Is SA’s mining industry too deep in the COVID-19 crisis? How can it become the sunrise industry it wants to be?



For more than a century mining was the backbone of South Africa&#8217;s economy in recent years, it fell on hard times. Despite this, it still managed to contribute close to R361bn or 8.1% to SA’s GDP and over R91bn to fixed investment in 2019.  It employed 454,861 people and paid R24.3 billion in taxes. What was the impact of COVID-19 and lockdowns on the industry? Did it put mining too deep in the COVID-19 crisis? How can it once again become the sunrise industry it wants to be? <a href="https://cvent.me/2PQoZk">Register today</a> for this virtual panel discussion to find out…



<a href="https://cvent.me/2PQoZk">REGISTER NOW</a>: <a href="https://cvent.me/2PQoZk">https://cvent.me/2PQoZk</a>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1110" height="581" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/BT_Mining_Facebook_speakers-x3-1110x581.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-371919" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/BT_Mining_Facebook_speakers-x3-1110x581.jpg 1110w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/BT_Mining_Facebook_speakers-x3-300x157.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/BT_Mining_Facebook_speakers-x3-768x402.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/BT_Mining_Facebook_speakers-x3-696x364.jpg 696w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/BT_Mining_Facebook_speakers-x3-1068x559.jpg 1068w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/BT_Mining_Facebook_speakers-x3.jpg 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 1110px) 100vw, 1110px" /></figure>



Speakers Fortune Mojapelo, CEO,  Bushveld Minerals Deshnee Naidoo, former CEO, Vedanta Zinc International and board member, Minerals Council South Africa



Peter Steenkamp, CEO, Harmony



Roger Baxter, CEO, Minerals Council South Africa



TOPICS COVERED



<ul><li>What measures are in place to help South Africa’s mining sector bounce back from the COVID-19 headwinds and lockdown?</li><li>Is it enough?</li><li>Rebuilding the mining industry for tomorrow</li></ul>

The 4 most under-reported stories on the COVID-19 pandemic

Is SA’s mining industry too deep in the COVID-19 crisis? Register today for this virtual seminar…

Report by Chloe Taylor



Fifty days of strict <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/coronavirus/2020/05/13/covid-19-most-of-sa-to-move-to-level3lockdown-by-end-of-may/">lockdowns</a> followed by 30 days where measures are eased could be an effective strategy for reducing <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/southern-africa/2020/05/19/ipasas-konji-sebati-on-the-global-search-for-the-covid-19-vaccine/">Covid-19</a> deaths while ensuring some level of economic protection, scientists claim.



In an EU-backed study published on Wednesday, a cohort of researchers from nine countries simulated how various <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/east-africa/2020/05/19/covid-19-rwanda-tanzania-agree-on-a-solution-for-cross-border-movements/">lockdown strategies</a> would impact the spread of the coronavirus.



There have been almost 5 million cases of Covid-19 confirmed globally, with over 300,000 deaths from the virus worldwide, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.



Many governments have imposed some form of lockdown to mitigate transmission of the virus. But policymakers around the world are now calculating ways to gradually lift those measures as the pandemic weighs heavily on <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/05/14/covid-19-worsens-zims-economic-challenges/">economic activity</a>.



Scientists suggested in the new report that an alternative, more effective approach to indefinite or milder lockdowns could be alternating stricter measures with intervals of relaxed social distancing. Effective testing, contact tracing and isolation strategies, as well as efforts to shield society’s most vulnerable, would be consistently kept in place.



They modeled several different scenarios on 16 countries, including Australia, Mexico, Belgium, South Africa and Nigeria.



In the first scenario, no mitigation or social-distancing measures were imposed. In every single country, this led to the number of patients requiring treatment in intensive care units (ICUs) quickly and significantly exceeding available capacity. Ultimately, this would result in 7.8 million deaths across the countries included in the analysis, researchers said, and the duration of the epidemic would be almost 200 days in the majority of those nations.



The second scenario modeled a rolling cycle of 50-day “<a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/southern-africa/2020/05/12/debunking-covid-19-testing-myths-with-a-medical-doctor/">mitigation measures</a>” followed by a 30-day period where those measures were relaxed. Analysts defined mitigation measures as strategies that gradually reduced the number of new infections, such as social distancing, hygiene rules, isolating individuals with the virus, school closures and restricting large public events. These measures did not include a total lockdown.



This scenario was likely to reduce the R number — the reproduction rate of the virus — to 0.8 in all countries, the study showed. However, while it proved effective for the first three months, after the first relaxation period scientists found the number of patients requiring ICU care would exceed hospital capacities. This would lead to 3.5 million deaths across the 16 countries used in the simulation, with the pandemic lasting around 12 months in high income countries and at least 18 months in other nations.



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Researchers also modeled a third scenario, which involved a rolling cycle of stricter “suppression measures” for 50 days followed by a 30-day relaxation period. Suppression measures were defined as those that led to a faster reduction in the number of new infections, achieved by applying <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/05/14/afcfta-covid-19-as-an-opportunity-to-deepen-intra-africa-trade/">strict lockdown measures</a> on top of other mitigation measures.



In the third, most stringent scenario, the R number would be reduced to 0.5 and keep ICU demand within national capacity across all countries, scientists concluded. As more people would remain susceptible to catching the virus at the end of each cycle, however, the pandemic would be prolonged and last for more than 18 months in all countries.



But the Covid-19 death toll during the pandemic would be significantly reduced in this scenario, with just over 130,000 deaths expected across the 16 countries included the analysis.



Researchers noted that individual countries would need to define for themselves how long the durations of the intervals would last to suit their domestic needs and facilities.



A continuous, three-month strategy of strict <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/05/12/covid-19-cas-coovadia-on-why-govt-should-rethink-its-strategy-on-reopening-the-economy/">suppression measures</a> would be the fastest way to end the pandemic, with most countries able to reduce new cases to near zero in this scenario, scientists said.



Meanwhile, if looser mitigation strategies were continuously applied, it would take just over six months for new cases to fall close to zero.



Rajiv Chowdhury, a global health epidemiologist at the University of Cambridge and the report’s lead author, said the third scenario — rotating strict suppression measures with relaxation periods — may allow populations to “breathe” at intervals.



“That might make this solution more sustainable, especially in resource-poor regions,” he said.



Oscar Franco, director of the Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine at the University of Bern in Switzerland, added that the research provided a strategic option for countries to better control Covid-19.



“There’s no simple answer to the question of which strategy to choose,” he said. “Countries — particularly low-income countries — will have to weigh up the dilemma of preventing Covid-19 related deaths and public health system failure with the long-term economic collapse and hardship.”



The IMF has warned that the world is on course for the deepest <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/coronavirus/2020/05/12/covid-19-kick-starting-sas-small-medium-large-tourism-businesses-join-cnbc-africas-virtual-seminar-tuesday-12th-may-register-today/">recession</a> since the 1930s thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, predicting that the <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/05/13/how-african-economies-will-reawaken-from-the-covid-19-nightmare/">global economy</a> will contract by 3% this year.



This article was first published on CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/19/study-proposes-50-days-on-30-days-off-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/19/study-proposes-50-days-on-30-days-off-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy.html</a> and is republished with its permission.



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

Sub-Saharan Africa to suffer 23.1% decline in remittances in 2020 – World Bank

Scientists believe this 50 days on, 30 days off lockdown strategy will help fight COVID-19

The Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, Ebrahim Patel, has relaxed restrictions on a wide range of e-Commerce goods following South Africa&#8217;s <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/coronavirus/2020/05/13/covid-19-most-of-sa-to-move-to-level3lockdown-by-end-of-may/">President Cyril Ramaphosa&#8217;s comments</a> last night that certain changes to level 4 regulations will be made to expand permitted business activities in the retail and e-commerce space. For more details read Patel&#8217;s statement below&#8230;



Effective today, and subject to all applicable laws, all goods will be available for transaction through e-Commerce platforms with the exception of liquor and tobacco, which have been expressively prohibited for sale to the public during Alert Level 4. These products would be reconsidered in future when the Regulations permit their sale.



These <a href="http://www.thedtic.gov.za/wp-content/uploads/43321_14-5.pdf">gazetted directions</a> enable the sale of products through e-Commerce platforms and delivery-systems that are currently not available at retail outlets, including household appliances, electronic goods, furniture, books, music, gym products, the full range of clothing and footwear products, household utensils and others.



