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When COVID-19 struck, different countries around the world put forward measures to mitigate its spread.

Dropped emissions during COVID-19 lock-down: How will this impact climate change?

<figure>
 <img decoding="async" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/339991/original/file-20200605-176546-gdqw9h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip"><figcaption>
 The demand of power in West Africa is rising 
Sebastian Sterl 
</figcaption></figure>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sebastian-sterl-1110829">Sebastian Sterl</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/vrije-universiteit-brussel-2958">Vrije Universiteit Brussel</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robert-brecha-1095031">Robert Brecha</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-dayton-1726">University of Dayton</a>
Not too long ago, when the idea of solar and wind energy was still hotly debated, critics used to point out the limitations of these energy sources: the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow. But nowadays <a href="https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-05-24/a-100-renewable-grid-isnt-just-feasible-its-already-happening/">many countries’</a> electricity grids are strongly supplied by renewable energy.
The challenge in creating flexible, reliable and affordable energy supply systems with renewables lies in the very different circumstances across countries and regions. Planning and expanding renewable power must consider countries’ local resources and their existing and planned infrastructure. This becomes even more interesting for countries trying to grow their grids and expand their renewables at the same time – like many in sub-Saharan Africa.
One technology that has the flexibility to complement solar and wind power production is hydropower. It can be used as a constant source of electricity, but also compensate for fluctuations in other sources. But it does need to be properly planned and managed if it’s to be sustainable.
Since power generation infrastructure lasts for 30 to 50 years, decisions taken today will to a large extent determine whether governments can meet their <a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx">climate targets</a>.
Across West Africa, many countries grapple with the challenge of rising electricity demand. At the same time, climate change impacts, mostly caused by fossil fuel combustion, are having a heavy impact on the region’s <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/projects/impact-climate-action/west-africa/">weather patterns</a> and potentially <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-32736-0">agricultural yields</a>.
Can increased electricity generation be harmonised with climate change objectives?
Our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0539-0">research</a> shows that combining sustainably managed hydropower plants with new solar and wind power projects is a promising option for the West African region. It could minimise the use of fossil fuels and their negative climate change impacts as the region seeks to expand access to affordable electricity.
<h2>West African Power Pool</h2>
Countries in West Africa have different renewable energy potentials. <a href="http://www.ecowrex.org/mapView/index.php?lang=eng&amp;mclayers=layerGHI">Solar potential</a> exists nearly everywhere. <a href="http://www.ecowrex.org/mapView/index.php?lang=eng&amp;mclayers=layerResWind">Wind potential</a> is strongest along coastal areas and in the northern, drier part of the region. Hydropower potential is mostly concentrated in the southern part of the region, which receives the <a href="http://www.ecowrex.org/mapView/index.php?lang=eng&amp;mclayers=layerCatchment2">most rainfall</a>.
Many countries already use large hydropower plants, such as Ghana’s Akosombo dam, and many new dams are in the planning. <a href="https://www.esi-africa.com/industry-sectors/renewable-energy/burkina-faso-unveil-zagtouli-solar-power-plant/">Solar</a> and <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/25/africa/west-africas-largest-wind-plant/index.html">wind</a> power are more recent additions.
Cross-border electricity trade could make better use of all this hydropower, coupled with solar and wind. A common power pool, allowing countries to share their resources, could increase reliable, renewable power supply by as much as 60%, according to our research.
The diagram below, based on our paper, illustrates an example of countries’ potential contributions to such a power pool.
<figure class="align-center ">
 <img decoding="async" alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338707/original/file-20200531-78885-nw40o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338707/original/file-20200531-78885-nw40o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=563&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338707/original/file-20200531-78885-nw40o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=563&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338707/original/file-20200531-78885-nw40o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=563&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338707/original/file-20200531-78885-nw40o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=707&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338707/original/file-20200531-78885-nw40o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=707&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/338707/original/file-20200531-78885-nw40o1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=707&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"><figcaption>
 Each West African country could contribute to a shared West African Power Pool for electricity supply, based on its own nationally available resources. Picture provided by the authors.
</figcaption></figure>
West African countries do already collaborate on electricity exchanges, but mostly through bilateral contracts. The <a href="http://www.ecowapp.org/">West African Power Pool</a>, a regional agency, is planning to integrate the national power systems into a unified electricity market on a larger scale. Our research shows how these efforts could be streamlined with the growth of renewable electricity sources.
Similar efforts are under way in other parts of the world, such as the European Union, where <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/05/28/final-call-for-feedback-on-eu-rules-for-renewables-financing/">cross-border cooperation</a> is also expected to become more important to scale up renewable electricity generation.
<h2>Benefits for health, costs and ecology</h2>
In our paper, we use a new <a href="https://github.com/VUB-HYDR/REVUB">model</a> to examine the synergies of sustainable hydropower generation with solar and wind power in West Africa. The model shows how to manage these sources in combination.
We show that the region can use hydropower, rather than natural gas plants, to ensure grid reliability while increasing solar and wind power. Natural gas is often touted as a bridging fuel in the transition to sustainable energy. But global emissions need to be around zero by mid-century according to the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">Paris Agreement</a>. Building more gas infrastructure therefore risks missing climate goals.
The negative impacts on health from <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/digest/air-pollution-from-fossil-fuels-costs-8-billion-per-day-new-research-finds">air pollution</a> resulting from burning fossil fuels are also well known. This can be avoided by investing in renewable energy.
We argue that the cost of renewable electricity over a plant’s lifetime is likely to soon become <a href="https://irena.org/publications/2020/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2019">significantly cheaper</a> than for fossil fuels. This is primarily thanks to decreases in solar <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-photovoltaic-solar-energy-12924">photovoltaic</a> costs.
<h2>The way forward</h2>
Our paper shows one way to start the renewable transition for West Africa is by optimising the use of local solar, wind and water resources while keeping an eye on sustainability criteria. For instance, our methodology ensures that hydropower lake levels and downstream river flows remain within acceptable boundaries. It also underlines the possibility of replacing future hydropower plants with solar and wind.
This will increase the overall ecological sustainability of renewable power generation.
Taken together, such measures will help to pave the way for a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148120304109">long-term transition</a> towards solar PV-based power systems, supported by wind, hydropower, and battery storage.
Our study framework is not limited to West Africa. It can be used for other regions that depend heavily on hydropower and also seek to increase solar and wind power generation.
West African countries are not yet locked in to large, integrated power grid infrastructure designed for plants powered by fossil fuels, as is the case in Europe and North America. The region can plan its future grids around renewables from the outset. It’s an opportunity to leapfrog old technologies – one which other parts of the world have never had.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139521/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sebastian-sterl-1110829">Sebastian Sterl</a>, Researcher, Climate Services for Renewable Energy, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/vrije-universiteit-brussel-2958">Vrije Universiteit Brussel</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robert-brecha-1095031">Robert Brecha</a>, Professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-dayton-1726">University of Dayton</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-west-africa-can-expand-power-supply-and-meet-climate-goals-139521">original article</a>.

