<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108032514-1726060173981-gettyimages-2169789390-TARGET_FLAGSHIP-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-529707" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108032514-1726060173981-gettyimages-2169789390-TARGET_FLAGSHIP-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108032514-1726060173981-gettyimages-2169789390-TARGET_FLAGSHIP-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108032514-1726060173981-gettyimages-2169789390-TARGET_FLAGSHIP-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108032514-1726060173981-gettyimages-2169789390-TARGET_FLAGSHIP-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108032514-1726060173981-gettyimages-2169789390-TARGET_FLAGSHIP-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108032514-1726060173981-gettyimages-2169789390-TARGET_FLAGSHIP.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



Inflation in August declined to its lowest level since February 2021, according to a Labor Department report Wednesday that also showed a key measure higher than expected, setting the stage for an expected quarter percentage point rate cut from the Federal Reserve.



The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, increased 0.2% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones consensus, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.



That put the 12-month inflation rate at 2.5%, down 0.4 percentage point from the July level, slightly below the estimate for 2.6% and at its lowest level in 3½ years.



However, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% for the month, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate. The 12-month core inflation rate held at 3.2%, in line with the forecast.



The slight uptick in core CPI keeps the Fed on defense against inflation, likely negating the probability of a more aggressive interest rate when policymakers meet next Tuesday and Wednesday.



“This isn’t the CPI report the market wanted to see. With core inflation coming in higher than expected, the Fed’s path to a 50 basis point cut has become more complicated,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.



Stocks slumped following the report, while Treasury yields were mixed. However, the market rebounded later in the day, recouping its losses as the major averages all turned positive.



In the fed funds futures market, traders priced in an 85% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will approve a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis point, interest rate reduction when its meeting concludes Sept. 18, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure. A month ago, markets were leaning towards a 50 basis point cut.



“The number is certainly not an obstacle to policy action next week, but the hawks on the committee will likely seize on today’s CPI report as evidence that the last mile of inflation needs to be handled with care and caution – a formidable reason to default to a 25 basis points reduction,” Shah added.



While the numbers showed that inflation slowly continued to moderate, housing-related costs remain an issue. The shelter component of the CPI, which has about a one-third weighting in the index, climbed 0.5%, accounting for about 70% of the core increase. The shelter index was up 5.2% year over year.



Food prices rose just 0.1%, while energy costs slid 0.8%.



Elsewhere in the report, used vehicle prices decreased 1%, medical care services declined 0.1% and apparel prices increased 0.3%. Egg prices rose 4.8%.



Real earnings also increased for the month, with average hourly earnings outpacing the monthly CPI increase by 0.2%, the BLS said in a separate release. On a 12-month basis, inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings rose 1.3%.



The Fed’s attention of late, however, has turned to a slowing labor market. Job creation since April has slowed to nearly half what it was in the prior five months. Central bankers are saying that preventing a broader slowdown is now about as important as the fight against inflation, which in the summer of 2022 hit its highest level in more than 40 years.



Regardless of what the Fed decides when its meeting concludes next Wednesday, markets already are pricing in lower rates. Treasury yields, particularly at the 2- and 10-year duration, are at their lowest levels in more than a year. A recession indicator known as an inverted yield curve has reversed recently, a move that often portends both rate cuts from the Fed as well as a slowdown in the economy.



Wednesday’s report offered more evidence that inflation is waning, though it remains above the Fed’s 2% goal. There are pockets where prices either stayed elevated or turned higher.



“Although inflation has eased, it does not mean that the prices of things that people buy have actually fallen,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. “It just means that prices are not increasing as fast. In fact, U.S. consumers now are paying more than 20% more for goods and services than they were before the pandemic.”



Airline fares, for instance, increased 3.9% in August after falling the previous five months. Motor vehicle insurance also continued its trek higher, rising 0.6% to push the 12-month increase to 16.5%. Hospital and related services costs jumped 0.4% and are up 5.8% from last year.



At the same time, a pullback in energy costs has helped bring down inflation figures. Gasoline was off 0.6% in August and is down 10.3% from a year ago, part of a 4% slide in the energy index that has included a 12.1% tumble for fuel oil prices.

108032514-1726060173981-gettyimages-2169789390-TARGET_FLAGSHIP

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2% in August as annual inflation rate hits lowest since early 2021

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="548" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/7BCG6QNXMJLJZG2Q5Z4UAZGMHE-820x548.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-529650" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/7BCG6QNXMJLJZG2Q5Z4UAZGMHE-820x548.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/7BCG6QNXMJLJZG2Q5Z4UAZGMHE-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/7BCG6QNXMJLJZG2Q5Z4UAZGMHE-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/7BCG6QNXMJLJZG2Q5Z4UAZGMHE-768x513.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/7BCG6QNXMJLJZG2Q5Z4UAZGMHE-1536x1026.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/7BCG6QNXMJLJZG2Q5Z4UAZGMHE-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield attends a United Nations Security Council meeting about the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, at the U.N. headquarters in New York City, U.S., September 4, 2024. REUTERS/David &#8216;Dee&#8217; Delgado/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



UNITED NATIONS, Sept 12 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The United States supports creating two permanent United Nations Security Council seats for African states and one seat to be rotated among small island developing states, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield will announce on Thursday.



The move comes as the U.S. seeks to repair ties with Africa, where many are unhappy about Washington&#8217;s support for Israel&#8217;s war in Gaza, and deepen relations with Pacific Islands nations important to countering Chinese influence in the region.



Thomas-Greenfield told Reuters she hopes the announcement will &#8220;move this agenda forward in a way that we can achieve Security Council reform at some point in the future,&#8221; describing it as part of U.S. President Joe Biden&#8217;s legacy.



The push for two permanent African seats and a rotating seat for small island developing states is in addition to Washington&#8217;s long-held support for India, Japan and Germany to also get permanent seats on the council.



Developing nations have long demanded permanent seats on the Security Council, the most powerful body in the United Nations. But years of talks on reform have proved fruitless and it is unclear whether U.S. support could fuel action.



Ahead of making the announcement at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on Thursday, Thomas-Greenfield clarified to Reuters that Washington does not support expanding veto power beyond the five countries that hold it.



The Security Council is charged with maintaining international peace and security and has the power to impose sanctions and arms embargos and authorize the use of force.



When the U.N. was founded in 1945, the Security Council had 11 members. This increased in 1965 to 15 members, made up of 10 elected states serving two-year terms and five permanent veto-wielding nations: Russia, China, France, the U.S. and Britain.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-legitimacy-problem">LEGITIMACY PROBLEM</h2>



U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres backs Security Council reform.



&#8220;You have a Security Council that corresponds exactly to the situation after the Second World War &#8230; that has a problem of legitimacy, and that has a problem of effectiveness, and it needs to be reformed,&#8221; Guterres told Reuters on Wednesday.



Any changes to the Security Council membership is done by amending the founding U.N. Charter. This needs the approval and ratification by two-thirds of the General Assembly, including the Security Council&#8217;s current five veto powers.



The 193-member U.N. General Assembly has annually discussed reform of the Security Council for more than a decade. But momentum has grown in recent years as geopolitical rivalries have deadlocked the council on several issues, particularly after permanent veto-wielding member Russia invaded Ukraine.



&#8220;Much of the conversation around Security Council reform has been just that: a conversation,&#8221; Thomas-Greenfield will say on Thursday, according to prepared remarks reviewed by Reuters of her announcement that Washington supports moving to negotiations on a draft text to amend the U.N. Charter to expand the council.



Thomas-Greenfield told Reuters she could not say how long it might take to get the General Assembly to vote on such a resolution.



Each year the General Assembly elects five new members from different geographical groups for two-year terms on the Security Council. Africa currently has three seats rotated among states.



&#8220;The problem is, these non-permanent seats don&#8217;t enable African countries to deliver the full benefit of their knowledge and voices to the work of the council &#8230; to consistently lead on the challenges that affect all of us &#8211; and disproportionately affect Africans,&#8221; Thomas-Greenfield will say.



She will also say that small island developing states deserve a rotating elected seat because they offer &#8220;critical insights on a range of international peace and security issues: including, notably, the impact of climate change.&#8221;



(Reporting by Michelle Nichols; Editing by Don Durfee and Tom Hogue)

FILE PHOTO: UN Security Council meeting in New York

US supports two permanent UN Security Council seats for Africa

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-529012" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA.jpg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-300x205.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-132x90.jpg 132w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-768x525.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Sept 10 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;OPEC on Tuesday cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 reflecting data received so far this year and also trimmed its expectation for next year, marking the producer group&#8217;s second consecutive downward revision.