The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (the dtic) has been working on a plan for e-Commerce to be safely rolled out since the Alert Level 4 regulations came into effect on 1 May. The key focus of the e-Commerce directions are on the health, safety and other protocols that need to be followed by retailers, delivery personnel and customers.



&#8220;We strongly believe in the value of e-Commerce as a critical enabler to opening the economy through contactless transactions. This can reduce the movement of consumers, and the density of shoppers in retail spaces. Further it can accelerate innovation, support local manufacturing and increase access by the informal market and poorer South Africans,” Minister Patel said today.



“We are in the middle of a global pandemic that has taken hundreds of thousands of lives across the world. Protecting the lives of workers and consumers is critical as we open up the economy. We have consulted with stakeholders to get the proper health and safety protocols in place which can allow the full e-Commerce supply chain to operate safely while mitigating the risk of it becoming a vector for transmission of the coronavirus,&#8221; said Minister Patel.



The directions outline the need for hygienic workplace conditions, social distancing, the wearing of masks, regular monitoring of workers’ health and the need for sanitisation, among other health protocols.



To limit the social and economic hardship caused by the pandemic on local industries and enable consumer choice to support local producers, the directions encourage retailers to give prominence to goods manufactured in South Africa.



The directions call on retailers to provide for as many payment options as possible for consumers, especially for low income earners, so that a greater number of South Africans can take advantage of online platforms.



The directions also recognise the opportunity for spaza shops and informal traders to leverage e-Commerce as a means of selling goods.



&#8220;e-Commerce has great potential as a safe retail platform during the pandemic. We need to work together with the sector to make digital platforms an avenue which can be used by a greater number of local manufacturers, retailers and consumers to transact. We have consulted with companies in e-Commerce who have committed to give prominence to South African-made goods on their sites. This is an important step in order to limit the social and economic hardship caused by the pandemic on local industries. We encourage all consumers to buy local and support the recovery of South African manufacturing during this global pandemic,” Minister Patel said.



“Beyond the pandemic, we are likely to see a shift from traditional retailing to e-Commerce platforms. We look forward to future engagement with the sector to address how to create more jobs in the sector and retrain workers displaced by the shift to e-Commerce and to ensure that there is space for local small businesses and youth-owned enterprises as suppliers of goods and providers of digital platforms and delivery services,” he said.

COVID-19: Investing for Roubini’s Greater Depression

SA relaxes restrictions on all e-Commerce goods except liquor & tobacco, these are the details…

Report by Sam Meredith



Key Points:



<ul><li>In its closely-watched monthly report, the IEA’s outlook for oil demand showed a fall of 8.6 million barrels per day (b/d) to 91.2 million b/d this year. That’s 0.7 million b/d more than the group anticipated in its previous report.</li></ul>



<ul><li>The IEA stressed a resurgence of Covid-19 cases would constitute a “major risk factor” to oil demand.</li></ul>



<ul><li>On the supply side, it expected a “spectacular” fall of 12 million b/d this month, falling to a nine-year low of 88 million b/d.</li></ul>



The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday that market forces had “demonstrated their power” on the supply side of the <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/05/06/access-bank-bond-market-activity-to-pick-up-on-improved-oil-prices/">oil market</a> in recent weeks, but concerns remain over the potential for a second wave of Covid-19 infections.



International benchmark Brent crude traded at $29.72 a barrel on Thursday morning, up around 1.8%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate stood at $25.84, more than 2% higher.



It comes after what the IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol described as “Black April,” when the price of U.S. crude futures tumbled to around negative $40 a barrel.



Since then, the outlook has somewhat improved in energy markets and <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/05/05/could-ugandas-oil-producing-ambitions-be-boosted-by-covid-19-pandemic/">oil prices</a> have rebounded from their April lows.



“Oil production is reacting in a big way to market forces and economic activity is beginning a gradual-but-fragile recovery,” the IEA said. “However, major uncertainties remain.”



“The biggest is whether governments can ease the <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/05/13/how-african-economies-will-reawaken-from-the-covid-19-nightmare/">lockdown measures</a> without sparking a resurgence of <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/east-africa/2020/05/13/covid-19-how-the-pandemic-is-affecting-africas-free-trade-plans/">Covid-19</a> outbreaks,” the Paris-based energy agency added.



Another risk, the group said, was whether oil producers OPEC and its non-OPEC allies, sometimes referred to as OPEC+, would achieve a high level of compliance with its agreed output cuts.



“These are big questions — and the answers we get in the coming weeks will have major consequences for the oil market,” the IEA said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Demand forecast</h2>



In its closely-watched monthly report, the IEA’s outlook for oil demand showed a fall of 8.6 million barrels per day (b/d) to 91.2 million b/d this year. That’s&nbsp;0.7 million b/d more than the group anticipated in its previous report.



This projected fall of oil consumption would be the biggest demand drop in history, the IEA said.



On the supply side, it expected a “spectacular” fall of 12 million b/d this month, falling to a nine-year low of 88 million b/d.



It comes after OPEC+ agreed to curb production by a record 9.7 million b/d in May and June. OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has since said it plans to cut output by an additional 1 million b/d to 7.5 million b/d in June.



“It is on the supply side where market forces have demonstrated their power and shown that the pain of lower prices affects all producers,” the IEA said.



“We are seeing massive cuts in output from countries outside the OPEC+ agreement and faster than expected,” it added.



The IEA said output cuts from countries outside the OPEC+ agreement, such as the U.S. and Canada, meant output was 3 million b/d lower in April than at the start of the year. The group said it could be 4 million b/d lower in June, “with perhaps more to come.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Global confinement measures to fall from a recent peak</h2>



A global public health crisis has meant countries across the globe have effectively had to shut down, with many governments imposing draconian restrictions on the daily lives of billions of people.



The restrictions, which have created an unprecedented demand shock in energy markets, are expected to result in the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s.



To date, more than 4.3 million people have contracted the coronavirus, with 297,226 deaths worldwide, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.



Some countries have sought to slowly ease lockdown measures, allowing some shops and factories to reopen.



The IEA said the gradual relaxation of restrictions was helping demand in energy markets. It estimated that the number of people living under some form of confinement measures at the end of May would drop to 2.8 billion worldwide, down from a recent peak of 4 billion.



However, the group stressed a resurgence of Covid-19 cases would constitute a “major risk factor” to oil demand.



This article was first published on CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/14/oil-iea-warns-of-demand-risk-from-second-wave-of-coronavirus-cases.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/14/oil-iea-warns-of-demand-risk-from-second-wave-of-coronavirus-cases.html</a> and is republished with its permission.



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

COVID-19: South Africa eases lockdown to revive battered economy

A second wave of COVID-19 will have ‘major consequences’ for the oil market, IEA warns

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; Administrators at state-owned South African Airways (SAA) will not sell assets for an interim period without involving the government, a memorandum signed by one of the administrators and the public enterprises ministry showed.



The memorandum, which was seen by Reuters, also said the administrators and the ministry had agreed that the objective of SAA’s bankruptcy protection process was to have a restructured SAA or a new company with no reliance on public finances.



A public enterprises ministry spokesman confirmed the memorandum was an authentic document.



The administrators were not immediately available for comment.



SAA’s administrators, appointed in December to try to rescue the firm, have said previously that a wind-down or liquidation of the loss-making airline were likely outcomes.



Senior officials at the public enterprises ministry have criticised the administrators for not coming up with a “business rescue plan” for SAA sooner and recently hired an aviation consultancy to advise them.



The “interim period” during which the administrators will not sell assets without consulting the ministry lasts until June 30 at the latest, the memorandum said.



SAA has not made a profit since 2011 and has received bailouts worth more than 20 billion rand ($1.1 billion) over the past three years. It is running low on cash after the coronavirus pandemic forced it to halt all commercial passenger flights and the government told the administrators it would not provide further funding.



($1 = 18.4902 rand)



(Reporting by Alexander Winning; Editing by Chris Reese and Leslie Adler)



This article was first published on Reuters Africa <a href="https://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKBN22Q0W6-OZABS">https://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKBN22Q0W6-OZABS</a> and is republished with its permission.



