics end up in academia. But we believe the mathematical sciences are applicable to industry and policy-making. Mathematics can be applied to agriculture, energy, food shortage, and so on. So we have a focused programme where we find opportunities for our graduates in industries and/or policy-making, so that not all of them end up in academia. Some obviously do but through this initiative, we want to ensure that we can open up their options and viewpoints on how they contribute to the continent.”</li>
</ol>
<ol start="7">
<li>Its tuition is free. This blew my mind. Students go through an 18-month programme that is free. “If you’re a really bright student you don’t need to have cost as a barrier,” says Mimi Kalinda. “It’s obviously a stringent and rigorous process to get in, but once you’re in you get your Masters degree for free.” Accommodation is also free.</li>
</ol>
As I was boarding the plane heading back to South Africa, I got the feeling that AIMS presents a very tangible and viable business model that other organisations and entrepreneurs should model. Think of what we could do if we created ecosystems in various fields and innovation like AIMS has done. Think what we could do if we could find ways to address the cost barriers more effectively. Think about what we could do if we could create environments where people have easy access to experts and people who are pioneering in their field. Think what we could achieve if we all, like AIMS, thought Pan-African from the beginning, making that a central focus.
But I also had a lingering feeling that something else needs to be stated, primarily in the form of questions:
Firstly, why is the media not talking about this amazing work, and showcasing the research and amazing students coming out of this institution all over Africa? Why is it that we’re just so silent?
Secondly, why is there not more partnering going on? My own work in innovation highlights that there is a tremendous amount to be gained by partnering via funding and expertise and networking. Surely there should be more of this sort of thing going on?
AIMS is truly shaping the future of our continent &#8211; and in ways I never expected. It’s making a huge impact and I, for one, am excited. But I think we all have a lot of work to do &#8211; and much of it starts with our thinking.

AIMS takes Africa on a quantum leap into science

Facebook is responding to the challenge from <a class="inline_quotes" href="http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/SNAP" target="_self" data-gdsid="163704" data-inline-quote-symbol="SNAP">Snap</a> in the classic way that tech companies try to face new competitors — by <a class="inline_asset" title="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/28/facebook-camera-stories-disappearing-messages-ape-snapchat.html" href="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/28/facebook-camera-stories-disappearing-messages-ape-snapchat.html" target="_self">duplicating every core feature</a> that made Snap popular, and then trying to crush it with distribution and marketing.
According to a story published Tuesday in <a class="inline_asset" title="https://www.theinformation.com/inside-the-war-between-facebook-and-snap" href="https://www.theinformation.com/inside-the-war-between-facebook-and-snap" target="_self">The Information</a> (subscription required), Facebook created a &#8220;Teens Team&#8221; to figure out how to grab teenagers back from Snapchat, and has been up front about its tactics within the company: The internal mantra among some groups is &#8220;don&#8217;t be too proud to copy.&#8221;
Unfortunately for <a class="inline_quotes" href="http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/FB" target="_self" data-gdsid="139619" data-inline-quote-symbol="FB">Facebook</a>, the track record for this strategy is poor.
<div id="inline_movable_ad"></div>