Central Bank of Nigeria cuts benchmark lending rate to 12.5%

How West Africa can expand power supply and meet climate goals

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Nigeria’s Minister of Environment, Mohammad Abubakar says the country has commenced review of the National Policy on Climate Change in a bid to fulfil the Paris Agreement. Abubakar joins CNBC Africa for more.

Environment Minister Mohammad Abubakar on why Nigeria is reviewing its climate change policy

By Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, former Finance Minister of Nigeria and Co-Chair of the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate



As African heads of State convene at the African Union (AU) Summit, they will discuss the AU 2020 theme: “silencing the guns”. Conflict and instability still present serious challenges across the continent, hindering development and perpetuating poverty. 



2020 is also a critical year for climate action when countries are urged to enhance the ambition of their climate commitments. Current commitments <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2019">fall short</a> of the Paris Agreement target to limit temperature rise to levels that will avoid the most adverse impacts of climate change. 



Stepping up climate ambition matters particularly for Africa. While African countries have not created the climate crisis, they are some of those that are most vulnerable to climate impacts. Over 3 million people were severely affected by <a href="https://www.mercycorps.org/articles/cyclone-idai-quick-facts">Cyclone Idai</a> last March, which destroyed as much as half of Mozambique’s annual crops and critical infrastructure. By 2050, climate change could force more than <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29461">86 million people</a> to move across countries in sub-Saharan Africa.  



Rising conflict, political instability and the climate crisis are inextricably linked. Conflict happens for many reasons, but water insecurity, and its <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2019/11/water-could-limit-our-ability-feed-world-these-9-graphics-explain-why">subsequent impact on land resources</a>, is often a factor. In 2017, water played a major role in conflict in <a href="https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/documents/files/whdt2018_web_final_singles.pdf">at least 45 countries</a>, particularly in North Africa and the Middle East. As climate change increases the risk of drought, in Africa &#8211; where <a href="https://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/water">one in every three people</a> already face water scarcity &#8211; the stakes are increasing too. 



The connection between instability and climate change is not limited to Africa. More than 7 million people in 185 countries <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2019/10/climate-transitions-wont-happen-without-social-justice-and-greater-democracy">participated in climate protests last </a>September to demand that their governments step up climate action. But there is also resistance to climate policies that don’t put people first. Social unrest in France, Chile, Ecuador and elsewhere in 2019 demonstrated that to be acceptable, fuel and energy price reforms and climate policies must deliver clear benefits to people and in particular vulnerable communities. 



I myself saw this first-hand when, as Finance Minister, our Government led a reform of costly fossil fuel subsidies in Nigeria. Fortunately, we have a mounting body of evidence that shows that a people-centred approach to climate action is possible.  