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

ArcelorMittal South Africa fined R3.64 million over hydrogen sulfide emissions

Memorandum shows SAA administrators will not sell assets without involving govt

Ramaphosa tests negative for coronavirus as South Africa to begin lockdown

CR-lockdown

COVID-19: Most of SA to move to level 3 lockdown by end of May

Kickstarting SA&#8217;s tourism businesses 



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One in 22 working South Africans is employed in the tourism sector. It directly contributes 2.9% to the country’s gross domestic product. In 2017 tourists&nbsp;spent just over half a million rand&nbsp;every minute&nbsp;or R277&nbsp;billion for the entire year in South Africa, according to Stats SA. All this has changed with COVID-19 and lockdown. The industry has been brought to a virtual standstill. But as the country has entered phase 4 of lockdown what measures and funding are in place to help kick-start the tourism industry? Is it enough? Find out on this riveting #BusinessTomorrow Zoom virtual panel discussion.



Date: 12th May 2020



Time: 2pm CAT 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1110" height="581" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Business-Tomorrow_Speakers_Facebook-and-LinkedIn_x4-1-1110x581.png" alt="" class="wp-image-370813" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Business-Tomorrow_Speakers_Facebook-and-LinkedIn_x4-1-1110x581.png 1110w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Business-Tomorrow_Speakers_Facebook-and-LinkedIn_x4-1-300x157.png 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Business-Tomorrow_Speakers_Facebook-and-LinkedIn_x4-1-768x402.png 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Business-Tomorrow_Speakers_Facebook-and-LinkedIn_x4-1-696x364.png 696w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Business-Tomorrow_Speakers_Facebook-and-LinkedIn_x4-1-1068x559.png 1068w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Business-Tomorrow_Speakers_Facebook-and-LinkedIn_x4-1.png 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 1110px) 100vw, 1110px" /></figure>



Speakers Sisa Ntshona, CEO of South African Tourism Don Scott, Owner of Tanda Tula



Tshifhiwa Tshivhengwa, CEO of Tourism Business Council of South Africa



David Frost, CEO, SATSA TOPICS COVERED



<ul><li>Funding options for B&amp;Bs, small, medium and large businesses operating in the tourism sector during times of lockdown and COVID-19</li><li>How to access the funding</li><li>Is it enough?</li><li>What measures are in place to help tourism businesses survive?</li><li>Rebuilding your tourism business for tomorrow</li></ul>

COVID-19: How to kick-start SA’s small, medium & large tourism businesses

By Miyelani Mkhabela



Covid19 an unprecedented humanitarian challenge&nbsp;for all countries. Weeks of South Africa national lockdown have given time to make a concerted effort to flatten the pandemic’s curve. South African Coronavirus pandemic spread was at 42 % and it was controlled to 4% three weeks in lockdown, which portrayed good decision making and leadership.



South African health conditions are ranked lower at&nbsp;(118th), based on World Economic Forum Global competitiveness index 2019, which is not conducive to tackling the Coronavirus pandemic. Our infrastructure and systems are not at a state to manage the complexities, we are being saved through sustainable decision making from public sector leadership at the moment.



We have observed leaders weighing up the value of life versus the value of a functional economy and trying to strike the right balance between the two, in order to ultimately protect the population from the virus, while at the same time ensuring that the economy does not suffer irreversible harm. This requires critical and analytical thinking, with high mindfulness and reflections about the life’s that can be lost overnight, when good decisions are not taken by both public and private sector leaders.



The benefits will be measured in infections avoided and in lives saved. The future incomes of those spared to continue productive working lives will be measured as part of the economic benefits realised.



Now that the attention is shifting to reopening the economy, while containing the virus, &nbsp;the challenge arises from multiple stakeholders as they are thinking for their businesses not to be wiped out from the market , while employees also want to go to work to save their jobs. South African socioeconomic imbalances are the main drivers on the context of our thinking and how we would like to do things, based on history of the country. Macroeconomic stability are lower in South Africa and our corporates and small businesses are not resilient to manage the vulnerabilities and uncertainties of Covid19.



Statistics South Africa reported that, five in six businesses surveyed experienced a drop in turnover over the reference period. 85,4% of businesses surveyed reported turnover below the normal range. Respondents in the construction, real estate and other business services, and transport industries were the most affected by lower than expected turnover.



The report further shows that 42,2% of respondents indicated that they are not confident that they have the financial resources to continue operating through the COVID-19 outbreak. When asked how long business can continue without turnover, 54,0% of respondents indicated that can survive without turnover between 1 to 3 months. The industries reporting the highest percentages of temporary closure or paused trading activity were construction, manufacturing, trade and mining. An Industrial risk mitigation is needed for winter.



 South African corporates never followed a process in reopening the economy and this will pose more macroeconomic stability challenges in the future, key industries such as Mining; Manufacturing and agriculture and it’s agroprocessing needed to quarantine workers for fourteen days; make them work for 30 days and release them for a month holiday, that will include a 14 days quarantine before going back to work as a rotating system. The industrial business continuity management approach enables the economy to keep producing while managing the complexity of Covid19 impact not to take much from the $94 billion from our top ten export products and saving the life’s of people’s or worker’s at all.



The country might be unable to maintain price stability because of future anticipated imports with high import costs that can affect the general price increases.



Business chambers are expect to provide corporates guidance to mitigate risk by introducing an industrial business continuity management reliable to avoid closing production again in between May and July 2020, by chance Coronavirus hit the nation as predicted.



Studies have shown that 40 percent of businesses struck by a serious disaster never resume operations, says Doughty. What&#8217;s more, he adds, over&nbsp;25 percent of those that do manage to reopen their doors again are so weakened that they close down permanently within three years.



Looking ahead, four considerations may shape a suitable BCM approach for South Africa



<ul><li>South African corporates mainly in Mining, Industrial Development &amp; Manufacturing and agriculture must adopt an Industrial business continuity management (BCM) approach of 14 days quarantined, 30 days work and 30 days off, rotational.</li><li>The selected industries must have a camp system to ensure no externals to the BCM teams. &nbsp;</li><li>The industrial BCM approach is a system to mitigate risks and also planning ahead should the country decides to get back to level 5 lockdown again.</li><li>Advance training is needed to South African workforce as 2020 can be a full virtual work system’s.</li></ul>



Strategy is, of course, not the only factor determining a company’s success or failure. The competence of its managerial leadership is significant as well.



Miyelani Mkhabela is an Executive Director of Antswisa Transaction Advisory Services.

miyelani mkhabela

COVID19: How we can manage business to save lives and the economy – opinion.

President Ramaphosa should be highly commended for his decisive leadership and rapid action at the start of the coronavirus crisis. The response from government at that time is precisely what anyone could have hoped for – following consultation with medical experts and with due consideration to scientific analysis and global best practice, a strict lockdown was implemented in order to stem the spread of the disease. This was a brave decision given that so much was unknown about this virus at the time, however concern is rapidly growing around the severity and duration of the lockdown, particularly as new data and insights into this virus emerge.



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The stark reality is that South Africa simply cannot afford an extended lockdown period. We do not have the financial muscle deployed by developed nations to mitigate the negative economic consequences of an extended lockdown, especially following more than a decade of rampant looting of state resources. There also seems to be an automatic assumption that big business will bear the brunt of the economic crisis – we are expected to keep paying salaries, to keep paying taxes (although deferred to assist with immediate cashflow challenges), to keep paying rentals, and to keep servicing loans. How is that possible when we are not allowed to generate revenue? Business has been forced to navigate a torrid operating environment over the past decade and many have experienced significant capital erosion. An extended lockdown period will be the final nail in many coffins and we’re already witnessing the agonising demise of some of South Africa’s best-known companies. If this trend continues, there will be little left to save by September.



It may seem callous to call for a return to business when it may result in further infections and deaths, however this is not a case of prioritising profits over lives. If SA hopes to rebuild any form of economy following this pandemic, we will need a strong and cooperative business sector. Government can neither manage this crisis on their own nor rebuild the economy and create jobs following it. However, the long-term sustainability and needs of big business is conspicuously absent from the current presiding narrative.



It would be expected that the medical professionals advising government would be biased toward the preservation of life and whilst their perspective is invaluable, it needs to be balanced with a view toward the long-term prosperity of our nation. The latest research and statistical analysis indicates that far more people may lose their lives as a result of the humanitarian crisis created by the lockdown than from the virus itself. The concern at this stage therefore goes far beyond business sustainability but also extends to our national ability to maintain social order and mitigate the catastrophic impacts of the lockdown. Business has a duty of care and stewardship toward the society in which we operate but we cannot exercise that duty if our voices are not heard or our sustainability concerns addressed.



