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Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed yesterday presented the country’s economic outlook to the parliament during which he said the economy is expected to grow by 9 per cent in 2021. However, the Premier said inflation remains a key concern. Inflation rose from 19.8 per cent in May to 24.5 per cent in June this year. Zemedeneh Negatu, Global Chairman at Fairfax joins CNBC Africa for more.

Ethiopia: Rising inflation remains key concern

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President Uhuru Kenyatta and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed yesterday opened a one-stop border post in the northern town of Marsabit efforts to boost economic ties between the two countries. The Ksh800 million border post is part of the planned Mombasa-Nairobi-Addis Ababa corridor. Political &#038;Economic Analyst, Samuel Getachew joins CNBC Africa for more.

Uhuru

Uhuru, Abiy open border post to boost Kenya-Ethiopia trade

NAIROBI/ISTANBUL (Reuters) &#8211; Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s political slogan is “medemer” &#8211; or “coming together”. But some analysts say reforms meant to unify Ethiopia have inflamed simmering ethnic and political divisions and risk unravelling Africa’s second most populous nation.



Now Ethiopian unity faces its severest test yet: since Nov. 4, the military has been battling a group that once dominated the national government &#8211; the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in the northern Tigray region.



The TPLF frames the conflict as a battle for the rights of Ethiopia’s 10 regions against a premier bent on centralising power. They say Abiy has discriminated against Tigrayans since he came to power and have referred to his rule as an “illegal, unitarist and personalistic dictatorship”.



The government denies trying to centralise control.



Three major decisions infuriated the TPLF, which dominated the governing coalition for nearly three decades until Abiy came to power in 2018: Abiy’s rapprochement with their arch-enemy, the nation of Eritrea; his replacement of an ethnically based coalition with a new national party; and the postponement of national elections.Each sparked bitter recriminations from the TPLF. The ensuing conflict has sent ripples through the region.



Ethiopia, a regional heavyweight, is home to the African Union; its security forces serve in peacekeeping missions in Somalia and South Sudan and work alongside Western allies against Islamist militants.Leenco Lata, a veteran opposition leader, said the federal system is under pressure from both sides as debate polarises between supporters of closer unity or separation. Abiy says he’s tried to work with the TPLF, but has been repeatedly rebuffed; his office published a timeline of such attempts this week.



The government says Tigrayan forces started the conflict by attacking federal troops stationed there. The TPLF have described the attack as a pre-emptive strike.



Underlying the political struggle are long-standing rivalries between Ethiopia’s 80-plus ethnic groups. Many regional leaders see Abiy’s democratic reforms as a chance to grab more power for their own group. Zemelak Ayele, a professor at Addis Ababa University, said even though citizens resented the previous repression, the TPLF might have grudging support from some regional leaders who consider it a bulwark against a more centralised government.”Even those who are ardent detractors of TPLF are not necessarily ardent supporters of the war (in Tigray),” he said. “Some might feel the federal system might be in danger if the TPLF is out of the picture.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-an-old-enmity-and-a-new-peace">AN OLD ENMITY AND A NEW PEACE</h2>



The secretive, highly militarised nation of Eritrea &#8211; often nicknamed “Africa’s North Korea” &#8211; lies along Ethiopia’s northern border. Eritrea won independence from Ethiopia in 1991 following three decades of war. Conflict over a border dispute broke out again from 1998-2000; tens of thousands died.



The TPLF spearheaded that war. They regard Eritrea as an arch-enemy.



Months after Abiy came to power, he signed a peace deal with Eritrea in 2018 and was subsequently awarded the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. Regular visits began between Abiy and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, drawing accusations from the TPLF that Abiy was “serving as a vehicle for Isaias’s desire to extract a pound of flesh for perceived wrongs”.



Billene Seyoum, Abiy’s spokeswoman, said the TPLF was trying to “internationalise the conflict” and that intelligence reports suggested the TPLF had been manufacturing Eritrean and Ethiopian army uniforms.



The TPLF has fired missiles at its capital Asmara and says Eritrea is now fighting alongside Ethiopian troops in Tigray, which Ethiopia denies.



Reuters has not been able to reach the Eritrean government for comment for two weeks.



ADVERTISEMENT



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-prosperity-party">THE PROSPERITY PARTY</h2>



After the Eritrea treaty, Abiy consolidated domestically. Last year he replaced Ethiopia’s old ruling coalition, made up of four ethnically based parties, with a single pan-Ethiopian party. Out of the four, only the TPLF refused to join.



Abiy underestimated the TPLF’s bitterness at losing power, said one Ethiopian academic.



“It is a bitter divorce and Abiy did not have a plan for a peaceful exit for TPLF,” the academic said, speaking anonymously to avoid angering the government.



Inflammatory rhetoric on both sides made Tigrayan people feel under siege, boosting support for the TPLF, he said.



Alex de Waal, a professor at Tufts University, said launching the new party so quickly may have been a miscalculation: the old coalition had become a rare forum for negotiation in a nation where political dissent often meant prison.



But Abiy was in a hurry. National elections were due in August 2020 and his new party needed to compete against a plethora of new ethnically based groups.



Then the pandemic arrived.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">DELAYED ELECTIONS</h2>



The government postponed elections. Many opposition groups reluctantly agreed, but not the TPLF. They held their regional elections in September anyway. Both sides accused each other of ignoring the constitution.



The TPLF won by a landslide. The House of Federation, a legislative body dealing with constitutional matters, voted to cut Tigray’s budget.



On Oct. 29, Tigrayan forces refused to let an Ethiopian general who flew into the regional airport leave to take up his command in the capital Mekelle.



On Nov. 4, the government reported Tigrayan soldiers attacked a base in Dansha.



The conflict had begun.



Reporting by Katharine Houreld in Nairobi and Maggie Fick in Istanbul; Editing by Alexandra Zavis and Giles Elgood

shutterstock_487433470

Analysis: How attempts to unify Ethiopia may be deepening its divides, say analysts

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The Ethiopian government has continued its military action in the northern Tigray region over the past few days, with reports of air strikes on targeted facilities. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has replaced the country’s military Chief and reshuffled the leadership of other security branches. Joining CNBC Africa for the latest Sub-Saharan Africa update is Ridle Markus, Africa Strategist at Absa Corporate &#038; Investment Banking.