<a href="https://www.wri.org/news/people-centered-climate-action">People-centred climate action</a> aims to unlock social and economic benefits, target these benefits to further equity and ensure a just transition away from a high-carbon economy. This can include measures such as restoring ecosystems in ways that also raise rural incomes, reduce emissions, and build resilience; or using revenues from carbon pricing to better target support to low- and middle-income households. For example, using these savings or revenues to invest in <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2019/10/climate-change-hurting-africa-s-water-sector-investing-water-can-pay">secure clean water and sanitation services</a> for the poorest in Africa can help achieve key development goals.



Identifying opportunities where African countries
can&nbsp;lead on climate action whilst&nbsp;achieving&nbsp;both development and
climate targets&nbsp;is critical to deliver social benefits.&nbsp;Recent
research shows that&nbsp;Ethiopia,&nbsp;host country of the AU
Summit,&nbsp;can&nbsp;create jobs, ensure national food security and surpass
its milestone of becoming a middle-income country, all while establishing a solid&nbsp;foundation
for a new climate economy. Launched in January, the&nbsp;<a href="https://ethiopianmonitor.com/2020/01/08/a-new-nature-based-food-and-land-use-economy/">Food and
Land&nbsp;Use Coalition’s Action Agenda for a New Food and Land Use Economy</a>&nbsp;highlights&nbsp;crucial&nbsp;entry
points of action&nbsp;that will deliver multiple benefits for&nbsp;sustainable
development.&nbsp;



These benefits include improving incomes of more than
700,000 smallholder&nbsp;farmers&nbsp;transitioning to commercial crop
production, increasing agricultural GDP by $362 million from dairy and
poultry&nbsp;commercialisation, overcoming rural financing gaps,&nbsp;and
increasing the value of credit-constrained smallholder producers by up to 60%
per hectare.&nbsp;Such&nbsp;findings provide a powerful example for Africa,
where investments to help poor smallholder farmers adapt to climate
change&nbsp;could significantly increase incomes and slash poverty&nbsp;to
boost resilience.&nbsp;



People-centred climate action is already happening in parts of Africa. Distributed renewable energy systems, for example, are quickly creating new opportunities for energy access and gender parity. In Ghana, the availability of solar mini-grids boosted women’s entrepreneurship by 29% and increased<a href="https://medium.com/power-africa/solar-mini-grids-boost-womens-entrepreneurship-8479e4c1f8f8"> their incomes by eleven times</a>. In the land-use sector, the Kenya-based <a href="https://www.greenbeltmovement.org/who-we-are">Green Belt Movement</a> has planted millions of trees on degraded land with explicit goals to improve rural women’s livelihoods, responding to their need for water, food, firewood and increased incomes. 



Many African leaders are well versed in the sustainable development opportunities that lie in tackling climate change. Many can also see how their people and their political fortunes will benefit from leadership on this issue. That’s one reason why <a href="https://www.climatewatchdata.org/2020-ndc-tracker">47 African countries</a>, have already indicated their intent to enhance or update their climate commitments in 2020, showing their leadership to implement the Paris Agreement. 



2020 provides a unique opportunity for African leaders to simultaneously address the risks of political instability, pressing development needs, and the impacts of climate change. This process clearly can – and must – target social and economic benefits to enhance equity and improve the livelihoods of the poor. Africa can lead with a people-centered approach that can propel sustainable development in ways that improve millions of people’s lives.

Urbanisation_shutterstock

Op-Ed: Now is the time to put climate change on the African Union’s agenda: Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala

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On the side-lines of the ongoing African Mining Indaba in Cape Town, South Africa, Managing Director of Menar, Vuslat Bayoglu highlights the importance of sustainable technology in the midst of the climate change crisis faced by Africa. He also spoke briefly on optimising growth and investment in the digitised mining economy and the key to success in monetising companies to develop an eye for identifying promising opportunities in the mining sector and converting them into profitably businesses. He spoke to CNBC Africa’s Chris Bishop for more.

#MiningIndaba2020: MD of Menar

#MiningIndaba2020: MD of Menar, Vuslat Bayoglu on realising investment opportunities in African mining

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Ghana’s President, Nana Akufo-Addo says the country’s national budget reflects its commitment towards the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). He made this remark while speaking on Ghana’s climate change strategy, economic transformation and more at a press conference in the ongoing World Economic Forum in Davos.

World Economic Forum: President Akufo-Addo on Ghana’s response strategy for climate change

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The last decade was the warmest on record as a result of climate change and the horn of Africa is one the regions that have been hit the most. According to the International Committee of the Red Cross, people in Ethiopia, Somalia, and other parts of Eastern Africa are increasingly caught between deadly extremes weather conditions in addition to violence. Julien Lerisson, Head of ICRC Delegation in Ethiopia joins CNBC Africa for more.

How climate change is threating food security & peace in the Horn of Africa

How climate change is threatening food security & peace in the Horn of Africa

DAVOS 2020 – WHY THE WORLD IS LESS COOL THIS YEAR. 



By Chris Bishop



Next week world leaders will meet at one of the coldest
spots on earth to discuss this divided planet’s burning issues that threaten
its very survival.