Flash back to the early 2000s, when <a class="inline_quotes" href="http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/MSFT" target="_self" data-gdsid="25619" data-inline-quote-symbol="MSFT">Microsoft</a> was the undisputed king of the tech industry, with two unassailable monopolies — operating systems and productivity apps for personal computers.
It faced a lot of competitors, but the one that scared it the most was <a class="inline_quotes" href="http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/GOOGL" target="_self" data-gdsid="19004" data-inline-quote-symbol="GOOGL">Google</a>, which was in a completely different business.
Google didn&#8217;t start by creating alternatives to Windows and Office, although it did so later. Instead, it created a suite of online services — first search, followed by email and maps — that threatened the entire purpose of a personal computer. Why rely on Microsoft software running locally when you could get so much done with web apps?
Microsoft&#8217;s response? Trying to build the exact same service that made Google famous — a search engine, first known as MSN Search, later rebranded to Bing.
Eleven years later, Bing is a small minority player in search, with less than 10 percent market share on the desktop and less than 1 percent in mobile, according to <a class="inline_asset" title="https://www.netmarketshare.com/" href="https://www.netmarketshare.com/" target="_self">NetMarketShare</a>. Google dominates with almost 80 percent share on the desktop and well over 90 percent in mobile. &#8220;Google&#8221; has become a verb. Nobody &#8220;Bings&#8221; anything.
Bolstered by the massive margins in search advertising, Google has moved farther and farther into Microsoft&#8217;s core territory, adding a massively successful mobile operating system (Android), web browser (Chrome), online productivity apps (Google for Work) and an increasingly robust cloud computing business. It also surpassed Microsoft in market cap for the first time <a class="inline_asset" title="http://mashable.com/2012/10/01/google-market-cap-passes-microsoft/" href="http://mashable.com/2012/10/01/google-market-cap-passes-microsoft/" target="_self">in 2012</a>, and remains ahead today.
Google faced its own Bing moment in 2011, when it faced a challenge from then-upstart Facebook. The social network didn&#8217;t threaten Google by building a better search engine. It did so by creating an entirely different online service, based around social networking and real identities, that drew people&#8217;s attention away from search and other Google properties. As people spent more and more time on Facebook, advertisers followed.
Google&#8217;s response? To launch a competing social network based on real identities called Google+. It was just as successful as Bing — which is to say, not successful at all.
Facebook may still win. After all, Microsoft used this playbook very effectively in the 1990s to eliminate the threat posed by Netscape Navigator — it built a better browser, then shipped it with Windows. It dominated web browsing for almost a decade (until Google came along with Chrome and <a class="inline_quotes" href="http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/AAPL" target="_self" data-gdsid="8016" data-inline-quote-symbol="AAPL">Apple</a>&#8216;s iPhone introduced the concept of effective mobile web browsing).
But Microsoft in the 1990s had an effective monopoly on personal computing platforms with Windows. If you wanted to go online, you had to go out of your way not to use Windows. The same is not true for Facebook — there are many ways to communicate and share information in real time with friends, including text messaging platforms like SMS and Apple&#8217;s iMessage, and competing social networks like Twitter and — yes — Snapchat.
Facebook will have to do more to regain teens&#8217; attention than simply duplicating every feature that made Snapchat popular.
Disclsoure: CNBC parent NBCUniversal is an investor in Snap.