Ethiopian PM replaces top military leadership as Tigray conflict worsens

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Concerned at the inefficiencies that the COVID-19 pandemic has exposed in Ethiopia, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has announced that the country is increasing its health budget by 46 per cent to respond. Economic Analyst, Samuel Getachew joins CNBC Africa for more.

Ethiopia increases health budget by 46% in response to COVID-19

<figure>
 <img decoding="async" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341884/original/file-20200615-65925-1c1kb92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&#038;q=45&#038;auto=format&#038;w=754&#038;fit=clip" />
 <figcaption>
 Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed speaking during a press conference on general elections in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
 Minasse Wondimu Hailu/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yohannes-gedamu-432503">Yohannes Gedamu</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/georgia-gwinnett-college-2416">Georgia Gwinnett College</a>

It’s two years since a surprise leadership change took place in Ethiopia. Introducing himself with a <a href="https://borkena.com/2018/04/02/ten-points-abiy-ahmed-made-in-his-speech/">historic speech</a> to the nation, the new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed preached democracy as the only future for the country of more than 110 million.

The initial reforms were breathtaking. So much so that imagining democracy became justifiable. But Abiy’s administration inherited an extraordinary set of problems. 

Apart from the challenge of democratising an authoritarian state, it had to deal with ethnic violence and conflicts. And massive internal displacement of citizens.

Two years later, the government seems to have controlled the issue of internally displaced people. Resettlement programs appear to have been mostly successful. 

And there’s been considerable progress in ensuring peace and stability. News of violence is now mostly confined to two areas where the Oromo Liberation Army operates.

Beyond domestic politics, the volatile Horn of Africa also posed major challenges to Abiy’s leadership. But Ethiopia’s former arch-rival, Eritrea, is no longer a regional adversary. 

In addition, Abiy played a major role in the Sudanese transition from chaos to some political promise. And the fact that he changed the loud silence between Somaliland and Somalia into potentially history-making meetings also deserves recognition.

But, looking back over this period, Abiy’s major achievement could be viewed as the dismantling of the 28-year-old Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front and the birth of a nationally unified political organisation, the Prosperity Party. This is not without its challenges too, however. 

These developments have reinvigorated opposition groups afresh. In particular, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, a regional political organisation that had major dominance over the old revolutionary front, has now emerged as a major political foe to Abiy’s Prosperity Party.

This poses a menace to Ethiopia’s path to reform. As a result, Ethiopia’s road to democracy and national elections, which were due to be held in August, is now facing two challenges: a global pandemic, and deteriorating relations between the Tigray regional state and the Prosperity Party, which is in charge of the federal government, and the remaining eight regions and two city administrations.

<h2>National elections</h2>

In its fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, Ethiopia has so far done a promising job. But cases continue to grow – slowly but alarmingly. 

Abiy cited the pandemic as a reason to postpone the national elections. The current administration’s five-year tenure was set to expire come September 30, 2020. Debates on the legitimacy of the government after that date have dominated national discussions.

The government proposed a number of options. One was to dissolve parliament and declare a state of emergency. Another was to request a special constitutional interpretation of the challenge. Yet another was to extend the tenure of current incumbents. 

The opposition was consulted and the issues were discussed in parliament. The decision that was finally taken was to ask for a judicial review process to provide a constitutional interpretation. These are done through the Council of Constitutional Inquiry, which then submits its recommendations to the House of the Federation for discussions and a decision.

The House of the Federation is the upper house of Ethiopia’s bicameral legislative branch. Its legislative authority is limited to powers on budgetary allocations, powers to interpret the constitution, and to safeguard the federal constitutional framework. 

Based on House’s decision, the chamber postponed the national election. 

The decision was not received well by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. The regional parliament in Tigray has since defied the federal government’s decision, and announced it will hold its own elections. 

<h2>High stakes</h2>

This decision has wide-ranging implications. By holding an election without the supervision of the National Electoral Board, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front is undermining Ethiopia’s federal constitutional system.

Going it alone is a reflection of the front’s loss of power since the demise of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front coalition. This has weakened its resolve to maintain Ethiopia’s constitutional system.

The decision poses a threat to Ethiopia’s promising democracy. It has ignited an unprecedented level of tension between the Tigray region and the federal government. If this situation deteriorates further, the country’s fledgling democracy could regress. 

So far, Abiy’s administration has ignored the threat from the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front. This could lead to undesirable repercussions. 

The federal government’s reluctance to address the crisis in Tigray might lead to renewed violence. This could in turn harm government’s response to the public health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Finally, unless addressed, the deteriorating relations between the federal government and the Tigray region could further unravel Ethiopia’s dangerously designed federal system that in any case, is in need of major revision.

For democracy to take root in Ethiopia, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front’s defiance to the country’s constitutional order must resolved.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140750/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" />

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yohannes-gedamu-432503">Yohannes Gedamu</a>, Lecturer of Political Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/georgia-gwinnett-college-2416">Georgia Gwinnett College</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/abiy-put-ethiopia-on-the-road-to-democracy-but-major-obstacles-still-stand-in-the-way-140750">original article</a>.

Abiy Ahmed put Ethiopia on the road to democracy: but he still has a lot to do, here’s why

By Victor Oladokun April 3, 2020



Two days ago, I received an urgent plea from Massimo, a good friend and a highly respected Italian journalist based in Rome. His message was simple, urgent and straight to the point.



 “Please Victor, pay attention” he urged. “This virus is not ‘just a flu’ as some still insist it is. Keep your distance. Wash your hands regularly. Don’t touch your face, eyes and mouth. Avoid crowded places where you cannot maintain the required social distance … pay attention my friend!”



Italy has given the rest of the world a tragic glimpse of what a lockdown needs to look, especially for countries that blink and fail to take action fast. Italy’s experience is an urgent wake-up call about the importance of swift and decisive action.



Massimo knows first-hand what’s at stake. A few hours earlier, he had lost a professional colleague. His country, which has a social culture very similar to Africa’s, now has more than 13,000 deaths from COVID-19. It is the highest number of fatalities anywhere in the world. And the body count is still rising.



Africa has had some lead time to learn important lessons and proactively engage&nbsp; the World Health Organization, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other multilateral institutions, to hell put containment and preventative measures in place.



