<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="410" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106677114-15983545702020-08-25t100023z_1719720997_rc2yki97n9wc_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-tech-1-820x410.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-558826" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106677114-15983545702020-08-25t100023z_1719720997_rc2yki97n9wc_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-tech-1-820x410.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106677114-15983545702020-08-25t100023z_1719720997_rc2yki97n9wc_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-tech-1-300x150.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106677114-15983545702020-08-25t100023z_1719720997_rc2yki97n9wc_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-tech-1-160x80.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106677114-15983545702020-08-25t100023z_1719720997_rc2yki97n9wc_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-tech-1-768x384.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106677114-15983545702020-08-25t100023z_1719720997_rc2yki97n9wc_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-tech-1.jpeg 884w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Chinese and U.S. flags flutter near The Bund, before U.S. trade delegation meet their Chinese counterparts for talks in Shanghai, China July 30, 2019. Aly Song | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING — President-elect Donald Trump plans to raise tariffs by an additional 10% on all Chinese goods coming into the U.S., according to a post on his social media platform Truth Social.



The post immediately followed one in which Trump said his first of “many” executive orders on Jan. 20 would impose tariffs of 25% on all products from Mexico and Canada. Such a move would end a regional free trade agreement.



Trump is set to be inaugurated as the next U.S. president on Jan. 20. He cited illegal immigration and illicit drug trade as reasons for the tariffs.



“I have had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl, being sent into the United States – But to no avail,” Trump said.&nbsp;He claimed that contrary to promises, Beijing did not impose the death penalty on such drug dealers.



Fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, is an addictive drug that’s led to tens of thousands of overdose deaths each year in the U.S.



Reducing illicit supplies of the drug, precursors of which are mostly produced in China and Mexico, has been an area in which Washington and Beijing have agreed to cooperate.



“No one will win a trade war or a tariff war,” Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for China’s embassy in the U.S., said on X. He described bilateral economic and trade cooperation as “mutually beneficial in nature.”



Liu pushed back on Trump’s claim that China has done little to stem the flow of fentanyl to the U.S. He said that both countries’ counternarcotics teams have regularly communicated since Chinese President Xi Jinping met with U.S. President Joe Biden in November 2023.



“Drugs are pouring into our Country, mostly through Mexico, at levels never seen before,” Trump said. “Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America.”



Trump had threatened tariffs of 60% on Chinese goods while campaigning for president.



A 10% tariff on China is lower than the 20% to 30% that markets expected, Kinger Lau, chief China equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.” He expects China will cut rates, increase fiscal stimulus and moderately depreciate its currency in order to counter the economic impact of increased duties.



Mexico is the largest trading partner of the U.S., followed by Canada and China, according to U.S. data as of September.



The U.S. is China’s largest trading partner on a single country basis, according to China customs data. The Asian country’s largest regional trading partners are the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the European Union.



China and the U.S. still have a “really important commercial and economic relationship,” Andy Rothman, investment strategist at Matthews Asia, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Tuesday. He said that China is unlikely to take reciprocal action for now, and noted that Beijing has not typically responded aggressively.



The U.S. dollar traded about 1% stronger versus the Mexican peso, and 1.4% higher against the Canadian dollar as of Tuesday morning. The greenback climbed around 0.2% against the Hong Kong-traded Chinese yuan.



— CNBC’s Hui Jie Lim and Anniek Bao contributed to this report.

106677114-15983545702020-08-25t100023z_1719720997_rc2yki97n9wc_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-tech (1)

Trump vows an additional 10% tariff on China, 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108064788-1731985547539-gettyimages-2184866467-HK_FINANCE_SUMMIT-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-556053" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108064788-1731985547539-gettyimages-2184866467-HK_FINANCE_SUMMIT-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108064788-1731985547539-gettyimages-2184866467-HK_FINANCE_SUMMIT-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108064788-1731985547539-gettyimages-2184866467-HK_FINANCE_SUMMIT-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108064788-1731985547539-gettyimages-2184866467-HK_FINANCE_SUMMIT-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108064788-1731985547539-gettyimages-2184866467-HK_FINANCE_SUMMIT-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108064788-1731985547539-gettyimages-2184866467-HK_FINANCE_SUMMIT.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">He Lifeng, China’s vice premier, during the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong, China, on Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024.  Paul Yeung | Bloomberg | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on Tuesday vowed to boost Hong Kong’s competitiveness by investing in the city’s innovation and delivering supportive financial policies.



Speaking at the third Global Financial Leaders Investment Summit, hosted by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, He reiterated Beijing’s commitment to “explore and implement” measures aimed at building Hong Kong as an “international financial center.” That’s according to CNBC’s translation of his spoken Mandarin.



Beijing’s stimulus measures have already “benefited” Hong Kong, said He, who oversees a key economic and financial policymaking body. “The upward trajectory of the economy is more certain.”



To strengthen its financial industry, Hong Kong needs to leverage measures from mainland China as well as its global connections, Li Yunze, minister of China’s National Financial Regulatory Administration, said in a panel following He’s speech.



Almost 80% of mainland businesses that seek an offshore listing would go to Hong Kong, Li said, stressing the city’s future “has always been intertwined with” China.



During the same panel, Wu Qing, head of China’s securities regulator, said that Hong Kong will continue pursuing policies that attract more foreign investment.



Some of the world’s largest banks have moved to scale back operations and cut jobs in Hong Kong and mainland China amid a prolonged dearth in listing and deal-making activities.



An exodus of capital made the city’s Hang Seng the worst-performing major index last year, marking fourth straight years of decline. And Hong Kong’s stock market saw proceeds from initial public listings (IPOs) and follow-on share sales shrink 16% in the first six months this year, compared to a year ago, according to LSEG data.



Still, operators of Hong Kong’s stock exchange have pointed to signs of pickup in the third quarter as Beijing unveiled a raft of stimulus measures to bolster its flagging economy.



Vice premier He, a close confidant of President Xi Jinping, has been tasked with tackling China’s government debt crisis and protracted property downturn, which have strained the regions financial stability and stunted economic growth momentum.



Earlier this month, Chinese authorities took further steps to attract foreign investment, including lowering the capital threshold for foreign investors holding a non-controlling stake in an enterprise. Under the new regulations, foreign individuals are now allowed to invest in publicly-listed companies.



PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng also said in a meeting on Nov. 7 that that China would continue to implement accommodative monetary policy and bolster ties between domestic and foreign financial markets. Representatives from 11 foreign institutions including HSBC, Standard Chartered and Citigroup attended that meeting, according to a statement.

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China’s vice premier vows to boost Hong Kong competitiveness, says stimulus push has ‘benefited’ the city

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108063216-1731601889272-gettyimages-2183863696-20241106_city_skyline_mist_002-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-554559" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108063216-1731601889272-gettyimages-2183863696-20241106_city_skyline_mist_002-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108063216-1731601889272-gettyimages-2183863696-20241106_city_skyline_mist_002-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108063216-1731601889272-gettyimages-2183863696-20241106_city_skyline_mist_002-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108063216-1731601889272-gettyimages-2183863696-20241106_city_skyline_mist_002-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108063216-1731601889272-gettyimages-2183863696-20241106_city_skyline_mist_002-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108063216-1731601889272-gettyimages-2183863696-20241106_city_skyline_mist_002.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Bank of England in the City of London on 6th November 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images) Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



The U.K. economy grew less than expected in the third quarter of the year, showing only marginal growth following a rebound at the start of the year, initial figures showed Friday.



Gross domestic product came in at&nbsp;0.1% in the&nbsp;three months to September compared to the previous quarter. That’s&nbsp;below the 0.2% growth expected by economists polled by Reuters and&nbsp;follows an expansion of 0.5% in the second quarter of the year.



U.K.’s dominant services sector also grew just 0.1% on the quarter, the Office for National Statistics said. Construction rose by 0.8%, while production slipped 0.2% in the month.



It comes after inflation in the U.K. fell sharply to 1.7% in September, dipping below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since April 2021. The fall in inflation helped pave the way for the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, bringing its key rate to 4.75%.



The Bank of England said last week it expects the Labour Government’s tax-raising budget to boost GDP by 0.75 percentage points in a year’s time. Policymakers also noted that the government’s fiscal plan had led to an increase in their inflation forecasts.



U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said Friday she was “not satisfied” with the numbers.



