<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107400835-1713107631482-gettyimages-89133867-win308_sub305_002-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-476713" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107400835-1713107631482-gettyimages-89133867-win308_sub305_002-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107400835-1713107631482-gettyimages-89133867-win308_sub305_002-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107400835-1713107631482-gettyimages-89133867-win308_sub305_002-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107400835-1713107631482-gettyimages-89133867-win308_sub305_002-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107400835-1713107631482-gettyimages-89133867-win308_sub305_002.jpeg 929w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Win-initiative/neleman | Stone | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



With about 100 million tracks available and over 600 million subscribers, helping listeners find the music they will love has become a navigational challenge for Spotify. It’s the promise of personalization and meaningful recommendations that will give the vast catalog more meaning, and that is central to Spotify’s mission.



The streaming audio giant’s suite of recommendation tools has grown over the years: Spotify Home feed,<a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__newsroom.spotify.com_2019-2D05-2D02_five-2Dways-2Dto-2Dmake-2Dyour-2Ddiscover-2Dweekly-2Dplaylists-2Deven-2Dmore-2Dpersonalized_&amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&amp;r=0CWepIbi9zbaptf4QjVSaQ&amp;m=h9I6Nob4JYekdULzm3jgGOyZdoRdqnNui4auLB7TtMlDKP_ZGUWB6PrjmpMYbufk&amp;s=0QBH1FDSLbahb2il0Si1F0IY6Roe1C9utj_AdXH9x-A&amp;e=" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"> </a>Discover Weekly<a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__newsroom.spotify.com_2019-2D05-2D02_five-2Dways-2Dto-2Dmake-2Dyour-2Ddiscover-2Dweekly-2Dplaylists-2Deven-2Dmore-2Dpersonalized_&amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&amp;r=0CWepIbi9zbaptf4QjVSaQ&amp;m=h9I6Nob4JYekdULzm3jgGOyZdoRdqnNui4auLB7TtMlDKP_ZGUWB6PrjmpMYbufk&amp;s=0QBH1FDSLbahb2il0Si1F0IY6Roe1C9utj_AdXH9x-A&amp;e=" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">,</a> Blend, Daylist, and<a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__newsroom.spotify.com_2021-2D03-2D31_introducing-2Dnew-2Dspotify-2Dmixes-2Dpersonalized-2Dplaylists-2Dfeaturing-2Dyour-2Dfavorite-2Dartists-2Dgenres-2Dand-2Ddecades_&amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;c=slrrB7dE8n7gBJbeO0g-IQ&amp;r=0CWepIbi9zbaptf4QjVSaQ&amp;m=h9I6Nob4JYekdULzm3jgGOyZdoRdqnNui4auLB7TtMlDKP_ZGUWB6PrjmpMYbufk&amp;s=T0MnheFfxWq86g36mOmmh_m-Wzgl35V9p7jnRNYwGtM&amp;e=" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"> </a>Made for You Mixes. And in recent years, there have been signs that it is working. According to data released by Spotify at its 2022 Investor Day, artist discoveries every month on Spotify had reached 22 billion, up from 10 billion in 2018, “and we’re nowhere near done,” the company stated at that time.



Over the past decade or more, Spotify has been investing in AI and, in particular, in machine learning. Its recently launched AI DJ may be its biggest bet yet that technology will allow subscribers to better personalize listening sessions and discover new music. The AI DJ mimics the vibe of radio by announcing the names of songs and lead-in to tracks, something aimed in part to help ease listeners into extending out of their comfort zones. An existing pain point for AI algorithms — which can be excellent at giving listeners what it knows they already like — is anticipating when you want to break out of that comfort zone. 



The AI DJ combines personalization technology, generative AI, and a dynamic AI voice, and listeners can tap the DJ button when they want to hear something new, and something less-directly-derived from their established likes. Behind the dulcet tones of an AI DJ there are people, tech experts and music experts, who aim to improve the recommendation capacity of Spotify’s tools. The company has hundreds of music editors and experts across the globe. A Spotify spokesperson said the generative AI tool allows the human experts to “scale their innate knowledge in ways never before possible.” &nbsp;



The data on a particular song or artist captures a few attributes: particular musical features, and which song or artist it has been typically paired with&nbsp;among the millions of listening sessions whose data the AI algorithm can access.&nbsp;Gathering information about the song is a fairly easy process, including release year, genre, and mood — from happy to danceable or melancholic. Various musical attributes, such as tempo, key, and instrumentation, are also identified. Combining this data associated with millions of listening sessions and other users’ preferences helps to generate new recommendations, and makes the leap possible from aggregated data to individual listener assumptions.