While others have wasted precious early moments, some countries and cities have been exemplars of what it takes to counter the spread of COVID-19. Rwanda for example, was the first country to take swift containment actions by placing portable sinks with running water in public spaces in its capital city and backing it up with a public awareness campaign. The Governor of Lagos State, Nigeria’s commercial hub, was also quick to convert a local stadium into an isolation and recovery area. Last week, Nigeria’s President Muhamadu Buhari placed the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja, Lagos and two neighbouring States, under lockdown for two weeks. Ultimately, Nigeria with a population of 180 million, will have to lock down for an even longer period of time. 



Several other countries are following suit. But many others are woefully lagging behind. There is still an unwillingness to acknowledge that not taking decisive and painful short-term action, will have devastating long-term consequences. 



Exposing systemic weaknesses



In spite of Africa’s best efforts, more must be done. The outlook for the continent is grim unless swift proactive actions are taken. For now, the pandemic is exposing deep cracks and systemic weaknesses across the board including a general lack of emergency preparedness, weak governance, and political, economic, social, cultural and health threats.



Millions of Africans live on less than two dollars a day. The implication is simple. A lack of access to money, food, water and electricity, means extended lockdowns will not be easy to implement. High levels of poverty and other communicable diseases were already impacting health and wellbeing long before the arrival of the coronavirus. A shortage of well-equipped and well-funded healthcare facilities is just the tip of the iceberg. Everything from doctors, clinics, hospitals, beds, medical supplies and intensive care units are in chronic short supply.



However, the Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone and Liberia and collaborative action by African leaders and global partners, shows that where there is a will, there is always a way.



COVID-19 could not have arrived at a worse time for Africa. A crash in global commodity prices and a glut in the oil and gas markets has seen revenues drop precipitously. Further threats from nature, including the impact of devastating weather patterns such as Cyclone Idai and Henry and a recent plague of locusts, have to be managed alongside the pandemic.



Economically, the private sector and financial markets have taken a beating. The sudden reversal of fortunes is in stark contrast to a more positive projection in the African Development Bank’s 2020 African Economic Outlook when it was released in January 2020. The bandwidth of fiscal headroom is very thin. Commodity-sensitive economies are reeling under the effects of sudden price drops and the altered market reality of reduced global demand. Crude oil prices which now hover at $22 a barrel, have fallen more than 68% since January 2020. Non-oil commodity prices in natural gas and metals have also taken a nosedive.



Acting Fast and Thinking Authentically



Extended lockdowns carry inherent potential threats of their own and these must be managed. Along with underlying systemic weaknesses, the pandemic could unleash social unrest, the explosions of which will be as unprecedented as the virus itself.



We must therefore act fast and think authentically. Africa has its own particularities and to a certain extent, local contexts will require locally suited solutions, while drawing from global lessons. Recent videos of local communities forcefully resisting law enforcement and sanitation teams are already emerging. Such scenes are inevitable, for reasons of poverty, a lack of knowledge, and a chronic mistrust of authorities.



Concerns about informal settlements, some of the largest in the world, are a cause for worry, as is terrorism, economic and social exploitation and fragility.



Psychological impacts of a pandemic



Along with business and financial challenges, Africa’s leaders must prepare to address the social, physical and mental health fallouts from unavoidable lockdowns, social disruptions, the loss of basic human dignity, threats to civil life, and worse, the loss of life itself.



Several governments have grasped this and are stepping up, although time is not on their side. In many cases they have imposed limited two-week lockdowns in the first instance. The goal is not to alarm citizens. But this is unlikely to be sufficient as the virus apparently has its own agenda, pattern and timing! Realistically, beating COVID-19, is likely to require 6-10 weeks of total nationwide lockdowns, at a minimum.



 To not do so, is to sell an illusion. To not do so, is to delay the inevitable. To not do so, is to raise false hopes. To not do so, is to be complicit and irresponsible in the spread of this most virulent and devastating virus. Worse, it will be suicidal, not just for countries but for the continent.



Dealing with harsh realities



We must therefore deal with hard reality, scientific facts, current simulations and real global lessons. Cosmetic approaches will not work when surgical precision is required. We must marshal every resource in order to save lives … every life and especially those already living on the margins of society. The underlying ethos of Ubuntu which says – “I am, because you are,” must be unleashed with full force to save lives. We have to be brutally honest, in order to be kind to ourselves! The bottom line is that this is not a time for test runs.



Urgent action is needed now, not tomorrow. This includes –



<ol type="1"><li>Making tough and seemingly unpopular leadership decisions that will ultimately save lives and society.</li><li>Using every communication platform possible to increase public awareness and promote containment and preventative measures.</li><li>Stepping up testing and reducing the wait time between tests and test results.</li><li>Mobilising the support of public influencers including traditional, religious, civil society, entertainment celebrities, women and youth leaders.</li><li>Introducing measures to secure food and medical supply channels, fixing basic food prices, and curbing hoarding and panic-buying.</li><li>Re-purposing public spaces including conference centres, stadiums and open spaces for use as isolation and recovery centres.</li><li>Leveraging every available advantage, by focusing on low hanging fruits. For example, regional economic communities could re-organise manufacturing and target the supply of critically needed medicines, equipment and medical supplies, as well as food packaging and processing.</li><li>Delaying debt obligations and buying time with global creditors through forbearance or payment postponements. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, an estimated one third of African countries were at risk of debt distress. Post-crisis, the numbers will be significantly higher.</li></ol>



Pandemics and other global crises do not respect boundaries, titles or positions, creed, faith, gender, culture or hierarchy.



Abiy Ahmed, the Ethiopian Prime Minister and 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Laureate rightly tells us: “COVID-19 teaches us that we are all global citizens connected by a single virus that recognises none of our natural or man-made boundaries.” We are in this together, regardless of where we call home. “Umuntu ngumuntu ngabantu.” I am because you are.



Dr. Victor Oladokun is the former Director of Communication and External Relations, African Development Bank Group.



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

AFRICA LOCKS DOWN: No Time For Lockdowns

Op-Ed: Africa locks down: No time for test runs

By Irmgard Erasmus – Senior Financial Economist



Acutely aware of Ethiopia’s vulnerability to the health and
economic repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed
urged “collective leadership and coordinated responses” to overcome the
challenges posed by the unprecedented shock. 