Facebook has reached its Microsoft Bing moment, and history shows the results won’t be pretty

Where is South Africa going and what does it mean for markets?

Mali&#8217;s President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita announced a new government on Tuesday stocked with loyalists seen as helping him prepare for a re-election bid next year.
The government, announced in a presidential decree, includes 10 new ministers and 25 holdovers from the previous cabinet.
Tieman Hubert Coulibaly, a former defence minister and close Keita ally, was handed the crucial post of minister of territorial administration, charged with organising presidential and parliamentary elections late next year.
The shakeup follows Keita&#8217;s nomination at the weekend of Adboulaye Idrissa Maiga, another close ally and the defence minister in the previous government, as prime minister.
Mali&#8217;s government is struggling to contain militancy in its north, where rival tribal militias frequently clash and Islamist groups launch attacks on civilians, Malian soldiers, U.N. peacekeepers and French forces there.
Islamist fighters, some linked to al Qaeda, seized northern Mali in 2012 before being driven out of major cities and towns by a French-led military intervention a year later.
Tiena Coulibaly, ambassador to the United States, was named the new defence minister.
(Reporting by Adama Diarra; Writing by Aaron Ross; Editing by Andrew Roche)

Mali President Keita names loyalist cabinet ahead of 2018 elections

By Tiisetso Motsoeneng
Barclays&#8217; plan to sell its African business and pull out of the continent are being hindered by South Africa&#8217;s political upheaval and credit-rating downgrades, according to banking sources and fund managers.
The British bank gave itself 2-3 years to sell its controlling stake in Johannesburg-based Barclays Africa when it announced the plan in early 2016, and sold 12 percent last May in an &#8220;accelerated bookbuild&#8221; &#8211; a share sale held over a short period of time.
It had been planning another accelerated bookbuild in the last two weeks but pushed it back because of concerns over investor appetite due to political and economic uncertainty in South Africa, according to a banking source familiar with the plans.
The source, who asked not to be named as they are not authorised to speak publicly, did not say when the deal might now take place.
A spokesman for Barclays in London declined to comment.
South Africa has been mired in business uncertainty since late last year when the ruling African National Congress (ANC) pledged to radically transform the economy following losses in local elections that were partly caused by anger over deep inequality that persists more than two decades after apartheid.
It said it would redistribute the wealth of the country to the black majority, but has not outlined how it plans to do so.
Investor unease increased significantly two weeks ago with the sacking of respected finance minister Pravin Gordhan which led to S&amp;P Global Ratings cutting the credit rating of South Africa and its banks to junk.
Fitch also pushed Pretoria&#8217;s debt into junk territory and is expected to also downgrade local banks in the coming days because their large exposure to sovereign debt closely links their credit profile to that of the government.
The downgrades have heightened the risk of a prolonged economic stagnation and rattled investor confidence in banks, whose performance is closely linked to the economy, wiping out more than 132 billion rand ($9.5 billion) from their market value in two weeks.
The pool of potential buyers to which Barclays&#8217; can sell shares in its African business to is also shrinking, according to bankers, because the mandates of some institutional investors, including some pension funds, do not allow them to hold an asset that&#8217;s sliding on credit ratings.
<blockquote>&#8220;Barclays Plc have to make a tough call – go ahead and sell Barclays Africa at a low enough price that will attract investors or wait, possibly a few years, until the situation has stabilised,&#8221; said Kokkie Kooyman, portfolio manager at Dekker Capital in Cape Town.</blockquote>
&#8216;PAYING PRICE&#8217;
The British bank said early last year that it planned to reduce its 62 percent stake in its African business to below 20 percent by 2019 as part of its plan to exit Africa to focus on the United States and Britain.
As well as hindering its global strategy, delays in the sale timetable could throw up regulatory problems.
Barclays is partly relying on funds raised from the stake sale to meet capital requirements that were identified as a concern by the Bank of England in a November &#8220;stress test&#8221; aimed at gauging its ability to withstand financial shocks.
The lender faces the annual test again late this year, and the British regulator could ask it to submit plans to raise extra capital if it has not met the requirements.
Barclays is increasingly looking at selling its remaining 50 percent stake in chunks because it is struggling to find one strategic buyer that will satisfy South African regulators, sources have previously said.
Barclays Africa earns more than 80 percent of its revenue in South Africa, but also operates in nine other including Kenya, Ghana, Botswana and Mozambique.
It has been hit hard by the economic uncertainty and credit downgrades in South Africa, along with domestic peers Standard Bank, Nedbank and FirstRand. They are heavily dependent on wholesale funding sources such as bonds, whose costs have surged following the downgrades, and exposed to the effects of economic problems such as rising unemployment.
South Africa&#8217;s &#8220;top four&#8221; banks have shed between 7 and 13 percent over the past two weeks.
Faced with possibility of losing more supporters in the 2019 national elections, the ANC party has pledged to overhaul the economy, with the central plank being the redistribution of wealth, but has not disclosed details of its plans.
The policy is aimed at winning back core voters in a country where black people make up 80 percent of the 54 million population, yet the lion&#8217;s share of the economy in terms of ownership of land and companies remains in the hands of white people, who account for around 8 percent of the population.
<blockquote>&#8220;Banks are paying the price for political uncertainty that we&#8217;ve seen in the country over the past two weeks,&#8221; said Ron Klipin, a fund manager at Cratos Capital in Johannesburg.
&#8220;As an investor, when you hear words like &#8216;radical economic transformation&#8217;, it creates some uncertainty in terms of the economic policy, in terms of further downgrades and the cost of funding for banks.&#8221;</blockquote>
($1 = 13.8876 rand)
(Additional reporting by Lawrence White in London; Editing by Pravin Char)

South African tumult hinders Barclays’ exit from continent

<div class="storify"><iframe loading="lazy" src="//storify.com/cnbcafrica/live-oppositionmarch/embed?border=false" width="100%" height="750" frameborder="no"></iframe><script src="//storify.com/cnbcafrica/live-oppositionmarch.js?border=false"></script><noscript>[<a href="//storify.com/cnbcafrica/live-oppositionmarch" target="_blank">View the story &#8220;LIVE: #OppositionMarch protesting for SA President Zuma to step down&#8221; on Storify</a>]</noscript></div>