In its simplest formulation, “Users who liked Y also liked Z. We know you like Y, so you might like Z,” is how an AI finds matches. And Spotify says it’s working. “Since launching DJ, we’ve found that when DJ listeners hear commentary alongside personal music recommendations, they’re&nbsp;more willing to try something new (or listen to a song they may have otherwise skipped),” the spokesperson said.&nbsp;



If successful, it’s not just listeners that get relief from a pain point. A great discovery tool is as beneficial to the artists seeking to build connections with new fans.



Julie Knibbe, founder &amp; CEO of Music Tomorrow — which aims to help artists connect with more listeners by understanding how algorithms work and how to better work with them — says everyone is trying to figure out how to balance familiarity and novelty in a meaningful way, and everyone is leaning on AI algorithms to help make this possible. Be she says the balance between discovering new music and staying with established patterns is a central unresolved issue for all involved, from Spotify to listeners and the artists.



“Any AI is only good at what you tell them to do,” Knibbe said. “These recommender systems have been around for over a decade and they’ve become very good at predicting what you will like. What they can’t do is know what’s in your head, specifically when you want to venture out into a new musical terrain or category.”&nbsp;



Spotify’s Daylist is an attempt to use generative AI to take into account established tastes, but also the varying contexts that can shape and reshape a listeners’ tastes across the course of a day, and make new recommendations that fit various moods, activities and vibes. Knibbe says it’s possible that improvements like these continue, and the AI gets better at finding the formula for how much novelty a listener wants, but she added, “the assumption that people want to discover new music all the time is not true.”



Most people still return, fairly happily, to familiar musical terrain and listening patterns.&nbsp;



“You have various&nbsp;profiles of listeners, curators, experts … people put different demands on the AI,” Knibbe said. “Experts are more difficult to surprise, but they aren’t the majority of listeners, who tend to be more casual,” and whose Spotify usage, she says, often amounts to creating a “comfortable background” to daily life.



Technology optimists often speak in terms of an era of “abundance.” With 100 million songs available, but many listeners preferring the same 100 songs a million times, it’s easy to understand why a new balance is being sought. But Ben Ratliff, a music critic and author of “Every Song Ever: Twenty Ways to Listen in an Age of Musical Plenty,” says algorithms are less solution to this problem than a further entrenching of it.



“Spotify is good at catching onto popular sensibilities and creating a soundtrack for them,” Ratliff said. “Its Sadgirl Starter Pack playlist, for instance, has a great name and about a million and a half likes. Unfortunately, under the banner of a gift, the SSP simplifies the oceanic complexity of young-adult depression into a small collection of dependably ‘yearny’ music acts, and makes hard clichés of music and sensibility form more quickly.” 



Works of curation that are clearly made by actual people with actual preferences remain Ratliff’s preference.&nbsp;Even a good playlist, he says, might have been made without much intention and conscience, but just a developed sense of pattern recognition, “whether it’s patterns of obscurity or patterns of the broadly known,” he said.



Depending on the individual, AI may have equal chances of becoming either a utopian or dystopian solution within the 100-million track universe.&nbsp;Ratliff says most users should keep it more simple in their streaming music journeys. “As long as you realize that the app will never know you in the way you want to be known, and as long as you know what you’re looking for, or have some good prompts at the ready, you can find lots of great music on Spotify.”&nbsp;

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107352556-1703848030465-gettyimages-1423009563-china-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-475494" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107352556-1703848030465-gettyimages-1423009563-china-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107352556-1703848030465-gettyimages-1423009563-china-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107352556-1703848030465-gettyimages-1423009563-china-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107352556-1703848030465-gettyimages-1423009563-china-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107352556-1703848030465-gettyimages-1423009563-china.jpeg 929w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Flag of China on dark blue background Da-kuk | E+ | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



China will remain the largest growth engine for the world economy in spite of its slowdown, the Asian Development Bank said.