“At my Budget, I took the difficult choices to fix the foundations and stabilise our public finances.&nbsp;Now we are going to deliver growth through investment and reform to create more jobs and more money in people’s pockets, get the NHS back on its feet, rebuild Britain and secure our borders in a decade of national renewal,” she said in a release.



A rate cut at the BOE’s next meeting in December now looks “improbable,” according to Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales. He said inflation risks and growing global headwinds will likely prevent policymakers from pursuing back-to-back rate cuts.



“These figures suggest that the economy went off the boil even before the budget, as weaker business and consumer confidence helped weaken output across the third quarter, particularly in September,” Thiru said in emailed comments.



The outcome of the recent U.S. election has fostered much uncertainty about the global economic impact of another term from President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to be widely inflationary and hit the European economy hard, some analysts have said such measures could provide opportunities for the British economy.



Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave little away last week on the bank’s views of Trump’s tariff agenda, but he did reference risks around global fragmentation.



“Let’s wait and see where things get to. I’m not going to prejudge what might happen, what might not happen,” he told reporters during a press briefing.



The British pound ticked slightly higher by 0.1% against the U.S. dollar at 7:33 a.m. in London. It dipped 0.15% against the euro following Friday’s GDP release.

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UK economy ekes out 0.1% growth in the third quarter, below expectations

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/WTO-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-553664" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/WTO-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/WTO-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/WTO-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/WTO-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/WTO-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/WTO-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Meghan, Duchess of Sussex (not pictured), co-hosts an event of Women in Leadership with Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director General of the World Trade Organization in Abuja, Nigeria, May 11, 2024. REUTERS/Marvellous Durowaiye/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



GENEVA, Nov 12 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The World Trade Organization&nbsp;is&nbsp;planning&nbsp;a special meeting of its top decision-making body later this month where a call could be made on the reappointment of its&nbsp;Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, a document showed on Tuesday.



Trade sources said such a meeting appeared to be a route that could fast-track the appointment process to avoid any risk of it getting blocked by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whose teams and allies have criticised both Okonjo-Iweala and the trade watchdog in the past.



The&nbsp;WTO document sent by the General Council chair said the first day of the Nov. 28-29 meeting would allow Okonjo-Iweala, a former Nigerian finance minister, to present her vision for the 166-member organisation and answer delegates&#8217; questions. The second day could provide &#8220;an opportunity for Members to take a decision on the appointment of the next Director-General&#8221;, it said.



Okonjo-Iweala, 70, is the sole candidate for the job and told Reuters she wants to complete &#8220;unfinished business&#8221; from her first term which includes new rules on cutting fishing subsidies and finding a fix for its hobbled appeals court.



Dozens of countries have voiced support in recent WTO meetings for her reappointment after her term expires on Aug. 31,&nbsp;2025. But some have privately observed that the WTO&#8217;s election process, which typically lasts months, could allow for Trump&#8217;s team to oppose her candidacy.



Trump is set to be inaugurated on Jan. 20.



In 2020, his administration gave its support to a rival candidate and sought to block her first term. She secured U.S. backing only when President Joe Biden succeeded Trump in the White House.



Those who follow the trade body say it is likely to face a messy, recriminatory period for trade under Trump. He has vowed to impose new tariffs of 10%-20% on global imports and 60% on goods from China, well above the rates it has committed to under WTO rules and upending global trade flows.



Asked about the potential to speed the WTO&#8217;s reappointment of Okonjo-Iweala, Trump&#8217;s transition team responded with a non-specific answer.



&#8220;The American people reelected President Trump because they trust him to lead our country and restore peace through strength around the world. When he returns to the White House, he will take the necessary action to do just that,&#8221; a Trump-Vance transition spokesperson said in an emailed statement.



The U.S. Trade Representative&#8217;s office, still controlled by the Biden administration, declined to comment.



There is no guarantee that WTO members, which approve decisions by consensus, will agree to a second term for Okonjo-Iweala at the November meeting and the chair could opt to postpone the decision, trade sources said.



If they do pursue it, it might backfire, suggested Keith Rockwell, a former WTO director and senior fellow at the Hinrich Foundation. &#8220;Let&#8217;s see how the United States likes being pushed into a corner,&#8221; he said, calling the actions to speed up the appointment process &#8220;unprecedented.&#8221;



(Reporting by Emma Farge; Additional reporting by David Lawder in Washington; editing by Thomas Seythal, Alexandra Hudson and Richard Chang)

Meghan, Duchess of Sussex, co-hosts an event of Women in Leadership with Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director General of the World Trade Organization in Abuja

WTO may seek to reappoint chief ahead of Trump presidency

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-529012" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA.jpg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-300x205.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-132x90.jpg 132w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-768x525.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



Oil prices may see a drastic fall in the event that oil alliance OPEC+ unwinds its existing output cuts, said market watchers who are predicting a bearish year ahead for crude.



“There is more fear about 2025′s oil prices than there has been since years — any year I can remember, since the Arab Spring,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, an oil price reporting agency.



“You could get down to $30 or $40 a barrel if OPEC unwound and didn’t have any kind of real agreement to rein in production. They’ve seen their market share really dwindle through the years,” Kloza added.



A decline to $40 a barrel would mean around a 40% erasure of current crude prices. Global benchmark Brent is currently trading at $72 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures are around $68 per barrel.



Given that oil demand growth next year probably won’t be much more than 1 million barrels a day, a full unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts in 2025 would “undoubtedly see a very steep slide in crude prices, possibly toward $40 a barrel,” Henning Gloystein, head of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, told CNBC.&nbsp;



Similarly, MST Marquee’s senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic posited that should OPEC+ unwind cuts without regard to demand, it would “effectively amount to a price war over market share that could send oil to lows not seen since Covid.”



However, the alliance is more likely to opt for a gradual unwinding early next year, compared to a full scale and immediate one, the analysts said.



The oil cartel has been exercising discipline in maintaining its voluntary output cuts, to the point of extending them.



In September, OPEC+ postponed plans to begin gradually rolling back on the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts by two months in an effort to stem the slide of oil prices. The 2.2 million bpd cut, which was implemented over the second and third quarters, had been due to expire at the end of September.&nbsp;



At the start of this month, the oil cartel again decided to delay the planned oil output increase by another month to the end of December.



Oil prices have been weighed by a sluggish post-Covid recovery in demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy and leading crude oil importer. In its monthly report released Tuesday, OPEC lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.6 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day.



The pressured prices were also conflagrated by a perceivably oversupplied market, especially as key oil producers outside the OPEC alliance like the U.S., Canada, Guyana and Brazil are also planning to add supply, Gloystein highlighted.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-bearish-year-ahead-for-oil"><a></a>Bearish year ahead for oil</h2>



The market consensus is that there’ll be a “substantial” oil stock build next year, said Citibank energy strategist Martoccia Francesco.



“Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double… reaching as much as 1.6 million barrels per day,” said Francesco.&nbsp;



Even if OPEC+ doesn’t unwind the cuts, the future ofl prices is still looking break. Citi analysts expect Brent price to average $60 per barrel next year.



Further fueling the bearish outlook is the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whose return is associated by some with a potential trade war, said analysts who spoke to CNBC.



“If we do get a trade war — and a lot of economists think that a trade war is possible, and particularly against China — we could see much, much lower prices,” said OPIS’ Kloza.



Trump has also touted a “drill baby drill” policy for U.S. producers, vowing to cut energy prices in half.



For that to happen to retail gasoline prices, oil would need to drop to “below $40” per barrel, said Matt Smith, Kpler’s lead oil analyst.



Right now, retail gasoline prices are at a “sweet spot” at $3 per gallon, where consumers do not feel the pinch and input prices are still sufficiently high for producers, Smith added.

FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, Russia

Oil could plunge to $40 in 2025 if OPEC unwinds voluntary production cuts, analysts say

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/104823443-GettyImages-869487498-820x461.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-551642" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/104823443-GettyImages-869487498-820x461.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/104823443-GettyImages-869487498-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/104823443-GettyImages-869487498-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/104823443-GettyImages-869487498-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/104823443-GettyImages-869487498-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/104823443-GettyImages-869487498.jpg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that he will not step down if President-elect Donald Trump asks for his resignation.



When asked whether he would resign if requested to by Trump, the Fed chair simply said: “No.” Powell subsequently told reporters that the president does not have the power to fire or demote him.



