Why You Are Getting So Many Fake Job Offers By Text

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="768" height="402" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/AA1DsPom.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-612780" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/AA1DsPom.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/AA1DsPom-300x157.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/AA1DsPom-160x84.jpg 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Selim Korkutata | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Bitcoin rose for a third day in a broad relief rally after President Donald Trump softened his tone on China tariffs and ratcheted down his rhetoric against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.



The price of the flagship cryptocurrency was last higher by 2.4% at $93,660, according to Coin Metrics. Earlier, it rose as high as $94,499.86, its highest level since March 3. Bitcoin has now given back more than half of its losses since Inauguration Day and is hovering just under the flat line for the year.



“This recent surge primarily reflects a market seizing the opportunity to capitalize on a dip in an asset that consistently proves its value as a compelling option for portfolio diversification and hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty and U.S. dollar volatility,” Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX, told CNBC.



On Tuesday, exchange-traded funds tracking the price of bitcoin saw a spike in inflows as interest in the cryptocurrency’s potential as a hedge strengthened amid continued stock market turbulence and a diving dollar. Bitcoin ETFs logged $936.43 million in daily inflows, their biggest day since Jan. 17, according to data from SoSoValue.



Bitcoin’s rally this week has forced short sellers to buy bitcoin back from the market to close their positions, thereby pushing the price even higher. In the past 24 hours, bitcoin has seen more than $300 million in short liquidations across exchanges, according to CoinGlass.



Demand for spot bitcoin has been contracting on a monthly basis, although that contraction has slowed in recent days, taking downward pressure off the price, Julio Moreno, head of research at crypto data provider CryptoQuant, told CNBC. However, he warned, the demand growth indicators have a ways to go before getting to late 2024 levels, which is what bitcoin would need to sustain its rally and see new all-time highs.

AA1DsPom

Bitcoin heads toward $95,000, rising for a third day and turning positive on the year

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="536" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/34VAE6NZTJLMTNUVKTT6O3FWY4-820x536.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-529745" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/34VAE6NZTJLMTNUVKTT6O3FWY4-820x536.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/34VAE6NZTJLMTNUVKTT6O3FWY4-300x196.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/34VAE6NZTJLMTNUVKTT6O3FWY4-138x90.jpg 138w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/34VAE6NZTJLMTNUVKTT6O3FWY4-768x502.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/34VAE6NZTJLMTNUVKTT6O3FWY4-1536x1005.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/34VAE6NZTJLMTNUVKTT6O3FWY4-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Shoppers look for items as they shop at an outlet of retailer Checkers in Sandton City mall, in Sandton, South Africa, August 28, 2024. REUTERS/Lelethu Madikane</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, April 23 (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa&#8217;s annual inflation rate fell for the first time in five months in March to its lowest level since June 2020, due to a drop in fuel costs and softer price rises for tuition.



Headline consumer inflation eased to 2.7% year-on-year from 3.2% in February, below the 2.9% expected by economists polled by Reuters, and outside the South African Reserve Bank&#8217;s (SARB) 3% to 6% target range.



A breakdown by Statistics South Africa showed the fuel index was down 8.8% last month.



Education fees, which are surveyed once a year in March, increased 4.5%, slower than the previous year&#8217;s 6.4% rise.



Some analysts thought the latest inflation numbers gave the central bank scope to cut interest rates at its next monetary policy meeting in May.



&#8220;There is ample room for the (central bank) to cut rates further to support the economy, to soften the hit from the global trade war,&#8221; Elize Kruger, a South Africa-based independent economist,&nbsp;said.



The SARB left its key lending rate unchanged at its last meeting in March after three consecutive cuts, citing risks from U.S. President Donald Trump&#8217;stariffs and the country&#8217;s disputed national budget.



It stuck to that cautious tone in a biannual review of its monetary policy last week.



Elna Moolman at Standard Bank saw signs of weakness in the residential rental market in Wednesday&#8217;s release, which she said was helping keep inflationary pressures benign.



However, the SARB&#8217;s concerns around global tariffs and a weaker local currency meant further rate cuts may not necessarily happen soon, she said.



(Additional reporting by Bhargav Acharya; Editing by Alexander Winning and Rachna Uppal)

Shoppers look for items as they shop at an outlet of retailer Checkers

South African inflation falls to five-year low in March as fuel, education costs ease

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-1258656549-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-523855" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-1258656549-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-1258656549-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-1258656549-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-1258656549-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-1258656549-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-1258656549-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Wamkele Mene, secretary-general of African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), during a Bloomberg Television interview at the Bloomberg New Economy Gateway Africa event in Marrakesh, Morocco, on Tuesday, June 13, 2023. The event brings together leaders in the private and public sectors to discuss the world&#8217;s most pressing issues and evaluate potential solutions in the context of local and regional priorities. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



African Continental Free Trade Agreement Secretary General Wamkele Mene says African countries must unify trade policies in order to deal with the disruption caused by U.S. President Donald Trump’s global tariffs.



“The good news out of this crisis is that our heads of states understand that there is not a single market in Africa that will survive on its own,’’ Mene told CNBC Africa in an interview. ’’We are not going to be able to negotiate bilaterally successfully. I think that&#8217;s clear. We will have to leverage on our combined efforts, our combined market size, market share, and combined population size.’’



President Trump has slapped tariffs on almost every country in the world, complaining they have been taking advantage of the world’s largest economy’s openness for trade. Economists have however questioned the methodology used to arrive at the tariffs which saw the small mountain kingdom of Lesotho slapped with the highest tariff rate at 50 percent under Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariffs.



While most countries have sought to negotiate, China, the world’s second largest economy has retaliated with 125% tariffs on the U.S. after it jacked up the initial tariffs to 145%.



The tariffs on Africa have called into question the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) under which a number of African countries enjoyed duty free access to U.S. markets. The pact is due for renewal this year.



Mene said AGOA was practically dead anyway, given the sweeping nature of President Trump’s tariffs.