The unfortunate truth is that there are many things that kill South Africans every year, not least of which is TB – a completely curable disease that kills approximately 3000 South Africans every month (compared to 161 CV-19 deaths during the past two months). A tragic consequence of the attention being focused on this novel disease, is the stigma that inevitably follows it, and there are now reports of TB and HIV patients who have stopped visiting local clinics to collect their TB and HIV medications, for fear of being stigmatised as COVID-19 cases. Whilst the coronavirus might kill you, TB will kill you if left untreated. If the intention is really to save lives, there are numerous initiatives that could do that without destroying the entire economy.



It is still completely unknown how severely South Africa may be impacted by COVID-19. Everything that’s been done to-date has been based on modelled projections of what could happen. Those models are based on data from other countries which are significantly different to South Africa. We simply don’t know if our climate, National Routine Immunisation Schedule, or any other factor may have a mitigating effect. What is clear is that the actual death rate has been substantially lower than previously predicted. The claim that this was because of the severity of the lockdown seems unlikely, as it is fairly apparent that social distancing is not being adhered to in most parts of the country with extensive queueing and crowding happening every day as an increasingly desperate populace attempts to collect grants or secure a meal.



The data being disseminated globally, and which likely informs the thinking of our national advisors, is also horribly skewed in order to support a particular narrative. Whilst total death rates are constantly updated and serve to strike fear into our hearts, it has now emerged that less than 3% of all deaths in the USA and Italy could be directly attributed to COVID-19. The other 97% of patients already had at least one severe co-morbidity which may have resulted in death anyway. Whilst 270&nbsp;000 people have died from COVID-19 globally (including the 97% who had pre-existing conditions), it may surprise you to learn that around 18 million die every year from cardiovascular diseases (albeit non-communicable) and 1.2 million from the worst infectious disease, tuberculosis (TB). It begs the question as to whether the global response, based on projections of a worst-case scenario, has been proportionate to the actual risk and observed impacts to-date.



It is expected that a vaccine, if it is even possible to create one, will take at least another 18 months. There is no country that will be able to enforce a lockdown for that long. Lockdowns will not eradicate the virus, so we already have to accept that countries will start opening their economies while this virus is still around. Given that we are not investing in new healthcare infrastructure that requires long build times, we have to accept that we are as prepared as we can be for the inevitable spike in cases. There is no point in delaying the inevitable any longer whilst the economy crumbles and our people starve.



Government urgently needs to engage business as partners in this crisis. A key issue with respect to a continued lockdown is the extent to which testing has been done. With relatively few tests completed and a slowing of the government testing rate, we do not have a sufficiently broad and deep data set to understand how and where the disease is spreading in the country. In the absence of such data, a national lockdown becomes the only blunt instrument at the disposal of government to curtail the spread of the infection. Allow business to return and shift the responsibility of testing every employee onto the private sector – it is in the interests of business to ensure we have healthy employees and the exponential growth in the data set will be invaluable for government decision-making.



With some questionable decisions being made and confidence in government waning &#8211; the obscure National Command Council and its lack of transparency around regulatory decisions has not helped in that regard – it is very quickly approaching a situation where large-scale State violence will be required in order to enforce the lockdown regulations. This is perhaps why the decision was taken to deploy more than 73&nbsp;000 additional soldiers in our streets. Given our history in this country and our hard-fought democracy, can we really accept that more people may die from hunger and State violence to enforce the lockdown, than may actually die from the virus?



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

Here’s how to apply for SA’s COVID-19 loan guarantee scheme

Op-Ed: South African businesses call for urgent end to lockdown

By Andrew Lapping, Chief Investment Officer at Allan Gray



As South Africans, we want our country to prosper and the quality of life for all those living within our borders to improve. Millions live in total poverty and rely on family or intermittent work to get by: life is tough, and often short, as malnutrition and hardship take their toll. The most effective way to lift people out of poverty and improve quality of life is through education and economic growth.&nbsp;



I am concerned that our government’s lockdown approach and the subsequent economic hardship inflicted on our people will cost more lives than it can save. I realise this is a controversial statement in a context where people are very fearful and understandably concerned about their health and the wellbeing of their families. An effective government must make difficult decisions that involve trade-offs and cost-benefit analysis. I am not saying we should trade lives for economic growth; I am saying we must consider how we can save as many lives as possible and give better lives to as many South Africans as possible with our limited resources.&nbsp;



President Cyril Ramaphosa’s initial lockdown decision was justified to buy time in order to gather our health resources and prepare our hospitals. It was never meant to be a strategy to eliminate the COVID-19 virus – this is an impossibility. The idea behind lockdown is that the same number of people get ill, but the infections are spread over a longer time in an effort not to overwhelm the health system. Our government’s lockdown strategy has morphed into something else entirely.&nbsp;



As new information emerges, it seems the virus mortality rate is substantially less than many feared, and many of the more alarmist predictions that led to lockdowns across the globe have proven to be flawed. The government must absorb this information, particularly given the youthful South African population.



There are two important questions:



<ul><li>How many COVID-19 fatalities can be avoided through the lockdown?</li><li>What is the economic, and therefore human, cost of the lockdown?&nbsp;</li></ul>



I will not go into detail on the potential number of lives saved by the lockdown. There is a great deal of information available* that indicates the lives saved by this strategy will be minimal unless the lockdown means the number of infections can be supressed until a vaccine becomes available. Data indicates the mortality rate for those below 70 years of age is less than 0.2%; only 2.9% of South Africa’s population is older than 70. Furthermore, lockdowns or a lack thereof, seem to make little difference to the total number of cases a country experiences. It sounds tragic and defeatist, but it is not possible to make the virus disappear through lockdown, particularly in a country like South Africa.&nbsp;



Economic and human costs are two sides of the same coin. Studies indicate that mortality rates double with job losses. A smaller economy means fewer resources to allocate to healthcare and education in future. National Treasury thinks up to seven million people could lose their jobs. This could lead to tens of thousands of additional deaths.&nbsp;



The stimulus package outlined by the government is R500bn. SARS thinks tax collection could fall by R250bn this year as a result of the shutdown.&nbsp;Given government reallocations, this means additional debt of&nbsp;approximately R500bn in a single year. The economic damage will linger, tax collections are unlikely to recover to previous levels for years to come. The&nbsp;R50bn interest bill on this additional debt burden means&nbsp;R50bn less to spend on education, healthcare or other services – not just in 2020, but in perpetuity.&nbsp;



An extreme worst-case scenario for South Africa is 150&nbsp;000 COVID-19 deaths (most models indicate worst-case scenarios of 50 000). This is based on 50% of people contracting the virus with a 0.5% fatality rate. (A more likely worst case is a 0.2% mortality rate of 50% of the population, which is 60 000). This is a huge number of deaths and a great tragedy. Let’s assume the lockdown manages to reduce the number of fatalities by 50% by supressing the illness until a vaccine is discovered: This would be an incredible success. 75 000 lives would be saved. The direct cost per life saved in this scenario is R6.6 million; indirect costs will be far greater. I know this puts a price on human life but, unfortunately, this is what government has to do every day when allocating resources. On&nbsp; the other end of the spectrum, if the disease can’t be stopped, and a vaccine is not discovered, then almost no lives will be saved from COVID, but we will have destroyed the economy, increased government debt by R500bn, and lost a great number of lives through higher mortality not related to COVID. South Africa’s 2020 budget called for healthcare spending of R229bn and police expenditure of R221bn: small amounts in comparison.



Sadly, because South Africa is a poor country, we have a very high mortality rate, and therefore low life expectancy. 410 000 South Africans die from natural causes each year, including 37 000 people from TB and 32 000 from diabetes. In addition, 15 000 die in road accidents and 21 000 are murdered. These deaths are equally tragic and perhaps even more so as they are often preventable.&nbsp;



Unlike Europe, South Africa has a limited social security net and an informal economy. Many people have no savings and have lost their livelihood with the lockdown. Hunger is an immediate reality. Malnourished children are disadvantaged for the remainder of their lives due to stunting. The government provides a child grant, but there are millions of immigrant children who have no access to this grant.&nbsp;



Just as economic growth and prosperity save lives, economic destruction and poverty cost lives.&nbsp;



So why am I writing this now? Firstly, every week the lockdown continues, the economic cost compounds. Since the lockdown was enacted six weeks ago, I have urged government to consider the full picture, including the human and economic costs of their decisions, and I have provided them with balanced data. I have detailed how this data indicates the lockdown strategy is tragically flawed. We can no longer afford to blame “the virus”, when the vast majority of the job losses and suffering is the consequence of a strategy that has not fully accounted for the human cost of the lockdown on the economy. I hope that in making this commentary I am contributing to a heightened awareness of the issues, not emotion, underpinning this discourse.



