Japan’s largest rice shortage in years is exacerbated by sushi-hungry tourists

Japan’s largest rice shortage in years is exacerbated by sushi-hungry tourists, weather

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042845-1727966861492-gettyimages-2175574979-US_JOBS-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-538264" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042845-1727966861492-gettyimages-2175574979-US_JOBS-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042845-1727966861492-gettyimages-2175574979-US_JOBS-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042845-1727966861492-gettyimages-2175574979-US_JOBS-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042845-1727966861492-gettyimages-2175574979-US_JOBS-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042845-1727966861492-gettyimages-2175574979-US_JOBS-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042845-1727966861492-gettyimages-2175574979-US_JOBS.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Attendees at the Albany Job Fair in Latham, New York, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024.  Angus Mordant | Bloomberg | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



September’s jobs picture is expected to look a lot like August’s — a gradual slowdown in hiring from earlier this year, a modest increase in wages and a labor market that is looking a lot like many policymakers had hoped it would.



Nonfarm payrolls are projected to show growth of 150,000, from 142,000 the month before, with a steady unemployment rate of 4.2%, according to the Dow Jones consensus. On the wage side, the forecast is for a 0.3% monthly gain and a 3.8% increase from a year ago — the annual rate being the same as August.



Should the numbers come in as expected, they would hit close to a sweet spot allowing the Federal Reserve to continue to lower interest rates without a sense of urgency that it could be behind the curve and at risk of causing a recession.



“The jobs market is slowing down and becoming less tight,” said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management. “The balance of power has shifted back to employers and away from employees, and that certainly will alleviate the wage pressure, which has been a key component of inflation. We’ve been team soft-landing for a while, and this is exactly what a soft landing looks like.”



Of course, there’s always the possibility of a substantial upside or downside surprise to the numbers. Then there are the monthly revisions that have been dramatic at times, causing the Labor Department to overcount hiring by more than 800,000 for the 12-month period through March 2024, adding uncertainty to jobs market analysis.



“While we’re looking at 150,000 jobs added, I would not be surprised if it comes in at 50,000 and I would not be surprised if it comes in at 250,000,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “I don’t think people should get too freaked out either way about this number.”



The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the report at 8:30 a.m. While there will still be one more nonfarm payrolls count before the presidential vote next month, the October report is expected to be distorted by the dock workers’ strike as well as Hurricane Helene — making September the last “clean” report before Election Day.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-looking-for-clues"><a></a>Looking for clues</h2>



Still, markets will in fact be watching the report closely.



Specifically, they’ll be looking for indications as to whether the Fed will be able to loosen policy and lower interest rates in a gradual manner more in keeping with prior easing cycles, or will have to repeat the dramatic half percentage point interest rate cut it implemented in September.



At the same meeting where they approved the reduction, policymakers indicated another half percentage point, or 50 basis points, in cuts before the end of 2024 and another full percentage point in 2025. Markets, though, are pricing in a more aggressive schedule.



“A strong number wouldn’t really change their position,” JPMorgan’s Kelly said. “A weak number could tempt them to another 50 basis points.”



However, Kelly said the Fed is more likely to look at the employment picture as a “mosaic” rather than just an individual data point.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-bigger-picture"><a></a>The bigger picture</h2>



For the past several months, labor market indicators have been trending lower, though far from falling off a cliff. Manufacturing and services sector surveys have pointed to slower hiring, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier this week characterized the labor market as solid but softening.



Excluding a brief slump at the onset of the Covid pandemic, the last time the monthly hiring rate was the level seen this summer — 3.3% of the labor force in both June and August — was in October 2013 when the unemployment rate was 7.2%, according to Labor Department data.



Job openings also have fallen and pushed the ratio of available positions to unemployed workers down to 1.1 to 1, from 2 to 1 just a couple years ago.



However, a kind of stasis has hit a labor market that not that long ago was wrestling with the “Great Resignation” as workers confident they could find better deals elsewhere left their jobs en masse.



Excluding the pandemic gyrations in 2020, the quits rate hasn’t been lower than its current 1.9% since December 2014, while the separations rate, even including Covid, was last lower than the current 3.1% in December 2012.



“Whatever leverage labor had, [it] has dissipated or just eased as the economy’s normalized,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at tax consultancy RSM. “So we’re going to have a lot less turnover. We’re seeing it in our business. We’re hearing it from our clients.”



Still, had someone told Brusuelas back during the Covid tumult four years ago that the economy would be adding nearly 150,000 jobs a month now with an unemployment rate in the low 4% range, he said, “I’d have bought you a steak dinner.”

