<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107356664-1704897343986-Untitled-2-820x462.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-445368" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107356664-1704897343986-Untitled-2-820x462.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107356664-1704897343986-Untitled-2-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107356664-1704897343986-Untitled-2-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107356664-1704897343986-Untitled-2-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107356664-1704897343986-Untitled-2.jpg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Combination showing Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI (L), Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission (C), and Javier Milei, President of Argentina (R). Reuters</figcaption></figure>



The global elite are pulling on their snow boots and firing up their private jets for the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.



The 2024 WEF, titled “Rebuilding Trust,” runs Jan. 14-19. Hanging over the event is the sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions and global trade concerns in the Middle East. Meanwhile, inflation and economic growth, the war in Ukraine, technological change and global fragmentation will all remain on the agenda.



Perhaps the most heavyweight political figures set to be in attendance are China’s second-in-command Li Qiang, and French President Emmanuel Macron, who will both give special addresses.



Macron is the only G7 leader heading to the Swiss mountain resort, while last year only Germany’s Olaf Scholz was there from the alliance. Some have suggested politicians are increasingly wary of attending the event amid the ongoing cost of living crisis and with issues to tackle at home.



Joe Biden has not attended since he became U.S. president; nor has the U.K.’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.



But a host of other leaders and finance ministers are set to go this year, from Spain, Belgium, Colombia, Iraq, Lebanon, Ireland, Kenya, Nigeria, Thailand, Singapore and beyond.



From the U.S., attendees include Secretary of State Antony Blinken; national security advisor Jake Sullivan; and Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry.



Sullivan is likely to attend the latest meeting of the “National Security Advisers on Ukraine,” with a press conference to be held Sunday, which will cover the 10-point peace plan drawn up by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The plan has been much-discussed by international observers but dismissed by Russian leadership.



Argentinian President Javier Milei may raise eyebrows among the establishment with his planned Wednesday address. The newly-inaugurated right-wing firebrand has already sparked protests at home against a series of shock economic policies, including a sharp currency devaluation. He has also pledged to dollarize the economy and abolish the central bank.



Among the big names from the business world, many will undoubtedly be keen to hear from Sam Altman, reinstalled CEO of ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, who is scheduled to discuss safety and trust in technology alongside panelists including U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt and Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla.



Top figures from the global economy will as usual make appearances, from International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, to World Bank President Ajay S. Banga, and World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.



Likewise, the heads from international bodies and civil society groups will be out in force, including the U.N.’s António Guterres, NATO’s Jens Stoltenberg, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus of the World Health Organization, and Tirana Hassan of Human Rights Watch.

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From Sam Altman to Emmanuel Macron: Who’s going to Davos 2024?

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355867-1704791524370-gettyimages-1777760400-aiholdingballotbox-820x462.png" alt="" class="wp-image-444980" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355867-1704791524370-gettyimages-1777760400-aiholdingballotbox-820x462.png 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355867-1704791524370-gettyimages-1777760400-aiholdingballotbox-300x169.png 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355867-1704791524370-gettyimages-1777760400-aiholdingballotbox-160x90.png 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355867-1704791524370-gettyimages-1777760400-aiholdingballotbox-768x432.png 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355867-1704791524370-gettyimages-1777760400-aiholdingballotbox.png 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Alfieri | Digitalvision Vectors | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



As around half of the world’s adult population heads to the polls in a bumper year of elections, concern over the role of artificial intelligence in disrupting outcomes has topped the list of the biggest risks for 2024, according to a new report.



The World Economic Forum’s “Global Risks Report 2024,” released Wednesday, ranked AI-derived misinformation and disinformation — and its implications for societal polarization — ahead of climate change, war and economic weakness in its top 10 risks over the next two years.



“AI can build out models for influencing large populations of voters in a way that we haven’t seen before,” Carolina Klint, chief commercial officer for Europe at consultancy Marsh McLennan, which co-produced the report, told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro.



“How that is going to play out is going to be quite important for us to watch,” she added.