Secondly, it is to reiterate how we think about managing your portfolios against this backdrop. We all have our views on what is the right or wrong strategy for government. However, most importantly for us as investors, we must deal with the situation as it is, and invest your funds accordingly to protect capital and maximise long-term returns.



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

Op-Ed: Counting the economic cost of South Africa’s lockdown

By Emma Rumney



JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – The expansion of South Africa’s auto industry is central to the government’s economic development strategy but the coronavirus crisis has forced carmakers into survival mode and could push ambitious growth plans out of reach.



Industry officials say the government needs to defer some tax payments for the auto industry and relax the criteria for investment incentives and allowances, or the pandemic could deal the sector a permanent blow.



Before the crisis, the government had crafted a plan to supercharge the sector to help revive the country’s struggling economy and form a beachhead for expansion within Africa, the world’s last major untapped market for new cars. [nL8N21S590]



But a five-week lockdown has brought a manufacturing and retail industry that accounts for almost 7% of South Africa’s gross domestic product and 30% of its manufacturing output to a virtual standstill.



“Those plans will be impacted massively,” said Mike Mabasa, chief executive of the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA). “Particularly for the short to medium term, that plan is completely out of the window.”



South Africa has put its so-called automotive masterplan at the heart of attempts to revive growth through industrialisation after years of stagnation and to bring unemployment down from almost 30%.



The plan aims to boost growth and create jobs by more than doubling the industry’s annual production to 1.4 million vehicles by 2035 and raising the proportion of auto components made locally to 60% from 39%.



The new scheme comes after a series of auto industry development plans and will be supported by investment and tax incentives that have been in place in some form for years.



They include a tax-free cash grant starting at 20% of the value of qualifying investments, rising to 25% for component makers, and a tax perk related to vehicle production, known as the vehicle assembly allowance.



SCANT RESPONSE



Mabasa said NAAMSA has asked the government to relax the minimum plant production capacity threshold of 50,000 cars a year needed for the investment incentive as carmakers believe it’s too stringent given the fallout from the crisis.



As part of series of requests on behalf of the industry, NAAMSA has also asked the government to use 2019 production numbers and targets for 2020’s vehicle assembly allowance, as output is likely to take a major hit this year.



The sector had some relief with the easing of the country’s lockdown on May 1 as it allowed auto manufacturers to return to 50% capacity. But it has had scant response from the government to its calls for specific financial help, besides requests for more information.



The Department of Trade and Industry did not respond to requests for comment.



Most of South Africa’s automakers referred Reuters to NAAMSA for comment.



NAAMSA represents 41 firms – including BMW, Ford, Mercedes-Benz, Isuzu, Nissan, Toyota and Volkswagen &lt;VOWG_p.DE&gt; – which make some 600,000 vehicles a year in South Africa and export about 65% of them.



Mercedes-Benz South Africa said it was not possible to predict the impact of COVID-19 on the 2035 industry targets.



“We have constructive relationships with our key stakeholders in suppliers and the government, and are confident that we will be able to find solutions to maintain the competitiveness of the automotive manufacturing sector,” its corporate affairs manager, Thato Mntambo, told Reuters.



SMALL FIRMS VULNERABLE



NAAMSA’s Mabasa warned that if carmakers struggle for liquidity in the crisis they may be unable to fulfil export orders, worth $9 billion a year across the industry. Local component makers focused on autos could also suffer badly.



Industry officials said the damage could be permanent and open the way for upcoming rivals such as Morocco and more established centres like Thailand to steal market share.



Andrew Kirby, chief executive of Toyota South Africa, said last month that the risk to the country’s role in global auto industry supply chains stemmed mostly from the vulnerability of its smaller component manufacturers.



If either vehicle makers or parts manufacturers cannot deliver their products, international customers will rapidly take their business elsewhere, industry officials said.



Renai Moothilal, executive director of the National Association of Automotive Component and Allied Manufacturers, said there was a strong possibility smaller firms would not survive and that would be disastrous for the government’s drive to boost local output and double employment in the sector.



He said levers the government could pull included levy waivers and support for utility and wage bills, but without help it was not hard to see how an industry that has already lost much of its business case might contract rather than expand.



“Once global companies move export contracts, and invest in tools of production in another destination, the costs sunk into that move make it improbable that they would want to bring it back to South Africa,” Moothilal said.



HITTING RESET BUTTON



NAAMSA’s Mabasa said the overseas headquarters of some local component manufacturers had already indicated they could shift production to divisions outside South Africa.



About 90% of the business of one local supplier, SP Metal Forgings (SPF), is in the automotive sector. Chief executive Ken Manners said the initial three-week lockdown alone had probably cost it 12% to 15% of annual turnover.



Another local component supplier, Pressure Die Castings (PDC), said it was expecting to lose 15% of its turnover for at least three months from the start of the lockdown.



“If we were only in (auto) manufacturing, we probably would have closed the company,” said Graham Smith, managing director of PDC, which supplies components to several industries.



The car sector will benefit from some economy-wide tax measures already announced, such as deferred payments on a carbon tax, but the demands on South Africa’s strained public finances are huge, with many key industries in trouble.



With the country’s debt rating now firmly in junk territory and an economic contraction inevitable, there are questions over how it will even pay for measures already announced.



Meanwhile, the risk of a return to a more expansive lockdown looms and demand for vehicles at home and abroad has plummeted.



IHS Markit senior analyst Walt Madeira said car production will fall too. It forecasts global light vehicle sales will drop to 69.6 million units this year from 89.7 million in 2019, with a 20% decline in South Africa. (https://tmsnrt.rs/2WbOIfb)



And any change of tack by carmakers at the top of the production pyramid will ripple through the industry.



“It’s like pushing a big reset button and nobody is quite sure what that means,” SPF’s Manners said. “It’s very worrying in terms of what our businesses are going to look like in six months.”



(Reporting by Emma Rumney; Editing by David Clarke)



This article was first published on Sharenet <a href="https://www.sharenet.co.za/views/views-article.php?views-article=414382">https://www.sharenet.co.za/views/views-article.php?views-article=414382</a> and is republished with its permission.



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

SA’s auto industry ambitions threatened by COVID-19

By Tim Cocks, Shafiek Tassiem



JOHANNESBURG, May 6 (Reuters) &#8211; Most visitors wanting to see big game in Africa jet in from faraway places, so when the new <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/05/05/covid-19-bites-into-sas-tax-revenue/">coronavirus</a> <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/news/2020/05/05/covid-19-sa-based-airline-comair-enters-business-rescue/">grounded flights</a> and put the world into lockdown, the legendary African safari died.



But for South African company WildEarth — which brings virtual safaris to your living room via a camera that their guides drive around in an open top vehicle — it is boom time.



“We’ve seen a dramatic rise in our viewership of our live safaris,” founder Graham Wallington told Reuters. “A fivefold increase in the first two weeks in March.”



Wallington said they are currently attracting up to 3 million viewers a month, with an individual virtual safari hooking in as many as 200,000 at their most watched.



Twice a day, viewers can watch whatever animals the guides spot as they zoom around game reserves — they’ve filmed 200 spots across east and southern Africa since founding it in 2006. A 24-hour camera perched over a watering hole in South Africa’s Djuma Game Reserve also shows live images of whatever comes there to drink.



Highlights include a pack of jackals and African wild dogs fighting over a kudu carcass, a leopard cub jumping out of a tree, a mother cheetah playing with her kids and close encounters with elephants, hippos, lions, baboons and giraffes.



In all, the guides narrate the trials of the animals as they follow them around.



The footage is free to access. WildEarth makes revenue from selling premium video to broadcasters, from merchandise and a small amount of advertising, Wallington said, declining to give figures on turnover.



The main benefit for conservation efforts is that the videos are “making people fall in love with nature,” he said.



“They start seeing those animals as individual beings. That is the moment that the viewer empathises,” he said.



Whether it is commutes to work, long-haul business travel or sightseeing, the COVID-19 shutdown has a lot of people thinking about whether they need to always rush from place to place, or whether a virtual interaction would sometimes do just fine.



Wallington said the crisis had created “a real opportunity for people to generate money by creating virtual experiences.”



From an environmental point of view, it also cuts back on carbon emitted by flights, and could help popular spots, like East Africa’s Serengeti, recover from over-tourism.



“If our mission was just to bring more and more tourists, we would destroy the thing we want to save,” he said.



In the coming weeks, they plan to start paid-for private tours with currently out-of-work guides via a Zoom video call.