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Here’s everything to expect when the September jobs report is released Friday

Why we build robots that look and move like humans

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042150-1727870753022-gettyimages-1402178496-mt_25085_c18473a3-f9fe-4ce4-93d8-345c2499380c-820x462.png" alt="" class="wp-image-537837" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042150-1727870753022-gettyimages-1402178496-mt_25085_c18473a3-f9fe-4ce4-93d8-345c2499380c-820x462.png 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042150-1727870753022-gettyimages-1402178496-mt_25085_c18473a3-f9fe-4ce4-93d8-345c2499380c-300x169.png 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042150-1727870753022-gettyimages-1402178496-mt_25085_c18473a3-f9fe-4ce4-93d8-345c2499380c-160x90.png 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042150-1727870753022-gettyimages-1402178496-mt_25085_c18473a3-f9fe-4ce4-93d8-345c2499380c-768x432.png 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108042150-1727870753022-gettyimages-1402178496-mt_25085_c18473a3-f9fe-4ce4-93d8-345c2499380c.png 1480w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Mario Tama | Getty Images News | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



President Joe Biden and his administration are sticking to their position of not invoking the Taft-Hartley Act to force International Longshoremen’s Association dock workers back on the job at East and Gulf coast ports where a strike is hitting day two on Wednesday, a political decision that reflects the power of unions one month out from an election but risks losing some progress on what is the No. 1 issue for many voters: the economy.



Rhetoric from Cabinet secretaries, including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and acting Labor Secretary Julie Su, has become sharper in recent days, pointing the finger at the ports ownership and ocean carriers. But right now, there is no sign of any progress bringing the ILA and port owners back to the table for a new round of negotiations, according to CNBC sources. And there remains a big risk on the other side of the political decision-making: wage increases that are a win for workers but ultimately ripple through the economy in the form of higher prices, both domestically and around the world.



Much of the focus about the economic impact of the ports strike to date has been focused on the direct hit to the economy from the massive trade shutdown, and the ways in which supply chain congestion and delays can result in higher prices being passed along to consumers, which will become a bigger factor the longer a strike persists. But maritime and business experts are also warning about the risk of persistent wage inflation making its way into supply chain prices that the Federal Reserve has recently been successful in taming.



“The wage increase would indeed be passed on and eventually be paid by the importers,” said Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, a maritime shipping consultant. “The inflationary impact would vary dramatically depending on the value of the goods inside the container,” he said, adding the influence would be an even bigger impact for agricultural exporters.



The ILA’s president, Harold Daggett, is seeking a raise as high as $5 per hour, per year, over a six-year period in a new contract for union port workers in a labor battle with the United States Maritime Alliance. The USMX, which represents port ownership, last offered what it described as a nearly 50% wage increase over six years on Monday, an offer rejected by the union. The USMX reiterated that offer on Tuesday, saying in a statement that its “current offer of a nearly 50% wage increase exceeds every other recent union settlement, while addressing inflation, and recognizing the ILA’s hard work to keep the global economy running.”



But Daggett countered claims of any “significant increase,” saying in the ILA’s own Tuesday statement that the USMX “conveniently omit that many of our members are operating multi-million-dollar container-handling equipment for a mere $20 an hour. In some states, the minimum wage is already $15.” The ILA president added that “the USMX also overlooks the fact that two-thirds of our members are constantly on call, with no guaranteed employment if no ships are being worked. Our members qualify for benefits only based on the hours they worked the previous year, making them vulnerable if there’s a downturn in work.”



Daggett told CNBC on Tuesday morning that the ILA is seeking a wage increase of 61.5%.



The USMX has not reached back out to the ILA with any new counteroffer, and the sides are not currently at the negotiating table, according to sources granted anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the labor discussions.



While a significant wage hike would undoubtedly be a big win for workers and a resurgent labor movement — which has used extreme terminology to tell Biden what it would think of a decision to intervene in the strike — with the union and port ownership group at an impasse, the ocean carriers have begun to take steps to protect their own financial position in the near term for as long as a strike persists. CMA CGM, one of the world’s largest ocean carriers, declared a force majeure on Tuesday, a legal maneuver to free itself of contract requirements with shipping clients due to forces beyond its control, and said it “may charge any additional operational costs” associated with vessels delayed due to the strike to cargo on the water as of Oct. 1, 2024 with a U.S. East or Gulf coast port of discharge.



Biden said Tuesday that his administration will be “monitoring for any price gouging activity” that benefits foreign ocean carriers, including those on the USMX board. He also said “foreign ocean carriers have made record profits since the pandemic, when Longshoremen put themselves at risk to keep ports open.”



Based on prior port strikes, ocean carriers normally profit from soaring freight rates based on demand for other ports as well as detention and demurrage fees on containers stranded during a ports shutdown. Analysts have been warning ocean spot rates could increase by 20%-50%. UBS forecast that 20% of Maersk’s total volume would touch a U.S. port that would be impacted by the strike. Maersk is on the board of the USMX. UBS estimated that if freight rates increased 30% over two quarters, a revenue tail wind of more than $1 billion would be generated.



Buttigieg said Tuesday that the DOT is monitoring “any attempts by companies to opportunistically raise prices, including ocean shippers or others,” and called on ocean carriers to withdraw surcharges. “No one should exploit a disruption for profit,” he said in a DOT statement. He added that the Federal Maritime Commission will use expanded authority signed into law by Biden to “ensure any fees assessed are legitimate and lawful.”