“Not permitted under the law,” Powell told reporters at a news conference, after the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point. 



Investors will be closely watching the president-elect’s contentious relationship with the Fed chair. Trump appointed Powell in 2017, but repeatedly lashed out against the central bank chief during his first term as president, arguing Powell was not easing monetary policy quickly enough.



Trump said in an October interview that the president should be able to weigh in on interest rate decisions.



“I don’t think I should be allowed to order it, but I think I have the right to put in comments as to whether the interest rates should go up or down,” Trump told Bloomberg News at the Economic Club of Chicago on Oct. 15.



As Covid-19 swept the nation in March 2020, Trump claimed the authority to remove Powell from office. The Fed chair’s term ends in 2026.



Powell also said Thursday that Trump’s election victory this week will not have any immediate impact on the central bank’s policy.&nbsp;



“In the near term, the election will have no effects on our policy decisions,” Powell told reporters.



The Republican Party also won a majority in the Senate in Tuesday’s election. If the GOP takes the House of Representatives as well, Trump should have an easier path to pass his economic agenda.&nbsp;



Steve Mnuchin, Trump’s former Treasury secretary, said the president-elect will likely focus on cutting taxes and imposing tariffs, particularly on China.  



Powell said the next administration’s policies could have an economic effect that would impact the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.&nbsp;But it is still too early to tell and the Fed is not making any assumptions, Powell said.&nbsp;



“It’s such an early stage,” Powell said. “We don’t know what the policies are, and once we know what they are, we won’t have a sense of when they’ll be implemented,” he said.

104823443-GettyImages-869487498

Powell says he would not resign as Fed chief if Trump asked for his resignation

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2048" height="1365" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108059394-1730955309734-gettyimages-2182206041-fc_1208661-scaled.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-551572" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108059394-1730955309734-gettyimages-2182206041-fc_1208661-scaled.jpeg 2048w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108059394-1730955309734-gettyimages-2182206041-fc_1208661-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108059394-1730955309734-gettyimages-2182206041-fc_1208661-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108059394-1730955309734-gettyimages-2182206041-fc_1208661-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108059394-1730955309734-gettyimages-2182206041-fc_1208661-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108059394-1730955309734-gettyimages-2182206041-fc_1208661-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Pictured here is a construction site of property developer Hongkong Land, in Shanghai on Nov. 4, 2024. Feature China | Future Publishing | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING – China is widely expected to unveil more stimulus on Friday after its parliament ends a five-day meeting.



Authorities here have ramped up stimulus announcements since late September, fueling a stock rally. President Xi Jinping led a meeting on Sept. 26 that called for strengthening fiscal and monetary support, and stopping the real estate market slump.



While the People’s Bank of China has already cut several interest rates, major increases in government debt and spending requires approval by the country’s parliament, called the National People’s Congress.



That approval could be granted at the weeklong meeting of the legislature’s standing committee. During a similar meeting in October of last year, authorities had approved a rare increase in China’s deficit to 3.8%, from 3%, according to state media.



Analysts expect an increase in the scale of fiscal support after Donald Trump — who has threatened harsh tariffs on Chinese goods — won the U.S. presidential election this week. But some are still cautious, warning that Beijing may remain conservative and not issue direct support to consumers.



When discussing planned fiscal support at a press conference last month, Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an emphasized the need to address local government debt problems.



At the parliamentary meeting so far, officials have reviewed a plan to increase the limit on how much debt local governments can issue, according to state media. The additional quota would go toward swapping out local governments’ hidden debt.



Nomura estimates that China has 50 trillion yuan to 60 trillion yuan ($7 trillion to $8.4 trillion) in such hidden debt, and expects Beijing could allow local authorities to increase deb issuance by 10 trillion yuan over the next few years.



That could save local governments 300 billion yuan in interest payments a year, Nomura said.



In recent years, the country’s real estate slump has drastically limited a significant source of local government revenues. Regional authorities have also had to spend on Covid-19 controls during the pandemic.



Even before then, local Chinese government debt had grown to 22% of GDP by the end of 2019, far more than the growth in revenue available to pay that debt, according to an International Monetary Fund report.

108059394-1730955309734-gettyimages-2182206041-fc_1208661

China expected to announce highly anticipated fiscal stimulus package

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108057984-1730831808377-gettyimages-2176083179-AFP_36JD9UV-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-551327" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108057984-1730831808377-gettyimages-2176083179-AFP_36JD9UV-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108057984-1730831808377-gettyimages-2176083179-AFP_36JD9UV-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108057984-1730831808377-gettyimages-2176083179-AFP_36JD9UV-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108057984-1730831808377-gettyimages-2176083179-AFP_36JD9UV-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108057984-1730831808377-gettyimages-2176083179-AFP_36JD9UV-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108057984-1730831808377-gettyimages-2176083179-AFP_36JD9UV.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Tesla CEO Elon Musk (R) joins former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during a campaign rally at the site of his first assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 5, 2024. Jim Watson | Afp | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



As Donald Trump celebrated his presidential victory early Wednesday morning, Elon Musk was right there with him.



“A star is born. Elon,” Trump said onstage at his Mar-a-Lago resort, thanking the world’s richest person for spending two weeks campaigning in Pennsylvania.



Musk, who poured at least $130 million into a pro-Trump campaign effort, turned Trump support into yet another full-time job in recent months, funding a swing-state operation to register voters and using his social media platform X to constantly tout his preferred candidate, frequently with misinformation.



Musk’s investment in Trump is already paying off, even though Trump doesn’t take office until Jan. 20.



Tesla shares soared 15% on Wednesday, adding roughly $15 billion in paper value to Musk’s net worth. The electric vehicle maker faces headwinds in the global market from China-based competitors, declining European sales and consumers’ growing distaste for his political views.



But with Musk cozying up to Trump, and the president-elect promising to slash the types of regulations that Musk abhors, Wall Street is betting Tesla, on balance, will be a beneficiary.



For Musk, the potential gains go well beyond Tesla.



During his victory speech, Trump also praised Musk’s SpaceX and thanked Musk for delivering Starlink Wi-Fi terminals to Hurricane-stricken parts of the U.S. That all leaves Musk with plenty of reasons to be optimistic that a second Trump administration will pay healthy dividends to him and his businesses.



Musk’s companies are currently embroiled in a range of probes and lawsuits from federal agencies pertaining to matters including alleged securities law violations, workplace safety, labor and civil rights violations, violations of federal environmental laws, consumer fraud and vehicle safety defects.



Given the executive branch’s outsized control over federal regulatory bodies, Musk can look forward to regulators and intelligence agencies winding down some or all of the 19 known ongoing federal investigations and lawsuits against Tesla, SpaceX and X, formerly known as Twitter.



At New York’s Madison Square Garden on Oct. 27, Musk was one of many Trump fans and surrogates to speak during an all-day rally. Much of the coverage of the event focused on comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s bigoted quips, including his description of Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage.”



Musk was introduced by Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick, who called the Tesla CEO the “greatest capitalist” in U.S. history. Lutnick said he and Musk were co-founders of the envisioned “Department of Government Efficiency” and he asked Musk how much he thought could be cut from the federal budget.



Musk answered “at least $2 trillion,” which is more than the federal government’s discretionary budget of $1.7 trillion. The remark received a scream from Lutnick and applause from the crowd.



Musk didn’t specify what he sought to cut, but he previously accused agencies including the SEC, Environmental Protection Agency and Federal Aviation Administration of regulatory overreach or infringing on his free speech rights.



He also accused the Biden administration of hiring too many IRS personnel, and has vocally objected to a so-called billionaires tax.



Having a role in a bespoke commission could give Musk power over federal agencies’ budgets, staffing and the ability to push for the elimination of inconvenient regulations.



Musk also said during a Tesla earnings call on Oct. 23, that he intended to use his sway with Trump to establish a “federal approval process for autonomous vehicles.” Currently, approvals happen at the state level.



Tesla has been working on driverless technology for more than a decade but hasn’t yet produced a robotaxi or vehicle safe to use without a human ready to steer or brake at any time.



Additionally, a Trump administration may agree to ramp up the government’s work with his companies.



Musk’s newest startup, xAI, is developing large language models and generative artificial intelligence software that aims to compete with similar products from Microsoft-backed OpenAI, Meta and others.&nbsp;



Meta recently announced its open-source Llama models were available to U.S. government agencies in the areas of defense and national security. And OpenAI is already working with the U.S. military after adding a retired U.S. Army general and former director of the National Security Agency to its board in June.