“I think if we look at the measures that the U.S. introduced, both the tariff and non-tariff measures, AGOA is no longer alive,’’ Mene said. “What we should always remember, though, is that it was a unilateral preference.’’



He said the disruption caused by the tariffs was going to hurt countries like South Africa and Nigeria, the continent’s largest economies as well as smaller ones like Lesotho, Madagascar, Angola and Kenya. But he suggests the continent should use the opportunity to diversify its markets and strengthen intra-African trade, which remains the lowest among global regions at under 20 percent.



He cited the example of Ethiopia which doubled its exports after being kicked out of AGOA by partnering with China.



‘’The benevolence of others is not going to get us anywhere. We&#8217;ve got to very, very quickly redouble our efforts to build this domestic market because we can&#8217;t rely on others.’’



To accelerate the implementation of the AfCFTA, Mene said African Ministers of Trade are looking at ways of simplifying the ‘’complicated method’’ used to reduce tariffs among member countries which was negotiated in 2017. ‘’It’s a very different world to today. So, how do we make sure that we have a liberalization modality that takes account for where we are, the reality of today?,’’ he said lamenting the $50 billion African countries expend annually to import grain when it has grain exporters.

Key Speakers at New Economy Gateway Africa Event

AfCFTA Secretary General Calls for Unified African Trade Policy as Trump Tariffs Hit

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107004870-16427966702022-01-21t201709z_969185203_rc2w3s99wb9o_rtrmadp_0_argentina-imf-mexico-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-420118" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107004870-16427966702022-01-21t201709z_969185203_rc2w3s99wb9o_rtrmadp_0_argentina-imf-mexico-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107004870-16427966702022-01-21t201709z_969185203_rc2w3s99wb9o_rtrmadp_0_argentina-imf-mexico-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107004870-16427966702022-01-21t201709z_969185203_rc2w3s99wb9o_rtrmadp_0_argentina-imf-mexico-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107004870-16427966702022-01-21t201709z_969185203_rc2w3s99wb9o_rtrmadp_0_argentina-imf-mexico-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/107004870-16427966702022-01-21t201709z_969185203_rc2w3s99wb9o_rtrmadp_0_argentina-imf-mexico.jpeg 929w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The new economic measures laid out by the U.K. government “will likely increase inequality”, according to a spokesperson from the International Monetary Fund.
Yuri Gripas | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for African economic growth by 0.3 percentage points, citing multiple shocks hitting the continent including U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs across the world.



While lauding resilience across the continent, the Washington-based lender now expects its 54 economies to expand by 3.9 percent this year, down from its October forecast of 4.2 percent, it said in a joint statement by its Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and Hervé Ndoba, the Central African Republic’s Minister of Finance and Budget who is Chair of the African Caucus.



‘’The strong policy actions that have been taken to bring down inflation, stabilize public debt, and reduce external imbalances risk being undone in the face of further shocks,’’ the statement said. &#8220;Risks to the outlook are high amid elevated uncertainty and there are significant differences across countries, with fragile and conflict affected states facing particularly acute challenges.’’



President Trump’s universal tariffs threaten recovering growth across Africa and access to the world’s largest economy through the African Growth and Opportunity Act which is due for renewal this year. Lesotho, derided by Trump as a country nobody has ever heard of, ended with the world’s largest rate at 50 percent.



The continent has struggled to respond, with some countries including Zimbabwe and South Africa saying they would not retaliate and seeking talks, while Kenya has said it is confident it will secure a deal on its own.



The joint statement said African countries will need to intensify domestic reform efforts in the face of the disruption, in order to promote fiscal sustainability while strengthening economic integration through the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA). Central banks should cut rates where appropriate to support economic growth, it added.



‘’At the same time, ambitious structural reforms will unlock growth and drive job creation,’’ it said. “The IMF will remain agile in adapting our toolkit, policy advice, and capacity development to respond to emerging challenges, including from more frequent shocks and transformational shifts from digitalization and AI.’’



The IMF said it remained supportive of initiatives like the G20 Common Framework and the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable on debt reduction to help countries battling high debt. World Bank figures show average African government debt to gross domestic product ratios remain high at around 60 percent.



The African Caucus, which is made up of African finance ministers and central bank governors, meets with fund management at its annual meetings while the African Consultative Group comprises the Fund Governors of a subset of 12 African countries who are members of the African Caucus and only meets at the Spring Meetings.

107004870-16427966702022-01-21t201709z_969185203_rc2w3s99wb9o_rtrmadp_0_argentina-imf-mexico

IMF Cuts 2025 African growth forecast as Trump tariffs disrupt trade

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="234" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/blog2099x600weo-ch1-fostering-core-government-bond-market-resiliencecimf-photopaige-taylor-white-820x234.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-612691" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/blog2099x600weo-ch1-fostering-core-government-bond-market-resiliencecimf-photopaige-taylor-white-820x234.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/blog2099x600weo-ch1-fostering-core-government-bond-market-resiliencecimf-photopaige-taylor-white-300x86.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/blog2099x600weo-ch1-fostering-core-government-bond-market-resiliencecimf-photopaige-taylor-white-160x46.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/blog2099x600weo-ch1-fostering-core-government-bond-market-resiliencecimf-photopaige-taylor-white-768x220.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/blog2099x600weo-ch1-fostering-core-government-bond-market-resiliencecimf-photopaige-taylor-white-1536x439.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/blog2099x600weo-ch1-fostering-core-government-bond-market-resiliencecimf-photopaige-taylor-white-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Credit: IMF Photo/Paige Taylor White</figcaption></figure>



The global economic system under which most countries have operated for the last 80 years is being reset, ushering the world into a new era. Existing rules are challenged while new ones are yet to emerge. Since late January, a flurry of tariff announcements by the United States, which started with Canada, China, Mexico and critical sectors, culminated with near universal levies on April 2. The US effective tariff rate surged past levels reached during the Great Depression while counter-responses from major trading partners significantly pushed up the global rate.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2025/04/22/the-global-economy-enters-a-new-era?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><img decoding="async" src="https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/fancy_images/USIMF/2025/04/11459120/weo-chart-1_original.png" alt="two charts showing effective average tariff rates in the United States from 1825-2025"/></a></figure>