Looking further ahead, the balance of risks for the next decade shifts toward extreme weather conditions and critical changes to the political world order, with two-thirds of those surveyed anticipating a new multipolar or fragmented world to take shape.



The WEF report, which was also produced in collaboration with Zurich Insurance Group, surveyed over 1,400 global risk experts, policymakers and industry leaders in September 2023 about their biggest global concerns.



The report’s authors said the combined risks are “stretching the world’s adaptative capacity to its limit,” and called on leaders to focus on global cooperation and building guardrails for the most disruptive emerging risks.



“An unstable global order characterized by polarizing narratives and insecurity, the worsening impacts of extreme weather and economic uncertainty are causing accelerating risks – including misinformation and disinformation – to propagate,” Saadia Zahidi, WEF’s managing director, said.



“World leaders must come together to address short-term crises as well as lay the groundwork for a more resilient, sustainable, inclusive future,” she added.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-top-10-global-risks"><a></a>Top 10 global risks</h2>



The most cited risks for the next two years were, in order: misinformation and disinformation, extreme weather events, societal polarization, cyber insecurity and interstate armed conflict. Also in the top 10 were lack of economic opportunity, inflation, involuntary migration, economic downturn and pollution.



Extreme weather events, critical change to earth systems, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, natural resource shortages and misinformation and disinformation were named as the most likely risks over the next 10 years. Adverse outcomes from AI technologies was also named as a longer-term concern.



“Artificial intelligence breakthroughs will radically disrupt the risk outlook for organizations with many struggling to react to threats arising from misinformation, disintermediation and strategic miscalculation, Klint said in the report.



“At the same time, companies are having to negotiate supply chains made more complex by geopolitics and climate change and cyber threats from a growing number of malicious actors. It will take a relentless focus to build resilience at organizational, country and international levels – and greater cooperation between the public and private sectors – to navigate this rapidly evolving risk landscape,” she added.



The report comes as global leaders are due to meet next week in Davos, Switzerland for WEF’s annual summit, during which they will discuss global issues including the ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, the economy and technology, under the event’s tagline “Rebuilding Trust.”



It also comes as the world embarks on a historic year of elections, with Taiwan this weekend kickstarting the elections, which are also due in the U.S., India, Russia, South Africa and Mexico.



In a separate 2024 global risks report released Monday, Eurasia Group named the upcoming U.S. election as its top risk for the year, with “ungoverned AI” also ranking among the top five.



Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, said in a press briefing that given the wider reaching ramifications of the election outcome, the consultancy had “no choice” but to rank the risk ahead of the wars between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Hamas.

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Election disruption from AI poses the biggest global risk in 2024, Davos survey warns

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107257256-1686815759701-gettyimages-1251498029-AFP_33CY93A-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-444913" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107257256-1686815759701-gettyimages-1251498029-AFP_33CY93A-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107257256-1686815759701-gettyimages-1251498029-AFP_33CY93A-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107257256-1686815759701-gettyimages-1251498029-AFP_33CY93A-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107257256-1686815759701-gettyimages-1251498029-AFP_33CY93A-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107257256-1686815759701-gettyimages-1251498029-AFP_33CY93A-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107257256-1686815759701-gettyimages-1251498029-AFP_33CY93A.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A job fair in China’s southwestern city of Chongqing on April 11, 2023. Str | Afp | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



The global economy is on course to record its worst half decade of growth in 30 years, according to the World Bank.



Global growth is forecast to slow for the third year in a row in 2024, dipping to 2.4% from 2.6% in 2023, the organization said in its latest “Global Economic Prospects” report released Tuesday.



Growth is then expected to rise marginally to 2.7% in 2025, though acceleration over the five-year period will remain almost three-quarters of a percentage point below the average rate of the 2010s.



And despite the global economy proving resilient in the face of recessionary risks in 2023, increased geopolitical tensions will present fresh near-term challenges, the organization said, leaving most economies set to grow more slowly in 2024 and 2025 than they did in the previous decade.