LIVE: National #OppositionMarch protest for SA President Zuma to step down

By <a href="http://www.reuters.com/journalists/stephanie-nebehay">Stephanie Nebehay</a> | GENEVA
The risk of mass starvation in four countries &#8211; northeast Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen &#8211; is rising rapidly due to drought and conflict, the U.N. refugee agency said on Tuesday.
About 20 million people live in hard-hit areas where harvests have failed and acute malnutrition rates are increasing, particularly among children, it said.
In South Sudan, where the United Nations declared famine in some areas in February, &#8220;a further 1 million people are now on the brink of famine&#8221;, UNHCR spokesman Adrian Edwards said.
&#8220;We are raising our alarm level further by today warning that the risk of mass deaths from starvation among populations in the Horn of Africa, Yemen and Nigeria is growing,&#8221; Edwards told a news briefing.
&#8220;This really is an absolutely critical situation that is rapidly unfolding across a large swathe of Africa from west to east,&#8221; he said.
People are on the run within their countries and greater numbers of South Sudanese refugees are fleeing to Sudan and Uganda, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said.
A preventable catastrophe, possibly worse than that of 2011 when 260,000 people died of famine in the Horn of Africa, half of them children, &#8220;is fast becoming an inevitability&#8221;, Edwards said.
TOO LATE
&#8220;Always the problem that we have with humanitarian crises in sub-Saharan Africa is that they tend to get overlooked until things are too late,&#8221; he said. &#8220;A repeat must be avoided at all costs.&#8221;
&#8220;There&#8217;s acute malnutrition, very high rates, if you don&#8217;t help people with worsening rates of malnutrition, people die.&#8221;
Seven million people in northeast Nigeria and the Lake Chad basin are suffering from food insecurity, Edwards said.
Food security in 4 countries is expected to continue to deteriorate until at least mid-year, he said.
UNHCR is scaling up its operations but has a funding shortfall, with some country programmes only funded at between 3 and 11 percent, he said.
Overall the United Nations has appealed for $4.4 billion for the four countries but has received less than $984 million to date, Jens Laerke of the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said.
In northeast Nigeria, especially Borno state, aid workers had &#8220;almost zero access&#8221; a year ago, due to Boko Haram militants, Laerke said.
&#8220;Now that access is opening up. That is one of the reasons why the numbers have grown. Because as we have pushed into these areas we have simply discovered more and more need of an extreme nature including extreme food insecurity so that there is a risk of famine,&#8221; he said.
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) warned in late March that the world had three to four months to stop starvation in the four countries.
David Hermann, ICRC operations coordinator for Somalia, told the briefing: &#8220;If it doesn&#8217;t happen now, there will be no escaping a situation that this country already experienced a few years ago, meaning probably people are going to die from starvation and disease.&#8221;
(Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay; Editing by Jeremy Gaunt and Janet Lawrence)