Musk didn’t respond to a request for comment.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-spacex-s-billions-in-federal-contracts">SpaceX’s billions in federal contracts</h2>



According to research on federal spending and prime contracts by FedScout, SpaceX has received more than $19 billion from contracts with the federal government since 2008, including from NASA, the U.S. Air Force and Space Force.



The company is on track to take in several billions of dollars annually from prime contracts with the federal government for years to come, according to FedScout CEO Geoff Orazem.



That number doesn’t include classified spending, smaller items like Starlink terminals, or spending that’s done at the state level via block grants from the federal government, like when the Federal Emergency Management Agency gives states assistance to help recover from natural disasters.



Meanwhile, Tesla has reported around $10 billion in sales of “automotive regulatory credits,” or environmental credits, since 2015, Orazem found by evaluating the company’s financial filings.



These incentives are largely derived from federal and state regulations in the U.S. that require automakers to sell some number of low-emission vehicles or buy credits from companies like Tesla, which often have an excess.



Regulatory credits were about 60% of Tesla’s net income in the second quarter of 2024, and 39% in the third quarter. Other government rebates on EV sales represented about 50% of Tesla’s third-quarter profit.



Trump hasn’t made clear whether he’ll maintain those rebates and regulatory credit programs. He previously said he may cut the federal $7,500 EV tax credit.



Additionally, Trump has promised to slash income taxes and to implement steep tariffs. While tariffs&nbsp;could help protect Tesla from Chinese competitors, such a move could involve significant disruption to Tesla’s automotive supply chain, which relies on some materials and parts from China.



When it comes to worker protections, Musk has been seeking to strike down the constitutional authority of the National Labor Relations Board through litigation. He may find such lawsuits are no longer needed if Trump is willing to eliminate or reduce the power of the agency, which is supposed to ensure that companies follow federal laws allowing workers to form unions and engage in collective bargaining with their employers.



Then there’s Musk’s involvement with sanctioned governments.



At SpaceX, Musk has withheld the use of Starlink, the company’s satellite internet service, over Taiwan, even for U.S. troops based there. The Wall Street Journal reported that Musk cut off access as a favor requested by Russian President Vladimir Putin allegedly on behalf of Chinese President Xi Jinping during a series of ongoing, frequent talks between the two men.



In response to the reports, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said if they were true, Musk’s conversations with Putin should be be federally investigated.



According to analysis by NBC News, Musk has repeatedly posted pro-Kremlin content to his hundreds of millions of followers on X. He even engaged with content from Tenet Media and its creators at least 60 times on the social network. Tenet was at the center of an alleged Russian covert operation to manipulate U.S. public opinion ahead of the 2024 election, according to the Department of Justice. 



While Vice President-elect JD Vance recently called Putin a U.S. adversary, Trump has frequently spoken of his affection for the Russian president, even since Russia’s devastating invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Kremlin officials have celebrated Trump’s victory in this week’s election.



Musk, who publicly endorsed Trump moments after the first assassination attempt on the former president in July, has said he intends to remain involved in U.S. politics for the long haul.



He said in a discussion on X on Tuesday that his super PAC would continue its work after the presidential election and would seek to influence the outcomes of midterms, intermediate elections and elections of local prosecutors across the U.S.



A priority, Musk said, would be to help elect district attorneys “who prosecute repeat violent criminals who are obviously a danger to people.”

108057984-1730831808377-gettyimages-2176083179-AFP_36JD9UV

How Elon Musk stands to cash in on Trump’s presidential victory

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058872-1730902372279-gettyimages-1197718058-jm1_4964-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-551324" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058872-1730902372279-gettyimages-1197718058-jm1_4964-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058872-1730902372279-gettyimages-1197718058-jm1_4964-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058872-1730902372279-gettyimages-1197718058-jm1_4964-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058872-1730902372279-gettyimages-1197718058-jm1_4964-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058872-1730902372279-gettyimages-1197718058-jm1_4964-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058872-1730902372279-gettyimages-1197718058-jm1_4964.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A man holds an American flag depicting president-elect Donald Trump at Parliament Square in London in 2020. Jeff J Mitchell | Getty Images News | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



The U.K. holds dear to its so-called “special relationship” with the U.S., priding itself on a long history of shared values and cultural, diplomatic, linguistic and commercial ties with the States.



London feels those long-standing bonds and geopolitical interests make its relationship with the U.S., well, special.



Whether that feeling of exceptionalism and unique closeness is appreciate or felt as keenly across the Atlantic has always been a bone of contention for London, however, and the bond between the U.S. and U.K. could be tested further when Donald Trump returns to the White House following his election win.



In the run-up to the vote, Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer had looked to strengthen the relationship with Trump, checking in on the Republican leader after an assassination attempt against him, and traveling to New York with Foreign Secretary David Lammy to dine with him at Trump Tower in September.



Congratulating the president-elect on his decisive win, Starmer posted on X that he looked forward to a collaborative partnership with Trump



“As the closest of allies, we stand shoulder to shoulder in defence of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise,” he commented, adding, “From growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the U.K.-U.S. special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come.”



Still, Starmer might have some groveling to do with a new Trump administration.



Tensions flared last month when Trump’s campaign team in October accused the Labour Party of “blatant foreign interference” in the presidential election after party activists travelled to the U.S. to help Harris’ campaign. Starmer and the party denied the accusations.



There’s no doubt that the leaders are cut from different cloths — the brash and unpredictable character of businessman-turned-politician Trump is a far cry from the more measured style of the former human rights lawyer who once took on big business in high-profile court cases.



Addressing British lawmakers on Wednesday, Starmer reacted to Trump’s win by reaffirming his commitment to good relations with the U.S., stating “it is absolutely crucial that we have a strong relationship, that strong special relationship forged in difficult circumstances, between the U.S. and the U.K.”



But Kemi Badenoch, the new leader of Britain’s opposition Conservative Party, which is more ideologically aligned with the Republicans, goaded Starmer over past criticism of Trump by the current Labour foreign minister who, in 2018, called Trump a “woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath” and a “profound threat to the international order” in a magazine article. Lammy has since said he would work with Trump and would look to persuade the infamously NATO-skeptic Republican to remain in the military alliance.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-uk-can-lie-low"><a></a>The UK can lie low</h2>



Economists say Britain should not expect any special treatment when a new Trump administration comes into force, but they note it’s unlikely the U.K would be a prime target for punitive policies, such as import tariffs, that could be levied on the European Union and China as Trump looks to boost America’s growth and competitiveness.



Trump has already threatened to revive a trade war that began during his first term in office, stating in his election campaign that he would raise tariffs on Chinese goods by 60-100%, and would impose a blanket 10% tariff (or potentially 20%) on all U.S. imports, a move opening up a new front in trade tensions with two of its largest trading partners, the EU and China. The U.K., now outside the European bloc, might find its post-Brexit position an advantage.



“The U.K. is, quite frankly, probably small enough to be off the radar,” Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt, told CNBC after Trump’s election win.



“We’re not part of the EU anymore. China and the EU are the big two [that will be targeted by Trump]. We won’t come into any issues around NATO commitments, because we meet our own. Whereas with Europe, Trump could conceivably say, ‘we’ll threaten you with a trade war, but if you increase your military spend and meet your NATO commitments, we’ll not put tariffs on,’” Pickering said, noting that “Trump likes to trade everything off.”



While “Starmer may have offended Trump at some point, or David Lammy might have offended America,” Pickering noted that “these are relatively small potatoes versus Trump’s issues with Europe and NATO or China containment. So I think with a bit of careful diplomacy, the U.K. and the U.S. can get on good terms quickly,” he said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Not so special anymore</h2>



Describing the “special relationship” as one of convenience for the U.S., Pickering said the U.K. could still maneuver itself to be useful to an incoming Trump government.



“The key thing for the U.K. is, can it reassert itself as this mid-Atlantic broker between America and Europe now that it’s outside of the EU? This was always the U.K.’s advantage — to be the English speaking common-law, American partner within the European Union, and by brokering that relationship, that allowed us to punch above our weight diplomatically.”



Whisper it, but the “special relationship” ceased to be special long ago, according to Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg.