But the still more significant price hikes would occur after a successful deal for the ILA, according to some economists, even though the total number of workers involved in the strike, at around 50,000, is a blip in a U.S. labor market that employs well over 100 million people. It comes amid other union battles across the U.S. economy targeting aviation and automakers. “The scale of wage demands at the ports,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/23/boeing-labor-proposal-best-and-final-offer-strike.html">at Boeing</a>, and at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/19/uaw-warns-of-potential-strikes-at-ford-stellantis.html">autoworkers</a>, make one laugh at the claims that the labor market is soft and that wage inflation is dead,” said Larry Lindsey,&nbsp;CEO of The Lindsey Group.



Acting Labor Secretary Su lashed out at the idea that labor wage increases would be passed onto U.S. exporters and importers.



“At the same time that we were urging them to put a fair offer on the table to avoid all the disruption, they were calculating how much of a surcharge they could charge for shipping in light of a strike,” said Su said in an interview. “I mean, it’s really an outrageous position.”



For months, logistics and business trade groups representing major industries from retail to manufacturing and agriculture have sent numerous letters to Biden and his administration urging intervention. Now, with the president sticking to his position that collective bargaining is the only means for a “fair deal” for the ILA, executives across the economy are beginning to weight the potential pricing impacts for their business models.



“It quickly renders our U.S. agriculture exports much less competitive in the global marketplace,” said Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition, of any logistics rate increases his sector would see. “Our foreign customers can satisfy their food, farm, and fiber needs from other countries, which is where they will go, &nbsp;as costs of moving containers through U.S. ports continue to increase.”



Su said she is very sympathetic to the needs of the business community, but stuck to the administration’s position. “I’ve been in many conversations with them too,” she said. “I understand just how important the impact of a good resolution is. I know they understand, just as consumers and American workers understand, that foreign companies who profit from our economy and who employ American workers and have an impact on American consumers should do the right thing, and in that battle, we are always going to stand with American workers, American businesses and American consumers.”



The Federal Reserve has recently become more concerned about the labor market than inflation and has begun cutting interest rates to “recalibrate” its monetary policy in a bid to prevent a rise in layoffs and betting inflation is on its way back to 2%, which recent data supports. In the most recent nonfarm payrolls report for August, average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% on the month and 3.8% from a year ago, both higher than estimates. The September nonfarm payrolls report is due out Friday and in the short term, the union battle could influence the data on both wages and layoffs.



The big payroll report immediately ahead of the government data, the ADP private payrolls report, showed on Wednesday that while hiring increased, pay growth has continued to trend down. The annual gain for those remaining in their jobs decreased to 4.7%, while it fell even more for job switchers, to 6.6%, down 0.7 percentage point from August. The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report is the last the Fed will receive before its next interest rate policy decision in November, and it could include downward pressures in the labor market as well, influenced by both layoffs related to the strike and Hurricane Helene.



“This would just completely complicate everything that the Fed is trying to do because they’re not getting a read to what the economy is actually performing,” Jim Bianco, head of Bianco Research, told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday.



In the longer-term analysis, the wage increase being sought by the union will confirm that wage growth is not going back to its pre-Covid trend, of about 2.5%, according to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. Instead, he estimates it will settle around 4%, which will put a floor under inflation.



“I continue to believe that after the disinflation plays out, which is mostly taking place in goods, 3-4% will be the normalized inflation rate,” said Boockvar. “And this wage deal, when it happens, will result in goods prices to inflect higher.”



At its recent September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Fed officials lowered their inflation outlook to 2.3% from 2.6% previously, and the central bank’s own supply chain indicator has stabilized after the pandemic shocks. But its forecast of a long-run neutral rate near 2.9% has moved higher as the Fed continues to pursue its stated mandate of 2% inflation.



“For those dependent on functioning ports for their livelihood, the collateral damage is often underestimated by those watching from afar,” said Alan Baer, CEO of logistics firm OL USA. &nbsp;



On Wednesday, the National Retail Federation coordinated a coalition of 272 trade associations including manufacturers, farmers, wholesalers, retailers, restaurants, and importers and exporters, to send another letter to Biden pleading for him to end the strike.



Steve Lamar, CEO of the American Apparel &amp; Footwear Association, one of the groups which signed the letter, said it’s imperative that the Biden administration use all the tools at its disposal, including its authorities under Taft-Hartley, to keep the parties at the negotiating table, the ports opened and goods moving efficiently. “Allowing the status quo to persist increases the likelihood that this port crisis will hurt our industry and the overall U.S. economy through job losses, higher prices, and goods shortages,” said Lamar.



In December 2022, Biden signed legislation making a planned freight rail strike illegal, even though key issues sought by rail workers and their unions were not included in the bill. At that time, the president said it “helps our nation avoid what, without a doubt, would have been an economic catastrophe at a very bad time in the calendar.”



That situation put “union Joe” Biden in a difficult position, but he said at the time of the signing that while his support for unions was as strong as ever, as president of the United States, rather than a single senator from Delaware, it was his job to look out for all Americans.&nbsp;



— Reporting by CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this article.



Correction: Lars Jensen is CEO of Vespucci Maritime. An earlier version misspelled his name.

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The East and Gulf coast ports strike could be a no-win situation for the Biden administration

Will Tesla Robotaxis Live Up To 10 Years Of Development And Hype?