The resulting epistemic uncertainty and policy unpredictability is a major driver of the economic outlook. If sustained, this abrupt increase in tariffs and attendant uncertainty will significantly slow global growth. Reflecting the complexity and fluidity of the moment, our report presents a range of forecasts for the global economy.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2025/04/22/the-global-economy-enters-a-new-era?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><img decoding="async" src="https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/fancy_images/USIMF/2025/04/11459126/weo-chart-2_original.png" alt="bar chart showing real GDP growth in three different scenarios"/></a></figure>



<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025?cid=bl-com-SM2025-WEOEA2025001&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">Our World Economic Outlook</a>’s&nbsp;reference forecast&nbsp;includes tariff announcements between February 1 and April 4 by the US and countermeasures by other countries. This reduces our global growth forecast to 2.8 percent and 3 percent this year and next, a cumulative downgrade of about 0.8 percentage point relative to our January 2025 WEO update. We also present a global forecast excluding the April tariffs (pre-April 2 forecast). Under this alternative path, global growth would have seen only a modest cumulative downgrade of 0.2 percentage point, to 3.2 percent for 2025 and 2026. Finally, we include a model-based forecast incorporating announcements made after April 4. Over that period, the United States temporarily halted most tariffs while raising those on China to prohibitive levels. This pause, even if extended indefinitely, does not materially change the global outlook compared to the reference forecast. This is because the overall effective tariff rate of the United States and China remains elevated even if some initially highly tariffed countries will now benefit, while policy-induced uncertainty has not declined.



Despite the slowdown, global growth remains well above recession levels. Global inflation is revised up by about 0.1 percentage point for each year, yet the disinflation momentum continues. Global trade was quite resilient until now, partly because businesses were able to re-route trade flows when needed. This may become more difficult this time around. We project that global trade growth will dip more than output, to 1.7 percent in 2025—a significant downward revision since our January 2025 WEO Update.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2025/04/22/the-global-economy-enters-a-new-era?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><img decoding="async" src="https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/fancy_images/USIMF/2025/04/11459129/weo-chart-3_original.png" alt="two charts showing global growth and inflation forecast change from January 2025"/></a></figure>



However, the global estimate masks substantial variation across countries. Tariffs constitute a negative supply shock for the implementing jurisdiction, as resources are reallocated towards the production of less-competitive items with a resulting loss of aggregate productivity and higher production prices. In the medium term, we can expect tariffs to decrease competition and innovation and increase rent-seeking, further weighing on the outlook.



In the United States, demand was already softening before the recent policy announcements, reflecting greater policy uncertainty. Under our April 2 reference forecast, we have lowered our US growth estimate for this year to 1.8 percent. That’s 0.9 percentage point lower than January, and tariffs account for 0.4 percentage point of that reduction. We also raised our US inflation forecast by about 1 percentage point, up from 2 percent.



For trading partners, tariffs are mostly a negative demand shock, driving foreign customers away from their products, even if some countries can benefit from the trade diversion. Consistent with this deflationary impulse, we have lowered our China growth forecast for this year to 4 percent, a 0.6 percentage point reduction, and inflation&nbsp;is&nbsp;revised down by about 0.8 percentage point.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2025/04/22/the-global-economy-enters-a-new-era?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><img decoding="async" src="https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/fancy_images/USIMF/2025/04/11459145/weo-chart-4_original.png" alt="two charts showing tariffs effects on forecast changes in growth and core inflation for US and China"/></a></figure>



Growth in the euro area, which is subject to relatively lower effective tariffs, is revised down by 0.2 percentage point, to 0.8 percent. Both in the euro area and China, stronger fiscal stimulus will provide some support this year and next. Many emerging market economies could face significant slowdowns depending on where tariffs settle. We have lowered our growth forecast for the group by 0.5 percentage point, to 3.7 percent.



Dense global supply chains can magnify the effects of tariffs and uncertainty. Most traded goods are intermediate inputs that cross borders multiple times before being turned into final products. Disruptions can propagate up and down the global input-output network with potentially large multiplier effects, as we saw during the pandemic. Companies facing uncertain market access will likely pause in the near term, reduce investment and cut spending. Likewise, financial institutions will reassess borrowers’ exposure. The increased uncertainty and tightening of financial conditions could well dominate the short term, weighing on economic activity, as reflected in the sharp decline in oil prices.



The effect of tariffs on exchange rates is complex. The United States, as the tariffing country, may see its currency appreciate as in previous episodes. However, greater policy uncertainty, dimmer US growth prospects, and an adjustment in the global demand for dollar assets—that has so far been orderly—can weigh down on the dollar, as we saw since the tariff announcements. In the medium term, the dollar may depreciate in real terms if the tariffs translate into lower productivity in the US tradable goods sector, relative to its trading partners.



Risks to the global economy have increased, and worsening trade tensions could further depress growth. Financial conditions could tighten further as markets react negatively to the diminished growth prospects and increased uncertainty. While banks remain well capitalized overall, financial markets may face more severe tests.



Growth prospects could, however, immediately improve if countries ease their current trade policy stance and forge new trade agreements. Addressing domestic imbalances can, over a period of years, offset economic risks and raise global output while contributing significantly to closing external imbalances.&nbsp; For Europe, this means spending more on infrastructure to accelerate productivity growth. It also means boosting&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/09/12/trade-balances-in-china-and-the-us-are-largely-driven-by-domestic-macro-forces?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">support for domestic demand</a>&nbsp;in China, and stepping up fiscal consolidation in the United States.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2025/04/22/the-global-economy-enters-a-new-era?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><img decoding="async" src="https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/fancy_images/USIMF/2025/04/11459182/weo-chart-5_original.png" alt="chart showing current account balance scenarios for US and China "/></a></figure>



Our policy recommendations call for prudence and improved collaboration. The first priority should be to restore trade policy stability and forge mutually beneficial arrangements. The global economy needs a clear and predictable trading system addressing longstanding gaps in international trading rules, including the pervasive use of non-tariff barriers or other trade-distorting measures. This will require improved cooperation.