The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in a monthly report said world oil demand will rise by 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from growth of 2.11 million bpd it expected last month.



There is a wider than usual split between forecasters on the strength of oil demand growth in 2024, partly due to differences over China and more broadly over the pace of the world&#8217;s transition to cleaner fuels. The reduction still leaves OPEC at the top end of industry estimates.



&#8220;Looking ahead, China&#8217;s economic growth is expected to remain well supported,&#8221; OPEC said in the report.



&#8220;However, headwinds in the real estate sector and the increasing penetration of LNG trucks and electric vehicles are likely to weigh on diesel and gasoline demand going forward.&#8221;



OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.74 million bpd from 1.78 million bpd.



(Reporting by Alex Lawler; editing by Jason Neely)

FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, Russia

OPEC again lowers 2024, 2025 global oil demand growth view

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108024800-1724414538815-gettyimages-2164056363-5ah02161-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-528645" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108024800-1724414538815-gettyimages-2164056363-5ah02161-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108024800-1724414538815-gettyimages-2164056363-5ah02161-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108024800-1724414538815-gettyimages-2164056363-5ah02161-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108024800-1724414538815-gettyimages-2164056363-5ah02161-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108024800-1724414538815-gettyimages-2164056363-5ah02161-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108024800-1724414538815-gettyimages-2164056363-5ah02161.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Andrew Harnik | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



The U.S. Federal Reserve can afford to make a jumbo 50 basis points rate cut next week without spooking markets, an analyst has suggested, as opinion on the central bank’s forthcoming meeting remains hotly divided.



Michael Yoshikami, CEO of Destination Wealth Management, said Monday that a deeper cut would demonstrate that the central bank is ready to act without signalling deeper concerns of a broader downturn.



“I would not be surprised if they jumped all the way to 50 basis points,” Yoshikami told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”



“That would be considered, on one hand, a very positive sign the Fed is doing what is needed to support jobs growth,” he continued. “I think the Fed at this point is ready to get out ahead of this.”



His comment follow similar remarks Friday from Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, who said the Fed should deliver a half-point interest rate cut at its next meeting, arguing that it went “too far, too fast” with its previous policy tightening.



Policymakers are widely expected to lower rates when they meet on Sept. 17-18, but the extent of the move remains unclear. A disappointing jobs print on Friday stoked fears of a slowing labor market and briefly tipped market expectations toward a larger cut, before shifting back.



Traders are now pricing in around a 75% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in September, while 25% are pricing in a 50 bps rate reduction, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.



Yoshikami acknowledged that a larger cut could reinforce fears that a “recessionary ball” is coming, but he insisted that such views were overblown, noting that both unemployment and interest rates remain low by historic levels and company earnings have been strong.



He said the recent market sell-off, which saw the S&amp;P 500 notch its worst week since March 2023, was based on “massive profits” accrued last month. August saw all the major indices post gains despite a volatile start to the month, while September is traditionally a weaker trading period.



Thanos Papasavvas, founder and chief investment officer of ABP Invest, also acknowledged a “rise in concern” around a potential economic downturn.



The research firm recently adjusted its probability of a U.S. recession to a “relatively contained” 30% from a “mild” 25% in June. However, Papasavvas said that the underlying components of the economy — manufacturing and unemployment rates — were “still resilient.”



“We’re not particularly concerned that we’re heading into a U.S. recession,” Papasavvas told CNBC Monday.



The perspectives stand in stark contrast to other market watchers, such as economist George Lagarias, who told CNBC last week that a bumper rate cut could be “very dangerous.”



“I don’t see the urgency for the 50 [basis point] cut,” Forvis Mazars’ chief economist told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”



“The 50 [basis point] cut might send a wrong message to markets and the economy. It might send a message of urgency and, you know, that could be a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Lagarias added.

108024800-1724414538815-gettyimages-2164056363-5ah02161

Jumbo 50 basis points Fed rate cut should not raise alarm, analyst says

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030594-1725652477107-gettyimages-2170574271-bb2_4502_cdgy76wl-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-528528" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030594-1725652477107-gettyimages-2170574271-bb2_4502_cdgy76wl-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030594-1725652477107-gettyimages-2170574271-bb2_4502_cdgy76wl-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030594-1725652477107-gettyimages-2170574271-bb2_4502_cdgy76wl-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030594-1725652477107-gettyimages-2170574271-bb2_4502_cdgy76wl-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030594-1725652477107-gettyimages-2170574271-bb2_4502_cdgy76wl-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030594-1725652477107-gettyimages-2170574271-bb2_4502_cdgy76wl.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen speaks listens to a presentation during a tour at the IRS Processing Facility on September 06, 2024 in Austin, Texas.  Brandon Bell | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Treasury Secretary&nbsp;Janet Yellen&nbsp;sought to reassure the public on Saturday that the U.S. economy remains strong, despite a string of weak job reports that have rattled investors and weighed on the stock market. “We’re seeing less frenzy in terms of hiring and job openings, but we’re not seeing meaningful layoffs,” Yellen said at the&nbsp;Texas Tribune Festival&nbsp;in Austin. “I’m attentive to downside risk now on the employment side, but what I think we’re seeing, and hope we will continue to see, is a good, solid economy.”



Yellen said job growth has slowed compared to the “hiring frenzy” when the U.S. reopened after the Covid-19 pandemic, but the economy is “deep into a recovery” and “basically operating at full employment.”



The treasury secretary’s comments come a day after the&nbsp;Bureau of Labor Statistics&nbsp;reported another month of cooler-than-expected jobs data.



Nonfarm payrolls, a measure of U.S. job creation, increased by 142,000 in August, lower than the Dow Jones forecast of 161,000. The miss renewed worries about a slowing labor market, with the S&amp;P 500 falling Friday to finish out the&nbsp;worst week since March 2023.



The unemployment rate, however, edged lower to 4.2% and job growth in August was higher than July. The stock market&nbsp;sold off steeply early last month, after the weak July report touched off renewed fears of a recession in the U.S.



Yellen on Saturday tried to calm jitters about the state of the economy: “I don’t see red lights flashing.”



The jobs data has raised worries about whether the Federal Reserve can clinch a so-called “soft landing,” raising interest rates to bring inflation under control and then executing cuts before the economy enters a recession. The Fed is widely expected to lower interest rates this month.



Yellen said the U.S. is on that path: “It really has been amazing to be able to get inflation down as meaningfully as we have. This is what most people would call the soft landing,” she said.

108030594-1725652477107-gettyimages-2170574271-bb2_4502_cdgy76wl

Yellen says U.S. economy remains solid, on path to ‘soft landing’ with no meaningful layoffs

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030350-1725631014939-Untitled-1-820x462.webp" alt="" class="wp-image-527832" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030350-1725631014939-Untitled-1-820x462.webp 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030350-1725631014939-Untitled-1-300x169.webp 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030350-1725631014939-Untitled-1-160x90.webp 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030350-1725631014939-Untitled-1-768x432.webp 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030350-1725631014939-Untitled-1.webp 1480w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Combination showing Elon Musk (L), Gautam Adani (C), and Jensen Huang (R) | Reuters
</figcaption></figure>



A version of this article first appeared in CNBC’s Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank, a weekly guide to the high-net-worth investor and consumer.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/inside-wealth-newsletter/">Sign up</a>&nbsp;to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.



On Sept. 29, 1916, newspapers across the country announced a wealth milestone once thought to be unreachable: the world’s first billionaire.



“Standard (Oil) at $2,014 makes its head a billionaire,” blared The New York Times headline, adding that Standard Oil’s soaring share price “makes John D. Rockefeller, founder and largest shareholder, almost certainly a billionaire.”



More than a century after the first U.S. billionaire (in measurable dollar terms), the question of who will be first to reach the trillionaire mark continues to fascinate. At least a half-dozen companies have done it, most recently&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BRK.B/">Berkshire Hathaway</a>, which&nbsp;<a href="https://link.cnbc.com/click/36628680.16541/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuY25iYy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8yOC9idWZmZXR0cy1iZXJrc2hpcmUtaGF0aGF3YXktaGl0cy0xLXRyaWxsaW9uLW1hcmtldC12YWx1ZS1maXJzdC11cy1jb21wYW55LW91dHNpZGUtb2YtdGVjaC10by1kby1zby5odG1sP19fc291cmNlPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXIlN0NpbnNpZGV3ZWFsdGglN0MyMDI0MDkwNQ/5b69019824c17c709e62ad3cBf363f153" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">topped $1 trillion</a>&nbsp;just before&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/warren-buffett/">Warren Buffett</a>’s&nbsp;<a href="https://link.cnbc.com/click/36628680.16541/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuY25iYy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8zMC93YXJyZW4tYnVmZmV0dC1sZWFkcy1iZXJrc2hpcmUtaGF0aGF3YXktdG8tbmV3LWhlaWdodHMtYXQtYWdlLTk0Lmh0bWw_X19zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciU3Q2luc2lkZXdlYWx0aCU3QzIwMjQwOTA1/5b69019824c17c709e62ad3cB7aa032b6" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">94th birthday</a>.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/NVDA/">Nvidia</a>&nbsp;is now at $2.6 trillion, having hit the 13-figure club last year.