Real threat of oil supply disruptions after latest Iran-Israel escalation

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-529012" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA.jpg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-300x205.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-132x90.jpg 132w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-768x525.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



Oil watchers are now seeing a genuine threat to crude supplies after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel, escalating conflict in the Middle East.



Iran on Tuesday launched the strike on Israel in retaliation for its recent killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and an Iranian commander in Lebanon.



Iranian oil infrastructure may soon become a target for Israel as it considers a countermove, analysts told CNBC.



“The Middle East conflict may finally impact oil supply,” said Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee. “The scope for a material disruption to oil supply is now imminent.”



These latest developments could be a gamechanger, after a prolonged period of “geopolitical risk fatigue” during which traders brushed off threats of oil supply disruptions stemming from the situation in the Middle East as well as Ukraine, he said.



Up to 4% of global oil supply is at risk as the conflict now directly envelopes Iran, and an attack or tighter sanctions could send prices to $100 per barrel again, Kavonic added.



Iran’s latest missile attack followed Israel’s deployment of ground troops into southern Lebanon, intensifying its offensive against Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. Most of the 200 missiles launched were intercepted by Israeli and U.S. defenses, and there were no reported fatalities in Israel as a result of the attack.



The attack came on the heels of Israel’s deployment of ground forces into south Lebanon, escalating its offensive on Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. Oil prices gained over 5% in the previous session following the missile strike, before tapering to a 2% climb. Global benchmark Brent is now trading 1.44% higher at $74.62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.62% to $70.95 per barrel.



Since the armed Israel-Hamas conflict started Oct. 7 of last year, disruptions to the oil market has been limited. The oil market also remains under pressure as increased production from the U.S. add to the supply picture, and sputtering Chinese demand have depressed prices, said Andy Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates.



Iran is the third largest producer among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, producing almost four million barrels of oil per day, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-new-phase-of-the-war"><a></a>New phase of the war?</h2>



Other analysts echoed Kavonic’s warning.



“As Israel turns from Gaza to Lebanon and Iran, the war is entering a new and more energy-related phase,” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC, adding that he expects Israel’s retaliation for the missile attack to be “disproportionately large.”



“It’s going to get worse before it gets better,” he said.



Ross Schaap, head of research at GeoQuant, which leverages structural and high-frequency data to generate political risk scores, said that the organization’s risk analysis model of the Israel-Iran conflict, which has remained in three standard deviations of the average trend over the past 12 years, saw a significant spike after the latest missile strikes.



These results indicate that “much bigger events” are expected, said Schaap said.



Josh Young, CIO of Bison Interests, who is similarly observing an increasing likelihood of a potential strike on Iranian oil infrastructure oil supply disruption,&nbsp;said that this marks a “significant escalation” by Iran.



Should Iranian exports go offline due to an attack, Young predicts that oil prices will surge to more than $100 per barrel.

FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, Russia

Oil watchers now see a real threat of supply disruptions after latest Iran-Israel escalation

<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/16/trump-iran-kill-plot-secret-service.html">Iran</a>&nbsp;on Tuesday launched a ballistic missile attack on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/24/we-have-much-more-on-the-way-if-they-will-continue-israels-president-warns-hezbollah.html">Israel</a>&nbsp;in retaliation for its recent killing of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/29/israel-pounds-lebanon-pressuring-hezbollah-after-killing-its-leader.html">Hezbollah</a>&nbsp;leader&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/28/hezbollah-leader-hassan-nasrallah-killed-in-strike-israeli-army-says.html">Hassan Nasrallah</a>&nbsp;and an Iranian commander in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/01/israeli-forces-launch-ground-offensive-in-lebanon-as-markets-eye-escalation-.html">Lebanon</a>.



The attack came on the heels of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/30/israeli-military-says-limited-operation-against-hezbollah-targets-in-southern-lebanon-has-begun.html">Israel</a>’s deployment of ground forces into south Lebanon, escalating its offensive on Hezbollah, a militant group backed by Iran.



“In response to the martyrdom of Martyr Haniyeh, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, and Martyr Nilforoushan, we have targeted the heart of the occupied territories,” the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/irans-revolutionary-guards" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps</a>&nbsp;said in a statement after missiles began appearing in the skies over Israel.



“Should the Zionist regime respond to Iran’s operation, it will face crushing attack,” said the IRGC, Iran’s paramilitary organization.



Abbas Nilforoushan was an Iranian Revolutionary Guards deputy commander, who was killed with Nasrallah in a bombing by Israel last Friday in Beirut, Lebanon.



<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/31/iran-says-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-was-assassinated-in-tehran.html">Ismail Haniyeh</a>&nbsp;was the political commander of the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/07/hamas-new-political-leader-yahya-sinwar-is-seen-as-more-extreme.html">Hamas</a>&nbsp;terror group, who was killed in July by an Israeli strike on Tehran, the capital of Iran. Israel has been engaged in a brutal war on Hamas since the group launched the Oct. 7 terror attack on Israel from Gaza.