Risk of mass starvation rising rapidly in Africa, Yemen – U.N

Conventional wisdom tells us that good political societies are built on the principles of constitutionalism. This entails upholding the <a href="http://www.blackwellreference.com/public/tocnode?id=g9781405136532_chunk_g978140513653223">rule of law</a> and <a href="http://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/vile-constitutionalism-and-the-separation-of-powers">separation of powers</a>. This is to ensure an <a href="http://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007%2F978-94-007-0753-5_3064">even distribution of power</a> where a society is “<a href="https://www.lawteacher.net/free-law-essays/administrative-law/constitutionalism-good-governance-a-dangerous-law-essays.php">built on principles of law, not men</a>”.
In the 1990s many African states <a href="http://www.researchgate.net/publication/265493847_Constitutional_Reforms_and_Constitutionalism_in_Africa_Reflections_on_Some_Current_Challenges_and_Future_Prospects">reinvented their constitutions</a> to build good political societies. They moved away from one-party authoritarian states to embrace a constitutional political order and representative democracy. They also enacted two-term presidential limits. This was, as Charles Fombad <a href="http://www.buffalolawreview.org/past_issues/59_4/Fombad.pdf">tells us</a>
a clear recognition of the need for radical changes … In some cases, it meant a total break with a dreadful past … but in most cases it meant recognising that a constitutional framework built around the one party system that had bred authoritarian and dictatorial rule was a recipe for political instability and economic decline.
But the limitations on presidential terms have not entirely quashed a culture of entitlement to rule. Glimpses of this culture persist.
This is evident in what is now referred to as the “<a href="http://presidential-power.com/?p=4874">third term tragedy</a>” or the “<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/09/16/heres-how-african-leaders-stage-constitutional-coups-they-tweak-the-constitution-to-stay-in-power/">constitutional coup</a>”. This is when African presidents extend their tenure in office, effectively becoming “president for life”, changing constitutions to do so. Increasingly, this is met with civic resistance.
Burundi, Rwanda, the Congo and Burkina Faso are examples of where this has happened.
Roots of constitutionalism
Constitutionalism found its roots in <a href="http://www.sophia-project.org/uploads/1/3/9/5/13955288/elahi_socialcontract.pdf">social contract theory</a>, which was penned by <a href="http://fee.org/articles/john-locke-natural-rights-to-life-liberty-and-property/">John Locke</a> among others.
The basic argument is that humans have inalienable and natural rights to life, freedom and estate. And for us to exercise these rights, we create a political society of consent where constitutional principles reign supreme. Thus, as <a href="http://www.sophia-project.org/uploads/1/3/9/5/13955288/elahi_socialcontract.pdf">Manzoor Elahi</a> reminds us:
According to Locke, the purpose of the government and law is to uphold and protect the natural rights of men. So long as the government fulfils this purpose, the laws given by it are valid and binding, but when it ceases to fulfil it, then the laws would not have validity and the government can be thrown out of power.
This interpretation of the purpose of government also informs the <a href="http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/good-governance.pdf">principles of good governance</a>. These are transparency, responsibility, accountability, participation, responsiveness, and respecting the rule of law. The social contract between those who govern and those who are governed is founded on this <a href="http://www.ohchr.org/EN/Issues/Development/GoodGovernance/Pages/GoodGovernanceIndex.aspx">rights-based approach</a> to governance. This means that leaders govern at the pleasure of the people, and do not rule with sovereign license at the cost of constitutional rules. The well-being and rights of the people must be the central concern of those who govern.
Good governance entails playing by the rules. It requires accepting <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/gambia-jammeh-rejects-result-presidential-election-161210034606068">electoral defeat</a> if the people willed it so.
Cases of constitutional coups
There have been some classic examples of “constitutional coups” in recent years. These include:
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.africanleadershipcentre.org/index.php/2014-10-22-15-44-06/alc-newsletters/sept2015-issue/385-the-new-assault-on-presidential-term-limits-in-africa-focus-on-burundi">Burundi</a>, where President Pierre Nkurunziza’s machinations for a third term in 2015 led to political instability and a <a href="http://europe.newsweek.com/burundi-army-chief-says-coup-attempt-failed-327288">failed military coup</a>. He subsequently emerged victorious in an election marred by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/24/burundi-pierre-nkurunziza-wins-third-term-disputed-election">violence and intimidation</a> in 2015.</li>
<li>Congo: In 2015, President Denis Sassou Nguesso claimed that the people <a href="http://www.voanews.com/a/congo-brazzaville-opposition-to-protest-president-third-term-bid/2976658.html">wanted him</a> to extend his 32-year stay in power and announced a referendum to change the constitution to allow him to contest the election. This was met with mass protest, with people proclaiming that the “<a href="http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKCN0RS0LK20150928">Congo does not belong to Nguesso</a>”. In 2016 he won <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/03/congo-president-denis-sassou-nguesso-wins-election-160324040212900.html">at the polls</a> amid tight security measures and a communications black out.</li>