The Ethiopian leader has taken a dominant position in the campaign
for comprehensive stimulus packages and debt relief for the African continent,
stressing that “we are not prepared to overcome the virus on our health systems
and the long-term impact on our economies”. 



Echoing this concern, a consortium of African ministers of finance
emphasised in a communique dated April 1 that “urgent need” exists “for fiscal
stimulus to contain the crisis”.



On April 1, G20 leaders indicated that they are preparing a
response package for Africa that will include debt relief and financial aid.
The response package will incorporate “recent demands from President Cyril
Ramaphosa of South Africa and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia”, according
to Politico. 



This also came after the United Nations Economic Commission for
Africa (UNECA) again requested the “urgent and immediate release” of a $100bn
support package to aid domestic response actions in the fight against the
health and economic implications of the Covid-19 pandemic. 



While the ministers welcomed the IMF and World Bank’s call for
official bilateral creditors to “provide breathing space” to African countries,
the consortium believes that “such relief should be extended to countries
across the region and by other creditors during this exceptional period”. 



A comprehensive $100bn support package for Africa will be
formalised for discussion and presentation at the World Bank and IMF’s
stakeholders’ initiatives on April 15.



For the public sector, disbursements will be utilised for the
servicing of public sector debt and interest payments, including on sovereign
bonds, in order to create “immediate fiscal space and liquidity” for
governments to focus their attention on domestic fiscal stimulus needs amid the
crisis. 



The consortium proposes that the $44bn disbursement be pooled into
a global special purpose vehicle (SPV) to be used for external debt service
“for effective management purposes till economic recovery takes hold and
agreement can be reached with creditors”. The ministers stressed that this
measure would guard against default by countries. 



The ministers requested the IMF to raise Special Drawing Rights
(SDRs) availability over the next two to three years. The consortium believes
that it would service the debt relief SPV facility and provide crucial
liquidity support.



Ethiopia has already rescheduled debt servicing agreements with
“some major creditors”, which will alleviate hard currency liquidity demands.
By September 2019, public external debt stock stood at $26.8bn, or half of
total outstanding public debt. 



Public external debt comprised a 60:40 split between central
government and state-owned enterprises, according to official records. 



Public external debt servicing costs amounted to $548.4m during Q1
FY 2019/20 (the fiscal year commences on July 8), of which $457.2m was due to
SOE debt servicing. 



Ethiopia has been among the most vocal of African nations to
request debt waivers or debt relief – while African finance ministers called
for a $100bn stimulus package, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed urged G20 members to
provide $150bn under a proposed three-point action plan. The disbursal should
take the form of supplementary budgetary support, debt relief, and private
sector financing, according to the proposal. 



The prime minister furthermore urged G20 nations to support the
World Health Organisation (WHO) and Africa Centres for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC) in strengthening public health delivery and emergency
preparedness.



Cognisant of the fragility of the private sector, especially as
small- and medium-sized enterprises account for over 70% of the private sector
in Africa, the consortium stressed that liquidity relief should be extended in
particular to service and tourism sectors. 



African finance ministers requested support from the G20, EU, and
all Development Finance institutions to support a proposal aimed at the
refinancing, rescheduling, and implementation of guarantee schemes and
liquidity facilities for the private sector. 



In particular, African airline companies require preservation and
protection “given their significant contribution to the GDP of Africa”.
Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to 80 destinations in light of the
pandemic. 



Demand for local flights, which are ongoing, dropped by at least
50% already. The airline estimates that it will lose at least $190m due to the
pandemic. 



The Ethiopian government has ordered the central bank to release
Etb15bn ($460m) to private banks as it ramped up its fight against the economic
spillover effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. The liquidity injection will enable
the banking sector to extend debt relief and additional loan facilities to
customers. 



This came in addition to instructions to avail foreign currency to
importers, with priority given to importers of essential goods or the
manufacturing of essential goods. 



In March, the World Bank granted a $500m grant and loan facility
(split evenly) to Ethiopia in support of its reform programme. 



The prime minister voiced his gratitude to “the generosity of the
Ethiopian people” as local stakeholders contributed generously to the National
Resource Mobilisation Committee initiative.



NKC African Economics’ preliminary GDP forecast suggests that
Ethiopia will be hit particularly hard by coronavirus-related disruptions. 



Absent comprehensive external support, a sharp slump in private
sector demand and investment momentum threatens an unprecedented plunge in
economic growth this year to 1.1% – down from a pre-virus forecast of 7.1%. 



Crucially, the pandemic threatens to disrupt progress made under
the reform agenda towards policy overhaul, broad-based privatisation of state
assets, financial liberalisation, and the launch of a domestic bourse. 



An uncomfortable reliance on grant relief amid strained domestic
fiscal capacity threatens to bloom into full-blown crisis in the absence of
comprehensive external financial support.

Lion_of_Judah,_Addis_Ababa,_Ethiopia

Op-Ed: Ethiopia – Abiy leads African appeal for relief actions

By Giulia Paravicini



ADDIS ABABA, Feb 18 (Reuters) &#8211; The United States will provide financial assistance to Ethiopia as it pursues political reforms, the office of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said on Tuesday during a visit by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.



&#8220;An agreement has been reached regarding the strengthening of the holistic and ongoing reform in Ethiopia to which the United States Government plans to provide substantial financial support,&#8221; the statement said.



Neither Pompeo nor Abiy provided further details. Ethiopia, Africa&#8217;s second-most populous nation, has long been an ally of the United States, which supplies about $1 billion in aid annually.



Pompeo praised political reforms Abiy has spearheaded ahead of Ethiopia&#8217;s upcoming elections. Ethiopians are due vote on Aug. 29 in a balllot Abiy has promised will be free and fair in a bold break from decades of repression.



&#8220;A free and credible vote will show that there is no false choice between democracy and security and it will ensure that everyone has a choice,&#8221; Pompeo told reporters.



Abiy took power in 2018 following years of anti-government protests. He freed thousands of political prisoners, won the Nobel Peace Prize for ending a long-running conflict with neighbouring Eritrea, and put prominent dissidents and human rights activists in positions of power.