“Apart from strong cooperation on intelligence gathering and few military aspects, all recent U.S. administrations have treated the U.K. as a normal mid-size European country,” Schmieding told CNBC Wednesday.



“That Trump and Starmer are apparently not fans of each other, to put it mildly, will not help in future U.S.-U.K. talks. But it is not the decisive factor, largely because for the U.S. will probably not be inclined to give any special treatment to any country in Europe,” he said.



Schmieding said it’s advisable for the U.K. to coordinate its response to Trump with its European neighbors, notably on how to react if Trump cuts U.S. military aid to Ukraine, as expected, meaning Europe is on the hook for the funding gap left by Ukraine’s strongest ally since Russia invaded in February 2022.



Although the picture has improved since Trump was last in office, from 2017 to 2021, the president-elect is likely to continue to harangue European members of NATO to increase their defense spending, a perennial bugbear for Trump.



NATO members committed in 2014 to spending 2% of their national gross domestic product on defense but laggards remain, including Germany, France, Italy, Turkey, Spain and Canada. Even the Netherlands, whose former leader Mark Rutte is now NATO chief, has failed to meet the spending pledge.



After being elected to office in July, Starmer made a “cast-iron commitment” to raise U.K. defense spending to 2.5% of GDP, but has refused to give a timetable for the increase. Still, the U.K. is in Trump’s good books when it comes to defense spend, with its expenditure in the arena standing at 2.3% of GDP in 2023, NATO figures show. The U.S. spent 3.2%, making it the second-largest spender after Poland, at 3.9%.



Trump rattled NATO members in February when he said he would not provide military protection to any member state that had not met its financial obligations to the bloc, and would even “encourage” adversaries “to do whatever the hell they want” to that nation.

108058872-1730902372279-gettyimages-1197718058-jm1_4964

Britain loves its ‘special relationship’ with the U.S. — but that doesn’t mean Trump will love it back

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106677114-15983545702020-08-25t100023z_1719720997_rc2yki97n9wc_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-tech-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-551143" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106677114-15983545702020-08-25t100023z_1719720997_rc2yki97n9wc_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-tech-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106677114-15983545702020-08-25t100023z_1719720997_rc2yki97n9wc_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-tech-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106677114-15983545702020-08-25t100023z_1719720997_rc2yki97n9wc_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-tech-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106677114-15983545702020-08-25t100023z_1719720997_rc2yki97n9wc_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-tech-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106677114-15983545702020-08-25t100023z_1719720997_rc2yki97n9wc_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-tech-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106677114-15983545702020-08-25t100023z_1719720997_rc2yki97n9wc_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-tech.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Chinese and U.S. flags flutter near The Bund, before U.S. trade delegation meet their Chinese counterparts for talks in Shanghai, China July 30, 2019. Aly Song | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING — Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential win has raised the bar for China’s fiscal stimulus plans, expected Friday.



On the campaign trial, Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods sold to the U.S. Increased duties of at least 10% under Trump’s first term as president did not dent America’s position as China’s largest trading partner.



But new tariffs — potentially on a larger scale — would come at a pivotal time for China. The country is relying more on exports for growth as it battles with a real estate slump and tepid consumer spending.



If Trump raises tariffs to 60%, that could reduce China’s exports by $200 billion, causing a 1 percentage point drag on GDP, Zhu Baoliang, a former chief economist at China’s economic planning agency, said at a Citigroup conference.



Since late September, Chinese authorities have ramped up efforts to support slowing economic growth. The standing committee of the National People’s Congress — the country’s parliament — is expected to approve additional fiscal stimulus at its meeting this week, which wraps up Friday.



“In response to potential ‘Trump shocks,’ the Chinese government is likely to introduce greater stimulus measures,” said Yue Su, principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “The overlap of the NPC meeting with the U.S. election outcome suggests the government is prepared to take swift action.”



She expects a stimulus package of more than 10 trillion yuan ($1.39 billion), with about 6 trillion yuan going towards local government debt swaps and bank recapitalization. More than 4 trillion yuan will likely go towards local government special bonds for supporting real estate, Su said. She did not specify over what time period.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-stock-market-divergence"><a></a>Stock market divergence</h2>



Mainland China and Hong Kong stocks fell Wednesday as it became clear that Trump would win the election. U.S. stocks then soared with the three major indexes hitting record highs. In Thursday morning trading, Chinese stocks tried to hold mild gains.



That divergence in stock performance indicates China’s stimulus “will be slightly bigger than the baseline scenario,” said Liqian Ren, who leads WisdomTree’s quantitative investment capabilities. She estimates Beijing will add about 2 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan a year in support.



Ren doesn’t expect significantly larger support due to uncertainties around how Trump might act. She pointed out that tariffs hurt both countries, but restrictions on tech and investment have a greater impact on China.



Trump, during his first term as president, put Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei on a blacklist that restricted it from using U.S. suppliers. The Biden administration expanded on those moves by limiting U.S. sales of advanced semiconductors to China, and pressuring allies to do the same.



Both Democrats and Republicans supported the passage of those newer export controls and efforts to boost semiconductor manufacturing investment in the U.S., Chris Miller, author of “Chip War,” pointed out earlier this year. He expected the U.S. to increase such restrictions regardless of who won the election.



China has doubled down on bolstering its own tech by encouraging bank loans to high-end manufacturing. But the country had long benefited from U.S. capital as well as the ability to use U.S. software and high-end parts.



Republicans gained a majority in the Senate for the next two years, according to NBC News projections, though control of the House of Representatives remains unclear.



“If the Republican Party gains control of Congress, protectionist measures could be accelerated, amplifying impacts on the global economy and presenting significant downside risks,” Su said.



She expects Trump will likely impose such tariffs in the first half of next year, and could speed up the process by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act or Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to impose tariffs of up to 15% in response to a serious balance-of-payments deficit.



U.S. data shows that the trade deficit with China narrowed to $279.11 billion in 2023, from $346.83 billion in 2016.



Su estimated that a 10% tariff increase on Chinese exports to the U.S. could reduce Beijing’s real GDP growth by an average of 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points in the next two years, assuming other factors remain constant.



China’s exports to the U.S. fell by 14% last year to $500.29 billion, according to customs data on Wind Information. That’s still up from $385.08 billion in 2016, before Trump was sworn in for his first term.



Meanwhile, China’s annual imports from the U.S. climbed to $164.16 billion in 2023, up from $134.4 billion in 2016, the Chinese data showed.



Other analysts believe that Beijing will remain conservative, and trickle out stimulus over the coming months rather than release a large package on Friday.



China’s top leaders typically meet in mid-December to discuss economic plans for the year ahead. Then, officials would announce the growth target for the year at an annual parliamentary meeting in March.



“China will likely face much higher tariff from the U.S. next year. I expect policy response from China to also take place next year when higher tariff is imposed,” Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note Wednesday afternoon.



“I also don’t think the government will change the policies they already proposed to the NPC because of US election,” he said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>China’s growing global trade influence</h2>



Regardless of tariffs, China remains an export powerhouse to markets outside the U.S.



“Chinese exports have indeed shifted a bit in the past few years in terms of destination, with the U.S. representing less than 15% of total Chinese exports in 2023, compared with nearly 18% on average in the 2010s,” Francoise Huang, senior economist for Asia-Pacific and global trade at&nbsp;Allianz&nbsp;Trade, said in September.



“While China has lost market share in the U.S., it’s clearly been gaining in other places,” she said. “For example, China now represents more than 25% of ASEAN imports, compared with less than 18% in the 2010s.”



China’s exports have also grown to countries that sell to the U.S., a Federal Reserve report found in August.



— CNBC’s Dylan Butts contributed to this report.

106677114-15983545702020-08-25t100023z_1719720997_rc2yki97n9wc_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-tech

Trump win and threat of more tariffs raises expectations for more China stimulus

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108012507-1722016734915-gettyimages-2162908988-AA_26072024_1789841-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-550942" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108012507-1722016734915-gettyimages-2162908988-AA_26072024_1789841-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108012507-1722016734915-gettyimages-2162908988-AA_26072024_1789841-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108012507-1722016734915-gettyimages-2162908988-AA_26072024_1789841-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108012507-1722016734915-gettyimages-2162908988-AA_26072024_1789841-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108012507-1722016734915-gettyimages-2162908988-AA_26072024_1789841-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108012507-1722016734915-gettyimages-2162908988-AA_26072024_1789841.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Former US President Donald Trump (L) shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) as they pose for a photo within their meeting at Mar-a-Lago estate, in Palm Beach, Florida, United States on July 26, 2024.  Amos Ben-Gershom | Anadolu | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



A flurry of world leaders on Wednesday sent their congratulations to President-elect Donald Trump after the 78-year-old triumphantly declared a “magnificent” victory.