(Editing by Alexandra Hudson)



This article was first published on Reuters Africa <a href="https://af.reuters.com/article/southAfricaNews/idAFL8N2CM3LB">https://af.reuters.com/article/southAfricaNews/idAFL8N2CM3LB</a> and is republished with its permission.



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

COVID-19: Liven up your lockdown routine with SA’s ‘virtual safaris’

JSE-listed airline, <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/02/27/comair-ceo-on-covid-19-impact-on-business/">Comair</a>, has announced the group will enter business rescue to safeguard the interests of the company and its stakeholders after the <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/05/04/covid-19-lockdowns-when-is-the-right-time-to-reopen-economies/">COVID-19 crisis</a> disrupted the implementation of a turnaround plan.



In its H1, FY20 results Comair reported a half-year loss of R564 million. Although revenue grew by 3%, this was reportedly not enough to offset cost increases of 14% resulting from significantly higher fleet and maintenance costs.



Read the full statement below:



Comair enters business rescue in response to unprecedented circumstances resulting from Covid-19



&#8211; Move aims to restructure the airline as a sustainable business



Tuesday, 5 May 2020: Listed airline company, Comair, today announced the group will enter business rescue to safeguard the interests of the company and its stakeholders after the Covid-19 crisis disrupted the implementation of a turnaround plan.



Comair CEO, Wrenelle Stander, said the company, which reported a half-year loss of R564 million for H1 F20, faced an unprecedented situation following the Covid-19 lockdown.



“While we had started making good progress to fix the financial situation six months ago, the crisis has meant we have not been able to implement it as we intended.



“We completely understand and support the government’s reasons for implementing the lockdown, however as a result we have not been able to operate any flights. Now that the phased lockdown has been extended the grounding is likely to endure until October or even November. These extraordinary circumstances have completely eroded our revenue base while we are still obliged to meet fixed overhead costs. The only responsible decision is to apply for business rescue.”



In terms of the lockdown Comair was required to stop flying on 26 March and has not operated any passenger services since. The Covid-19 crisis has also severely affected the global airline industry. A number of carriers have gone out of businesses. Others such as Virgin Australia and Air Mauritius have implemented restructuring processes, similar to business rescue.



“Comair remains solvent and an important contributor to the South African economy. This is a necessary process to ensure a focussed restructuring of the company takes place as quickly as possible so we can take to the skies again as a sustainable business and play our part in the county’s airline industry,” says Stander.



Shaun Collyer and Richard Ferguson have been appointed as the joint business rescue practitioners with effect from 5 May 2020.



Comair was granted approval to suspend the trading of its shares on the JSE with immediate effect. The business rescue practitioners will provide shareholders and all other stakeholders with further updates throughout the process.



The business rescue process will build on the turnaround plan that Comair management was already implementing. It aims to preserve cash, cuts costs, dispose of non-performing assets and strengthen the balance sheet. The Section 189A process, which was part of this plan and that began on 23 March, will continue.



The business rescue practitioners will work with the management team and the board towards Comair resuming operations in accordance with all regulatory requirements, including the health protocols to prevent the spread of Covid-19. Stander said Comair will resume its operations in accordance with government directives and will continue to engage with government to accelerate the opening of the airline industry.



“The health and welfare of our customers, crew and the public is the overriding priority and we will only operate when we are sure we can do so safely.”



Customers with existing bookings will be able to rebook flights within 12 months of their departure date. There will be no charge for any changes made before 1 November 2020.



“Through this process we intend to right-size our operations to be more efficient, agile and customer-centric. This includes, but is not limited to, reconfiguring our network and fleet mix, reviewing portfolios and joint ventures, increased digitisation of the business and new product development and delivery,” says Stander.



“We are confident that with the work we’ve already done and the support of our stakeholders we will get through this process and will be a more sustainable business, better positioned to continue serving the flying public and contributing to the South African economy.”



The business rescue practitioners will contact all stakeholders and suppliers to plan the way ahead in accordance with the processes set out in the Companies Act.



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

International travel for South Africans is now allowed, this is how it will work

COVID-19: SA based airline Comair enters business rescue

South Africa on Friday entered <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Risk-Adjusted-Strategy-Regulations-29-April-2020.pdf">phase 4 of lockdown</a>, after being in phase 5 for 35 days. As part of phase 4, 1.5 million people will be allowed to return to work and there will be a one-off movement of people. Below is a statement from the Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs on how this process will work&#8230;



The Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (CoGTA), Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, has in terms of section 27(2)(f) of the Disaster Management Act, 2002 (Act No. 57 of 2002) and after consultation with relevant Cabinet members, issued directions in the schedule relating to the once off movement of persons in line with Regulation 16 (5), which provides that:



a) Any person who was not at their place of residence, or work before the lockdown period and who could not travel between provinces, metropolitan and district areas during the lockdown, will be permitted, on a once-off basis, to return to their places of residence or work and will be required to stay in such place until the end to the Alert Level 4”.



FOR MORE ON COVID-19 VISIT: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a> 



The purpose of these directions is to regulate the once-off movement of persons who were not at their place of residence or work before the lockdown period and who could not travel between provinces, metropolitan and district areas during the lockdown, and are permitted in terms of regulation 16(5), on a once-off basis, to return to their places of residence or work.



READ: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Risk-Adjusted-Strategy-Regulations-29-April-2020.pdf">This is how phase 4 will work in SA</a>



People who wish to make use of the provision in terms of regulation are permitted to do so during the period 1 May 2020 to 7 May 2020.



For this purpose, there will be no need for people to obtain and produce a permit in order to cross provincial, metropolitan or district boundaries.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The security structures will however put measures in place to ensure those who make use of the window will do so once-off, and one-way only.



Minister urges all South Africans to recognise the unprecedented crisis facing the country due to COVID-19 and to use the opportunity provided for once off travel responsibly by still adhering to the lockdown regulations.



The Minister has also urges South Africans to unite and work together to defeat this pandemic.



Link to the Directions: <a href="https://bit.ly/2ycONXW">https://bit.ly/2ycONXW</a>

COVID-19: How one-off movements will work in phase 4 of SA’s lockdown

In order to help <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/coronavirus/2020/04/25/these-are-the-sectors-sa-is-considering-reopening-in-phase-4/">small and medium enterprises</a>, support the <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/04/24/sa-economy-to-begin-a-gradual-reopening-on-1-may/">economy</a> and save jobs, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and the National Treasury are partnering with members of the Banking Association South Africa (BASA) to roll out a <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/04/24/is-r800bn-stimulus-enough-for-markets/">R200 billion Covid-19 loan scheme</a>.



The scheme will allow qualifying <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/article/2020/04/28/how-10000-covid-19-hit-companies-blundered-and-missed-out-on-millions/">businesses</a> to apply for loan funding from their primary bank for three months of operational costs, such as salaries, rent and supplier payments.



The statement below provides more details:



Covid-19 Loan Scheme for Small and Medium Enterprises



The R200 billion Covid-19 loan scheme is the outcome of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and the National Treasury partnering with members of the Banking Association South Africa (BASA) to help small and medium enterprises, support the economy and save jobs. The scheme will allow qualifying businesses to apply for loan funding from their primary bank for three months of operational costs, such as salaries, rent and supplier payments. All loans will be subject to bank credit approvals.



The Covid-19 loan scheme is a special credit facility that is being disbursed on behalf of SARB and National Treasury, using the infrastructure of the banking industry. Risk-sharing mechanisms in the scheme balance the need for government to support qualifying businesses, with ensuring the continued safety and soundness of the banking system. Similar schemes have been rolled out in over 50 countries in recent weeks.



Funding for these Covid-19 loans will be provided to banks by the SARB through a special financing mechanism. Any losses on the loans will first be offset against any margins earned on a bank’s portfolio of Covid-19 loans. Losses thereafter will be offset against a guarantee fee payable to the National Treasury by banks. Any further losses thereafter will be shared, with the first six percent being absorbed by the banks and the net balance absorbed by the National Treasury. Each bank will sign a bilateral agreement with the SARB, covering their participation in the scheme. The SARB will in turn contract with the National Treasury.