&#8220;These aren&#8217;t reforms imposed by somebody on the outside. These were reforms that came from Ethiopian people,&#8221; Pompeo said.



A senior U.S. State Department official told pool reporters said Abiy appeared committed to holding elections on time, although he said Ethiopian security agencies &#8211; long used to suppressing political opposition &#8211; might need some more training on respecting human rights.



Abiy&#8217;s reforms, while applauded abroad, have also unleashed simmering ethnic and political tensions at home as regional powerbrokers jockey for position. More than 2 million of Ethiopia&#8217;s 109 million citizens have been displaced, according to the United Nations.



&#8220;The most important challenge for us is security,&#8221; Ethiopia&#8217;s foreign minister Gedu Andargachew told reporters. &#8220;Most of our youth have no job… this situation is difficult to maintain peace and order.&#8221;



Abiy has also overseen economic reforms, promising to open its bureaucratic, state-run economy to foreign investment and liberalise the telecoms and banking sectors. Ethiopia struggles with foreign exchange shortages that inhibit investment. Gedu also said there had been &#8220;progress&#8221; in a dispute that the U.S. Treasury has been trying to mediate between Ethiopia and Egypt over Ethiopia&#8217;s giant Blue Nile hydropower dam.



Pompeo is on a tour that has already taken him to Germany, Senegal and Angola. His visit comes as some African governments are questioning U.S. President Donald Trump&#8217;s commitment to their continent. 



(Additional reporting from pool reporters, Editing by Angus MacSwan Writing by Katharine Houreld)

U.S. to offer financial support for this East African country’s political reforms

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Leaders from across the East African Community and worldwide have commiserated with the Kenyan people following the passing of the country&#8217;s longest serving President Daniel Arap Moi. Moi, a former schoolteacher who ruled Kenya for 24 years, becoming the country’s longest-serving president had been in hospital for over a month. Presidents from the East African region took to social media to eulogise Moi. Joining CNBC Africa for more is journalist, Joseph Bonyo.

Arap Moi

One of Africa’s last strongmen, Daniel Arap Moi dies at 95

WASHINGTON (Reuters) &#8211; The staff of the International Monetary Fund and the Ethiopian government have reached a preliminary agreement for a three-year, $2.9 billion financing package to support the African country’s economic reform program, the IMF said on Wednesday.



It said the agreement was subject to approval by the Fund’s executive board. If approved, it would be supported by the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Extended Fund Facility (EFF).



The Ethiopian economic reform program would focus on addressing the foreign exchange shortage and transitioning to a more flexible exchange rate regime, while working to strengthen oversight and management of state-owned enterprises to contain debt vulnerabilities in Africa’s second most populous nation.



It would also work to free up domestic revenue for poverty-reducing and essential infrastructure spending; financial sector reforms to support private investment and modernize the monetary policy framework; and strengthening of the supervisory framework and financial safety nets, the IMF said.



Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed pledged to undertake economic reforms when he took office last year, with a focus on leveraging private sector investment to help provide jobs for millions of unemployed youth in the nation’s 100 million people.



Ethiopia’s foreign exchange shortages have worsened in the past five years as the government spent heavily on infrastructure before export earnings from new sectors such as manufacturing took off.



Reporting by David Lawder and Andrea Shalal; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Lisa Shumaker

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IMF and this East African country reach preliminary agreement on $2.9 billion financing package

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Last week as social media lit up in reaction to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed&#8217;s Nobel Peace Prize win, Addis Ababa was also in the throws of the 9th edition of the Horn of Africa Fashion Week which featured local designers and fashion houses from around the region. The event drew attention but in a country that has grand aspirations of growing its clothing revenues to $30 billion a year, how is the industry fairing so far at large? Fashion Designer, Mahlet Afework joins CNBC Africa for more.

Designer Mahlet Afework talks entrepreneurship, Africa’s fashion industry

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Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed are set to meet in Russia to discuss a dispute over a hydropower dam that Ethiopia is building on the River Nile, which has caused a long-running diplomatic standoff. Ethiopia aims to provide electricity to homes of its 105 million citizens and Egypt wants a steady supply of water for its 98 million citizens. Global Chairman at Fairfax Africa Fund (US), Zemedeneh Negatu joins CNBC Africa for more.

Egypt, Ethiopia to hold talks over Nile dam hydropower dispute

OSLO (Reuters) &#8211; Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize on Friday for his peacemaking efforts with Eritrea.



Ethiopia and Eritrea, longtime foes who fought a border war from 1998 to 2000, restored relations in July 2018 after years of hostility. [nL8N1U5180]



The prize, worth nine million Swedish crowns, or around $900,000, will be presented in Oslo on Dec. 10.



“Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali has been awarded this year’s Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea,” the Norwegian Nobel Committee said in its citation.



The Nobel Peace Prize will be presented in Oslo on Dec. 10, the anniversary of the death of Swedish industrialist Alfred Nobel, who founded the awards in his 1895 will.



Reporting by Gwladys Fouche and Terje Solsvik in Oslo, Maggie Fick and Katharine Houreld in Nairobi; Editing by Andrew Heavens

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed wins 2019 Nobel Peace Prize

<figure>
 <img decoding="async" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285949/original/file-20190728-43145-12i3i21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&#038;q=45&#038;auto=format&#038;w=754&#038;fit=clip" />
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 Young men in the traditional attire of southern Ethiopia’s Sidama people.
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By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yonatan-fessha-788262">Yonatan Fessha</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-the-western-cape-1018">University of the Western Cape</a>

Mounting tensions in southern Ethiopia are <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-49070762">creating</a> high levels of nervousness in the country. At the centre of the conflict is the clamour for internal secession by the Sidama, the country’s fifth largest ethic group. Most recently, the federal government declared that it, rather than the local authorities, was now <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-politics-idUSKCN1UI29Z?utm_source=34553&amp;utm_medium=partner">in charge</a> of maintaining peace and security. This followed violence which had led to deaths and injuries.

Ethiopia has 80 ethnic groups. More than two decades ago, the country adopted a constitution that uses ethnicity as a basis to organise the federation. But only five of the nine states are home to a dominant ethnic community. The remaining four states are markedly multi-ethnic. 