For years, the World’s Davos gathering has been around
issues of globalisation, the Fourth Industrial Revolution and artificial
intelligence. It is 50 years since the free market optimist Klaus Schwab
launched the gathering, in the Swiss ski village, aimed at bringing the world’s
economies closers.



The wags used to paint it as the great, good and the
powerful linking arms to sing: ‘We are the World.’ This year, the song of Davos
could be closer to a Bob Marley’s So Much Trouble in the World on the aptly
named album Survival.



As raging fires lay waste vast tracts of Australia – the
word is they won’t be doused until March – the World Economic Forum says the greatest
risk, in its 10 year outlook, is extreme weather destroying property and taking
life, followed closely by the failure to tackle climate change. Both lurk
beneath the glow of Australia’s ruinous bush fires.&nbsp; &nbsp;



The other greatest risks, according to 750 global experts
polled by WEF, are: environmental crime and mistakes, like radiation leaks and
oil spills; followed closely by the destruction of natural resources, tsunamis
earthquakes and geomagnetic storms. 



“The political landscape is polarised, sea levels are rising
and climate fires are burning. This is the year when world leaders must work
with all sectors of society to repair and reinvigorate our systems of
cooperation, not just for short-term benefit but for tackling our deep-rooted
risks,” said Borge Brende, President of the World Economic Forum. 



This is the second year running that that climate and
environment concerns top the list; one reason why issues like climate change
are shooting up news agenda in newsrooms around the world and causing companies
worldwide to rethink their investments. 



Aside from the fury of the elements, 2020 threatens to be a
dangerous and depressed year all round.



“The report forecasts a year of increased domestic and
international divisions and economic slowdown. Geopolitical turbulence is
propelling us towards an “unsettled” unilateral world of great power rivalries
at a time when business and government leaders must focus urgently on working
together to tackle shared risks’,” says the report.



The leaders of the South African delegation to Davos meet at
a plush hotel in Rosebank, Johannesburg, to set out their stall for yet another
pitch to the world for investors as the economy stalls with growth expected to
be less than one per cent this year.



As usual, the South Africans will be looking largely for
investors in heavy industry, tech and mining. Maybe the country – on of the
biggest polluters in Africa &#8211; should be looking to attract investment into
renewable energy to help avert climate change before the elements eat it for
breakfast. &nbsp;&nbsp;

These are the world’s greatest risks

<figure>
 <img decoding="async" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308779/original/file-20200107-123377-2bsrfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&#038;q=45&#038;auto=format&#038;w=754&#038;fit=clip" />
 <figcaption>
 High resolution satellite image of the Nile River’s delta.
 Shutterstock/TommoT
 </figcaption>
 </figure>

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ethan-d-coffel-389546">Ethan D. Coffel</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/dartmouth-college-1720">Dartmouth College</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/justin-s-mankin-930128">Justin S. Mankin</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/dartmouth-college-1720">Dartmouth College</a>

The Nile – the world’s longest river – runs through <a href="https://ascelibrary.org/doi/pdf/10.1061/9780784481394.026">11 countries</a> in Africa and <a href="https://www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/nile-basin">has a basin</a> that covers about 3 million sq kms, nearly 10% of the continent’s landmass. About <a href="http://atlas.nilebasin.org/treatise/estimated-and-projected-total-population-in-nile-basin-countries/">250 million people</a> are reliant on the Nile’s waters in Ethiopia, Uganda, South Sudan, Sudan and Egypt. 

Nearly all of the rainfall that feeds the Nile’s two major tributaries – the Blue and White Nile – falls in the upper Nile basin, found in South Sudan, western Ethiopia and Uganda. The lower Nile basin receives very little rainfall and the countries there – Sudan and Egypt – depend heavily on the Nile for water. 

Climate projections suggest that, by the end of the century, the amount of rain in the Upper Nile basin could increase <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019EF001247">by up to 20%</a>. But our <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019EF001247">new paper</a> shows that, despite more rainfall, devastating hot and dry spells are projected to become more frequent in the Upper Nile basin. 

These conditions will occur simultaneously with the region’s rapid population growth, <a href="http://atlas.nilebasin.org/treatise/estimated-and-projected-total-population-in-nile-basin-countries/">anticipated</a> to double by the middle of this century. This will increase water stress in the region, irrespective of the modest rainfall increases.

At present, around 10% of the basin’s population faces chronic <a href="https://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/scarcity.shtml">water scarcity</a> due to the region’s seasonal aridity and the highly unequal distribution of water resources. By 2040, according to our research – in a year with average temperatures and rain – the number of people facing water scarcity could reach 35%. That’s more than 80 million people without enough water to function in their daily lives.

Hot and dry conditions will make this worse. These conditions will kill crops, reduce hydropower, diminish the water available for people and industry and heighten tensions over the distribution of regional water resources. By 2040, a hot and dry year could push over 45% of the people in the Nile Basin – nearly 110 million people – into water scarcity. 

Even without these developments, population growth would drive water scarcity in the Upper Nile. But larger deficits in the amount of water flowing into streams and rivers during future hot and dry years will amplify this effect. This will leave an additional 5% to 15% of the future population in the Upper Nile basin facing water scarcity in hot and dry years.