The scheme – which will start with an initial R100 billion &#8211; will be launched as soon as all the necessary legal agreements are in place. All parties are working around the clock to implement the scheme as quickly as possible after these agreements are finalised. While the finer details of the Covid-19 loan scheme and the related application process are still being finalised, the following principles will apply:



<ul><li>The Covid-19 loan scheme is a commercial arrangement and requires a credit application process, through which banks must evaluate if the business will likely be able to service all its commitments after the pandemic and lockdown. Banks are not obliged to extend Covid-19 loans and business owners may be required to sign surety.</li></ul>



<ul><li>The size of the Covid-19 loan will be calculated on the three-month funding requirement of certain operating expenses of the business, as approved by the bank, to be disbursed in monthly tranches.</li></ul>



<ul><li>Banks will not profit from the provision of the SARB guarantee. However, the administrative cost of facilitating the loans and the cost of capital will be recovered.</li></ul>



<ul><li>In the event of default, the Covid-19 loan would be subordinated to all other creditor claims.</li></ul>



<ul><li>The repayment of shareholder loans or dividends, using these funds, is expressly prohibited.</li></ul>



To qualify for the standardised Covid-19 loan, businesses, including sole proprietors, must inter alia:



<ul><li>Have a turnover under R300 million per annum</li></ul>



<ul><li>Be in good standing with their bank, prior to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic</li></ul>



<ul><li>Be registered with the tax authority</li></ul>



<ul><li>Have insufficient normal borrowing capacity to fully fund its monthly operating expenses</li></ul>



<ul><li>Be adversely impacted by the lockdown.</li></ul>



Companies that may qualify for a Covid-19 loan, are advised to contact their primary bank. The launch date of the scheme and further details are expected to be announced shortly.



During the initial phases of the scheme, some processing backlogs will be inevitable. Banks undertake to work though these as quickly as possible and ask clients to be understanding of the challenges our staff have operating in the lockdown.



The R800 billion economic relief and stimulus package announced by President Cyril Ramaphosa and the Minister of Finance, Tito Mboweni, is an urgent and necessary part of saving lives and livelihoods, as the country unites to curb the pandemic. It will do much to alleviate poverty, hunger and uncertainty in our communities.



As important as they are, these emergency measures are not a sustainable solution to the devastating social and economic damage caused by the pandemic. We call on the President to urgently implement the ‘third phase’ of his economic recovery strategy: infrastructure development, structural reforms and sustainable transformation, to kickstart inclusive economic growth, create jobs and boost consumer and investor confidence. We need to rebuild a new and better economy for all South Africans. We hope these measures will be reflected in the extraordinary budget, which is yet to be announced. It is essential for both lives and livelihoods that we safely and fully reopen the economy as soon as possible.



Issued on behalf of The Banking Association South Africa



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

How SA’s R200bn Covid-19 loan scheme for small businesses works

Our combined fiscal and policy measures are above R800 billion, says Tito Mboweni SA finance minister that will be rapidly rolled out.



&#8220;Time is of the essence&#8217;, says Mboweni.



Government unveils a package of tax relief and welfare measures to ease the economic pain of COVID-19. 



Mboweni said the government would pour billions of Rand into social security payments along with a raft of tax relief measures to help companies with their cash flow.



VAT returns would be fast tracked, says Mboweni, there would be a holiday on the skills development levy; deferments on tax payments; a deferment of the new carbon tax until October 31; a number of other corporate taxes outlined in the budget will be put on hold.



Mboweni also said billions would be poured into the social security system to help poor South Africans. There would be R50 billion put into the system it can pay everyone more for everything from child support to care givers.



The finance minister said the government was tightening its fiscal belt to ensure it had the money to help South Africa weather COVID-19.



&#8220;We have looked at the budget and anything that can be postponed will be postponed. We are putting all the money we can into resolving this crisis,&#8221; says Mboweni.

PRETORIA, SOUTH AFRICA - MARCH 16: Finance minister, Tito Mboweni briefs the media on the details of government interventions in various sectors of the departmental portfolios on COVID-19 at DIRCO Media Centre.

106468131-1585649490275gettyimages-1207457483

COVID-19: Mboweni says SA government to put R800 billion to help ease pandemic

South Africa&#8217;s President Cyril Ramaphosa on Thursday evening announced the gradual phasing out of the country&#8217;s <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/coronavirus/2020/04/09/sa-extends-lockdown-by-two-weeks-until-end-april/">35-day lockdown</a> based on five-phases.



In his address to the nation Ramaphosa said the country is currently on phase five. 



He said from Friday 1st May the country will move to phase four. 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="1024" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/PHASES-1024x1024.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-369075" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/PHASES-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/PHASES-300x300.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/PHASES-150x150.jpg 150w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/PHASES-768x768.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/PHASES-696x696.jpg 696w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/PHASES-1068x1068.jpg 1068w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/PHASES.jpg 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



&#8220;When we move to phase four our borders will remain closed to international travel, except for the repatriation of South African nationals and foreign citizens,&#8221; he said. Adding that no travel will be allowed between provinces except for the transportation of goods and exceptional circumstances such as funerals.



READ: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/coronavirus/2020/04/21/covid-19-sa-announces-r500bn-stimulus-package-about-10-of-gdp/">COVID-19: SA announces R500bn stimulus package; about 10% of GDP</a>



In phase four:



<ul><li>People will be able to exercise under strict conditions.</li><li>The elderly and those with underlying conditions must stay at home.</li><li>The selling of cigarettes will resume. </li><li>Bars, shebeens, conference and convention centres, entertainment venues, cinemas, theatres, and concerts will remain closed.</li><li>Concerts, sporting events, and religious, cultural and social gatherings will not be allowed until it is deemed safe for them to continue.</li></ul>



Ramaphosa added the country&#8217;s ministers will announce which industries will be impacted by phase four. 



Businesses that will be allowed to resume operations will need to do so in a phased manner, first preparing the workplace for a return to operations, followed by the return of the workforce in batches of no more than one-third, he said.



For more on COVID-19 in Africa visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>



The relevant ministers will provide details on the phased reopening of schools, Ramaphosa added. 



See below for his full statement&#8230;



STATEMENT BY PRESIDENT CYRIL RAMAPHOSA ON SOUTH AFRICA’S RESPONSE TO THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC, UNION BUILDINGS, TSHWANE



My Fellow South Africans,



It has been exactly seven weeks since the first case of the coronavirus was confirmed in our country.



Since then, all our lives have changed in fundamental ways.



As a nation we have been forced to take aggressive action against an invisible enemy that threatened our lives and the lives of our loved ones.



We have been forced to adapt to a new way of living, in a short space of time.



As we enter the fifth week of an unprecedented nation-wide lockdown – and as we look to the future – we should remember why we are here.



The novel coronavirus, which was identified in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December last year, has spread rapidly across the world.



To date, over 2.6 million confirmed cases have been reported worldwide.



The actual number of people infected is likely to be far higher.



The coronavirus causes the disease known as COVID-19, a respiratory illness for which humans currently have no immunity and for which there is no known cure.



The coronavirus is passed from person to person in small droplets from the nose and mouth that can be transmitted by direct contact, on surfaces we touch or when an infected person coughs or sneezes when they are close to another person.



Most infected people exhibit only mild symptoms; some do not show any symptoms at all.



But there are people who develop severe symptoms and require hospitalisation.



These are usually older people and those who suffer from underlying conditions such as heart disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and cancer.



For some of these people, COVID-19 is fatal.



Across the world, more than 185,000 people have succumbed to the disease.



Here in South Africa, at least 75 people have lost their lives.



Because the coronavirus can spread so rapidly through a population, it can overwhelm even the best-resourced health system within a matter of weeks.



This is what has occurred in many countries across the world, and it is precisely what we, as South Africa, have gone to great lengths to prevent.



Very few health systems across the world – if any – are prepared for a sudden and exponential increase in people requiring treatment for a severe respiratory illness.



As a result, if the virus spreads too quickly, there are not enough hospital beds, intensive care units, ventilators, personal protection equipment or medicine for everyone who needs them.



To make matters worse, people who are suffering from other conditions or need emergency procedures are unable to get the care they need.



And in such circumstances, many lives that could have been saved, are lost.



I am reiterating these basic facts – which by now are probably familiar to many of you – because they explain the actions we have taken to date and they inform the measures I am announcing this evening.



From the moment we declared the coronavirus pandemic to be a national disaster on Sunday 15 March, our objective was to delay the spread of the virus.



We have sought to avoid a massive surge in infections and an uncontrollable increase in the number of people needing medical care.



Our approach has been based on the principles of social distancing, restriction of movement and stringent basic hygiene practices.



By delaying the spread of the virus, we have had time to prepare our health facilities and mobilise some of the essential medical supplies needed to meet the inevitable increase in infections.