Monetary policy will also need to remain agile. Some countries may confront steeper trade-offs between inflation and output. In others, inflation expectations may become less-well anchored, with a new inflation shock following closely after the prior one. Countries that encounter resurgent price pressures will require forceful monetary tightening. For others, the negative demand shock will warrant lower policy rates. Monetary policy credibility will be important in all cases, and central bank independence remains a cornerstone.



The increased external volatility from tariff adjustments and a possibly prolonged risk-off environment, may be difficult to navigate for emerging markets. Our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/IPF-Integrated-Policy-Framework?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">Integrated Policy Framework</a>&nbsp;emphasizes that it is important to let currencies adjust when driven by fundamental forces, as is the case now, and spells out the specific conditions where it is advisable for countries to intervene.



Fiscal authorities face&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/03/28/the-fiscal-and-financial-risks-of-a-high-debt-slow-growth-world?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">starker trade-offs</a>&nbsp;with high debt, low growth and rising financial costs. Most countries still have too little fiscal space and need to implement gradual and credible consolidation plans, while some of the poorest countries, also hit with reduced official aid, could experience debt distress.



New spending needs are further weighing on fiscal fragilities. Calls for support will increase for those at risk of severe dislocation from the shocks. Such support should remain narrowly targeted and incorporate automatic sunset clauses. The experience of the last four years suggests that it is easier to open the tap of fiscal support than to close it.



Some countries, especially in Europe, face new and permanent increases in defense-related spending. How should these be financed? For countries with sufficient fiscal space, only the temporary part of the additional spending—that is, temporary support to help adapt to the new environment or the initial bulge in spending to rebuild defense capabilities—should be financed by debt. For all other countries, new spending needs should be offset by spending cuts elsewhere or new revenues.



We should not lose sight of the need for stronger growth. Governments should continue to engage in fiscal and structural reforms that help mobilize private resources and reduce resource misallocation. They should also invest in the digital infrastructure and training necessary to benefit from new technologies such as artificial intelligence.



Finally, we should ask ourselves why our global system warrants remapping—and recognize that decades of deepening trade ties fostered rapid but uneven economic growth. In many advanced economies, there is an acute perception that globalization unfairly displaced many domestic manufacturing jobs. There is some merit to these grievances, even if the share of manufacturing employment in advanced economies has been in a secular decline in countries running trade surpluses, like Germany, or deficits, like the United States.



The deeper force behind this decline is technological progress and automation, not globalization: in both countries the output share of manufacturing has remained stable. Both forces are ultimately beneficial but can be very disruptive to individuals and communities. It is a collective responsibility to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/04/17/sp041725-spring-meetings-2025-curtain-raiser?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">ensure the right balance</a>&nbsp;between the pace of progress or globalization and addressing the associated dislocations.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2025/04/22/the-global-economy-enters-a-new-era?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><img decoding="async" src="https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/fancy_images/USIMF/2025/04/11459185/weo-chart-6_original.png" alt="chart showing output and employment share for Germany and United States"/></a></figure>



This requires that policymakers think well beyond the reductive lens of compensating transfers between ”winners” and ”losers,” be it of technological revolutions or globalization. In this, unfortunately not enough has been done, pushing many to embrace a zero-sum worldview whereby the gains of some only come at the expense of others. Instead, it is important to better understand these root causes so that we can build an improved trading system that delivers more opportunities. This objective is enshrined in our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/aa/?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">Articles of Agreement</a>, which ask us “to facilitate the expansion and balanced growth of international trade, and to contribute thereby to the promotion and maintenance of high levels of employment and real income.”



Global integration is not an objective in and of itself. It is a means to an end, important insofar as it supports improved living standards for all.



—This blog is based on Chapter 1 of the April 2025 World Economic Outlook, “<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025?cid=bl-com-SM2025-WEOEA2025001&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">Policy Uncertainty Tests Global Resilience.</a>”

blog2099x600weo-ch1-fostering-core-government-bond-market-resiliencecimf-photopaige-taylor-white

The Global Economy Enters a New Era

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="357" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400669" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1-300x175.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance</figcaption></figure>



April 23 (Reuters) &#8211; The following company announcements, scheduled economic indicators, debt and currency market moves and political events may affect African markets on Wednesday.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-events">EVENTS:</h2>



Kenya&#8217;s President William Ruto makes a state visit to Beijing where he is set to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-global-markets">GLOBAL MARKETS</h2>



Stock markets were enjoying a much-needed relief rally in Asia on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said he had no plans to fire the head of the Federal Reserve, and hinted at lower tariffs for China.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-world-oil-prices">WORLD OIL PRICES</h2>



Oil prices rose on Wednesday, extending the prior day&#8217;s gains, as investors weighed a fresh round of U.S. sanctions on Iran, a drop in U.S. crude stocks and a softer tone from President Donald Trump toward the Federal Reserve.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-south-africa-markets">SOUTH AFRICA MARKETS</h2>



The South African rand jumped on Tuesday as gold prices rose after U.S. President Donald Trump criticised Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, rattling markets and boosting demand for the safe-haven asset.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-kenya-markets">KENYA MARKETS</h2>



Kenya&#8217;s shilling was broadly stable against the dollar on Tuesday with foreign exchange supply and demand evenly matched, traders said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-ethiopia-aid">ETHIOPIA AID</h2>



The World Food Programme suspended malnutrition treatment for 650,000 malnourished women and children in Ethiopia this week due to severe funding shortages, the U.N. agency said, with millions more at risk of losing access to aid.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-ghana-politics">GHANA POLITICS</h2>



Ghana&#8217;s President John Dramani Mahama suspended Chief Justice Gertrude Torkornoo with immediate effect and initiated an investigation in response to three petitions filed against her, a statement said.