NBC News has projected Trump will win the presidential race.



Addressing his supporters in Florida, Trump said his return to the White House would usher in the “golden age” of America.



U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer congratulated Trump on his “historic” election victory, saying the U.K.-U.S. “special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come.”



Likewise, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban all offered their congratulations to Trump.



Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy congratulated Trump on what he described as his “impressive election victory.”



“I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together,” Zelenskyy via social media.



“We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership. We rely on continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States,” he added.



Zelenskyy’s comments come as tensions are likely to be running high in Kyiv, with the U.S. vote regarded as a potentially make-or-break moment in the country’s yearslong fight against Russia.



Ukrainian officials were said to be closely watching the result amid concerns that future military aid to the Eastern European country could be cut — a move that would significantly curtail Kyiv’s ability to fight back against Russia’s full-scale invasion.



Russia, meanwhile, appeared to be buoyed by news that Trump has secured a White House victory.



“Trump has one quality that is useful to us: as a businessman to the core, he mortally dislikes spending money on various hangers-on and freeloaders – on idiotic allies, on stupid charity projects and on gluttonous international organizations,” Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president, said via Telegram, according to an NBC translation.



Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said via Telegram: “Kamala Harris was right when she quoted Psalm 31:5: ‘Weeping may stay for the night, but rejoicing comes in the morning.’”



“Hallelujah, I’d add from my part,” Zakharova said, according to an NBC translation 



Separately, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said Trump’s leadership would be key to keeping the military alliance strong.



“I look forward to working with him again to advance peace through strength through #NATO,” Rutte said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-turkey-india-australia-israel-and-iran"><a></a>Turkey, India, Australia, Israel and Iran</h2>



Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan congratulated Trump on his election victory.



“In this new period that will begin with the elections of the American people, I hope that Turkey-US relations will strengthen, that regional and global crises and wars, especially the Palestinian issue and the Russia-Ukraine war, will come to an end; I believe that more efforts will be made for a more just world,” Erdoğan said.



“I hope that the elections will be beneficial for our friendly and allied people in the United States and for all of humanity,” he added.



Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Trump on his “historic election victory.”



“As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. Together, let’s work for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity,” Modi said.



Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also offered his congratulations to Trump.



“Australians and Americans are great friends and true allies. Working together, we can ensure the partnership between our nations and peoples remains strong into the future,” Albanese said.



Elsewhere, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offered his congratulations to both Donald and Melania Trump.



“Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback! Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America,” Netanyahu said. “This is a huge victory!” he added.



Not everyone sent their warm wishes to Trump, however.



“The U.S. presidential election holds no direct relevance to Iran, as the fundamental policies of both the United States and Iran remain unchanged,” Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said in a statement, according to the country’s semiofficial news agency, Tasnim.



“It makes little difference who becomes president, as there will be no impact on people’s livelihoods,” Mohajerani said.

108012507-1722016734915-gettyimages-2162908988-AA_26072024_1789841

‘A huge victory’: World leaders react as Trump secures White House return

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-2182880212-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-550881" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-2182880212-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-2182880212-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-2182880212-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-2182880212-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-2182880212-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-2182880212-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">RALEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA &#8211; NOVEMBER 04: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump takes the stage during a campaign rally at the J.S. Dorton Arena on November 04, 2024 in Raleigh, North Carolina. With one day left before the general election, Trump is campaigning for re-election in the battleground states of North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump will defeat his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, and return to the White House for another four years, NBC News projects.



After losing his reelection bid to President Joe Biden in 2020, Trump, the 45th president, will now become the 47th.



Trump’s victory marks a series of historic firsts. At 78, he is the oldest person ever to win a U.S. presidential election. He will be the first president in 132 years — since Grover Cleveland — to serve two nonconsecutive terms in office. And he emerged victorious from what is likely the most expensive presidential race in history.



He is also the first president, current or former, ever to be convicted of crimes. He is the first twice-impeached president ever to win back the White House. He is the first president ever to take office while fending off criminal charges in multiple active federal and state cases.



Trump’s win denies Harris, the vice president, what would have been her own historic milestone: becoming the first woman president of the United States.



It also represents a staggering political achievement for Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, who won his first election just two years earlier.



Just 40 years old, Vance, a former Trump critic turned loyalist and top advocate for the president-elect’s right-wing populist movement, is now first in the presidential line of succession.



If Trump pursues his campaign promises, his second administration will soon set out to enact an ambitious, controversial agenda centered on deep tax cuts, mass deportations and reshaped relationships with foreign leaders.



Trump has also vowed to impose heavy tariffs, claiming that they will simultaneously boost U.S. revenues, strengthen domestic industries and deter unwanted foreign competition.



Mainstream economists have repeatedly warned that the tariffs, which are taxes paid by U.S. importers, will raise prices on American consumers.



It remains to be seen to what extent Trump’s presidential agenda will resemble the sum of his many claims as a candidate.



He has vowed to pardon his supporters who violently rioted at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.



He has assured that he will quickly broker an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a vague stance that threatens to undo the Biden administration’s policy of strong support for Kyiv.



He has said he would put Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a vocal vaccine skeptic, in charge of health policy, and tap billionaire Tesla CEO Elon Musk to propose trillions of dollars in government spending cuts.



He has denied Democrats’ warnings that he will behave in office like a dictator, “except for Day One.”



The campaign that delivered Trump’s election was no less historic.



Trump survived an assassination attempt in mid-July, when Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old registered Republican who had donated to a Democratic group, opened fire with an AR-15-style rifle during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. Crooks fatally shot one rally attendee, and one of his bullets grazed Trump’s ear, streaking his face with blood.



Trump’s immediate reaction to the shooting — pumping his fist and defiantly telling his supporters to “fight!” as Secret Service agents rushed him off stage — instantly became a defining moment of the campaign.



Just a few days later, the race was shaken up again.



In late July, Harris, 60, was catapulted to the top of the Democratic presidential ticket after Biden announced he would no longer seek reelection.



Biden’s stunning decision, which made him the first incumbent president since Lyndon Johnson to voluntarily end his White House stay, was one he had initially resisted.



The 81-year-old and his allies, including Harris, had vociferously defended his physical and mental fitness for four more years as president.



But a simmering undercurrent of Democratic uneasiness dramatically boiled over after a shocking debate performance in late June, when a frail and distracted-looking Biden delivered raspy, halting and inarticulate answers versus Trump.



Less than a month later, amid a collapse in internal support and dwindling poll numbers, Biden ended his campaign and backed Harris as his replacement.



The switch effectively reset the race, forcing Trump to throw out many of his well-rehearsed attacks and adapt to an opponent unburdened by Biden’s most glaring weaknesses.



It wasn’t a seamless transition: Harris bested Trump in the candidates’ one and only debate in mid-September, and Trump declined her repeated challenges to face off again.



But polls gradually showed the race tightening, as Trump’s campaign worked to blame Harris for the inflation and immigration woes that had dragged down Biden’s approval ratings throughout his presidency.



This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

Donald Trump Campaigns For President In Raleigh, North Carolina

Donald Trump defeats Kamala Harris to win 2024 presidential election

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058638-1730878289255-gettyimages-2183214745-_s1_8329_zo2b6egr-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-550810" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058638-1730878289255-gettyimages-2183214745-_s1_8329_zo2b6egr-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058638-1730878289255-gettyimages-2183214745-_s1_8329_zo2b6egr-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058638-1730878289255-gettyimages-2183214745-_s1_8329_zo2b6egr-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058638-1730878289255-gettyimages-2183214745-_s1_8329_zo2b6egr-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058638-1730878289255-gettyimages-2183214745-_s1_8329_zo2b6egr-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058638-1730878289255-gettyimages-2183214745-_s1_8329_zo2b6egr-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an election night event at the Palm Beach Convention Center on November 06, 2024 in West Palm Beach, Florida. 
Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Donald Trump declared victory in the presidential election early Wednesday morning, as the Republican led Kamala Harris in projected Electoral College votes in the presidential election.