“China is obviously going to still be important for some time to come. They still account for nearly half of GDP in Asia Pacific,” ADB’s chief economist Albert Park said in a press conference for the bank’s Asian Development Outlook report.&nbsp;



“Although growth is moderating, and we are expecting it to continue moderating in the coming years… it’s likely to contribute the most growth of any economy in the world to global growth,” said Park.



ADB forecasts China to post annual GDP growth of 4.8% in 2024, lower than the government’s target of “around 5%.” China’s economy expanded 5.2% in 2023, matching the official target of around 5%.



Even with slower growth, ADB data estimated China will account for 46% of growth in developing Asia in 2024-2025.



China currently accounts for 18% and 48% of global and Asian GDP, respectively, based on purchasing power parities exchange rates, a metric used by the ADB, World Bank and International Monetary Fund.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-about-india"><a></a>What about India?</h2>



India’s stellar economic trajectory has led many to tout the country’s role as a technology and manufacturing powerhouse and an attractive alternative to China. The South Asian nation’s economy recently expanded at its fastest pace in six quarters, surpassing expectations with 8.4% growth in the October to December quarter of the current financial year 2023-24.



“India’s importance to growth in the region is increasing,” Park told CNBC via email. ADB expects the country’s growth to be the highest in the region, at 7% in 2024 and 7.2% in 2025. 



While India’s economy is undoubtedly a “bright spot,” it is still smaller than China’s, said Park. On the PPP exchange rate metric, the economist noted China’s economy is still about two and a half times that of India.&nbsp;



“So on that benchmark, it will take a long time, I think, for India to really drive global growth,” he added.



Additionally, growth in advanced economies is expected to slow this year, with ADB forecasting U.S. GDP growth to dip to 1.9% from last year’s 2.5%, and Japan’s to grow 0.6% compared to 1.9% in 2023.



The bank in its report also said it expects developing Asia’s growth this year to be slightly stronger than its December projections, as healthy domestic demand offsets the slowdown in China.&nbsp;&nbsp;



In spite of rising energy prices, inflation is also expected to moderate in Asia-Pacific from 3.3% in 2023 to 3.2% this year.

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China will remain the world’s No. 1 growth driver, says the Asian Development Bank

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/SMJADHBEX5KLZIUNYIQ6KAI6HA-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-475259" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/SMJADHBEX5KLZIUNYIQ6KAI6HA-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/SMJADHBEX5KLZIUNYIQ6KAI6HA-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/SMJADHBEX5KLZIUNYIQ6KAI6HA-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/SMJADHBEX5KLZIUNYIQ6KAI6HA-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/SMJADHBEX5KLZIUNYIQ6KAI6HA-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/SMJADHBEX5KLZIUNYIQ6KAI6HA-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Produce is seen at El Progreso Market in the Mount Pleasant neighborhood of Washington, D.C., U.S., August 19, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



The consumer price index accelerated at a faster than expected pace in March, pushing inflation higher and likely dashing hopes that Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates anytime soon.



The CPI, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the economy, rose 0.4% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 3.5%, or 0.3 percentage point higher than in February, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% gain and a 3.4% year-over-year level.



Excluding volatile food and energy components, core CPI also accelerated 0.4% on a monthly basis while rising 3.8% from a year ago, compared to respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%.



Stock market futures slumped following the report while Treasury yields spiked higher.



Shelter and energy costs drove the increase on the all-items index.



Energy rose 1.1% after increasing 2.3% in February, while shelter costs, which make up about one-third of the weighting in the CPI, were higher by 0.4% on the month and up 5.7% from a year ago. Expectations for shelter-related costs to decelerate through the year have been central to the Fed’s thesis that inflation will cool enough to allow for interest rate cuts.



Food prices increased just 0.1% on the month and were up 2.2% on a year-over-year basis. There were some big gains within the food category, however.



The measure for meat, fish, poultry and eggs climbed 0.9%, pushed by a 4.6% jump in egg prices. Butter fell 5% and cereal and bakery products declined by 0.9%. Food away from home increased 0.3%.



Elsewhere, used vehicle prices declined 1.1% and medical care services prices rose 0.6%.