((Compiled by Nairobi Newsroom))

World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance

African Markets – Factors to watch on April 23

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/GettyImages-1251784454-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-564339" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/GettyImages-1251784454-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/GettyImages-1251784454-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/GettyImages-1251784454-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/GettyImages-1251784454-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/GettyImages-1251784454-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/GettyImages-1251784454-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The World Bank Group headquarters during the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank in Washington, DC, US, on Thursday, April 13, 2023. The IMF trimmed its global-growth projections, warning of high uncertainty and risks as financial-sector stress adds to pressures emanating from tighter monetary policy. Photographer: Samuel Corum/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



WASHINGTON, April 22 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Given big cuts in development aid by Europe and the United States, think tanks and other groups are urging the World Bank to reduce the equity-to-lending ratio of its main lending arm to free up billions in additional lending capacity.



Reducing the equity to lending ratio of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development to 17% from 18% would allow the bank to boost its lending capacity by $30 billion to $40 billion without burdening taxpayers or shareholders, or jeopardizing its capital reserves, said Eric Pelofsky, vice president of the Rockefeller Foundation.



He said a large portion of these new resources could be used to provide loans to help governments rapidly address actual or anticipated budget gaps and shore up health-care networks, water and sanitation systems, or other critical public systems impacted by foreign aid cuts.



The bank could also offer short-term, low-interest loans to non-governmental organizations facing program cancellations, layoffs, and even bankruptcy that would help them bridge to new long-term funding models, Pelofsky said.



The World Bank voted last year to change its internal lending guidelines and lower its equity-to-lending ratio by 1 percentage point as part of reforms recommended by an independent commission for the Group of 20 major economies. It took a similar step in 2023, dropping the ratio to 19% from 20%.



Since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to office in January for a second term, his administration has cut billions of dollars in foreign assistance in a review that aimed to ensure programs align with his &#8220;America First&#8221; foreign policy. European governments have also cut their foreign aid budgets.



&#8220;Inaction will have concrete consequences,&#8221; Pelofsky said, citing studies which say U.S. foreign aid cuts could put millions of lives at risk.



Jubilee USA Network, a religious development group, said it backs the push, and it urged the World Bank to act quickly.



&#8220;The World Bank can and should make this decision as soon as possible,&#8221; said Eric LeCompte, the group&#8217;s executive director and a United Nations adviser. &#8220;With the significant cuts we&#8217;ve seen from the U.S. and Europe on development aid, this action by the World Bank can fill this aid gap.&#8221;



(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Leslie Adler)

Spring Meetings Of The International Monetary Fund And World Bank

World Bank urged to reduce equity-to-loan ratio to free up funds for poor countries

How Takeda’s CEO transformed the company into a global pharma powerhouse

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108134615-1745320819888-gettyimages-2209959602-UK_INFLATION-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-612440" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108134615-1745320819888-gettyimages-2209959602-UK_INFLATION-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108134615-1745320819888-gettyimages-2209959602-UK_INFLATION-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108134615-1745320819888-gettyimages-2209959602-UK_INFLATION-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108134615-1745320819888-gettyimages-2209959602-UK_INFLATION-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108134615-1745320819888-gettyimages-2209959602-UK_INFLATION-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108134615-1745320819888-gettyimages-2209959602-UK_INFLATION.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Shoppers pass along the high street in Maidstone, UK, on Wednesday, April 16, 2025. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



The International Monetary Fund downgraded the U.K.’s 2025 growth forecast in its latest economic outlook released on Tuesday, warning that U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, higher borrowing costs and increased energy prices will dent output this year.



In its reference forecast, the IMF predicted the British economy will grow 1.1%, down by 0.5 percentage points from its previous forecast issued in January. The fund now also expects the U.K. to grow by 1.4% in 2026, 0.1 percentage points lower than its previous estimate.



The figures were part of the IMF’s reference outlook, which does not include the tariff announcements made after April 4,&nbsp;such as the 90-day pause on the higher duties that Trump initially announced.



The downgrade for 2025 “reflects a smaller carryover from 2024, the impact of recent tariff announcements, an increase in gilt yields, and weaker private consumption amid higher inflation as a result of regulated prices and energy costs,” the IMF wrote in its World Economic Outlook report.



The downgrade pours more cold water on the U.K.’s Labour government which has made a main priority of growing the economy and is already contending with the uncertainty posed by trade tariffs from one of its largest trading partners, the U.S.



Trump announced a baseline 10% tariff on U.K. imports to the U.S. on April 2, despite Britain and the U.S. having almost balanced trade when it comes to the exchange of goods.



While the U.K. is hopeful it can strike a trade deal with the U.S., the White House leader’s mercurial stance on trade and tariffs has put financial institutions on edge.



The latest IMF downgrade for Britain echoes a similar downturn in domestic forecasts. In February, the Bank of England halved the U.K.’s growth projection for 2025 from 1.5% to 0.75%, warning of an uncertain global economic outlook and a sharp uptick in inflation later this year on the back of higher energy and water bills.



The U.K.’s Office for Budget Responsibility in March also halved its growth forecast for the U.K., slashing its outlook from 2% to 1% growth in 2025.



Despite the recent downgrades, the U.K. economy has shown some signs of life recently. The latest monthly growth data released earlier in April showed the economy grew by a larger-than-expected 0.5% month-on-month in February, from zero growth in January. National inflation, meanwhile, cooled to a lower-than-expected 2.6% in March.



The Bank of England appears sanguine on interest rate cuts as it looks to balance boosting growth with its predicted uptick in the inflation rate. Economists widely expect the BOE to cut its key interest rate from 4.5% to 4.25% at its next monetary policy meeting in May.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-bright-spots-in-the-euro-zone"><a></a>Bright spots in the euro zone</h2>



Looking at the U.K.’s continental neighbors in the euro zone, the IMF predicted a slight decline in 2025 output, forecasting that growth in the euro area’s GDP will hit 0.8% in 2025, before picking up modestly to 1.2% in 2026.