Neither Trump nor Harris has secured the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House, but after NBC News projected he will win Pennsylvania, the former president was just four electoral votes short of that goal.



“I want to thank the American people for the extraordinary honor of being elected your 47th president and your 45th president,” Trump told supporters at the West Palm Beach, Florida, Convention Center, where he was flanked by family members and top members of his campaign.



“We’re going to help our country heal,” Trump said. “We’re going to fix everything about our country.”



“We made history for a reason tonight,” he said. “This will truly be the golden age of America.”



Trump during his speech praised Tesla CEO Elon Musk for supporting him in his campaign, which included the “We have a new star, a star is born, Elon!” Trump said of Musk, who is the richest person in the world.



Trump also touted his support from Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent candidate who ended his campaign for president.



Trump said Kennedy, a vaccine skeptic and conspiracy theorist, would play a key role in determining health-care policy in his administration.



Harris had been expected to address her own supporters Tuesday night at the Democrat’s alma mater, Howard University, in Washington, D.C.



But the vice president opted not to speak, and instead plans to do so later Wednesday.



This is developing news. Check back for updates.

108058638-1730878289255-gettyimages-2183214745-_s1_8329_zo2b6egr

Trump declares victory as presidential race with Harris has yet to be called

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106621131-15949940512020-07-16t171324z_1245378320_rc2huh9ed5wu_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-travel-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-550005" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106621131-15949940512020-07-16t171324z_1245378320_rc2huh9ed5wu_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-travel-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106621131-15949940512020-07-16t171324z_1245378320_rc2huh9ed5wu_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-travel-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106621131-15949940512020-07-16t171324z_1245378320_rc2huh9ed5wu_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-travel-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106621131-15949940512020-07-16t171324z_1245378320_rc2huh9ed5wu_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-travel-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106621131-15949940512020-07-16t171324z_1245378320_rc2huh9ed5wu_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-travel-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/106621131-15949940512020-07-16t171324z_1245378320_rc2huh9ed5wu_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-travel.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A flag stall at the Yiwu Wholesale Market in Zhejiang province, China, on May 10, 2019. Aly Song | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING — The size of China’s highly anticipated stimulus plans will likely depend on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, analysts said.



Investors expect Beijing to announce details on fiscal support Friday. That’s when the standing committee of the National People’s Congress — China’s parliament — is due to wrap up a five-day meeting. The same gathering last year oversaw a rare increase in the fiscal deficit.



This year, the meeting’s timing means any details will be out just days after the U.S. has voted Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat rival Kamala Harris in as the next president. Polls are set to close Tuesday local time.



“The size of China’s fiscal stimulus package would be around 10~20% bigger under a Trump win than under the scenario of a Harris win,” Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said in a note last week.



He cautioned that most of China’s challenges are domestic, though there will be some impact from the U.S. election result.



Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on U.S. imports from China by 60% — or reportedly by even 200% in an extreme scenario. Harris, currently vice president, has not yet signaled a major departure from the Biden administration’s approach of restricting China’s access to advanced technology.



More tariffs would hit China’s exports, a bright spot in an economy grappling with a real estate slump and tepid consumer demand.



Increased trade restrictions would require China to rely more on domestic demand to boost growth, Zhu Bin, chief economist of Nanhua Futures, said in a video presentation last week. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language comments.



“Without question we can be certain of one thing — if Trump wins the election, China’s domestic stimulus will only be larger, not smaller,” Zhu said. He expects Trump has a greater chance of winning, which he said would increase downward pressure on the Chinese yuan versus the U.S. dollar.



Political analysts debate whether China’s relations with the U.S. would be better under Trump or Harris.



“I think at this point, probably from China’s view, a potential president Harris [makes it] easier to expect what policies likely come,” said Liqian Ren, leader of quantitative investment at WisdomTree.



That doesn’t mean Beijing will embark on large-scale support. Chinese authorities are “constrained by the U.S.-China competition, so the priority number one is to be able to upgrade technology across the board,” She said. “I think as long as that’s your goal then the government’s willingness to stimulate is still going to be lukewarm.”



Ren expects the scale of stimulus will be determined not by who wins the election, but the stock market reaction.



Market volatility in China, but not the United states, is likely to make “China feel more obligated to counter this volatility,” she said. In contrast to three or four years ago, Ren said, Chinese stock market volatility today has a greater impact on economic confidence.



Chinese stocks have tempered their gains in recent weeks after surging in late September. Chinese President Xi Jinping on Sept. 26 led a high-level meeting calling for strengthening fiscal and monetary policy support, and halting the decline in real estate.



While the People’s Bank of China has cut interest rates, the Ministry of Finance has yet to release details on widely anticipated fiscal stimulus. Finance Minister Lan Fo’an last month hinted at an increase in the deficit, and indicated any changes needed to undergo an approval process before being announced.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-how-large"><a></a>How large？</h2>



Analyst forecasts for additional debt issuance vary. China is considering more than 10 trillion yuan in debt issuance over a few years, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing sources.



Chinese authorities may not announce a specific number, but if they do, it should be more than 4 trillion yuan, given that was the amount issued in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, said Zong Liang, chief researcher at Bank of China. He expects the deficit could be expanded beyond 4%.



The Chinese government set a deficit target of 3% for this year, after increasing it to 3.8% late last year.



WisdomTree’s Ren said her analysis of official statements, media reports and investment notes revealed that stimulus expectations are inherently about the same. Whether it is 10 trillion yuan over three to five years, or 2 trillion yuan in one year, the average is about 2 trillion yuan in support a year, she pointed out.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-consumption-still-in-question"><a></a>Consumption still in question</h2>



“I think people right now are focusing a lot on the topline number,” Ren said. “But they are missing [how] the local government, they are doing a lot of things that are actually counter[ing] stimulus.”



She noted how local authorities have so strictly enforced tax collection in some areas that they have discouraged business activity. Despite some central government support, she said, she expects it will “probably be quite a while” before local authorities “feel they have the cash to spend.”



Dozens of companies in China this year disclosed in stock exchange filings that they have received notices from local authorities to pay back taxes tied to operations as far back as 1994. Local governments once relied on land sales to real estate developers for revenue.



The finance ministry has emphasized its focus on addressing local government debt problems. Analysts have pointed out how additional stimulus will also likely go toward banks, not direct handouts to consumers.



Consumption stimulus may come more from property support at this stage, Citi analysts said in a report Friday. “Having said that, we believe more decisive consumption support could still be a realistic option under more adverse tariff scenarios.”

106621131-15949940512020-07-16t171324z_1245378320_rc2huh9ed5wu_rtrmadp_0_usa-china-travel

China gears up for a big week as markets await U.S. elections and stimulus details

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-548676" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Line-up of pumpkins in the Netherlands, on Oct. 27, 2024. Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Inflation in the 20-nation euro zone rose to 2% in October, preliminary figures released by statistics agency Eurostat showed Thursday.



Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a headline figure of 1.9%. The September headline reading was revised down to 1.7% from 1.8% on Oct. 17, below market expectations.



The biggest upward pull in the headline rate came from food, alcohol and tobacco, where price rises accelerated to 2.9% from 2.4%.



Core inflation, which excludes those volatile components along with energy prices, was unchanged at 2.7%, slightly higher than the 2.6% expected. Services inflation — an important gauge of domestic price pressures — also held steady at 3.9%.



The euro was up 0.17% against the U.S. dollar shortly after the release, trading at a two-week high of $1.0873.



The fresh Thursday inflation print is seen as crucial in judging whether the European Central Bank could consider implementing a jumbo half-percentage-point cut in interest rates at its next meeting in December.



The central bank has so far trimmed rates three times this year, making quarter-point increments that altogether took the central bank’s key rate from 4% to 3.25%.



Markets are currently pricing another 25-basis-point reduction in December.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-euro-zone-growth"><a></a>Euro zone growth</h2>



Traders are also considering the latest growth figures for the euro area, which showed better-than-expected 0.4% expansion in the third quarter, even as analysts predicted further weakness ahead.



The ECB said during its October meeting that the process of disinflation was “well on track” and that sluggishness in the euro zone’s economic activity had added to its confidence that inflation will not resurge dramatically.



“Hotter eurozone inflation, stronger growth and record low unemployment wipe out bets for a 50 [basis point] cut,” Kyle Chapman, foreign exchange market analyst at Ballinger Group, said in a note.