Here the complications set in. While some numerically stronger ethnic communities have been denied the status of a state, some smaller ones have a state to call their own. For example, the State of Harari is home to the eponymous community of fewer than 200 000 people. 

On the other hand there are ethnic groups, like the Sidama – with more than three million people – that don’t have a state of their own. 

It has not always been like this. The Sidama have a history of distinct administrative existence dating back to <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/ethiopia/b146-time-ethiopia-bargain-sidama-over-statehood">imperial days</a>. More recently, the ethnically defined State of Sidama, in which the Sidama were the majority, was <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23644459?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">established in 1991</a>. 

But this was abolished when Ethiopia adopted a new Constitution in 1995 and the Southern Nations and Nationalities and People’s Regional State (the Southern State) was established where the Sidama became just one of the 56 or so ethnic groups that inhabit the state. 

Since then, members of the Sidama community have been demanding their own state, pointing to states like Harari.

The matter came to a head on July 18 when members of the Sidama community tried to carry out their threat of unilaterally <a href="https://borkena.com/2019/04/09/sidama-women-marched-awassa-demanding-ethnic-sidama-statehood/">declaring</a> the creation of a separate state. This followed months of agitation. 

What Ethiopia now faces is a hugely complex legal and political issue. The clauses in the Constitution dealing with secession are open to wide interpretation, as has been made clear by <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-security/ethiopia-faces-more-conflict-with-ethnic-groups-push-for-region-idUSKCN1TZ1H0">recent comments</a> by the Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. 

On the other hand, it’s important that all parties concerned work their way towards a negotiated settlement particularly given the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/06/250-arrested-ethiopia-foiled-coup-state-tv-190628005517448.html">fragile state</a> the country’s in.

<figure class="align-center ">
 <img decoding="async" alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285839/original/file-20190726-43153-u4sq1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285839/original/file-20190726-43153-u4sq1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=453&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285839/original/file-20190726-43153-u4sq1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=453&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285839/original/file-20190726-43153-u4sq1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=453&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285839/original/file-20190726-43153-u4sq1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=569&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285839/original/file-20190726-43153-u4sq1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=569&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285839/original/file-20190726-43153-u4sq1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=569&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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 Map of Ethiopia’s semi-autonomous states.
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<h2>Constitutional amendment</h2>

The good thing for the Sidama and others is that the Constitution has kept the door of statehood ajar for ethnic groups wanting to establish a state of their own. <a href="https://www.wipo.int/edocs/lexdocs/laws/en/et/et007en.pdf">Article 47(2)</a> provides ethnic groups the right to establish a state of their own. 

All a community needs to do is to show that it has support for its demand. A simple majority vote of the community is enough – or so it would seem. In reality, the process is proving to be much more complicated.

In his recent address to law makers Abiy alluded to the complexity of the problem when he pointed out that a majority vote in favour of statehood might not be sufficient because the constitution only lists nine states that constitute the federation. Getting the prospective state of Sidama onto that list would require a constitutional amendment. 

Many, including myself, were quick to dismiss this as an <a href="https://en-gb.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=2124590420997449&amp;id=1046081962181639&amp;__xts__%5B0%5D=68.ARCfqZGMNJHZ09WoGoSlEIbAo_xtxIQpUSSwO4wLC_EDhINnsb3fV3mzojb5Uj64o4JZXdi4dEmfqhEG90ThmRgBU3lJpWDNBvy9imYA983BhalRJRhVrPCWz2wSxT0yLnkAAFZcZUa864kVAAB-YY7IVLOJRrPgv7EFinkDhaSnMOw9pRZg2BoqSS_uAVD6xIfMHCLrM7OngauHwrvTpcVB2egqor0AouuQ2lTFTPYojYiZUDiod6F4gdrEDoBKmghtnwq5dZq28W22Z9eKtS9Ak3sP-uznlaKH9JG0tbH036LX1aQ6DVMj9PYPn9gtgCntSYpjzKTmvDMlfWCk5mkl&amp;__tn__=K-R">act of legal gymnastics</a> by a Prime Minister who has found himself between a rock and hard place. The Constitution, after all, states that a new state directly becomes a member of the federation without any need for application to join it. 

But the prime minister is also correct that the constitutional clause listing the states must be amended if the Sidama’s quest for statehood is to be completed. And this is an amendment that requires the support of the two houses of the federal parliament and the legislative assemblies of at least two-thirds of the states.

One may argue that a suitable referendum result should place an obligation on the member states and the federal government to effect the necessary constitutional amendment. To borrow the famous lines of the Supreme Court of Canada, <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/c-31.8/page-1.html">‘a clear expression of a will by a clear majority’</a> of the population of the Sidama to secede from the Southern State should create an obligation on the rest of the country to do what is constitutionally necessary. 

But this also poses a potential stumbling block: is it possible to coerce a state from which a territory is seceding – in this case the Southern State – to vote for a constitutional amendment that effectively presents a threat to its territorial integrity? After all, there is no language of obligation in Article 47. In as much as it gives ethnic communities the right to demand internal secession, it does not impose a corresponding duty on the others to accept it.

Even if an obligation exists, I would argue that it is an obligation to negotiate. This means that the concerned parties, including the federal government, the government of the Southern State and the Sidama local governments, must come to the table to negotiate the possibilities and ramifications of a new Sidama state. 

That is why, in my view, it was also unconstitutional for members of the Sidama community to unilaterally declare the formation of a new state. Ethiopia’s Constitution is silent on what should be done in the event a state or federal government refusing to entertain a request to secede. But it does subject internal secession to a procedure. This suggests that it does not allow for a unilateral declaration of succession. Further, a federal law requires appeals to be directed to the House of Federation, the body tasked to deal with constitutional disputes.

<h2>Negotiating table</h2>

All roads, it seems, lead the parties to a negotiating table. It must be admitted that the Sidama’s struggle to have their own state is at a point of no return. The state and federal authorities have now agreed to hold a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-security/ethiopia-faces-more-conflict-with-ethnic-groups-push-for-region-idUSKCN1TZ1H0">referendum</a> within the next five months. 

Perhaps in the meantime they can engage in a negotiation and deal with many of the questions that remain unanswered. This includes who should be allowed to vote in the referendum, the division of assets and the concerns of individuals that do not belong to the Sidama ethnic group. 