“Rising uncertainty and tariffs are key drivers of the subdued growth in 2025,” the fund said. It noted that offsetting forces that support the modest uptick in 2026 include stronger consumption on the back of rising real wages, along with a projected fiscal easing in Germany following major changes to its fiscal rule, known as the “debt brake.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/108086018-1736840423739-gettyimages-1090698142-amf06159.jpeg?v=1736840447&amp;w=1858&amp;h=1045&amp;vtcrop=y" alt="Spain, holiday homes, tax"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Spain, holiday homes, tax Westend61 | Westend61 | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



The IMF singled out Spain as a bright spot in the euro zone, stating its growth momentum “contrasts with the sluggish dynamics elsewhere,” with the Mediterranean nation expected to expand its economy by 2.5% this year following an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from the forecast made in January.



“This reflects a large carryover from better-than-expected outturns in 2024 and reconstruction activity following floods,” the IMF said.



Trump’s tariffs cast a shadow over the wider EU, however. The U.S. president initially imposed a 20% “reciprocal” tariff on all goods coming from the European Union but paused the measures for 90 days until early July, lowering the duty to 10% until that time.



As it looks to sign its own trade deal with the States in the interim, the EU paused its retaliatory duty targeting 21 billion euros ($24.1 billion) worth of U.S. goods “to allow time and space for EU-U.S. negotiations,” the European Commission said.

108134615-1745320819888-gettyimages-2209959602-UK_INFLATION

IMF slashes UK’s growth forecast, points to U.S. tariffs and borrowing costs

Why Public Schools Are Going Broke In The U.S.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="5000" height="3483" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/XFBSMRNLQVND3AANHME4FQBHPQ.avif" alt="" class="wp-image-612391"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A severely malnourished child drinks from a bottle, at a camp for internally displaced people in Afdera town, Afar region, Ethiopia, February 23, 2022. REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



GENEVA, April 22 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The World Food Programme suspended malnutrition treatment for 650,000 malnourished women and children in Ethiopia this week due to severe funding shortages, the U.N. agency said, with millions more at risk of losing access to aid.



WFP gets financing from 15-20 donors including the United States but many of them have cut funding this year, said Zlatan Milisic, WFP Country Director in Ethiopia. The agency has received exemptions from U.S. President Donald Trump&#8217;s aid freeze that has disrupted humanitarian work around the world, he added, but little for 2025 so far.



More than 10 million people in Ethiopia are gravely short of food, including 3 million displaced by conflict and extreme weather conditions as well as refugees from war-torn neighbouring Sudan, according to WFP.



Milisic said WFP had already reduced rations in recent months but that its operations were now at &#8220;breaking point&#8221; due to severe underfunding, forcing more drastic measures.



&#8220;We&#8217;ve been left no choice but to this week suspend treatment for 650,000 malnourished women and children — simply because we&#8217;ve run out of commodities and funding,&#8221; he told a Geneva press briefing by video from Addis Ababa.



A&nbsp;WFP&nbsp;spokesperson later added that those cut off were in various locations including the northern regions of Tigray and Afar, and that the U.N. agency is actively seeking funding to purchase more supplies to resume treatments.



Around 3.6 million people could lose access to assistance, including some being treated for malnutrition, if more funding is not received by June, Milisic added.



&#8220;I would hope that we will get the resources and put in place measures to really do our best to assist them. But if they don&#8217;t receive assistance, we will have serious consequences.&#8221;



Ethiopia&#8217;s food crisis has worsened in recent years as a result of a 2020-22 civil war in Tigray. The country also faced the Horn of Africa&#8217;s worst drought in decades in 2022.



WFP previously warned of a return of drought conditions to the region this year.



(Reporting by Emma Farge; editing by Mark Heinrich)

XFBSMRNLQVND3AANHME4FQBHPQ

Malnutrition treatments halted in Ethiopia due to underfunding, WFP says

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108133583-17449153292025-04-17t183309z_182229855_rc2uzdaji827_rtrmadp_0_usa-italy-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-612340" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108133583-17449153292025-04-17t183309z_182229855_rc2uzdaji827_rtrmadp_0_usa-italy-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108133583-17449153292025-04-17t183309z_182229855_rc2uzdaji827_rtrmadp_0_usa-italy-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108133583-17449153292025-04-17t183309z_182229855_rc2uzdaji827_rtrmadp_0_usa-italy-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108133583-17449153292025-04-17t183309z_182229855_rc2uzdaji827_rtrmadp_0_usa-italy-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108133583-17449153292025-04-17t183309z_182229855_rc2uzdaji827_rtrmadp_0_usa-italy-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108133583-17449153292025-04-17t183309z_182229855_rc2uzdaji827_rtrmadp_0_usa-italy.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">U.S. President Donald Trump speaks as he meets with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (not pictured) in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 17, 2025. Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



Yesterday’s edition of this newsletter cautioned that U.S. President Donald Trump’s desire to intervene in the Federal Reserve, as he expressed to reporters on Friday, could result in upheaval in the markets. That didn’t happen because markets were closed for the Good Friday holiday.



On Monday, trading resumed. So have Trump’s attacks on the central bank — and, more pointedly, on Fed Chair Powell, describing him as “Mr. Too Late” and “a major loser” for not cutting interest rates. Trump appointed Powell to the Federal Reserve’s highest seat in his first presidential term during 2017.



With no market closure to shield shares from Trump’s threats, investors unloaded their stocks. All major U.S. indexes fell, weighed down by steep declines in the “Magnificent Seven” group of shares. The U.S. dollar weakened to a three-year low while gold prices hit a new high, suggesting, in combination, that global investors are losing confidence in the U.S. economy and reallocating their capital to safer assets shielded from Trump.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-you-need-to-know-today"><a></a>What you need to know today</h2>



Trump escalates attacks on Powell U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday renewed and escalated his attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. ″‘Preemptive Cuts’ in Interest Rates are being called for by many,” Trump said on Truth Social. “There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW,” Trump wrote, referring to Powell. On Friday, Trump also called for Powell to cut rates.