And what about individuals? According to a new report from&nbsp;<a href="https://informaconnect.com/academy/companies-entering-trillion-dollar-club-in-2024/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Informa Connect Academy</a>, which predicts trillionaire status based on average annual growth rate in wealth,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/TSLA/">Tesla</a>&nbsp;CEO&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/elon-musk/">Elon Musk</a>&nbsp;will likely be the first trillionaire.



Musk is currently the world’s richest person, with $251 billion, according to the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Bloomberg Billionaires Index</a>. Connect Academy forecasts Musk will become a trillionaire sometime in 2027, assuming that his wealth continues to grow at an annual average rate of 110%.



The second to reach trillionaire status, according to the report, will be India’s Gautam Adani, founder of the Adani Group conglomerate. If Adani maintains his recent annual growth rate of 123%, the report says he will be a trillionaire in 2028.



Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, who has seen his&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/24/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huangs-net-worth-swells-by-87-billion-in-5-years.html">wealth skyrocket</a>&nbsp;from $3 billion to more than $90 billion in five years, would become a trillionaire by 2028, according to the report. His wealth would have to continue growing at an average annual rate of 112%. Nvidia’s stock is already up about 115% this year, after more than tripling last year.



Fourth on the list is Indonesia’s Prajogo Pangestu, founder of the Indonesian energy and mining conglomerate Barito Pacific. The report predicts Pangestu could reach trillionaire status by 2028.



Rounding out the top five would be&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/MC-FR/">LVMH</a>&nbsp;CEO Bernard Arnault, who is currently the world’s third-richest person, with just under $200 billion. The report has the luxury king becoming a trillionaire sometime in 2030, along with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/META/">Meta</a>&nbsp;CEO&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/mark-zuckerberg/">Mark Zuckerberg</a>.



Some top billionaires who seem like strong candidates to quickly reach the four-comma club don’t make the top 10. Jeff Bezos, currently the world’s second-richest person, with $200 billion, according to Bloomberg, is listed at No. 12, and wouldn’t become a trillionaire until 2036. Larry Page and Sergey Brin, the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/GOOG/">Google</a>&nbsp;founders, are also slated to wait 12 years to become trillionaires — although artificial intelligence may accelerate their rise.



Granted, wealth-watchers have been predicting the first trillionaire for years. And the stocks of Tesla, Nvidia and LVMH may not go up as fast in the next five years as they did in the past five.



Yet more than 100 years after the first billionaire, the first trillionaire could well be crowned in the next decade.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="687" height="497" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/image.png" alt="" class="wp-image-527834" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/image.png 687w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/image-300x217.png 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/image-124x90.png 124w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 687px) 100vw, 687px" /></figure>



<iframe title="Top 10 people most likely to become trillionaires" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-t9WKd" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/t9WKd/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0px; border: none; min-width: 100% !important; height: 452px;" height="475" data-external="1"></iframe>

Combination showing Elon Musk (L), Gautam Adani (C), and Jensen Huang (R)

Top 10 people most likely to reach trillionaire status

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108029570-1725536037667-gettyimages-122313864-66061432-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-527510" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108029570-1725536037667-gettyimages-122313864-66061432-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108029570-1725536037667-gettyimages-122313864-66061432-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108029570-1725536037667-gettyimages-122313864-66061432-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108029570-1725536037667-gettyimages-122313864-66061432-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108029570-1725536037667-gettyimages-122313864-66061432-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108029570-1725536037667-gettyimages-122313864-66061432.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Lion King directors Roger Allers (L) and Rob Minkoff. Kevin Winter | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Artificial intelligence is a “Wild West” with “very few rules” — but it has the potential to democratize the film industry in the long term, according to the director of “The Lion King.”



Rob Minkoff, who co-directed the classic 1994 animated Disney film with Roger Allers, told CNBC in an interview that AI has the potential to “democratize” filmmaking in such a way that it’ll become less costly to produce and direct motion pictures by slashing the amount of expensive equipment involved. 



“I think what AI will do is potentially democratize the process of making content, because if literally anyone is given these incredibly powerful tools, then what we should see is truly an explosion of content, an explosion of new voices,” Minkoff, 62, told CNBC.&nbsp;



Minkoff was speaking with CNBC ahead of the Reply AI Film Festival. The event, held by Italian tech firm Reply during the Venice International Film Festival, is a competition that awards filmmakers using AI to develop short films. Minkoff is a judge on the panel that decides the winners.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-hyperbole-versus-legitimate-concerns"><a></a>‘Hyperbole’ versus ‘legitimate concerns’</h2>



The arrival of new technology has for decades been a fear among people working in the film industry, Minkoff noted. For example, when computer animation arrived in the 1990s, there were similar fears about the impact it would have on jobs.



“When computer animation came along, there were a lot of people that were very afraid about it — what it would mean, how it would impact people’s jobs,” Minkoff, who also directed 1999′s “Stuart Little” and 2003′s “The Haunted Mansion,” told CNBC.&nbsp;



“What became very apparent early on was that, if people wanted to maintain their own personal relevancy in the industry, it became very important for them to really learn and adapt to changes in technology,” he added. “We’re experiencing something quite similar now with AI.”&nbsp;



Minkoff recalls the use of computers to create the famous stampede scene in “The Lion King.” In the scene, dozens of wildebeests are seen rushing after Simba, the movie’s protagonist.&nbsp;



In that scene, Minkoff recalls, “we could have 1000s of wildebeests rendered, but the technique that we used made it look very seamless with the rest of the drawn animation.”&nbsp;



“People are naturally and understandably worried when they look at what AI can do,” Minkoff said. However, he added, he doesn’t think the technology can replace all filmmakers, and that there’s a lot of “hyperbole” at the moment surrounding AI’s capabilities.



Still, Minkoff said, there are concerns about the application of AI in film that are warranted, such as those relating to copyright and the use of intellectual property in entertainment for training AI models.



“I hope that technology ultimately&nbsp;will save us, in some regards, or make life better, easier or more more prosperous,” Minkoff told CNBC. “But it’s the Wild West, where it seems like anything is possible and anything can be done.”&nbsp;



&nbsp;Minkoff added that there are “legitimate concerns” with AI when it comes to issues like the protection of media IP and tackling copyright theft. “I understand why people might want to slow it down or put guardrails on it to be careful, to be safe,” he said.&nbsp;



But ultimately, he doesn’t think the AI positive momentum will slow. “My impression is that it probably&nbsp;won’t be slowed down, because these decisions are left to judges and courtrooms to decide what’s right and wrong,” Minkoff said.



On the copyright question, he suggested the creation of a dedicated body designed to protect filmmakers’ intellectual property and remunerate them, like what the American Society for Composers, Authors and Publishers and Broadcast Music, Inc. do for the music industry.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>‘Always the human behind the technology’</h2>



The Reply AI Film Festival, which awarded three winners this week, started out as an internal competition among employees, with staff using AI tools to produce movie-quality videos, Filippo Rizzante, chief technology officer of Reply, told CNBC.



“There has been a lot of progress with technology for producing creative work,” Rizzante said in an interview last week. “This is impacting a lot the quantity and quality of what we are producing as humanity.”&nbsp;



Rizzante pushed back on fears that AI will displace people working in entertainment. The technology, he said, “will completely change how the industry is delivering content today, but not necessarily change the number of people employed in the movie industry.”&nbsp;



In this year’s edition of the festival, one of the runners-up, “Gia Pham,” depicts a woman looking at a takeout menu before being transported to a colorful picturesque 2D world. The narrator of the video, who begins by speaking in English, starts talking in Japanese after the shift from 3D to 2D.&nbsp;



Alexander de Lukowicz, co-director of “Gia Pham,” told CNBC that humans are essential to how he and his team work to generate short films. AI tools such as DALL-E and Midjourney, he said, helped the directors of his short film “enhance worlds we weren’t able to generate before.”&nbsp;



“It’s always the human behind the technology that has to guide the technology to gain the proper result out of it. We wanted to produce something like a film to really check the boundaries of what’s possible,” de Lukowicz told CNBC.&nbsp;

108029570-1725536037667-gettyimages-122313864-66061432

Director of Disney’s Lion King says AI is a ‘West West,’ echoes how animation changed film

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030079-1725572625010-gettyimages-2165961347-US_JOBS-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-527463" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030079-1725572625010-gettyimages-2165961347-US_JOBS-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030079-1725572625010-gettyimages-2165961347-US_JOBS-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030079-1725572625010-gettyimages-2165961347-US_JOBS-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030079-1725572625010-gettyimages-2165961347-US_JOBS-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030079-1725572625010-gettyimages-2165961347-US_JOBS-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108030079-1725572625010-gettyimages-2165961347-US_JOBS.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



Wall Street is gearing up for one of the most important economic releases of the year Friday, when the Labor Department puts out a jobs report expected to go a long way in determining the future of Federal Reserve policy.