These climate and population changes will project onto an already complex and tense socioeconomic and political landscape. 

The Nile’s 11 riparian states vie with one another for the river’s water. The downstream states of Egypt and Sudan try to assert control over the Nile flow, while upstream states try to find ways to secure water for their well-being. Coupled with the region’s strong dependence on subsistence agriculture and political instability, the region is at risk of severe food and water shortages. 

<h2>More hot and dry years</h2>

For our research, we wanted to understand how much more frequent hot and dry years could become, despite the slight increase in overall rainfall.

To do this we assessed historical climate trends in the Upper Nile Basin using eight observational data sets. These recorded rainfall and temperature in the Upper Nile basin between 1961 and 2005. We also used climate models to estimate how temperature and precipitation will change over the remaining century.

Our findings show that hot and dry years have become more common over the past four decades in the Upper Nile basin and that this trend is likely to continue. These hot and dry conditions will be similar to those that have resulted in crop failures, food shortages and humanitarian crises in the region over the past decades. 

By the late 21st century, the frequency of these hot and dry years may rise between a factor of 1.5 and 3. In the past, hot and dry years occurred about once every 20 years; but this increase in frequency means that in the future a hot and dry year could occur once every six to 10 years, making them a common experience for people in the region. 

In addition to becoming more frequent, they will also become more severe. Temperatures during heat waves in the region could rise between 2°C and 6°C, putting far more stress on people, animals and crops than occurs today.

We estimated the number of people facing water scarcity by comparing the total runoff – the amount of water flowing into streams and rivers – which is available for human consumption with the amount of water every person needs to meet their basic needs. When we make this comparison, we find that despite the small projected increase in rainfall, as the population rises and hot and dry years become more frequent, the total water supply will be far less than needed to meet the region’s needs.

<h2>Causes</h2>

What’s causing all this?

Like the rest of the world, the <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/1860/A%20Climate%20Trend%20Analysis%20of%20Ethiopia.pdf">Nile Basin region has been warming</a> due to rising global greenhouse gas concentrations. Because rainfall is projected to slightly increase in the region, the frequency of dry years won’t change significantly. However, the rise in temperature means that when dry years happen, they will be hot. 

Compounding this drying is a projected increase in the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3273">year-to-year variations</a> in rainfall, which may be due to projected intensification of El Niño and La Niña cycles. This creates a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0140-y">precipitation “whiplash”</a> in the region, where severe <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/islamic-relief-responds-flash-floods-devastate-white-nile-sudan">wet</a> and <a href="https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/18/1239/2014/">dry</a> years occur in quick succession. 

<h2>What can be done</h2>

One critical priority is to ensure that food and water are more equally available to all. Despite there being enough food and water on average, many people <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/1866/09.30.19_-_USAID-DCHA_Ethiopia_Complex_Emergency_Fact_Sheet_3.pdf">cannot afford or access it</a>. This will get worse.

A critical first step is for basin states to create an equitable water allocation scheme among them that not only addresses “historical rights” – such as Egypt’s long-held claims to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03932729.2017.1333272">two-thirds of Nile flow</a> – but also to the needs of upstream countries like South Sudan and Ethiopia, which require water to build their economies. 

Cooperative water-sharing institutions within the basin could help avert contentious situations. For instance, Ethiopia is currently constructing the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-dam-factbox/factbox-key-facts-about-ethiopias-giant-nile-dam-idUSKBN1XG21L">Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam</a> on the Blue Nile River. Without strong regional institutions to provide political and legal assurances of fair Nile water use, the dam’s construction is provoking worries in Egypt, as it would likely reduce irrigation water availability for the country’s agriculture.

Water may be often pointed to as a source of conflict, but as with the case of <a href="http://www.columbia.edu/%7Etmd2118/situstudio/why_cooperation.pdf">Israel and Jordan</a>, it can also be a means to cooperation, getting nations to the negotiating table. In a future world with more people and less water, countries in the Nile Basin will need to work together to ensure the best use of the region’s resources to catch and store rainfall in the wet, flood risk years, and equally distribute that water in dry years. 

If the region’s governments fail to work together to prepare, the consequences for their people could be catastrophic.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129360/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" />

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ethan-d-coffel-389546">Ethan D. Coffel</a>, Neukom Institute Postdoctoral Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/dartmouth-college-1720">Dartmouth College</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/justin-s-mankin-930128">Justin S. Mankin</a>, Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/dartmouth-college-1720">Dartmouth College</a>

This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-the-future-there-will-be-more-rain-but-less-water-in-the-nile-basin-129360">original article</a>.

Nile_River_Shutterstock_TommoT

In the future there will be more rain but less water in the Nile Basin, what can be done?

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One of the most pertinent issues that have been echoed for years is the need for reforms and implementation for the risk faced by climate change. Many organisations and conferences have tried to tackle with the conversation of climate change in the last decade but as we enter the new decade in 2020 we look at the ways in which countries and governments could better handle the issues of climate changes. Tim Palmer, Royal Society Research Professor of Climate Physics at the University of Oxford and Rachael Akosua Antwi, Climate Change and Sustainability Advisor at KOA Capital joined CNBC Africa to give insight.