Ethiopia is in an extremely fragile political state. It can’t afford the instability and chaos that might follow from the disorderly partitioning of an existing state and a similar push by others. Both state and non-state actors must work towards a cooperative internal secession.

A longer version of this article was first published on the <a href="https://blog-iacl-aidc.org/2019-posts/2019/7/15/internal-secession-and-federalism-in-ethiopia">IACL-IADC Blog</a> under the title “Internal secession and Federalism in Ethiopia”.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120734/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" />

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yonatan-fessha-788262">Yonatan Fessha</a>, Marie-Curie Fellow, EURAC Research and Associate Professor, Public Law and Jurisprudence, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-the-western-cape-1018">University of the Western Cape</a>

This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-why-the-sidama-secession-demand-needs-to-be-negotiated-120734">original article</a>.

Should the secession demand of Ethiopia’s Sidama people be negotiated ?

By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/martin-plaut-319416">Martin Plaut</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/school-of-advanced-study-1058">School of Advanced Study</a>

Exactly a year ago Eritreans could hardly contain their joy as Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/07/ethiopia-pm-abiy-ahmed-eritrea-landmark-visit-180708083000438.html">touched down in Asmara</a>. The city had seen nothing like it in a generation that knew war rather than peace. Men and women lined the streets and waved Ethiopian flags as Abiy arrived to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-44764597">seal a peace deal</a>. 

Less than a week later Eritrea’s president Isaias Afwerki made a reciprocal visit, landing in Addis Ababa to an <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-44824676">equally rapturous welcome</a>. In September a formal treaty was signed between the two leaders in the Saudi capital, Jeddah, witnessed by King Salman and the UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, who described it as an <a href="http://www.arabnews.com/node/1372886/saudi-arabia">“historic event.”</a>

The treaty <a href="http://shabait.com/news/local-news/27076-agreement-on-peace-friendship-and-comprehensive-cooperation-between-the-federal-democratic-republic-of-ethiopia-and-the-state-of-eritrea-">covered a number of things</a>. It ended the state of war between Eritrea and Ethiopia; declaring a new era of peace, friendship and comprehensive cooperation.

As part of this deal, there were two important provisions. One called for “the establishment of joint special economic zones. The other was a pledge to establish a high-level joint committee, as well as sub-committees where needed to guide and oversee the implementation of this agreement.

But there has been little apparent progress on either front. Economic co-operation was probably one of the key drivers of this reconciliation. These included plans to develop a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-23/eritrea-mulls-new-port-as-ethiopia-rapprochement-spurs-investors">massive potash mine that would straddle the border</a>. But little has been heard of the project in recent months.

Much the same can be said of the joint committees that were given the job of sorting out the many issues bedevilling relations between the two countries. 

What’s become clear is that the warmth of a year ago has largely gone. With little progress on implementing and institutionalising the relations between the two countries an air of uncertainty and suspicion is <a href="https://www.ethiopia-insight.com/2019/01/31/politicized-eritrea-peace-perpetuates-conflict-cycle/">creeping back</a>.

<h2>Disputed border</h2>

One of the sticking points between the two countries is the disputed border. The border was <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/eritrea/eritrea-ethiopia-boundary-commission-decision-regarding-delimitation-border">formally designated</a> by the Boundary Commission established after the 1998–2000 border war. The conflict had many causes: rivalry between the liberation movements that had been operating in both countries and economic competition. But it was competing claims to the insignificant border town of Badme that was the spark that <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/why-eritrea-border-ethiopia-conflict-zone-469739">ignited the war.</a> 

The two countries signed what became known as the Algiers Peace Agreement in 2000. The agreement made clear that the boundary commission could only make decisions based strictly on legal and historical grounds. This barred it from being able to allow for what might be considered just and fair – what’s known as <a href="https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/file/resources/collections/peace_agreements/eritrea_ethiopia_12122000.pdf">ex aequo et bono</a>. 

As a result, the border the Boundary Commission came up with resulted in settlements being dissected and villagers separated from their farmlands. And it left some people on both sides of the border concerned at being transferred from one state to the other. 

Changes could only be made by both countries agreeing to any adjustments. This was one of the questions that the joint commissions agreed to in Jeddah was meant to resolve. Others included the terms of trade between Eritrea and Ethiopia, for example exchange rates and economic relations which were seen as important <a href="http://www.dehai.org/conflict/analysis/alemsghed2.html">contributing factors</a> in the 1988 – 2000 border war.

<h2>Distractions</h2>

Rather than working to consolidate the peace, the leaders of both countries have drifted elsewhere. Ethiopia has been caught up in increasingly <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/ethiopia-needs-act-fast-solve-its-internal-displacement-problem">complex and bloody ethnic conflicts</a> that have driven more than a million people from their homes. Coming to grips with this is taking much of Abiy’s time and attention. 

He has also been working <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXHBo4Sug6k">on behalf of the African Union</a> to help resolve the political crisis in Sudan. Eritrea’s Isaias has also been to Sudan, but with a rather different remit. <a href="http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article67719">Welcomed warmly by</a> by the deputy chairman of the Transitional Military Council, General Mohamed Hamdan Daglo &#8220;Hemetti”, Isaias issued a statement that showed his agenda was quite <a href="http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article67719">different</a>, as shown by his recent statement:

<blockquote>
The Government of Eritrea requests the AU to refrain from internationalising and exacerbating the situation in Sudan. 
</blockquote>

His approach isn’t difficult to understand. Isaias enjoys <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/201904110180.html">strong relations</a> with Saudi Arabia and the UAE both of which have been embroiled in a war in Yemen. Eritrea has <a href="http://www.madote.com/2016/09/how-eritreas-assab-port-became-major.html">allowed its ports and airfields</a> to be used by both countries to prosecute this war. At the same time the Sudanese military <a href="http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article67591">provide troops</a> to fight in Yemen and have been open in their support for the Saudi and UAE in their war aims. 

Saudi Arabia was therefore <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/05/saudi-arabia-sudan-uprising-omar-al-bashir">alarmed</a> at the challenge posed to the Sudanese government by the popular uprising in Khartoum and other Sudanese towns and cities. 