The Wall Street consensus is for nonfarm payrolls growth of 161,000 for August and a slight decline in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, according to Dow Jones.



However, recent data, including a massive downward revision to previous counts, has pointed to a sharp slowdown in hiring and has put some downside risk to that forecast.



In turn, markets are certain the Fed will start lowering interest rates in a couple weeks, with the possibility of a jumbo cut depending on what Friday’s report shows.



“The labor market has cooled faster than we originally had been told, so that’s what’s calling [Friday’s report] into question,” said Giacomo Santangelo, economist at job search site Monster. “What the Fed is going to do in response, how are they going to adjust rates, that’s why we are having this conversation.”



While job growth has been tailing off through much of 2024, the deceleration hit home for the market with a July report that showed payroll growth of just 114,000. That wasn’t even the lowest number of the year, but it followed a Fed meeting that stirred up sentiment the central bank was being too complacent about a weakening economy and might hold interest rates high for too long.



What has followed has been a series of reports indicating that while the economy is still on its feet, hiring is decelerating, the manufacturing sector is fading further into contraction, and it’s time for the Fed to start cutting before it risks overdoing its inflation fight and dragging the economy into recession.



The latest bad news came Thursday when payrolls processing firm ADP put August private job growth at just 99,000, the smallest gain since January 2021.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-contemplating-the-fed-s-next-move"><a></a>Contemplating the Fed’s next move</h2>



“If they’re too aggressive for too long a period of time, without easing on monetary policy, this could lead to the giant ‘R’ and we don’t even want to say the word,” Santangelo said, referring to “recession.” “If God forbid this does lead to an economic downturn, all fingers are going to point toward the Fed.”



Markets consequently are expecting the Fed to lower benchmark rates by at least a quarter percentage point when its next meeting concludes Sept. 18, with the possibility rising of a half-point reduction. The Fed hasn’t reduced its benchmark rate by half a point since the emergency cuts during the early Covid days.



Traders are pricing in a succession of cuts that would shave about 2.25 percentage points off the fed funds rate through 2025, futures contracts show. The benchmark overnight borrowing rate is currently targeted in a range between 5.25%-5.5%.



Such an aggressive easing posture would indicate not merely an effort to normalize rates from their 23-year high but also reflect a deeper economic pullback. In the more immediate term, though, the move lower would be targeted more at a labor market still feeling aftershocks from the Covid pandemic.



Monster job search data is still heavily tilted toward health care-related positions, which have flourished in the current era, while the most common search terms are “work from home,” “part time” and “remote,” reflecting the move to a hybrid environment.



Santangelo said there also is still a substantial skills gap in the labor market, despite a sharp narrowing in the gulf between open jobs and available workers, which has contracted to about 1.1 to 1 from 2 to 1 a couple years ago.



“The jobs that are being created are not necessarily suited for the people who are getting laid off. We still have a huge skills gap. The easiest place to see that is health care,” he said. “The No.1 thing that job seekers are looking for is more flexibility. There’s that kind of gap between employers and job seekers also.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Worries from job seekers</h2>



Workers in turn are getting more pessimistic about the state of play in the labor market.



The Zeta Economic Index, which uses artificial intelligence to track various economic metrics, is showing that concerns about jobs are accelerating — even though the broader economy is still performing well.



A measure of job market sentiment fell 1% in August and is down 4.6% from a year ago, Zeta figures show. The gauge’s “new mover index” dropped 9.9% on the month, reflecting worries over job stability.



“Despite a resilient economy &#8230; job market concerns persist. The job sentiment dip, paired with the mixed bag of consumer behavior, signals an ongoing caution in the workforce,” said David Steinberg, co-founder and chairman of Zeta Global, which compiles the index. “As the economy shows signs of a ‘soft landing,’ the persistent caution regarding job stability continues to temper broader economic optimism.”



The Zeta data mirrors a recent Conference Board survey, which reflected a sharp narrowing of the gap between respondents saying jobs were easy to find as opposed to hard to get.



Markets also will be watching the wage component of Friday’s report, though that has become less of an issue lately as inflation has moderated.



The consensus is for average hourly earnings to post a 0.3% increase on the month and a 3.7% year-over-year move, both 0.1 percentage point higher than July.

108030079-1725572625010-gettyimages-2165961347-US_JOBS

Friday’s jobs report for August is going to be huge. Here’s what to expect

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2048" height="1381" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/H6GPW5QTMZLRVLBJ6PZD2Y4Y2M-scaled.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-526710" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/H6GPW5QTMZLRVLBJ6PZD2Y4Y2M-scaled.jpg 2048w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/H6GPW5QTMZLRVLBJ6PZD2Y4Y2M-300x202.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/H6GPW5QTMZLRVLBJ6PZD2Y4Y2M-820x553.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/H6GPW5QTMZLRVLBJ6PZD2Y4Y2M-133x90.jpg 133w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/H6GPW5QTMZLRVLBJ6PZD2Y4Y2M-768x518.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/H6GPW5QTMZLRVLBJ6PZD2Y4Y2M-1536x1036.jpg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: China&#8217;s President Xi Jinping attends Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan July 4, 2024. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING, Sept 4 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;China, Tanzania and Zambia signed an initial agreement to rehabilitate a decades-old railway aimed at improving the rail-sea transportation in resource-rich East Africa, Chinese state media said on Wednesday.



President Xi Jinping witnessed the signing of the memorandum of understanding on refurbishing the 1,860 kms (1,156 mile) Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority (TAZARA) railway with the Tanzanian and Zambian presidents, who were in Beijing attending the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, according to&nbsp;the state-run Xinhua news agency.



The single-track TAZARA railway was built between 1970 and 1975 through an interest-free loan from China, offering a cargo transport route from Zambia&#8217;s copper and cobalt mines to the sea on Tanzania&#8217;s coast that bypasses South Africa and the former state of Rhodesia.



Commercial operations of the line, derided by some Western governments at the time as the &#8220;bamboo railway&#8221;, began in 1976. The multi-year project had involved the construction of two dozen tunnels and hundreds of bridges by tens of thousands of Chinese and African workers.



&#8220;China is willing to take this summit as an opportunity to make new progress in the revitalisation of the Tanzania-Zambia railway, cooperate to improve the rail-sea intermodal transport network in East Africa, and build Tanzania into a demonstration zone for deepening high-quality China-Africa Belt and Road cooperation,&#8221; said Xi, according to state media.



Earlier this year, the World Bank approved $270 million in financing to help improve connectivity between neighbours Tanzania and Zambia and boost regional trade.



In February, China proposed to spend $1 billion to rehabilitate the rail line through a public-private partnership model.



(Reporting by Bernard Orr and Ryan Woo; Editing by Kim Coghill and Michael Perry)

Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit held in Kazakh capital Astana

China to ‘revitalise’ ageing railway linking Zambia, Tanzania

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1858" height="1045" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108026428-1724843418953-gettyimages-2167225730-NYSE_POWELL.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-526016" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108026428-1724843418953-gettyimages-2167225730-NYSE_POWELL.jpeg 1858w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108026428-1724843418953-gettyimages-2167225730-NYSE_POWELL-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108026428-1724843418953-gettyimages-2167225730-NYSE_POWELL-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108026428-1724843418953-gettyimages-2167225730-NYSE_POWELL-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108026428-1724843418953-gettyimages-2167225730-NYSE_POWELL-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/108026428-1724843418953-gettyimages-2167225730-NYSE_POWELL-1536x864.jpeg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1858px) 100vw, 1858px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Aug. 23, 2024. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Central banks around the world are set to kick off or continue interest rate cuts this fall, bringing an end to an era of historically high borrowing costs.



In September, the U.S. Federal Reserve is all but guaranteed to join the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the People’s Bank of China, the Swiss National Bank, Sweden’s Riksbank, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Mexico and others in cutting key rates, which have been held at levels not seen since before the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008.