“You have a war in Eastern Europe, the Russian invasion of Ukraine. You have a serious conflict in the Middle East. Escalation of these conflicts could have significant implications for energy prices that could have impacts on inflation as well as on economic growth,” Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist and director of the Prospects Group, told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro.



The bank warned that without a “major course correction,” the 2020s will go down as “a decade of wasted opportunity.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-developing-economies-to-be-hit-hardest"><a></a>Developing economies to be hit hardest</h2>



On a regional basis, growth this year is set to weaken most in North America, Europe and Central Asia, and Asia-Pacific — mainly on account of slower expansion in China. A slight improvement is forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean, coming off a low base, while more marked pickups are expected in the Middle East and Africa.



Still, developing economies are set to be the hardest hit on a medium-term basis as sluggish global trade and tight financial conditions weigh heavily on growth.



“Near-term growth will remain weak, leaving many developing countries — especially the poorest — stuck in a trap: with paralyzing levels of debt and tenuous access to food for nearly one out of every three people,” Gill said.



Developing economies are now expected to grow by just 3.9% in 2024, more than 1 percentage point below the average of the previous decade. By the end of the year, people in about 1 out of every 4 developing countries and about 40% of low-income countries will still be poorer than they were on the eve of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2019, the organization said.



The bank said the data showed that the world was failing in its goal of making the 2020s a “transformative decade” in tackling extreme poverty, major communicable diseases and climate change. However, it added that there was an opportunity to turn the tide if governments act quickly to increase investment and strengthen fiscal policy frameworks.



“Investment booms have the potential to transform developing economies and help them speed up the energy transition and achieve a wide variety of development objectives,” Kose said in the report, released ahead of the World Economic Forum next week — where international business and political leaders gather at the annual meeting to discuss global politics, economics and social issues.



“To spark such booms, developing economies need to implement comprehensive policy packages to improve fiscal and monetary frameworks, expand cross-border trade and financial flows, improve the investment climate, and strengthen the quality of institutions,” he said.



“That is hard work, but many developing economies have been able to do it before. Doing it again will help mitigate the projected slowdown in potential growth in the rest of this decade.”

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Global economy set for its worst half decade of growth in 30 years, World Bank says

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-444650" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Greece has been struggling with forest fires that could not be controlled for 10 days on July 27, 2023 in Rhodes, Greece. Dia Images | Getty Images News | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Scientists on Tuesday confirmed 2023 as the hottest year on record and warned that the planet is now within touching distance of smashing through the critical warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius.



The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said 2023, a year in which one researcher described temperature anomalies as “absolutely gobsmackingly bananas,” was the warmest calendar year in global temperature data stretching back to 1850.



The 12-month period ended with a global average temperature of 14.98 degrees Celsius, almost 0.2 degree Celsius higher than the previous record set in 2016.



Extreme heat is fueled by the climate crisis, the chief driver of which is the burning of fossil fuels.



Scientists at C3S said 2023 was the first time on record that every day within a year surpassed 1 degree Celsius above the preindustrial reference period of 1850 to 1900, while nearly 50% of days were over 1.5 degrees Celsius.



What’s more, the EU’s climate change service said two days in November were found to have surpassed 2 degrees Celsius for the first time ever.



Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S, said in a statement Tuesday that 2023 was “an exceptional year with climate records tumbling like dominoes.”



The findings come after repeated warnings in recent years about the likelihood of the world climbing above the aspirational goal of the landmark Paris Agreement.



The 2015 accord aims to “limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels” and calls for countries to take concerted climate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming.



The importance of the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is widely recognized as an indicator of the point at which climate impacts become increasingly harmful for people and the planet.



The world has already warmed by around 1.1 degrees Celsius after over a century of burning fossil fuels as well as unequal and unsustainable energy and land use. Indeed, it is this temperature increase that is fueling a series of extreme weather events around the world.