<h2>Border remains tense</h2>

Even though the glow of last year’s events has faced, Eritrea has nevertheless reaped many gains from the rapprochement with Ethiopia. One consequence is that it <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47934398">signalled</a> the end of its international isolation. Limited United Nations sanctions were <a href="https://theconversation.com/sanctions-are-being-lifted-against-eritrea-heres-why-106881">lifted</a> and the country now holds a <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/eritrea-in-the-un-human-rights-council-fox-guarding-the-henhouse/a-49378901">seat on the UN Human Rights Council</a>, a body that frequently criticised its lack of adherence to international human rights norms.

Eritrea has also taken the chair of the <a href="https://www.khartoumprocess.net/about/actors-and-governance">Khartoum Process</a>. This is a critical position, since it is the key forum in which African states negotiate with the European Union.

But the situation along the Ethiopia-Eritrea border remains tense. The Ethiopian government attempted to move its heavy artillery away from the border, but this was <a href="https://ecadforum.com/2019/01/09/military-trucks-blocked-in-tigray-region/">blocked by local residents</a> of Tigray, fearful that there might be renewed conflict with Eritrea. 

Their concerns are hardly surprising. Isaias has made <a href="http://www.shabait.com/news/local-news/26520-president-isaias-speech-on-martyrs-day">vituperative statements</a> about his immediate neighbours, describing the Trigrayan ruling party &#8211; the TPLF – as “vultures”, and accusing them of following a “toxic and malignan” agenda.

It is difficult to know how relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara will develop. The fear is that Isaias has gone back to his unpredictable ways, making any predictions difficult.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119931/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" />

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/martin-plaut-319416">Martin Plaut</a>, Senior Research Fellow, Horn of Africa and Southern Africa, Institute of Commonwealth Studies, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/school-of-advanced-study-1058">School of Advanced Study</a>

This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-glow-of-the-historic-accord-between-ethiopia-and-eritrea-has-faded-119931">original article</a>.

Is the glow of the historic accord between Eritrea and Ethiopia fading ?

ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) &#8211; Ethiopia’s army chief of staff and the regional president of the northern state of Amhara were killed in two related attacks when a general tried to seize control of Amhara in an attempted coup, the prime minister’s office said on Sunday.



Amhara state president Ambachew Mekonnen and his advisor were shot dead and the state’s attorney general was wounded in Amhara’s capital of Bahir Dar on Saturday evening, according to a statement from the office of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.



In a separate attack the same night, Ethiopia’s army Chief of Staff Seare Mekonnen and another retired general were shot dead in Seare’s home in Addis Ababa by his bodyguard. The two attacks were linked, the statement said, without giving details.



Abiy’s office named Amhara state security head General Asamnew Tsige as responsible for the foiled coup, without giving details of his whereabouts. Asamnew was released from prison last year, having been given an amnesty for a similar coup attempt, according to media reports.



Abiy took office just over a year ago and embarked on unprecedented reforms in Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous country and one of its fastest-growing economies.



But the premier’s shake-up of the military and intelligence services has earned him powerful enemies, while his government is struggling to rein in powerful figures in Ethiopia’s myriad ethnic groups fighting the federal government and each other for greater influence and resources.



The shooting in Bahir Dar occurred when the state president &#8211; an ally of Abiy &#8211; was holding a meeting to decide how to put a stop to the open recruitment of ethnic Amhara militias by Asamnew, one Addis-based official told Reuters.



Asamnew had advised the Amhara people to arm themselves in preparation for fighting against other groups, in a video spread on Facebook a week earlier and seen by a Reuters reporter.



Abiy donned military fatigues to announce the attempted coup on state television on Saturday evening. Residents of Bahir Dar, about 500 kilometers (311 miles) northwest of Addis, said there was at least four hours of gunfire on Saturday evening and some roads had been closed off.



“The situation in the Amhara region is currently under full control by the Federal Government in colloboration with the regional government,” Abiy said in the statement on Sunday.



The U.S. Embassy tweeted it had heard reports of gunfire in Addis Ababa on Saturday night, and some residents told Reuters they heard six shots in a suburb near the country’s Bole International Airport around 9:30 p.m. local time.



The capital was quieter than usual on Sunday, with fewer cars or pedestrians on the streets.



Earlier Brigadier General Tefera Mamo, the head of special forces in Amhara, told state television that “most of the people who attempted the coup have been arrested, although there are a few still at large.”



He did not give details about Asamnew.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">STRUGGLE FOR REFORMS</h3>



Since coming to power, Abiy has released political prisoners, removed bans on political parties and prosecuted officials accused of gross human rights abuses, but his government is battling ethnic bloodshed once held in check by the state’s iron grip.



Now some of Ethiopia’s ethnic groups are disputing the boundaries of the country’s nine federal states, or arguing that they too should have regional governments, claims that threaten the dominance of other groups.



Amhara is home to Ethiopia’s second largest ethnic group of the same name and their native tongue, Amharic, is also the country’s official language. The anti-government protests that



lasted three years and eventually forced former prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn to resign in 2018 had begun in the neighbouring state of Oromia but quickly spread to Amhara.



Demonstators were angered by grievances over land rights, political and economic marginalisation &#8211; issues that Abiy is now racing to address.



“He (Abiy) seems to be dismantling the EPRDF (ruling coalition) and is entertaining thoughts of altering the architecture of federalism, but he hasn’t given any clear direction he’s heading in,” said Matt Bryden, the head of regional thinktank Sahan Research.



“That uncertainty is creating a lot of competition and &#8230; driving a lot of the friction and violence.”



Abiy had also changed many senior security officials when he came to power, Bryden noted, creating more uncertainty that allowed armed groups that would once have been quashed to flourish.



Abiy’s changes have not gone unchallenged. A year ago, he survived a grenade attack that killed two people at his rally. In October, hundreds of soldiers marched on his palace demanding more pay. He defused the situation by doing push ups with them but later said they were trying to derail reforms.



The internet was down across Ethiopia on Sunday, although there was no statement on this from the government. Authorities have cut off the internet several times previously for security and other reasons.



Ethiopia is due to hold parliamentary elections next year, although the electoral board warned earlier this month that they were behind schedule and that instability could cause a problem for polling. Several opposition groups have called for the elections to be held on time anyway.



Additional reporting by Katharine Houreld; Writing by Elias Biryabarema and Katharine Houreld; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky

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