There were only two people reported lightly injured from shrapnel from the missile attack in the Tel Aviv area, according to Israeli authorities. There were also some minor injuries reported across Israel involving people moving to safe spaces.



The Israel Defense Forces announced that citizens were allowed to leave protected spaces across the country just after 1:30 p.m. ET.



A White House official on Tuesday warned that any direct attack on Israel by Iran “will carry severe consequences for Iran.”



“We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack,” the official said.



That official and a Defense Department official said that Iran was expected to target military and government sites, not civilian locations.



Sirens wailed around Israel during Tuesday’s attack.



President&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/joe-biden/">Joe Biden</a>&nbsp;met Tuesday afternoon with Vice President&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/kamala-harris/">Kamala Harris</a>&nbsp;and national security officials to discuss the attack, the White House said.



“They reviewed the status of U.S. preparations to help Israel defend against attacks and protect U.S. personnel,” White House senior deputy press secretary Emilie Simons said in a post on the social media site X.



<a href="https://il.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-jerusalem-26/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem</a>&nbsp;directed all U.S. government employees and their families in Israel to “shelter in place until further notice.”



The embassy in the same notice said it “reminds U.S. citizens of the continued need for caution and increased personal security awareness as security incidents, including mortar and rocket fire and unmanned aircraft system UAS intrusions, often take place without warning.”



“The security environment remains complex and can change quickly depending on the political situation and recent events,” the notice said.



Iran’s suspected planned attack came a day after Israeli ground forces crossed into south&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/01/israeli-forces-launch-ground-offensive-in-lebanon-as-markets-eye-escalation-.html">Lebanon</a>&nbsp;as part of an attack on Hezbollah.



The number of Israeli troops who have entered Lebanon is in “the low hundreds,” an Israeli official told NBC News.



Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said the killing of Nasrallah and a senior Revolutionary Guards commander in that attack “will not go unanswered.” Araghchi said the United States was “complicit in this crime.”



The&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJI/">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>&nbsp;fell more than 250 points by 10 a.m. ET, spurred by a surge in the cost of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/01/crude-oil-prices-today.html">West Texas Intermediate crude oil</a>, on fears of heightened tensions in the petroleum-rich Middle East.



The WTI November contract was up nearly 3% by midmorning, hovering shy of $70 a barrel.



In April, Iran launched an attack on Israel that included more than 300 drones and ballistic missiles after two top Iranian commanders were killed by an Israeli airstrike in Syria.



Most of the missiles and drones were shot down by the Israeli and U.S. militaries.

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Iran launches missile attack on Israel for killing of Hezbollah leader, general

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108040874-1727707108673-gettyimages-2173990659-cfoto-chinasto240927_np79X-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-537077" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108040874-1727707108673-gettyimages-2173990659-cfoto-chinasto240927_np79X-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108040874-1727707108673-gettyimages-2173990659-cfoto-chinasto240927_np79X-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108040874-1727707108673-gettyimages-2173990659-cfoto-chinasto240927_np79X-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108040874-1727707108673-gettyimages-2173990659-cfoto-chinasto240927_np79X-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108040874-1727707108673-gettyimages-2173990659-cfoto-chinasto240927_np79X-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108040874-1727707108673-gettyimages-2173990659-cfoto-chinasto240927_np79X.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A customer watches stock market at a stock exchange in Hangzhou, China, on September 27, 2024.  Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING — The rocket higher in Chinese stocks so far looks different from the market bubble in 2015, analysts said.



Major mainland China stock indexes surged by more than 8% Monday, extending a winning streak on the back of stimulus hopes. Trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges hit 2.59 trillion yuan ($368.78 billion), surpassing a high of 2.37 trillion yuan on May 28, 2015, according to Wind Information.



Over six months from 2014 to 2015, the Chinese stock market doubled in value, while leverage climbed, Aaron Costello, regional head for Asia at Cambridge Associates, pointed out Monday.



This time around, the market hasn’t run up as much, while leverage is lower, he said. “We’re not in the danger zone yet.”



Stock market leverage by percentage and value were far higher in 2015 than data for Monday showed, according to Wind Information.



The Shanghai Composite in June 2015 soared past 5,100 points, a level it has never regained since a market plunge later that summer. MSCI that year delayed adding the mainland Chinese stocks to its globally tracked emerging markets index. Also hitting sentiment was Beijing’s back-and-forth on a crackdown on trading with borrowed funds and a surprise devaluation of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar.



This year, the yuan is trading stronger against the greenback, while foreign institutional allocation to Chinese stocks has fallen to multi-year lows.



The Shanghai Composite closed at 3,336.5 on Monday, before mainland exchanges closed for a week-long holiday commemorating the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China. Trading is set to resume on Oct. 8.



In the runup to the 2015 market rally, Chinese state media had encouraged stock market investment, while loose rules allowed people to buy stocks with borrowed funds. Beijing has long sought to build up its domestic stock market, which at roughly 30 years old is far younger than that of the U.S.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-strong-policy-signals"><a></a>Strong policy signals</h2>



The latest market gains follow announcements in the last week of economic support and programs to encourage institutions to put more money into stocks. The news helped stocks rebound from roughly their lowest levels of the year. The CSI 300 rallied by nearly 16% in its best week since 2008.



Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday led a high-level meeting that called for halting the real estate market’s decline as well as strengthening fiscal and monetary policy. The People’s Bank of China last week also cut interest rates and the amount existing mortgage holders need to pay.



“The policy is much stronger and [more] concerted this time than 2015. That said, the economy faces greater headwind[s] right now compared to back then,” said Zhu Ning, author of “China’s Guaranteed Bubble.”



One week of massive stock gains do not mean the economy is on its way to a similar recovery.



The CSI 300 remains more than 30% below its February 2021 high, a level that had even surpassed the index’s 2015 high.



“The Japanese experience provides an important perspective, as the Nikkei 225 Index bounced four times by an average of 34 per cent on its way to a 66 per cent cumulative drop from December 1989 to September 1998,” Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, pointed out Tuesday in a blog post that was also published in the Financial Times opinion section.



Economic data for the last few months have pointed to slower growth in retail sales and manufacturing. That raised concerns that China’s gross domestic product would not reach the full-year target of around 5% without additional stimulus.



“I think what’s missing is the key to a lot of this, that has not come out, which would be a truly confidence-boosting measure, is how are they going to fix the local government finances,” Costello said, noting local coffers once relied on land sales for revenue to spend on public services.



While Chinese authorities have cut interest rates and eased some home buying restrictions, the Ministry of Finance has yet to announce additional debt issuance to support growth.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-animal-spirits-at-play"><a></a>Animal spirits at play</h2>



Peter Alexander, founder and managing director of Z-Ben Advisors, expects the level of fiscal stimulus — when it’s likely announced in late October — to be less than what markets are hoping for.



It “may have investors a little bit over their skis, as people like to say,” he said Monday on CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia.”



He added in a written response that his experiences in 2007 and 2015 indicate the Chinese stock market rally could last for another three to six months, or abruptly end.



“This is pure animal instincts and the Chinese have been pent up for a stock market rally,” Alexander said. He added that there are market risks from how unprepared the stock trading system was for the surge of buying.



Data on the number of new retail investors in China this year wasn’t publicly available. Reports indicate brokerages have been overwhelmed with new requests, echoing how individuals piled into the stock market nearly a decade earlier. The Shanghai Stock Exchange on Friday said confirming transactions at the market open had been abnormally slow.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-looking-for-earnings-growth"><a></a>Looking for earnings growth</h2>



“China was cheap and was missing the catalyst. &#8230; The catalyst has occurred to unlock the value,” Costello said.



“Fundamentally we need to see corporate earnings go up,” he said. “If that doesn’t go up, this is all a short-term pop.”



Beijing’s efforts earlier this year to stem a market rout included changing the head of the securities regulator. Stocks climbed, only to see the rally peter out in May.



A factor that can send stocks past May levels is that earnings per share forecasts have stabilized versus downgrades earlier this year, James Wang, head of China strategy at UBS Investment Bank Research, said in a note Monday.



Lower U.S. interest rates, a stronger Chinese yuan, increased share buybacks and more coordinated policymaker response also support gains, he said. Wang’s latest price target of $70 on the MSCI China index is now just a few cents above where it closed Monday.



— CNBC’s Hui Jie Lim contributed to this report.

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China’s stock surge has echoes of the 2015 bubble. What’s different this time

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108041186-1727745894541-gettyimages-2175709455-port532972_nnwur8co-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-537041" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108041186-1727745894541-gettyimages-2175709455-port532972_nnwur8co-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108041186-1727745894541-gettyimages-2175709455-port532972_nnwur8co-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108041186-1727745894541-gettyimages-2175709455-port532972_nnwur8co-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108041186-1727745894541-gettyimages-2175709455-port532972_nnwur8co-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108041186-1727745894541-gettyimages-2175709455-port532972_nnwur8co-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108041186-1727745894541-gettyimages-2175709455-port532972_nnwur8co.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Shipping containers sit stacked in the Port of Newark on September 30, 2024 seen from New York City. A massive strike shutting down ports across the East and Gulf coasts began at midnight as members of the International Longshoremen’s Association continue to make salary and other demands to the United States Maritime Alliance, which controls many of the ports across the country.  Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Billions in trade came to a screeching halt at U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports after members of the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) began walking off the job after 12:01 a.m. ET on October 1. The ILA is North America’s largest longshoremen’s union, with roughly 50,000 of its 85,000 members making good on the threat to strike at 14 major ports subject to a just-expired master contract with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), and picketing workers beginning to appear at ports. The union and port ownership group failed to reach agreement by midnight on a new contract in a protracted battle over wage increases and use of automation.



In a last-ditch effort on Monday to avert a strike that will cause significant harm to the U.S. economy if it is lengthy — at least hundreds of millions of dollars a day at the largest ports like New York/New Jersey — the USMX offered a nearly 50% wage hike over six years, but that was rejected by the ILA, according to a source close to the negotiations. The port ownership group said it hoped the offer would lead to a resumption of collective bargaining.