Money markets had already fully priced in a rate cut from the Fed, but last week investors gained even more confidence in the path of easing ahead.



At the annual Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell not only said the “time has come for policy to adjust,” but that the central bank could now equally focus on doing “everything” it can to keep the labor market strong and continue progress on inflation.



Current pricing suggests high expectations for three 25 basis point cuts by the Fed before the end of the year, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. That will keep the Fed roughly in-line with its peers, despite it moving later.



The European Central Bank is seen cutting rates by 25 basis points at least three times in total this year; and the Bank of England by the same increment a total of three times, according to LSEG data. All three central banks are seen further continuing monetary easing at least in early 2025, even as stickiness in services inflation continues to trouble policymakers.



For the global economy, that means a broadly lower-rate environment next year, along with significantly reduced pressures from inflation. In the U.S., a recent spike in recession fear has largely abated, and despite where there is weakness in big manufacturing-oriented economies such as Germany, the likes of the more services-focused U.K. are recording solid growth.



What all that means for markets is less clear. European stocks, as measured on the regional Stoxx 600 index, rebounded in 2023 from a downturn in 2022 and gained nearly 10% in the year-to-date to reach an intraday record high on Friday. On Wall Street, the S&amp;P 500 index is 17% higher so far in 2024.



The VIX volatility index — which spiked amid the global equities downturn at the start of August — is back below average, Beat Wittmann, chairman and partner at Porta Advisors, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.



“The market, in terms of price momentum, in terms of valuations, of sentiment, has pretty much recovered, and we are going into the seasonally weak September, October period here. So I would expect choppy markets driven by various factors, geopolitics, corporate earnings, bellwethers like from the AI sector,” Wittmann said.



Choppiness will also be due to an “overdue consolidation correction” and some sector rotation occuring; but “the asset class of choice here very clearly for the rest of this year, and then especially for ’25 and beyond, is equities,” Wittmann added.



Even if recent Fed commentary appears supportive for stocks, data from the U.S. jobs market — with the next key report due Sept. 6 — remains important to watch, Manpreet Gill, chief investment officer for Africa, Middle East and Europe at Standard Chartered, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Monday.



“Our baseline is still very much that a [U.S.] soft landing is achievable&#8230; It almost becomes a little bit more binary, because as long as we avoid that downside risk, equity earnings growth is still very supportive, and we’ve had sort of the positioning clean out in the recent pullback,” Gill said.



“And I think rate cuts, or at least expectation of those, really was the last piece markets were looking for. So on balance, we think it’s a positive outcome,” Gill said, referring to the risk of U.S. economic data causing volatility in the coming months.



Arnaud Girod, head of economics and cross asset strategy at Kepler Cheuvreux, told CNBC Tuesday that bonds have had a strong summer and equities have recovered; but that investors must now take a “leap of faith” on where the U.S. economy is heading and the pace of rate cuts.



“I truly think that the more rate cuts you get, the likelihood that [these cuts are] coming with negative data and hence weakening earnings momentum is very high. So it’s difficult, I think, to be too optimistic,” he said.



The stock market has meanwhile shown that there is an element to which it “couldn’t care less about interest rates,” Girod added, since Big Tech has rallied across the peak rate months — which conventional wisdom states should harm growth and technology stocks. That will keep events such as Nvidia earnings as the key ones to watch, according to Girod.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-fx-focus-on-rates"><a></a>FX focus on rates</h2>



In currency markets, attention will remain on the interplay between inflation, rate expectations and economic growth, Jane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy at Rabobank, told CNBC by email.



If the euro rises significantly against the dollar, “the disinflationary implication may have some impact on market expectations regarding the timing of the ECB rate cuts,” she said.



Stateside, Foley continued, “the result of the U.S. election will have implications for the Fed. If Trump wins, he could use an executive order to increase tariffs fairly quickly which would spur inflation risk and could cut the Fed’s easing cycle short.”



Rabobank currently sees four Fed rate cuts between September and January and then a hold for the rest of 2025, providing the U.S. dollar with the potential to strengthen into the spring.



&nbsp;“The BOE’s hand will likely remain constrained by services sector inflation, which is a function of wage inflation.&nbsp;This could limit the pace of BOE rate cuts to once a quarter,” Foley added.

108026428-1724843418953-gettyimages-2167225730-NYSE_POWELL

The peak interest rate era is over. Here’s what investors are watching

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="740" height="416" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Workers-inspect-the-Repository-in-ONKALO-a-deep-geological-disposal-underground-facility-designed-to-safely-store-nuclear-waste-on-May-2-2023-on-the-island-of-Eurajoki-western-Finland.webp" alt="Workers inspect the Repository in ONKALO, a deep geological disposal underground facility, designed to safely store nuclear waste, on May 2, 2023, on the island of Eurajoki, western Finland." class="wp-image-524629" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Workers-inspect-the-Repository-in-ONKALO-a-deep-geological-disposal-underground-facility-designed-to-safely-store-nuclear-waste-on-May-2-2023-on-the-island-of-Eurajoki-western-Finland.webp 740w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Workers-inspect-the-Repository-in-ONKALO-a-deep-geological-disposal-underground-facility-designed-to-safely-store-nuclear-waste-on-May-2-2023-on-the-island-of-Eurajoki-western-Finland-300x169.webp 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Workers-inspect-the-Repository-in-ONKALO-a-deep-geological-disposal-underground-facility-designed-to-safely-store-nuclear-waste-on-May-2-2023-on-the-island-of-Eurajoki-western-Finland-160x90.webp 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A worker walks at the turbine room linked to the OL3, the latest among three reactors at the nuclear power plant Olkiluoto on May 2, 2023, on the island of Eurajoki, western Finland. Jonathan Nackstrand | Afp | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Finland is on the cusp of burying spent nuclear fuel in the world’s first geological tomb, where it will be stored for 100,000 years.



The pioneering project has been&nbsp;<a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/finlands-spent-fuel-repository-a-game-changer-for-the-nuclear-industry-director-general-grossi-says" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">hailed</a>&nbsp;as both a watershed moment for the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy and “a model for the entire world.”



At some point either next year or in early 2026, highly radioactive spent nuclear fuel will be packed in watertight canisters and deposited into bedrock more than 400 meters below the forests of southwest Finland.



The durable copper canisters will be isolated, separated from humans and kept underground for thousands of years.



“Onkalo,” which is the trademark name of the long-term disposal facility, is the Finnish word for a small cave or pit. It is an apt name for the repository, which sits atop a warren of tunnels and is situated next to three nuclear reactors on the island of Olkiluoto, approximately 240 kilometers from the capital of Helsinki.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="929" height="523" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-3.jpeg" alt="A worker walks at the turbine room linked to the OL3, the latest among three reactors at the nuclear power plant Olkiluoto on May 2, 2023, on the island of Eurajoki, western Finland. - Finland's next-generation Olkiluoto 3 nuclear reactor, the largest in Europe, has gone into regular production on April 16, 2023 after months of delays, hours after Germany ended its nuclear era. (Photo by Jonathan NACKSTRAND / AFP) (Photo by JONATHAN NACKSTRAND/AFP via Getty Images)" class="wp-image-524636" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-3.jpeg 929w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-3-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-3-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-3-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-3-768x432.jpeg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 929px) 100vw, 929px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A worker walks at the turbine room linked to the OL3, the latest among three reactors at the nuclear power plant Olkiluoto on May 2, 2023, on the island of Eurajoki, western Finland. Jonathan Nackstrand | Afp | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Established in 1995, Posiva is tasked with the responsibility of handling the final disposal of spent nuclear fuel rods at Onkalo. The Finnish company is jointly owned by nuclear power company TVO and utility Fortum.



“Basically, the Onkalo project is that we are building an encapsulation plant and disposal facility for spent fuel. And it’s not temporary, it’s for good,” Pasi Tuohimaa, head of communications for Posiva, told CNBC via videoconference.



Tuohimaa said the first-of-its-kind geological disposal facility had received a lot of interest from industry players, citing what he described as a nuclear “<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/26/morgan-stanley-on-how-to-play-the-global-nuclear-power-renaissance.html">renaissance</a>” in recent years and an&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/16/europes-energy-crisis-is-making-the-market-nervous-ahead-of-winter.html">energy crisis</a>&nbsp;that gripped Europe and parts of Asia from mid-2021 through to late 2022.