And it is in so doing, that we hope to save tens of thousands of lives.



There is clear evidence that the lockdown has been working.



Together with the other measures we have taken – such as closing our borders – and the changes in behaviour that each of us has made, the lockdown has slowed the progression of the pandemic in the country.



The World Health Organization has commended South Africa for acting swiftly and for following scientific advice to delay the spread of the virus.



Yet, while a nation-wide lockdown is probably the most effective means to contain the spread of the coronavirus, it cannot be sustained indefinitely.



Our people need to eat. They need to earn a living. Companies need to be able to produce and to trade, they need to generate revenue and keep their employees in employment.



We have accordingly decided that beyond Thursday 30 April, we should begin a gradual and phased recovery of economic activity.



We will implement a risk adjusted strategy through which we take a deliberate and cautious approach to the easing of current lockdown restrictions.



We have decided on this approach because there is still much that is unknown about the rate and manner of the spread of the virus within our population.



The action we take now must therefore be measured and incremental.



This approach is guided by the advice from scientists who have advised that an abrupt and uncontrolled lifting of restrictions could cause a massive resurgence in infections.



We cannot take action today that we will deeply regret tomorrow.



We must avoid a rushed re-opening that could risk a spread, which would need to be followed by another hard lockdown, as has happened in other countries.



We have to balance the need to resume economic activity with the imperative to contain the virus and save lives.



To achieve this, we have developed an approach that determines the measures we should have in place based on the direction of the pandemic in our country.



As part of this approach, there will be five coronavirus levels:



Level 5 means that drastic measures are required to contain the spread of the virus to save lives.



Level 4 means that some activity can be allowed to resume subject to extreme precautions required to limit community transmission and outbreaks.



Level 3 involves the easing of some restrictions, including on work and social activities, to address a high risk of transmission.



Level 2 involves the further easing of restrictions, but the maintenance of physical distancing and restrictions on some leisure and social activities to prevent a resurgence of the virus.



Level 1 means that most normal activity can resume, with precautions and health guidelines followed at all times.



To ensure that our response to the pandemic can be as precise and targeted as possible, there will be a national level and separate levels for each province, district and metro in the country.



We are currently at Level 5, which requires a full national lockdown to contain the spread of the virus.



This is the highest level of lockdown and was imposed when drastic action was necessary to curb transmission.



The National Coronavirus Command Council will determine the alert level based on an assessment of the infection rate and the capacity of our health system to provide care to those who need it.



We have undertaken a detailed exercise to classify the different parts of the economy according to the risk of transmission in that sector, the expected impact of the lockdown, the economic contribution of the sector and the effect on livelihoods.



The relevant Ministers will provide a detailed briefing on the classification of industries and how each is affected at each level.



We will give all industry bodies an opportunity to consider these details and, should they wish, to make submissions before new regulations are gazetted.



The National Coronavirus Command Council met earlier today and determined that the national coronavirus alert level will be lowered from level 5 to level 4 with effect from Friday the 1st of May.



This means that some activity will be allowed to resume subject to extreme precautions to limit community transmission and outbreaks



Some businesses will be allowed to resume operations under specific conditions.



Every business will have to adhere to detailed health and safety protocols to protect their employees, and workplace plans will be put in place to enable disease surveillance and prevent the spread of infection.



All businesses that are permitted to resume operations will be required to do so in a phased manner, first preparing the workplace for a return to operations, followed by the return of the workforce in batches of no more than one-third.



In some cases, a sector will not be able to return to full production during Level 4 while the risk of infection remains high.



These will be spelt out next week following a final round of consultations.



Businesses will be encouraged to adopt a work-from-home strategy where possible.



All staff who can work remotely must be allowed to do so.



The relevant Ministers will provide details on the process for the phased re-opening of schools and other educational institutions.



As we gradually ease the restrictions, it is necessary that many of the measures to contain the spread of the virus remain in place.



When the country moves to level 4 on 1 May:



Our borders will remain closed to international travel, except for the repatriation of South African nationals and foreign citizens.



No travel will be allowed between provinces, except for the transportation of goods and exceptional circumstances such as funerals.



Public transport will continue to operate, with limitations on the number of passengers and stringent hygiene requirements, including that all passengers must wear a face mask.



The public is encouraged to stay at home, other than for essential personal movement, doing essential work and work in sectors that are under controlled opening. People can exercise under strict public health conditions.



All gatherings, apart from funerals and for work, will remain prohibited.



Those who are elderly, and those with underlying conditions, must remain at home and take additional precautions to isolate themselves.



The sale of cigarettes will be permitted.



The range of goods that may be sold will be extended to incorporate certain additional categories. These will be detailed by the relevant Ministers.



It is important to note that several restrictions will remain in place regardless of the level of alert for as long as the risk of transmission is present:



Bars and shebeens will remain closed.



Conference and convention centres, entertainment venues, cinemas, theatres, and concerts will remain closed.



Concerts, sporting events, and religious, cultural and social gatherings will not be allowed until it is deemed safe for them to continue.



The coronavirus is spread by contact between people.



If people do not travel, the virus does not travel.



We know, for example, that just one funeral in Port St Johns and one religious gathering in Mangaung contributed to a spate of infections in their respective provinces.



From the evidence we have, we know that 75 percent of confirmed coronavirus cases are found in just six metro municipalities – Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, Cape Town, Buffalo City, EThekwini and Mangaung.



It is therefore essential that we do everything in our means to restrict the movement of people and – although it runs counter to our very nature – to reduce the contact that each of us has with each other.



Ultimately, it is our own actions, as individuals, that will determine how quickly the virus spreads.



If we all adhere to instructions and follow public health guidelines, we will keep the virus under control and will not need to reinstate the most drastic restrictions.



We can prevent the spread of coronavirus by doing a few simple things.



Wash your hands frequently with soap and water or use an alcohol based sanitiser.



Keep a distance of more than one metre between yourself and the next person, especially those who are coughing and sneezing.



Try not to touch your mouth, nose and eyes because your hands may have touched the coronavirus on surfaces.



When you cough or sneeze cover your mouth and nose with your bent elbow or a tissue, and dispose of the tissue right away.



As we begin the easing of lockdown restrictions from the beginning of May, we are calling on all South Africans to wear a face mask whenever you leave home.



Our clothing and textile industry – including many small businesses – are gearing up to produce these masks on a mass scale.



The extraordinary measures that we have put in place to combat the coronavirus pandemic have been matched by the extraordinary contributions of many South Africans.



We pay tribute to them, the nurses, the doctors, the scientists and the community screening field workers who are leading our public health response.



We are committed to ensuring that they have all the resources they need – including adequate personal protection equipment and other recognition – to undertake the work that is being asked of them.



As we slowly ease the lockdown restrictions, we are substantially and rapidly increasing our public health response.



We have already seen a huge increase in community screening and testing.



Guided by advice from the World Health Organization and the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, we have joined other African countries in placing mass screening and testing at the centre of the next phase of our response.



Earlier in the week, I announced an additional allocation of R20 billion to our health response to ensure that we have the beds, medicine, equipment and personnel required when the country experiences the peak of infections.



This evening, I also want to pay tribute to those who are providing essential services and goods – the truck, taxi, bus and train drivers; the workers on farms, in stores, at power stations, at water plants, at petrol stations, in banks and in call centres; the law enforcement officials and security personnel.



It is thanks to your efforts that we have been able to make such valuable progress in combating this pandemic.



As part of expanding this effort, I have employed over 70,000 defence force personnel to assist with various parts of our coronavirus response.



Until now, those defence force members that have been deployed have supported the South African Police Service in their responsibilities.



They will continue to do so, but they will also be providing assistance in other essential areas, such as the provision of water supply, infrastructure maintenance and health services.



This is a crucial moment in our struggle against the coronavirus.



It is a time for caution.



It is a time to act responsibly.



It is a time for patience.



There is no person who doesn’t want to return to work.



There is no company that does not want to re-open.



There is no student who does not want to return to their studies.



Yet, we are all called upon, at some time in our lives, to make great sacrifices for our own future and for the future of others.



There are times when we must endure hardship and difficulty, so that we can enjoy freedom and prosperity into the future.



During the past five weeks, we have demonstrated to the entire world what a nation can achieve with courage, determination and solidarity.



We must not give up now.



I am asking you to stay strong.



I am asking you to remain united.



Stay home, stay safe.



Thank you for all that you have done and continue to do.



May God bless South Africa and protect her people.



I thank you.

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