The report comes with markets on edge and Fed officials expressing caution about the near-term direction for monetary policy. Central bank policymakers have repeatedly called for patience on cutting rates, saying they have not seen enough evidence that inflation is on a solid path back to their 2% annual goal. The March report likely confirmed worries that inflation is stickier than expected.



Markets had expected the Fed to start cutting interest rates in June with three reductions in total expected this year, but that shifted dramatically following the release. Traders in the fed funds futures market pushed expectations for the first cut out to September, according to CME Group calculations.



″“There’s not much you can point to that this is going to result in a shift away from the hawkish bent” from Fed officials, said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “June to me is definitely off the table.”



The Fed also expects services inflation to ease through the year, but that has shown to be stubborn as well. Excluding energy, the services index increased 0.5% in March and was at a 5.4% annual rate, inconsistent with the Fed’s target.



″This marks the third consecutive strong reading and means that the stalled disinflationary narrative can no longer be called a blip,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. “In fact, even if inflation were to cool next month to a more comfortable reading, there is likely sufficient caution within the Fed now to mean that a July cut may also be a stretch, by which point the US election will begin to intrude with Fed decision making.”



Later Wednesday, the Fed will release minutes from its March meeting, providing more insight into where officials stand on monetary policy.



Multiple Fed officials in recent days have expressed skepticism about lowering rates. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNBC that he expects just one cut this year, likely not coming until the fourth quarter. Governor Michelle Bowman said an increase may even be necessary if the data do not cooperate.

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107139885-1666645552719-abc1-820x462.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-475230" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107139885-1666645552719-abc1-820x462.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107139885-1666645552719-abc1-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107139885-1666645552719-abc1-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107139885-1666645552719-abc1-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107139885-1666645552719-abc1.jpg 929w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Shoppers are seen in a Kroger supermarket on October 14, 2022, in Atlanta, Georgia.  Elijah Nouvelage | AFP | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



A closely watched Labor Department report due Wednesday is expected to show that not much progress is being made in the battle to bring down inflation.



If so, that would be bad news for consumers, market participants and Federal Reserve officials, who are hoping price increases slow enough so that they can start gradually cutting interest rates later this year.



The consumer price index, which measures costs for a wide-ranging basket of goods and services across the $27.4 trillion U.S. economy, is expected to register increases of 0.3% both for the all-items measure as well as the core yardstick that excludes volatile food and energy.



On a 12-month basis that would put the inflation rates at 3.4% and 3.7%, respectively, a 0.2 percentage point increase in the headline rate from February, just a 0.1 percentage point decrease for the core rate, and both still a far cry from the central bank’s 2% target.



“We’re not headed there fast enough or convincing enough, and I think that’s what this report is going to show,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America.



The report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-progress-but-not-enough"><a></a>Progress, but not enough</h2>



North said he expects Fed officials to view the report pretty much the same way, backing up comments they’ve been making for weeks that they need more evidence that inflation is convincingly on its way back to 2% before rate cuts can happen.



“Moving convincingly toward 2% doesn’t just mean hitting 2% for one month. It means hitting 2% or less for months and months in a row,” North said. “We’re a long way from that, and that’s probably what’s going to show tomorrow as well.”



To be sure, inflation has come down dramatically from its peak above 9% in June 2022. The Fed enacted 11 interest rate hikes form March 2022 to July 2023 totaling 5.25 percentage points for its benchmark overnight borrowing rate known as the federal funds rate.



But progress has been slow in the past several months. In fact, headline CPI has barely budged since the central bank stopped hiking, though core, which policymakers consider a better barometer of longer-term trends, has fallen about a percentage point.



While the Fed watches the CPI and other indicators, it focuses most on the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures index, sometimes referred to as the PCE deflator. That showed headline inflation running at 2.5% and the core rate at 2.8% in February.



For their part, markets have grown nervous about the state of inflation and how it will affect rate policy. After scoring big gains to start the year, stocks have backed off over the past week or so, which have seen sharp swings as investors tried to make sense of the conflicting signals.



Earlier this year, traders in the fed funds futures market were pricing in the likelihood that the central bank would start reducing rates in March and continue for as many as seven cuts before the end of 2024. The latest pricing indicates that the cuts won’t start until at least June and not total more than three, assuming quarter-percentage point increments, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch calculations.