Stocks and U.S. dollar fall as gold hits high Stocks in the U.S. fell Monday. The S&amp;P 500 lost 2.36%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 2.48% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.55%. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index fell as low as 97.92 on Monday, the lowest level since March 2022, according to FactSet. Gold prices jumped to $3,452.30 per ounce, a fresh record. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Tuesday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed nearly 0.5% but Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined roughly 0.2%. The Bank of Japan will likely pause rate hikes in its May meeting, said Moody’s Analytics.



Shares of Tesla drop before earnings Tesla shares fell almost 6% on Monday, a day ahead of its first-quarter earnings report. The stock is now down 44% for the year after wrapping up their worst quarter since 2022 in March. In the online forum that Tesla solicits investor inquiries before its earnings calls, one investor, referring to CEO Elon Musk, asked, “What steps has the board of directors taken to mitigate the brand damage caused by Elon’s political activities?”



Vance and Modi optimistic on deal India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi met U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who was in India for a mostly personal trip, in the nation’s capital on Monday. A statement from Modi’s office said the two leaders “welcomed the significant progress in the negotiations for a mutually beneficial India-U.S. Bilateral Trade Agreement.” On Monday, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said both countries have “finalized the terms of reference to lay down a roadmap for the negotiations on reciprocal trade.”



Nomura to buy parts of Macquarie Japanese investment bank and brokerage group Nomura said Tuesday it will buy the U.S. and European public asset management businesses of Macquarie, an Australian investment banking company, for $1.8 billion. The all-cash deal is expected to close by the end of this year, subject to regulatory approvals.



[PRO] Markets could have ‘severe’ reaction to Trump Stocks and bonds would likely have a “severe reaction” and sell off sharply if Trump makes a move to get rid of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Evercore ISI’s vice chairman, Krishna Guha, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Monday. While Powell has said he doesn’t believe the president can legally remove the Fed Chair, Guha highlighted one way that Trump can pressure Powell without firing him.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-and-finally"><a></a>And finally&#8230;</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/108131827-1744683718571-gettyimages-2203962201-baglietto-notitle250310_np76O.jpeg?v=1745301518&amp;w=1858&amp;h=1045&amp;vtcrop=y" alt="U.S. one hundred dollar bills."/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



As the dollar falters, the world’s central banks tread a tightrope — devalue their currency or not



Uncertainty about U.S. policymaking has led to a flight from the greenback and Treasurys in recent weeks, with the dollar index weakening more than 9% so far this year. The drop in the U.S. dollar has led other currencies to appreciate against it, especially safe havens such as the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and the euro.



While a stronger local currency might help tame inflation through cheaper imports, it complicates export competitiveness particularly under renewed U.S. tariffs, said Thomas Rupf, VP Bank’s co-head for Singapore and Asia chief investment officer.



Currency devaluation is likely to be more of an active consideration across emerging markets, particularly in Asia, said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe. However, those countries and Asian central banks will need to tread a fine line to avoid capital flight and other risks.

108133583-17449153292025-04-17t183309z_182229855_rc2uzdaji827_rtrmadp_0_usa-italy

Investors grow wary of U.S. assets as Trump intensifies attacks on Powell

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IQMT7SFA2RNQLAQHUEOA2VEMMQ-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-423556" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IQMT7SFA2RNQLAQHUEOA2VEMMQ-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IQMT7SFA2RNQLAQHUEOA2VEMMQ-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IQMT7SFA2RNQLAQHUEOA2VEMMQ-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IQMT7SFA2RNQLAQHUEOA2VEMMQ-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IQMT7SFA2RNQLAQHUEOA2VEMMQ-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IQMT7SFA2RNQLAQHUEOA2VEMMQ-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Illustration photo shows a two-rand coin above a South African flag April 12, 2017. REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, April 22 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The South African rand firmed early on Tuesday, ahead of the release of a key economic indicator by the country&#8217;s central bank.



At 0636 GMT the rand traded at 18.70 against the dollar, roughly 0.3% stronger than its previous close on Monday.



The central bank will publish its composite leading business cycle indicator around 0700 GMT, providing data that includes vehicle sales, business confidence and money supply in Africa&#8217;s most industrialised nation.



The risk-sensitive rand has endured bouts of volatility, hurt by political disputes between the two biggest parties in the coalition government &#8211; the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) &#8211; over a proposed increase to value-added tax on May 1.



The DA and other smaller parties have publicly rejected the proposal and filed a court case challenging the legality of the budget process. The case will be heard at on Tuesday.



South Africa&#8217;s benchmark 2030 government bond was weaker in early deals, with the yield up 4.5 basis points at 9.215%.



(Reporting by Sfundo Parakozov; Editing by Bhargav Acharya and David Goodman)

Illustration photo of South African rand

South African rand firms ahead of economic data

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="357" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400669" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1-300x175.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance</figcaption></figure>



April 22 (Reuters) &#8211; The following company announcements, scheduled economic indicators, debt and currency market moves and political events may affect African markets on Tuesday.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-events">EVENTS:</h2>



Kenya&#8217;s President William Ruto will meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping during a state visit to Beijing.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-global-markets">GLOBAL MARKETS</h2>



Asian stock markets fought to hold their footing on Tuesday after a furious flight from U.S. assets undermined Wall Street and the dollar, while concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve piled fresh pressure on Treasuries.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-world-oil-prices">WORLD OIL PRICES</h2>



Oil prices climbed in early trade on Tuesday as investors took advantage of the previous day&#8217;s losses to cover short positions, although concerns persisted over economic headwinds from tariffs and U.S. monetary policy that could dampen fuel demand.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-south-sudan-security">SOUTH SUDAN SECURITY</h2>



South Sudan&#8217;s army said it had recaptured a key town in Upper Nile state that it lost to an ethnic Nuer militia in March in clashes which led to the arrest of First Vice President Riek Machar and a spiralling political crisis.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-nigeria-violence">NIGERIA VIOLENCE</h2>



The Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) has claimed responsibility for a series of deadly attacks targeting Nigerian security forces as well as Christian civilians in Nigeria’s northeastern regions earlier this month.