“Having a solution for the final disposal of spent fuel was like the missing part of the sustainable lifecycle for nuclear energy,” Tuohimaa said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-role-of-nuclear-power"><a></a>The role of nuclear power</h2>



The Onkalo project has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/22/nuclear-energy-the-answer-to-a-sustainable-future-experts-are-divided.html">stoked debate</a>&nbsp;about whether anyone can guarantee the long-term safety of spent nuclear waste and the extent to which atomic power should be used in the fight against the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/08/climate-world-surpasses-key-warming-threshold-across-an-entire-year.html">climate crisis</a>.



Nuclear energy currently provides about 9% of the world’s electricity,&nbsp;<a href="https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/nuclear-power-in-the-world-today" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">according</a>&nbsp;to the World Nuclear Association.



As it’s low-carbon, advocates&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/14/ukraine-war-europe-is-still-quietly-importing-russian-nuclear-energy.html">argue</a>&nbsp;that nuclear energy has the potential to play a significant role in helping countries generate electricity while slashing emissions and reducing their reliance on fossil fuels.



Some environmental groups, however,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.greenpeace.org.uk/challenges/nuclear-power/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">say</a>&nbsp;the nuclear industry is an expensive and harmful distraction to cheaper and cleaner alternatives.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="929" height="523" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-2.jpeg" alt="Finland is poised to bury spent nuclear fuel in the world's first geological tomb. The Onkalo site is situated next to three nuclear reactors on the island of Olkiluoto in southwest Finland." class="wp-image-524635" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-2.jpeg 929w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-2-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-2-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-2-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-2-768x432.jpeg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 929px) 100vw, 929px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Finland is poised to bury spent nuclear fuel in the world’s first geological tomb. The Onkalo site is situated next to three nuclear reactors on the island of Olkiluoto in southwest Finland. Credit: Posiva</figcaption></figure>



“I work both in nuclear waste disposal and nuclear accidents and I have experienced the best and worst of what the nuclear industry can offer,” Gareth Law, professor of radiochemistry at the University of Helsinki, told CNBC via videoconference.



“Clean energy, cheap energy, good baseload but then I have seen the bad side too, accidents, waste creation and the problems that we have there,” he continued.



“To have a country now that’s demonstrating that you can actually take this very dangerous waste that’s going to be here for 100,000-odd years into the future, and we actually have a disposal solution for it, I think that shows it can be done.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-finland-at-least-a-decade-ahead"><a></a>Finland ‘at least a decade ahead’</h2>



Law described the Onkalo project as a “big milestone” for both Finland and the international nuclear power industry.



“Posiva are very correct in selling this as a world first. It is going to be the first repository to take spent nuclear fuel and dispose of it in what I think is going to be a very safe and robust manner into the future.”



Law said that while many countries will want to follow in Finland’s footsteps when it comes to the geological disposal of spent nuclear fuel, the Nordic country is “at least a decade” ahead of neighboring Sweden, the next country that’s likely to achieve such a feat.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="929" height="523" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-1.jpeg" alt="Visitors are shown the Repository in ONKALO, a deep geological disposal underground facility, designed to safely store nuclear waste, on May 2, 2023, on the island of Eurajoki, western Finland. - Finland's next-generation Olkiluoto 3 nuclear reactor, the largest in Europe, has gone into regular production on April 16, 2023 after months of delays, hours after Germany ended its nuclear era. (Photo by Jonathan NACKSTRAND / AFP) (Photo by JONATHAN NACKSTRAND/AFP via Getty Images)" class="wp-image-524634" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-1.jpeg 929w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-1-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-1-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-1-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-1-768x432.jpeg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 929px) 100vw, 929px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Visitors are shown the Repository in ONKALO, a deep geological disposal underground facility, designed to safely store nuclear waste, on May 2, 2023, on the island of Eurajoki, western Finland. Jonathan Nackstrand | Afp | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



“Scientifically and engineering-wise, it is a very difficult thing to put it into place and to enact, but also politically, it is very, very difficult to get the impetus to do this disposal scenario,” Law said.



“There are many countries in the world that are still very much in the planning stages and even just trying to find somewhere to put the waste. So, the fact that Finland [has] built a repository now and in the next year or two we’re going to be operating it and start the disposal process … I don’t want to call it a miracle, but it wouldn’t be a bad way of framing it in the global context.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-a-model-for-the-entire-world"><a></a>‘A model for the entire world’</h2>



The Onkalo project is&nbsp;<a href="https://group.vattenfall.com/press-and-media/newsroom/2023/finland-to-open-the-worlds-first-final-repository-for-spent-nuclear-fuel" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">based</a>&nbsp;on the so-called “KBS-3” method developed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company, which is working on what could be the world’s second final repository.



KBS-3 is based on a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.posiva.fi/en/index/finaldisposal/releasebarriers.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">multi-barrier principle</a>, where several engineered barriers seek to ensure the long-term safety of the spent nuclear fuel. In practice, it means that if one of the barriers were to fail, the isolation of the radioactive waste is not compromised.



“It is a way to showcase that such a small nation sometimes is able to solve one of humankind’s maybe top 20 problems or challenges,” Finnish Climate Minister Kai Mykkänen told CNBC via videoconference.



“As we have seen during the past 10 years, nuclear seems to be required in a very important way for the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/05/climate-eu-backlash-over-plans-to-label-nuclear-and-gas-as-green.html">green deal in Europe</a>&nbsp;… but especially if we want to see Asia and the U.S. get rid of fossil electricity production,” he added.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="929" height="523" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image.jpeg" alt="The Repository in ONKALO, a deep geological disposal underground facility, designed to safely store nuclear waste, is pictured on May 2, 2023, on the island of Eurajoki, western Finland. - Finland's next-generation Olkiluoto 3 nuclear reactor, the largest in Europe, has gone into regular production on April 16, 2023 after months of delays, hours after Germany ended its nuclear era. (Photo by Jonathan NACKSTRAND / AFP) (Photo by JONATHAN NACKSTRAND/AFP via Getty Images)" class="wp-image-524633" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image.jpeg 929w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-768x432.jpeg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 929px) 100vw, 929px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The Repository in ONKALO, a deep geological disposal underground facility, designed to safely store nuclear waste, is pictured on May 2, 2023, on the island of Eurajoki, western Finland. Jonathan Nackstrand | Afp | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Asked whether the Onkalo project could be seen as a solution to the sustainability of nuclear waste, Mykkänen replied: “Yes, definitely.”



He added, “I am sure that the clear majority of the Finnish population, and also an even larger population near to Onkalo, they are seeing it in a similar way. People really see it as a solution that replaces more harmful energy.”



Mykkänen said he hoped the Onkalo project would be “a model for the entire world.”

Workers inspect the Repository in ONKALO, a deep geological disposal underground facility, designed to safely store nuclear waste, on May 2, 2023, on the island of Eurajoki, western Finland.

Finland will soon bury nuclear waste in a geological tomb that’s built to last for 100,000 years

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="482" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107322262-16981550392023-10-24t134236z_46329598_rc2nu3aqwna3_rtrmadp_0_china-economy-bonds-820x482.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-462538" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107322262-16981550392023-10-24t134236z_46329598_rc2nu3aqwna3_rtrmadp_0_china-economy-bonds-820x482.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107322262-16981550392023-10-24t134236z_46329598_rc2nu3aqwna3_rtrmadp_0_china-economy-bonds-300x176.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107322262-16981550392023-10-24t134236z_46329598_rc2nu3aqwna3_rtrmadp_0_china-economy-bonds-153x90.jpeg 153w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107322262-16981550392023-10-24t134236z_46329598_rc2nu3aqwna3_rtrmadp_0_china-economy-bonds-768x452.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107322262-16981550392023-10-24t134236z_46329598_rc2nu3aqwna3_rtrmadp_0_china-economy-bonds-1536x904.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107322262-16981550392023-10-24t134236z_46329598_rc2nu3aqwna3_rtrmadp_0_china-economy-bonds.jpeg 1700w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A Chinese flag flutters on top of the Great Hall of the People ahead of the opening ceremony of the Belt and Road Forum (BRF), to mark 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative, in Beijing, China October 18, 2023.
Edgar Su | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Aug 29 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Chinese lenders approved loans worth $4.61 billion to Africa last year, marking the first annual increase since 2016, an independent study showed on Thursday.



Africa secured more than $10 billion in loans a year from China between 2012-2018, thanks to President Xi Jinping&#8217;s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), but the lending fell precipitously from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.



Last year&#8217;s figure, a more than three-fold increase from 2022, shows China is keen to curb risks associated with highly indebted economies, the study by Boston University&#8217;s Global Development Policy Centre found.



&#8220;Beijing appears to be looking for a more sustainable equilibrium level of lending and experimenting with a (new) strategy,&#8221; said the university centre, which runs the Chinese Loans to Africa Database project.