Is business ready to take responsibility for climate change?

By <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/02/5-easy-ways-to-be-more-sustainable-and-save-money-in-2020.html?forYou=true">Alicia Adamczyk</a>



With new stories near daily about the <a class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/31/raging-wildfires-trap-4000-at-australian-towns-waterfront.html">latest environmental disaster</a>, it might seem like changing your personal consumption habits won’t make much of a difference.



It’s true that systemic change is critical to combating climate change: A&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/08/how-to-reduce-your-eco-footprint-and-save-money.html" class="">2018 report from the United Nations</a>&nbsp;found that humans have&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments/" class="" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">12 years to significantly reduce carbon emissions</a>&nbsp;to ensure a “safe” planet, which cannot be accomplished without buy-in from companies and governments across the globe. But individuals also have a part to play, Andrea George, director of the Sustainability and Environmental Management Office at Vanderbilt University, tells&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/make-it/" class="">CNBC Make It</a>.



If you want to live more sustainably, don’t put too much pressure on yourself to change all of your habits overnight. Focus on making one smaller change at a time, George suggests.



“It’s hard to change all of your behavior at once, or get somebody else to change all of their behavior at once,” says George. “Pick one thing.”



Here five ways to get started.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">1. Consume less</h2>



By far the biggest change people can make is to not consume to begin with, says George.



“If you think about the hierarchy of consumption, it’s reduce, reuse, recycle,” she says. “It’s that ‘reduce’ piece that’s really key. I’m trying not to sound strident or harsh, but the thing you don’t buy is the most sustainable of all.”



It’s well and good to buy from sustainable clothing brands or shop for a hybrid car, but it’s even better to wear what you already have and drive the car you already own if it still runs. The tech industry has a huge environmental footprint; try to limit the number of new devices you buy and instead&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/20/technology/personaltech/green-environmental-tech.html" class="" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">repair your older phones and laptops</a>.



“Think about: What do you need versus what do you want?” suggests George.



At the very least, cutting back on online shopping and expedited shipping — which is bad for the environment and has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/15/on-prime-day-amazon-workers-brace-for-two-months-of-hell.html" class="">serious humanitarian implications for workers</a>— is one concrete step the eco-conscious can take. George calls this combating the “Amazon effect.”



“Waste generation per person is rising in America, and a lot of it is the online shopping,” says George. Giving up&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/06/reuters-america-analysis-amazons-rising-air-shipments-fly-in-the-face-of-climate-plan.html" class="">overnight shipping from Amazon</a>&nbsp;and other online shops in 2020 will go a long way to reducing your carbon footprint.



For more tips on cutting back on your spending, <a class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/11/how-no-spend-tactics-can-help-you-save.html">read this article</a>.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">2. Travel smarter</h2>



<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/22/juncker-proposes-climate-change-spending-after-greta-thunberg-speech.html" class="">Climate change activist Greta Thunberg</a>&nbsp;made&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/kidspost/greta-thunberg-reaches-new-york-by-crossing-the-atlantic-by-boat/2019/08/28/736eb9b2-c04c-11e9-a5c6-1e74f7ec4a93_story.html" class="" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">headlines across the country</a>&nbsp;by traveling by ship in 2019 rather than flying. You don’t necessarily need to go as far as Thunberg, George says, though changing your travel habits is important.<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/climate/airplane-pollution-global-warming.html" class="" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">&nbsp;Airplanes</a>&nbsp;contribute&nbsp;<a href="https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/regulations-greenhouse-gas-emissions-aircraft" class="" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">12% of all U.S. transportation greenhouse gas emissions</a>, according to the EPA. If you travel by plane regularly, this is likely where you can make the biggest difference, says George.



“Air travel is a hard nut to crack. The only way to offset it is not to do it, or to buy carbon offsets,” she says. Most airlines allow passengers to buy&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/sep/16/carbon-offset-projects-carbon-emissions" class="" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">carbon offsets</a>&nbsp;while booking their tickets, though, once again, the most fuel-efficient flight is the one you don’t take.



If you drive a vehicle, George also suggests bundling tasks together so that you are spending less time in traffic idling and using less gas overall. If you have access to reliable public transportation, or can walk or bike to your destinations, try to make those your primary modes of transportation.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">3. Eat more vegetables</h2>



Around 30 to 40% of the food supply in the United States is wasted, according to the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.usda.gov/foodwaste/faqs" class="" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">U.S. Department of Agriculture</a>, which makes buying and consuming only the food you need one of the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.epa.gov/recycle/reducing-wasted-food-home" class="" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">easiest and most impactful ways to reduce your carbon emissions</a>, says George.



Cutting down on meat consumption is especially important, according to the <a class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/08/how-to-reduce-your-eco-footprint-and-save-money.html">United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a>. An added bonus: Less food waste means less money wasted.