107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C

Hottest year on record puts Earth in touching distance of critical warming threshold, scientists say

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-444613" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">PARIS, FRANCE &#8211; DECEMBER 20: French Education Minister Gabriel Attal during the weekly cabinet meeting at the presidential Elysee Palace on December 20 2023 in Paris, France. (Photo by Christian Liewig &#8211; Corbis/Getty Images) Christian Liewig &#8211; Corbis | Corbis News | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday named Gabriel Attal as the country’s new prime minister, as he seeks to set a fresh course ahead of the summer’s European Union elections.



Attal, the current education minister, will become the youngest person to occupy France’s second-highest office at 34 years old.



It follows the apparently reluctant resignation of Elisabeth Borne on Monday afternoon, who said in a letter that she had been informed it was Macron’s wish. Borne said it was “more necessary than ever to continue the reforms” being carried out by the government.



In France, the prime minister leads the government and is appointed by, but cannot be directly dismissed by, the president.



Macron and Borne struggled through a turbulent 2023, with the government narrowly avoiding being toppled amid lawmaker and public opposition to its move to raise the retirement age.



The government suffered another blow in December, when an initial draft of an immigration bill seen as a signature Macron policy was voted down. It eventually passed after it was redrafted to become more hardline.



Macron’s personal disapproval rating is currently 68%, according to a Politico aggregate of polls.



Ensemble, a liberal coalition comprising Macron’s Renaissance party, is trailing both the far-right National Rally and left-wing New Ecological and Social People’s Union.



Attal, a close ally of Macron, is the most popular government minister, polls suggest. He will be the first openly gay prime minister of France.



“I know I can count on your energy and your commitment to implement the rearmament and regeneration project that I announced,” Macron said on X, formerly Twitter, addressing Attal.



The political move comes ahead of elections for the European Parliament in June, in which Renaissance is seeking to avoid an embarrassing blow given its series of political controversies.



The choice of the relatively junior Attal, rather than one of several more senior ministers who were reportedly vying for the role, was likely an effort to avoid infighting within the party ahead of the elections, political consultant Julien Hoez told CNBC.



“There have been many rumors of friction between Macron and Borne, with Borne resistant to be seen as the sacrificial lamb fronting the government’s less popular positions,” Hoez said by phone.



“With all the drama of last year, the riots that were never properly responded to, the immigration law fiasco, the pension reform, Macron likely thought the time had come to move on and provide a palate cleanser.”



“Attal is reasonably well known, with a reputation for working hard. But overall policy is not going to change much from Macron’s existing agenda,” he added.

107355902-1704799006982-gettyimages-1862396365-li1_5971

Gabriel Attal becomes France’s youngest prime minister in modern history

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107120142-16633564462022-09-16t191457z_1721273427_rc2iiw9db23x_rtrmadp_0_usa-safrica-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-444579" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107120142-16633564462022-09-16t191457z_1721273427_rc2iiw9db23x_rtrmadp_0_usa-safrica-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107120142-16633564462022-09-16t191457z_1721273427_rc2iiw9db23x_rtrmadp_0_usa-safrica-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107120142-16633564462022-09-16t191457z_1721273427_rc2iiw9db23x_rtrmadp_0_usa-safrica-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107120142-16633564462022-09-16t191457z_1721273427_rc2iiw9db23x_rtrmadp_0_usa-safrica-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107120142-16633564462022-09-16t191457z_1721273427_rc2iiw9db23x_rtrmadp_0_usa-safrica.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">U.S. President Joe Biden greets South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, September 16, 2022. Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



South Africa’s genocide accusation against Israel has placed further strain on an already frayed relationship with the U.S. and could have serious diplomatic ramifications.



The International Court of Justice, the UN’s highest legal body, will this week hear a case brought by South Africa that accuses Israel of committing genocide against Palestinian people during the assault on the Gaza Strip. The suit also seeks an emergency suspension of the military campaign.



U.S. National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby last week called the lawsuit “meritless, counterproductive, and completely without any basis in fact whatsoever,” while Israel has rejected it as “blood libel.”