The new data comes as Beijing prepares to host African leaders next week for the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, which takes place every three years.



There were 13 loan deals last year involving eight African countries and two African multilateral lenders, the study found.



Last year&#8217;s biggest items include a nearly $1 billion loan from China Development Bank to Nigeria for the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reutersconnect.com/all?search=all%3AS8N362039&amp;linkedFromStory=true" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Kaduna-to-Kano</a>&nbsp;Railway and similar size&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reutersconnect.com/all?search=all%3AP8N3BH07A&amp;linkedFromStory=true" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">liquidity facility</a>&nbsp;by the lender to Egypt&#8217;s central bank.



China has vaulted to the top bilateral lender for many African nations like Ethiopia in recent years.



It has lent the continent a total of $182.28 billion between 2000-2023, the Boston University study found, with the bulk of the finances going to Africa&#8217;s energy, transport and ICT sectors.



Africa featured prominently in the initial years of BRI, as China sought to recreate the ancient Silk Road and extend its geopolitical and economic influence through a global infrastructure development push.



China, however, started to turn off the cash spigot in 2019, a shift that was accelerated by the pandemic, leaving a series of incomplete projects around the region, including a modern railway meant to link Kenya with its neighbours.



The reduction in loans was caused by China&#8217;s own domestic pressures and growing debt burdens among African economies. Zambia, Ghana and Ethiopia have gone into protracted debt overhauls since 2021.



More than half of the loans committed last year, or $2.59 billion, were to regional and national lenders, underscoring Beijing&#8217;s new strategy, the study by Boston University found.



&#8220;Chinese lenders&#8217; focus on African financial institutions most likely represent a risk mitigation strategy that avoids exposure to African countries&#8217; debt challenges,&#8221; it said.



Nearly a tenth of 2023 loans were for three solar and hydropower energy projects, the study found, illustrating a desire by China to move into funding renewable energy instead of coal-fired power plants.



Still, the discernible trends in last year&#8217;s figures did not offer a clear direction of China&#8217;s financial engagement with the continent, the study showed, since Chinese institutions also wrote loans to ailing economies like Nigeria and Angola.



&#8220;It remains to be seen whether China&#8217;s partnerships in Africa will retain their quality,&#8221; the Global Development Policy Centre said.



China&#8217;s loans to Africa rise in 2023&nbsp;<a href="https://reut.rs/3yZjZJH" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">https://reut.rs/3yZjZJH</a>



(Reporting by Duncan Miriri, editing by Karin Strohecker and Angus MacSwan)

107322262-16981550392023-10-24t134236z_46329598_rc2nu3aqwna3_rtrmadp_0_china-economy-bonds

China’s lending to Africa rises for first time in seven years, study shows

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108013392-1722337017522-gettyimages-2021271708-20090101240221-99-73751-1-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-523819" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108013392-1722337017522-gettyimages-2021271708-20090101240221-99-73751-1-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108013392-1722337017522-gettyimages-2021271708-20090101240221-99-73751-1-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108013392-1722337017522-gettyimages-2021271708-20090101240221-99-73751-1-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108013392-1722337017522-gettyimages-2021271708-20090101240221-99-73751-1-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108013392-1722337017522-gettyimages-2021271708-20090101240221-99-73751-1.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The lights of Frankfurt am Main’s banking skyline glow in the last light of day. Boris Roessler | Picture Alliance | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



LONDON — European markets were higher on Tuesday as investors assessed geopolitical risks and U.K. markets reopened after being closed on Monday for a national bank holiday.



The pan-European Stoxx 600 was 0.21% higher at 8:49 a.m. London time, with all major regional indexes trading in the green. Sectors were mixed, with mining stocks adding 1.08%, while retail stocks shed 0.34% and tech dipped 0.18%.



European markets had posted a mixed session on Monday.



Investors continued to weigh geopolitical risks after Israel and Hezbollah traded strikes over the weekend, raising fears about a wider conflict in the Middle East.



The uncertainty sent oil prices higher on Monday. On Tuesday prices eased slightly, with Brent crude&nbsp;futures dipping by 0.15% to $81.31 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude declining by 0.31% to $77.18 a barrel at 8:51 a.m. London time.



On the data front in Europe, Germany’s statistics office on Tuesday released a final reading of the country’s second-quarter gross domestic product, saying that it fell by 0.1% from the previous quarter. That was in line with the preliminary second-quarter GDP reading that was released in July.



Elsewhere, Hungary’s central bank is set to announce its interest rate decision.



Elsewhere, Asia-Pacific markets broadly pulled back on Tuesday as investors weighed industrial profit data out of China and widely followed key Wall Street indexes lower.



The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite had retreated on Monday in the U.S. as technology stocks slid, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a fresh record high. U.S. futures were last mixed early on Tuesday.

108013392-1722337017522-gettyimages-2021271708-20090101240221-99-73751 (1)

Europe markets rise as investors weigh economic, geopolitical outlook; UK markets reopen

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108025237-1724641337856-gettyimages-2167483575-AFP_36EN9KK-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-523407" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108025237-1724641337856-gettyimages-2167483575-AFP_36EN9KK-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108025237-1724641337856-gettyimages-2167483575-AFP_36EN9KK-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108025237-1724641337856-gettyimages-2167483575-AFP_36EN9KK-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108025237-1724641337856-gettyimages-2167483575-AFP_36EN9KK-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/108025237-1724641337856-gettyimages-2167483575-AFP_36EN9KK.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">This photo taken from a position in northern Israel shows a Hezbollah UAV intercepted by Israeli air forces over north Israel on August 25, 2024. The Israeli military announced early August 25, 2024 that it was conducting pre-emptive strikes in Lebanon after detecting preparations for “large-scale” attacks by the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. Hezbollah said it had launched more than 320 rockets at Israel overnight, targeting a string of military positions, even as Israel’s military said it was carrying out pre-emptive strikes against the group.  Jalaa Marey | Afp | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Tensions in the Middle East and the risk of a wider conflict will keep oil prices elevated, said Vivek Dhar, mining and energy commodities strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.



Oil prices rose on Monday after Israel’s Air Force struck targets in Lebanon with over 100 fighter jets before the Iran-backed group fired more than 320 rockets into Israel.



U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 0.75% at $75.39 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 0.67% to $79.55.



Iran-backed Hezbollah said the strikes were in retaliation to Israel’s killing of senior commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut last month. Israel said its pre-emptive strikes were aimed at foiling a bigger attack by the Hezbollah, Reuters reported.



“While market expectations are centered on Iran’s attack hurting Israel without triggering a wider regional conflict, Israel’s response will be equally important. And Israel’s response may include an attack on Iran’s oil supply and related infrastructure, which would put at risk 3 &#8211; 4% of global oil supply,” Dhar said.



Cedric Chehab, managing director and head of global risk at research firm BMI said the exchange of fire on Sunday does not mean that an “all-out war” is imminent.



Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia,” Chehab said that “what Hezbollah wanted to do, what Iran wanted to do, was to essentially allow for deterrence. So, [to] exercise that deterrence, and they’ve done that.”



While there is a risk that the confrontation spirals out into a wider conflict, there is still room for de-escalation, he added.



Both Israel and Iranian leaders “do not want this to get out of hand and to escalate &#8230; don’t forget, Iran has a new president who’s untested, and the idea is to apply pressure on Israel, but not necessarily engage in direct confrontation.”



While Dhar agreed with Chehab’s view that the events on Sunday are unlikely to be the catalyst for an all-out war in the region, he pointed out Iran has yet to retaliate against Israel following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political chief of Hamas, in Tehran last month.



Dhar also said the progress of Gaza truce talks will be an indicator of how Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas interpret the events over the weekend.



Early Monday, Reuters reported that there was no agreement over ceasefire in talks on Sunday regarding the Gaza conflict, with Egyptian security sources telling the agency that neither Hamas nor Israel agreed to proposals presented by mediators in Cairo.



Dhar added while the escalation hurts truce talks at face value, the fact that Israel managed to thwart Hezbollah “may force Iran and its proxies to concede that Israel is in a position of power, particularly with U.S. backing, making the truce talks more palatable.”



He also forecasts that Brent futures will trade between $75 and $85 a barrel in September, with more potential upside if hopes for a truce in Gaza diminish, and as an Iranian reprisal against Israel is still “on the cards.”



“More broadly, the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East that permanently embroils Iran is an upside risk to our outlook.”