The 14 ports where preparations for a strike have been underway are Boston, New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, Wilmington, North Carolina, Baltimore, Norfolk, Charleston, Savannah, Jacksonville, Tampa, Miami, New Orleans, Mobile, and Houston.



New York Governor Kathy Hochul said in a statement issued shortly after midnight that “the first large-scale eastern dockworker strike in 47 years began at ports from Maine to Texas, including at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. In preparation for this moment, New York has been working around the clock to ensure that our grocery stores and medical facilities have the essential products they need.”



Rhetoric from ILA leadership has been aggressive in the weeks leading up to the strike, with ILA president Harold Daggett, who was a union member the last time it went out on strike in 1977, telling rank-and-file members — who unanimously voted to authorize a strike — in a recent video message, “We’ll crush them.” 



In a video posted to an ILA Instagram account, Daggett addressed union workers at Maher Terminals in Elizabeth, New Jersey. “This is going down in history, what we’re doing here,” he said. “They can’t survive too long,” he added.



For now, it is the supply chain and U.S. economy which will take the immediate hit.



Shana Wray, principal solutions architect for supply chain intelligence firm FourKites, tells CNBC the strike comes at the worst possible time, with its impact on supply chain congestion to exacerbate the devastation left behind from Hurricane Helene.



“Helene caused ports to delay openings at the ports of Charleston and Savannah, as well as power losses at intermodal facilities in Savannah, Charleston, and Atlanta,” said Wray. “This created ocean, trucking, and rail carriers congestion across Southeast and Gulf ports.”



Logistics experts have told CNBC in recent months there has been an exodus of cargo from the East to West Coast, and companies moved up orders for peak shipping season due to the strike risk. Both economists and logistics executives say the impact of the strike depends on how long the work stoppage lasts.



“A disruption of a week or two will create some backlogs but the broader consequences will be minimal outside of a handful of very port-reliant areas, including Savannah,” said Adam Kamins, economist at Moody’s Analytics. “But anything longer will lead to shortages and upward price pressures,” he said.



The most significant issues would be faced by food and automobile industries, Kamins said, as they rely especially heavily on the ports that will be shut down. While a surge in inflation is highly unlikely even with a longer strike, even a modest reacceleration could create uncertainty and force the Federal Reserve to be more cautious about lowering interest rates, which would weigh on the overall outlook for job growth and investment.



A one-week strike could cost the U.S. economy $3.78 billion, according to an analysis by The Conference Board, and cause supply chain slowdowns through mid-November. In all, the ports threatened with strikes handle $3 trillion annually in U.S. annual international trade.



Many industries are preparing for major repercussions. Noushin Shamsili, CEO and president of Nuco Logistics, which specializes in pharmaceutical imports and exports, said the strike comes at a critical time for inventory replenishment for the pharma sector.



“Almost all of this industry is just on time,” said Shamsili. “Raw materials are being brought in to complete drug manufacturing. Medical supplies for clinics and hospitals are on these vessels. For a while importers did not bring in a lot of cargo because they were overflowing with supplies post-Covid. Now they have started reordering medical devices, gloves, syringes, and tubing.”



Shamsili also said the East Coast ports are a gateway for generic medicine made in India. Approximately 48% of the active pharmaceutical ingredients used in the U.S. are being imported from India. Without these APIs, medications cannot be produced. APIs are also manufactured in Europe, which also use the East Coast ports as U.S. points of entry.



Steve Lamar, CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, said these ports are critical for the retailing industry. In 2023, the East and Gulf Coast ports accounted for 53% of all U.S. apparel, footwear, and accessories imports, he said, amounting to over&nbsp;$92 billion&nbsp;in value.



“The clock is ticking away,” said Lamar. “Each strike day yields five more days of disruption as our consumer-driven economy gets snarled in port backlogs right as we hit the heavy holiday shopping season. Both sides need to get back to the table and the administration must be ready to use all of its tools to make sure this happens. Reaching a fair, long-term, and sustainable deal is job No. 1 for all parties.”



Importers such as Walmart — the No. 1 importer across the affected ports — as well as other top importers including Home Depot, Ikea, Samsung, and LG Electronics will find few to no options to divert trade to Canada or the West Coast as other unions close ranks in support of the ILA’s labor battle.



These companies are among the leading importers at the 14 major ports that an ILA strike would impact, according to ImportGenius data.



The last time the ILA went on strike in 1977 the ILWU union at West Coast ports supported it by allowing ILA members to go to the Port of Los Angeles to stop the unloading of diverted vessel. ILA president Daggett, who was involved in those actions as a young union member, recently cited this historical example in communications with the rank-and-file.



The ILA has also made clear that all of its members, including those not subject to the expired contract, will be closing ranks. “You can be sure the ILA’s 85,000 members will be supporting their Sisters and Brothers,” James McNamara, spokesman for the ILU, recently told CNBC.



The Teamsters issued a statement on Monday night from its president Sean O’Brien saying it stood “100%” with the ILA in the fight for a new contract and reminding its members that Teamsters do not cross picket lines. “The ocean carriers are on strike against themselves after failing to negotiate a contract that recognizes the value of these workers,” O’Brien stated, and he added some harsh words about any effort by the federal government to interfere in the labor action.