This is the latest divergence in a series of diplomatic disagreements between Washington and Pretoria, which the U.S. sees as being too close to Russia and China.



In May 2023, when U.S. Ambassador Reuben Brigety accused South Africa of running guns for Russia via a mystery merchant ship. A South African inquiry found no evidence of the alleged arms shipment, but ties between the two historical allies remained taut.



Prior to that, Brigety and other U.S. officials had repeatedly criticized Pretoria for its policy of non-alignment regarding the war in Ukraine, which Washington interpreted as favoring Russia.



South African President Cyril Ramaphosa fiercely refuted the suggestion, and his government has since further clarified that it does not support Russia’s invasion.



Yet Chris Vandome, senior research fellow at Chatham House’s Africa Programme, told CNBC on Monday that the conflict in the Gaza Strip has erupted at a time when the U.S.-South Africa relationship is “at a low point.”



“Over the past two years a succession of frustrations, including South Africa feeling it is being pushed on Russia-Ukraine, the U.S. Ambassador’s statements on South African domestic security and on its relationship with Russia, and U.S. policy on China in Africa, have all contributed to the worsening of this relationship,” Vandome said.



Though Africa’s most industrialized nation has long been a “thorn in the side” of the White House as far as Israel-Palestine is concerned, Vandome suggested that the latest divergences are compounding these frustrations.



“Debates in Washington regarding whether South Africa should continue to benefit from AGOA [the African Growth and Opportunity Act] have spurred diplomatic efforts from South Africa to protect its most important investment partners, but many in the county view such discussions as threats which only serves to harden ideological anti-western positions,” he explained.



Enacted in 2000, AGOA is a key tenet of U.S. economic policy in Africa that provides duty-free access to the U.S. market for over 1,800 products across 32 eligible countries in 2024.



The Office of the United States Trade Representative stipulates that, in order to meet the rigorous eligibility requirements, countries must “establish or make continual progress toward establishing a market-based economy, the rule of law, political pluralism, and the right to due process.”



“Additionally, countries must eliminate barriers to U.S. trade and investment, enact policies to reduce poverty, combat corruption, and protect human rights,” the USTR states.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-solidarity-against-apartheid-oppression">‘Solidarity against apartheid oppression’</h3>



South Africa’s close relationship with Russia is based on a multitude of factors past and present. Pretoria has repeatedly cited the USSR’s historical anti-apartheid support, and there is a pragmatic impetus to maintain friendly ties with a fellow BRICS member.



During a visit from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov last January, South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor said that BRICS countries should play a proactive role in the emergence of a “redesigned global order.”



But the ruling African National Congress’ support for Palestinian territories is different, Vandome explained, in that it is rooted in “solidarity against apartheid oppression” — a cause inextricably linked to the party’s founding ideology.



“Support for Palestine has been a mainstay of ANC international relations policy since before the dawn of democracy, and it has been one of the few countries to take such a long and consistent position,” he said.



“The entrenchment of support for Palestine within ANC party documents voted on and accepted at party conferences means that the President would be going against the will of the Party if he were to adopt a different position at national level, and this would leave him very politically exposed to detractors from opposing factions.”



South Africa’s elections this year are billed as the most significant since the dawn of democracy following the end of apartheid in 1994. The ANC faces a serious challenge from the majority-white main opposition Democratic Alliance and is projected to fall below the 50% threshold to govern for the first time in 30 years.



This opens the door to potential coalition discussions with smaller parties, and though foreign policy issues aren’t typically a deciding factor in South African elections, the Israel-Gaza divide could complicate how these coalitions are formed.



“This issue could prevent a ‘coalition of the centre ground’ between the ANC and DA, which was a stronger possibility before the parties adopted divergent positions on this,” Vandome said.



“Furthermore, it could impact party funding, with some businesses that had previously supported the ruling party now withholding support.”