“People get really touchy when you start getting into what they eat,” says George. But “you don’t have to have meat at three meals a day, you can get by with a lot less than that.”



Try&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/20/meatless-alternatives-vegetarian-vegan-plant-based-foods-diets.html" class="">substituting vegetarian options</a>&nbsp;when you can, and when you do buy meat, George recommends free range or organic options, or cuts from your local farmer’s market. Cookbooks and cooking sites specializing in flavorful vegetarian options abound.



George also says to be conscious of the materials used to package or consume your food. She suggests buying in bulk rather than single-serving food and to reuse plates, napkins, cups, cutlery, and so on, whenever possible.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">4. Give sustainably</h2>



One way to engage your family and friends in a conversation about sustainability without coming across as overbearing or critical is to gift them a sustainable good, like a reusable water bottle, beeswax food wrap or locally-produced items like jewelry or soap made by artisans, says George.



“I don’t take well to other people telling me what I’m doing wrong, so I don’t try to tell people what they’re doing wrong,” she says. Instead, “you can take the opportunity to talk to them about why you chose that sustainable gift.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">5. Don’t give up</h2>



It’s easy to be cynical about whether or not our individual choices really make a difference, says George. But she believes that there is power — not to mention savings — in continuously tweaking our behaviors to be more environmentally friendly.



“I kind of think of sustainability as health,” she says. “For most of us, you’re always striving to do better and all of those cumulative improvements and cumulative ways to change your thinking add up to real change over time.”



This article was first published on CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/02/5-easy-ways-to-be-more-sustainable-and-save-money-in-2020.html?forYou=true">https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/02/5-easy-ways-to-be-more-sustainable-and-save-money-in-2020.html?forYou=true</a> and is republished with its permission.

5 easy ways to be more sustainable and save money in 2020

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Despite technology advancement and significant improvement in human capacity, the current food system is failing communities around the world, increasing diet-related disease and accelerating the effects of climate change, according to experts. Mehrdad Ehsani, Managing Director of Food Initiative at The Rockefeller Foundation joins CNBC Africa to discuss solutions.

Leveraging technology to fix issues in current food systems

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The German government and the government of Rwanda have launched a project worth about $32 million for a climate governance project in which the citizens will be able to hold leaders accountable in the implementation and monitoring of results of climate change financing projects. Apollinaire Mupiganyi, Director General of Transparency International-Rwanda joins CNBC Africa for more.

Rwanda-Germany relations strengthen with $32mn for climate governance project

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Leading international think-tank, the Club of Rome is set to hold its global Summit for the first time in South Africa. The summit will see the gathering of notable scientists, economists, business people and former heads of state to discuss South Africa and Africa’s economic landscape, climate change and new models of finance. Joining CNBC Africa for more are the co-Presidents of the Club of Rome, Sandrine Dixson-Declève and Dr Mamphela Ramphele.

Club of Rome Summit in Africa: Why Africa should build its economies on renewable energy

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Banking group FirstRand has refused to endorse a proposed climate change resolution to limit their funding of coal projects. Tracey Davies, Executive Director of Just Share joins CNBC Africa to discuss the increased value of climate change resolutions at AGM’s and the banking sectors responsibility for reducing their exposure to climate related risks.

Just Share’s Tracey Davies on why banks should embrace climate friendly projects

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Africa&#8217;s economy is largely dependent on nature with agriculture the backbone of 70 per cent of 1.5 billion citizens’ income stream. For more, CNBC Africa&#8217;s Steven Muvunyi caught up with, Regional Director of IUCN, Luther B Anukur in Kigali.

Understanding Africa’s position on the climate change debate

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 Power station in South Africa.
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By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mark-new-189846">Mark New</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-cape-town-691">University of Cape Town</a>

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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz/topics/climate-explained-74664">Climate Explained</a> is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. 

If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz

<blockquote>
How much climate change is natural? How much is man made?
</blockquote>

As someone who has been working on climate change detection and its causes for over 20 years I was both surprised and not surprised that I was asked to write on this topic by The Conversation. For <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jul/24/scientific-consensus-on-humans-causing-global-warming-passes-99">nearly all</a> climate scientists, the case is proven that humans are the overwhelming cause of the long-term changes in the climate that we are observing. And that this case should be closed.

Despite this, climate denialists continue to receive <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjuGCJJUGsg">prominence</a> in some media which can lead people into thinking that man-made climate change is still in question. So it’s worth going back over the science to remind ourselves just how much has already been established.

Successive reports by the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> – mandated by the United Nations to assess scientific evidence on climate change – have evaluated the causes of climate change. The most recent <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">special report on global warming of 1.5 degrees</a> confirms that the observed changes in global and regional climate over the last 50 or so years are almost entirely due to human influence on the climate system and not due to natural causes.