((Compiled by Nairobi Newsroom))

African Markets – Factors to watch on April 22

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="768" height="402" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/AA1Dm0ee.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-612268" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/AA1Dm0ee.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/AA1Dm0ee-300x157.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/AA1Dm0ee-160x84.jpg 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



The dollar has been sliding and the ripple effect on other currencies has brought a mix of relief and headache to central banks around the world.



Uncertainty about U.S. policymaking has led to a flight out of the U.S. dollar and Treasurys in recent weeks, with the dollar index weakening more than 9% so far this year. Market watchers see further declines.&nbsp;



According to Bank of America’s most recent Global Fund Manager Survey, a net 61% of participants anticipate a decline in the dollar’s value over the next 12 months — the most pessimistic outlook of major investors in almost 20 years.



The exodus from U.S. assets may reflect a broader crisis of confidence, with potential spillovers such as higher imported inflation as the dollar weakens.



The drop in the greenback has led other currencies to appreciate against it, especially safe havens such as the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc as well as the euro.



Since the start of the year, the Japanese yen has strengthened over 10% against the greenback, while the Swiss franc and the euro has appreciated about 11%, according to LSEG data.



Aside from the safe havens, other currencies that have strengthened against the dollar this year include the Mexican peso, up 5.5% against the dollar, and the Canadian dollar which has appreciated over 4%. The Polish zloty has strengthened more than 9% while and Russian rouble has appreciated over 22% against the greenback.



Some emerging market currencies, however, have depreciated despite the weakness in the greenback.



The Vietnamese dong and Indonesian rupiah weakened to a record low per U.S. dollar earlier this month. The Turkish lira also hit an all-time low last week. China’s yuan hit a record low against the dollar nearly two weeks back but has since strengthened.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-breathing-room-to-cut-rates"><a></a>Breathing room to cut rates?</h2>



Barring a few exceptions like the Swiss National Bank, a weakening U.S. dollar is a relief to governments and central banks around the world, analysts told CNBC.



“Most central banks would be happy to see 10%-20% declines in the U.S. dollar,” said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive. He added that the dollar strength has been a persistent problem for years and poses a difficulty for countries with hard and soft dollar pegs.



With many emerging market countries having large dollar-denominated debt, a weaker dollar lowers real debt burden. Additionally, a softer greenback and stronger local currency tend to make imports relatively cheaper, lowering inflation and hence allowing central banks the room to cut rates to boost growth.



The recent U.S. dollar sell-off offers more “breathing room” for central banks to cut rates, said Button.&nbsp;



While a stronger local currency might help tame inflation via cheaper imports, it complicates export competitiveness particularly under renewed U.S. tariffs where Asia is exposed as the world’s largest goods producer, said Thomas Rupf, VP Bank’s co-head for Singapore and Asia chief investment officer.



Currency devaluation is likely to be more of an active consideration across emerging markets, particularly in Asia, said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe.



However, these emerging markets and Asian central banks will need to tread a fine line, to avoid capital flight and other risks.



“Emerging markets face high inflation, debt, and capital flight risks, making devaluation dangerous,” said Wael Makarem, financial markets strategists lead at Exness.



Additionally, devaluation could be seen by the U.S. administration as a trade measure which could attract retaliation, he added.



Emerging market economies may be reluctant to cut rates as it can affect the debt burden of domestic households and firms that have borrowed in U.S. dollars, said Fitch Ratings’ director of economics, Alex Muscatelli. A weaker domestic currency can also lead to capital outflows in response to lower interest differentials with the U.S., he added.



For example, Muscatelli does not see Indonesia’s central bank cutting rates too much given the recent currency volatility, but cited that Korea and India may have space for cutting rates.



The European Central Bank took the opportunity offered by declining inflation to cut rates by another 25 basis point at its April meeting. The ECB on Thursday said that “Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis.”



Another example is the Swiss National Bank, which has grappled with a strong franc for much of the past 15 years, observed Button. Exports of goods and services make up over 75% of Switzerland’s GDP and a strong franc makes Swiss goods more expensive abroad.



“If capital continues to flow in, they may have to take drastic measures to devalue,” he said. Investors flood into the franc during times of uncertainties, such as in recent weeks, strengthening the franc.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Central banks are avoiding devaluation — for now</h2>



Devaluing the currency poses the risk of stoking price growth and monetary authorities will be wary of inflation staying above their targets.



The risk of higher inflation arising from currency depreciation as well as tariffs — as countries respond to U.S. levies — are likely to make central banks reluctant to pursue a path of voluntary devaluation, said Wells Fargo’s international economist and FX strategist, Brendan McKenna.



On top of that, while most foreign central banks do theoretically have the bandwidth to weaken their own currency, the likelihood is still low in the current environment, the strategist added.



Whether a country can devalue its currency is influenced by several factors: the size of its FX reserves, exposure to foreign debt, its trade balance, and sensitivity to imported inflation.&nbsp;



“Export-oriented countries with sufficient reserves and lower reliance on foreign debt would have more room to devalue – but even those are likely to tread carefully,” said McKenna.&nbsp;



The broader direction of trade negotiations will be key to how countries choose to act. Aside from China, several countries have displayed a willingness to engage in trade negotiations, and if these talks lead to lower tariffs, then central banks will not be as likely to pursue weaker currencies, he added.



In the current geopolitical climate, devaluation could also invite retaliation and risks of accusations of currency manipulation, said VP Bank’s Rupf.



Though there is still the possibility that trade tensions could lead to more protectionist outcomes, which will drive central banks toward devaluing their currencies.



“But for now, it seems the preferred action is avoiding a currency war that would only add more instability to the local and global economy,” McKenna said.

AA1Dm0ee

As the dollar falters, the world’s central banks tread a tightrope — devalue their currency or not

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South African inflation falls to five-year low in March as fuel, education costs ease

AfCFTA Secretary General Calls for Unified African Trade Policy as Trump Tariffs Hit

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