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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-548676" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Line-up of pumpkins in the Netherlands, on Oct. 27, 2024. Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Inflation in the 20-nation euro zone rose to 2% in October, preliminary figures released by statistics agency Eurostat showed Thursday.



Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a headline figure of 1.9%. The September headline reading was revised down to 1.7% from 1.8% on Oct. 17, below market expectations.



The biggest upward pull in the headline rate came from food, alcohol and tobacco, where price rises accelerated to 2.9% from 2.4%.



Core inflation, which excludes those volatile components along with energy prices, was unchanged at 2.7%, slightly higher than the 2.6% expected. Services inflation — an important gauge of domestic price pressures — also held steady at 3.9%.



The euro was up 0.17% against the U.S. dollar shortly after the release, trading at a two-week high of $1.0873.



The fresh Thursday inflation print is seen as crucial in judging whether the European Central Bank could consider implementing a jumbo half-percentage-point cut in interest rates at its next meeting in December.



The central bank has so far trimmed rates three times this year, making quarter-point increments that altogether took the central bank’s key rate from 4% to 3.25%.



Markets are currently pricing another 25-basis-point reduction in December.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-euro-zone-growth"><a></a>Euro zone growth</h2>



Traders are also considering the latest growth figures for the euro area, which showed better-than-expected 0.4% expansion in the third quarter, even as analysts predicted further weakness ahead.



The ECB said during its October meeting that the process of disinflation was “well on track” and that sluggishness in the euro zone’s economic activity had added to its confidence that inflation will not resurge dramatically.



“Hotter eurozone inflation, stronger growth and record low unemployment wipe out bets for a 50 [basis point] cut,” Kyle Chapman, foreign exchange market analyst at Ballinger Group, said in a note.



Chapman said that, while an uptick in consumer price growth was expected toward the end of the year, services inflation remained sticky.



“A big concern underpinning the risks of inflation undershooting the target was a potential tipping point with the labor market, the surprising resilience of which could be at risk of a sharp unwind in labor hoarding if consumption worsens. That concern is no longer so significant,” Chapman stressed, pointing to this week’s growth and employment figures.



“Back-to-back 25 [basis point] moves are the way to go. The need for below-neutral rates to rescue a contracting eurozone economy is fading from the discussion, and that negates the need to hurry the easing cycle, particularly with services inflation struggling to come unstuck.”

108055459-1730370522435-gettyimages-2181307807-arroyofernandez-collecti241027_npBx9

Euro zone inflation rises to higher-than-expected 2%, weakening case for jumbo rate cut

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-548613" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108054622-1730265200794-gettyimages-2178145462-cfoto-automobi241017_nppCP-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Robots manufacture auto parts at a factory in Ningde, China, on Oct. 17, 2024. Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING — China’s official purchasing managers’ index for October came in at 50.1, in expansionary territory for the first time since April, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Thursday.



The data beat expectations for 49.9, according to a Reuters poll. September’s reading was 49.8. The last time the PMI was above the 50-point line that determines contraction from activity was in April, with a reading of 50.4.



“I expect the economic momentum to improve moderately in Q4 as monetary and fiscal policies [loosen],” Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist, at Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note.



China’s parliament standing committee is scheduled to meet next week, and is widely expected to release details on fiscal stimulus after the gathering ends on Nov. 8.



The sub-index for production came in at 52 for October, while that of new orders was 50. Raw materials inventory ticked up to 48.2, still in contraction territory, along with employment at 48.4, which was mildly better than the prior month.



The statistics bureau’s PMI for non-manufacturing activity rose to 50.2 in October. That was up from 50 in September but below August’s 50.3 print.



The employment portion of the non-manufacturing PMI climbed by 1.1 percentage points to 45.8.



A survey released Wednesday by the U.S.-based China Beige Book of 1,436 Chinese businesses between Oct. 18 and 25 found that manufacturing output improved from a year ago. New domestic and export orders also picked up, with export orders from the U.S. falling less sharply in October.



The Caixin China general manufacturing PMI for October is due out Friday, while the Caixin China general services PMI is scheduled for release Nov. 5.



China’s economic growth has slowed, dragged down by tepid consumer demand and a real estate slump. Exports have been a rare bright spot.



Stocks rallied after a series of high-profile stimulus announcements in the last several weeks, including a meeting led in late September by Chinese President Xi Jinping that called for strengthening fiscal and monetary policy support.

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108052833-1729838789268-gettyimages-2173221937-AA_23092024_1869906-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-547489" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108052833-1729838789268-gettyimages-2173221937-AA_23092024_1869906-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108052833-1729838789268-gettyimages-2173221937-AA_23092024_1869906-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108052833-1729838789268-gettyimages-2173221937-AA_23092024_1869906-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108052833-1729838789268-gettyimages-2173221937-AA_23092024_1869906-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108052833-1729838789268-gettyimages-2173221937-AA_23092024_1869906-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/108052833-1729838789268-gettyimages-2173221937-AA_23092024_1869906.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves makes a speech during the Labour Party Conference that is held at the ACC Liverpool Convention Center in Liverpool, UK on September 23, 2024.  Anadolu | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



LONDON — U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will deliver the government’s hotly awaited debut budget on Wednesday, putting to bed weeks of uncertainty over potential tax hikes and spending cuts.