<h2>What is climate change?</h2>

First we should perhaps ask what we mean by climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/glossary">defines climate change as</a>:

<blockquote>
a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer.
</blockquote>

The causes of climate change can be any combination of:

<ul>
<li>Internal variability in the climate system, <a href="https://www.nap.edu/read/23552/chapter/5">when various</a> components of the climate system – like the atmosphere and ocean – vary on their own to cause fluctuations in climatic conditions, such as temperature or rainfall. These internally-driven changes generally happen over decades or longer; shorter variations such as those related to El Niño fall in the bracket of climate variability, not climate change.</li>
<li>Natural external causes such as increases or decreases in volcanic activity or solar radiation. For example, every 11 years or so, the Sun’s magnetic field <a href="https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/solar-cycles/en/">completely flips</a> and this can cause small fluctuations in global temperature, up to about 0.2 degrees. On longer time scales – tens to hundreds of millions of years – geological processes can drive changes in the climate, due to shifting continents and mountain building. </li>
<li>Human influence through greenhouse gases (gases that trap heat in the atmosphere such as carbon dioxide and methane), other particles released into the air (which absorb or reflect sunlight such as soot and aerosols) and land-use change (which affects how much sunlight is absorbed on land surfaces and also how much carbon dioxide and methane is absorbed and released by vegetation and soils).</li>
</ul>

<h2>What changes have been detected?</h2>

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">recent report</a> showed that, on average, the global surface air temperature has risen by 1°C since the beginning of significant industrialisation (which roughly started in the 1850s). And it is increasing at ever faster rates, currently 0.2°C per decade, because the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have themselves been increasing ever faster. 

The oceans are warming as well. In fact, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/">about</a> 90% of the extra heat trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases is being absorbed by the oceans.

A warmer atmosphere and oceans are causing dramatic changes, including <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/arctic-sea-ice-greenland-melt">steep decreases in Arctic summer sea ice</a> which is profoundly impacting arctic marine ecosystems, increasing sea level rise which is inundating low lying coastal areas such as Pacific island atolls, and an <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180321130859.htm">increasing frequency of many climate extremes</a> such as drought and heavy rain, as well as disasters where climate is an important driver, such as wildfire, flooding and landslides.

Multiple <a href="https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/3">lines of evidence</a>, using different methods, show that <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/">human influence is the only plausible explanation</a> for the patterns and magnitude of changes that have been detected. 

This human influence is largely due to our activities that release greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, as well sunlight absorbing soot. The <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions">main sources of these warming gases and particles</a> are fossil fuel burning, cement production, land cover change (especially deforestation) and agriculture.

<h2>Weather attribution</h2>

Most of us will struggle to pick up slow changes in the climate. We feel climate change largely through how it affects weather from day-to-day, season-to-season and year-to-year.

The weather we experience arises from dynamic processes in the atmosphere, and interactions between the atmosphere, the oceans and the land surface. Human influence on the broader climate system acts on these processes so that the weather today is different in many ways from how it would have been. 

One way we can more clearly see climate change is by looking at severe weather events. A branch of climate science, called extreme event or weather attribution, looks at memorable weather events and estimates the extent of human influence on the severity of these events. It <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org">uses weather models</a> run with and without measured greenhouse gases to estimate how individual weather events would have been different in a world without climate change.

<a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world">As of early 2019</a>, nearly 70% of weather events that have been assessed in this way were shown to have had their likelihood and/or magnitude increased by human influence on climate. In a world without global warming, these events would have been less severe. Some 10% of the studies showed a reduction in likelihood, while for the remaining 20% global warming has not had a discernible effect. For example, <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae9f9">one study showed</a> that human influence on climate had increased the likelihood of the 2015-2018 drought that afflicted Cape Town in South Africa by a factor of three.

<h2>Adapting to a changing climate</h2>

Weather extremes underlie many of the hazards that damage society and the natural environment we depend upon. As global warming has progressed, so have the frequency and intensity of these hazards, and the damage they cause.

Minimising the impacts of these hazards, and having mechanisms in place to recover quickly from the impacts, is the aim of climate adaptation, as <a href="https://gca.org/global-commission-on-adaptation/home">recently reported by the Global Commission on Adaptation</a>.

As the Commission explains, investing in adaptation makes sense from economic, social and ethical perspectives. And as we know that climate change is caused by humans, society cannot use “lack of evidence” on its cause as an excuse for inaction any more.

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This article is part of <a href="https://www.cjr.org/covering_climate_now/covering-climate-partnerships.php/">The Covering Climate Now</a> series
 This is a concerted effort among news organisations to put the climate crisis at the forefront of our coverage. This article is published under a Creative Commons license and can be reproduced for free – just hit the “Republish this article” button on the page to copy the full HTML coding. The Conversation also runs Imagine, a newsletter in which academics explore how the world can rise to the challenge of climate change. <a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&amp;utm_medium=linkback&amp;utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&amp;utm_content=CoveringClimateNow">Sign up here</a>.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123604/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important">

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<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mark-new-189846">Mark New</a>, Director, African Climate and Development Initiative, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-cape-town-691">University of Cape Town</a>

This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-how-much-of-climate-change-is-natural-how-much-is-man-made-123604">original article</a>.

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