<li><a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2014-11-03-an-undignified-exit-the-fall-of-burkina-fasos-compaore">Burkina Faso’s Blaise Compaoré</a> was forced to flee following widespread protests against his bid to extend his 27-year rule in 2014.</li>
<li>Rwanda’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/01/rwanda-paul-kagame-third-term-office-constitutional-changes">President Paul Kagame</a> will run for a third term this year. This after the constitutional was amended to allow him another term, following a referendum to that effect. He may be in power until <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/20/rwanda-vote-gives-president-paul-kagame-extended-powers">2034</a>.</li>
</ul>
In 2015 West African states took a progressive step with a proposal to ban “constitutional coups” by limiting presidents to only two terms. But the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-32808685">idea was abandoned</a> as some states in the region did not support it. This happened despite the fact that research shows Africa’s citizens largely <a href="http://afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/publications/Dispatches/ab_r6_dispatchno30.pdf">support limiting presidential terms</a>.
The African Union (AU) committed to a <a href="http://theconversation.com/why-zumas-african-way-is-at-odds-with-the-african-unions-vision-57589">democratic social contract</a> with <a href="http://archive.au.int/assets/images/agenda2063.pdf">Agenda 2063</a>. There is a formal promise to abide by the will of the people and to respect the rule of law. The problem rather, as <a href="http://www.buffalolawreview.org/past_issues/59_4/Fombad.pdf">Charles Fombad concludes</a>, is that
In many countries, the problems were not caused by the absence of constitutions. Rather it was the ease with which African leaders had rendered constitutions dysfunctional by regularly ignoring their provisions or amending them when it suited their convenience.
Some highlight the lack of effective opposition in Africa. But the problem also relates to views about governance and the rules. It seems the rules are made to the broken.
The AU has to be commended for taking a firm stance against regime change through <a href="https://www.files/ethz.ch/isn/105906/P197.pdf">military coup</a>. It has suspended countries for “<a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/african-union-suspends-burkina-faso-military-coup-150919073352770.html">unconstitutional regime change</a>”. But it has not been as effective in its opposition to dealing with the problem of extended presidential terms. This could be due to the <a href="http://www.saiia.org.za/policy-briefings/presidential-term-limits-a-new-african-foreign-policy-challenge">sovereignty principle</a>, which makes African states reluctant to interfere in others’ affairs.
But the problem of leaders clinging to power is only one manifestation of a lack of respect for constitutional rules in Africa. Others include the fact that opposition political parties are often <a href="http://www.hrw.org/news/2010/02/10/rwanda-end-attacks-opposition-parties">harassed</a> and their leaders <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-uganda-opposition-leader-under-house-arrest-amid-tensions-2016-2">locked up</a>. They are also painted as illegitimate proxies for harmful <a href="http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-10-06-icg-confrontation-in-zimbabwe-turns-increasingly-violent/#.WIia6rF7GqA">foreign “third forces”</a> seeking regime change.
Gambia shows democracy advancing, but…
Many have applauded the Economic Community of West Africa <a href="http://www.ecowas.int/">(Ecowas)</a> for the role it played ensuring a peaceful transition after the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38271480">Gambian election</a>.
After President Yahya Jammeh rejected his loss, citing “<a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/gambia-jammeh-rejects-result-presidential-election-161210034606068">foreign interference</a>”, it looked like a replay of a now all-too-familiar script, wherein a leader clings on to power against the popular will.
But regional leaders had other ideas. With a <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/01/gambia-yahya-jammeh-final-deadline-step-170120044922953.html">not-so gentle push</a> from them, Jammeh eventually <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/01/jammeh-arrives-banjul-airport-stepping-170121210246506.html">accepted the electoral outcome</a> and vacated the plush presidential chair.
Yes, we may see the Gambian story as an <a href="http://europe.newsweek.com/gambia-election-result-sign-democracy-advancing-africa-528532?rm=eu">advancement for democracy</a> in Africa. And yes, there are many lessons the Southern African Development Community (SADC) can learn from Ecowas in <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-southern-africa-can-learn-from-west-africa-about-dealing-with-despots-71722">dealing decisively with despots</a>.
But the temporary Gambian crisis also points to a deeper governance problem in Africa: leadership attitudes towards “governance”. Many African leaders have yet to appreciate that constitutional rules matter. And while military coups are increasingly “<a href="http://newafricanmagazine.com/why-are-military-coups-going-out-of-fashion-in-africa">out of fashion</a>”, people on the continent need to pay attention to the “softer” methods used to entrench the “president-for-life syndrome” which threaten the continent’s democratic gains.
More importantly, given a commitment to good governance through <a href="http://au.int/en2/agenda2063">Agenda 2063</a>, African leaders must do more than show respect for the rules. They must also realise that they need to govern – not rule – at the pleasure of the people.
This would speak to building a culture of accountability and good governance through a change in mindset – instead of seeing their job as ruling the people leaders would see their role as governing the people. It would also entail vacating political office when your time is up.