108025237-1724641337856-gettyimages-2167483575-AFP_36EN9KK

Oil prices to remain elevated as Middle East tensions threaten a wider conflict, CBA analyst warns

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2048" height="1365" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107094949-16589488462022-07-27t185755z_1401356456_rc2ikv9v3blg_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-scaled.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-419969" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107094949-16589488462022-07-27t185755z_1401356456_rc2ikv9v3blg_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-scaled.jpeg 2048w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107094949-16589488462022-07-27t185755z_1401356456_rc2ikv9v3blg_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107094949-16589488462022-07-27t185755z_1401356456_rc2ikv9v3blg_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107094949-16589488462022-07-27t185755z_1401356456_rc2ikv9v3blg_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107094949-16589488462022-07-27t185755z_1401356456_rc2ikv9v3blg_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107094949-16589488462022-07-27t185755z_1401356456_rc2ikv9v3blg_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in Washington, July 27, 2022.
Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell laid the groundwork Friday for interest rate cuts ahead, though he declined to provide exact indications on timing or extent.



“The time has come for policy to adjust,” the central bank leader said in his much-awaited keynote address at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”



Watch live: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks from Jackson Hole conference



With markets awaiting direction on where monetary policy is headed, Powell focused as much on a look back at what caused the inflation that led to an aggressive series of 13 rate hikes from March 2022 through July 2023.



However, he did note the progress on inflation and said the Fed can now turn its focus equally to other side of its dual mandate, namely to make sure the economy stays around full employment.



“Inflation has declined significantly. The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic,” Powell said. “Supply constraints have normalized. And the balance of the risks to our two mandates has changed.”



He vowed that “we will do everything we can” to make sure the labor market says strong and progress on inflation continues.



Stocks added to gains as Powell began to speak while Treasury yields dropped sharply.



“This was a valedictory of essentially Chair Powell turning the page, saying the mission, which has been focused on inflation for the last two years, has been successful,” economist Paul McCulley, the former Pimco managing director, said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-sees-progress-towards-goals"><a></a>Sees progress towards goals</h2>



The speech comes with the inflation rate consistently drifting back to the Fed’s 2% target though still not there yet. A gauge the Fed prefers to measure inflation most recently showed the rate at 2.5%, down from 3.2% a year ago and well off its peak above 7% in June 2022.



At the same time, the unemployment rate has slowly but consistently climbed higher, most recently at 4.3% and in an area that otherwise would trigger a time-tested indicator of a recession. However, Powell attributed the rise in unemployment to more individuals entering the workforce and a slower pace of hiring, rather than a rise in layoffs or a general deterioration in the labor market.



“Our objective has been to restore price stability while maintaining a strong labor market, avoiding the sharp increases in unemployment that characterized earlier disinflationary episodes when inflation expectations were less well anchored,” he said. “While the task is not complete, we have made a good deal of progress toward that outcome.”



Markets are expecting the Fed to start cutting in September, though Powell made no mention of when he thinks policy easing will begin. Minutes from the July open market committee meeting, released Wednesday, noted that a “vast majority” of officials believe a September cut will be appropriate so long as there are no data surprises.



In addition to assessing the current state of play, Powell took considerable time in the speech to evaluate what led to the surge in inflation — hitting its highest level in more than 40 years — as well as the Fed’s policy response and why price pressures have eased without a recession.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-good-ship-transitory"><a></a>‘Good ship Transitory’</h2>



When inflation first began to rise in early 2021, he and his colleagues — as well as many Wall Street economists — dismissed it as “transitory” and caused by Covid-related factors that would abate.



“The good ship Transitory was a crowded one,” Powell quipped to laughter form attendees, “with most mainstream analysts and advanced-economy central bankers on board. I think I see some former shipmates out there today.”



When it became clear that inflation was spreading from goods to services, the Fed pivoted and began hiking, ultimately adding 5.25 percentage points to its benchmark overnight rate that had been around zero following emergency cuts in the early pandemic days.



The rise in inflation, Powell said, was “a global phenomenon,” the result of “rapid increases in the demand for goods, strained supply chains, tight labor markets, and sharp hikes in commodity prices.”



He attributed confidence in the Fed and well-anchored expectations that inflation ultimately would ease to the economy avoiding a sharp downturn during the hiking cycle.



“The FOMC did not flinch from carrying out our responsibilities, and our actions forcefully demonstrated our commitment to restoring price stability,” he said. “An important takeaway from recent experience is that anchored inflation expectations, reinforced by vigorous central bank actions, can facilitate disinflation without the need for slack.”



Powell added that there is still “much to be learned” from the experience.



“That is my assessment of events. Your mileage may differ,” he said.

107094949-16589488462022-07-27t185755z_1401356456_rc2ikv9v3blg_rtrmadp_0_usa-fed

Fed Chair Powell indicates interest rate cuts ahead: ‘The time has come for policy to adjust’

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/107284465-1691669496096-gettyimages-1603825613-dsc05537_eh8zi6qn-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-522307" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/107284465-1691669496096-gettyimages-1603825613-dsc05537_eh8zi6qn-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/107284465-1691669496096-gettyimages-1603825613-dsc05537_eh8zi6qn-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/107284465-1691669496096-gettyimages-1603825613-dsc05537_eh8zi6qn-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/107284465-1691669496096-gettyimages-1603825613-dsc05537_eh8zi6qn-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/107284465-1691669496096-gettyimages-1603825613-dsc05537_eh8zi6qn-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/107284465-1691669496096-gettyimages-1603825613-dsc05537_eh8zi6qn.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Grocery items are offered for sale at a supermarket on August 09, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois.  Scott Olson | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Contrary to what many believe, investment research firm BCA Research sees that the economy is on the cusp of a recession, and the predicted upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts will not be sufficient to steer markets out of it.



“Every single one of us now believes there’s a recession, and that’s exactly the opposite of what the market believes,” Garry Evans, BCA Research’s chief strategist of global asset allocation told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”



Evans pointed to signs of the economy slowing down, including what he called the “deteriorating” U.S. labor market. The U.S. Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate inched to 4.3% in July to its highest since October 2021, and a gauge for U.S. manufacturing activity fell to an eight-month low in the same month.



“There’s things that are breaking down quite rapidly now,” said the strategist.



The Fed funds futures market suggests that investors are expecting at least three rate cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.



But according to Evans, that will not move the needle much on his projections.



“A few rate cuts are not going to prevent a recession. Average recession is 10 months… It takes something like a year before fed cuts actually start to give a boost to the economy,” he said.



“The market believes that the fed fund rate at the end of next year will be 3%. It’s currently at 5.3%. That will not happen unless there is a recession,” he added.



A recession typically occurs when there are two consecutive quarters of decline in a country’s real GDP.



Traders are also keeping their eye on the annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole this week, which could offer greater clarity on the interest rate outlook, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to speak at the gathering on Friday.



The U.S. economy has remained robust even amid ongoing inflation and elevated interest rates.



In the last century, there have been more than a dozen recessions, some lasting as long as a year and a half.



Although the U.S. isn’t officially in a recession, a survey conducted by Affirm reveals that about 3 out of 5 Americans think it is.

107284465-1691669496096-gettyimages-1603825613-dsc05537_eh8zi6qn

A recession is coming in the U.S., and ‘a few rate cuts’ won’t prevent it, says strategist

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/106079953-1565841404120gettyimages-1161631096.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-521928" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/106079953-1565841404120gettyimages-1161631096.jpeg 1600w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/106079953-1565841404120gettyimages-1161631096-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/106079953-1565841404120gettyimages-1161631096-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/106079953-1565841404120gettyimages-1161631096-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/106079953-1565841404120gettyimages-1161631096-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/106079953-1565841404120gettyimages-1161631096-1536x864.jpeg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



The U.S. 10-year Treasury rose on Thursday as dovish minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting and a large revision lower in preliminary payrolls data bolstered expectations of an interest rate cut next month.



The yield on the 10-year Treasury was up more than 2 basis points at 3.799%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury was roughly 1 basis point higher at 3.929%.



Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%.



Market participants are firmly pricing in an interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s next meeting. Traders are currently pricing in a roughly 66% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, with just over one-third pricing in a 50-basis-point rate cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.



It comes shortly after the summary of minutes from the Fed’s July meeting said that the “vast majority” of participants “observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.”



Investors on Wednesday also reacted to a significant downward revision to U.S. hiring figures, which showed there were 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024.



Attention now turns to comments made at the annual Jackson Hole symposium that kicks off on Thursday. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday.



On the data front, the latest reading of weekly initial jobless claims will be released at around 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.



A flash reading of manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for August and services PMI for August, existing home sales data for July and the Kansas City Fed’s survey for August will all follow slightly later in the session.



— CNBC’s Alex Haring, Sophie Kiderlin &amp; Jesse Pound contributed to this report.

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