The National Retail Federation has said items on the vessels en route for October 1 arrival and after are restocking items for the holidays as well as just-in-time products like auto parts and pharmaceuticals.



Between 43%-49% of all U.S. imports and billions of dollars in trade monthly are now caught up in the failed talks over a new union contract, which broke down in June amid allegations from the ILA that ports were violating rules related to use of automation.



The White House has engaged senior officials including Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, Acting Secretary of Labor Julie Su, and Director of the National Economic Council Lael Brainard since late last week in an effort to bring the ILA and USMX back to the bargaining table to negotiate a deal quickly.



Late in the day on Monday, USMX put out a statement saying within the past 24 hours it had traded counter offers with the union, including an offer to increase wages by nearly 50% over six years, triple employer contributions to employee retirement plans, strengthen health care options, and retain the current contract language around automation and semi-automation.



The union had already said in statement issued at 11 a.m. ET on Monday that “the Ocean Carriers represented by USMX want to enjoy rich billion-dollar profits that they are making in 2024, while they offer ILA Longshore Workers an unacceptable wage package that we reject.” The statement added that the union saw the USMX as “intent on causing a strike at all ports from Maine to Texas beginning in almost 12 hours.”



The Biden administration finds itself in a delicate political moment, with the presidential election one month away and President Biden vowing he will not use existing labor law to force union workers back on the job, which is within his powers under the Taft-Hartley Act.



The Taft-Hartley Act, passed in 1947, was a revision of U.S. law governing labor relations and union activity that granted a U.S. president the power to suspend a strike for an 80-day “cooling off period” in cases where “national health or safety” are at risk.&nbsp;



The White House has reiterated its position several times in recent days that “We’ve never invoked Taft-Hartley to break a strike and are not considering doing so now.”



Cruise operations and military operations at ports will continue.

108041186-1727745894541-gettyimages-2175709455-port532972_nnwur8co

East and Gulf Coast ports strike, stranding billions in trade and threatening U.S. economy

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107078012-1655709503739-gettyimages-1234311678-sindeyev-notitle210729_npFPY-820x462.webp" alt="" class="wp-image-536800" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107078012-1655709503739-gettyimages-1234311678-sindeyev-notitle210729_npFPY-820x462.webp 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107078012-1655709503739-gettyimages-1234311678-sindeyev-notitle210729_npFPY-300x169.webp 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107078012-1655709503739-gettyimages-1234311678-sindeyev-notitle210729_npFPY-160x90.webp 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107078012-1655709503739-gettyimages-1234311678-sindeyev-notitle210729_npFPY-768x432.webp 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/107078012-1655709503739-gettyimages-1234311678-sindeyev-notitle210729_npFPY.webp 1480w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Bitcoin. Nurphoto | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BTC.CM=/">Bitcoin</a>&nbsp;and crypto stocks retreated on the final trading day of September, following a rally last week, but are still poised to post a positive month.



The flagship cryptocurrency was last lower by 3.5% at $63,612.63, after briefly reclaiming the $65,000 level last week, according to Coin Metrics. Crypto stocks such as&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/COIN/">Coinbase</a>&nbsp;fell 3% in premarket trading and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/MSTR/">MicroStrategy</a>&nbsp;slid 5%.



Investors are <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/30/ports-strike-truckers-rails-billions-in-cargo-shutdown.html">bracing for strikes at ports</a> up and down the East Coast and along the Gulf Coast after midnight Monday, which could shake the economy ahead of the holiday season. 



Analysts have also warned about overbought conditions as bitcoin last week climbed nearly 5% in the five days ending Sept. 27 – as net inflows into global crypto exchange traded products accelerated to their highest level since mid-July. In the same period, Coinbase and MicroStrategy gained 12% and 21%, respectively. On Friday both stocks jumped 6%.



The combined net buying volume of U.S. bitcoin ETFs last week (16,774 BTC) exceeded a typical one-month supply of newly mined bitcoin (13,500), according to Bitwise-owned ETC Group. This was largely due to the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/24/chinas-central-bank-chief-set-to-hold-press-conference-days-after-fed-rate-cut.html">policy reversal</a>&nbsp;by the People’s Bank of China, the firm said.



For the month, bitcoin is on pace to finish its strongest September ever with an 8% gain and its second positive September – historically the cryptocurrency’s weakest month – in a row.



Coinbase is poised for a 4% monthly gain but is down nearly 14% for the quarter. Some analysts&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/25/analysts-warn-coinbase-could-slump-after-six-day-rally-.html">see that downtrend continuing</a>&nbsp;in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy is up 33% for the month and almost 28% for the quarter.



The market is heading into a seasonally strong quarter for crypto and risk assets broadly.



Bitcoin’s narrative is often debated — whether it’s a store of value or a risk asset — but its correlation is currently closer to that of the S&amp;P 500 than to gold, and investors expect it to benefit from rate cuts, clarity following the U.S. presidential election and seasonal and favorable market conditions translating into greater flows into crypto ETFs.

107078012-1655709503739-gettyimages-1234311678-sindeyev-notitle210729_npFPY

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