Africa faces a new threat to democracy: the ‘constitutional coup’

<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/gemma-acton/" rel="author">Gemma Acton</a> | <a href="http://twitter.com/GemmaActon">@GemmaActon</a>
Oil prices traded lower in the early European session following the longest positive streak of the year for the commodity as analysts remained divided on where the price will head from here.
<a class="inline_asset" href="http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/lcocv1" target="_self" data-nodeid="100583837">Brent</a> had slipped back to trade at $55.87 at 10am London time after Monday&#8217;s close cemented a six-day streak which saw prices up a cumulative 6 percent. Meanwhile, <a class="inline_asset" href="http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1" target="_self" data-nodeid="100279044">WTI</a> was hovering a quarter of a percent lower for the session at $52.93, after notching up a fifth positive close for cumulative gains of 5.7 percent. So far in 2017, Brent is trading around 1.5 percent lower to Monday&#8217;s close while WTI has lost 1.3 percent this year over the same period.
Among the bears, Stephen Jones, chief investment officer (CIO) at Kames Capital says that oil prices are unlikely to rebound significantly from here given a supply glut and increasingly sophisticated oil extraction methods.
Noting that spiking inventories and a big pullback in hedge funds&#8217; bullish bets are seen by many as short-term factors set to unwind, Jones says instead that the drastic reshaping of both supply and dynamics that has taken place will limit potential oil price rises.
<blockquote>&#8220;Having been through their own recession, U.S. exploration and production companies – and those focused on shale – are now able to operate in a lower oil price environment,&#8221; said Jones, in a note to clients on Monday.
&#8220;That means the structural price of being able to get new oil supplies out of the ground has fallen, mainly thanks to significant improvements in the technical ability to produce oil, and therefore the price will remain lower than most people think,&#8221; added the CIO of the British investment management business.</blockquote>
Turning to demand, currently registering 97.89 million barrels a day, Jones notes that it is failing to keep up with supply levels of 98.29 million barrels a day.
Taking a different view, Martin King, commodity analyst at GMP First Energy says his team has become notably more bullish in recent weeks on oil&#8217;s path ahead, driven primarily by OPEC compliance results and its expectations for material growth coming through refinery runs.
Talking specifics, King highlighted in a client note on Monday that OPEC compliance has reduced daily production by around 1 million barrels a day since December while he sees refinery runs heading higher by around 2 million barrels a day over the next couple of months.
Furthermore, global oil inventories are also falling and U.S. inventories are not far behind, claim the GMP First Energy team, pointing to the example of Iran where the country&#8217;s floating storage built during the years of embargo has been entirely drained in 6 to 9 months.
Yet, a rebound in prices may not be imminent, the team admits.
<blockquote>&#8220;It could still take a few more weekly reports of convincing inventory draws before prices work their way back to the recent highs seen in early March. Breaking out above those highs will require clear indications of significant rapid drawdowns in U.S. crude oil inventories. Still waiting for that,&#8221; concludes the research.</blockquote>
Market participants are now focused on whether OPEC and its non-OPEC partners sign on to renew their agreement capping production in late May, a deal which has registered compliance figures north of 90 percent in recent months.
Yet despite the concerted efforts by certain key signatories, such as Saudi Arabia, to adhere to the production limits, the rate of U.S. shale production has offset the supportive effect on prices, said Michelle McGrade, CIO at TD Direct Investing on CNBC&#8217;s Squawk Box on Tuesday.
<blockquote>&#8220;There are some conflicting forces out there. There&#8217;s OPEC and there&#8217;s U.S. shale gas and oil. U.S. is making shale oil like crazy and therefore the supply is greater than demand,&#8221; McGrade opined.</blockquote>
Furthermore, beyond looking at supply and demand fundamentals, the ability for producing countries and large oil companies to balance their books is a critical factor to consider.
<blockquote>&#8220;This is the worrying thing…Not only these countries but also our oil majors as well. They need oil around…somewhere between $65 and $75 a barrel and once they get there that whole industry will relax &#8211; but it&#8217;s just not getting there,&#8221; McGrade noted.</blockquote>
http://cnbc.africa/news/international/2017/03/09/50-oil-price/