Chapman said that, while an uptick in consumer price growth was expected toward the end of the year, services inflation remained sticky.



“A big concern underpinning the risks of inflation undershooting the target was a potential tipping point with the labor market, the surprising resilience of which could be at risk of a sharp unwind in labor hoarding if consumption worsens. That concern is no longer so significant,” Chapman stressed, pointing to this week’s growth and employment figures.



“Back-to-back 25 [basis point] moves are the way to go. The need for below-neutral rates to rescue a contracting eurozone economy is fading from the discussion, and that negates the need to hurry the easing cycle, particularly with services inflation struggling to come unstuck.”

108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9

Euro zone inflation rises to higher-than-expected 2%, weakening case for jumbo rate cut

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-548613" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Robots manufacture auto parts at a factory in Ningde, China, on Oct. 17, 2024. Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING — China’s official purchasing managers’ index for October came in at 50.1, in expansionary territory for the first time since April, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Thursday.



The data beat expectations for 49.9, according to a Reuters poll. September’s reading was 49.8. The last time the PMI was above the 50-point line that determines contraction from activity was in April, with a reading of 50.4.



“I expect the economic momentum to improve moderately in Q4 as monetary and fiscal policies [loosen],” Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist, at Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note.



China’s parliament standing committee is scheduled to meet next week, and is widely expected to release details on fiscal stimulus after the gathering ends on Nov. 8.



The sub-index for production came in at 52 for October, while that of new orders was 50. Raw materials inventory ticked up to 48.2, still in contraction territory, along with employment at 48.4, which was mildly better than the prior month.



The statistics bureau’s PMI for non-manufacturing activity rose to 50.2 in October. That was up from 50 in September but below August’s 50.3 print.



The employment portion of the non-manufacturing PMI climbed by 1.1 percentage points to 45.8.



A survey released Wednesday by the U.S.-based China Beige Book of 1,436 Chinese businesses between Oct. 18 and 25 found that manufacturing output improved from a year ago. New domestic and export orders also picked up, with export orders from the U.S. falling less sharply in October.



The Caixin China general manufacturing PMI for October is due out Friday, while the Caixin China general services PMI is scheduled for release Nov. 5.



China’s economic growth has slowed, dragged down by tepid consumer demand and a real estate slump. Exports have been a rare bright spot.



Stocks rallied after a series of high-profile stimulus announcements in the last several weeks, including a meeting led in late September by Chinese President Xi Jinping that called for strengthening fiscal and monetary policy support.

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China’s factory activity expands for the first time since April, official survey shows

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108052833-1729838789268-gettyimages-2173221937-AA_23092024_1869906-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-547489" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108052833-1729838789268-gettyimages-2173221937-AA_23092024_1869906-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108052833-1729838789268-gettyimages-2173221937-AA_23092024_1869906-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108052833-1729838789268-gettyimages-2173221937-AA_23092024_1869906-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108052833-1729838789268-gettyimages-2173221937-AA_23092024_1869906-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108052833-1729838789268-gettyimages-2173221937-AA_23092024_1869906-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108052833-1729838789268-gettyimages-2173221937-AA_23092024_1869906.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves makes a speech during the Labour Party Conference that is held at the ACC Liverpool Convention Center in Liverpool, UK on September 23, 2024.  Anadolu | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



LONDON — U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will deliver the government’s hotly awaited debut budget on Wednesday, putting to bed weeks of uncertainty over potential tax hikes and spending cuts.



The fiscal announcement — Labour’s first in almost 15 years — has been the source of much speculation, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer warning of “painful” decisions as his administration seeks to square what it says is a “black hole” in the public finances with its wider pro-growth agenda.



Reeves brought some clarity to that narrative on Thursday, by confirming that she would use her budget to announce a widely anticipated change to the U.K.’s debt rules in a bid to free up billions of pounds for investment. However, she did not specify exactly what the investment rule would change.



“We will measure debt differently. But, of course, we will put guardrails in place,” Reeves told Sky News Thursday, following her initial announcement in the Financial Times.



Reports suggest that the Treasury could target public sector net financial liabilities (PSNFL) in the U.K.’s measure of debt, rather than public sector net debt. The PSNFL measure takes in a wider account of the government’s balance sheet, including financial assets and liabilities, than public sector net debt. The Treasury declined to comment on the proposals.



In a note Friday, Goldman Sachs estimated that the changes could increase the government’s fiscal headroom by around £50 billion ($65 billion). Still, Goldman Sachs noted that the Treasury was unlikely to use all of that added leeway, and that any increase would be phased in gradually “over several years.”



“We think that the Chancellor would be very unlikely to use all the resulting fiscal space and would instead leave a much larger margin of headroom against the debt rule,” Goldman sachs said in the note.



As such, Reeves is still expected to rely heavily on a raft of tax changes to fill what she has described as a £100 billion spending gap ($129.6 billion) over the next five years. Here’s a look at what might change.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-changes-to-expect"><a></a>What changes to expect</h2>



Labour has repeatedly ruled out increases to income tax, National Insurance social security payments, value-added tax (a sales levy) and corporation tax, insisting it would not renege on pledges outlined in its election manifesto.



More recently, however, the government has shifted its narrative to avoiding tax rises for “working people,” suggesting that changes for higher earners and employers could be on the table.



Starmer fanned speculation last week when he said in an interview with Sky News that people who own shares would not fall within his “definition” of working people. The Treasury later clarified that it was possible for a working person to have a small amount of shares.



The government has also failed to rule out potential changes to National Insurance tax on employers’ pension contributions, which would see business owners pay more to employ workers.



Reports suggest that Reeves could extend the freeze on personal income tax thresholds introduced by the former Conservative government. While the policy does not raise headline income tax rates, it is often dubbed a “stealth tax” as it ultimately drags workers into paying more tax as pay rises tip them into higher tax brackets.



Elsewhere, changes to inheritance tax (IHT) and capital gains tax (CGT) remain on the table as the government seeks to reduce wealth imbalances across the country. That comes even as plans to introduce new levies on Britain’s “non-doms” could be watered down amid concerns it would fail to raise revenues and instead spark a wealth exodus.



Analysts have expressed mixed views over the expected measures, noting that Reeves has a fine line to tread in balancing the books. Goldman Sachs estimated in its Friday note that the government could need to raise £25 billion annually to meet its spending targets.



“Our broad message is that Chancellor Reeves will attempt to navigate a tight set of public finances to meet her dual aims of avoiding material real term cuts in non-protected spending and to raise public investment. Tax increases will be needed to help achieve these,” Investec said in a note Thursday.



Duncan Edwards, CEO of BritishAmerican Business, warned the government against going too far with measures that could harm business.



“Raising taxes, making it more expensive to do business here, penalizing investment through raising capital gains tax and so on, looks like a strange approach to delivering that growth agenda,” Edwards told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>UK market jitters</h2>



Reeves has faced criticism for not holding the budget closer to Labour’s July 4 election, with critics saying the delay has cast a cloud of uncertainty over the economy and businesses.



Consumer confidence fell in October to its lowest level since March, when former chancellor Jeremy Hunt delivered his last budget, the fresh GfK showed Friday. Business confidence also slipped to an 11-month low this month, S&amp;P Global flash figures indicated Thursday.



Meanwhile, government borrowing costs have risen sharply as memories of former-Prime Minister Liz Truss’s catastrophic September 2022 “mini-budget” remain close to mind. U.K. bond yields climbed following Reeves’ debt rule announcement Thursday, with 10-year gilt yields hovering near a 16-week high at 4.24%. Still, analysts ruled out the possibility of a similar market meltdown.



“Is this going to be a Liz Truss moment? We don’t think so whatsoever,” Andrzej Szczepaniak, vice president of European economics at Nomura, told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Friday.



“Actually, now the government can carve out investment,” he continued. “That’s actually fairly positive for the U.K. economy. It has a long structural underinvestment situation versus its peers in the G7.”



Such increases to infrastructure investment have been recommended by the International Monetary Fund, which on Thursday raised its growth outlook for the U.K. It now expects the economy to expand 1.1% in 2024, up from its earlier estimate of 0.7%.



“This level of endorsement to these changes will have helped contain bond market reaction and avoid a big strop-out,” Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, wrote in a note Friday.



— CNBC’s Sam Meredith contributed to this report.

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