“I don’t see a whole lot here that is going to move things magically the way they want to go,” North said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>What to watch</h2>



There will be a few key areas to watch in Wednesday’s report.



Beyond the headline numbers, trends in items such as shelter, airfares and vehicle prices will be important. Those areas have been bellwethers during the current economic cycle, and moves either way could suggest longer-term trends.



Economists at Goldman Sachs expect outright declines across air travel-related items as well as vehicle sticker prices, and see smaller shelter cost increases, which make up about one-third of the CPI weighting. A New York Fed survey released Monday, however, showed a sharp uptick in expectations for rental costs over the next year, which is bad news for policymakers who frequently have cited decelerating housing costs as the cornerstone to their easing inflation thesis.



Similarly, the National Federation of Independent Business survey for March, released Tuesday, showed confidence among small businesses at its lowest level in more than 11 years, with owners citing inflation as their top concern.



“Inflation is cumulative, and that’s why prices still feel high,” North said. “People still can’t believe how high prices are.”



Gas prices also could play an important role in the CPI release after rising 3.8% in February. Though the gasoline index is relatively unchanged over the past two years, it’s still up more than 70% from April 2020 when the brief Covid-driven recession ended. Food is up about 23% during the same period.

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107384081-1709831185690-gettyimages-2058827167-powell_banking_402_030724-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-463959" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107384081-1709831185690-gettyimages-2058827167-powell_banking_402_030724-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107384081-1709831185690-gettyimages-2058827167-powell_banking_402_030724-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107384081-1709831185690-gettyimages-2058827167-powell_banking_402_030724-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107384081-1709831185690-gettyimages-2058827167-powell_banking_402_030724-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107384081-1709831185690-gettyimages-2058827167-powell_banking_402_030724-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107384081-1709831185690-gettyimages-2058827167-powell_banking_402_030724.jpeg 1600w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress,” in Dirksen Building on Thursday, March 7, 2024.
Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



The U.S. Federal Reserve is determined not to reduce interest rates too soon — and some economists say recent data has pushed a summer cut completely off the table.



Friday’s jobs report reiterated the seemingly unwavering strength of the U.S. labor market and suggested further need for Fed caution. All eyes will now be on Wednesday’s consumer price index, after February’s annual inflation rate of 3.2% came in slightly higher than expected.



It comes as a growing number of market participants have raised the possibility of no rate cuts at all this year, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari who said last week that no reductions were a possible scenario if inflation continued to move sideways.



George Lagarias, chief economist at&nbsp;Mazars, told CNBC on Monday that rate cuts in the summer were now looking much less likely.



“Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw less rate cuts and pushed more towards the end of the year,” he told “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.



“This is a strong economy. Make no mistake, it is backed by debt and somewhat by overburdened credit cards, but it is a strong economy. So the Fed will struggle to find the case to cut rates soon.”



Market pricing reflects the ongoing uncertainty, with the probability of a rate cut now under 50% for both June and July, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool — significantly lower than at the start of the month.



“The Fed has been punishing itself ever since 2021 when ‘team transitory’ ostensibly got it wrong. &#8230; What they feel is that they can’t get it wrong again, which means that they’re more likely to err on the side of caution,” Lagarias added.



Despite this, he said it remains “very likely” that there will be rate cuts this year.



“They do have some room to cut, but they don’t want to get it wrong. They do not want to be the Fed that cut rates as inflation kept beating expectations. So they want to see more data toward the right direction and they are willing to wait,” Lagarias added.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-no-rate-cuts"><a></a>No rate cuts?</h2>



Speculation that there could be no interest rate reductions this year has been growing, although economists remain divided.



Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said last month that he doesn’t expect any cuts as the U.S. economy is “simply not slowing down,” and top U.S. asset manager Vanguard has no rate reductions as its base case for the year.



Whereas former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson told CNBC last week he sees a 10%-15% chance of no cuts this year.



Other analysts and economists are still backing the Fed’s own signaling in March that it expects three quarter-percentage point cuts this year.



Based on current growth and inflation forecasts, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius told CNBC on Friday he would “expect some rate cuts based on what Chair Powell and other Fed officials have said.”



“The timing of that of course is going to depend on near-term data, on the reaction function from the Fed but under our forecast I would be quite surprised if we didn’t get rate cuts this year. Quite surprised.”

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