As winning streak falters analysts debate where next for oil

Jessica Wa&#8217;u | CNBC
A new report from UBS estimates that artificial intelligence (AI) technologies could create an economic value of about $1.8 trillion to $3 trillion in Asia by 2030. But that value comes at a cost, with an estimated 30 million to 50 million jobs in Asia at risk of displacement in the medium to long term.
Financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, retail and transportation, are the sectors likely to bear the brunt of job losses, according to UBS Global IT Analyst Sundeep Gantori. Speaking with CNBC&#8217;s &#8220;Street Signs,&#8221; he said jobs in traditional sectors that are predictive and routine in nature will be affected.
So in preparation for the future, he advised that job seekers target roles requiring personalization or creativity.
<blockquote>&#8220;Focus on creativity jobs&#8230; entrepreneurship jobs, arts&#8230; and maybe sports,&#8221; he said. &#8220;We have to go back to those old days where arts are valued. So maybe that&#8217;s the future.&#8221;</blockquote>
While some jobs may become irrelevant, AI will also create new categories of jobs elsewhere, Gantori said. Data scientists are expected to get a leg up in the future, with UBS describing data as the &#8220;fuel&#8221; that powers the AI engine.
The firm also recommended investing in research and development-intensive companies related to AI, such as healthcare and advanced engineering.
The report pointed to Asia being a late entrant in the AI world, lagging behind a solid ecosystem in the U.S. But expect that gap to narrow as governments put more money into data sciences and machine learning, he said. Capital flows into AI-based start-ups are also expected to increase as the relevant talent pool in Asia grows.
Gantori said, &#8220;By 2025, we think that the talent in India and China together will exceed what we&#8217;ll have in the U.S. At the same time, the region generates a lot of data, which is very handy in AI.&#8221;

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South African tourism: Negative effects of marches and protests

Is political pluralism a threat to Malawi?

AIMS takes Africa on a quantum leap into science

Facebook has reached its Microsoft Bing moment, and history shows the results won’t be pretty

Where is South Africa going and what does it mean for markets?

Mali President Keita names loyalist cabinet ahead of 2018 elections

South African tumult hinders Barclays’ exit from continent

LIVE: National #OppositionMarch protest for SA President Zuma to step down

Risk of mass starvation rising rapidly in Africa, Yemen – U.N

Africa faces a new threat to democracy: the ‘constitutional coup’

As winning streak falters analysts debate where next for oil

How to keep a job in a world of AI? Get creative

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We will do all we can to avoid another downgrade – SA’s Gigaba

Nigeria’s military destroys 13 illegal oil refineries

Botswana’s 300 MW power plant stalled over $800m guarantee dispute

Nigeria central bank offers $250 mln forwards to airlines, fuel importers

The $2.3 bn firm that processes payments for Uber and Netflix, saw 2016 revenues surge 99%

South African tourism: Negative effects of marches and protests

Is political pluralism a threat to Malawi?

AIMS takes Africa on a quantum leap into science

Facebook has reached its Microsoft Bing moment, and history shows the results won’t be pretty

Where is South Africa going and what does it mean for markets?

Mali President Keita names loyalist cabinet ahead of 2018 elections

South African tumult hinders Barclays’ exit from continent

LIVE: National #OppositionMarch protest for SA President Zuma to step down

Risk of mass starvation rising rapidly in Africa, Yemen – U.N

Africa faces a new threat to democracy: the ‘constitutional coup’

As winning streak falters analysts debate where next for oil

How to keep a job in a world of AI? Get creative

News Tips

Advertise With Us

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