107120142-16633564462022-09-16t191457z_1721273427_rc2iiw9db23x_rtrmadp_0_usa-safrica

U.S. slams ‘meritless’ Israel genocide suit, reigniting tensions with South Africa

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-443136" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107354239-1704378066799-gettyimages-1773121742-js1_7395_t864nkzd.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A now hiring sign is posted in front of a U-Haul rental center on November 03, 2023 in San Rafael, California. Justin Sullivan | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



When the December jobs report is released Friday morning, markets will be looking for a number that hits a sweet spot between not so robust as to trigger more interest rate hikes and not so slow as to raise worries about the economy.



In market jargon, that quest for the middle is sometimes referred to as a “Goldilocks” number — not too hot, not too cold — that can be difficult to find.



But in this case, the good news is that the range looks to be pretty wide with a higher probability of good news than bad.



While the Dow Jones estimate is for a nonfarm payrolls gain of 170,000, Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial, said the acceptable range is really something like 100,000-250,000.



“I just feel like we have a much better receptivity to good news being good news now that we know that that’s not going to induce another rate hike,” Hogan said. “It’s just going to push off a rate cut.”



As things stand, markets figure the Federal Reserve is done hiking rates and could start cutting as early as March, eventually lopping off 1.5 percentage points from its benchmark rate by the end of 2024. Recent news coming out of the Fed is pushing back at least a little on that anticipated trajectory, and a strong jobs number could dampen the likelihood of policy easing that quickly.



“If we were to get above [250,000], then people might look at that and say we have to cancel March as a potential rate cut and maybe take one off the table for this year,” Hogan said. “Frankly, we know we’re at a place now where the Fed is done raising rates. So if that’s the case, clearly good news could be good news. It’s just how good the news could be before you get concerned that some of the hope for rate cuts might get pushed out into the back half of the year.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-high-hopes-for-cuts"><a></a>High hopes for cuts</h2>



Markets have gotten off to a rocky start in the new year as rate-sensitive Big Tech stocks have lagged. Traders are anticipating that the Fed will ease up on monetary policy, though such an aggressive schedule of cuts could imply something more than winning the battle against inflation and instead may infer economic weakness that forces the central bank’s hand.



Hogan said investors should be taking that into consideration when thinking about the impact of lower rates.



“This is a market that’s gotten itself a little jazzed up about rate cuts and when they’re going to happen,” he said. “People need to focus on why they’re going to happen.”



“If the wheels are coming off the economic cart and the Fed has to rush in to stimulate that, that’s bad rate cuts, right?” he added. “The good rate cuts are if the path of inflation continues toward the Fed’s target. That’s a good rate cut. So if that doesn’t happen until the second half, I’m fine with that.”



As usual, markets will be looking at more than the headline payrolls number for the health of the labor market.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-digging-through-details"><a></a>Digging through details</h2>



Wages have been a concern as an inflation component. The expectation for average hourly earnings is a 12-month growth rate of 3.9%. If that proves accurate, it will be the first time wage gains come in under 4% since mid-2021.



The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 3.8%, which will still keep it below 4% for 23 straight months.



“The overall picture is one in which the labor market is gradually decelerating in a very orderly fashion,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at online jobs marketplace ZipRecruiter. “I expect December to continue the trend of just gradual cooling to around 150,000 [new jobs], and possibly a small uptick in unemployment because so many people have been pouring into the workforce.”



The labor force grew by about 3.3 million in 2023 through November, though the trend has had little impact on the unemployment rate, which was up just 0.1 percentage point from the same month in 2022.



However, Pollak noted that the hiring rate is still below where it was prior to the Covid pandemic. The quits rate, a Labor Department measure that is looked at as a sign of worker confidence in finding new employment, has tumbled to 2.2% after peaking at 3% during the so-called Great Resignation in 2021 and 2022.



The jobs picture overall has shifted since then, with the once-hot tech sector now lagging in terms of job openings and health care taking the lead, according to Nick Bunker, economic research director at the Indeed Hiring Lab.



“We’re seeing a labor market that is not as tight and as hot as what we saw the last couple years,” Bunker said. “But it’s got into a groove that seems more sustainable.”

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