The fiscal announcement — Labour’s first in almost 15 years — has been the source of much speculation, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer warning of “painful” decisions as his administration seeks to square what it says is a “black hole” in the public finances with its wider pro-growth agenda.



Reeves brought some clarity to that narrative on Thursday, by confirming that she would use her budget to announce a widely anticipated change to the U.K.’s debt rules in a bid to free up billions of pounds for investment. However, she did not specify exactly what the investment rule would change.



“We will measure debt differently. But, of course, we will put guardrails in place,” Reeves told Sky News Thursday, following her initial announcement in the Financial Times.



Reports suggest that the Treasury could target public sector net financial liabilities (PSNFL) in the U.K.’s measure of debt, rather than public sector net debt. The PSNFL measure takes in a wider account of the government’s balance sheet, including financial assets and liabilities, than public sector net debt. The Treasury declined to comment on the proposals.



In a note Friday, Goldman Sachs estimated that the changes could increase the government’s fiscal headroom by around £50 billion ($65 billion). Still, Goldman Sachs noted that the Treasury was unlikely to use all of that added leeway, and that any increase would be phased in gradually “over several years.”



“We think that the Chancellor would be very unlikely to use all the resulting fiscal space and would instead leave a much larger margin of headroom against the debt rule,” Goldman sachs said in the note.



As such, Reeves is still expected to rely heavily on a raft of tax changes to fill what she has described as a £100 billion spending gap ($129.6 billion) over the next five years. Here’s a look at what might change.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-changes-to-expect"><a></a>What changes to expect</h2>



Labour has repeatedly ruled out increases to income tax, National Insurance social security payments, value-added tax (a sales levy) and corporation tax, insisting it would not renege on pledges outlined in its election manifesto.



More recently, however, the government has shifted its narrative to avoiding tax rises for “working people,” suggesting that changes for higher earners and employers could be on the table.



Starmer fanned speculation last week when he said in an interview with Sky News that people who own shares would not fall within his “definition” of working people. The Treasury later clarified that it was possible for a working person to have a small amount of shares.



The government has also failed to rule out potential changes to National Insurance tax on employers’ pension contributions, which would see business owners pay more to employ workers.



Reports suggest that Reeves could extend the freeze on personal income tax thresholds introduced by the former Conservative government. While the policy does not raise headline income tax rates, it is often dubbed a “stealth tax” as it ultimately drags workers into paying more tax as pay rises tip them into higher tax brackets.



Elsewhere, changes to inheritance tax (IHT) and capital gains tax (CGT) remain on the table as the government seeks to reduce wealth imbalances across the country. That comes even as plans to introduce new levies on Britain’s “non-doms” could be watered down amid concerns it would fail to raise revenues and instead spark a wealth exodus.



Analysts have expressed mixed views over the expected measures, noting that Reeves has a fine line to tread in balancing the books. Goldman Sachs estimated in its Friday note that the government could need to raise £25 billion annually to meet its spending targets.



“Our broad message is that Chancellor Reeves will attempt to navigate a tight set of public finances to meet her dual aims of avoiding material real term cuts in non-protected spending and to raise public investment. Tax increases will be needed to help achieve these,” Investec said in a note Thursday.



Duncan Edwards, CEO of BritishAmerican Business, warned the government against going too far with measures that could harm business.



“Raising taxes, making it more expensive to do business here, penalizing investment through raising capital gains tax and so on, looks like a strange approach to delivering that growth agenda,” Edwards told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>UK market jitters</h2>



Reeves has faced criticism for not holding the budget closer to Labour’s July 4 election, with critics saying the delay has cast a cloud of uncertainty over the economy and businesses.



Consumer confidence fell in October to its lowest level since March, when former chancellor Jeremy Hunt delivered his last budget, the fresh GfK showed Friday. Business confidence also slipped to an 11-month low this month, S&amp;P Global flash figures indicated Thursday.



Meanwhile, government borrowing costs have risen sharply as memories of former-Prime Minister Liz Truss’s catastrophic September 2022 “mini-budget” remain close to mind. U.K. bond yields climbed following Reeves’ debt rule announcement Thursday, with 10-year gilt yields hovering near a 16-week high at 4.24%. Still, analysts ruled out the possibility of a similar market meltdown.



“Is this going to be a Liz Truss moment? We don’t think so whatsoever,” Andrzej Szczepaniak, vice president of European economics at Nomura, told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Friday.



“Actually, now the government can carve out investment,” he continued. “That’s actually fairly positive for the U.K. economy. It has a long structural underinvestment situation versus its peers in the G7.”



Such increases to infrastructure investment have been recommended by the International Monetary Fund, which on Thursday raised its growth outlook for the U.K. It now expects the economy to expand 1.1% in 2024, up from its earlier estimate of 0.7%.



“This level of endorsement to these changes will have helped contain bond market reaction and avoid a big strop-out,” Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, wrote in a note Friday.



— CNBC’s Sam Meredith contributed to this report.

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